MistaFlava's 2009 College Football Record: 14-10 ATS (+94.50 Units)
Welcome to my 2009 College Football Season. Last year did not go all that well but I had some big wins but I also had some big unit losses and this is a good time to recover. My best season was still the 2004 season where I made huge profits and I hope I can regain that magical touch of my last year posting at Covers.com before being banned for life.
Please keep in mind that these are all my plays, my writeups, my bullshit, my common sense...whatever you wanna call what I post. Some tout sites have used my writeups in the past but it's not authorized and I post everything first obviously. Enjoy the season and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Week 1: 9-4 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2: 5-6 ATS (+39.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 2-0 ATS (+100.00 Units)
Please also keep in mind that 1 Unit = $100 for all my plays unless otherwise posted. I will try to post plays in early every week but with my move out of the Country it's going to be tough the next month or so please forgive the lateness of my plays.
Also stop being so obessed with my units. I bet what I want to bet and you can all use the units as a guideline to see how much I like a play. Money is money, some of us have it, some of us don't. Who cares as long as you are making your own money right?
LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!
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Thursday, September 17
Miami Florida Hurricanes -4.5 (10 Units)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a lucky bunch and they know it. The built a big lead in their last game but almost blew it against the Clemson Tigers at home. I know Paul Johnson is known for having solid fundamental teams but what I have noticed over the years is that his teams turn the ball over quite a bit and it's starting to cost them in the very tough ACC Conference. I don't know about you guys but for a defense that returns 8 starters from last season and that allowed only 20 points per game the last two seasons, I am not all that impressed with the 44 points they have allowed in their first two games (one of those games versus I-AA Jacksonville State). We all know how much the Jackets love to run the ball but with running comes turnovers and with turnovers comes the opportunity for opposing teams to either run away with games or make comebacks like we saw Clemson do last week. This is the most experienced team in the ACC Conference this season with 18 returning starters but I don't trust them on the road. They cannot possibly continue their road success in 2009 (they were 4-1 ATS away from home in Johnson's first season of 2008). Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging a whopping 33.5 points per game this season on 457.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.3 yards per play. Miami's defense is as good as it has been in years and despite allowing 34 points against Florida State (rivalries games should be tossed out the window). You have to still like the fact that Miami was able to hold the Seminoles to only 5.7 yards per play in that game (the Canes averaged 7.4 themselves). We all know Georgia Tech is going to run, run and run some more. They average 318.0 rushing yards per game this season on 6.4 yards per carry. However, Miami's D-Line is outstanding (best in ACC if you ask me) and they allowed only 109.0 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry against Florida State. That is going to force QB Josh Nesbitt to throw the ball a lot more than he wants in this game and that can't be good seeing how he has completed only 9 of 25 passes this season (36% pass completion) for 224 passing yards, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. Nesbitt has not been sacked yet this season but that is going to change tonight against a Canes defense that had 2 sacks against Florida State. From what I have seen the Miami tacklers are very aggressive and that is going to be a problem for a Georgia Tech team that has fumbled 5 times this season and lost 3 of those fumbles. I don't know if you guys have noticed the Yellow Jackets suck in the second half as they have scored only 12 of their 67 total points in the second half (not a single point in the third quarter yet). That's a big time problem because when your team shuts down at the half, it's hard to keep games close. Miami's defense has their way tonight.
The Miami Hurricanes are finally to a dream start for once and Randy Shannon, even though he is one of the worst coaches in the ACC Conference, has talked about how important it is to be 2-0 SU after this game tonight. The Canes have had a ton of time to prepare and rest for this game as they have not played since September 7 on Labor Day and that is a lot of time to recover from a big rivalry game like they had against the Noles. The reason this game is so important is because Miami has to travel to Virginia Tech next week and then they get OklahomaOklahoma in coming weeks. For now let's stick to this game. Miami comes in to this game off that outstanding 38 points come from behind performance against Florida State. In that game they amassed 476.0 total yards of offense on 7.4 yards per play and I don't think Georgia Tech's defense can handle a seasoned offense. Sure the Jackets have done a decent job on defense this season despite allowing 44 total points but the Canes have too much fire power in the air. Surprisingly enough Miami managed only 90.0 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry against FSU but RB Graig Cooper was solid and RB Javarris James can only improve. The Jackets are solid against the run but their pass defense was torched a few times the last couple of weeks. QB Jacory Harris completed 21 of 34 passes in the opener for 386 passing yards, 11.4 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. WR Travis Benjamin is a star in the making and it showed again against Florida State as he brought down 4 catches for 128 receiving yards, 1 touchdown and a whopping 32.0 yards per reception. He is one of the fastest players in the NCAA at 4.26 and he is going to be a deep weapon all season. The Yellow Jackets made some big plays on defense and they do have 6 sacks on the season with 3 interceptions. Having said that, Harris is very good on his feet, he doesn't take many sacks and he should be able to expose a Georgia Tech defense that allows 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season. Miami did not fumble the ball a single time in their opener and I think they are going to open things up big time on offense in this game. There is no way the Canes are as undisciplined as they were against FSU where they took 9 penalties resulting in 74.0 penalty yards. The Yellow Jackets can't defend the deep ball and Harris is a dual threat that is going to be too much for this defense.
This is a big game in the ACC Conference because if Georgia Tech moves to 3-0 SU on the year, they are going to be tough to catch. Last year's game was played at Georgia Tech and in a 41-23 loss the Miami Hurricanes allowed 400+ yards rushing on the ground. Believe me when I say that this defensive line is not about to let that happen again. Georgia Tech has won four straight against Miami but those were some pretty bad and overrated Miami teams. This is the most confident and talented team the Canes have had in three of four seasons and I expect them to put an end to their losing streak against these Jackets. For some reason underdogs are 3-0 ATS this season NFL and College on Thursday Nights and again that trend has to at some point come to an end. No matter how well Georgia Tech has played as an underdog the last few season, they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday Night Football games and they are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games that follow a week off. The Yellow Jackets have not been good coming off a win and they have lacked consistency the last two seasons going 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win the game before. This should be a good game but Georgia Tech turns the ball over too much and Miami is too aggressive for this game to stay close. Canes for me.
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games that follow a BYE week.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 10
Friday, September 18
Boise State Broncos -7.5 (5 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are the one team in college football I can honestly say I don't think I have ever won a wager betting on or against. Well maybe I did but it had to be in the pre-Chris Petersen era because the last few years I just cannot win with this team. It doesn't matter when I choose to back them, I just can't get it right. Well it's time to change all of that right now with one single wager. The Broncos know this is a big game for them because now that they have won the one and only difficult game on their schedule, they are going to have to convince the BCS Computers that they deserve to be in the BCS Bowl Games. There could be 2-3 other non-BCS Conference teams like TCU that also run the table this season which is why the Broncos need to win every game by 20+ points and I have no doubts on my mind that Chris Petersen knows this. Boise State has the #117 ranked schedule in the Country and even if they go 12-0 on the year, that's just not good enough to convince anyone they belong in the BCS. They had that problem last season as well when Utah were the ones who got into the BCS. So again the Broncos are looking for wins and they are looking for big wins. Boise State comes into this game averaging 33.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 404.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. The Fresno StateBoise State struggled to run the ball their first two games averaging a decent but not so great 3.4 yards per carry on 149.0 rushing yards per game. Fresno State did a good job stopping the run and allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in their two games this season but RB DJ Harper has rushed for 5.5 yards per carry on 32 carries and 177 rushing yards for 2 touchdowns. Even if the offense takes a bit of time to gel this season, the Broncos are going to get a lot of chances of their defense forcing turnovers. The air attack is led by QB Kellen Moore who has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for 504 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. He now has 30 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions in his career at Boise State. Fresno State's secondary is not as good as they have looked in their first two games and I think they get torched by Moore in this game. Don't be fooled by this Fresno State defense and their hot start to the year. They allowed 30+ points per game in 2008 and even though they have 8 returning starters this season, the improvements cannot be all that great. Moore is going to feed of some play action all night long and I think the Broncos have success both on the ground (with Avery and Harper) as well as in the air connecting on deep routes with Pettis and Shoemaker. The Broncos will score some big time points tonight.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are always good for a big time upset or something close to it every season. That's the way Pat Hill has always coaches. He puts everything he has in his playbook on the line when playing in a big game against a big program as underdogs. The problem with that for Hill and his team is that they go for broke so when they lose they tend to lose big because they take a lot of risks. I also want to point out that this is a horrible spot for the Bulldogs. They are coming off a double overtime loss against Wisconsin, on the road, in the Central Time Zone, less than a week ago and to have to fly back home, work on a short week and then face one of the top offenses in the Nation...is next to impossible. I am not saying it hasn't been done before but the Bulldogs are completely deflated after their loss to Wisconsin. They had that game won but they let the Badgers fight back and overtime was needed. I don't know what motivation they have coming into this game. Had they beat Wisconsin, the flight back, the short week of practice and the general preparations for this game would have all been a lot easier and better. Not the case. Therefore I expect a very sluggish and uninspired performance by the Bulldogs in this game. Fresno State comes into this game averaging a whopping 41.0 points per game in two games and they have done it on 489.5 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. NOT SO FAST IN THIS GAME. Boise State has one of the best overall defenses in the Nation this season. They have allowed only 8 total points all season (two games), have allowed only 173.0 total yards of offense per game and have allowed only 3.2 yards per play in those games. Fresno State has run teams into the ground so far this year with their 244.5 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but I don't see them getting much against this very solid defensive line that has allowed only 34.5 rushing yards per game so far and 1.6 yards per carry (Mr. Blount could tell you about this). That will most definitely force Fresno State to throw the ball a lot more than they have this season which means QB Ryan Colburn is going to have to be ready. For a guy who took only 5 snaps prior to this season he has done well but despite his good play I am concerned with the 4 interceptions he has thrown in two games. Like I said, Pat Hill let's his guys do pretty much as they wish and he doesn't hold back. Well that's a problem against this Boise StateBoise State has yet to allow any first half points and that will be tough for a team like Fresno State that loves coming out of the gates with a bang and that has scored 27.5 points per first half this season. I just don't trust this offense can continue to put up big numbers after the big letdown loss in Wisconsin last week. Boise State's defense is too strong and they will make a ton of big plays.
Alright so whatever side you like to win the game here, take the spread. None of that garbage that you like Fresno State to cover but you think Boise State is going to win the game. You have to understand that Fresno State is going to be exhausted both mentally and physically for this game because the overtime loss to WisconsinBoise State has actually won 7 of the last 8 meetings and not only have they won those games but they have won them by 28.0 points per game on average. We all remember last year's blowout 51 point win in Boise and as much as Fresno wants to avenge that, I don't see them being all that motivated for this game. The last eight meetings between the teams (7-1 SU advantage for Boise State) have all been decided by an average of 19.0 points per game. We all think Boise State loves playing on that blue turf, and believe me they do, but they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on natural grass and they have covered 6 of their last 7 games as a road favorite. I also remember Boise State being a great Friday Night Lights team that is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Friday Night. They have covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and going against the Broncos is never a good idea. Fresno State has been one of the best home underdog wagers in all of college football the last three of four years but that comes to an end here as they are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and only 6-20 ATS in their last 26 WAC Conference games. Can you believe that Fresno State is 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss the game before. This is a demoralized team. They aren't coming close in this one.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.
Boise State 35, Fresno State 15
Saturday, September 19
East Carolina Pirates +7 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The East Carolina Pirates let me down last week. I felt they played well but they just couldn't handle something they had not prepared for and that was the passing attack of the West Virginia Mountaineers. Nobody really expected and the Pirates defense was caught off guard. No big deal. Believe me when I say that Skip Holtz has enough experience as an underdog against big name programs that he is going to come just as hard this week as he did last week and I actually think we see a lot more out of this East Carolina team than we did last week. This is a very experienced group that is coming off a 9 win season in 2008. The expectations are high and most experts have them pegged for a return to the CUSA Conference game in December. I would tend to agree with that but they only way they are going to make it there is if they start pulling off upsets on the road and this would be a great spot to do it. You know that a lot of the players are going to be motivated seeing how this is a battle of two Carolina teams and a lot of friends and family should in attendance for both sides. For a team that has done so well in the past as an underdog, I just don't see how the Pirates don't keep this close and put themselves in a position to win the game. East Carolina has struggled on offense this year which is a bit of a surprise with the group they have back. They are averaging 24.5 points per game on the season and have done that on only 278.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play. North Carolina's defense has been solid as expected but their two opponents this season have been 1) a team from the I-AA division and 2) Connecticut, the #99 ranked offense in the NCAA right now. On the ground I think the Pirates have run the ball quite well averaging 4.0 yards per carry on 125.5 rushing yards per game. That should be enough to throw the Heels off balance as North Carolina has allowed only 51.0 rushing yards per game this season. So far QB Patrick Pinkney has definitely not played the way we know he can play football and the fact that he has completed only 42.4% of his passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions is a little bit surprising. Have no fear. Pinkney's career numbers are 59.1% completion percentage with 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He is the leader of this team and although points could come at a premium in this game, he has enough experience to capitalize on some strong defense and turn that into points for the Pirates. The Tar Heels defensive success has come on the heels of some great pressure up front and the Heels have 8 sacks on the season already. Let me just tell you that Pinkney is very good on his feet and it's not easy to get a hold of him. The Pirates have been very good at holding onto the ball and the fact that apart from the interceptions they have not turned the ball over once, is a very encouraging fact. I don't think the Tar Heels have faced a half decent offense all season and the Pirates are going to score some points.
The North Carolina Tar Heels looked anything but impressive last week in their road game against Connecticut and had it not been for some late game blunders by a very young UConn team, we would be talking about a 1-1 SU North Carolina team that is no longer in the TOP 25 ranked teams in the Nation. That's not the case however and North Carolina comes into this game with their 2-0 SU record on the season looking to stay perfect before entering ACC Conference action next week at Georgia Tech. What I don't like about this team is the way their offense has sputtered. The East Carolina Pirates put up a good fight against West Virginia last week despite being outyarded by a good 200+ yards. They had things close at half time but the developped West Virginia offense was able to put them away. Same can't be said about this UNC offense which I think is actually going to have all sorts of problems scoring more than 20 points a game this season. Losing their top three receivers from last season (totalling 17 receiving touchdowns and 114 catches in 2008) is a big time deal. They also lost an electrifying punt returner and receiver in WR Brandont Tate and they just don't have the same kind of jump in their offense this season as they did when QB Cam Sexton was at the helms. North Carolina comes into this game averaging 26.0 points per game this season but they have done it on 321.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play. That's mediocre at best. East Carolina's defense allowed only 21.1 points per game last season, they return 7 starters on defense and 4 of their top 5 tacklers are back as well. They have allowed quite a few points per game this season but have done a good job holding opponents to only 5.4 yards per play in their two games. North Carolina loves to run the ball, averaging 41.0 attempts per game so far but it has given them only 147.5 rushing yards per game and only 3.6 yards per carry. The Pirates defense did a tremendous job last week against the WVU run and they have allowed only 3.3 yards per carry on the season. That will force UNC to throw the ball, something that was a complete fail last week against the UConn defense. QB TJ Yates has completed 61.7% of his passes but has thrown 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 6 times, the offensive line has struggled and I don't doubt for a second this Pirates defense is going to be aggressive. They were torched in the air in both their first games but West Virginia has the #19 ranked passing attack in the Nation while North Carolina sits at the 89th ranked passing attack. The Pirates are very aggressive tacklers and they have already recovered 3 fumbles in two games. I'm not saying the Tar Heels can't score points here but the Pirates defense will be inspired against an in-state rival and we should see their best performance to date. Again the Tar Heels are very young on offense and when returning less than 8 starters on offense in a season, the most points they have scored per game has been 21.2 and that was in 2007 (only time over 20.0 points per game with less than 8 returning starters). I think this is going to be a great game but the Tar Heels showed last week that they are not up to snuff with some of the other teams in the TOP 25 rankings.
I think this is going to be a doozy. East Carolina is a bit disappointed at not pulling off more of an upset bid last week at West Virginia but believe it or not nobody would have really seen it as that big of an upset. Now you give the Pirates a bit more incentive and you give them an extra week together and I think we have the upset bid on our hands here. I have consistently bet on the Pirates as an underdog the last few seasons and made some big cash. I don't see them failing to cover as a dog twice in a row seeing how East Carolina is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog. The Pirates somehow beat the Tar Heels by three points in 2007 but under the guidance of Skip Holtz. they have won 6 of their 16 games versus BCS Conference schools which is pretty damn impressive. Ironically enough Butch Davis is 14-13 SU as head coach of the Tar Heels and his first ever loss was at the hands of East Carolina. The Pirates have covered 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog and from what I can recall, and somehow this slipped my mind last week, North Carolina is only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They have covered only 2 of their last 7 versus CUSA Conference opponents and are a pathetic 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Kenan Memorial Stadium has not been kind to them and seeing how one of the best underdogs in college football is coming off an ATS loss, I say the Tar Heels struggle in this game. This just in, if you thought the UNC offense was bad last week, leading receiver TE Zack Pianalto is out for 3-4 weeks.
Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.
