MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 12-16-1 ATS (-31.30 Units) 43%
I did hit some big plays last week but also came up with a backup plan should my performance once again reach mediocre levels. I made some picks on the side using a simple (a) to (b) formula mixed with opening line judgment, weather, injuries and overall intangibles. The results were outstanding with a 6-0 ATS performance (on the side backup picks) in CFB and 4-1 ATS in NFL using the exact same capping method. So back to my old capping style I go this week.
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I am bound to catch fire and honestly I can't wait for that to happen, this stuff is getting old (slow starts). Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, September 25
Oregon State Beavers +24.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Southern California Trojans have had an entire week off to think about their blowout win over Ohio State on National Television and I have been debating all week as to whether that is a good thing or whether that is a bad thing. I have concluded that because Pete Carroll is the head coach around here it was a good thing but I have also concluded that because the Trojans have Oregon next week it is probably a bad thing. Let's take a quick look at what USC has done the three times they have come to Corvallis under Pete Caroll. In 2000 (his rookie season as head coach), the Trojans walked into this place -6.5 favorites and lost that game 31-21. In 2004 the Trojans walked into this place as -18 point favorites and won the game 28-20. In 2006 the Trojans came yet again, this time as -10.5 favorites in the game and were handed a shocking 33-31 loss that ended their hopes of playing for National Title game. So the bottom line is that Peter Carroll is 0-3 ATS in three career visits to Corvallis with the Trojans and that is definitely a concern if you ask me. This game has no resemblance whatsoever to USC's huge 52-7 road and season opening win over Virginia as the Cavaliers are a lot worse than Oregon State so get that out of your heads. The Trojans have had it too easy so far this season and something is bound to go a bit wrong. Coming off a huge win I think they have problems in this one. USC comes into this game averaging a whopping 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 451.5 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play in those games. That's quite impressive for sure and on paper they should shred apart this Oregon State defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game this season even though they have allowed only 322.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 5.2 yards per play in those games. The game is going to be won or lost on the ground for USC and I say that because the Beavers run defense has been their weak spot. The Trojans currently average 189.5 rushing yards per game on the season with 5.3 yards per carry while Oregon State has had problems stopping opponents this season allowing 168.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry in those games. Having said that, USC is too stubborn and too aggressive to pass all game which is actually a good thing for us Beaver backers. Reason for that is that USC QB Mark Sanchez has completed 68.3% of his passes this season for 510 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions which is not all that bad. However, Oregon State has allowed their opponents this season to complete only 50.6% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt with a nice 4 sacks on the season and 3 interceptions to go along with those. Sanchez does have a tendency to force throws that are not there and CB Brandon Hughes is not going to let him get away with that in this one. The Beavers defense is not that experienced but their secondary is ranked 3rd in the PAC 10 by experts sitting behind only USC and Oregon which is a good sign. I know the Trojans and Pete Carroll teams have never been known to turn the ball over much which is why it's importing for Oregon State to be aggressive in this one and force as many loose balls as possible. The Beavers have already forced 5 fumbles on the season but have recovered only 1 of those fumbles and they need to continuously wrap up and strip in this game to be successful. The Trojans are an explosive team there is no doubt about that but like I mentioned before although lacking experience big time, this defense has not played as bad as the numbers indicate and the proof of that lies in the fact that they have allowed only 322.0 total yards of offense per game. Most people see the 29.3 points allowed per game and freak out. The Beavers are going to make some big plays on the defensive end of things in this game, just watch.
The Oregon State Beavers know what they have to do to win this game and that is score a ton of points. Or not? I mean if some of you anticipate a sleepy or overconfident performance by USC the way I anticipate that to happen, you might as well not worry about the points because this game could remain a lot lower scoring than many people think despite the inexperienced Oregon State defense. With the loss of QB Sean Canfield for a month at the beginning of the season a lot of questions were being asked about this team and fans expected the worst. Well they got the worst they could get with a season opening loss to Stanford as -2.5 road favorites and things only got worse the week after that in a 45-14 loss to Penn State at Penn State for those of you wondering. Oregon State quickly got back on track two weeks ago in a home game against Hawaii as they blew away the Island boys 45-7 as -14 point favorites in Corvallis. I know this stadium seats only 42 000 or something like that but this is one of the loudest and most obnoxious places to play in college football and the fact that USC is 0-3 ATS in their last three games here just shows you how effective these fans can really be. The last time the Beavers hosted a ranked opponent was that 33-31 win over #3 USC back in 2006 and the fans have waited long enough for another one to come strolling through. Oregon State comes into this game averaging a very decent 29.0 points per game considering they opened the season with 2 road games. In those games they managed to average 439.0 total yards of offense per game and managed to get a very decent 5.5 yards per play in those games. We all know USC has one of the top defensive units in college football but they have always struggled in this stadium and I don't quite know why. This season the Trojans have allowed only 5.0 points per game and allowed a crazy 197.0 total yards of offense per game on only 3.3 yards per play. On the ground, Oregon State needs to be more effective with the loss of Yvenson Bernard this season as they have managed only 131.7 total rushing yards per game and in those games they average a mediocre 3.6 yards per carry (they averaged 4.2 last season). USC has yet to face a true running back this season as Beanie Wells missed them two weeks ago so it's understandable that they have allowed only 51.5 rushing yards per game and have held opponents to only 1.9 yards per carry in those games. With that being said, the Beavers need to find a way to make some big plays downfield and all that starts with QB Kyle Moevao who had 4 career starts prior to this season. Moevao has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for a very impressive 922 passing yards on the year with 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. As much as he takes risks, he does throw INT's. This USC defense has been tremendous and they have one of the best pass defenses in the Nation but opponents have managed to complete 60.0% of their passes against them this season for 4.5 yards per pass attempt which means the Trojans like to cover the deep plays and leave room for patient teams to succeed. By patient I mean a team that is willing to continue running the ball or throwing to check down receivers all game if that is what is taken to win. USC already has 7 sacks on the season and their pass rush is fierce which is why I like the Beavers offensive line in this one having allowed only 3 sacks in 3 games this season. They also have 3 interceptions (the defense that is) in their two games this season and Moevao needs to calm himself down for this game. He tends to get a little bit too excited. Mike Riley knows his team can do a lot better that Ohio State on the offensive side of things and believe me when I say he won't backdown from trying every play possible in his playbook. Riley has 6 career wins versus teams in the TOP 25 and he has 2 career wins versus teams in the TOP 10 during his career at Oregon State (8th season as head coach of Oregon State with a break between 1998 and 2003). The Trojans defense is ball hungry and they come after you from all angles. They have already recovered a whopping 4 fumbles on the season but what bettors need to know is they forced only 1 of those fumbles and the other were self inflicted wounds. Oregon State has the worst habit of starting off slow this season but that should change tonight with the crazy atmosphere and the fans going nuts. I like Oregon State to keep this game close and even if they can't win the game, expect them to find a way to bother the Trojans all night long.
PETE CARROLL IS 0-3 ATS in Corvallis, Oregon in three career games with Souther California. If that wasn't bad enough, we have an ORANGE OUT tonight which means the crowd will be dressed in nothing but orange and that quite the intimidating scene as we saw in Colorado last week. I don't know what the % is exactly but who else has noticed that underdogs are hitting left and right in televised weekday games and it seems like the public (including myself) has been sucked in to a number of lousy wagers on underachieving teams like West Virginia, Kansas State and others in past weeks (Rutgers ring a bell for you guys?). Things have gone a little too well for USC and this is the perfect spot for them to get a little scare like they did in 2006 (that wasn't a scare, it was a season shattering loss for the Trojans) and this crowd knows what they have to do to make it happen again. VERY DANGEROUS spot for the Trojans according to my imbalance formula and history has it that they will struggle here. Pete Carroll is one of the best BYE WEEK coaches in college and pro football and yes USC is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off the bye week but Carroll has mentioned that he hates playing on turf and it has shown as his team is 1-4 ATS in their last five turf games. To counter that, Mike Riley is also an outstanding coach coming off a bye week (5-0 ATS in their last five) and this Beavers team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on the green turf. The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and I am going to hope that trend continues. ORANGE TIME!
Trend of the Game: USC is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on artificial turf.
Oregon State 24, Southern California 23
Friday, September 26
Connecticut Huskies +3.5 (5 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies went from a 12+ point favorite in last Friday Night's game against Baylor to a +3.5 point underdog in their first Big East road game of the season. Does that even make any sense? I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing that Connecticut has not had a week off yet to rest and prepare for a tough Big East schedule that starts tonight but I am not too concerned because they are well coached. I know a lot of you, and I am one of those people, thought for sure the Huskies would have no problems knocking off a pesky Baylor team at home last Friday as -13 point favorites but as well all witnessed the Huskies looked like complete crap and they ended up winning that game by only 3 points. Other than that, this team is still very much alive in talks for a Big East Conference crown win because they are 4-0 SU (1-2 ATS in those games) so far this season with wins over Hofstra, Temple, Virginia and of course Baylor last week. I don't know that I can call this team successful over the years as road underdogs because they have not been known for their huge road upsets but a win here would not really be an upset. The two times the Huskies played in this stadium they lost 48-17 in 2006 and they lost 41-22 in 2000. Having said that they are 3-1 ATS all-time versus Louisville so my confidence is high. The Huskies come into this game averaging 30.8 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 421.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging 5.9 yards per play in those games. Louisville's defense has yet to be really tested this season and they have allowed 22.0 points per game on the year and allowed opponents to average 243.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play. This UConn team is loaded with returning starters (17 of them to be exact) so you know they have experience on both sides of the ball. On the ground, the Huskies are one of the top teams in the Nation having rushed for 279.5 rushing yards per game and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in those games. Louisville has been very good defensively with their new DC from Michigan as they have allowed only 42.0 rushing yards per game this season on 1.9 yards per carry but they have yet to face a decent back this season and RB Donal Brown II is about to show them what they have missed (he has 718 rushing yards on the season with 10 rushing touchdowns). In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen has completed 58.8% of his passes this season for 519 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions (wtf???). Lorenzen threw 6 interceptions all of last season and he has already reached that number for 2008 which is a bit strange despite his 223 rushing yards on the season for 6.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals defense has yet to be really tested through the air as they have managed to hold opponents to a 54.7% pass completion rate for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. Now I have noticed that Louisville's defense has only been effective when they are able to pressure opposing QB's and that has not been happening in some of their games. They have only 2 sacks in their three games this season and that's not good because Lorenzen and the Huskies are very elusive and the more time you give them the more they burn you with their ground attack. Louisville does have 4 interceptions in three games this season and I don't think coach Edsall is going to backdown from letting his QB loose in the passing game knowing that Lorenzen did throw for 13 touchdowns last season and that he had a 26-3 TD/INT ratio in Junior College. Surprisingly enough turnovers on the ground have not been a problem for this Huskies team as they have lost only 3 fumbles in 4 games. Louisville is going to be aggressive under their new DC and they have already recovered 4 fumbles in three games but having said that, the Huskies are one of the most disciplined bunches in the Big East Conference having taken only 3.5 penalties per game this season for 34.2 penalty yards per game. The key here is going to be to keep the Louisville offense off the field as much as possible to shut the crowd up and to ensure a win in the time of possession column which should in turn lead to a win in the ATS and SU columns as well. I like the matchups Connecticut have to offer here and will back them to win in another close games.
The Louisville Cardinals were completely hated by the public just one week ago when they came into their game against Kansas State as +5.5 points home underdogs having not lost a spread cover as home dogs in more than years. Still, almost 70% of the public was on Kansas State to win and cover that game and boy did Louisville just show them with a 38-29 win that Steve Kragthorpe so badly needed. Can someone please explain to me though how one team goes from a 30% public backing one week as a home underdog in a stadium they rarely lose in to being a 63% public backed favorite this week against an opponent they lost to last season. So all you haters who saw this team lost 27-2 to Kentucky at home in their season opener have all gone away? Cmon guys that doesn't make sense because Kansas State still looked like complete garbage last week, they still made a game of it against the Cardinals and now you are telling that this team is going to show up again for an ever bigger game this week? Well they do have momentum on their side I have to admit but it pretty much ends there for me. You can say Louisville got screwed by that Punt Return TD that was called back because in the end it did change the outcome of the game and it was a blown call but nobody wants to hear about that anymore. Louisville comes into this game averaging 30.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 411.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. UConn has been very solid on the defensive end of things despite their minor slip against Baylor a week ago tonight but I am not concerned because on the season they have managed to allow only 12.5 points per game and in those games they have allowed only 266.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games which is impressive. On the ground, it looks like Louisville found their man in RB Victor Anderson as he has led this team to 196.7 rushing yards per game on the season and 4.6 yards per carry in those games but I don't expect things to come as easy tonight as UConn has managed to allow only 92.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.1 yards per carry and they are run-tested having been run on 29.8 times per game this season. In the air, QB Hunter Cantwell has completed only 57.6% of his passes this season for 629 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Cantwell needs to be much better if he wants to win this game. I say that because the Huskies defense has been solid in the air as well as on the ground and opponents have managed to complete only 56.3% of their passes against them this season for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. I have some serious doubts about the Louisville offensive line because they have allowed 6 sacks on the season and Connecticut is going to come after Cantwell with everything they have. The Huskies already have a whopping 10 sacks in four games this season and if the line can't protect Cantwell, he is going to make some big time mistakes in this game. He has thrown three interceptions on the season and has to go up against a defense has ball hawking tendencies and that has already picked off 6 passes this season. The Cardinals take way too many penalties for my liking as they average almost double the amount of penalty yards per game than UConn does and I just don't trust this team for more than one week. I think the offense is going to have a tough time getting big plays the way they did last week against an in-conference defense like UConn's and if anything, it will be the Cardinals who have to come from behind and find a way to win this game. The Huskies defense makes too many big plays and I see them continuing that trend in this game.
