2016 MistaFlava's CFB Betting Record: 15-12-1 ATS (+21.50 Units)
Had a bit of a wild week last week but this is typically when I start to get hot and get a good feel for games. I obviously won't be posting this many picks again but looking for a week in the +. Finished 8-1 ATS in NFL bets in Week 1.
2016 Season
Week 1: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)
Week 2: 13-10-1 ATS (+22.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending...
Good Luck to everyone, some great money to be made out there!
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Friday, September 15
Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5 (10 Units)
How interesting that some 64% of the betting public is on the darling Cougars, playing in a mid-week Primetime game under the lights yet the line was at 8.5 yesterday and has now gone down to 7.5. Some people out there know what they are doing. Cincinnati is not great but they are not a joke and Houston is going to find out the hard way here. Both teams are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS so they've had their shares of ups and their shares of downs. Houston have not won a game in Cincinnati since 1971 so again you can see how difficult it will be for them to win this let alone win this by more than a touchdown. The last time three times these two teams got together, all three games combined were determined by a grand total of 17 points.
Houston is averaging 460.5 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play but this surprising Cincinnati offense is averaging 456.0 total yards per game but a whopping 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats defence has been somewhat shredded but they are forcing a botload of turnovers so far with 8 in two games which has resulted in a crazy 35 points scored. I don't know that the Bearcats can have a ton of success on the ground because Houston's defense is the real deal but in the air is a different story. Bearcats QB Hayden Moore has completed 60.6% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. The reason this should be a concern for Houston backs is because in two games they have allowed opponents to complete 66.0% of their passes this season for a huge 8.1 yards per pass attempt and they don't have an interception yet on the year.
Don't get me wrong, Houston has been cash money as an away team the last four or five season but most of those games as an underdog. I know their starters (some of them) did not play against Lamar but I don't like. I don't like stopping flow and then having to re-start again. Cincinnati is always good and dangerous is conference games and they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games played in the Conference. They are also very consistent and coming off that road win in Purdue I think morale is very high. Like I mentioned earlier, and I'm not sure what it is, Houston does not play well here. 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Cincy. I smell an upset.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off a game where they rush for 200+ yards.
Cincinnati 31, Houston 27
:toast:
Had a bit of a wild week last week but this is typically when I start to get hot and get a good feel for games. I obviously won't be posting this many picks again but looking for a week in the +. Finished 8-1 ATS in NFL bets in Week 1.
2016 Season
Week 1: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)
Week 2: 13-10-1 ATS (+22.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending...
Good Luck to everyone, some great money to be made out there!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, September 15
Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5 (10 Units)
How interesting that some 64% of the betting public is on the darling Cougars, playing in a mid-week Primetime game under the lights yet the line was at 8.5 yesterday and has now gone down to 7.5. Some people out there know what they are doing. Cincinnati is not great but they are not a joke and Houston is going to find out the hard way here. Both teams are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS so they've had their shares of ups and their shares of downs. Houston have not won a game in Cincinnati since 1971 so again you can see how difficult it will be for them to win this let alone win this by more than a touchdown. The last time three times these two teams got together, all three games combined were determined by a grand total of 17 points.
Houston is averaging 460.5 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play but this surprising Cincinnati offense is averaging 456.0 total yards per game but a whopping 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats defence has been somewhat shredded but they are forcing a botload of turnovers so far with 8 in two games which has resulted in a crazy 35 points scored. I don't know that the Bearcats can have a ton of success on the ground because Houston's defense is the real deal but in the air is a different story. Bearcats QB Hayden Moore has completed 60.6% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. The reason this should be a concern for Houston backs is because in two games they have allowed opponents to complete 66.0% of their passes this season for a huge 8.1 yards per pass attempt and they don't have an interception yet on the year.
Don't get me wrong, Houston has been cash money as an away team the last four or five season but most of those games as an underdog. I know their starters (some of them) did not play against Lamar but I don't like. I don't like stopping flow and then having to re-start again. Cincinnati is always good and dangerous is conference games and they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games played in the Conference. They are also very consistent and coming off that road win in Purdue I think morale is very high. Like I mentioned earlier, and I'm not sure what it is, Houston does not play well here. 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Cincy. I smell an upset.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off a game where they rush for 200+ yards.
Cincinnati 31, Houston 27
:toast:
