MistaFlava's CFB Week 5 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2020 College Football Record: 13-19-2 (-81.20 Units)

MistaFlava's 2020 College Football ATS Record: 10-10-2 ATS (-10.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 College Football O/U Record: 2-8 (-68.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 College Football 2nd Half Plays: 1-1 ATS (-3.20 Units)

One of my worst weeks as a handicapper last week but that bodes well for Week 5. I had a week like this back in 2015 and went 8-2 the following week. Not sure I have a complete hang of CFB yet this year but the only way from here is up and looking to make back some of those losses. No more totals for the time being they have absolutely killed me.

1 Units = $100

Hope the entire RX Forum community is doing well and staying safe and let's make a bit of cash!

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Friday, October 2



Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +24 (10 Units)

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have one of the most underrated offenses of the smaller conference schools and I think they can give BYU their biggest test so far in 2020. That would actually be an understatement because BYU are coming off tremendous defensive (and offensive) performances against both Navy and Troy where their defense allowed a grand total of only 10 points. That's not happening tonight. The Bulldogs average 461.5 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.2 yards per play and they are a threat both on the ground (4.5 yards per carry on 172.5 rushing yards per game) and in the air where QB Luke Anthony has completed 58.8% of his passes for 463 passing yards and has thrown a whopping 8 Touchdown Passes and only 1 interception in two games this season. The BYU defense has allowed virtually nothing in the air or on the ground as Navy and Troy managed only 3.3 yards per play but I want to point out that in two games, for all the good things this Cougars defense has done, they have only 1 turnover forced and that was a fumble recovery. No interceptions to go with their 9 sacks. LT's balance on the ground and in the air will allow them to soften this BYU defense for the first time in 2020.

The Brigham Young Cougars come into this game ranked #22 in the Country and they've been impressive in their two wins versus Navy (blowout in Week 1) and against Troy who were supposed to be somewhat efficient on offense. Are these guys the real deal? Only time will tell but this will no doubt be their best and most competitive test of the season. The BYU offense is on absolute fire averaging 51.5 points per game in two games and averaging 623 total yards of offense and 8.3 yards per play. Can the Louisiana Tech defense stop them? Yes they can. Maybe not for an entire game but BYU runs the ball 47.5 times per game and average 247.5 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. Louisiana Tech has been very good against the run allowing only 112 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. Their defense has struggled in the pass game but unlike the BYU defense the Bulldogs have come up with 3 turnovers in two games and also have 5 sacks. BYU QB Zach Wilson should have a field day but again I'm banking on the LTU offense keeping up in this one.

I don't usually back underdogs unless I think they can win straight up but this one is a bit different. Louisiana Tech has the offensive weapons and play calling to stay in this game and give BYU a nightmare of a time. Not a huge fan of so many people being on them but I think it's the right call. The Bulldogs are a tremendous underdog to bet on. They have covered 27 of their last 37 games as an underdog dating back over a decade and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Interesting stat. BYU is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and only 2-7 ATS as a favorite. Having covered the spread last week I expect a bit of a decline in their stock and performance this week. They are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight Friday Night Lights games and interestingly enough they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after passing for 280+ yards in their previous game. I'm going with the underdog.

Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog.


Brigham Young 35, Louisiana Tech 34





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Saturday, October 3



Texas Longhorns -10.5 (10 Units)

The Texas Christian Horned Frogs were on my radar last week in their season and Big 12 opener at home versus Iowa State but it turned into a bit of a dud as they lost by 3 and pushed on the spread. I have to say I was impressed at times but not impressed overall. The offense looked great as they managed 512 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play but they had problems at times finishing drives and they turned the ball over twice (1 interception and 1 fumble). My main concern is that TCU allowed their two quarterbacks to be sacked 6 times in their opener against an okay defense. Through 2 games the Longhorns D has only 2 sacks and have not recovered a fumble but they have 4 interceptions. TCU took a whopping 10 penalties in their opener for 66 penalty yards. I won't be on TCU because they are one dimensional. Their run game was awful last week averaging 2.6 rushing yards and it won't be much better against a Longhorns run D that has allowed 79.5 rushing yards per game and only 2.8 yards per carry. Despite allowing a ton of points (and yards) last week against Texas Tech the Horns D still allows only 5.7 yards per pass attempt and opponents complete only 54.9% of their passes. TCU's offense will be overwhelmed.