East Carolina 21, North Carolina 20
Clemson Tigers -6.5 (5 Units)
The Boston College Eagles are no doubt going to be a popular wager this week because at first look the line does look a bit off. Having said that. too many factors are being overlooked by several respected cappers and I am here to sway you to the other side. Sure the Eagles come into this game with a 2-0 SU record having played against Northeastern from the I-AA Division (or whatever the hell they call it now) and Kent State. Both were blowout wins for the Eagles but let's get serious here please. Kent State is ranked #105 in total offense in the NCAA and they are ranked #111 in total points scored per game in the NCAA. Unlike their counterpart Clemson Tigers, the Boston College Eagles have not even had a small taste of ACC Conference play yet and nothing is tougher than getting your first taste of it on the road against a team that has already played a conference game. Frank Spaziani is the new head coach (third time in four years they have a new head coach) and I don't know that he is ready for the big time just yet. I am well aware how good of an underdog Boston College has been in years past in conference play on the road but this year's team is different. Most of their underdog wins were with superstar QB Matt Ryan running the show. I have never been a fan of the play calling on offense and defense at Boston College and I think they are going to struggle in Death Valley. Boston College comes into this game averaging 44.0 points per game on 395.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Expect those numbers to drop each and every single game the rest of the way. Clemson is not about to let Boston College off the hook that easily. They have allowed 22.0 points per game so far, have allowed 358.5 total yards of offense per game while allowing 4.9 yards per play (that's while facing two I-A offenses in Middle Tennessee and Georgia Tech). This is by far one of the best defenses in the ACC Conference this season. I don't expect Clemson to allow 196.5 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry like they have in their first two games this season because they have an outstanding D-Line. Those numbers are skewed because they faced a Paul Johnson offense. The Eagles have run the ball tremendously well this season but that was against two very weak defenses. Now they get into some serious business against a Clemson defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 42.5% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers are going to come after QB's Justin Tuggle and David Shinskie all day long with their intense pass rush that has produced 3 sacks on the season. That pass rush has also allowed the secondary to get a jump on bad passes (Clemson has 5 interceptions this season in two games). What you need to know about Clemson is that they don't tackle to bring you down, they tackle to force the ball out which is why they have forced 7 fumbles already this season. Of the 88 points Boston College has scored this season, 62 have come in the first half so if Clemson can shut them down early, the Eagles probably won't score more than 10 points in this game. I expect another top notch performance by this Tigers defense.
The Clemson Tigers are coached by one of my least favorite coaches in all of college football Dabo Swinney but I have to like him for now seeing how this is the second time I back the Tigers in 2009. I was on them in their near come from behind win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week. The Tigers went down big at the half and they looked quite flustered along the way but their defense came into it's own in the second half, they started forcing turnovers and they made it a game before losing 30-27 on a late field goal. Okay losing is not nice but it's not that big of a deal. The last thing Clemson wants to do is allow another ACC Conference Atlantic Divison team go 3-0 SU on the year. The Tigers are actually 2-0 ATS right now, they are probably the best overall teams in the ACC Conference this season when it comes to experience and talent so you have to expect big things from them from here to the ACC Conference Championship Game. Clemson has never been to an ACC Championship Game and I know it was a goal of theirs before the season started. This is an angry team that probably feels they could have done a lot better finishing the Yellow Jackets off last week but some mental mistakes on both sides of the ball cost them in the end. The Tigers come into this game averaging 32.0 points per game this season on 373.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play. Nothing impressive but decent considering the good defenses they faced. Boston College has obviously been lights out on defense considering the opponents they have faced which explains why they have allowed only 7 points this season on 155.0 total yards of offense and 2.6 yards per play. In 2008, the Eagles had one of the best run defenses in the Nation and I expect much of the same this year. However, Clemson can really run the ball and although they average only 3.9 yards per carry in their first two games, I think RB CJ Spiller and WR Jacoby Ford are going to be effective enough to setup some big plays in the air. Clemson has no choice but to go to the air in this game against a Boston College defense that allowed two weak opponents to complete 56.9% of their passes the last two weeks while recording only 1 sack in those games. I know QB Kyle Parker does not have impressive numbers just yet but he does have 5 touchdown passes in two games and he does have a big arm that averages 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles don't have much of a pass rush and if Parker has enough time to find some receivers down field, he has quite the arm to do it. Boston College has one of the weakest and most inexperienced secondaries in the Conference and this is a very good chance for Clemson to expose this defense for the fraud that they have shown to be. Ford and WR Marquan Jones (who has 3 receptions for 36.0 yards per reception this season) are going to have a field day getting open down the field and again if Parker has the time to throw, which I think he will, he is going to find it easy to make some big plays in this game. This is a team that can either hit you up the gut with some outstanding run plays or they can trick you up the middle, run some play action and hit some electryfing receivers downfield. This should be a breakout performance for the Clemson offense.
I have to right away say that Boston College was probably the best road underdog in the NCAA the last two seasons where they went 5-1 ATS as road underdogs. Having said that, they keep replacing head coaches and although I think coach Spaziani has a much bigger football brain than coach Jagodzinski did the last two seasons here, most of those wins as underdogs and most of the success the Eagles had in the past was based on superstar QB Matt Ryan being the leader of this team. Well Ryan is obviously gone and even though this team did not skip much of a beat in 2008, the offense is just not the same and if they go down in games the defense will suffer as well. Boston College's loss to Clemson in 2008 was their first to the Tigers since 1958 and it seems the curse is finally done. I will warn all Clemson backers again that Boston College is probably the best road underdog of the last three seasons in College football. Having said that, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 ACC Conference games and are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games when coming off a win of 20+ points. Clemson on the other hand have covered 4 of their last 5 ACC Conference games and I think they put an end to the trend that the underdog always covers the spread in this series. This is one of the best Clemson teams in a very long time and we see why in this game.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 ACC Conference games.
Clemson 31, Boston College 13
Virginia Tech Hokies -5 (5 Units)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are pretty much the consensus pick (and they have been all summer) as the team to beat for the Big 12 North crown. Does it really matter anymore who represents this Division in the Title game seeing how the South is just too strong? Regardless, this is a very good Huskers team that I have not seen much of this season but what I do know about them is that they can score some serious points. The Huskers are coming off a 38-9 win over Arkansas State at home which followed a 49-3 home win over Florida Atlantic on opening weekend a few weeks ago. Okay now that those two weak opponents are out of the way we find out what this team is all about. Sure it's nice to win and cover two spreads that exceed three touchdowns but now you have to play against one of the best defenses in this Nation and you have to do it on the road. Virginia Tech is ranked #14 in the Nation right now. The last few times Nebraska went on the road to faced ranked opponents they lost Texas Tech by 6 points (2008), they lost to Oklahoma by 34 points (2008), they lost to Missouri by 35 points (2007), they lost to Kansas by 37 points (2007), they lost to Texas by 3 (2007), they lost to USC by 18 (2006) and the beat goes on. You get the point. Nebraska comes into this game averaging 43.5 points per game and they have done that on 492.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.8 yards per play. I promise you it won't be that easy against this Bud Foster defense. The Hokies have not allowed more than 20 points per game in a season since the 2003 season and even though allow 22.0 points per game this year, their opponents have averaged only 375.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Nebraska has bulldozed both their opponents for 197.5 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. For some reason the Hokies have yet to shore up their run defense that allowed less than 100 rushing yards per game in three of their last four season. Alabama and Marshall both had success running the ball on these guys but it was mostly the Alabama game that killed their stats. As much as the Huskers run the ball they are still a pass first offense and that is going to be a problem. QB Zac Lee is fresh off the scout team and this is his first ever taste of a big time college game. He has actually been outstanding against crappy competition with his 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception but opponents have completed only 49.2% of their passes against Foster's defense for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Hokies are going to blitz their asses off against the inexperienced QB and judging by the fact that they already have 6 sacks in two games, I think they can force some bad decisions by the Junior QB. The Hokies have forced 3 fumbles this season, they have recovered 2 of those fumbles and their defense has allowed only 11.5 points per game in the first three quarters of play. Nebraska loves to gun sling and they love to move the ball through the air. The only problem is that the most any team passed on this Hokies defense in 2008 was 176 yards (last home game versus Virginia) and Bud Foster knows how to shut down some of the best offenses in the Nation. I think the Huskers get a nice taste of reality here. Lee has been impressive in scrimmages and practice and to start the year but let's face it, he is in way over his head here.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have yet to really impress anyone this season and a lot of experts and media outlets are predicting this team to lose this game. WELL NOT SO FAST! I don't care if this is a revenge spot for Nebraska and I don't care if Virginia Tech's defense has looked crappy at times this year. We are talking about a team that has won 10+ games in each of their last 5 season and a team that is well on their way to doing the same in 2009. Their season opening loss to Alabama in Atlanta (ESPN Game of the Week) was a tough one but it was an easy prediciton because the two teams don't really match up. This is an offense that is only going to get better by the game and I say that because they were young last season when they averaged only 22.1 points per game (one of their lowest ever in the Beamer era) and now they return 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball so there are no excuses. I would have to say that when you are looking for balance in talent between the QB and RB positions, the Hokies probably have one of the best combos in the ACC Conference after NC State and close to Miami Florida (Harris/Cooper/James are sick). So again there are no excuses this season on offense for this team. The Hokies come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 380.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Don't forget this offense feeds off the defense. Nebraska's defense has yet to be tested in 2009 despite allowing only 6.0 points per game on 319.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. The Huskers allowed almost 30 points per game in 2008 and they lost two of their top three pass rushers in the off-season. On the ground, after forgetting to show up against Alabama, the Hokies rushed for 444 yards against Marshall at home and now average 254.0 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry. We all know QB Tyrod Taylor is a dual threat but he is averaging only 1.9 yards per carry. RB's Ryan Willams and David Wilson have been studs so far with 6 combined rushing touchdowns in two games. The Huskers were run on for 3.8 yards per carry against two shitty offenses this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they allowed the Hokies to run for 200+ yards. In the air, Taylor has completed 50.0% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Not bad. He will have to be better though against the pass rush of the Huskers because in two games he has been sacked 5 times. Nebraska's defense has allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt but they have also forced 7 fumbles but only recovered 2 of those drops. Getting a quick start is going to be huge for the Hokies because they average 26 points per first half right now. I won't deny the Huskers defense is strong and it won't be that easy for the Hokies to move the ball but the Hokies defense is going to be all over the young QB of the Huskers and I think Bud Foster is going to let his players make some huge plays to setup their offense for some points. The Huskers will score in this game but much like years past against ranked teams on the road, they are going to get whalloped in the end and things should fall apart in the second half. When this team can't get their offense rolling, they give up pretty fast.
These two teams met last year in Lincoln and Frank Beamer showed the world what Beamer ball was all about in a 35-30 road win as a +7 underdog. That has a lot of experts calling for the Huskers to return the favor this time around but I just don't see that happening with such a young QB that has little or no experience playing in a wild environment like the one he is going to face today. Beamer is a big fan of making statements for the ACC Conference since his teams always seem to be the best. It should be know that Virginia Tech is 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games versus non-conference BCS conference opponents and they have won those games by an average of 20.0 points per game. You also have to know that after big wins, team like Nebraska tend to grow a fat head and they don't follow up too well. The Huskers have followed their last 15 wins with only 4 spread covers in those games. The Huskers have also been horrendous as a road underdog going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in that spot. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Virginia Tech is quite the opposite of Nebraska because they are well coached and know how to follow wins. The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before and they have covered 24 of their last 35 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. I really like Beamer to once again school a non-conference opponent at home.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they scored 40+ points.
Virginia Tech 41, Nebraska 17
Oregon State Ducks -5 (10 Units)
The Utah Utes think they can bust the BCS for the second year in a row after running the table in 2008 and then shocking the world by demolishing #4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Well that was then and this is now. This is by no means the same team as last year's team. First and foremost for those of you who have not watched them play in 2009 yet, the Utes bring back only 5 starters on offense and only 12 starters are back on both sides of the ball combined. Sure they are 2-0 SU on the season and once again on their way to perfection with the #81 ranked toughest schedule in the Nation but this is where they finally lose. They have not lost a game since the season finale versus BYU in 2007 (heartbreaking but exciting loss) and there is something about this year's team that tells me that they are going to lose 2-3 games. The Utes looked good against Utah State in their opener despite not coming close to the 20.5 point spread. They looked even shakier in their first road game of the season last week beating San Jose State by only 10 points as a 13 point favorite. Now comes the real test. QB Brian Johnson is gone, he passed for 27 touchdowns last season. Also gone this season are the top three receivers on this team who combined for 15 TD catches in 2008. So they are rebuilding in a way. The Utes average 29.5 points per game this season on 508.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play in those games. I know the Oregon defense looks bad because they have allowed 27.5 points per game and have allowed 406.0 total yards of offense in those games but they have allowed only 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Utes are the #21 rushing team in the Nation with 242.0 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but there is a problem. RB Matt Asiata (12 rushing TD's last season and 250 rushing yards this season with 3 TD's) is probably out this game. Nonetheless teams have tried to run all over the Ducks D-Line but Oregon has held their ground and allowed only 3.2 yards per carry. Impressive. The Utes have been successful moving the ball through the air with NCAAJC Offensive Player of the Year in 2008 QB Terrance Cain. I have to admit he has been solid. Having said that, he has not been tested. The Ducks have been thrown on big time in both games they played and they have held their opponents to 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Oregon's pass rush is relentless and they are going to come after Cain from all angles, having already recorded 7 sacks in two games. Believe me the Utah offensive line has not seen this kind of pressure all season and it will be tough for them to protect Cain like they have done so far this year and he won't have the luxury of time in the pocket in this game. Like many other young teams in football, Utah can't seem to hold onto the football as they have already lost a whopping 4 fumbles this season. Oregon is a vicious defense that tackles with a purpose and they have already recovered 4 fumbles of their own with some huge hits and some aggressive tackling. Expect a lot of that in this game again. Utah has lacked big time discipline so far this season with their 8 penalties per game costing them 52.5 yards per game. I don't think they are ready for a PAC 10 defense like this one. Any defense that can hold Purdue and Boise State to a combined 55 points in those two games should be proud. Things will get easier in this game and I think Utah struggles without their star Running Back. Even if Asiata plays, the Ducks are good against the run. Not a good matchup for Utah.
The Oregon Ducks know their season is on the line in this game. They have a home game against a team that has not lost a single football game since the end of the 2007 season and that probably has them motivated more than anything. The Ducks recovered from the Boise State fiasco with a very close but gut checking win over Purdue last weekend and even though they didn't cover the spread, the Ducks got a lot of anger out and they got the win. Now we continue with the rest of their season. Oregon has a stretch of four straight home games right now and they need to fine tune their game heading into the big game against California next week. We all know what happened to RB LeGarette Blount in Boise and as unfortunate as that was, this team has to move on and they have to continue playing for what matters. PAC 10 teams tend to generate a plethora of running backs and sure enough RB LaMichael James has already emerged as the next star running back to play for the Ducks with his 7.1 yards per carry on 11 carries. How about RB Kenjon Barner with his 6.8 yards per carry? The bottom line is there is a guy at every position on this football team waiting to carry the load for the departed and/or the fallen. Chip Kelly earned a lot of respect for his actions following the disaster in Boise and I think he has his team's attention heading into the meat of their schedule which ranks #11 toughest in the Nation. Oregon comes into this game averaging only 23.0 points per game and averaging only 254.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. That is horrendous. Having said that, Utah's defense did not look good in either of their two games allowing 15.5 points per game and more importantly allowing 5.2 yards per play against two very mediocre offensive teams. This is the game we find out who takes over the running duties for the season. The Blount incident should be out of players' minds right now and I expect someone to emerge with a huge day on the ground against a Utah defense that allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry this season. QB Jeremiah Masoli is a dual threat QB who can really move and I think he is going to make some big plays against this defense once the ground game opens up. He has yet to complete a touchdown pass despite running for two touchdowns of his own but against weaker teams Utah allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt and they managed only 3 total sacks in two games against weak programs. Utah has yet to recover a single fumble on the season, they have 2 interceptions and seeing how the fumble the ball 2-3 times a game, this cannot be good for their offense and their chances to keep this close. Oregon has had issues of their own holding onto the ball but like I said before, the Utah tackling has been horrendous and they have yet to find a way to jar the ball loose from opponents. I think Masoli has a huge game on the ground in this one and I think the Ducks come out of their shell.
Too many people are investing way too much into last year's Utah team. Believe me when I say they are not going to come close to the 13 wins they had in 2008 and they lost too many players (impact players) to be the same team. Having said that, their star RB is probably out with an injury in this game and that leaves the door open for the Oregon offense to put this away early. I would take Utah at home against a PAC 10 team any day of the week but on the road, the visitor is only 1-9 SU when Utah faces a PAC 10 team. WOW! I really think the Ducks roll. They are now 29-2 SU in their last 31 home games versus non-conference opponents. Utah is by far the best underdog wager in the NCAA the last 5+ years covering 25 of their last 31 as underdogs but this is a great fade spot. They have never had success against PAC 10 teams going 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and this is a team that does not pick up steam until later in the year and that is when most of the upsets have come as they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games played in September. Oregon is jacked up for this game and they have followed 4 of their last 5 wins with ATS spread covers the next time out. Now that the LaGarette Blount situation is well behind them, I expect Chip Kelly to let this offense loose and I expect a huge win by the Ducks in what should be by far their best effort this season.
Trend of the Game: Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.
