MistaFlava's CFB Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2016 MistaFlava's CFB Betting Record: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)

Not the best first week ever but I sat out Saturday and tried to get a feel for things for a much bigger week this week.

2016 Season

Week 1: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)
Week 2: Pending...

Good Luck to everyone, some great money to be made out there!


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Friday, September 9


Louisville Cardinals -14.5 (10 Units)

So you have two options really tonight and it's Maryland down in Florida (FIU) or Louisville in Syracuse. At first glance Maryland looks like the easy wager but NOT SO FAST. I like Louisville. Had them last week, will have them again this week. QB Lamar Jackson is the real deal. 2 rushing TD's, 6 passing TD's. Wow. The Cardinals averaged 9.5 yards per play on 663 total yards of offense. I don't really care how well Syracuse's D did against...COLGATE? The only way the Orange cover this spread is if they find a way to force turnovers and in their opener they managed a big fat 0 turnovers forced and themselves turned the ball over once. The Cardinals O-Line will dominate and so will this offense.

Okay so Syracuse was impressive in their season opening 33-7 win over Colgate but let's get serious here. How in the world are the Orange going to deal with the pass rushing defense of Louisville who had 4 sacks last week? The Orange allowed their QB to be sacked 3 times against that weak Colgate team. The same D did not allow a single 3rd down conversion all game (0 for 13). Cuse is at home but if they can't run the ball they will struggle and last week they ran it for 117 yards on 3.3 yards per carry? Not going to work. Louisville allowed only 1.5 yard per carry last week. Overwhelmed is a good word here.

I took a shot with Louisville last week and won but betting on them away from home is where I have made my money as they have covered the spread in 20 of their last 26 road games. Don't get me wrong, Cuse could make this competitive and are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games dating back to last season but at the end of the day I have to go with Bobby Petrino and Louisville. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Syracuse.

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.


Louisville 36, Syracuse 18





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[Lvtexholdm]

Always enjoy reading your post. I'm riding with you on this game. Continued success Flava and thank you!

 

[indiana]

M/Flava........BOL with your action........good looking play.............indy

 

[fivestarjake]

Good luck flav

 

[MistaFlava]

Both favs covered easy tonight. Cardinals had a bit more trouble but that offense in unreal.

1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units) this week

Back with a few plays for tomorrow!

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Good work Flava! Continued success!!

 

[Soccerguru]

Best of luck this season!

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright so with a lot of plays on this CFB Saturday I will have to keep this somewhat short in writeups (don't have that much time anymore to sit here and spend 20-30 minutes on each writeup) so here goes nothing:


Saturday, September 10


Penn State Nittany Lions +4 (10 Units)

Neither team impressed me all that much in their opener last week so it's hard to tell who is going to show up here. Penn State had some issues on defense and allowed too many yards for my liking while Pittsburgh really struggled on offense and couldn't get their beastmode RB going for anything more than a few yards on the ground. Now I don't normally back Penn State away from...ever...because they are horrendous but this is a bit different. This is an in-State rivalry game that has not been played in 15+ years. I also can tell you that years of following Pitt football, they struggle the most at home and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. They have also covered the spread in only 2 of their last 10 non-conference games and covered only 2 of their last 7 games played in September. I know it's been forever since they've played but the Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings ('92, '97, '98 and '99).

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.


Penn State 17, Pittsburgh 16




Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (50 Units)

You have to love this play. The #6 team in the Nation, and I hate to say it, looked damn good last week with their 63-3 home win against Hawaii so why stop now? The offense is averaging 8.7 yards per play which includes 7.8 yards per carry and a whopping 10.3 yards per pass attempt. Central Florida is going to win some football games this season but it won't be outside their conference where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. It's also worth noting that UCF has been losing their backers money for quite some time now and have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 14 games overall. Michigan is now 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games dating back to last season and their relentless offense is going to put up some big numbers again in this one.

Trend of the Game: Central Florida is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.