We all remember the thrilling finish to last season's game between these two schools and I read somewhere this week that several Connecticut players were sick and tired of hearing about how they should have lost that game had it not been for a lucky interception with :15 left on the clock. I don't care what anyone says about either team in this one. Someone needs to explain to me when the hell the Louisville Cardinals became such a public darling considering they are not much better or different than last season's team and considering they are only a few plays away from screwing everyone out of their money yet once again. What you have to understand is that going into last week's game against Kansas State, the Cardinals had been underdogs at home only twice in the last 10 years and had gone 2-0 ATS in those games. Having said that, they are only 1-5 ATS as a home favorite under Steve Kragthorpe which makes me think he allows overconfidence. Connecticut has looked nothing more than mediocre in road games the last few seasons but I do like the fact that they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big East Conference games. Despite the win and cover last Friday Night, Louisville is still only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and this is a very bad matchup for these guys. The Huskies are better defensively and their ground attack should control the most part of this game.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big East Conference games.
Connecticut 35, Louisville 22
Saturday, September 27
Ohio State Buckeyes -18 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have turned quite the corner since their 1-11 SU finish last season and that's in large part thanks to new head coach Tim Brewster who has a good recruiting class of young players on the rise and who is getting the most out of the guys he has for now. You know when a team is not all that talented but they are well coached and things workout anyways? Well this is one of those teams and I will have no problems betting on them a few times this season. Having said that, this is not of those times because by no means do I trust these guys to walk into a place like the Horseshoe and pull off a win. Minnesota is off to an impressive 4-0 SU start after winning only one game all of last season and they are 2-1 ATS in those games with wins over Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State and Florida Atlantic. Can anyone name me more than one players from all four teams combined? Thought so. The point here is that Minnesota does not know what they are in for. The Golden Gophers are 1-17 SU lifetime playing in Columbus and they are 2-15 SU in their last 17 Big Ten Conference road openers which is pathetic. This team has had it way too easy so far this season which is why I don't see them being well prepared for a team like Ohio State having not seen a defense like this and having not played in this kind of atmosphere in a long time. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 36.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 403.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Having said that, they have not faced a Buckeyes defense like this as Ohio State has allowed only 14.8 points per game this season and they have allowed only 247.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.3 yards per play which should be a problem for the Gophers. On the ground, Minnesota has rushed for 162.0 yards per game this season and average 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Ohio State has faced some good teams up until now and they have allowed only 98.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry. That should force the Gophers to move to their aerial attack where QB Adam Weber is now in his second season with the team and has completed 71.8% of his passes for 967 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Some impressive numbers but who has he faced? Last season he threw a whopping 19 interceptions which leads me to believe he is due. Ohio State's defense is ready to deliver his INT baby. The Buckeyes don't have many high pressure guys up front this season but their secondary is nasty and they already have 7 interceptions in only four games on the year. Ohio State has allowed opponents to complete only 57.6% of their passes this season for 4.8 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Buckeyes can keep some coverage packages on the Minnesota WR, they are going to make some big plays in this game. The Golden Gophers have been pretty good holding onto the ball so far this season losing only one fumble all year. The Buckeyes are very solid tacklers who rarely go for ball strips which is a good thing here because if they can minimize Minnesota yardage on first and second downs, I really like this defenses chances on third and long against a Sophomore QB playing his first game in the Horseshoe. You can talk all day about guys like LB James Laurinaitis or CB Malcolm Jenkins (I predict a pick six in this game) but the real X-Factor for me has been CB Chimdi Chekwa. Opposing offenses have picked on him all season and he has arguably been their best defensive back when it comes to pure coverage and tough tackling. Minnesota will have some success on the ground and in the air this season but it won't come at the expense of the Buckeyes who should have their best defensive performance of the season right here. I think the Gophers spend the most part of the day turning the ball over and playing defense against an Ohio State team that finally has their 2008 coming out party.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have screwed me over (on them or against them) for the last three seasons now until last week's ATS loss to Troy (I was on the Trojans for 25 units and a huge week for me). I just have good and bad feelings about this team all the time which is why my fundamentals are a little bit special when it comes to capping their games. Having said that, do you not all feel like Ohio State is about to have one of those huge breakout games sometime soon? Do you not all feel like it is going to come at the expense of this Minnesota team that has probably overachieved all season to this point? I have to mention that Ohio State has always looked mediocre early in seasons until it comes time for Big Ten play. What I mean by that is that the Buckeyes are 13-2 SU in their last 15 Big Ten Conference opening games and they have won the last three by an average of 33 points per game (do you still fell comfortable if you like the Gophers here or what?). Ohio State has more than dominated this series for a very long time now as they are 17-1 SU lifetime versus Minnesota and I don't see the party stopping here. Ohio State looked like shit against Ohio and lost ATS, they looked even more horrendous against USC and got blown out of the water (needless to say ATS wise as well) and they are coming off that game against Troy where they looked pedestrian for three quarters before turning up the heat in the fourth and pulling away late in another ATS loss. So is this the big game? I think so. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 25.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 320.8 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play which has to come very close to being the lowest averages in college football when it comes to powerhouse programs like this one. Having said that I think they finally have a set offense. Minnesota has allowed 17.5 points per game this season and they have allowed those points by also allowing 354.8 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games (again they faced nobody of any significance). RB Beanie Wells is back and he should really bring a presence to a group that has rushed for 163.5 yards per game this season and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. The Gophers have yet to face a solid running attack and they have allowed only 109.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. Expect that to fall today. In the air, QB Tyrelle Pryor is finally comfortable knowing he has this starting job for the rest of the season until he falters. Pryor looked good but shaky at times last week but I expect big things from him this week. He has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for 226 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Minnesota's defense has not seen a mobile QB like this all season long and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 53.6% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. What I think is going to happen here is that Minnesota is going to over-focus on either Tyrelle Pryor or Beanie Wells causing the other to have a huge game and make big plays. The offensive line has been an issue for the Buckeyes as their QB's have been sacked a whopping 9 times already in four games but Minnesota does not have a pass rush to speak of and I don't see them generating any type of pressure up front in this game as they have a whopping 3 sacks in four games this season. They have however intercepted 8 passes already on the season which is impressive but I think the Buckeyes are going to focus on the ground attack and in turn launch some bombs downfield when the Gophers least expect it. Should be fun. Ohio State has fumbled the ball only two times this season and they have not really had turnover issues apart from the USC game but part of that was Boeckman and his pedestrian ways. Neither one of these teams takes a lot of penalties because they are well coached and I don't see that being a factor. Ohio State should have no problems running both Pryor and Wells on misdirection packages and I think as long as the defense can get them the ball back on more than one occasion with good field position, this offense should have their best offensive performance versus a I-A school this season. I really like the Buckeyes to win this game big guys. HUGE!
What people are going to ask in this game is why is this game any different than the Troy game last weekend where Ohio State was a -21 favorite and they failed to cover the spread. What gives with the -18 against an in-conference opponent that is a perfect 4-0 SU on the season and that is ranked much higher than Troy in most people's eyes. I will tell you what's going on here. This is QB Terelle Pryor's second official start and the nerves are gone, the experience is setting in. RB Beanie Wells makes his triumphant return to the lineup for the Buckeyes and although he won't run all over the Minnesota defense, his presence will be enough to lure defenders on some inside cheats and that will leave the door wide open for Pryor to run around all afternoon. You also have to understand that being at 0-3 ATS on the season, the Buckeyes are due big time for a WOW PERFORMANCE and I expect that performance right here and right now. Minnesota has been somewhat of a Big Ten meets ATS machine the last few seasons going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten Conference games. However, only one team has actually been a bit better than that and that would be Ohio State who is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Big Ten Conference games which is another indication that they are going to win this game large. Ohio State is due for a big breakout game, Beanie Wells is back and the spot is right. PLAY OF THE MONTH!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Big Ten Conference games.
Ohio State 45, Minnesota 10
Michigan Wolverines +6.5 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers know they need to show up for this game to have any kind of credibility and they know that this game could make or break their season. Normally most would not be concerned about betting on the Badgers against a conference opponent that is rebuilding and that has really struggled but this is not one of those cases. Actually yes it is but what I mean is that there is rivalry involved all over the place and you cannot replace some intangibles with variables that do not respect straight up facts about football. Okay so you're still confused. What I mean by that is that the home team has won 6 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the four times where the road team has won, three of those times it was Michigan winning on the road. Wisconsin has not won a game in the BIG HOUSE since the 1994 season and I cannot believe so many people like them here in this spot. The Badgers have played some good football and yes they did beat Marshall 51-14 and they did just beat Fresno State 13-10 as -2 point favorites but can you honestly say they looked good in that game. The Badgers had a week off to prepare for this game and they are 2-1 ATS on the season. For a team that has beaten Michigan on the road only once since 1965, I don't think they deserve the line they have and I still don't trust them at the QB spot to win big games like this one. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 34.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 423.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.2 yards per play in those games. Impressive stuff for sure but will it be enough? Michigan's defense is taking a few steps back this season as they work in a new Defensive Coordinator and have allowed 22.0 points per game so far this season. Having said that they have allowed their opponents to gain only 284.3 total yards of offense per game on only 4.2 yards per play so I give them a nice chance in this game. On the ground, as long as you can stop RB PJ Hill and stop his size and his huge runs, the rest just gets easier. Hill actually is the offense and he has led them to 238.7 rushing yards per game this season which has come on 5.0 yards per carry. PJ HILL are you ready for the Michigan defensive line or what? The only way to beat the Wolverines is in the air as they have allowed only 65.3 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 1.8 yards per carry in those games. WOW! In the air, QB Allan Evridge left the Fresno State game with some serious cramping in his legs and he never returned. He has completed 60.0% of his passes on the year for 526 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception. I for some reason don't trust Evridge at all playing in a big road game in-conference. The Wolverines defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.8% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Wisconsin runs the ball on average 47.3 times per game this season which would explain why Evridge has not thrown many interceptions and why he has rarely been sacked. The Michigan defense is averaging at least one interception per game this year and they have some dangerous guys in their secondary. With a lot of running comes a lot of chances to force fumbles, something Michigan has to do if they want a chance to win this game. Wisconsin runs a lot and they have had problems holding onto the ball. The Badgers have fumbled 6 times in three games and have been lucky enough to recover 3 of those fumbles. I have to mention that I think Michigan is going to come out pounding away on ball carriers and receivers in this game trying to force interceptions and trying to strip the ball from ball carriers. Should the succeed, that would tremendously help this hapless offense. We all know the Badgers are going to run, run and run some more but the question here is will the Badgers have the confidence to let Evridge pass in big down situations in the Big House? I don't think so. Evridge was not good in his 7 career starts with Kansas State throwing 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and I have yet to see anything special about this kid. Not this week Wisconsin and not this year for the rivalry.