The Texas Longhorns did not look good last week in an overtime win against Texas Tech and now they face another Texas rival in TCU. I'm guessing several experts are going to pick TCU to do the same thing as Texas Tech did but I don't buy it. The one thing that is for sure is the Horned Frogs might allow just as many yards and points as Texas Tech did but they won't score as many (56). Through two games this season the Horns offense is on absolute fire averaging a crazy 61 points per game on 582.5 total yards of offense and 7.1 yards per play. They run the ball 40+ times per game and average 211 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. That's a massive problem for a TCU defense that got absolutely gashed by the Iowa State running game last week to the tune of 212 rushing yards and 7.6 yards per carry. That should allow Texas to really control the clock in this one. They also allowed Iowa State to complete 18 of their 23 passes for 211 passing yards and Iowa State QB Brock Purdy had a QB Rating of 169.7. Through 2 games Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has thrown 10 Touchdown passes for 688 passing yards and 9.4 yards per pass attempt. I don't see any scenario where Texas punts in this game.

Like I said before a lot of people expect Texas Christian to play the way Texas Tech did but I think Texas goes with a different approach in this game and they'll probably try to put together long scoring drives to keep their defense fresh. That didn't happen last game. TCU is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games versus a team with a winning record. I went back and looked at the season logs and after allowing 40+ points in a game, Texas is 8-3 ATS their next time out the last 11 times. The Home Team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings and I think Texas brings a new approach this week and dominates on both sides of the ball.

Trend of the Game: Texas is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 40+ points.


Texas 45, Texas Christian 18






more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava........on Lou. Tech. with you........BOL with all your weekend action buddy

appreciate your early thought's.............indy

 

[Incubus]

Thanks for posting your CFB plays here in the forum. It behooves all CFB gamblers to see what you have before placing their wagers. I know I do, so I appreciate what you do here. Keep up the great work!

 

[MistaFlava]

Discouraging start to the week but I'm going to keep going with my plays today and hope for a profit. Way off in some of these games in 2020. It's weird.

 

[NJBlood]

Weird times alone my man. Mlb playoffs i hit 70% every year for over a decade. This weird season I cant get a pulse/read. Keep pluggin cuzzo

 

[MistaFlava]

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Missouri Tigers +12 (10 Units)

Shop around and you shall find the +11.5 or +12 (Caesars + Sports Interaction) because in the SEC you need every point you can get in some of these close games. Went back to some old school handicapping and I have Missouri keeping this within a touchdown. I mean they scored 19 points at Alabama last week and allowed under 40 points. If you follow Nick Saban and his season openers over the years he scored 45+ points almost every single time and wins by 40+ almost every single time. Missouri QB Shawn Robinson came in the second half down 28-3 and led his team 14-10 second half win. That's huge for momentum coming into this game and huge for team morale. Tennessee's defense allowed 5.1 yards per play and were gashed in the air for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Robinson completed 76% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 185 passing yards and a QB Rating of 151.6 versus Alabama's defense. I'm all in on this offense today.

The Tennessee Volunteers should have covered the spread last week but they let South Carolina hang around and that game turned into a PUSH. The Vols offense looked good for the most part of that game but the big time concern is in the fact that the offense was only 1 of 12 on third down conversions and that was the main reason SC stuck around. Missouri's defense struggled on 3rd down against Alabama allowing 64.3% of them to be converted but this is a step down in class here. The Vols ran the ball more than they threw it last week and averaged 4.0 yards per carry but this week they run into a tremendous Missouri run defense that held Alabama to only 111 rushing yards last week on only 3.1 yards per carry and a whopping 36 rushing attempts. Their secondary got torched but they did have two sacks and one fumble recovery and I expect this Missouri defense to again make a difference.

No way should Tennessee be a double digit favorite in this game. I know traditionally Missouri is not a team to bet on and their ATS history the last five years is not great but Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a school with a losing record on the season (Mizzou is 0-1) and the Vols are a pedestrian 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games as a favorite. They have also covered only 7 of their last 24 Home Games overall and I am going with a Missouri team that is on the rise and that looked inspired last week in the second half versus Bama. I like the straight up upset today folks!

Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 Home Games.


Missouri 21, Tennessee 20




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners +21 (10 Units)

The UTSA Roadrunners are 3-0 on the season coming into this game and getting absolutely no respect from oddsmakers which is shocking. I know the Conference USA is weak and the Roadrunners won't be making National Title news anytime soon but their wins Texas State (impressive OT win), Stephen F Austin and Middle Tennessee have them as one of the unlikely 3-0 teams in the Nation. I like both QB's regardless of who plays for UTSA as QB Frank Harris and QB Josh Adkins have combined to throw 4 Touchdown passes and 1 interception and both have a QB Rating above 129.5. The UAB secondary has been very good but this is not where UTSA can win this game and keep this close. So far this year their running game has been very efficient and UAB has allowed 194.7 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. UTSA can really control the pace of this game if they want to.