Oregon 26, Utah 13
Arizona Wildcats +5.5 (10 Units)
The Arizona Wildcats finally did it in 2008, they got to a Bowl Game under head coach Mike Stoops and they did it in fashion crusing Arizona State on the final day of the regular season. Not only did the Wildcats make it to the Las Vegas Bowl but the Wildcats lay a beating on BYU as -3 point favorites and that pretty much catapulted them into this season with the expectations of making it to their second straight Bowl Game after going 10 years without one. So far so good. I know their opponents have not been top notch but beating Central Michigan (who have one of the most underrated QB's in the Nation) is not an easy task but the Wildcats beat them 19-6 in their home opener and then followed that up with a confidence boosting 34-17 win over Northern Arizona last week. Now comes the road action and time for the Wildcats to make a statement. Arizona managed 36.8 points per game last season and although QB Will Tuitama is gone, his replacement looks to be just as good. What bettors don't seem to realize is that Arizona lost four very close games last season which means they could have easily won 9 or 10 games. This team is better than they get credit for and they will open eyes this season. Arizona comes into this game averaging 26.5 points per game on a whopping 503.5 total yards of offense this season and 6.7 yards per play. Iowa's defense has been rock solid so far allowing 9.5 points per game and allowing 328.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. My only concern is that their defense is ranked #65 in the Nation after playing against Iowa State and Northern Iowa (almost lost the game). RB Nicholas Grigsby is a superstar in the making and he has rushed for 325 yards this season, 8.6 yards per carry and 3 rushng touchdowns. WOW! The team has rushed for 305.5 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry which is why I think Iowa's defense is in big time trouble and the Hawkeyes have allowed 137.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. QB Matt Scott has been sensational completing 66.0% of his passes for 352 passing yards, 7.0 yards per pass attempt and some big time plays. He has also rushed for 131 yards on 8.2 yards per carry. UNREAL! Iowa's defense is definitely more solid against the pass where they have 5 interceptions and have held their opponents to 52.2% pass completion rate. Having said that, Scott is a threat both in the air and on the ground and I really think Arizona is going to pound away at the Hawkeyes weak interior all afternoon in this one. Iowa just does not have answer for the Scott/Grigsby combo the are about to face and when the running game is in full flight, you can expect Scott to make some big plays down field. Arizona is a lot more disciplined this season with their 5.0 penalties per game and I really like for this team to continue impressing the Nation with their high flying offense. Arizona should surprise here.
The Iowa Hawkeyes think they have it going on now that their rivalry game is out of the way and now that they have escaped the first two games of the season (probably the easiest two by far) without that major upset loss, they can finally concentrate on winning this conference. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! Don't get me wrong, this team has 14 returning starters and a bunch of their losses in 2008 were by a few points. However, I am not impressed at all with the way they have come out the gates swinging. For a team that wants to play on New Year's Day they need to shape up or they will find themselves on a losing streak quite fast. I remember a home game last season when everyone was guaranteeing that Iowa was going to destroy Northwestern at home as -8 point favorites and sure enough that is the last time Iowa lost at home and it just goes to show that they can certainly be beaten on their home turf. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 9 win season that saw them stomp on South Carolina in the Outback Bowl but I think the loss of RB Shonn Greene is a much a bigger deal than anyone is talking about seeing how he rushed for 1889 yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 8 receptions. The Hawkeyes also lost 8 receiving touchdowns as two of their top three receivers from last year are gone. Iowa comes into this game averaging 26.0 points per game and they have done it on 377.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. This is an Arizona defense that allowed only 21.3 points per game last season while returning only 3 starters. You can imagine how good they are now that 7 starters are back. So far this season the Wildcats defense has allowed only 11.5 points per game, they have allowed 204.0 total yards of offense in those games on only 4.1 yards per play. I personally think Iowa will struggle to move the ball in this one. They did look decent on the ground despite the loss of Greene and so far they average 4.2 yards per carry but Arizona is allowing only 70.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Richard Stanzi does play with fire in his eyes and he has completed 58.8% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. The Arizona secondary will give you some room to complete passes but they won't let you run with it. The Wildcats have allowed only 4.4 yards per pass attempt and they have a vicious pass rush that has 6 sacks in two games. Iowa cannot protect Stanzi as we saw in the 5 times he has already been sacked this season and all that pressure is going to result in some bad throws and some bad decisions. The Wildcats also have 3 interceptions as a result of the pressure up front and Iowa has fumbled the ball 3 times in two games. The Iowa offense is mediocre at best and they have been very slow out of the gates in both their games this season scoring only 8.5 points per first half of their two games. Arizona's defense is loaded with experienced playmakers and the Wildcats should make it a tough afternoon for Stanzi and company.
You would think most Arizona Wildcat players were too young to remember the last time this team went on the road to face a Big Ten opponent. Actually it's more like you would hope they were too young because it was in 2003 and Arizona got whalloped 59-7 in West Lafayette. I don't see that happening here as Arizona is 6-5 SU lifetime versus Iowa. I am well aware that Iowa has an outstanding home record against non-conference opponents and they have lost something like only 1 of their last 16 but Arizona is a solid team. Mike Stoops loves being the underdog and he is pretty damn good at it as Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. I know his track record against Big Ten opponents is not good at all but the Wildcats matchup very well in this one and this is a great spot for them to open some eyes. Iowa lost too much on offense from a year ago when they scored 30.3 points per game and despite the return of the QB Stanzi, losing one of the Nation's top running back is a huge deal and so is losing some prime time receivers. Iowa is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games played versus PAC 10 Conference opponents so you can toss out all advantage this team had of playing versus a PAC 10 opponent that has struggled against Big Ten opponents. I think Arizona is too good on both sides of the ball and this game is going to be decided by less than 3 points either way.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Arizona 24, Iowa 22
Oregon State Beavers +1 (10 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats already made me some loot this season in their 47-15 season opening road win at Rutgers as a +4.5 point underdog and it seems like the Cincinnati love train is in full motion now that the team is 2-0 SU with their win over SE Missouri State last week. Can everyone please calm the hell down. Beating Rutgers was nice but it was the first game and the Scarlet Knights looked shell shocked for the second straight season. Then came the win over a I-AA school. So what's the big deal? Don't get me wrong here, I like Brian Kelly a lot and I think he is one of the only college football coaches in the Nation that can actually turn nothing into something when it comes to his players but let's face it, the real test starts now for this Cincinnati team that returns only 1 starter on defense. It has not shown yet that they are young in all corners and facets of their defense but it will show the minute they run into a decent offense. The Bearcats (not counting their loss to Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl) are on a 8 game regular season win streak having not lost since their 40-16 fiasco last season at Connecticut as a -2 point favorite. Sound a little bit familiar with those odds or what? The Cincinnati Bearcats are the second highest scoring team in the NCAA right now at 58.5 points per game on 571.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.8 yards per play in those games. Believe me that is not going to last past these next few games although the Bearcats do have quite the week schedule after this game (Fresno State at home and Miami Ohio on the road). Oregon State has allowed only 14.0 points per game this season and they have allowed those points on only 330.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Bearcats are tearing it up with 197.5 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry but they won't find it that easy to run the ball against this big defensive line and great group of linebackers that have allowed only 79.5 rushing yards per game so far and 3.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Cincinnati QB Tony Pike has been one of the best in the Nation so far, completing 77.2% of his passes for 591 passing yards, 10.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception. The Oregon State defense doesn't bring much pressure and they don't make flashy but that they do well is they limit quick moving offenses to smaller portion plays and have allowed only 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season. We all know this is going to be a game with some points scored and I think it has to be mentioned that despite not fumbling the ball a single time this season, the Bearcats are due for some mistakes and it might come against an Oregon State team that has forced 3 fumbles and recovered 2 of those fumbles. The Beavers have yet to allow a single point scored against them in the first half this season and this is a very tough environment for a young Cincinnati team to win in. Rutgers was tough too but I just don't think Pike will be as comfortable throwing the ball nor do I think he will have the success he had the last two weeks without an effective running attack. The Bearcats are a good team but this is a tough matchup for them.
The Oregon State Beavers continue to be one of the more surprising team season after season. Nobody really expected them to win 10 games in 2006 but they dide. Nobody expected them to win more than 7 games in 2007 but they won 9 and nobody thought they could win more than 6-7 games in 2008 but they ended up winning 9 games again. So now that we have established that Mike Riley is a great coach and that he knows how to prepare for and win games the team has no business winning, I am sure you will gladly put your money on this team knowing that they have not had a losing ATS season since 2005. The Beavers kicked off their new season with a 34-7 win over I-AA opponent Portland State and they followed that up last week with a rather mediocre effort on the road as -6.5 point favorites at UNLV in a sloppy 23-21 win. The Beavers are 2-0 SU on the season and no matter how many times you think this team is set to have a down year or how many times you think they are rebuilding, Riley finds a way to get the most out of his players which is why this matchup is so interesting because both head coaches here have great experience using younger players and growing them up fast. The Beavers have only 10 returning starters this season but that's the same 2008 where they won 9 games. Oregon State comes into this game averaging 28.5 points per game so far this season and if anyone is experienced it's their offense with their 407.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. The Bearcats defense is very young, they lack experience but they have held their ground so far this season allowing only 9.0 points per game on 238.5 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play. Expect that to change. We all know about RB Jacquizz Rodgers who tore it up against USC last season. He has 269 rushing yards this season on 6.4 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns but is a bit banged up. Regardless, the Beavers have rushed for 167.5 yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. Cincinnati's D-Line is about to be tested here. Sure they have allowed only 59.5 rushing yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry but neither Rutgers nor the I-AA team they played can run the ball. Rodgers is a different animal and if he makes into the second level of tackles (linebackers), he is going to break some huge 40+ yard runs. That type of running game should set things up for Senior QB Sean Canfield who is off to a blistering start having completed 78.6% of his passes for 356 passing yards, 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He has a ton of experience and WR James Rodgers is a star in the making with his deep ball abilities. Watch out for Jacquizz Rodgers though because he is all over the place and Canfield is going to confuse a Cincinnati secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Sure they have 6 sacks and sure they have 6 interceptions already but Canfield has yet to throw an interception this season and although he has been sacked 5 times, he has the dumpoff option to Rodgers and we should see quite a few screen passes because Danny Langsdorf's offense knows what they have coming from the Bearcats. The Beavers have been very good with the ball and have yet to lose a fumble this season which is important against such an aggressive defense like Cincinnati's. You have to know that Oregon State scored at least 27 points in each of their home games last season and I think this is going to be a rude awakening for some members of this young Cincinnati defense who don't know what they are in for. I think the Beavers roll in this game but Cincinnati will keep it interesting as always.
Alright so everyone still has that blowout win over Rutgers on the road in their minds. FORGET ABOUT THAT PLEASE. Cincinnati is not as good as everyone is making them out to be and if you must know, Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in their last six non-conference away games versus teams from BCS Conferences and they have lost those games by an average of 21.0 points per game. Explain that one please. These two teams met a couple of years ago and Cincinnati won at home 34-3 but the Beavers turned the ball over a whopping 7 times in that game and actually had the advantage in yards gained. There is no arguing that Cincinnati has been a great September team since the arrival of Brian Kelly and that is mainly because he always has his players ready to play. However, Cincinnati has covered the spread in only 6 of their last 21 games as a road favorite and only 2 of their last 7 non-conference games. They are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a win of 20+ points the game before and this is a big time letdown game for these guys. Oregon State is in a perfect spot as home underdogs here because they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games an an underdog in general and they are a very impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Beavers have mastered the artificial turf going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on this stuff and like I said before, betting against them at home is always a bad idea seeing how they have covered the spread in 40 of their last 60 home games. I think Mike Riley is going to outcoach Brian Kelly in a battle of two young squads looking for some cheddar. BEAVERS TO THE BANK FOR ME!
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in their last six non-conference road games versus BCS Conference opponents losing by an average of 21.0 points per game.
Oregon State 35, Cincinnati 17
Northwestern Wildcats -3 (10 Units)
The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off quite the 9-4 season that saw them reach the Alamo Bowl against an explosive Missouri offense as +12 point underdogs. Not only did the Wildcats cover the spread in that game but they almost won instead losing an overtime thriller by seven points. The Cats definitely used that game to build on this season as they return only 13 starters and lost most of their offensive stars from 2008 (Tyrell Sutton is gone, so is CJ Bacher and the top 4 receivers on this team). How have the Wildcats reacted so far? Well they are 2-0 SU on the season, they have a very good chance of being 3-0 SU after this game and although their opponents have been mediocre at best, a win is a win when you are trying to reach a Bowl Game and the Wildcats will take it. You have to keep in mind how well this team has played on the road sinze Pat Fitzgerald took over as head coach (last year mostly). I know they have covered only one game as an away favorite under the guidance of Fitzgerald but expectations were much higher in their two away favorite ATS losses in 2008 and you have to keep in mind Northwestern's 2006 season opening win on the road at Miami Ohio as -6 point favorites. The Wildcats come into this game averaging a whopping 37.0 points per game this season on 414.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. The core of their defense is back but the offense is pretty new. Having said that, Syracuse's defense is supposed to be better but I don't know. They have allowed 25.5 points per game this season on 339.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Wildcats have not skipped a beat since losing Tyrell Sutton as they average 203.0 rushing yards per game in their two games on 4.0 yards per carry. The Wildcats already have 7 rushing touchdowns this season and although Syracuse has not allowed much on the ground this season, I expect a dangerous ground attack to open things up in the air for Northwestern. QB Mike Kafka is a Senior and he is the leaders of this offense. He has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 350 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt but does not have a touchdown pass as of yet. That's about to change. WR Andrew Brewer is emerging as a big time threat down the field and we should see some big plays from the Wildcats against a Syracuse defense that has allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Kafka has been sacked only 1 time, he is a big time run threat on the ground as well coming off a 416 rushing yard season on 4.7 yards per carry and the pressure that Syracuse has brought the last few games won't hurt a QB who can run around. I really like that Northwestern has been aggressive on offense even if it means losing the ball a few times a game. They average 29.0 points per first half this season and they are going to need the quick start in this game to put the crowd out of it early. Kafka has too much experience and is too dangerous a player to contain for a defense that has allowed 30+ points the last two seasons. I think Northwestern has their way in this game and we should see them win quite easily.
The Syracuse Orangemen are one of those teams you just cringe a bit when you hear about their upcoming highlights on television. They are sorta like the Detroit Lions of college football. One of those teams where there is no end whatsoever in sight in terms of winning football games on a consistent basis and making it back to the post-season for the first time since the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl against Georgia Tech (isn't that where it all went bad in a 51-13 loss as +5 point underdog?). The Orangemen opened the season with an impressive and unexpected 23-20 overtime loss to the Minnesota Gophers as +7 point home underdogs but Minnesota looked horrendous in that game and Syracuse was a bit jacked up for their home opener. They followed that up with a decent 28-7 loss at Penn State last week as +29.5 point road underdogs. Everyone pretty much thought they would get blown out of the water in that game but they held their own, mind you Penn State kept it simple, hid their playbook and ran some basic offensive formations all game. We all know Syracuse is going to win their home game against I-AA Maine next weekend and my concern is that this team has their eyes on that guaranteed prize a little too early. Starting with this game the Orangemen play 6 straight home games and this is probably going to determine what kind of season these kids are actually going to have. Syracuse comes into this game averaging only 13.5 points per game this season and they have done that on a very mediocre 228.5 total yards of offense per game and only 3.5 yards per play in those games. What has skipped people's minds coming into this game is the fact that although depleted on the offensive side of things, Northwestern returns 8 starters from a defense that allowed only 20.2 points per game last season. So far this season they have allowed only 262.5 total yards of offense per game and have allowed only 19.0 points per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Syracuse has struggled big time rushing for only 77.5 yards per game on a horrendous 2.5 yards per carry and that is not about to get any better against a Northwestern defense that has allowed only 118.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry this season. That is going to force QB Greg Paulus to throw a lot more than he wants to. Paulus has been decent completing 64.7% of his passes for 272 passing yards, 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions but that's just not enough. The Northwestern defense allows a lot of short passing plays but they also don't allow many yards after the catch and held their opponents to 6.2 yards per pass attempt this season. I think the Wildcats are going to bring some big time pressure on Paulus in this one as he has been sacked 5 times in two games and the pressure has forced some bad throws. This is a Northwestern secondary that is very quick, very aggressive and that has been rewarded with 4 interceptions in two games. I think they come up with at least 1-2 in this game because again Paulus under pressure has resulted in interceptions and this should be no different. Apart from WR Mike Williams who is the one and only star on this Syracuse team, the offense is putrid and I think they are going to find it hard to move the chains against a defense that had a whopping 34 sacks last season and that brings back the core of their pass rushers. Safety Jordan Mabin is a star in the making playing with a bunch of Senior DB's and they should have no problems shutting Williams down and forcing Paulus to throw elsewhere. The offense in Syracuse has been atrocious for years and this is not a Northwestern defense that is about to let that change. I am going all the way with Northwestern's defense to dominate this game.
I think a large chunk of the betting public is quickly assuming that Syracuse is finally going to win a home game and that their home losing streak will come to an end here. Not so fast. I want to point out right away that Northwestern is 5-1 SU in their last six non-conference away games versus BCS Conference schools which is impressive. Last year's game (30-10 win by Northwestern) was close, sorta, not really but kinda. I mean the Wildcats did amass 200+ more total yards of offense than Syracuse yet they were down 10-9 in the 3rd quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points. It's very rare that Northwestern loses two straight spread covers and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss the game before. The Wildcats are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on artificial turf and they were successful on the road last season so I expect the same in 2009. I know I got burned the last time I bet against the Orange at home against Minnesota but they are still 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. You get the feeling Syracuse is eventually going to break out of their shell and win some games as underdogs but I don't see it happening against a Wildcats defense that is very underrated and that has played better than most handicappers know in the last couple of seasons. I am all over Northwestern here.
Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss the game before.