The Michigan Wolverines are re-building but too many people are having a tough time understanding how and why a big name program like this could have to re-build. I will make it nice and simple for you guys. Lloyd Carr is gone, Rich Rodriguez is in and things are going to be done the right way around here, the way they were done at West Virginia and the way all the great coaches do it...from scratch. Rodriguez has a direct impact on the spread in this game because he is a good coach and good coaches make a difference on young and inexperienced teams like this Wolverines squad. The game against Wisconsin in 2007 was ugly and it was a blowout loss for Michigan but they were without QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart for the most part and now they are back for revenge in this game. I cannot explain to you how important it is to know that Michigan is 25-1 SU in their last 26 Big Ten Conference openers and it makes me wonder how anyone could really go against them in this spot. Michigan opened their season against a very good Utah team at lost 25-23 at home as a -3 point favorite. They followed that up with a win over Miami Ohio and then a pathetic 35-17 road loss at Notre Dame was as +1 point underdogs. So what the hell should we expect here? Michigan was a home underdog against Penn State last season and they beat them 14-9. So don't think they can't do that again. Michigan comes into this game averaging 18.7 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on only 290.7 total yards of offense per game this season and 4.7 yards per play in those games. Not very good. Wisconsin has played some tough defense all season long and they have allowed only 13.7 points per game this season and have done that by also allowing only 318.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground is where Michigan really needs to find someone who can lead this offense as they have struggled and averaged only 124.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry. RB Sam McGuffie has been solid but he is true freshman and it could be time to give experienced RB Brandon Minor a shot at leading the offense. Either way I like what some of these young guys look like and Rodriguez would love to get them going for good. Wisconsin has allowed 87.7 rushing yards per game this season and they have allowed those on 3.1 yards per carry which is decent but not great. I think Michigan has a real chance to run all over Wisconsin here and expose some weaknesses. In the air, QB Steven Threet is a redshirt freshman and has completed 54.5% of his passes this season for 307 passing yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions which leads me to believe he gets the nod over Nick Sheridan. Wisconsin is beatable through the air as well just to let you all know as their opponents this season have completed 55.3% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. With the great protection the Michigan QB's will get up front (they have not been sacked a single time this season to this point), I think Threet is going to have enough time to make some big plays happen downfield in this game. Sure Wisconsin has 5 sacks in three games but without pressure they are not the same defense and they cannot feed off the 4 interceptions they have enjoyed in the first three games of the season. The big problem for Michigan this season has been the youth and the tendency to turn the ball over on unforced plays. They have lost a total of 6 fumbles in three games this season and none of those fumbles have been directly forced by their opponents. They have all been mistakes that could have been avoided and that will be avoided after a week off of hardcore drills and working with the football. Wisconsin has recovered only 2 fumbles in their three games this season anyways so it is not a big concern that Michigan has issues with the ball. What I see happening in this game is a healthy dose of freshman RB's being thrown right into the fire and at the Wisconsin defense, something they might not expect knowing how young these guys are. I then see Threet making the big plays that matter most in this game when the game is on the line. He will have great protection in this game and should have a solid outing in his Big Ten Conference debut. I like Michigan here.
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU ALL THINKING PUBLIC SHEEP? Rich Rodriguez is not that bad of a coach that he is going to let a game like this just go to shit like that. Rodriguez has the right group of guys here to make this happen whether you think they have played well this season or not. Almost 70% of the public is backing Wisconsin to win this game by at least a touchdown but do you not see what Vegas is doing here? They have set the line that has cappers foaming at the mouth for a less than a touchdown type of price in a game they see as a blowout win. Can you please tell me the last time you saw such a line in this series? I have Michigan down as a TOP 40 team in the Country regardless of their re-building process and I couldn't believe this line when I first saw it. The word on Wisconsin is that they have always been good coming off a bye week and that's true as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye week. However, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win the game before and they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight Big Ten Conference games. The Badgers have been horrendous on the road going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games away from home. Believe it or not, Michigan has been very good in conference play and doubting them is not wise as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 Big Ten Conference games. I really like Michigan to win this game or lose on a late field goal.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 25-1 SU in their last 26 Big Ten Conference openers.
Michigan 23, Wisconsin 17
Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 (5 Units)
The Alabama Crimson Tide are sure as hell looking like the big surprise team coming out of the SEC Conference this season (there seems to be one of these each and every season) and I am going to ride them while they are hot. My initial thoughts on this team was that I was going to wait things out and bet them on games I could see ending with a late field goal or some overtime action. Well this is one of those games and I just don't understand how they came up with these odds. I am a big fan of Nick Saban's coaching style and always have been. I think he is one of the most effective guys in the business when it comes to teaching out of synch programs with talent how to unite and play together as a football team. He has a great recruiting class of freshman to work with this season and most of you have probably noticed their immediate impact on this team. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU this season with a 3-1 ATS record in those games with wins over Clemson, Tulane, Arkansas and Western Kentucky. The only blemish in their ATS record came against Tulane, a game they obviously decided to take it easy in considering they were coming off a huge and hyped game against Clemson the week before and could not afford to approach a meaningless game the same way. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 36.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 387.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games which is quite decent. Georgia has one of the top defenses in the NCAA this season and it has shown on quite a few occasions this season. They have allowed only 13.5 points per game on the season and in those games have held their opponents to 275.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play which is not that bad at all. I don't know that Georgia has seen a rushing attack like the one of Alabama this season as the Crimson Tide come into this game averaging a whopping 236.8 rushing yards per game this season on an even more whopping 5.9 yards per carry in those games. Georgia is tough up the middle and they have allowed only 45.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.0 yards per carry but please tell me what decent RB they have faced? RB Glen Coffee has been outstanding rushing for 404 yards on 8.6 yards per pass attempted and 2 TD's. He is complimented by RB Mark Ingram who is at 4 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has completed 59.6% of his passes for 542 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. He is going to have to be alert in this game because the Georgia defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 56.8% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass this season. As good as that sounds it could be better and Parker Wilson could have some success in this game. He has been sacked 5 times in four games which is not bad but he will have to move quickly in this one as Georgia has 6 sacks in their four games and their pass rushing is gaining some momentum. We all know the goal for this Georgia defense is going to be to stop the run first and pass second which is where Parker Wilson really needs to step up. The Bulldogs will more likely than not disrespect Saban's ability to have his guys move the ball through the air and on the plays that he does, the Tide have to make him pay. I think as much Alabama runs the ball, they need to pass effectively at the same time and assure that they are not stuck in 3rd and long situations all night long. Alabama has been solid when it comes to holding onto the ball which in part is why they are having so much success this season. They have lost only 2 fumbles in four games and holding onto the ball is going to be critical tonight. Saban has this group of kids on a nice tight leash, they love playing for him and it shows as they average only 4.0 penalties per game this season for 29.5 penalty yards per game. Discipline is everything in SEC matchups and if this game comes down to the final drive, it could be that one penalty or non-penalty that makes all the difference in the outcome. Alabama won't shine in this game but they'll so enough to win or lose on a late field goal.
The Georgia Bulldogs are considered the only team with a chance to beat the Florida Gators and knock them out of National Title Contention...so the experts say. Well that is going to have to wait until November 1 and there is no point of talking about that game right now. Having said that, the game against the Gators and all other games up until that day will have aboslutely no meaning unless Georgia can knockoff the Alabama Crimson Tide here and ensure they keep their perfect record. The last time Georgia hosted Alabama the game wasn't even close and the Bulldogs ended up on top 37-23 as -12.5 favorites (that was two years ago). However, if you go back a bit deeper than that, Alabama had a lot of success when visiting the Bulldogs as they were here in 1995 and won 31-0 as -3 point favorites and they won here in 1985 as well (the only other game here was in 1990 and it was a one point Georgia win). So the Bulldogs know what they are in for here against a Saban coached team. So far this season Georgia has only looked so-so in their games and despite being 4-0 SU, South Carolina was the only team they were able to hold to single digits. That means Georgia Southern, Central Michigan and Arizona State all scored in double digits against what is supposed to be one of the top defenses in college football. Georgia comes into this game averaging 35.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 450.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging a very decent 7.1 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is going to be the key to this game for Tide backers as they need to hold their ground against the top RB in the Nation. So far this season Alabama has held opponents to 9.3 points per game on the season and they have done so by allowing only 243.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.8 yards per play in those games. That's nothing special but its still solid defense regardless of how you look at it. On the ground, RB Knowshawn Moreno has been tearing it up and has led this team to 189.3 rushing yards per game on the season and 5.3 yards per carry in those games. Alabama's defense has been rock solid against the run this season and they have allowed opponents to rush for only 55.0 yards per game ths season on 2.2 yards per carry which should make things tough for Moreno (well the toughest he has had it this season for sure). That will force QB Matthew Stafford to actually have a good game this time around and I don't know that he can shine here. He has completed only 60.8% of his passes for 919 passing yards, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. Alabama's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 55.8% of their passes for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt and I expect them to make things tough for Stafford. The Junior threw 10 interceptions last season and has yet to throw one in 2008 which means he is due. The Crimson Tide have 6 interceptions on the season and they have a bunch of ball hawking DB's that like to take risks. Some payoff and some don't. I also like the pressure packages DC Willie Martinez has put together as his team has 7 sacks in four games this season and I expect them to expose a few holes in the Georgia offensive line (Stafford has been sacked 5 times in four games this season). Much like Alabama, Georgia doesn't have too many problems with turnovers on the ground so the winner of this game will be whoever can force more turnovers on the ground. I am not impressed with the 10.8 penalties per game that Georgia has taken this season because it is costing them 89.0 penalty yards per game which is almost an entire football field in my eyes which means a touchdown for Alabama in penalties. Georgia is a good team but I don't trust them anymore to win by this many points, not when the teams are so even in this division and not when Nick Saban is on the other sidelines with tricks up his sleeve left and right. Moreno should have a big game but Stafford will be contained the Alabama defense will do enough to hold the Bulldogs down long enough for their own offense to score the winning points. Georgia goes down in this game.
This is the GAME OF THE WEEK if you ask me and I know why ESPN College GameDay chose this location to attend this week. You have two of the TOP 10 teams in the Country going at it, it's a classic SEC Conference matchup and the loser will more likely than not be eliminated from National Title contention but still have a chance to play in the SEC Championship game. This should be an epic SEC battle of two coaches who go at each other like no other and I would be shocked if this was decided by anything less than a Field Goal or an overtime finish. What has to be mentioned is that Alabama is a much more disciplined team than Georgia as the Crimson Tide have averaged only 4.0 penalties for 29.5 as opposed to Georgia who have averaged a whopping 10.8 penalties per game this season which has cost them a hefty and whopping 89.0 penalty yards per game. WOW is all I have to say about Richt and his inability to control his players and their actions this season. I know Alabama has not been a profitable team to bet on the last few seasons when it comes to SEC Conference play but they are on a roll that started with their 30-24 Independence Bowl win over Colorado in 2007 and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Georgia has been an ATS baby the last two seasons for those looking to make cash but I think their nice little run comes to an end here as Alabama and Nick Saban will pull out all the tricks in their game of the year and they should go give George one heck of a run for their money.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning home record.