Michigan 61, Central Florida 10




Purdue Boilermakers +5 (10 Units)

Both teams won last week and both failed to cover the spread. So what makes anyone think Cincinnati can walk right into Purdue and win a football game? Okay so I get the odds because Purdue has been God awful under their current head coach and against D1 schools since 2013 but this is going to be a rare win for them. Cincinnati was on my list of teams to blacklist away from home and there is no reason for that non to be the case again this season. CINCINNATI IS 1-9 ATS IN THEIR LAST 10 NON-CONFERENCE games and of their last 7 games played in September they have covered only 1. Purdue at home is typically a writeoff but Cincinnati is not that good. Purdue have actually covered the spread 4 of the last 5 times coming off an ATS loss. I say this sloppy games is just that...sloppy...and Purdue sneaks a win, a very rare one at that and cover the points.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.


Purdue 28, Cincinnati 21




Nebraska Cornhuskers -24.5 (25 Units)

This is another pretty big one for me. Although the spread seems massive and a lot of backers are going with Wyoming after their win last week I just think Nebrask in Omaha is something I cannot avoid at this time of the year against a non-conference opponent. The Huskers have a punishing ground attack that can really wear down any team. Wyoming put up some big numbers last week and I think they are due for an offensive letdown. The Huskers have not had problems with opponents from the Mountain West Conference in recent years going 4-1 ATS in their last five games and like I was talking about they are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games overall. This is an early game to and I see this getting ugly by late second quarter where Nebraska doesn't even let the Cowboys touch the ball for good portions of the second half.

Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Mountain West Conference opponents.




Air Force Falcons -21 (10 Units)

Small play for me here just trying to make an easy buck. Air Force is a very good team although they did not show it last week allowing a crazy 5.6 yards per play on 8.3 yards per pass attempt in their air. Having said that, Georgia State is averaging only 4.9 yards per pass attempt this season and they had two turnovers in their opener, something this Air Force defense needs to figure out. Offensively though the Falcons rushed for 401 total yards and 5.8 yards per carry and Georgia State is coming off a game where they allowed 325 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry. One of the reasons I am going small is because Georgia State has been an ATS machine in road games over the years but the Falcons have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 home games and I see them running all over Georgia State for the big win at home.

Trend of the Game: Air Force is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.


Air Force 34, Georgia State 10




Appalachian State Mountaineers -21 (25 Units)

Why stop now? I mean this could be a major letdown spot for the team that almost shocked the entire Nation last week with their near win over Tennessee away from home but these guys expect that of themselves. They really do. So I don't think they stop. Old Dominion put up 54 points on Hampton last week and covered their spread of 24 points with quite the ease but looking back at some of their road games last year I see a 25 point loss at Southern Miss, a 29 point loss at Florida International and a 20 point loss at Marshall. This App State team is arguably better than all those opponents. Old Dominion comes into this thing 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and for some reason they have not won a game on field turf in quite some time. I see the Appalachian State offense breaking out of their shell here and I see a huge home bounce back win from the devastating loss last week.

Trend of the Game: Old Dominion is 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.


Appalachian State 38, Old Dominion 10




OTHER PLAYS:

Ohio State Buckeyes -28 *10 Units
Baylor Bears -32 *10 Units
Notre Dame Fighting Irish-28 *25 Units
Alabama Crimson Tide -28 *25 Units
Akron Zips +23.5 *50 Units
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +3.5 *10 Units
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners +9.5 *50 Units
Indiana Hoosiers -16.5 *50 Units
Oklahoma Sooners -46 *50 Units
South Florida Bulls -15 *50 Units
Illinois Fighting Illini +7 *10 Units
Auburn Tigers -20 *10 Units
Eastern Michigan Eagles +24 *10 Units
Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 *25 Units
New Mexico Lobos -12.5 *25 Units
Oregon Ducks -23.5 *50 Units
California Golden Bears +7 *25 Units


Yes this is a lot of plays but I have some stake in all of these. Enjoy and good luck everyone!



:toast:

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Another must read. Thank you Flava!

 

[indiana]

M/Flava..........BOL with all your action.......on many of the same..........good looking card..........indy