Northwestern 31, Syracuse 19
West Virginia Mountaineers +7 (10 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers know they are not seven point underdogs against an floundering SEC team like Auburn but all they can really do about it is hit that Jordan-Hare Stadium grass on Saturday night and show the Nation that they are in ways better than the teams of recent years that had Pat White and Steve Slaton on them. The Mountaineers have not skipped a beat it seems since White left for good after last season and what's hard to believe is that West Virginia averaged only 24.5 points per game in their 9 win season in 2008. The offense lost their superstar and one of their best players ever but again they are coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances in their opening two games. It seems that after two games the offense took two step forward on last year and the defense took two steps backwards. The Mountaineers disposed of I-AA school Liberty in their opener and then took care of business against a pesky East Carolina team easily covering the -5.5 as a home favorite. I was very impressed by the play of guys like QB Jarrett Brown in their first two games and again even though this team is returning only 12 starters on both sides of the ball from last season, they have looked good and this is definitely a game they can win. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging 34.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 473.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.4 yards per play. WOW! Pat White who? Auburn's defense is always going to be solid and they do return some of their top players from last year so it's understandable that they have allowed 18.5 points per game this season on 271.0 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Mountaineers have not missed a step from last season averaging 185.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry as both RB Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown have combined for some big time plays. Auburn's run defense has been decent but not all that good as they have allowed 131.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season and both Brown and Devine know what it's like to play against this defense having both been here in 2008. In the air, Brown has been damn impressive completing 75.4% of his passes for 577 passing yards, 10.1 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. I think Auburn's pass defense is solid, I think they won't allow the 30+ points they allowed last year against Pat White and the Mountaineers as their opponents this season have completed only 53.7% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Having said that, the Tigers have not seen a run-pass threat offense like this one since their meeting with WVU and again they were torched for 30+ points in that game. Brown is very good on his feet, he has thrown only 1 interception and he should have no problems escaping the Auburn pass rush that has generated 4 sacks this season and 3 interceptions. My only concern as always with teams that run a lot is fumbles and the Mountaineers have lost 3 of them already this season but Auburn has yet to force a fumble, their tacklers are not as other SEC defenses and West Virginia should be fine. This is an explosive offense that needs both Brown and Devine involved in almost every single play but if they managed to torch Auburn last season, I imagine they will have a decent time scoring points again today.
The Auburn Tigers are coming off what could be called their most disappointing season in decades as they finished the 2008 campaign with a 5-9 SU record and finished near the bottom of the pack in the SEC West Division. I don't know why so many people see this season as being any different. I mean the team returns only 15 starters from last season's team that could only muster 17.3 points per game on offense. They have a new head coach in Gene Chizik who was a pathetic 5-19 SU at Iowa State the last two seasons so it must feel good for coach to start the year with two big wins over two absolutely nobody opponents. Alright so this team is now 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with a 23 point win over Louisiana Tech in their opener which was followed by a 25 point win over Mississippi State. The oddsmakers doubted the Tigers in their first two games setting very low spread for both games. Now the oddsmakers are back on the Auburn bandwagon and they have set a line more appropriate for this team. I know the Tigers exploded on offense in their first two games but I still don't see how they are going to be all that much better than last year's team and two games doesn't really mean much. Most of the offense from 2008's putrid season is back this year and although they might improve a bit, I expect times this season where the media calls for Gus Malzhahn's head. Auburn comes into this game averaging 43.0 points per game this season which is a big wow and they have done that on 572.5 total yards of offense per game (ranked #4 in the Nation right now) and 7.1 yards per play. Well not so fast against this underrated West Virginia defense that has allowed 20.0 points per game to open the season and allowed 268.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.3 yards per play in those games. Auburn is the #2 rushing offense in the NCAA right now averaging 345.5 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards carry. The Tigers have a plethora of halfbacks who can carry the ball for big yardage but they won't find it that easy against a very big West Virginia defensive front that has allowed only 75.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. That will force the Tigers to throw a lot more than they have and I am not a fan of their passing game at all. QB Chris Todd had a tough time in 2008 and his 2009 season is not going all that much better. He has completed only 55.1% of his passes for 441 passing yards, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Believe me the mistakes are coming. West Virginia has allowed their opponents to complete only 52.8% of their passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt. They have 2 sacks and 2 interceptions, they don't pass rush all that much but rather play a contain style of defense that doesn't allow big plays. At some point this defense is going to have to start forcing more turnovers. The Mountaineers have frustrated opposing offenses with their defensive sets that create confusion and that has resulted in their opponents this season averaging 8.5 penalties per game for 72.0 yards per game. I think West Virginia matches up very well with this Auburn offense and they have enough toughness to fight off a strong running attack. You also have to consider that the Mountaineers offense is going to control the clock and keep their defense fresh in this one.
What the hell is this line anyways? I don't understand how Vegas figures that one of the weakest teams in the SEC West Division is going to have an easy time beating a Big East Conference opponent that beat them 34-17 last October at home? That's right, the Mountaineers won by 17 points, they look better on offense than they did last year and Auburn had a better team on paper in 2008. I must be missing something. I don't think you can mess with West Virginia against SEC teams because they are 22-17-2 SU lifetime versus teams from the SEC Conference. They are also a very impressive 5-1 SU the last six seasons in their first road game of the season and have won 14 of their last 21 road openers. Wow that's good coaching. Auburn was up 17-3 in last year's meeting in Morgantown but West Virginia had a blistering second half scoring 31 unanswered points and completing shutting down the Auburn offense. I am a huge fan of betting West Virginia in this spot because they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games versus SEC Conference opponents. Auburn, despite covering the spread in their first two games, are still only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in September and they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games as a favorite. I don't need to say much more. All you need to know is that Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus Big East opponents and you will know that this is not a good matchup for these guys. Take West Virginia, way too many points. I think it's also worth mentioning that Auburn's top three receivers are out for this game. Easy pick.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus SEC Conference opponents.
West Virginia 24, Auburn 23
Georgia Bulldogs +1.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Georgia Bulldogs are going to have to work for their wins this season but I really think they are going to get better as a team as the season moves along. Anyone who has to replace two TOP 10 NFL Draft Picks (Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno) is obviously going to struggle to replace them or to attain the numbers they use to put up while at school. So it comes to no shock to anyone (including myself who bet on Oklahoma State) that the Bulldogs opened their 2009 season with a 24-10 loss against the Oklahoma State Cowboys as a +4.5 point underdog. So two games later here we go again with the road underdog status. Prior to this season, Mark Richt had been a road underdog only 9 times in his coaching career at Georgia and in those games Richt was 7-2 ATS. Sure he lost against the Cowboys in their opener but believe me he is not about to lose another game as an underdog. Not once in his career as head coach here has Richt failed to cover the spread as a road underdog more than once in a season. Give these guys a break though. Sure they didn't cover the touchdown spread against South Carolina last weekend but they put up 41 points on one of the toughest defenses in the SEC Conference and eventually won the game. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 282.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. There is no sense talking about Arkansas' defense here because their only opponent so far as I-AA school (Missouri State) and they allowed 10 points against them. What I can tell you about this defense is that they return a whopping 10 starters from last season but last season they allowed 31.2 points per game and I am not a big fan of Defensive Coordinator Willy Robinson who before coming to Arkansas with Petrino, was part of some horrendous defensive coaching units with the St. Louis Rams. Alright so this defense is going to be a lot better but I don't know how they are going to handle this Georgia offense. As a unit Georgia has not run the ball all that well but that is because they had to play from behind in their opener and South Carolina is tough to run against so it would explain their 101.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Joe Cox is a Senior, he has 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in his career with the Bulldogs and he is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season. The Hogs are most definitely vulnerable in the secondary where Missouri State completed 59.1% of their passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt in that game. Cox has been under duress pretty much all season but he should have a lot more time in this game against the weakest D-Line and LB combination he has seen all season. With more time comes better accuracy and Cox should make some big plays downfield. WR AJ Green was a 1st Team All-SEC member as a freshman in 2008 and he is off to another blistering start with 10 catches in two games for 138 receiving yards and 1 touchdown catch. Arkansas did not force or recover a single fumble against a I-AA team two weeks ago so I would assume Georgia comes into this game a little bit less nervous than the last two games where they lost 4 fumbles total. I know Mark Richt is upset with the 10.0 penalties per game Georgia is averaging right now and apparently this was addressed earlier in the week so you can expect a very disciplined Georgia team and that means he will have a good game plan for an Arkansas defense that is in over their heads.
The Arkansas Razorbacks think they can play for the SEC Championship either this season or next. That's what head coach Bobby Petrino told them but I say he is full of crap. I know this is going to be one of the most improved team's in the SEC and in the Country this season but I don't know how fast that transition is going to take place. We cannot get a decent read on this team until they start playing games like this one today and as excited as the Hogs are to open their SEC Conference schedule against an opponent like Georgia, I have a feeling they are going to be singing a different tune once halftime comes rolling around. The Razorbacks finished with a 5-7 SU record in 2008 with Bobby Petrino pretty much shanking in his debut as head coach of this program. It would take a miracle for this team to come out of nowhere, improve on last year's numbers and find a way to win this game. Their season opening 48-10 win over Missouri State was good for confidence and it was good for team morale but I don't think it was an appropriate warmup game for what the Bulldogs have to offer. As a home underdog in 2008, Arkansas lost by 35 to Alabama, they lost to Florida by 31, they lost to Ole Miss by 2 and then they finished the year strong by beating both Tulsa and LSU at home. In their opener, the Razorbacks managed a whopping 591.0 total yards of offense on 8.3 yards per play. Impressive. Georgia has played two games and both games have been against pretty damn good offensive teams with offensive minded coaches. That would explain the 30.5 points per game they have allowed so far this season on 367.0 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. Although they didn't run the ball all that much in their opener, Arkansas still managed to average 4.8 yards per carry but I don't see that flying against a Georgia defense that has allowed opponents this season to rush for only 3.8 yards per carry. Former Michigan QB Ryan Mallett is now the man in charge in Fayetteville and he looked pretty damn good in the opener. Mind you it was against a defense that had no clue what they were doing. The Bulldogs are not about to let another team drop 30+ points on them in this game and I see them actually making some big time plays against a Razorbacks offense that is probably a little too confident coming into this game. Georgia has allowed opponents to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. What's been missing from the Georgia defense of past years is the turnovers they have forced because they have only 1 interception and have yet to recover a fumble on the season. Having said that, Arkansas fumbled the ball twice against Missouri State, they recovered both times and now that they are going to feel some pressure up front, I think this unit is going to make some mistakes. Mallett threw 7 touchdown passes at Michigan in 2007 and also threw 5 interceptions that year. SEC defenses like Georgia's don't usually have consecutive negative turnover ratio seasons in a row. In 2004, Georgia had a -2 turnover ratio and they followed that up with a +11 in 2005. In 2006 they had a -2 and then followed that up with a +9 in 2007. Last season they had a -3 so we can only assume this defense is going to start making some big plays at some point and my guess is that they force a bunch of turnovers in this game today. Fade Arkansas, they are overrated and so is Bobby Petrino.
I have already mentioned it a few times and it needs to be said again. This is Mark Richt's 9th season as head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs and not once has he failed to cover two spreads in one season as a road underdog. He is 7-3 ATS overall as a road underdog during that time span and with the loss to Oklahoma State earlier this year, this should be a stepping stone game for Richt and his crew. It should also be mentioned that as head coach of this program, Mark Richt has led the Bulldogs to a 30-5 SU record away from home and again not once has he lost more than one away game in a single season as head coach here. Arkansas, as much as they have probably improved, have lost 8 of their last 9 games versus Georgia. Arkansas is only 2-6 SU in their last eight home openers and only 3-10 SU in their last 13 games following a BYE Week. No matter who coaches this team and no matter who plays for this team they are never going to be a good team in September as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. They are also a horrendous 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5 to 3.0 and over the years they have had no success winning these games that are supposed to be close. The game might not be all that high scoring but Mark Richt has never lost two road games in one season at Georgia nor has he failed to cover two spreads in one season as a road underdog.
Trend of the Game: Mark Richt is 30-5 SU in away games as Head Coach of the Georgia Bulldogs having never lost two road games in one season.
Georgia 29, Arkansas 19
Hawaii Warriors +7.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
The Hawaii Warriors are a team I have not placed a bet on or against in more than a year. I don't know why but I stopped being a degenerate sometime last year and stopped playing every single late night Hawaii game in sight. Well it's time to get back into the swing of things. Hopefully by now I am up some big time money on the day. I know a lot of you are going to have a tough time backing Hawaii to win or cover the spread in two straight games on the mainland but believe me this is a team that can get things done. Sure they return only 9 total starters on both sides of the ball and sure their defense lost pretty much everyone from last season but they now have two games under their belts and I think they will be fine from here on out. That defense allowed 20 points in both games, not bad but not good and if this turns into a shootout which it probably will, I actually like this Hawaii offense to keep the Warriors in the game. For the first time in more than 7 seasons, Hawaii failed to score at least 30 points per game in a season last season but you can't blame them for having only 4 returning starters as opposed to this season where they bring back 7 guys from last year, including all of their offensive category stat leaders. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 31.5 points per game in two games this season and in those games they managed to amass 519.5 total yards of offense per game on 8.4 yards per play (surprising considering their only lined game was on the mainland). UNLV has allowed only 13.0 points per game this season on 305.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Please keep in mind however that this is the same defense that allowed 32.6 points per game last season. Hawaii all of a sudden has an effective ground attack and that is thanks to QB Greg Alexander who has rushed for 87 yards and has led this team to 129.0 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry on the season. That's a problem for the Rebels defense. UNLV has allowed opponents this season to rush for 156.5 rushing yards per game against them on 4.4 yards per carry and the Warriors have a bunch of guys who can make big plays on the ground. In the air, QB Greg Alexander is a seasoned veteran who has 20 touchdown passes at Hawaii and has thrown only 6 interceptions. This season he has completed 68.7% of his passes for a whopping 745 passing yards, 11.1 yards per pass attempt with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. WOW! WR Greg Salas is a stud having caught 14 passes for a whopping 374 receiving yards and 26.7 yards per reception. Look for the Alexander and his receivers to torch this UNLV secondary that has allowed their opponents to complete 68.0% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Alexander is very good on his feet and he should avoid the pressure that will no doubt be sent his way by the UNLV pass rush. The big problem for Hawaii so far this season is the 7 fumbles they have lost already but the good news there is that UNLV's defense is not all that aggressive and they have yet to recover a single fumble in both their games. I am not concerned at all about this offense. I have no doubts they are going to put some points up on the board in this one as they have shown how explosive they can be. They are led by a bunch of veteran players who finally seem to understand what it takes to win away from home.
The UNLV Rebels are a virtual unknown in the world of college football betting and I think most of us would like it to remain that way. We are talking about a team, a program that has not made it to a Bowl Game since the 2000 Las Vegas Bowl and I don't know about you guys but I think Head Coach Mike Sanford sucks the big one. What has he done here since his arrival from being offensive coordinator in Utah? This is Sanford's fifth season as head coach of the Rebels and he is 12-37 SU in this position. One thing is clear with this team is that they are not good, they have not improved and I just don't see where things are going again 2009. They opened their season with a 38-3 win over I-AA Sacramento State and then followed that up with a close 23-21 loss to Oregon State here at home as a +6.5 point underdog. All you really need to know is that as a Head Coach here at UNLV, Mike Sanford has only been favored 12 times in 49 career games and the Rebels are 4-8 ATS in those games. They have done much better as underdogs and then only time I have placed wagers on this team in the past few seasons was as underdogs. I really don't think Sanford has what it takes to be successful and his defenses have been horrendous the last few seasons. Let's see how they handle an offense like Hawaii's. UNLV comes into this game averaging 29.5 points per game so far this season and they have managed to do that on 388.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Believe it or not, despite returning only 2 starters this season and having experts predict they will allow 40 points per game, Hawaii's defense has allowed only 20.0 points per game this season on 346.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play in those games. The Rebels love to run the ball as they average 149.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry but I don't know how much success they can have against a Hawaii defense that has allowed 129.5 rushing yards per game but also allowed 3.4 yards per carry which is pretty damn good. In the air, QB Omar Clayton has completed 72.1% of his passes for 383 passing yards, 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Having said that, he has a bad knee and could miss this game. The Hawaii secondary lacks big time experience but they have allowed their opponents to complete only 58.0% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. Their pass rush has been outstanding and they have 5 sacks on the season which has led to 3 interceptions by the youngsters which is also impressive. The Warriors have been very aggressive with their tackling as they have recovered a whopping 7 fumbles in two games this season. What needs to be know about this UNLB offense is that in both their games they have not done anything until very late in the game scoring 35 of their 59 points this season in the fourth quarter. Wow. They have scored only 10 total points in the first half of games and if they come out slow like that against Hawaii, they are going to get smoked. Don't forget, my expectations is for this Hawaii defense to allow some points in this game so don't expect too much from the just yet. It's the Hawaii offense that is going to cover and possibly win this game for us. Having said that, UNLV is a useless college football program with one of the most useless head coaches in the Nation.
I can tell you right now that a lot of people are going to bet on this game and I am very surprised at the opening line. I am all over the Warriors as underdogs in this spot because how can you possibly trust a head coach who has won only 12 of his 49 games coached at a school to win by more than seven points? Hawaii has won 9 of their last 12 games versus UNLV and they are 12-6 SU all-time against the Rebels. UNLV doesn't have a proficient defense to speak of, their starting QB is playing hurt and might miss the game and they have sucked the big one over the years when favored in games. Why does anyone like UNLV again? Hawaii has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog and they have covered 6 of their last 8 games versus teams from the Mountain West Conference. I love betting on Hawaii early in the year when opposing defenses have not figured the offense out yet and the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. UNLV is not easy to beat at home but again their success has come as underdogs. The Rebels are actually 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games played in September, they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games when favored and they are only 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. They have failed to cover the spread in their last four games versus WAC Conference opponents and are 2-8 ATS in their last eight home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. I don't see UNLV winning this game let alone covering a seven point spread.
Trend of the Game: UNLV is 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus WAC Conference opponents.
Hawaii 36, UNLV 22
:toast:
WEEK 3 RECAP
Miami Florida -4.5
Boise State -7.5
East Carolina +7 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Clemson -6.5
Virginia Tech -5
Oregon -5
Arizona +5.5
Oregon State +1
Northwestern -3
West Virginia +7
Georgia +1.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Hawaii +7.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Welcome to my 2009 College Football Season. Last year did not go all that well but I had some big wins but I also had some big unit losses and this is a good time to recover. My best season was still the 2004 season where I made huge profits and I hope I can regain that magical touch of my last year posting at Covers.com before being banned for life.