Alabama 19, Georgia 17
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (5 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies deserve a little bit better than what Vegas has going for them this game in terms of the line but Frank Beamers and his guys are used to it and this is no different than the ludicrous underdog line they had on them last week. The bottom line is that year in and year out this program produces good athletes from all over the place and regardless of experience, these guys find a way to win and Beamer ball is always a good way to go when it comes to wagering. Virginia Tech is coming off that huge in-conference win over North Carolina last week in their second ACC Conference game of the season. That's two weeks in a row now that this team has had to face a tough ACC opponent and two weeks in a row that they have come out with an impressive win. It is the out of conference action that probably has most bettors a little bit concerned as the Hokies lost 27-22 to East Carolina as a -9 point favorite in their season opening game but that was then and this is now. Virginia Tech does not play on artificial turg too often and this could cause adjustment problems for some of these kids. Having said that, it has not been an issue in the past as the Hokies are 11-6 SU lifetime when playing on a turf surface as opposed to natural grass and I don't expect them to have too many issues with this stuff. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging only 21.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 272.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games. On that note, this offense has not impressed at all this season and they are due for some sort of impressive performance. Nebraska's defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game this season but lets get real, who has this team faced? The Huskers defense has allowed 347.3 total yards of offense this season for only 4.9 yards per play in those games but I have a feeling they are in for a tough fight in this one. The last two seasons were a complete disaster when it comes to running the ball for VT and they were actually Beamer's worst two seasons running wise since his arrival. Well things are already starting to get better this season as Virginia Tech is averaging 173.8 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and RB Darren Evans has looked great this season and Tyrod Taylor will gain his fair share of yardage on the ground. Nebraska has yet to face a running threat this season therefore they have allowed only 86.3 rushing yards per game on the year and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry. In the air is where things are going to have to be won for Virginia Tech. QB Tyrod Taylor has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 199 passing yards, 5.0 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Like I said, things need to get better for this team to keep winning. Nebraska's secondary is decent and they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.2% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt (sounds a bit high and I think VT can expose that with the help of Sean Glennon). Protection has been an issue for this offensive line as the QBs have been sacked 9 times already in four games. That is why I would like to see more Tyrod Taylor pocket bailing in this game because Nebraska has 5 sacks in their three games this season and they could bring a lot of pressure. What I really like about Beamer ball however is that this team does not turn the ball over on the ground. Even though they have rushed an average 42.8 times per game this season, the Hokies have yet to lose a fumble and that is going to be a problem for the Huskers defense if they can't force turnovers on a regular basis. In their three games, Nebraska has forced only 3 fumbles and they have managed to recover only 1 of those fumbles somehow. The key to this game for the Virginia Tech offense is going to be to establish the run early and have the Husker defenders thinking spy on Taylor. Even if they go down they need to keep running the ball and they need to mix things up at the QB position to ensure some yardage through the air as well. I really think the Hokies can control the clock in this game and I think they can put enough points on the board to keep things close and put themselves in a position to win the game. Virginia Tech has only played in Nebraska once and that was a 41-21 loss in 1996. That's not happening again, Beamer ball prevails once again.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are virtually unknown in the sense that we don't ever hear much from them early on in the season until they one of these big games comes up against a non-conference powerhouse opponent (does the USC game ring a bell for anyone?). I know this game doesn't mean much to Virginia Tech because their main concern now is winning the ACC Conference and finding their way into a BCS Bowl. Nebraska on the other hand has a monsterous game against Missouri next week for Homecoming and something really tells me that they have worked in some preparations for that game into their weekly workouts this past week. I mean it would make sense because Missouri is a much more opponent for them than Virginia Tech and even if they lose this game, which they obviously don't want, they will still be alive in the Big 12 Conference race if they can knockoff Missouri next week. Having said that, how can Nebraska possibly be prepared for this game having played against team like Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State this season. Yes they went 2-1 ATS in those games and yes they scored a bunch of points but I am not a big fan of teams that dodge tough opponents in the first few weeks of the season because why not know what you're made of right away? I have always been a big fan of that and it doesn't make sense to hide behind a weak schedule the way the Huskers do pretty much every single season. Nebraska comes into this game averaging a whopping 40.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 450.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. That should make this a tough night for Bud Foster and his defense that has allowed only 17.0 points per game this season on 327.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. That's nowhere near on par for a Bud Foster defense but things are only starting to heat up now and the Hokies defense lives for a games like this. Nebraska has been quite efficient on the ground this season rushing for 189.0 yards per game and averaging 5.4 yards per carry in those games. Virginia Tech has surprisingly allowed teams to run all over them and concentrated more on cutting out long range plays downfield. They have allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry but I think Nebraska is going to be too eager to throw the ball in front of the home crowd and that could come back to haunt them. If they have the patience to run, run and run some more, this team is going to be successful. In the air, QB Joe Ganz has completed 64.1% of his passes this season for 719 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is going up against a Virginia Tech defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. I think it's safe to say Bud Foster expects a lot more out of his guys and I think we are going to see one of their best defensive efforts this season with a lot of blitz packages and some underneath coverage. I say that because Ganz is susceptible to making mistakes and if he is pressured a lot more than the one sack per game he has suffered so far this season, he will no doubt make some horrendous throws downfield that should be picked off by this defense that now has 4 interceptions in 4 games this season. The Hokies also have 6 sacks but like I said before, I would like them to bring a lot more pressure in this game knowing it should cut down on the long yardage plays and is a nice risk worth taking. Nebraska had and still has penalty issues as they take close to 8.3 penalties per game this season which has cost them 68.0 penalty yards per game and which could cost them when it matters most in this game. What Bud Foster specializes in is teaching his guys how to take away the ball. What I mean by that is that the Hokies have forced 8 fumbles already this season, they have recovered 7 of those fumbles if you believe it or not and they have 4 interceptions to go along with that. That would be 11 forced turnovers and we are only four games in. Nebraska has been known in the past to have problems holding onto the ball in big games and now they are on the floor with a chance to prove us wrong on that. I really think the Nebraska offense will struggle to find rythm if Foster and his guys bring pressure packages. Virginia Tech's defense is always underrated by oddsmakers and this should be no different.
Chances are that the action taken on this game is going to be significantly lower than the action taken on the Alabama-Georgia game being played at the same time meaning that you won't have as many sharps and touts on this thing and that has me excited. I know all the numbers are heavily stacked against this Virginia Tech team in this game as Nebraska is 20-1 SU in their last 21 games played prior to their Conference opening game (the one against Missouri next week) but the level of opposition has usually been a lot weaker than playing against a Frank Bearmer run football team.Nebraska has not lost to an ACC team at home since the 1995 season and they are 9-2 SU lifetime at home versus teams from that Conference. So again the odds are stacked against VT actually winning this game but when have they not been since Beamer got here. He lives for road games like this one and this is one team that always likes to prove naysayers wrong. The public is largely on the Huskers again in this one and I couldn't disagree more with what some people are posting online. Virginia Tech is never to underestimated on the road and the proof lies in their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are also 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games. The knock on this team is that they have not covered the spread against a non-conference opponents in seven games going 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. That streak ends tonight against a Nebraska team that has covered the spread in only 18 of their last 59 games that follow a win of 20+ points. WOW! Nebraska is also very good against tough opponents at home but I like the VT defense a lot more than I like the Nebraska offense. BEAMER BALL!
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games.
Virginia Tech 26, Nebraska 17
Hawaii Warriors -3 (10 Units)
The San Jose State Spartans have gone quite a few years since winning their last vacation game on the island and a lot of experts or so called experts are calling for them to win this game straight up. Not since the 2000 season has this Spartans team walked into Honolulu and come out with a win as they did in 57-48 fashion on a late October night. The Spartans followed that win up with a 34-10 loss here in 2001, then a 40-31 loss here in 2002 and then a 46-28 loss here in 2004 and last but not least a 54-17 loss here in 2006 as +25 point underdogs. Well the odds have certainly changed quite a bit since that day and the oddsmakers feel the gap between the two teams has significantly been narrowed to the point of pasting a field goal type line on this game. Wow that's crazy. The Spartans are off to a 2-2 SU start on the season with a 2-1 ATS record to go along with that. I don't know how you can bet on a team that was very close to being 1-3 SU on the season had it not been for some late heroics against I-AA UC Davis in their season opening 13-10 win in a non-lined game. Nebraska and Stanford both clobbered this Spartans team on the road and they have now lost both road games by an average of 18 points per game this season. That's a lot of points and it's not easy playing in Hawaii. San Jose State comes into this game averaging only 17.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 338.8 total yards of offense per game and averaging 5.1 yards per play in those games. This comes as a shock to absolutely nobody but Hawaii's defense has not improved at all since last season and they are allowing 39.3 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed 368.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play which doesn't really match how many points they have allowed. The score is so high because the offense has turned the ball over so many times. On the ground, San Jose State does not have much of a rushing attack as they are averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry in those games. Hawaii has not been all that bad against the run this season allowing 150.7 rushing yards per game and allowing 4.0 yards per carry in those games. That should force San Jose State to throw the ball and QB Kyle Reed has been on fire. Reed has completed 78.9% of his passes this season for 636 passing yards and 6.7 yards per pass atempt but his redzone production has not been good and he has thrown only 2 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions. Hawaii's pass defense has actually improved a little bit over the years and opponents have completed only 58.1% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The big issue for San Jose State has been protection for Reed who has been under fire pretty much the entire season. He has been sacked a whopping 9 times in four games this season and Hawaii's pass rush is actually not too bad as they have recorded four sacks in three games this season. When pressured, Reed makes mistakes. The Warriors are going to have to be a lot more aggressive in this game than they have been in any of their games this season and I say that because they have yet to recover a single fumble in three games and they have intercepted only 2 passes all season long. I understand that the defense has only 4 returning starters and that they are going to give up some big plays in this game but at the same time I expect them to come up with at least two or three turnovers to give their offense a shot to pull away in the second half. Hawaii's defense has done a great job drawing offensive penalties as their opponents are averaging 9.3 penalties per game this season and we all know how WAC Conference officials like to play around with their flags. Without much a running game to speak of, San Jose State is going to struggle for clock control. If you can't keep the clock running in Hawaii you are not going to win games here. I think this offense scores some points but I also think they struggle to do what they are supposed to do and that is keep the Hawaii offense off the field.
The Hawaii Warriors are one of the most twisted stories in college football this season and I say that because they have gone from having one of the most powerful non-BCS teams in the Nation with one of the most powerful offenses in all NCAA football to a team that is returning only 8 starters on both sides of the ball, that has lost their Heisman Trophy candidate MVP quarterback and that has lost their program changing head coach of 9 years to another program. What I really like about betting on Hawaii in this spot is that they have yet to find their way under new head coach Greg McMackin but they have done some good things and they are coming off a bye week which means they have had their first extended sessions of videotape watching under McMackin and they have had their first real long term preparations for a home game. Hawaii was blownout by Florida and Oregon State in their only two road games this season but they did crush Weber State in their home opener in between which should boost a bit of confidence. In last season's matchup between these two teams, Hawaii was down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before rallying and winning the game in overtime. What a game that was. Sure San Jose State is thinking revenge but ask yourself this, when was the last time you got to bet on Hawaii as a -3 point favorite at home against a mediocre opponent? The Warriors come into this game averaging only 17.7 points per game this season which has to be an all-time low for the last decade and in those games they have managed to average 296.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. Let's be fair though and recognize who this team has had to face so far this season (Florida and Oregon State on the road). San Jose State's defense has already had to face Nebrask and Stanford and have managed to allow only 19.5 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed only 269.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play which leads me to believe they are about to get exposed. On the ground, Hawaii has rushed for only 83.3 yards per game this season and that was on 3.2 yards per carry. It's not like they don't have talent at the RB position because RB Leon Wright Jackson and RB Jayson Rego Jr. both average more than 5.0 yards per carry this season but they have only carried the ball 13 times apiece and that's just not enough to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Expect to see a lot more of those two guys in this game. San Jose State has yet to face a really dynamic rushing attack which is why they have allowed only 92.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry in those games. I know the defense of San Jose State sounds solid but playing on the island is a lot different than playing in other places and I think this Hawaii offense comes alive tonight. QB Tyler Graunke has struggled to start the season as he has completed only 53.2% of his passes this season for 336 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. San Jose State's pass defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 52.5% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Once again this season protecting Graunke and QB Inoke Funaki has been a problem as the team has allowed 8 sacks in three games but please don't forget who those games were against (Oregon State and Florida on the road). That has led to 8 interceptions by the Warriors QB's but I don't expect that to be a factor in this game. Sure San Jose State has a few good pass rushers and sure they have 8 sacks in four games this season but again Hawaii is a lot better than what they have shown on the field this season and I really expect them to be firing on all cylinders offensively in this game despite their head coach coming from a defensive background. The key for Hawaii will be to run the ball a lot early, create some gap movement and then punish the San Jose State secondary with some long bombs which we have yet to see this season. When you think about it, after playing agaisnt both Florida and Oregon State, this Hawaii team is taking a huge step down in competition (like a horse moving up and down in class) and things should come a lot easier with the extra week off to prepare and practice for their conference opener tonight. The WAC Conference title is still possible for this team if they can right the ship and I like them a lot in this game tonight.
How I miss betting on these late night Hawaii games that start around Midnight because this gives me a chance to go out, party, come home wasted around 2am and watch the second half of the game. Having said that, the spreads had become unbearable the last few seasons with Hawaii entering National rankings and with Colt Brennan running the offense and attracting spreads of 20+ points for almost every home games. As ridiculous as it may sound, one player and one coach gone later, we have spreads of only three points on a Hawaii team that should still find ways to win at home. The betting public is leaning towards a Hawaii win but not by overwhelming numbers which means I really think Hawaii is going to finally look like the Hawaii teams (offensively anyways) we have known the last 10 years. San Jose State is an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 WAC Conference games which is impressive but they have never played well on the island and that is not about to change. I know coach Tomey wants to win this game badly because he used to coach here but Hawaii wants to win this game just as bad with road games against Fresno State and Boise State coming in the near future. The Spartans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week so I don't know how ready they actually are. Hawaii has been a great team to bet on coming off a straight up loss going 4-0 ATS in their last four under that situation and it has to be noted that the Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they allowed 40+ points the game before. I have a feeling this is going to be a shootout and I will take Hawaii in home game shootouts any day of the week. Can't wait for this one.
Trend of the Game: Hawaii is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they allow 40+ points.
Hawaii 42, San Jose State 32
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
RECAP
Oregon State +24.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Connecticut +3.5
Ohio State -18 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Michigan +6
Alabama +6.5
Virginia Tech +7
Hawaii -3
See you all next week and Sunday for some NFL action!
