MistaFlava's CFB Week 14 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (System Plays Inside)

[MistaFlava]

My posted record on the year something around 39-48-3 (12-6-1 ATS using system) doing my own handicapping using old schools methods.

Those who follow my threads in the NFL know I've come up with a pretty good system hitting at 75-80% clip and although the same system has not worked in college the last few weeks I've been working hard on it day and night to try and make it work.

System continues to be UPDATED by the week so bare with me!

So here goes nothing, hoping to hit 60% or better to call it a success.

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Thursday, December 3



Louisiana Tech at North Texas

Suggested Line 1: Louisiana Tech -4.53
Suggested Line 2: Louisiana Tech -5.65
Suggested Line 3: Louisiana Tech -4.65
Suggested Line 4: Louisiana Tech -4.33

Average Combined Line: Louisiana Tech -4.8

PLAY: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -1


The line for this game is all over the place and with the majority of public bets coming down on Louisiana Tech obviously their backers are going to be concerned with the line opening at -3 and moving to -1 right before kickoff but if you google a bunch of game predictions for this one you will see a ton of people on North Texas and predicting them to win. The only issue with Louisiana Tech is their lack of playing time and the fact that they have not played a football game since Halloween night which is a concern for most programs. Having said that, North Texas has one of the worst defenses in the Nation and there is a good chance Louisiana Tech had time to work on their brutal offensive line issues during their long hiatus from the game. That's really the key to this game. North Texas beat Rice and Middle Tennessee before getting crushed by 32 against UTSA last week as a +1.5 point underdog. North Texas has the #121 ranked rush defense in the Nation so any issues Louisiana Tech had running the ball coming in could be fixed in this one even if it takes time. The Bulldogs come into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record on the season and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games. Also keep in mind Louisiana Tech has covered the spread in their last four trips to North Texas, the Road Team has covered 6 of the last 8 and Louisiana Tech are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. North Texas have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 22 Conference games, they are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record, they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Home Games and are one of the worst ATS teams in college football the last three seasons covering the spread in only 7 of their last 28 games overall. Could be a slow start for the Bulldogs but they'll win this game.

Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last four games played at North Texas.


Louisiana Tech 37, North Texas 23





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[MistaFlava]

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Air Force at Utah State

Suggested Line 1: Air Force -9.57
Suggested Line 2: Air Force -8.43
Suggested Line 3: Air Force -8.56
Suggested Line 4: Air Force -9.12

Average Combined Line: Air Force -8.9

PLAY: Utah State Aggies +12.5


Sometimes it doesn't have to be pretty and a win is a win. That's exactly how things went for Utah State last week in their first win of 2020 as they beat the winless New Mexico State Lobos in a game that was anything but pretty but that turned into a pretty entertaining affair. Now if you watched the previous week you would know that Air Force and New Mexico played each other and you would know that if New Mexico had any sort of offensive IQ and had their starting quarterback been in the lineup they would have easily taken advantage of an Air Force team that turns over the ball a ton. In their one and only away game of the season Air Force managed to score only 6 total points and amassed only 298 total yards of offense against a pretty decent San Jose State team. I know the Aggies are not a good football team but QB Andrew Peasley seems to give them the best chance to win and has a QB Rating of 136.2 on the season compared to usual starter QB Jason Shelley who has a QB Rating of 89.8 this season and averaging only 4.2 yards per pass attempt compared to Peasley and his 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Peasley also has 3 touchdown passes to Shelley's 2. Air Force comes into this game 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Football games and they are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite. This program has always played down to the level of their opponent for some reason and are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a losing record at home. Incredible. The Home Team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Football games. Not a pretty game to bet on but I will trust the system and go with Utah State to keep this close.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools.


Utah State 31, Air Force 30





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[PullTheSlak]

Thx MF!!

 

[3pointdog]

Man, they are coming in with 2 fists on Air Force.. Line now at -13.5

 

[jamezwinn]

Bol MF!

 

[CrazyK]

MF, thank you for your time and service! You da maannn!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

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Saturday, December 5



Ohio State at Michigan State

Suggested Line 1: Ohio State -26.54
Suggested Line 2: Ohio State -27.99
Suggested Line 3: Ohio State -25.95
Suggested Line 4: Ohio State -26.38

Average Combined Line: Ohio State -26.7

PLAY: Ohio State Buckeyes -23


This one is simple. The system likes the Buckeyes to cover the spread on every single line and even the average combined line agrees. There are all these rumors out there about the Buckeyes not sending their entire team to East Lansing and how several guys are out with Covid issues but QB Justin Fields got on that plane today and the Buckeyes should be fine. They're a deep team even if they are missing a few starters and having not played since that dud against Indiana a few weeks ago you know this team is on the verge of exploding with or without their head coach there on the field. Michigan State is on a big time high coming off the big upset win over Northwestern but they obviously caught lightning in a bottle in that game and this is a classic letdown spot for a team that has look consistently bad all season. Regardless of the issues against Indiana the Buckeyes are still 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Big Ten Conference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. The Buckeyes have also covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played in East Lansing. Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in their last five games coming off a spread win the previous game and they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. On top of the the Spartans have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 17 home games. No thanks! Should have some public money swing their way as well which is a good thing. Buckeyes win big. They need to. Fields has a huge bounce back game.

Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played in East Lansing, Michigan.


Ohio State 46, Michigan State 10





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[MistaFlava]

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Texas A&M at Auburn

Suggested Line 1: Texas A&M -7.37
Suggested Line 2: Texas A&M -8.45
Suggested Line 3: Texas A&M -9.21
Suggested Line 4: Texas A&M -8.22

Average Combined Line: Texas A&M -8.3

PLAY: Texas A&M Aggies -5.5


The Texas A&M Aggies are currently ranked #5 in the College Football Playoff rankings and they are one blunder from the top teams away of somehow sneaking into the conversation for now. I think some will see this as a trap play but the system is calling for the Aggies to continue winning and cover this spread despite letting LSU score via the backdoor to cover the spread last week in what you could call a rather lackluster affair. Auburn on the other hand got their asses handed to them in demoralizing fashion last week to the tun of a 42-13 loss in the big rivalry game. They went into that game on a three game win streak and had not lost since that embarrassing road loss to South Carolina back on October 17. The last two times before last week that A&M did not cover a spread (vs Alabama in a 52-24 loss and vs Arkansas in a 42-31 win) they came out the next game both times and covered the spread (vs South Carolina and vs Florida). The Aggies come into this game 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a Road Favorite and the Road Team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools. Auburn on the other hand has been very good as a home dog over the years and at home in general but there is no fan advantage this season, they are coming off a blowout loss to their rivals and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Aggies should roll in a good revenge spot for a home loss to Auburn last year.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools.


Texas A&M 33, Auburn 19





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[MistaFlava]

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Texas at Kansas State

Suggested Line 1: Texas -3.55
Suggested Line 2: Texas -3.12
Suggested Line 3: Texas -4.39
Suggested Line 4: Texas -4.95

Average Combined Line: Texas -4.0

PLAY: Kansas State Wildcats +7.5


We all watched the Black Friday thriller between Iowa State and Texas where the winner had a great chance of going to the Big 12 Conference Championship Game. That was a game the Longhorns could have and should have won at home but they blew it late and the Cyclones came out with the big win and spread cover as a -1 point favorite. That essentially ended the season for Texas but now they have to pack up and go on the road and play an early afternoon game. The system is calling for them to come out flat in this game against a Kansas State team that has 4 wins (one less than Texas) and that is coming off a thriller versus Baylor as a +5.5 point road underdog. They didn't win but they covered and they compete and they have been very good at home since a very bad loss to Arkansas State in their opener. Since then they have beat Texas Tech by 10, beat Kansas by 41 and lost to Oklahoma State by only 2 as a +14 point home underdog. Texas comes into this game 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a Favorite, they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a losing record and they have covered the spread in only 1 of their last 7 Big 12 Conference games. The Home Team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two schools and Kansas State is an impressive 6-0 ATS in their last six home games versus Texas. Kansas State is also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Conference games, they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an Underdog and they have covered the spread in 20 of their last 28 Home Games as an Underdog. Some impressive numbers and the Wildcats should show up and win in this one.

Trend of the Game: Kansas State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Conference games.


Kansas State 41, Texas 26





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[MistaFlava]

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Oklahoma State at Texas Christian

Suggested Line 1: Texas Christian -0.56
Suggested Line 2: Oklahoma State -0.22
Suggested Line 3: Texas Christian -1.22
Suggested Line 4: Texas Christian -0.98

Average Combined Line: Texas Christian -0.6

PLAY: Texas Christian Horned Frogs +2.5


This line is somewhat shocking considering that the public is once again ALL OVER the Cowboys in this game like they were all over the Cowboys last week against Texas Tech only to get screwed by a few late touchdowns to allow the Red Raiders to come swooping through the back door. These two teams are a lot closer than people think and again the Cowboys have been flirting around with disaster in quite a few of their games. Don't forget their overtime loss to Texas and then the near loss to Kansas State on the road the following game and then the blowout home loss to Oklahoma in Bedlam. This team is not really playing well right now but I will tell you who is playing well. TCU is playing well. They come into this game off a massive win against hapless Kansas last week where they had a bit of fun and still won the game big and they beat Baylor and Texas Tech in the two games before that as well. Impressive. Their losses this season are to Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State. Three of four very good opponents. Oklahoma State comes into this game having dropped the spread in four straight Big 12 Conference games and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing 40+ points in their previous game. I have never trusted TCU in Home Games because they have never been good but one thing I know is that in the series between these two schools the Underdog is always the way to go and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. The Home Team has also covered 6 of the last 8 meetings and TCU should continue their strong play and win this game.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.


Texas Christian 30, Oklahoma State 20





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[buckshotbookies]

GL Mr Flava much respect for what you do.

 

[MistaFlava]

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Florida at Tennessee

Suggested Line 1: Florida -13.47
Suggested Line 2: Florida -14.45
Suggested Line 3: Florida -14.31
Suggested Line 4: Florida -12.53

Average Combined Line: Florida -13.7

PLAY: Tennessee Volunteers +17.5


The Florida Gators are on the cusp but if we are being honest do they really have a chance to make it into the College Football Playoff? Maybe. Nonetheless they have a few more games to go before the inevitable crash course game with Alabama and they have to be careful. The Gators were somewhat sloppy last week in the first half against Kentucky before pulling away and winning by 24 in the end while Tennessee come into this game on a five game losing streak. Having said that, the Vols are coming off a bye week, they are well rested and got some guys back to health during the time off and they have NOTHING to lose. That's the important statement right there, nothing to lose. My system has called for the Vols to keep this closer than the experts think and this could easily be one of those classic SEC grinder games where the Underdog finds a way to control the clock on several drives and score more points than people expect. The pressure continues to build on QB Kyle Trask who is now the odds on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. I know there isn't much hope for Tennessee and the way they have played so far in 2020 but I'm telling you I think the BYE week is exactly what they needed and I will follow the system in the belief that they are going to keep things competitive in this game.

Trend of the Game: Tennessee has won 121 of their last 170 Saturday Home Games.


Florida 34, Tennessee 24




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[MistaFlava]

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West Virginia at Iowa State

Suggested Line 1: Iowa State -9.97
Suggested Line 2: Iowa State -8.53
Suggested Line 3: Iowa State -9.22
Suggested Line 4: Iowa State -8.17