Please keep in mind that these are all my plays, my writeups, my bullshit, my common sense...whatever you wanna call what I post. Some tout sites have used my writeups in the past but it's not authorized and I post everything first obviously. Enjoy the season and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Week 1: 9-4 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2: 5-6 ATS (+39.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 2-0 ATS (+100.00 Units)
Please also keep in mind that 1 Unit = $100 for all my plays unless otherwise posted. I will try to post plays in early every week but with my move out of the Country it's going to be tough the next month or so please forgive the lateness of my plays.
Also stop being so obessed with my units. I bet what I want to bet and you can all use the units as a guideline to see how much I like a play. Money is money, some of us have it, some of us don't. Who cares as long as you are making your own money right?
LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!
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Thursday, September 17
Miami Florida Hurricanes -4.5 (10 Units)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a lucky bunch and they know it. The built a big lead in their last game but almost blew it against the Clemson Tigers at home. I know Paul Johnson is known for having solid fundamental teams but what I have noticed over the years is that his teams turn the ball over quite a bit and it's starting to cost them in the very tough ACC Conference. I don't know about you guys but for a defense that returns 8 starters from last season and that allowed only 20 points per game the last two seasons, I am not all that impressed with the 44 points they have allowed in their first two games (one of those games versus I-AA Jacksonville State). We all know how much the Jackets love to run the ball but with running comes turnovers and with turnovers comes the opportunity for opposing teams to either run away with games or make comebacks like we saw Clemson do last week. This is the most experienced team in the ACC Conference this season with 18 returning starters but I don't trust them on the road. They cannot possibly continue their road success in 2009 (they were 4-1 ATS away from home in Johnson's first season of 2008). Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging a whopping 33.5 points per game this season on 457.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.3 yards per play. Miami's defense is as good as it has been in years and despite allowing 34 points against Florida State (rivalries games should be tossed out the window). You have to still like the fact that Miami was able to hold the Seminoles to only 5.7 yards per play in that game (the Canes averaged 7.4 themselves). We all know Georgia Tech is going to run, run and run some more. They average 318.0 rushing yards per game this season on 6.4 yards per carry. However, Miami's D-Line is outstanding (best in ACC if you ask me) and they allowed only 109.0 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry against Florida State. That is going to force QB Josh Nesbitt to throw the ball a lot more than he wants in this game and that can't be good seeing how he has completed only 9 of 25 passes this season (36% pass completion) for 224 passing yards, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. Nesbitt has not been sacked yet this season but that is going to change tonight against a Canes defense that had 2 sacks against Florida State. From what I have seen the Miami tacklers are very aggressive and that is going to be a problem for a Georgia Tech team that has fumbled 5 times this season and lost 3 of those fumbles. I don't know if you guys have noticed the Yellow Jackets suck in the second half as they have scored only 12 of their 67 total points in the second half (not a single point in the third quarter yet). That's a big time problem because when your team shuts down at the half, it's hard to keep games close. Miami's defense has their way tonight.
The Miami Hurricanes are finally to a dream start for once and Randy Shannon, even though he is one of the worst coaches in the ACC Conference, has talked about how important it is to be 2-0 SU after this game tonight. The Canes have had a ton of time to prepare and rest for this game as they have not played since September 7 on Labor Day and that is a lot of time to recover from a big rivalry game like they had against the Noles. The reason this game is so important is because Miami has to travel to Virginia Tech next week and then they get OklahomaOklahoma in coming weeks. For now let's stick to this game. Miami comes in to this game off that outstanding 38 points come from behind performance against Florida State. In that game they amassed 476.0 total yards of offense on 7.4 yards per play and I don't think Georgia Tech's defense can handle a seasoned offense. Sure the Jackets have done a decent job on defense this season despite allowing 44 total points but the Canes have too much fire power in the air. Surprisingly enough Miami managed only 90.0 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry against FSU but RB Graig Cooper was solid and RB Javarris James can only improve. The Jackets are solid against the run but their pass defense was torched a few times the last couple of weeks. QB Jacory Harris completed 21 of 34 passes in the opener for 386 passing yards, 11.4 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. WR Travis Benjamin is a star in the making and it showed again against Florida State as he brought down 4 catches for 128 receiving yards, 1 touchdown and a whopping 32.0 yards per reception. He is one of the fastest players in the NCAA at 4.26 and he is going to be a deep weapon all season. The Yellow Jackets made some big plays on defense and they do have 6 sacks on the season with 3 interceptions. Having said that, Harris is very good on his feet, he doesn't take many sacks and he should be able to expose a Georgia Tech defense that allows 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season. Miami did not fumble the ball a single time in their opener and I think they are going to open things up big time on offense in this game. There is no way the Canes are as undisciplined as they were against FSU where they took 9 penalties resulting in 74.0 penalty yards. The Yellow Jackets can't defend the deep ball and Harris is a dual threat that is going to be too much for this defense.
This is a big game in the ACC Conference because if Georgia Tech moves to 3-0 SU on the year, they are going to be tough to catch. Last year's game was played at Georgia Tech and in a 41-23 loss the Miami Hurricanes allowed 400+ yards rushing on the ground. Believe me when I say that this defensive line is not about to let that happen again. Georgia Tech has won four straight against Miami but those were some pretty bad and overrated Miami teams. This is the most confident and talented team the Canes have had in three of four seasons and I expect them to put an end to their losing streak against these Jackets. For some reason underdogs are 3-0 ATS this season NFL and College on Thursday Nights and again that trend has to at some point come to an end. No matter how well Georgia Tech has played as an underdog the last few season, they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday Night Football games and they are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games that follow a week off. The Yellow Jackets have not been good coming off a win and they have lacked consistency the last two seasons going 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win the game before. This should be a good game but Georgia Tech turns the ball over too much and Miami is too aggressive for this game to stay close. Canes for me.
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games that follow a BYE week.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 10
Friday, September 18
Boise State Broncos -7.5 (5 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are the one team in college football I can honestly say I don't think I have ever won a wager betting on or against. Well maybe I did but it had to be in the pre-Chris Petersen era because the last few years I just cannot win with this team. It doesn't matter when I choose to back them, I just can't get it right. Well it's time to change all of that right now with one single wager. The Broncos know this is a big game for them because now that they have won the one and only difficult game on their schedule, they are going to have to convince the BCS Computers that they deserve to be in the BCS Bowl Games. There could be 2-3 other non-BCS Conference teams like TCU that also run the table this season which is why the Broncos need to win every game by 20+ points and I have no doubts on my mind that Chris Petersen knows this. Boise State has the #117 ranked schedule in the Country and even if they go 12-0 on the year, that's just not good enough to convince anyone they belong in the BCS. They had that problem last season as well when Utah were the ones who got into the BCS. So again the Broncos are looking for wins and they are looking for big wins. Boise State comes into this game averaging 33.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 404.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. The Fresno StateBoise State struggled to run the ball their first two games averaging a decent but not so great 3.4 yards per carry on 149.0 rushing yards per game. Fresno State did a good job stopping the run and allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in their two games this season but RB DJ Harper has rushed for 5.5 yards per carry on 32 carries and 177 rushing yards for 2 touchdowns. Even if the offense takes a bit of time to gel this season, the Broncos are going to get a lot of chances of their defense forcing turnovers. The air attack is led by QB Kellen Moore who has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for 504 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception. He now has 30 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions in his career at Boise State. Fresno State's secondary is not as good as they have looked in their first two games and I think they get torched by Moore in this game. Don't be fooled by this Fresno State defense and their hot start to the year. They allowed 30+ points per game in 2008 and even though they have 8 returning starters this season, the improvements cannot be all that great. Moore is going to feed of some play action all night long and I think the Broncos have success both on the ground (with Avery and Harper) as well as in the air connecting on deep routes with Pettis and Shoemaker. The Broncos will score some big time points tonight.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are always good for a big time upset or something close to it every season. That's the way Pat Hill has always coaches. He puts everything he has in his playbook on the line when playing in a big game against a big program as underdogs. The problem with that for Hill and his team is that they go for broke so when they lose they tend to lose big because they take a lot of risks. I also want to point out that this is a horrible spot for the Bulldogs. They are coming off a double overtime loss against Wisconsin, on the road, in the Central Time Zone, less than a week ago and to have to fly back home, work on a short week and then face one of the top offenses in the Nation...is next to impossible. I am not saying it hasn't been done before but the Bulldogs are completely deflated after their loss to Wisconsin. They had that game won but they let the Badgers fight back and overtime was needed. I don't know what motivation they have coming into this game. Had they beat Wisconsin, the flight back, the short week of practice and the general preparations for this game would have all been a lot easier and better. Not the case. Therefore I expect a very sluggish and uninspired performance by the Bulldogs in this game. Fresno State comes into this game averaging a whopping 41.0 points per game in two games and they have done it on 489.5 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. NOT SO FAST IN THIS GAME. Boise State has one of the best overall defenses in the Nation this season. They have allowed only 8 total points all season (two games), have allowed only 173.0 total yards of offense per game and have allowed only 3.2 yards per play in those games. Fresno State has run teams into the ground so far this year with their 244.5 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but I don't see them getting much against this very solid defensive line that has allowed only 34.5 rushing yards per game so far and 1.6 yards per carry (Mr. Blount could tell you about this). That will most definitely force Fresno State to throw the ball a lot more than they have this season which means QB Ryan Colburn is going to have to be ready. For a guy who took only 5 snaps prior to this season he has done well but despite his good play I am concerned with the 4 interceptions he has thrown in two games. Like I said, Pat Hill let's his guys do pretty much as they wish and he doesn't hold back. Well that's a problem against this Boise StateBoise State has yet to allow any first half points and that will be tough for a team like Fresno State that loves coming out of the gates with a bang and that has scored 27.5 points per first half this season. I just don't trust this offense can continue to put up big numbers after the big letdown loss in Wisconsin last week. Boise State's defense is too strong and they will make a ton of big plays.
Alright so whatever side you like to win the game here, take the spread. None of that garbage that you like Fresno State to cover but you think Boise State is going to win the game. You have to understand that Fresno State is going to be exhausted both mentally and physically for this game because the overtime loss to WisconsinBoise State has actually won 7 of the last 8 meetings and not only have they won those games but they have won them by 28.0 points per game on average. We all remember last year's blowout 51 point win in Boise and as much as Fresno wants to avenge that, I don't see them being all that motivated for this game. The last eight meetings between the teams (7-1 SU advantage for Boise State) have all been decided by an average of 19.0 points per game. We all think Boise State loves playing on that blue turf, and believe me they do, but they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on natural grass and they have covered 6 of their last 7 games as a road favorite. I also remember Boise State being a great Friday Night Lights team that is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Friday Night. They have covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and going against the Broncos is never a good idea. Fresno State has been one of the best home underdog wagers in all of college football the last three of four years but that comes to an end here as they are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and only 6-20 ATS in their last 26 WAC Conference games. Can you believe that Fresno State is 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss the game before. This is a demoralized team. They aren't coming close in this one.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.
Boise State 35, Fresno State 15
Saturday, September 19
East Carolina Pirates +7 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The East Carolina Pirates let me down last week. I felt they played well but they just couldn't handle something they had not prepared for and that was the passing attack of the West Virginia Mountaineers. Nobody really expected and the Pirates defense was caught off guard. No big deal. Believe me when I say that Skip Holtz has enough experience as an underdog against big name programs that he is going to come just as hard this week as he did last week and I actually think we see a lot more out of this East Carolina team than we did last week. This is a very experienced group that is coming off a 9 win season in 2008. The expectations are high and most experts have them pegged for a return to the CUSA Conference game in December. I would tend to agree with that but they only way they are going to make it there is if they start pulling off upsets on the road and this would be a great spot to do it. You know that a lot of the players are going to be motivated seeing how this is a battle of two Carolina teams and a lot of friends and family should in attendance for both sides. For a team that has done so well in the past as an underdog, I just don't see how the Pirates don't keep this close and put themselves in a position to win the game. East Carolina has struggled on offense this year which is a bit of a surprise with the group they have back. They are averaging 24.5 points per game on the season and have done that on only 278.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play. North Carolina's defense has been solid as expected but their two opponents this season have been 1) a team from the I-AA division and 2) Connecticut, the #99 ranked offense in the NCAA right now. On the ground I think the Pirates have run the ball quite well averaging 4.0 yards per carry on 125.5 rushing yards per game. That should be enough to throw the Heels off balance as North Carolina has allowed only 51.0 rushing yards per game this season. So far QB Patrick Pinkney has definitely not played the way we know he can play football and the fact that he has completed only 42.4% of his passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions is a little bit surprising. Have no fear. Pinkney's career numbers are 59.1% completion percentage with 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He is the leader of this team and although points could come at a premium in this game, he has enough experience to capitalize on some strong defense and turn that into points for the Pirates. The Tar Heels defensive success has come on the heels of some great pressure up front and the Heels have 8 sacks on the season already. Let me just tell you that Pinkney is very good on his feet and it's not easy to get a hold of him. The Pirates have been very good at holding onto the ball and the fact that apart from the interceptions they have not turned the ball over once, is a very encouraging fact. I don't think the Tar Heels have faced a half decent offense all season and the Pirates are going to score some points.
The North Carolina Tar Heels looked anything but impressive last week in their road game against Connecticut and had it not been for some late game blunders by a very young UConn team, we would be talking about a 1-1 SU North Carolina team that is no longer in the TOP 25 ranked teams in the Nation. That's not the case however and North Carolina comes into this game with their 2-0 SU record on the season looking to stay perfect before entering ACC Conference action next week at Georgia Tech. What I don't like about this team is the way their offense has sputtered. The East Carolina Pirates put up a good fight against West Virginia last week despite being outyarded by a good 200+ yards. They had things close at half time but the developped West Virginia offense was able to put them away. Same can't be said about this UNC offense which I think is actually going to have all sorts of problems scoring more than 20 points a game this season. Losing their top three receivers from last season (totalling 17 receiving touchdowns and 114 catches in 2008) is a big time deal. They also lost an electrifying punt returner and receiver in WR Brandont Tate and they just don't have the same kind of jump in their offense this season as they did when QB Cam Sexton was at the helms. North Carolina comes into this game averaging 26.0 points per game this season but they have done it on 321.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play. That's mediocre at best. East Carolina's defense allowed only 21.1 points per game last season, they return 7 starters on defense and 4 of their top 5 tacklers are back as well. They have allowed quite a few points per game this season but have done a good job holding opponents to only 5.4 yards per play in their two games. North Carolina loves to run the ball, averaging 41.0 attempts per game so far but it has given them only 147.5 rushing yards per game and only 3.6 yards per carry. The Pirates defense did a tremendous job last week against the WVU run and they have allowed only 3.3 yards per carry on the season. That will force UNC to throw the ball, something that was a complete fail last week against the UConn defense. QB TJ Yates has completed 61.7% of his passes but has thrown 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 6 times, the offensive line has struggled and I don't doubt for a second this Pirates defense is going to be aggressive. They were torched in the air in both their first games but West Virginia has the #19 ranked passing attack in the Nation while North Carolina sits at the 89th ranked passing attack. The Pirates are very aggressive tacklers and they have already recovered 3 fumbles in two games. I'm not saying the Tar Heels can't score points here but the Pirates defense will be inspired against an in-state rival and we should see their best performance to date. Again the Tar Heels are very young on offense and when returning less than 8 starters on offense in a season, the most points they have scored per game has been 21.2 and that was in 2007 (only time over 20.0 points per game with less than 8 returning starters). I think this is going to be a great game but the Tar Heels showed last week that they are not up to snuff with some of the other teams in the TOP 25 rankings.
I think this is going to be a doozy. East Carolina is a bit disappointed at not pulling off more of an upset bid last week at West Virginia but believe it or not nobody would have really seen it as that big of an upset. Now you give the Pirates a bit more incentive and you give them an extra week together and I think we have the upset bid on our hands here. I have consistently bet on the Pirates as an underdog the last few seasons and made some big cash. I don't see them failing to cover as a dog twice in a row seeing how East Carolina is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog. The Pirates somehow beat the Tar Heels by three points in 2007 but under the guidance of Skip Holtz. they have won 6 of their 16 games versus BCS Conference schools which is pretty damn impressive. Ironically enough Butch Davis is 14-13 SU as head coach of the Tar Heels and his first ever loss was at the hands of East Carolina. The Pirates have covered 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog and from what I can recall, and somehow this slipped my mind last week, North Carolina is only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They have covered only 2 of their last 7 versus CUSA Conference opponents and are a pathetic 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Kenan Memorial Stadium has not been kind to them and seeing how one of the best underdogs in college football is coming off an ATS loss, I say the Tar Heels struggle in this game. This just in, if you thought the UNC offense was bad last week, leading receiver TE Zack Pianalto is out for 3-4 weeks.
Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.