I did hit some big plays last week but also came up with a backup plan should my performance once again reach mediocre levels. I made some picks on the side using a simple (a) to (b) formula mixed with opening line judgment, weather, injuries and overall intangibles. The results were outstanding with a 6-0 ATS performance (on the side backup picks) in CFB and 4-1 ATS in NFL using the exact same capping method. So back to my old capping style I go this week.
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I am bound to catch fire and honestly I can't wait for that to happen, this stuff is getting old (slow starts). Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, September 25
Oregon State Beavers +24.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Southern California Trojans have had an entire week off to think about their blowout win over Ohio State on National Television and I have been debating all week as to whether that is a good thing or whether that is a bad thing. I have concluded that because Pete Carroll is the head coach around here it was a good thing but I have also concluded that because the Trojans have Oregon next week it is probably a bad thing. Let's take a quick look at what USC has done the three times they have come to Corvallis under Pete Caroll. In 2000 (his rookie season as head coach), the Trojans walked into this place -6.5 favorites and lost that game 31-21. In 2004 the Trojans walked into this place as -18 point favorites and won the game 28-20. In 2006 the Trojans came yet again, this time as -10.5 favorites in the game and were handed a shocking 33-31 loss that ended their hopes of playing for National Title game. So the bottom line is that Peter Carroll is 0-3 ATS in three career visits to Corvallis with the Trojans and that is definitely a concern if you ask me. This game has no resemblance whatsoever to USC's huge 52-7 road and season opening win over Virginia as the Cavaliers are a lot worse than Oregon State so get that out of your heads. The Trojans have had it too easy so far this season and something is bound to go a bit wrong. Coming off a huge win I think they have problems in this one. USC comes into this game averaging a whopping 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 451.5 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play in those games. That's quite impressive for sure and on paper they should shred apart this Oregon State defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game this season even though they have allowed only 322.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 5.2 yards per play in those games. The game is going to be won or lost on the ground for USC and I say that because the Beavers run defense has been their weak spot. The Trojans currently average 189.5 rushing yards per game on the season with 5.3 yards per carry while Oregon State has had problems stopping opponents this season allowing 168.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry in those games. Having said that, USC is too stubborn and too aggressive to pass all game which is actually a good thing for us Beaver backers. Reason for that is that USC QB Mark Sanchez has completed 68.3% of his passes this season for 510 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions which is not all that bad. However, Oregon State has allowed their opponents this season to complete only 50.6% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt with a nice 4 sacks on the season and 3 interceptions to go along with those. Sanchez does have a tendency to force throws that are not there and CB Brandon Hughes is not going to let him get away with that in this one. The Beavers defense is not that experienced but their secondary is ranked 3rd in the PAC 10 by experts sitting behind only USC and Oregon which is a good sign. I know the Trojans and Pete Carroll teams have never been known to turn the ball over much which is why it's importing for Oregon State to be aggressive in this one and force as many loose balls as possible. The Beavers have already forced 5 fumbles on the season but have recovered only 1 of those fumbles and they need to continuously wrap up and strip in this game to be successful. The Trojans are an explosive team there is no doubt about that but like I mentioned before although lacking experience big time, this defense has not played as bad as the numbers indicate and the proof of that lies in the fact that they have allowed only 322.0 total yards of offense per game. Most people see the 29.3 points allowed per game and freak out. The Beavers are going to make some big plays on the defensive end of things in this game, just watch.
The Oregon State Beavers know what they have to do to win this game and that is score a ton of points. Or not? I mean if some of you anticipate a sleepy or overconfident performance by USC the way I anticipate that to happen, you might as well not worry about the points because this game could remain a lot lower scoring than many people think despite the inexperienced Oregon State defense. With the loss of QB Sean Canfield for a month at the beginning of the season a lot of questions were being asked about this team and fans expected the worst. Well they got the worst they could get with a season opening loss to Stanford as -2.5 road favorites and things only got worse the week after that in a 45-14 loss to Penn State at Penn State for those of you wondering. Oregon State quickly got back on track two weeks ago in a home game against Hawaii as they blew away the Island boys 45-7 as -14 point favorites in Corvallis. I know this stadium seats only 42 000 or something like that but this is one of the loudest and most obnoxious places to play in college football and the fact that USC is 0-3 ATS in their last three games here just shows you how effective these fans can really be. The last time the Beavers hosted a ranked opponent was that 33-31 win over #3 USC back in 2006 and the fans have waited long enough for another one to come strolling through. Oregon State comes into this game averaging a very decent 29.0 points per game considering they opened the season with 2 road games. In those games they managed to average 439.0 total yards of offense per game and managed to get a very decent 5.5 yards per play in those games. We all know USC has one of the top defensive units in college football but they have always struggled in this stadium and I don't quite know why. This season the Trojans have allowed only 5.0 points per game and allowed a crazy 197.0 total yards of offense per game on only 3.3 yards per play. On the ground, Oregon State needs to be more effective with the loss of Yvenson Bernard this season as they have managed only 131.7 total rushing yards per game and in those games they average a mediocre 3.6 yards per carry (they averaged 4.2 last season). USC has yet to face a true running back this season as Beanie Wells missed them two weeks ago so it's understandable that they have allowed only 51.5 rushing yards per game and have held opponents to only 1.9 yards per carry in those games. With that being said, the Beavers need to find a way to make some big plays downfield and all that starts with QB Kyle Moevao who had 4 career starts prior to this season. Moevao has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for a very impressive 922 passing yards on the year with 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. As much as he takes risks, he does throw INT's. This USC defense has been tremendous and they have one of the best pass defenses in the Nation but opponents have managed to complete 60.0% of their passes against them this season for 4.5 yards per pass attempt which means the Trojans like to cover the deep plays and leave room for patient teams to succeed. By patient I mean a team that is willing to continue running the ball or throwing to check down receivers all game if that is what is taken to win. USC already has 7 sacks on the season and their pass rush is fierce which is why I like the Beavers offensive line in this one having allowed only 3 sacks in 3 games this season. They also have 3 interceptions (the defense that is) in their two games this season and Moevao needs to calm himself down for this game. He tends to get a little bit too excited. Mike Riley knows his team can do a lot better that Ohio State on the offensive side of things and believe me when I say he won't backdown from trying every play possible in his playbook. Riley has 6 career wins versus teams in the TOP 25 and he has 2 career wins versus teams in the TOP 10 during his career at Oregon State (8th season as head coach of Oregon State with a break between 1998 and 2003). The Trojans defense is ball hungry and they come after you from all angles. They have already recovered a whopping 4 fumbles on the season but what bettors need to know is they forced only 1 of those fumbles and the other were self inflicted wounds. Oregon State has the worst habit of starting off slow this season but that should change tonight with the crazy atmosphere and the fans going nuts. I like Oregon State to keep this game close and even if they can't win the game, expect them to find a way to bother the Trojans all night long.
PETE CARROLL IS 0-3 ATS in Corvallis, Oregon in three career games with Souther California. If that wasn't bad enough, we have an ORANGE OUT tonight which means the crowd will be dressed in nothing but orange and that quite the intimidating scene as we saw in Colorado last week. I don't know what the % is exactly but who else has noticed that underdogs are hitting left and right in televised weekday games and it seems like the public (including myself) has been sucked in to a number of lousy wagers on underachieving teams like West Virginia, Kansas State and others in past weeks (Rutgers ring a bell for you guys?). Things have gone a little too well for USC and this is the perfect spot for them to get a little scare like they did in 2006 (that wasn't a scare, it was a season shattering loss for the Trojans) and this crowd knows what they have to do to make it happen again. VERY DANGEROUS spot for the Trojans according to my imbalance formula and history has it that they will struggle here. Pete Carroll is one of the best BYE WEEK coaches in college and pro football and yes USC is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off the bye week but Carroll has mentioned that he hates playing on turf and it has shown as his team is 1-4 ATS in their last five turf games. To counter that, Mike Riley is also an outstanding coach coming off a bye week (5-0 ATS in their last five) and this Beavers team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on the green turf. The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and I am going to hope that trend continues. ORANGE TIME!
Trend of the Game: USC is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on artificial turf.
Oregon State 24, Southern California 23
Friday, September 26
Connecticut Huskies +3.5 (5 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies went from a 12+ point favorite in last Friday Night's game against Baylor to a +3.5 point underdog in their first Big East road game of the season. Does that even make any sense? I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing that Connecticut has not had a week off yet to rest and prepare for a tough Big East schedule that starts tonight but I am not too concerned because they are well coached. I know a lot of you, and I am one of those people, thought for sure the Huskies would have no problems knocking off a pesky Baylor team at home last Friday as -13 point favorites but as well all witnessed the Huskies looked like complete crap and they ended up winning that game by only 3 points. Other than that, this team is still very much alive in talks for a Big East Conference crown win because they are 4-0 SU (1-2 ATS in those games) so far this season with wins over Hofstra, Temple, Virginia and of course Baylor last week. I don't know that I can call this team successful over the years as road underdogs because they have not been known for their huge road upsets but a win here would not really be an upset. The two times the Huskies played in this stadium they lost 48-17 in 2006 and they lost 41-22 in 2000. Having said that they are 3-1 ATS all-time versus Louisville so my confidence is high. The Huskies come into this game averaging 30.8 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 421.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging 5.9 yards per play in those games. Louisville's defense has yet to be really tested this season and they have allowed 22.0 points per game on the year and allowed opponents to average 243.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play. This UConn team is loaded with returning starters (17 of them to be exact) so you know they have experience on both sides of the ball. On the ground, the Huskies are one of the top teams in the Nation having rushed for 279.5 rushing yards per game and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in those games. Louisville has been very good defensively with their new DC from Michigan as they have allowed only 42.0 rushing yards per game this season on 1.9 yards per carry but they have yet to face a decent back this season and RB Donal Brown II is about to show them what they have missed (he has 718 rushing yards on the season with 10 rushing touchdowns). In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen has completed 58.8% of his passes this season for 519 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions (wtf???). Lorenzen threw 6 interceptions all of last season and he has already reached that number for 2008 which is a bit strange despite his 223 rushing yards on the season for 6.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals defense has yet to be really tested through the air as they have managed to hold opponents to a 54.7% pass completion rate for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. Now I have noticed that Louisville's defense has only been effective when they are able to pressure opposing QB's and that has not been happening in some of their games. They have only 2 sacks in their three games this season and that's not good because Lorenzen and the Huskies are very elusive and the more time you give them the more they burn you with their ground attack. Louisville does have 4 interceptions in three games this season and I don't think coach Edsall is going to backdown from letting his QB loose in the passing game knowing that Lorenzen did throw for 13 touchdowns last season and that he had a 26-3 TD/INT ratio in Junior College. Surprisingly enough turnovers on the ground have not been a problem for this Huskies team as they have lost only 3 fumbles in 4 games. Louisville is going to be aggressive under their new DC and they have already recovered 4 fumbles in three games but having said that, the Huskies are one of the most disciplined bunches in the Big East Conference having taken only 3.5 penalties per game this season for 34.2 penalty yards per game. The key here is going to be to keep the Louisville offense off the field as much as possible to shut the crowd up and to ensure a win in the time of possession column which should in turn lead to a win in the ATS and SU columns as well. I like the matchups Connecticut have to offer here and will back them to win in another close games.
The Louisville Cardinals were completely hated by the public just one week ago when they came into their game against Kansas State as +5.5 points home underdogs having not lost a spread cover as home dogs in more than years. Still, almost 70% of the public was on Kansas State to win and cover that game and boy did Louisville just show them with a 38-29 win that Steve Kragthorpe so badly needed. Can someone please explain to me though how one team goes from a 30% public backing one week as a home underdog in a stadium they rarely lose in to being a 63% public backed favorite this week against an opponent they lost to last season. So all you haters who saw this team lost 27-2 to Kentucky at home in their season opener have all gone away? Cmon guys that doesn't make sense because Kansas State still looked like complete garbage last week, they still made a game of it against the Cardinals and now you are telling that this team is going to show up again for an ever bigger game this week? Well they do have momentum on their side I have to admit but it pretty much ends there for me. You can say Louisville got screwed by that Punt Return TD that was called back because in the end it did change the outcome of the game and it was a blown call but nobody wants to hear about that anymore. Louisville comes into this game averaging 30.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 411.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. UConn has been very solid on the defensive end of things despite their minor slip against Baylor a week ago tonight but I am not concerned because on the season they have managed to allow only 12.5 points per game and in those games they have allowed only 266.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games which is impressive. On the ground, it looks like Louisville found their man in RB Victor Anderson as he has led this team to 196.7 rushing yards per game on the season and 4.6 yards per carry in those games but I don't expect things to come as easy tonight as UConn has managed to allow only 92.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.1 yards per carry and they are run-tested having been run on 29.8 times per game this season. In the air, QB Hunter Cantwell has completed only 57.6% of his passes this season for 629 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Cantwell needs to be much better if he wants to win this game. I say that because the Huskies defense has been solid in the air as well as on the ground and opponents have managed to complete only 56.3% of their passes against them this season for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. I have some serious doubts about the Louisville offensive line because they have allowed 6 sacks on the season and Connecticut is going to come after Cantwell with everything they have. The Huskies already have a whopping 10 sacks in four games this season and if the line can't protect Cantwell, he is going to make some big time mistakes in this game. He has thrown three interceptions on the season and has to go up against a defense has ball hawking tendencies and that has already picked off 6 passes this season. The Cardinals take way too many penalties for my liking as they average almost double the amount of penalty yards per game than UConn does and I just don't trust this team for more than one week. I think the offense is going to have a tough time getting big plays the way they did last week against an in-conference defense like UConn's and if anything, it will be the Cardinals who have to come from behind and find a way to win this game. The Huskies defense makes too many big plays and I see them continuing that trend in this game.