The UAB Blazers have also played three games this season and I think some have already forgotten that this is the same team that allowed 35 points in their season opener against Central Arkansas. Sure they've cleaned things up a bit but their only really impressive win and game was last week against South Alabama and it turns out a bunch of the players on USA ended up having Covid and won't play their game this week. I think the spread is too big. UAB love to run the ball and average 39 runs per game so far this season averaging 167.7 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. UTSA's run defense has been surprisingly good in 2020 allowing 127 rushing yards per game and only 3.6 yards per carry. The secondary has been torched at times but they have a very aggressive pass rush that has 11 sacks in three games and that also has 4 interceptions. They make plays on defense and should be able to make a few plays on a UAB offense that has already lost three fumbles this season.

UAB won and covered the -12.5 spread on the road at UTSA last season but this year's UTSA team is a lot different and they finally have a quarterback who can move the ball and get this offense going. UTSA is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog dating back to last season. UAB has been a very good home favorite over the years but they are coming off a huge win over South Alabama and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after a win of 20+ points in their previous game. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. UTSA keeps this game close.

Trend of the Game: Texas-San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.


UAB 34, Texas-San Antonio 24





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Boston College Eagles +14.5 (10 Units)

The North Carolina Tar Heels are a good football team but they've only played one game so far this season and that game was a 31-6 win over Syracuse almost one month ago next week! That's right. No games since and that's a long time to be off. If you go back to that game they ended up covering the -24.5 point spread but they were only up 3 points late in the third quarter and really poured it on late to win and cover. I wasn't impressed. Boston College's defense has been good this season and have allowed 131 rushing 3.8 yards per carry. They have allowed some yards in the air so far this season but their opponents are completing only 59.2% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and the D-Line has been great with 7 sacks in two games and 6 turnovers forced (3 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries). North Carolina turned the ball over 3 times in their opener and allowed 2 quarterback sacks. I have my questions about this offense and I will wait until later on this season to back them.

The Boston College Eagles earned this kind of line (two touchdown underdog at home) because of their horrendous performance last week at home versus Texas State where they almost lost but I think this team is more likely to play the way they did in their season opening 26-6 win at Duke. They have a brand new Head Coach in Jeff Hafley this season and Notre Dame QB transfer Phil Jurkovec has been great completing 70.5% of his passes for 510 passing yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 150.4. He's made a few mistakes but he'll make plays that Syracuse's offense could not against this Tar Heels defense. The Orange could barely run the ball against the Heels but BC's will make more of a dent and be more consistent running the ball whether it works or not. In the Cuse game the UNC secondary was very good and the D-Line had 7 sacks. That's concerning for a young and inexperienced Boston College offensive line but as long as Jurkovec limits the turnovers and the defense plays the way it did against Duke, this should be a close game that Boston College can win.

Not playing for 3+ week is just way too long. I'm a fan of teams getting BYE weeks to get healthy but UNC has not played since September 12 now and I expect some rust on both ends of the ball in this one. Conditioning might also be an issue. If you follow Boston College you know that they are good in ACC Conference play going 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Conference games and they are also 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. This is a great spot for them coming off that mediocre effort against Texas State and like I said earlier this game will resemble more the win over Duke on the road. I do have concerns about the offensive line but the defense will make enough plays to keep this close and I think Boston College can pull off the stunner.

Trend of the Game: Boston College is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 ACC Conference games.


Boston College 20, North Carolina 17




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Memphis Tigers +1.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

I know I am contradicting myself when I bet on the Tigers today because I said I was going against UNC for the simple fact that they had not played for close to a month. Well Memphis has not played since their seasons opener on September 5 (so one month ago) and they did not look all that great as a -18 point favorite in that game. The rest of their games were derailed by Covid and here we are. One thing I will say is Memphis is fresh and rested. They are still ranked #25 in the Country coming into this game and an SMU Mustangs team that has been a double digit favorite in every game they have played so far. SMU is allowing 22 points per game this season on 383 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. This Mustangs defense has allowed 29.5 points per game against Texas State and North Texas this season. Memphis is a TOP 25 team so I don't see how the Mustangs defense holds up. Memphis QB Brady White is a star and was tremendous in the opener versus Arkansas State throwing 4 Touchdown passes and completing 73% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt with a QB Rating of 166.8. I think he has a monster game against this defense.