East Carolina 21, North Carolina 20
Clemson Tigers -6.5 (5 Units)
The Boston College Eagles are no doubt going to be a popular wager this week because at first look the line does look a bit off. Having said that. too many factors are being overlooked by several respected cappers and I am here to sway you to the other side. Sure the Eagles come into this game with a 2-0 SU record having played against Northeastern from the I-AA Division (or whatever the hell they call it now) and Kent State. Both were blowout wins for the Eagles but let's get serious here please. Kent State is ranked #105 in total offense in the NCAA and they are ranked #111 in total points scored per game in the NCAA. Unlike their counterpart Clemson Tigers, the Boston College Eagles have not even had a small taste of ACC Conference play yet and nothing is tougher than getting your first taste of it on the road against a team that has already played a conference game. Frank Spaziani is the new head coach (third time in four years they have a new head coach) and I don't know that he is ready for the big time just yet. I am well aware how good of an underdog Boston College has been in years past in conference play on the road but this year's team is different. Most of their underdog wins were with superstar QB Matt Ryan running the show. I have never been a fan of the play calling on offense and defense at Boston College and I think they are going to struggle in Death Valley. Boston College comes into this game averaging 44.0 points per game on 395.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Expect those numbers to drop each and every single game the rest of the way. Clemson is not about to let Boston College off the hook that easily. They have allowed 22.0 points per game so far, have allowed 358.5 total yards of offense per game while allowing 4.9 yards per play (that's while facing two I-A offenses in Middle Tennessee and Georgia Tech). This is by far one of the best defenses in the ACC Conference this season. I don't expect Clemson to allow 196.5 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry like they have in their first two games this season because they have an outstanding D-Line. Those numbers are skewed because they faced a Paul Johnson offense. The Eagles have run the ball tremendously well this season but that was against two very weak defenses. Now they get into some serious business against a Clemson defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 42.5% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers are going to come after QB's Justin Tuggle and David Shinskie all day long with their intense pass rush that has produced 3 sacks on the season. That pass rush has also allowed the secondary to get a jump on bad passes (Clemson has 5 interceptions this season in two games). What you need to know about Clemson is that they don't tackle to bring you down, they tackle to force the ball out which is why they have forced 7 fumbles already this season. Of the 88 points Boston College has scored this season, 62 have come in the first half so if Clemson can shut them down early, the Eagles probably won't score more than 10 points in this game. I expect another top notch performance by this Tigers defense.
The Clemson Tigers are coached by one of my least favorite coaches in all of college football Dabo Swinney but I have to like him for now seeing how this is the second time I back the Tigers in 2009. I was on them in their near come from behind win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week. The Tigers went down big at the half and they looked quite flustered along the way but their defense came into it's own in the second half, they started forcing turnovers and they made it a game before losing 30-27 on a late field goal. Okay losing is not nice but it's not that big of a deal. The last thing Clemson wants to do is allow another ACC Conference Atlantic Divison team go 3-0 SU on the year. The Tigers are actually 2-0 ATS right now, they are probably the best overall teams in the ACC Conference this season when it comes to experience and talent so you have to expect big things from them from here to the ACC Conference Championship Game. Clemson has never been to an ACC Championship Game and I know it was a goal of theirs before the season started. This is an angry team that probably feels they could have done a lot better finishing the Yellow Jackets off last week but some mental mistakes on both sides of the ball cost them in the end. The Tigers come into this game averaging 32.0 points per game this season on 373.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play. Nothing impressive but decent considering the good defenses they faced. Boston College has obviously been lights out on defense considering the opponents they have faced which explains why they have allowed only 7 points this season on 155.0 total yards of offense and 2.6 yards per play. In 2008, the Eagles had one of the best run defenses in the Nation and I expect much of the same this year. However, Clemson can really run the ball and although they average only 3.9 yards per carry in their first two games, I think RB CJ Spiller and WR Jacoby Ford are going to be effective enough to setup some big plays in the air. Clemson has no choice but to go to the air in this game against a Boston College defense that allowed two weak opponents to complete 56.9% of their passes the last two weeks while recording only 1 sack in those games. I know QB Kyle Parker does not have impressive numbers just yet but he does have 5 touchdown passes in two games and he does have a big arm that averages 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles don't have much of a pass rush and if Parker has enough time to find some receivers down field, he has quite the arm to do it. Boston College has one of the weakest and most inexperienced secondaries in the Conference and this is a very good chance for Clemson to expose this defense for the fraud that they have shown to be. Ford and WR Marquan Jones (who has 3 receptions for 36.0 yards per reception this season) are going to have a field day getting open down the field and again if Parker has the time to throw, which I think he will, he is going to find it easy to make some big plays in this game. This is a team that can either hit you up the gut with some outstanding run plays or they can trick you up the middle, run some play action and hit some electryfing receivers downfield. This should be a breakout performance for the Clemson offense.
I have to right away say that Boston College was probably the best road underdog in the NCAA the last two seasons where they went 5-1 ATS as road underdogs. Having said that, they keep replacing head coaches and although I think coach Spaziani has a much bigger football brain than coach Jagodzinski did the last two seasons here, most of those wins as underdogs and most of the success the Eagles had in the past was based on superstar QB Matt Ryan being the leader of this team. Well Ryan is obviously gone and even though this team did not skip much of a beat in 2008, the offense is just not the same and if they go down in games the defense will suffer as well. Boston College's loss to Clemson in 2008 was their first to the Tigers since 1958 and it seems the curse is finally done. I will warn all Clemson backers again that Boston College is probably the best road underdog of the last three seasons in College football. Having said that, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 ACC Conference games and are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games when coming off a win of 20+ points. Clemson on the other hand have covered 4 of their last 5 ACC Conference games and I think they put an end to the trend that the underdog always covers the spread in this series. This is one of the best Clemson teams in a very long time and we see why in this game.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 ACC Conference games.
Clemson 31, Boston College 13
Virginia Tech Hokies -5 (5 Units)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are pretty much the consensus pick (and they have been all summer) as the team to beat for the Big 12 North crown. Does it really matter anymore who represents this Division in the Title game seeing how the South is just too strong? Regardless, this is a very good Huskers team that I have not seen much of this season but what I do know about them is that they can score some serious points. The Huskers are coming off a 38-9 win over Arkansas State at home which followed a 49-3 home win over Florida Atlantic on opening weekend a few weeks ago. Okay now that those two weak opponents are out of the way we find out what this team is all about. Sure it's nice to win and cover two spreads that exceed three touchdowns but now you have to play against one of the best defenses in this Nation and you have to do it on the road. Virginia Tech is ranked #14 in the Nation right now. The last few times Nebraska went on the road to faced ranked opponents they lost Texas Tech by 6 points (2008), they lost to Oklahoma by 34 points (2008), they lost to Missouri by 35 points (2007), they lost to Kansas by 37 points (2007), they lost to Texas by 3 (2007), they lost to USC by 18 (2006) and the beat goes on. You get the point. Nebraska comes into this game averaging 43.5 points per game and they have done that on 492.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.8 yards per play. I promise you it won't be that easy against this Bud Foster defense. The Hokies have not allowed more than 20 points per game in a season since the 2003 season and even though allow 22.0 points per game this year, their opponents have averaged only 375.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Nebraska has bulldozed both their opponents for 197.5 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. For some reason the Hokies have yet to shore up their run defense that allowed less than 100 rushing yards per game in three of their last four season. Alabama and Marshall both had success running the ball on these guys but it was mostly the Alabama game that killed their stats. As much as the Huskers run the ball they are still a pass first offense and that is going to be a problem. QB Zac Lee is fresh off the scout team and this is his first ever taste of a big time college game. He has actually been outstanding against crappy competition with his 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception but opponents have completed only 49.2% of their passes against Foster's defense for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Hokies are going to blitz their asses off against the inexperienced QB and judging by the fact that they already have 6 sacks in two games, I think they can force some bad decisions by the Junior QB. The Hokies have forced 3 fumbles this season, they have recovered 2 of those fumbles and their defense has allowed only 11.5 points per game in the first three quarters of play. Nebraska loves to gun sling and they love to move the ball through the air. The only problem is that the most any team passed on this Hokies defense in 2008 was 176 yards (last home game versus Virginia) and Bud Foster knows how to shut down some of the best offenses in the Nation. I think the Huskers get a nice taste of reality here. Lee has been impressive in scrimmages and practice and to start the year but let's face it, he is in way over his head here.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have yet to really impress anyone this season and a lot of experts and media outlets are predicting this team to lose this game. WELL NOT SO FAST! I don't care if this is a revenge spot for Nebraska and I don't care if Virginia Tech's defense has looked crappy at times this year. We are talking about a team that has won 10+ games in each of their last 5 season and a team that is well on their way to doing the same in 2009. Their season opening loss to Alabama in Atlanta (ESPN Game of the Week) was a tough one but it was an easy prediciton because the two teams don't really match up. This is an offense that is only going to get better by the game and I say that because they were young last season when they averaged only 22.1 points per game (one of their lowest ever in the Beamer era) and now they return 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball so there are no excuses. I would have to say that when you are looking for balance in talent between the QB and RB positions, the Hokies probably have one of the best combos in the ACC Conference after NC State and close to Miami Florida (Harris/Cooper/James are sick). So again there are no excuses this season on offense for this team. The Hokies come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 380.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Don't forget this offense feeds off the defense. Nebraska's defense has yet to be tested in 2009 despite allowing only 6.0 points per game on 319.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. The Huskers allowed almost 30 points per game in 2008 and they lost two of their top three pass rushers in the off-season. On the ground, after forgetting to show up against Alabama, the Hokies rushed for 444 yards against Marshall at home and now average 254.0 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry. We all know QB Tyrod Taylor is a dual threat but he is averaging only 1.9 yards per carry. RB's Ryan Willams and David Wilson have been studs so far with 6 combined rushing touchdowns in two games. The Huskers were run on for 3.8 yards per carry against two shitty offenses this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they allowed the Hokies to run for 200+ yards. In the air, Taylor has completed 50.0% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Not bad. He will have to be better though against the pass rush of the Huskers because in two games he has been sacked 5 times. Nebraska's defense has allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt but they have also forced 7 fumbles but only recovered 2 of those drops. Getting a quick start is going to be huge for the Hokies because they average 26 points per first half right now. I won't deny the Huskers defense is strong and it won't be that easy for the Hokies to move the ball but the Hokies defense is going to be all over the young QB of the Huskers and I think Bud Foster is going to let his players make some huge plays to setup their offense for some points. The Huskers will score in this game but much like years past against ranked teams on the road, they are going to get whalloped in the end and things should fall apart in the second half. When this team can't get their offense rolling, they give up pretty fast.
These two teams met last year in Lincoln and Frank Beamer showed the world what Beamer ball was all about in a 35-30 road win as a +7 underdog. That has a lot of experts calling for the Huskers to return the favor this time around but I just don't see that happening with such a young QB that has little or no experience playing in a wild environment like the one he is going to face today. Beamer is a big fan of making statements for the ACC Conference since his teams always seem to be the best. It should be know that Virginia Tech is 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games versus non-conference BCS conference opponents and they have won those games by an average of 20.0 points per game. You also have to know that after big wins, team like Nebraska tend to grow a fat head and they don't follow up too well. The Huskers have followed their last 15 wins with only 4 spread covers in those games. The Huskers have also been horrendous as a road underdog going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in that spot. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Virginia Tech is quite the opposite of Nebraska because they are well coached and know how to follow wins. The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before and they have covered 24 of their last 35 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. I really like Beamer to once again school a non-conference opponent at home.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they scored 40+ points.
Virginia Tech 41, Nebraska 17
Oregon State Ducks -5 (10 Units)
The Utah Utes think they can bust the BCS for the second year in a row after running the table in 2008 and then shocking the world by demolishing #4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Well that was then and this is now. This is by no means the same team as last year's team. First and foremost for those of you who have not watched them play in 2009 yet, the Utes bring back only 5 starters on offense and only 12 starters are back on both sides of the ball combined. Sure they are 2-0 SU on the season and once again on their way to perfection with the #81 ranked toughest schedule in the Nation but this is where they finally lose. They have not lost a game since the season finale versus BYU in 2007 (heartbreaking but exciting loss) and there is something about this year's team that tells me that they are going to lose 2-3 games. The Utes looked good against Utah State in their opener despite not coming close to the 20.5 point spread. They looked even shakier in their first road game of the season last week beating San Jose State by only 10 points as a 13 point favorite. Now comes the real test. QB Brian Johnson is gone, he passed for 27 touchdowns last season. Also gone this season are the top three receivers on this team who combined for 15 TD catches in 2008. So they are rebuilding in a way. The Utes average 29.5 points per game this season on 508.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play in those games. I know the Oregon defense looks bad because they have allowed 27.5 points per game and have allowed 406.0 total yards of offense in those games but they have allowed only 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Utes are the #21 rushing team in the Nation with 242.0 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but there is a problem. RB Matt Asiata (12 rushing TD's last season and 250 rushing yards this season with 3 TD's) is probably out this game. Nonetheless teams have tried to run all over the Ducks D-Line but Oregon has held their ground and allowed only 3.2 yards per carry. Impressive. The Utes have been successful moving the ball through the air with NCAAJC Offensive Player of the Year in 2008 QB Terrance Cain. I have to admit he has been solid. Having said that, he has not been tested. The Ducks have been thrown on big time in both games they played and they have held their opponents to 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Oregon's pass rush is relentless and they are going to come after Cain from all angles, having already recorded 7 sacks in two games. Believe me the Utah offensive line has not seen this kind of pressure all season and it will be tough for them to protect Cain like they have done so far this year and he won't have the luxury of time in the pocket in this game. Like many other young teams in football, Utah can't seem to hold onto the football as they have already lost a whopping 4 fumbles this season. Oregon is a vicious defense that tackles with a purpose and they have already recovered 4 fumbles of their own with some huge hits and some aggressive tackling. Expect a lot of that in this game again. Utah has lacked big time discipline so far this season with their 8 penalties per game costing them 52.5 yards per game. I don't think they are ready for a PAC 10 defense like this one. Any defense that can hold Purdue and Boise State to a combined 55 points in those two games should be proud. Things will get easier in this game and I think Utah struggles without their star Running Back. Even if Asiata plays, the Ducks are good against the run. Not a good matchup for Utah.
The Oregon Ducks know their season is on the line in this game. They have a home game against a team that has not lost a single football game since the end of the 2007 season and that probably has them motivated more than anything. The Ducks recovered from the Boise State fiasco with a very close but gut checking win over Purdue last weekend and even though they didn't cover the spread, the Ducks got a lot of anger out and they got the win. Now we continue with the rest of their season. Oregon has a stretch of four straight home games right now and they need to fine tune their game heading into the big game against California next week. We all know what happened to RB LeGarette Blount in Boise and as unfortunate as that was, this team has to move on and they have to continue playing for what matters. PAC 10 teams tend to generate a plethora of running backs and sure enough RB LaMichael James has already emerged as the next star running back to play for the Ducks with his 7.1 yards per carry on 11 carries. How about RB Kenjon Barner with his 6.8 yards per carry? The bottom line is there is a guy at every position on this football team waiting to carry the load for the departed and/or the fallen. Chip Kelly earned a lot of respect for his actions following the disaster in Boise and I think he has his team's attention heading into the meat of their schedule which ranks #11 toughest in the Nation. Oregon comes into this game averaging only 23.0 points per game and averaging only 254.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play. That is horrendous. Having said that, Utah's defense did not look good in either of their two games allowing 15.5 points per game and more importantly allowing 5.2 yards per play against two very mediocre offensive teams. This is the game we find out who takes over the running duties for the season. The Blount incident should be out of players' minds right now and I expect someone to emerge with a huge day on the ground against a Utah defense that allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry this season. QB Jeremiah Masoli is a dual threat QB who can really move and I think he is going to make some big plays against this defense once the ground game opens up. He has yet to complete a touchdown pass despite running for two touchdowns of his own but against weaker teams Utah allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt and they managed only 3 total sacks in two games against weak programs. Utah has yet to recover a single fumble on the season, they have 2 interceptions and seeing how the fumble the ball 2-3 times a game, this cannot be good for their offense and their chances to keep this close. Oregon has had issues of their own holding onto the ball but like I said before, the Utah tackling has been horrendous and they have yet to find a way to jar the ball loose from opponents. I think Masoli has a huge game on the ground in this one and I think the Ducks come out of their shell.
Too many people are investing way too much into last year's Utah team. Believe me when I say they are not going to come close to the 13 wins they had in 2008 and they lost too many players (impact players) to be the same team. Having said that, their star RB is probably out with an injury in this game and that leaves the door open for the Oregon offense to put this away early. I would take Utah at home against a PAC 10 team any day of the week but on the road, the visitor is only 1-9 SU when Utah faces a PAC 10 team. WOW! I really think the Ducks roll. They are now 29-2 SU in their last 31 home games versus non-conference opponents. Utah is by far the best underdog wager in the NCAA the last 5+ years covering 25 of their last 31 as underdogs but this is a great fade spot. They have never had success against PAC 10 teams going 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and this is a team that does not pick up steam until later in the year and that is when most of the upsets have come as they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games played in September. Oregon is jacked up for this game and they have followed 4 of their last 5 wins with ATS spread covers the next time out. Now that the LaGarette Blount situation is well behind them, I expect Chip Kelly to let this offense loose and I expect a huge win by the Ducks in what should be by far their best effort this season.
Trend of the Game: Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.