We all remember the thrilling finish to last season's game between these two schools and I read somewhere this week that several Connecticut players were sick and tired of hearing about how they should have lost that game had it not been for a lucky interception with :15 left on the clock. I don't care what anyone says about either team in this one. Someone needs to explain to me when the hell the Louisville Cardinals became such a public darling considering they are not much better or different than last season's team and considering they are only a few plays away from screwing everyone out of their money yet once again. What you have to understand is that going into last week's game against Kansas State, the Cardinals had been underdogs at home only twice in the last 10 years and had gone 2-0 ATS in those games. Having said that, they are only 1-5 ATS as a home favorite under Steve Kragthorpe which makes me think he allows overconfidence. Connecticut has looked nothing more than mediocre in road games the last few seasons but I do like the fact that they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big East Conference games. Despite the win and cover last Friday Night, Louisville is still only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and this is a very bad matchup for these guys. The Huskies are better defensively and their ground attack should control the most part of this game.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big East Conference games.
Connecticut 35, Louisville 22
Saturday, September 27
Ohio State Buckeyes -18 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have turned quite the corner since their 1-11 SU finish last season and that's in large part thanks to new head coach Tim Brewster who has a good recruiting class of young players on the rise and who is getting the most out of the guys he has for now. You know when a team is not all that talented but they are well coached and things workout anyways? Well this is one of those teams and I will have no problems betting on them a few times this season. Having said that, this is not of those times because by no means do I trust these guys to walk into a place like the Horseshoe and pull off a win. Minnesota is off to an impressive 4-0 SU start after winning only one game all of last season and they are 2-1 ATS in those games with wins over Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State and Florida Atlantic. Can anyone name me more than one players from all four teams combined? Thought so. The point here is that Minnesota does not know what they are in for. The Golden Gophers are 1-17 SU lifetime playing in Columbus and they are 2-15 SU in their last 17 Big Ten Conference road openers which is pathetic. This team has had it way too easy so far this season which is why I don't see them being well prepared for a team like Ohio State having not seen a defense like this and having not played in this kind of atmosphere in a long time. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 36.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 403.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Having said that, they have not faced a Buckeyes defense like this as Ohio State has allowed only 14.8 points per game this season and they have allowed only 247.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.3 yards per play which should be a problem for the Gophers. On the ground, Minnesota has rushed for 162.0 yards per game this season and average 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Ohio State has faced some good teams up until now and they have allowed only 98.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry. That should force the Gophers to move to their aerial attack where QB Adam Weber is now in his second season with the team and has completed 71.8% of his passes for 967 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Some impressive numbers but who has he faced? Last season he threw a whopping 19 interceptions which leads me to believe he is due. Ohio State's defense is ready to deliver his INT baby. The Buckeyes don't have many high pressure guys up front this season but their secondary is nasty and they already have 7 interceptions in only four games on the year. Ohio State has allowed opponents to complete only 57.6% of their passes this season for 4.8 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Buckeyes can keep some coverage packages on the Minnesota WR, they are going to make some big plays in this game. The Golden Gophers have been pretty good holding onto the ball so far this season losing only one fumble all year. The Buckeyes are very solid tacklers who rarely go for ball strips which is a good thing here because if they can minimize Minnesota yardage on first and second downs, I really like this defenses chances on third and long against a Sophomore QB playing his first game in the Horseshoe. You can talk all day about guys like LB James Laurinaitis or CB Malcolm Jenkins (I predict a pick six in this game) but the real X-Factor for me has been CB Chimdi Chekwa. Opposing offenses have picked on him all season and he has arguably been their best defensive back when it comes to pure coverage and tough tackling. Minnesota will have some success on the ground and in the air this season but it won't come at the expense of the Buckeyes who should have their best defensive performance of the season right here. I think the Gophers spend the most part of the day turning the ball over and playing defense against an Ohio State team that finally has their 2008 coming out party.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have screwed me over (on them or against them) for the last three seasons now until last week's ATS loss to Troy (I was on the Trojans for 25 units and a huge week for me). I just have good and bad feelings about this team all the time which is why my fundamentals are a little bit special when it comes to capping their games. Having said that, do you not all feel like Ohio State is about to have one of those huge breakout games sometime soon? Do you not all feel like it is going to come at the expense of this Minnesota team that has probably overachieved all season to this point? I have to mention that Ohio State has always looked mediocre early in seasons until it comes time for Big Ten play. What I mean by that is that the Buckeyes are 13-2 SU in their last 15 Big Ten Conference opening games and they have won the last three by an average of 33 points per game (do you still fell comfortable if you like the Gophers here or what?). Ohio State has more than dominated this series for a very long time now as they are 17-1 SU lifetime versus Minnesota and I don't see the party stopping here. Ohio State looked like shit against Ohio and lost ATS, they looked even more horrendous against USC and got blown out of the water (needless to say ATS wise as well) and they are coming off that game against Troy where they looked pedestrian for three quarters before turning up the heat in the fourth and pulling away late in another ATS loss. So is this the big game? I think so. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 25.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 320.8 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play which has to come very close to being the lowest averages in college football when it comes to powerhouse programs like this one. Having said that I think they finally have a set offense. Minnesota has allowed 17.5 points per game this season and they have allowed those points by also allowing 354.8 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games (again they faced nobody of any significance). RB Beanie Wells is back and he should really bring a presence to a group that has rushed for 163.5 yards per game this season and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. The Gophers have yet to face a solid running attack and they have allowed only 109.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. Expect that to fall today. In the air, QB Tyrelle Pryor is finally comfortable knowing he has this starting job for the rest of the season until he falters. Pryor looked good but shaky at times last week but I expect big things from him this week. He has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for 226 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Minnesota's defense has not seen a mobile QB like this all season long and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 53.6% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. What I think is going to happen here is that Minnesota is going to over-focus on either Tyrelle Pryor or Beanie Wells causing the other to have a huge game and make big plays. The offensive line has been an issue for the Buckeyes as their QB's have been sacked a whopping 9 times already in four games but Minnesota does not have a pass rush to speak of and I don't see them generating any type of pressure up front in this game as they have a whopping 3 sacks in four games this season. They have however intercepted 8 passes already on the season which is impressive but I think the Buckeyes are going to focus on the ground attack and in turn launch some bombs downfield when the Gophers least expect it. Should be fun. Ohio State has fumbled the ball only two times this season and they have not really had turnover issues apart from the USC game but part of that was Boeckman and his pedestrian ways. Neither one of these teams takes a lot of penalties because they are well coached and I don't see that being a factor. Ohio State should have no problems running both Pryor and Wells on misdirection packages and I think as long as the defense can get them the ball back on more than one occasion with good field position, this offense should have their best offensive performance versus a I-A school this season. I really like the Buckeyes to win this game big guys. HUGE!
What people are going to ask in this game is why is this game any different than the Troy game last weekend where Ohio State was a -21 favorite and they failed to cover the spread. What gives with the -18 against an in-conference opponent that is a perfect 4-0 SU on the season and that is ranked much higher than Troy in most people's eyes. I will tell you what's going on here. This is QB Terelle Pryor's second official start and the nerves are gone, the experience is setting in. RB Beanie Wells makes his triumphant return to the lineup for the Buckeyes and although he won't run all over the Minnesota defense, his presence will be enough to lure defenders on some inside cheats and that will leave the door wide open for Pryor to run around all afternoon. You also have to understand that being at 0-3 ATS on the season, the Buckeyes are due big time for a WOW PERFORMANCE and I expect that performance right here and right now. Minnesota has been somewhat of a Big Ten meets ATS machine the last few seasons going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten Conference games. However, only one team has actually been a bit better than that and that would be Ohio State who is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Big Ten Conference games which is another indication that they are going to win this game large. Ohio State is due for a big breakout game, Beanie Wells is back and the spot is right. PLAY OF THE MONTH!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Big Ten Conference games.
Ohio State 45, Minnesota 10
Michigan Wolverines +6.5 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers know they need to show up for this game to have any kind of credibility and they know that this game could make or break their season. Normally most would not be concerned about betting on the Badgers against a conference opponent that is rebuilding and that has really struggled but this is not one of those cases. Actually yes it is but what I mean is that there is rivalry involved all over the place and you cannot replace some intangibles with variables that do not respect straight up facts about football. Okay so you're still confused. What I mean by that is that the home team has won 6 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the four times where the road team has won, three of those times it was Michigan winning on the road. Wisconsin has not won a game in the BIG HOUSE since the 1994 season and I cannot believe so many people like them here in this spot. The Badgers have played some good football and yes they did beat Marshall 51-14 and they did just beat Fresno State 13-10 as -2 point favorites but can you honestly say they looked good in that game. The Badgers had a week off to prepare for this game and they are 2-1 ATS on the season. For a team that has beaten Michigan on the road only once since 1965, I don't think they deserve the line they have and I still don't trust them at the QB spot to win big games like this one. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 34.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 423.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.2 yards per play in those games. Impressive stuff for sure but will it be enough? Michigan's defense is taking a few steps back this season as they work in a new Defensive Coordinator and have allowed 22.0 points per game so far this season. Having said that they have allowed their opponents to gain only 284.3 total yards of offense per game on only 4.2 yards per play so I give them a nice chance in this game. On the ground, as long as you can stop RB PJ Hill and stop his size and his huge runs, the rest just gets easier. Hill actually is the offense and he has led them to 238.7 rushing yards per game this season which has come on 5.0 yards per carry. PJ HILL are you ready for the Michigan defensive line or what? The only way to beat the Wolverines is in the air as they have allowed only 65.3 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 1.8 yards per carry in those games. WOW! In the air, QB Allan Evridge left the Fresno State game with some serious cramping in his legs and he never returned. He has completed 60.0% of his passes on the year for 526 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception. I for some reason don't trust Evridge at all playing in a big road game in-conference. The Wolverines defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.8% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Wisconsin runs the ball on average 47.3 times per game this season which would explain why Evridge has not thrown many interceptions and why he has rarely been sacked. The Michigan defense is averaging at least one interception per game this year and they have some dangerous guys in their secondary. With a lot of running comes a lot of chances to force fumbles, something Michigan has to do if they want a chance to win this game. Wisconsin runs a lot and they have had problems holding onto the ball. The Badgers have fumbled 6 times in three games and have been lucky enough to recover 3 of those fumbles. I have to mention that I think Michigan is going to come out pounding away on ball carriers and receivers in this game trying to force interceptions and trying to strip the ball from ball carriers. Should the succeed, that would tremendously help this hapless offense. We all know the Badgers are going to run, run and run some more but the question here is will the Badgers have the confidence to let Evridge pass in big down situations in the Big House? I don't think so. Evridge was not good in his 7 career starts with Kansas State throwing 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and I have yet to see anything special about this kid. Not this week Wisconsin and not this year for the rivalry.