The Southern Methodist Mustangs lost a lot of star power (saw a few of their former player in the NFL in recent games) and that was evident when they barely beat Texas State in their season opener but they have bounced back nicely and gone 2-0 ATS in their last two games. I think this is a big part of the reason why people are backing them here. But how about their defense? It has been awful against FBS opponents and that should be no different in this game. There is no question the offense can play and has been very solid averaging 562 total yards of offense per game and 7.4 yards per play but again how about the defense? In their opener Memphis shot themselves in the foot on quite a few occasions but they still allowed only 5.4 yards per play and it was next to impossible running against this D-Line as Arkansas State ran the ball a whopping 36 times in that game and managed only 3.5 yards per carry. SMU runs the ball 44+ times per game at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry. We have yet to see what happens to them if they can't run the ball. That happens today. The Memphis defense came up with 3 turnovers in the opener and they are always buzzing. That should cause all sorts of issues for SMU and I don't think the Mustangs can keep up.

This game will come down to who can score the most and having been rested for so long I'm going to say it will be Memphis. The offense was not the issue in the opener. They should have covered the spread against Arkansas State but their 12 penalties killed them and allowed the Red Wolves to sneak a back door cover. They've have 4 weeks to clean all of that up and I don't think we see a repeat of the opener. Memphis comes into this game 11-5 ATS in their last 16 AAC Conference Games and although they have not been good as an underdog in the past, the offense showed me what I needed to see in the opener and the Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they accumulate 450+ total yards. SMU is only 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall dating back to 2019. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to SMU and have covered the spread in six straight versus the Mustangs. This is my BIG PLAY OF THE DAY!

Trend of the Game: Memphis is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.


Memphis 44, Southern Methodist 19




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Mississippi Rebels +7 (10 Units)

The Mississippi Rebels looked good to start their game in the swamp last week and for a while it looked like Lane Kiffin and company would be able to keep up with the Gators but what I don't understand is why play with so much tempo when your defense can't stop anyone? As fast as Mississippi was scoring with their new offensive coordinator from Central Florida, they weren't letting their defense take a break and it cost them. Having said that, the offenses did put up an impressive 613 total yards of offense on 7.9 yards per play against the Gators and QB Matt Corral was on fire in this new offense throwing 3 touchdown passes and completing 71% of his passes for 12.7 yards per pass attempt. Kentucky's defense was supposed to be a lot better than it showed last week but the secondary is a problem. Auburn carved them up for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and they managed only 1 sack and forced 0 turnovers. That's not going to work against this high flying Ole Miss offense. The Rebels keep up and slow down just a bit in this one.

The Kentucky Wildcats were one of the favorite underdogs on the board last week but they could never get going against a very good Auburn team and they ended up not covering the spread. Most would expect a bounce back spot here for the Wildcats but I just don't see it. I know the Rebels defense is terrible and got absolutely destroyed by Florida on almost every possession but again that was more the result of the offense playing too fast and not letting their D adjust. The Kentucky offense against Auburn was concerning. They managed only 384 total yards of offense on only 4.9 yards per play. The running game never got going as they ran for 145 total yards but only 3.6 yards per carry. Last week the Ole Miss defense was gashed for 6.8 yards per carry and 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The script of this game is a bit different. Kentucky believes they can play slow and win but the Rebels offense can strike way too fast and I think Ole Miss does a better job on defense in this game.

These two teams disappointed last week so someone has to bounce back right and someone is an imposter. I was shocked by how well Auburn QB Bo Nix played against this Kentucky secondary and that's a big concern for Kentucky backers coming into this game because Lane Kiffin and his OC are going to pull all the stops in this game. Despite not covering the spread last week Ole Miss is still 6-2 ATS in their last eight games dating back to last season and all of them against SEC Conference opponents. Kentucky was a tremendous Home Team in 2019 and have been very good at home over the last two seasons but they are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a losing record on the season and I am going to back the underdog in this game. Should be a close game that comes down to the final drive.

Trend of the Game: Mississippi is 6-2 ATS in their last eight SEC Conference games.


Mississippi 35, Kentucky 28




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Adding...


Air Force Falcons +6.5 (10 Units)





more to come...

 

[varkeyboy]

NDSU...yuck.