Oregon 26, Utah 13
Arizona Wildcats +5.5 (10 Units)
The Arizona Wildcats finally did it in 2008, they got to a Bowl Game under head coach Mike Stoops and they did it in fashion crusing Arizona State on the final day of the regular season. Not only did the Wildcats make it to the Las Vegas Bowl but the Wildcats lay a beating on BYU as -3 point favorites and that pretty much catapulted them into this season with the expectations of making it to their second straight Bowl Game after going 10 years without one. So far so good. I know their opponents have not been top notch but beating Central Michigan (who have one of the most underrated QB's in the Nation) is not an easy task but the Wildcats beat them 19-6 in their home opener and then followed that up with a confidence boosting 34-17 win over Northern Arizona last week. Now comes the road action and time for the Wildcats to make a statement. Arizona managed 36.8 points per game last season and although QB Will Tuitama is gone, his replacement looks to be just as good. What bettors don't seem to realize is that Arizona lost four very close games last season which means they could have easily won 9 or 10 games. This team is better than they get credit for and they will open eyes this season. Arizona comes into this game averaging 26.5 points per game on a whopping 503.5 total yards of offense this season and 6.7 yards per play. Iowa's defense has been rock solid so far allowing 9.5 points per game and allowing 328.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. My only concern is that their defense is ranked #65 in the Nation after playing against Iowa State and Northern Iowa (almost lost the game). RB Nicholas Grigsby is a superstar in the making and he has rushed for 325 yards this season, 8.6 yards per carry and 3 rushng touchdowns. WOW! The team has rushed for 305.5 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry which is why I think Iowa's defense is in big time trouble and the Hawkeyes have allowed 137.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. QB Matt Scott has been sensational completing 66.0% of his passes for 352 passing yards, 7.0 yards per pass attempt and some big time plays. He has also rushed for 131 yards on 8.2 yards per carry. UNREAL! Iowa's defense is definitely more solid against the pass where they have 5 interceptions and have held their opponents to 52.2% pass completion rate. Having said that, Scott is a threat both in the air and on the ground and I really think Arizona is going to pound away at the Hawkeyes weak interior all afternoon in this one. Iowa just does not have answer for the Scott/Grigsby combo the are about to face and when the running game is in full flight, you can expect Scott to make some big plays down field. Arizona is a lot more disciplined this season with their 5.0 penalties per game and I really like for this team to continue impressing the Nation with their high flying offense. Arizona should surprise here.
The Iowa Hawkeyes think they have it going on now that their rivalry game is out of the way and now that they have escaped the first two games of the season (probably the easiest two by far) without that major upset loss, they can finally concentrate on winning this conference. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! Don't get me wrong, this team has 14 returning starters and a bunch of their losses in 2008 were by a few points. However, I am not impressed at all with the way they have come out the gates swinging. For a team that wants to play on New Year's Day they need to shape up or they will find themselves on a losing streak quite fast. I remember a home game last season when everyone was guaranteeing that Iowa was going to destroy Northwestern at home as -8 point favorites and sure enough that is the last time Iowa lost at home and it just goes to show that they can certainly be beaten on their home turf. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 9 win season that saw them stomp on South Carolina in the Outback Bowl but I think the loss of RB Shonn Greene is a much a bigger deal than anyone is talking about seeing how he rushed for 1889 yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 8 receptions. The Hawkeyes also lost 8 receiving touchdowns as two of their top three receivers from last year are gone. Iowa comes into this game averaging 26.0 points per game and they have done it on 377.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. This is an Arizona defense that allowed only 21.3 points per game last season while returning only 3 starters. You can imagine how good they are now that 7 starters are back. So far this season the Wildcats defense has allowed only 11.5 points per game, they have allowed 204.0 total yards of offense in those games on only 4.1 yards per play. I personally think Iowa will struggle to move the ball in this one. They did look decent on the ground despite the loss of Greene and so far they average 4.2 yards per carry but Arizona is allowing only 70.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Richard Stanzi does play with fire in his eyes and he has completed 58.8% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. The Arizona secondary will give you some room to complete passes but they won't let you run with it. The Wildcats have allowed only 4.4 yards per pass attempt and they have a vicious pass rush that has 6 sacks in two games. Iowa cannot protect Stanzi as we saw in the 5 times he has already been sacked this season and all that pressure is going to result in some bad throws and some bad decisions. The Wildcats also have 3 interceptions as a result of the pressure up front and Iowa has fumbled the ball 3 times in two games. The Iowa offense is mediocre at best and they have been very slow out of the gates in both their games this season scoring only 8.5 points per first half of their two games. Arizona's defense is loaded with experienced playmakers and the Wildcats should make it a tough afternoon for Stanzi and company.
You would think most Arizona Wildcat players were too young to remember the last time this team went on the road to face a Big Ten opponent. Actually it's more like you would hope they were too young because it was in 2003 and Arizona got whalloped 59-7 in West Lafayette. I don't see that happening here as Arizona is 6-5 SU lifetime versus Iowa. I am well aware that Iowa has an outstanding home record against non-conference opponents and they have lost something like only 1 of their last 16 but Arizona is a solid team. Mike Stoops loves being the underdog and he is pretty damn good at it as Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. I know his track record against Big Ten opponents is not good at all but the Wildcats matchup very well in this one and this is a great spot for them to open some eyes. Iowa lost too much on offense from a year ago when they scored 30.3 points per game and despite the return of the QB Stanzi, losing one of the Nation's top running back is a huge deal and so is losing some prime time receivers. Iowa is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games played versus PAC 10 Conference opponents so you can toss out all advantage this team had of playing versus a PAC 10 opponent that has struggled against Big Ten opponents. I think Arizona is too good on both sides of the ball and this game is going to be decided by less than 3 points either way.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Arizona 24, Iowa 22
Oregon State Beavers +1 (10 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats already made me some loot this season in their 47-15 season opening road win at Rutgers as a +4.5 point underdog and it seems like the Cincinnati love train is in full motion now that the team is 2-0 SU with their win over SE Missouri State last week. Can everyone please calm the hell down. Beating Rutgers was nice but it was the first game and the Scarlet Knights looked shell shocked for the second straight season. Then came the win over a I-AA school. So what's the big deal? Don't get me wrong here, I like Brian Kelly a lot and I think he is one of the only college football coaches in the Nation that can actually turn nothing into something when it comes to his players but let's face it, the real test starts now for this Cincinnati team that returns only 1 starter on defense. It has not shown yet that they are young in all corners and facets of their defense but it will show the minute they run into a decent offense. The Bearcats (not counting their loss to Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl) are on a 8 game regular season win streak having not lost since their 40-16 fiasco last season at Connecticut as a -2 point favorite. Sound a little bit familiar with those odds or what? The Cincinnati Bearcats are the second highest scoring team in the NCAA right now at 58.5 points per game on 571.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.8 yards per play in those games. Believe me that is not going to last past these next few games although the Bearcats do have quite the week schedule after this game (Fresno State at home and Miami Ohio on the road). Oregon State has allowed only 14.0 points per game this season and they have allowed those points on only 330.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Bearcats are tearing it up with 197.5 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry but they won't find it that easy to run the ball against this big defensive line and great group of linebackers that have allowed only 79.5 rushing yards per game so far and 3.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Cincinnati QB Tony Pike has been one of the best in the Nation so far, completing 77.2% of his passes for 591 passing yards, 10.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception. The Oregon State defense doesn't bring much pressure and they don't make flashy but that they do well is they limit quick moving offenses to smaller portion plays and have allowed only 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season. We all know this is going to be a game with some points scored and I think it has to be mentioned that despite not fumbling the ball a single time this season, the Bearcats are due for some mistakes and it might come against an Oregon State team that has forced 3 fumbles and recovered 2 of those fumbles. The Beavers have yet to allow a single point scored against them in the first half this season and this is a very tough environment for a young Cincinnati team to win in. Rutgers was tough too but I just don't think Pike will be as comfortable throwing the ball nor do I think he will have the success he had the last two weeks without an effective running attack. The Bearcats are a good team but this is a tough matchup for them.
The Oregon State Beavers continue to be one of the more surprising team season after season. Nobody really expected them to win 10 games in 2006 but they dide. Nobody expected them to win more than 7 games in 2007 but they won 9 and nobody thought they could win more than 6-7 games in 2008 but they ended up winning 9 games again. So now that we have established that Mike Riley is a great coach and that he knows how to prepare for and win games the team has no business winning, I am sure you will gladly put your money on this team knowing that they have not had a losing ATS season since 2005. The Beavers kicked off their new season with a 34-7 win over I-AA opponent Portland State and they followed that up last week with a rather mediocre effort on the road as -6.5 point favorites at UNLV in a sloppy 23-21 win. The Beavers are 2-0 SU on the season and no matter how many times you think this team is set to have a down year or how many times you think they are rebuilding, Riley finds a way to get the most out of his players which is why this matchup is so interesting because both head coaches here have great experience using younger players and growing them up fast. The Beavers have only 10 returning starters this season but that's the same 2008 where they won 9 games. Oregon State comes into this game averaging 28.5 points per game so far this season and if anyone is experienced it's their offense with their 407.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. The Bearcats defense is very young, they lack experience but they have held their ground so far this season allowing only 9.0 points per game on 238.5 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play. Expect that to change. We all know about RB Jacquizz Rodgers who tore it up against USC last season. He has 269 rushing yards this season on 6.4 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns but is a bit banged up. Regardless, the Beavers have rushed for 167.5 yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. Cincinnati's D-Line is about to be tested here. Sure they have allowed only 59.5 rushing yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry but neither Rutgers nor the I-AA team they played can run the ball. Rodgers is a different animal and if he makes into the second level of tackles (linebackers), he is going to break some huge 40+ yard runs. That type of running game should set things up for Senior QB Sean Canfield who is off to a blistering start having completed 78.6% of his passes for 356 passing yards, 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He has a ton of experience and WR James Rodgers is a star in the making with his deep ball abilities. Watch out for Jacquizz Rodgers though because he is all over the place and Canfield is going to confuse a Cincinnati secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Sure they have 6 sacks and sure they have 6 interceptions already but Canfield has yet to throw an interception this season and although he has been sacked 5 times, he has the dumpoff option to Rodgers and we should see quite a few screen passes because Danny Langsdorf's offense knows what they have coming from the Bearcats. The Beavers have been very good with the ball and have yet to lose a fumble this season which is important against such an aggressive defense like Cincinnati's. You have to know that Oregon State scored at least 27 points in each of their home games last season and I think this is going to be a rude awakening for some members of this young Cincinnati defense who don't know what they are in for. I think the Beavers roll in this game but Cincinnati will keep it interesting as always.
Alright so everyone still has that blowout win over Rutgers on the road in their minds. FORGET ABOUT THAT PLEASE. Cincinnati is not as good as everyone is making them out to be and if you must know, Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in their last six non-conference away games versus teams from BCS Conferences and they have lost those games by an average of 21.0 points per game. Explain that one please. These two teams met a couple of years ago and Cincinnati won at home 34-3 but the Beavers turned the ball over a whopping 7 times in that game and actually had the advantage in yards gained. There is no arguing that Cincinnati has been a great September team since the arrival of Brian Kelly and that is mainly because he always has his players ready to play. However, Cincinnati has covered the spread in only 6 of their last 21 games as a road favorite and only 2 of their last 7 non-conference games. They are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a win of 20+ points the game before and this is a big time letdown game for these guys. Oregon State is in a perfect spot as home underdogs here because they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games an an underdog in general and they are a very impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Beavers have mastered the artificial turf going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on this stuff and like I said before, betting against them at home is always a bad idea seeing how they have covered the spread in 40 of their last 60 home games. I think Mike Riley is going to outcoach Brian Kelly in a battle of two young squads looking for some cheddar. BEAVERS TO THE BANK FOR ME!
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in their last six non-conference road games versus BCS Conference opponents losing by an average of 21.0 points per game.
Oregon State 35, Cincinnati 17
Northwestern Wildcats -3 (10 Units)
The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off quite the 9-4 season that saw them reach the Alamo Bowl against an explosive Missouri offense as +12 point underdogs. Not only did the Wildcats cover the spread in that game but they almost won instead losing an overtime thriller by seven points. The Cats definitely used that game to build on this season as they return only 13 starters and lost most of their offensive stars from 2008 (Tyrell Sutton is gone, so is CJ Bacher and the top 4 receivers on this team). How have the Wildcats reacted so far? Well they are 2-0 SU on the season, they have a very good chance of being 3-0 SU after this game and although their opponents have been mediocre at best, a win is a win when you are trying to reach a Bowl Game and the Wildcats will take it. You have to keep in mind how well this team has played on the road sinze Pat Fitzgerald took over as head coach (last year mostly). I know they have covered only one game as an away favorite under the guidance of Fitzgerald but expectations were much higher in their two away favorite ATS losses in 2008 and you have to keep in mind Northwestern's 2006 season opening win on the road at Miami Ohio as -6 point favorites. The Wildcats come into this game averaging a whopping 37.0 points per game this season on 414.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. The core of their defense is back but the offense is pretty new. Having said that, Syracuse's defense is supposed to be better but I don't know. They have allowed 25.5 points per game this season on 339.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Wildcats have not skipped a beat since losing Tyrell Sutton as they average 203.0 rushing yards per game in their two games on 4.0 yards per carry. The Wildcats already have 7 rushing touchdowns this season and although Syracuse has not allowed much on the ground this season, I expect a dangerous ground attack to open things up in the air for Northwestern. QB Mike Kafka is a Senior and he is the leaders of this offense. He has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 350 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt but does not have a touchdown pass as of yet. That's about to change. WR Andrew Brewer is emerging as a big time threat down the field and we should see some big plays from the Wildcats against a Syracuse defense that has allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Kafka has been sacked only 1 time, he is a big time run threat on the ground as well coming off a 416 rushing yard season on 4.7 yards per carry and the pressure that Syracuse has brought the last few games won't hurt a QB who can run around. I really like that Northwestern has been aggressive on offense even if it means losing the ball a few times a game. They average 29.0 points per first half this season and they are going to need the quick start in this game to put the crowd out of it early. Kafka has too much experience and is too dangerous a player to contain for a defense that has allowed 30+ points the last two seasons. I think Northwestern has their way in this game and we should see them win quite easily.
The Syracuse Orangemen are one of those teams you just cringe a bit when you hear about their upcoming highlights on television. They are sorta like the Detroit Lions of college football. One of those teams where there is no end whatsoever in sight in terms of winning football games on a consistent basis and making it back to the post-season for the first time since the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl against Georgia Tech (isn't that where it all went bad in a 51-13 loss as +5 point underdog?). The Orangemen opened the season with an impressive and unexpected 23-20 overtime loss to the Minnesota Gophers as +7 point home underdogs but Minnesota looked horrendous in that game and Syracuse was a bit jacked up for their home opener. They followed that up with a decent 28-7 loss at Penn State last week as +29.5 point road underdogs. Everyone pretty much thought they would get blown out of the water in that game but they held their own, mind you Penn State kept it simple, hid their playbook and ran some basic offensive formations all game. We all know Syracuse is going to win their home game against I-AA Maine next weekend and my concern is that this team has their eyes on that guaranteed prize a little too early. Starting with this game the Orangemen play 6 straight home games and this is probably going to determine what kind of season these kids are actually going to have. Syracuse comes into this game averaging only 13.5 points per game this season and they have done that on a very mediocre 228.5 total yards of offense per game and only 3.5 yards per play in those games. What has skipped people's minds coming into this game is the fact that although depleted on the offensive side of things, Northwestern returns 8 starters from a defense that allowed only 20.2 points per game last season. So far this season they have allowed only 262.5 total yards of offense per game and have allowed only 19.0 points per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Syracuse has struggled big time rushing for only 77.5 yards per game on a horrendous 2.5 yards per carry and that is not about to get any better against a Northwestern defense that has allowed only 118.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry this season. That is going to force QB Greg Paulus to throw a lot more than he wants to. Paulus has been decent completing 64.7% of his passes for 272 passing yards, 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions but that's just not enough. The Northwestern defense allows a lot of short passing plays but they also don't allow many yards after the catch and held their opponents to 6.2 yards per pass attempt this season. I think the Wildcats are going to bring some big time pressure on Paulus in this one as he has been sacked 5 times in two games and the pressure has forced some bad throws. This is a Northwestern secondary that is very quick, very aggressive and that has been rewarded with 4 interceptions in two games. I think they come up with at least 1-2 in this game because again Paulus under pressure has resulted in interceptions and this should be no different. Apart from WR Mike Williams who is the one and only star on this Syracuse team, the offense is putrid and I think they are going to find it hard to move the chains against a defense that had a whopping 34 sacks last season and that brings back the core of their pass rushers. Safety Jordan Mabin is a star in the making playing with a bunch of Senior DB's and they should have no problems shutting Williams down and forcing Paulus to throw elsewhere. The offense in Syracuse has been atrocious for years and this is not a Northwestern defense that is about to let that change. I am going all the way with Northwestern's defense to dominate this game.
I think a large chunk of the betting public is quickly assuming that Syracuse is finally going to win a home game and that their home losing streak will come to an end here. Not so fast. I want to point out right away that Northwestern is 5-1 SU in their last six non-conference away games versus BCS Conference schools which is impressive. Last year's game (30-10 win by Northwestern) was close, sorta, not really but kinda. I mean the Wildcats did amass 200+ more total yards of offense than Syracuse yet they were down 10-9 in the 3rd quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points. It's very rare that Northwestern loses two straight spread covers and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss the game before. The Wildcats are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on artificial turf and they were successful on the road last season so I expect the same in 2009. I know I got burned the last time I bet against the Orange at home against Minnesota but they are still 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. You get the feeling Syracuse is eventually going to break out of their shell and win some games as underdogs but I don't see it happening against a Wildcats defense that is very underrated and that has played better than most handicappers know in the last couple of seasons. I am all over Northwestern here.
Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss the game before.