The Michigan Wolverines are re-building but too many people are having a tough time understanding how and why a big name program like this could have to re-build. I will make it nice and simple for you guys. Lloyd Carr is gone, Rich Rodriguez is in and things are going to be done the right way around here, the way they were done at West Virginia and the way all the great coaches do it...from scratch. Rodriguez has a direct impact on the spread in this game because he is a good coach and good coaches make a difference on young and inexperienced teams like this Wolverines squad. The game against Wisconsin in 2007 was ugly and it was a blowout loss for Michigan but they were without QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart for the most part and now they are back for revenge in this game. I cannot explain to you how important it is to know that Michigan is 25-1 SU in their last 26 Big Ten Conference openers and it makes me wonder how anyone could really go against them in this spot. Michigan opened their season against a very good Utah team at lost 25-23 at home as a -3 point favorite. They followed that up with a win over Miami Ohio and then a pathetic 35-17 road loss at Notre Dame was as +1 point underdogs. So what the hell should we expect here? Michigan was a home underdog against Penn State last season and they beat them 14-9. So don't think they can't do that again. Michigan comes into this game averaging 18.7 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on only 290.7 total yards of offense per game this season and 4.7 yards per play in those games. Not very good. Wisconsin has played some tough defense all season long and they have allowed only 13.7 points per game this season and have done that by also allowing only 318.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground is where Michigan really needs to find someone who can lead this offense as they have struggled and averaged only 124.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry. RB Sam McGuffie has been solid but he is true freshman and it could be time to give experienced RB Brandon Minor a shot at leading the offense. Either way I like what some of these young guys look like and Rodriguez would love to get them going for good. Wisconsin has allowed 87.7 rushing yards per game this season and they have allowed those on 3.1 yards per carry which is decent but not great. I think Michigan has a real chance to run all over Wisconsin here and expose some weaknesses. In the air, QB Steven Threet is a redshirt freshman and has completed 54.5% of his passes this season for 307 passing yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions which leads me to believe he gets the nod over Nick Sheridan. Wisconsin is beatable through the air as well just to let you all know as their opponents this season have completed 55.3% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. With the great protection the Michigan QB's will get up front (they have not been sacked a single time this season to this point), I think Threet is going to have enough time to make some big plays happen downfield in this game. Sure Wisconsin has 5 sacks in three games but without pressure they are not the same defense and they cannot feed off the 4 interceptions they have enjoyed in the first three games of the season. The big problem for Michigan this season has been the youth and the tendency to turn the ball over on unforced plays. They have lost a total of 6 fumbles in three games this season and none of those fumbles have been directly forced by their opponents. They have all been mistakes that could have been avoided and that will be avoided after a week off of hardcore drills and working with the football. Wisconsin has recovered only 2 fumbles in their three games this season anyways so it is not a big concern that Michigan has issues with the ball. What I see happening in this game is a healthy dose of freshman RB's being thrown right into the fire and at the Wisconsin defense, something they might not expect knowing how young these guys are. I then see Threet making the big plays that matter most in this game when the game is on the line. He will have great protection in this game and should have a solid outing in his Big Ten Conference debut. I like Michigan here.
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU ALL THINKING PUBLIC SHEEP? Rich Rodriguez is not that bad of a coach that he is going to let a game like this just go to shit like that. Rodriguez has the right group of guys here to make this happen whether you think they have played well this season or not. Almost 70% of the public is backing Wisconsin to win this game by at least a touchdown but do you not see what Vegas is doing here? They have set the line that has cappers foaming at the mouth for a less than a touchdown type of price in a game they see as a blowout win. Can you please tell me the last time you saw such a line in this series? I have Michigan down as a TOP 40 team in the Country regardless of their re-building process and I couldn't believe this line when I first saw it. The word on Wisconsin is that they have always been good coming off a bye week and that's true as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye week. However, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win the game before and they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight Big Ten Conference games. The Badgers have been horrendous on the road going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games away from home. Believe it or not, Michigan has been very good in conference play and doubting them is not wise as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 Big Ten Conference games. I really like Michigan to win this game or lose on a late field goal.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 25-1 SU in their last 26 Big Ten Conference openers.
Michigan 23, Wisconsin 17
Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 (5 Units)
The Alabama Crimson Tide are sure as hell looking like the big surprise team coming out of the SEC Conference this season (there seems to be one of these each and every season) and I am going to ride them while they are hot. My initial thoughts on this team was that I was going to wait things out and bet them on games I could see ending with a late field goal or some overtime action. Well this is one of those games and I just don't understand how they came up with these odds. I am a big fan of Nick Saban's coaching style and always have been. I think he is one of the most effective guys in the business when it comes to teaching out of synch programs with talent how to unite and play together as a football team. He has a great recruiting class of freshman to work with this season and most of you have probably noticed their immediate impact on this team. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU this season with a 3-1 ATS record in those games with wins over Clemson, Tulane, Arkansas and Western Kentucky. The only blemish in their ATS record came against Tulane, a game they obviously decided to take it easy in considering they were coming off a huge and hyped game against Clemson the week before and could not afford to approach a meaningless game the same way. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 36.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 387.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games which is quite decent. Georgia has one of the top defenses in the NCAA this season and it has shown on quite a few occasions this season. They have allowed only 13.5 points per game on the season and in those games have held their opponents to 275.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play which is not that bad at all. I don't know that Georgia has seen a rushing attack like the one of Alabama this season as the Crimson Tide come into this game averaging a whopping 236.8 rushing yards per game this season on an even more whopping 5.9 yards per carry in those games. Georgia is tough up the middle and they have allowed only 45.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.0 yards per carry but please tell me what decent RB they have faced? RB Glen Coffee has been outstanding rushing for 404 yards on 8.6 yards per pass attempted and 2 TD's. He is complimented by RB Mark Ingram who is at 4 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has completed 59.6% of his passes for 542 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. He is going to have to be alert in this game because the Georgia defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 56.8% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass this season. As good as that sounds it could be better and Parker Wilson could have some success in this game. He has been sacked 5 times in four games which is not bad but he will have to move quickly in this one as Georgia has 6 sacks in their four games and their pass rushing is gaining some momentum. We all know the goal for this Georgia defense is going to be to stop the run first and pass second which is where Parker Wilson really needs to step up. The Bulldogs will more likely than not disrespect Saban's ability to have his guys move the ball through the air and on the plays that he does, the Tide have to make him pay. I think as much Alabama runs the ball, they need to pass effectively at the same time and assure that they are not stuck in 3rd and long situations all night long. Alabama has been solid when it comes to holding onto the ball which in part is why they are having so much success this season. They have lost only 2 fumbles in four games and holding onto the ball is going to be critical tonight. Saban has this group of kids on a nice tight leash, they love playing for him and it shows as they average only 4.0 penalties per game this season for 29.5 penalty yards per game. Discipline is everything in SEC matchups and if this game comes down to the final drive, it could be that one penalty or non-penalty that makes all the difference in the outcome. Alabama won't shine in this game but they'll so enough to win or lose on a late field goal.
The Georgia Bulldogs are considered the only team with a chance to beat the Florida Gators and knock them out of National Title Contention...so the experts say. Well that is going to have to wait until November 1 and there is no point of talking about that game right now. Having said that, the game against the Gators and all other games up until that day will have aboslutely no meaning unless Georgia can knockoff the Alabama Crimson Tide here and ensure they keep their perfect record. The last time Georgia hosted Alabama the game wasn't even close and the Bulldogs ended up on top 37-23 as -12.5 favorites (that was two years ago). However, if you go back a bit deeper than that, Alabama had a lot of success when visiting the Bulldogs as they were here in 1995 and won 31-0 as -3 point favorites and they won here in 1985 as well (the only other game here was in 1990 and it was a one point Georgia win). So the Bulldogs know what they are in for here against a Saban coached team. So far this season Georgia has only looked so-so in their games and despite being 4-0 SU, South Carolina was the only team they were able to hold to single digits. That means Georgia Southern, Central Michigan and Arizona State all scored in double digits against what is supposed to be one of the top defenses in college football. Georgia comes into this game averaging 35.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 450.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging a very decent 7.1 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is going to be the key to this game for Tide backers as they need to hold their ground against the top RB in the Nation. So far this season Alabama has held opponents to 9.3 points per game on the season and they have done so by allowing only 243.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.8 yards per play in those games. That's nothing special but its still solid defense regardless of how you look at it. On the ground, RB Knowshawn Moreno has been tearing it up and has led this team to 189.3 rushing yards per game on the season and 5.3 yards per carry in those games. Alabama's defense has been rock solid against the run this season and they have allowed opponents to rush for only 55.0 yards per game ths season on 2.2 yards per carry which should make things tough for Moreno (well the toughest he has had it this season for sure). That will force QB Matthew Stafford to actually have a good game this time around and I don't know that he can shine here. He has completed only 60.8% of his passes for 919 passing yards, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. Alabama's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 55.8% of their passes for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt and I expect them to make things tough for Stafford. The Junior threw 10 interceptions last season and has yet to throw one in 2008 which means he is due. The Crimson Tide have 6 interceptions on the season and they have a bunch of ball hawking DB's that like to take risks. Some payoff and some don't. I also like the pressure packages DC Willie Martinez has put together as his team has 7 sacks in four games this season and I expect them to expose a few holes in the Georgia offensive line (Stafford has been sacked 5 times in four games this season). Much like Alabama, Georgia doesn't have too many problems with turnovers on the ground so the winner of this game will be whoever can force more turnovers on the ground. I am not impressed with the 10.8 penalties per game that Georgia has taken this season because it is costing them 89.0 penalty yards per game which is almost an entire football field in my eyes which means a touchdown for Alabama in penalties. Georgia is a good team but I don't trust them anymore to win by this many points, not when the teams are so even in this division and not when Nick Saban is on the other sidelines with tricks up his sleeve left and right. Moreno should have a big game but Stafford will be contained the Alabama defense will do enough to hold the Bulldogs down long enough for their own offense to score the winning points. Georgia goes down in this game.
This is the GAME OF THE WEEK if you ask me and I know why ESPN College GameDay chose this location to attend this week. You have two of the TOP 10 teams in the Country going at it, it's a classic SEC Conference matchup and the loser will more likely than not be eliminated from National Title contention but still have a chance to play in the SEC Championship game. This should be an epic SEC battle of two coaches who go at each other like no other and I would be shocked if this was decided by anything less than a Field Goal or an overtime finish. What has to be mentioned is that Alabama is a much more disciplined team than Georgia as the Crimson Tide have averaged only 4.0 penalties for 29.5 as opposed to Georgia who have averaged a whopping 10.8 penalties per game this season which has cost them a hefty and whopping 89.0 penalty yards per game. WOW is all I have to say about Richt and his inability to control his players and their actions this season. I know Alabama has not been a profitable team to bet on the last few seasons when it comes to SEC Conference play but they are on a roll that started with their 30-24 Independence Bowl win over Colorado in 2007 and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Georgia has been an ATS baby the last two seasons for those looking to make cash but I think their nice little run comes to an end here as Alabama and Nick Saban will pull out all the tricks in their game of the year and they should go give George one heck of a run for their money.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning home record.
Alabama 19, Georgia 17
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (5 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies deserve a little bit better than what Vegas has going for them this game in terms of the line but Frank Beamers and his guys are used to it and this is no different than the ludicrous underdog line they had on them last week. The bottom line is that year in and year out this program produces good athletes from all over the place and regardless of experience, these guys find a way to win and Beamer ball is always a good way to go when it comes to wagering. Virginia Tech is coming off that huge in-conference win over North Carolina last week in their second ACC Conference game of the season. That's two weeks in a row now that this team has had to face a tough ACC opponent and two weeks in a row that they have come out with an impressive win. It is the out of conference action that probably has most bettors a little bit concerned as the Hokies lost 27-22 to East Carolina as a -9 point favorite in their season opening game but that was then and this is now. Virginia Tech does not play on artificial turg too often and this could cause adjustment problems for some of these kids. Having said that, it has not been an issue in the past as the Hokies are 11-6 SU lifetime when playing on a turf surface as opposed to natural grass and I don't expect them to have too many issues with this stuff. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging only 21.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 272.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games. On that note, this offense has not impressed at all this season and they are due for some sort of impressive performance. Nebraska's defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game this season but lets get real, who has this team faced? The Huskers defense has allowed 347.3 total yards of offense this season for only 4.9 yards per play in those games but I have a feeling they are in for a tough fight in this one. The last two seasons were a complete disaster when it comes to running the ball for VT and they were actually Beamer's worst two seasons running wise since his arrival. Well things are already starting to get better this season as Virginia Tech is averaging 173.8 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and RB Darren Evans has looked great this season and Tyrod Taylor will gain his fair share of yardage on the ground. Nebraska has yet to face a running threat this season therefore they have allowed only 86.3 rushing yards per game on the year and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry. In the air is where things are going to have to be won for Virginia Tech. QB Tyrod Taylor has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 199 passing yards, 5.0 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Like I said, things need to get better for this team to keep winning. Nebraska's secondary is decent and they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.2% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt (sounds a bit high and I think VT can expose that with the help of Sean Glennon). Protection has been an issue for this offensive line as the QBs have been sacked 9 times already in four games. That is why I would like to see more Tyrod Taylor pocket bailing in this game because Nebraska has 5 sacks in their three games this season and they could bring a lot of pressure. What I really like about Beamer ball however is that this team does not turn the ball over on the ground. Even though they have rushed an average 42.8 times per game this season, the Hokies have yet to lose a fumble and that is going to be a problem for the Huskers defense if they can't force turnovers on a regular basis. In their three games, Nebraska has forced only 3 fumbles and they have managed to recover only 1 of those fumbles somehow. The key to this game for the Virginia Tech offense is going to be to establish the run early and have the Husker defenders thinking spy on Taylor. Even if they go down they need to keep running the ball and they need to mix things up at the QB position to ensure some yardage through the air as well. I really think the Hokies can control the clock in this game and I think they can put enough points on the board to keep things close and put themselves in a position to win the game. Virginia Tech has only played in Nebraska once and that was a 41-21 loss in 1996. That's not happening again, Beamer ball prevails once again.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are virtually unknown in the sense that we don't ever hear much from them early on in the season until they one of these big games comes up against a non-conference powerhouse opponent (does the USC game ring a bell for anyone?). I know this game doesn't mean much to Virginia Tech because their main concern now is winning the ACC Conference and finding their way into a BCS Bowl. Nebraska on the other hand has a monsterous game against Missouri next week for Homecoming and something really tells me that they have worked in some preparations for that game into their weekly workouts this past week. I mean it would make sense because Missouri is a much more opponent for them than Virginia Tech and even if they lose this game, which they obviously don't want, they will still be alive in the Big 12 Conference race if they can knockoff Missouri next week. Having said that, how can Nebraska possibly be prepared for this game having played against team like Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State this season. Yes they went 2-1 ATS in those games and yes they scored a bunch of points but I am not a big fan of teams that dodge tough opponents in the first few weeks of the season because why not know what you're made of right away? I have always been a big fan of that and it doesn't make sense to hide behind a weak schedule the way the Huskers do pretty much every single season. Nebraska comes into this game averaging a whopping 40.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 450.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. That should make this a tough night for Bud Foster and his defense that has allowed only 17.0 points per game this season on 327.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. That's nowhere near on par for a Bud Foster defense but things are only starting to heat up now and the Hokies defense lives for a games like this. Nebraska has been quite efficient on the ground this season rushing for 189.0 yards per game and averaging 5.4 yards per carry in those games. Virginia Tech has surprisingly allowed teams to run all over them and concentrated more on cutting out long range plays downfield. They have allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry but I think Nebraska is going to be too eager to throw the ball in front of the home crowd and that could come back to haunt them. If they have the patience to run, run and run some more, this team is going to be successful. In the air, QB Joe Ganz has completed 64.1% of his passes this season for 719 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is going up against a Virginia Tech defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. I think it's safe to say Bud Foster expects a lot more out of his guys and I think we are going to see one of their best defensive efforts this season with a lot of blitz packages and some underneath coverage. I say that because Ganz is susceptible to making mistakes and if he is pressured a lot more than the one sack per game he has suffered so far this season, he will no doubt make some horrendous throws downfield that should be picked off by this defense that now has 4 interceptions in 4 games this season. The Hokies also have 6 sacks but like I said before, I would like them to bring a lot more pressure in this game knowing it should cut down on the long yardage plays and is a nice risk worth taking. Nebraska had and still has penalty issues as they take close to 8.3 penalties per game this season which has cost them 68.0 penalty yards per game and which could cost them when it matters most in this game. What Bud Foster specializes in is teaching his guys how to take away the ball. What I mean by that is that the Hokies have forced 8 fumbles already this season, they have recovered 7 of those fumbles if you believe it or not and they have 4 interceptions to go along with that. That would be 11 forced turnovers and we are only four games in. Nebraska has been known in the past to have problems holding onto the ball in big games and now they are on the floor with a chance to prove us wrong on that. I really think the Nebraska offense will struggle to find rythm if Foster and his guys bring pressure packages. Virginia Tech's defense is always underrated by oddsmakers and this should be no different.
Chances are that the action taken on this game is going to be significantly lower than the action taken on the Alabama-Georgia game being played at the same time meaning that you won't have as many sharps and touts on this thing and that has me excited. I know all the numbers are heavily stacked against this Virginia Tech team in this game as Nebraska is 20-1 SU in their last 21 games played prior to their Conference opening game (the one against Missouri next week) but the level of opposition has usually been a lot weaker than playing against a Frank Bearmer run football team.Nebraska has not lost to an ACC team at home since the 1995 season and they are 9-2 SU lifetime at home versus teams from that Conference. So again the odds are stacked against VT actually winning this game but when have they not been since Beamer got here. He lives for road games like this one and this is one team that always likes to prove naysayers wrong. The public is largely on the Huskers again in this one and I couldn't disagree more with what some people are posting online. Virginia Tech is never to underestimated on the road and the proof lies in their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are also 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games. The knock on this team is that they have not covered the spread against a non-conference opponents in seven games going 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. That streak ends tonight against a Nebraska team that has covered the spread in only 18 of their last 59 games that follow a win of 20+ points. WOW! Nebraska is also very good against tough opponents at home but I like the VT defense a lot more than I like the Nebraska offense. BEAMER BALL!
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games.
Virginia Tech 26, Nebraska 17
Hawaii Warriors -3 (10 Units)
The San Jose State Spartans have gone quite a few years since winning their last vacation game on the island and a lot of experts or so called experts are calling for them to win this game straight up. Not since the 2000 season has this Spartans team walked into Honolulu and come out with a win as they did in 57-48 fashion on a late October night. The Spartans followed that win up with a 34-10 loss here in 2001, then a 40-31 loss here in 2002 and then a 46-28 loss here in 2004 and last but not least a 54-17 loss here in 2006 as +25 point underdogs. Well the odds have certainly changed quite a bit since that day and the oddsmakers feel the gap between the two teams has significantly been narrowed to the point of pasting a field goal type line on this game. Wow that's crazy. The Spartans are off to a 2-2 SU start on the season with a 2-1 ATS record to go along with that. I don't know how you can bet on a team that was very close to being 1-3 SU on the season had it not been for some late heroics against I-AA UC Davis in their season opening 13-10 win in a non-lined game. Nebraska and Stanford both clobbered this Spartans team on the road and they have now lost both road games by an average of 18 points per game this season. That's a lot of points and it's not easy playing in Hawaii. San Jose State comes into this game averaging only 17.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 338.8 total yards of offense per game and averaging 5.1 yards per play in those games. This comes as a shock to absolutely nobody but Hawaii's defense has not improved at all since last season and they are allowing 39.3 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed 368.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play which doesn't really match how many points they have allowed. The score is so high because the offense has turned the ball over so many times. On the ground, San Jose State does not have much of a rushing attack as they are averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry in those games. Hawaii has not been all that bad against the run this season allowing 150.7 rushing yards per game and allowing 4.0 yards per carry in those games. That should force San Jose State to throw the ball and QB Kyle Reed has been on fire. Reed has completed 78.9% of his passes this season for 636 passing yards and 6.7 yards per pass atempt but his redzone production has not been good and he has thrown only 2 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions. Hawaii's pass defense has actually improved a little bit over the years and opponents have completed only 58.1% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The big issue for San Jose State has been protection for Reed who has been under fire pretty much the entire season. He has been sacked a whopping 9 times in four games this season and Hawaii's pass rush is actually not too bad as they have recorded four sacks in three games this season. When pressured, Reed makes mistakes. The Warriors are going to have to be a lot more aggressive in this game than they have been in any of their games this season and I say that because they have yet to recover a single fumble in three games and they have intercepted only 2 passes all season long. I understand that the defense has only 4 returning starters and that they are going to give up some big plays in this game but at the same time I expect them to come up with at least two or three turnovers to give their offense a shot to pull away in the second half. Hawaii's defense has done a great job drawing offensive penalties as their opponents are averaging 9.3 penalties per game this season and we all know how WAC Conference officials like to play around with their flags. Without much a running game to speak of, San Jose State is going to struggle for clock control. If you can't keep the clock running in Hawaii you are not going to win games here. I think this offense scores some points but I also think they struggle to do what they are supposed to do and that is keep the Hawaii offense off the field.
The Hawaii Warriors are one of the most twisted stories in college football this season and I say that because they have gone from having one of the most powerful non-BCS teams in the Nation with one of the most powerful offenses in all NCAA football to a team that is returning only 8 starters on both sides of the ball, that has lost their Heisman Trophy candidate MVP quarterback and that has lost their program changing head coach of 9 years to another program. What I really like about betting on Hawaii in this spot is that they have yet to find their way under new head coach Greg McMackin but they have done some good things and they are coming off a bye week which means they have had their first extended sessions of videotape watching under McMackin and they have had their first real long term preparations for a home game. Hawaii was blownout by Florida and Oregon State in their only two road games this season but they did crush Weber State in their home opener in between which should boost a bit of confidence. In last season's matchup between these two teams, Hawaii was down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before rallying and winning the game in overtime. What a game that was. Sure San Jose State is thinking revenge but ask yourself this, when was the last time you got to bet on Hawaii as a -3 point favorite at home against a mediocre opponent? The Warriors come into this game averaging only 17.7 points per game this season which has to be an all-time low for the last decade and in those games they have managed to average 296.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. Let's be fair though and recognize who this team has had to face so far this season (Florida and Oregon State on the road). San Jose State's defense has already had to face Nebrask and Stanford and have managed to allow only 19.5 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed only 269.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play which leads me to believe they are about to get exposed. On the ground, Hawaii has rushed for only 83.3 yards per game this season and that was on 3.2 yards per carry. It's not like they don't have talent at the RB position because RB Leon Wright Jackson and RB Jayson Rego Jr. both average more than 5.0 yards per carry this season but they have only carried the ball 13 times apiece and that's just not enough to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Expect to see a lot more of those two guys in this game. San Jose State has yet to face a really dynamic rushing attack which is why they have allowed only 92.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry in those games. I know the defense of San Jose State sounds solid but playing on the island is a lot different than playing in other places and I think this Hawaii offense comes alive tonight. QB Tyler Graunke has struggled to start the season as he has completed only 53.2% of his passes this season for 336 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. San Jose State's pass defense has allowed opponents this season to complete only 52.5% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Once again this season protecting Graunke and QB Inoke Funaki has been a problem as the team has allowed 8 sacks in three games but please don't forget who those games were against (Oregon State and Florida on the road). That has led to 8 interceptions by the Warriors QB's but I don't expect that to be a factor in this game. Sure San Jose State has a few good pass rushers and sure they have 8 sacks in four games this season but again Hawaii is a lot better than what they have shown on the field this season and I really expect them to be firing on all cylinders offensively in this game despite their head coach coming from a defensive background. The key for Hawaii will be to run the ball a lot early, create some gap movement and then punish the San Jose State secondary with some long bombs which we have yet to see this season. When you think about it, after playing agaisnt both Florida and Oregon State, this Hawaii team is taking a huge step down in competition (like a horse moving up and down in class) and things should come a lot easier with the extra week off to prepare and practice for their conference opener tonight. The WAC Conference title is still possible for this team if they can right the ship and I like them a lot in this game tonight.
How I miss betting on these late night Hawaii games that start around Midnight because this gives me a chance to go out, party, come home wasted around 2am and watch the second half of the game. Having said that, the spreads had become unbearable the last few seasons with Hawaii entering National rankings and with Colt Brennan running the offense and attracting spreads of 20+ points for almost every home games. As ridiculous as it may sound, one player and one coach gone later, we have spreads of only three points on a Hawaii team that should still find ways to win at home. The betting public is leaning towards a Hawaii win but not by overwhelming numbers which means I really think Hawaii is going to finally look like the Hawaii teams (offensively anyways) we have known the last 10 years. San Jose State is an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 WAC Conference games which is impressive but they have never played well on the island and that is not about to change. I know coach Tomey wants to win this game badly because he used to coach here but Hawaii wants to win this game just as bad with road games against Fresno State and Boise State coming in the near future. The Spartans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week so I don't know how ready they actually are. Hawaii has been a great team to bet on coming off a straight up loss going 4-0 ATS in their last four under that situation and it has to be noted that the Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they allowed 40+ points the game before. I have a feeling this is going to be a shootout and I will take Hawaii in home game shootouts any day of the week. Can't wait for this one.
Trend of the Game: Hawaii is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they allow 40+ points.
Hawaii 42, San Jose State 32
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
RECAP
Oregon State +24.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Connecticut +3.5
Ohio State -18 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Michigan +6
Alabama +6.5
Virginia Tech +7
Hawaii -3
See you all next week and Sunday for some NFL action!