Average Combined Line: Iowa State -9.0

PLAY: Iowa State Cyclones -6.5


The Iowa State Cyclones looked like they were going down to Texas on Black Friday but some late magic in that game won them the game and essentially put them in the Big 12 Conference Championship game but they know they can't get complacent. Right now the Cyclones are on a crash course with Oklahoma for that Big 12 Championship and possible College Football Playoff bid and I don't think we'll see any kind of letdown in this game. The West Virginia Mountaineers are on a nice little run right now where they have covered the spread in three straight games and 5 of their last 6 games but none of those games were against the Big 3 in the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Iowa State or Oklahoma State). The Mountaineers lost 27-13 to Oklahoma State earlier this season and what kind of concerns me coming into this game is that they have not played a game of football for close to 3 weeks now with their last game coming on November 14 in a big win over Texas Christian. Now they run into a team coming off a huge win and gunning for a Conference Championship. Looking back at history, the Mountaineers have been awful in December games covering the spread in only 3 of their last 16. The Favorite in this series is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the Cyclones comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a Favorite. I think it's also worth noting that the Mountaineers have played the weakest overall schedule of all Big 12 Conference teams this season and come in slightly overrated numbers wise. The system is calling for a big Iowa State win and I'm on it.

Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools.


Iowa State 36, West Virginia 16





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[max05]

thanks for the plays

 

[MistaFlava]

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Iowa at Illinois

Suggested Line 1: Iowa -10.39
Suggested Line 2: Iowa -9.98
Suggested Line 3: Iowa -8.44
Suggested Line 4: Iowa -10.12

Average Combined Line: Iowa -9.7

PLAY: Illinois Fighting Illini +13.5


The Iowa Hawkeyes had a reality check type game on Black Friday when they were taken to the brink by the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game with a very similar line to this one. Some will wonder if that was just a one off or if there is something not right with the Hawkeyes offense. Maybe they have become too predictable and running the ball so much is not the way to go. I mean QB Spencer Petras has thrown for 1138 passing yards this season but he has completed only 56.3% of his passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 4 Touchdown Passes and 5 Interceptions. After a really rough start to the season (maybe disappointing is the best word), Illinois come into this game on a two game win streak having beaten Rutgers and Nebraska their last two times out and now they've had an extra week to prepare for this game and find a way to get their record back to .500. I mean a Bowl Game is still definitely an option and despite big losses earlier in the season this team has really turned a corner and played some good football while Iowa could be starting to tire a little bit. I know a lot of trends point to Iowa in this game but keep in mind Illinois is an impressive 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten Conference games, they have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an Underdog and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win. Iowa was almost upset on Black Friday and they won't get away with it this time against a team playing good football and coming off a bye week.

Trend of the Game: Illinois is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten Conference games.


Illinois 34, Iowa 31





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[exploited17]

I am liking a bunch of these
GL tomorrow

 

[MistaFlava]

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Boston College at Virginia

Suggested Line 1: Virginia -7.45
Suggested Line 2: Virginia -6.58
Suggested Line 3: Virginia -8.40
Suggested Line 4: Virginia -8.56

Average Combined Line: Virginia -7.7

PLAY: Virginia Cavaliers -3.5


This is an interesting game and I wasn't sure what we would get before I ran the numbers but sure enough the system loves the Cavaliers to win and cover in this game and all four lines suggest they will. The Cavaliers come into this game on an impressive three game win streak and they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They are going to be well rested, healthy and ready to rock after having an off week and playing their last game on November 21. Boston College is coming off a 34-27 win over Louisville last weekend and that was coming off their own BYE Week. They covered the spread as a -1 point favorite in that game but have been such an inconsistent team that I feel good going against them. Don't forget this is the same Boston College team that went to Virginia Tech earlier this season and lost 40-14 and the same team that struggled a few weeks back against Syracuse. Rarely do you see their good side two weeks in a row. Dating back years and years Boston College are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 December games and they are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a straight up win the game before. Virginia is an impressive 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a game where they score 40+ points and they have covered the spread in 20 of their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record and are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Home Games. This game should be a good one and Virginia pulls away late.

Trend of the Game: Virginia is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record.


Virginia 27, Boston College 19





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[indiana]

Mr. Flava.........strong looking card buddy.....BOL with all your action.........

here's to a successful and profitable day my friend.......indy

 

[realbigmoe]

Thank you Flava Flav - I probably don't speak for everybody but I bet I'm not the only one gonna play them all. If I may ask one question why the change in announcement time so far before the typical 5-10 mins pre? Have we eliminated late line movement from the system or was it never a factor?

 

[riversfan]

The typical 5-10 minutes pregame is for NFL. Not college.