Northwestern 31, Syracuse 19
West Virginia Mountaineers +7 (10 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers know they are not seven point underdogs against an floundering SEC team like Auburn but all they can really do about it is hit that Jordan-Hare Stadium grass on Saturday night and show the Nation that they are in ways better than the teams of recent years that had Pat White and Steve Slaton on them. The Mountaineers have not skipped a beat it seems since White left for good after last season and what's hard to believe is that West Virginia averaged only 24.5 points per game in their 9 win season in 2008. The offense lost their superstar and one of their best players ever but again they are coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances in their opening two games. It seems that after two games the offense took two step forward on last year and the defense took two steps backwards. The Mountaineers disposed of I-AA school Liberty in their opener and then took care of business against a pesky East Carolina team easily covering the -5.5 as a home favorite. I was very impressed by the play of guys like QB Jarrett Brown in their first two games and again even though this team is returning only 12 starters on both sides of the ball from last season, they have looked good and this is definitely a game they can win. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging 34.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 473.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.4 yards per play. WOW! Pat White who? Auburn's defense is always going to be solid and they do return some of their top players from last year so it's understandable that they have allowed 18.5 points per game this season on 271.0 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Mountaineers have not missed a step from last season averaging 185.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry as both RB Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown have combined for some big time plays. Auburn's run defense has been decent but not all that good as they have allowed 131.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season and both Brown and Devine know what it's like to play against this defense having both been here in 2008. In the air, Brown has been damn impressive completing 75.4% of his passes for 577 passing yards, 10.1 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. I think Auburn's pass defense is solid, I think they won't allow the 30+ points they allowed last year against Pat White and the Mountaineers as their opponents this season have completed only 53.7% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Having said that, the Tigers have not seen a run-pass threat offense like this one since their meeting with WVU and again they were torched for 30+ points in that game. Brown is very good on his feet, he has thrown only 1 interception and he should have no problems escaping the Auburn pass rush that has generated 4 sacks this season and 3 interceptions. My only concern as always with teams that run a lot is fumbles and the Mountaineers have lost 3 of them already this season but Auburn has yet to force a fumble, their tacklers are not as other SEC defenses and West Virginia should be fine. This is an explosive offense that needs both Brown and Devine involved in almost every single play but if they managed to torch Auburn last season, I imagine they will have a decent time scoring points again today.
The Auburn Tigers are coming off what could be called their most disappointing season in decades as they finished the 2008 campaign with a 5-9 SU record and finished near the bottom of the pack in the SEC West Division. I don't know why so many people see this season as being any different. I mean the team returns only 15 starters from last season's team that could only muster 17.3 points per game on offense. They have a new head coach in Gene Chizik who was a pathetic 5-19 SU at Iowa State the last two seasons so it must feel good for coach to start the year with two big wins over two absolutely nobody opponents. Alright so this team is now 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with a 23 point win over Louisiana Tech in their opener which was followed by a 25 point win over Mississippi State. The oddsmakers doubted the Tigers in their first two games setting very low spread for both games. Now the oddsmakers are back on the Auburn bandwagon and they have set a line more appropriate for this team. I know the Tigers exploded on offense in their first two games but I still don't see how they are going to be all that much better than last year's team and two games doesn't really mean much. Most of the offense from 2008's putrid season is back this year and although they might improve a bit, I expect times this season where the media calls for Gus Malzhahn's head. Auburn comes into this game averaging 43.0 points per game this season which is a big wow and they have done that on 572.5 total yards of offense per game (ranked #4 in the Nation right now) and 7.1 yards per play. Well not so fast against this underrated West Virginia defense that has allowed 20.0 points per game to open the season and allowed 268.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.3 yards per play in those games. Auburn is the #2 rushing offense in the NCAA right now averaging 345.5 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards carry. The Tigers have a plethora of halfbacks who can carry the ball for big yardage but they won't find it that easy against a very big West Virginia defensive front that has allowed only 75.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. That will force the Tigers to throw a lot more than they have and I am not a fan of their passing game at all. QB Chris Todd had a tough time in 2008 and his 2009 season is not going all that much better. He has completed only 55.1% of his passes for 441 passing yards, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Believe me the mistakes are coming. West Virginia has allowed their opponents to complete only 52.8% of their passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt. They have 2 sacks and 2 interceptions, they don't pass rush all that much but rather play a contain style of defense that doesn't allow big plays. At some point this defense is going to have to start forcing more turnovers. The Mountaineers have frustrated opposing offenses with their defensive sets that create confusion and that has resulted in their opponents this season averaging 8.5 penalties per game for 72.0 yards per game. I think West Virginia matches up very well with this Auburn offense and they have enough toughness to fight off a strong running attack. You also have to consider that the Mountaineers offense is going to control the clock and keep their defense fresh in this one.
What the hell is this line anyways? I don't understand how Vegas figures that one of the weakest teams in the SEC West Division is going to have an easy time beating a Big East Conference opponent that beat them 34-17 last October at home? That's right, the Mountaineers won by 17 points, they look better on offense than they did last year and Auburn had a better team on paper in 2008. I must be missing something. I don't think you can mess with West Virginia against SEC teams because they are 22-17-2 SU lifetime versus teams from the SEC Conference. They are also a very impressive 5-1 SU the last six seasons in their first road game of the season and have won 14 of their last 21 road openers. Wow that's good coaching. Auburn was up 17-3 in last year's meeting in Morgantown but West Virginia had a blistering second half scoring 31 unanswered points and completing shutting down the Auburn offense. I am a huge fan of betting West Virginia in this spot because they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games versus SEC Conference opponents. Auburn, despite covering the spread in their first two games, are still only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in September and they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games as a favorite. I don't need to say much more. All you need to know is that Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus Big East opponents and you will know that this is not a good matchup for these guys. Take West Virginia, way too many points. I think it's also worth mentioning that Auburn's top three receivers are out for this game. Easy pick.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus SEC Conference opponents.
West Virginia 24, Auburn 23
Georgia Bulldogs +1.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Georgia Bulldogs are going to have to work for their wins this season but I really think they are going to get better as a team as the season moves along. Anyone who has to replace two TOP 10 NFL Draft Picks (Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno) is obviously going to struggle to replace them or to attain the numbers they use to put up while at school. So it comes to no shock to anyone (including myself who bet on Oklahoma State) that the Bulldogs opened their 2009 season with a 24-10 loss against the Oklahoma State Cowboys as a +4.5 point underdog. So two games later here we go again with the road underdog status. Prior to this season, Mark Richt had been a road underdog only 9 times in his coaching career at Georgia and in those games Richt was 7-2 ATS. Sure he lost against the Cowboys in their opener but believe me he is not about to lose another game as an underdog. Not once in his career as head coach here has Richt failed to cover the spread as a road underdog more than once in a season. Give these guys a break though. Sure they didn't cover the touchdown spread against South Carolina last weekend but they put up 41 points on one of the toughest defenses in the SEC Conference and eventually won the game. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 282.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. There is no sense talking about Arkansas' defense here because their only opponent so far as I-AA school (Missouri State) and they allowed 10 points against them. What I can tell you about this defense is that they return a whopping 10 starters from last season but last season they allowed 31.2 points per game and I am not a big fan of Defensive Coordinator Willy Robinson who before coming to Arkansas with Petrino, was part of some horrendous defensive coaching units with the St. Louis Rams. Alright so this defense is going to be a lot better but I don't know how they are going to handle this Georgia offense. As a unit Georgia has not run the ball all that well but that is because they had to play from behind in their opener and South Carolina is tough to run against so it would explain their 101.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Joe Cox is a Senior, he has 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in his career with the Bulldogs and he is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season. The Hogs are most definitely vulnerable in the secondary where Missouri State completed 59.1% of their passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt in that game. Cox has been under duress pretty much all season but he should have a lot more time in this game against the weakest D-Line and LB combination he has seen all season. With more time comes better accuracy and Cox should make some big plays downfield. WR AJ Green was a 1st Team All-SEC member as a freshman in 2008 and he is off to another blistering start with 10 catches in two games for 138 receiving yards and 1 touchdown catch. Arkansas did not force or recover a single fumble against a I-AA team two weeks ago so I would assume Georgia comes into this game a little bit less nervous than the last two games where they lost 4 fumbles total. I know Mark Richt is upset with the 10.0 penalties per game Georgia is averaging right now and apparently this was addressed earlier in the week so you can expect a very disciplined Georgia team and that means he will have a good game plan for an Arkansas defense that is in over their heads.
The Arkansas Razorbacks think they can play for the SEC Championship either this season or next. That's what head coach Bobby Petrino told them but I say he is full of crap. I know this is going to be one of the most improved team's in the SEC and in the Country this season but I don't know how fast that transition is going to take place. We cannot get a decent read on this team until they start playing games like this one today and as excited as the Hogs are to open their SEC Conference schedule against an opponent like Georgia, I have a feeling they are going to be singing a different tune once halftime comes rolling around. The Razorbacks finished with a 5-7 SU record in 2008 with Bobby Petrino pretty much shanking in his debut as head coach of this program. It would take a miracle for this team to come out of nowhere, improve on last year's numbers and find a way to win this game. Their season opening 48-10 win over Missouri State was good for confidence and it was good for team morale but I don't think it was an appropriate warmup game for what the Bulldogs have to offer. As a home underdog in 2008, Arkansas lost by 35 to Alabama, they lost to Florida by 31, they lost to Ole Miss by 2 and then they finished the year strong by beating both Tulsa and LSU at home. In their opener, the Razorbacks managed a whopping 591.0 total yards of offense on 8.3 yards per play. Impressive. Georgia has played two games and both games have been against pretty damn good offensive teams with offensive minded coaches. That would explain the 30.5 points per game they have allowed so far this season on 367.0 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. Although they didn't run the ball all that much in their opener, Arkansas still managed to average 4.8 yards per carry but I don't see that flying against a Georgia defense that has allowed opponents this season to rush for only 3.8 yards per carry. Former Michigan QB Ryan Mallett is now the man in charge in Fayetteville and he looked pretty damn good in the opener. Mind you it was against a defense that had no clue what they were doing. The Bulldogs are not about to let another team drop 30+ points on them in this game and I see them actually making some big time plays against a Razorbacks offense that is probably a little too confident coming into this game. Georgia has allowed opponents to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. What's been missing from the Georgia defense of past years is the turnovers they have forced because they have only 1 interception and have yet to recover a fumble on the season. Having said that, Arkansas fumbled the ball twice against Missouri State, they recovered both times and now that they are going to feel some pressure up front, I think this unit is going to make some mistakes. Mallett threw 7 touchdown passes at Michigan in 2007 and also threw 5 interceptions that year. SEC defenses like Georgia's don't usually have consecutive negative turnover ratio seasons in a row. In 2004, Georgia had a -2 turnover ratio and they followed that up with a +11 in 2005. In 2006 they had a -2 and then followed that up with a +9 in 2007. Last season they had a -3 so we can only assume this defense is going to start making some big plays at some point and my guess is that they force a bunch of turnovers in this game today. Fade Arkansas, they are overrated and so is Bobby Petrino.
I have already mentioned it a few times and it needs to be said again. This is Mark Richt's 9th season as head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs and not once has he failed to cover two spreads in one season as a road underdog. He is 7-3 ATS overall as a road underdog during that time span and with the loss to Oklahoma State earlier this year, this should be a stepping stone game for Richt and his crew. It should also be mentioned that as head coach of this program, Mark Richt has led the Bulldogs to a 30-5 SU record away from home and again not once has he lost more than one away game in a single season as head coach here. Arkansas, as much as they have probably improved, have lost 8 of their last 9 games versus Georgia. Arkansas is only 2-6 SU in their last eight home openers and only 3-10 SU in their last 13 games following a BYE Week. No matter who coaches this team and no matter who plays for this team they are never going to be a good team in September as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. They are also a horrendous 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5 to 3.0 and over the years they have had no success winning these games that are supposed to be close. The game might not be all that high scoring but Mark Richt has never lost two road games in one season at Georgia nor has he failed to cover two spreads in one season as a road underdog.
Trend of the Game: Mark Richt is 30-5 SU in away games as Head Coach of the Georgia Bulldogs having never lost two road games in one season.
Georgia 29, Arkansas 19
Hawaii Warriors +7.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
The Hawaii Warriors are a team I have not placed a bet on or against in more than a year. I don't know why but I stopped being a degenerate sometime last year and stopped playing every single late night Hawaii game in sight. Well it's time to get back into the swing of things. Hopefully by now I am up some big time money on the day. I know a lot of you are going to have a tough time backing Hawaii to win or cover the spread in two straight games on the mainland but believe me this is a team that can get things done. Sure they return only 9 total starters on both sides of the ball and sure their defense lost pretty much everyone from last season but they now have two games under their belts and I think they will be fine from here on out. That defense allowed 20 points in both games, not bad but not good and if this turns into a shootout which it probably will, I actually like this Hawaii offense to keep the Warriors in the game. For the first time in more than 7 seasons, Hawaii failed to score at least 30 points per game in a season last season but you can't blame them for having only 4 returning starters as opposed to this season where they bring back 7 guys from last year, including all of their offensive category stat leaders. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 31.5 points per game in two games this season and in those games they managed to amass 519.5 total yards of offense per game on 8.4 yards per play (surprising considering their only lined game was on the mainland). UNLV has allowed only 13.0 points per game this season on 305.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Please keep in mind however that this is the same defense that allowed 32.6 points per game last season. Hawaii all of a sudden has an effective ground attack and that is thanks to QB Greg Alexander who has rushed for 87 yards and has led this team to 129.0 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry on the season. That's a problem for the Rebels defense. UNLV has allowed opponents this season to rush for 156.5 rushing yards per game against them on 4.4 yards per carry and the Warriors have a bunch of guys who can make big plays on the ground. In the air, QB Greg Alexander is a seasoned veteran who has 20 touchdown passes at Hawaii and has thrown only 6 interceptions. This season he has completed 68.7% of his passes for a whopping 745 passing yards, 11.1 yards per pass attempt with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. WOW! WR Greg Salas is a stud having caught 14 passes for a whopping 374 receiving yards and 26.7 yards per reception. Look for the Alexander and his receivers to torch this UNLV secondary that has allowed their opponents to complete 68.0% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Alexander is very good on his feet and he should avoid the pressure that will no doubt be sent his way by the UNLV pass rush. The big problem for Hawaii so far this season is the 7 fumbles they have lost already but the good news there is that UNLV's defense is not all that aggressive and they have yet to recover a single fumble in both their games. I am not concerned at all about this offense. I have no doubts they are going to put some points up on the board in this one as they have shown how explosive they can be. They are led by a bunch of veteran players who finally seem to understand what it takes to win away from home.
The UNLV Rebels are a virtual unknown in the world of college football betting and I think most of us would like it to remain that way. We are talking about a team, a program that has not made it to a Bowl Game since the 2000 Las Vegas Bowl and I don't know about you guys but I think Head Coach Mike Sanford sucks the big one. What has he done here since his arrival from being offensive coordinator in Utah? This is Sanford's fifth season as head coach of the Rebels and he is 12-37 SU in this position. One thing is clear with this team is that they are not good, they have not improved and I just don't see where things are going again 2009. They opened their season with a 38-3 win over I-AA Sacramento State and then followed that up with a close 23-21 loss to Oregon State here at home as a +6.5 point underdog. All you really need to know is that as a Head Coach here at UNLV, Mike Sanford has only been favored 12 times in 49 career games and the Rebels are 4-8 ATS in those games. They have done much better as underdogs and then only time I have placed wagers on this team in the past few seasons was as underdogs. I really don't think Sanford has what it takes to be successful and his defenses have been horrendous the last few seasons. Let's see how they handle an offense like Hawaii's. UNLV comes into this game averaging 29.5 points per game so far this season and they have managed to do that on 388.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Believe it or not, despite returning only 2 starters this season and having experts predict they will allow 40 points per game, Hawaii's defense has allowed only 20.0 points per game this season on 346.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play in those games. The Rebels love to run the ball as they average 149.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry but I don't know how much success they can have against a Hawaii defense that has allowed 129.5 rushing yards per game but also allowed 3.4 yards per carry which is pretty damn good. In the air, QB Omar Clayton has completed 72.1% of his passes for 383 passing yards, 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Having said that, he has a bad knee and could miss this game. The Hawaii secondary lacks big time experience but they have allowed their opponents to complete only 58.0% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. Their pass rush has been outstanding and they have 5 sacks on the season which has led to 3 interceptions by the youngsters which is also impressive. The Warriors have been very aggressive with their tackling as they have recovered a whopping 7 fumbles in two games this season. What needs to be know about this UNLB offense is that in both their games they have not done anything until very late in the game scoring 35 of their 59 points this season in the fourth quarter. Wow. They have scored only 10 total points in the first half of games and if they come out slow like that against Hawaii, they are going to get smoked. Don't forget, my expectations is for this Hawaii defense to allow some points in this game so don't expect too much from the just yet. It's the Hawaii offense that is going to cover and possibly win this game for us. Having said that, UNLV is a useless college football program with one of the most useless head coaches in the Nation.
I can tell you right now that a lot of people are going to bet on this game and I am very surprised at the opening line. I am all over the Warriors as underdogs in this spot because how can you possibly trust a head coach who has won only 12 of his 49 games coached at a school to win by more than seven points? Hawaii has won 9 of their last 12 games versus UNLV and they are 12-6 SU all-time against the Rebels. UNLV doesn't have a proficient defense to speak of, their starting QB is playing hurt and might miss the game and they have sucked the big one over the years when favored in games. Why does anyone like UNLV again? Hawaii has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog and they have covered 6 of their last 8 games versus teams from the Mountain West Conference. I love betting on Hawaii early in the year when opposing defenses have not figured the offense out yet and the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. UNLV is not easy to beat at home but again their success has come as underdogs. The Rebels are actually 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games played in September, they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games when favored and they are only 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. They have failed to cover the spread in their last four games versus WAC Conference opponents and are 2-8 ATS in their last eight home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. I don't see UNLV winning this game let alone covering a seven point spread.
Trend of the Game: UNLV is 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus WAC Conference opponents.
Hawaii 36, UNLV 22
:toast:
WEEK 3 RECAP
Miami Florida -4.5
Boise State -7.5
East Carolina +7 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Clemson -6.5
Virginia Tech -5
Oregon -5
Arizona +5.5
Oregon State +1
Northwestern -3
West Virginia +7
Georgia +1.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Hawaii +7.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
