MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 32-31-1 ATS (-94.80 Units) 51%
I started off last week pretty damn well but ended up going nowhere (making a bit of cash) with another piss poor Saturday. I don't think I have won a Saturday afternoon game all season (the noon hour games). So back on the saddle for this week. I didn't bet last night, decided to sit back and watch the MAC Conference for a change. All I really want is to win some of my money back and avoid one of my largest losing seasons in a long time. There are some great games this week, we are approaching Bowl Season and Championship season, lets make this happen guys.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 ATS)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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I started off last week pretty damn well but ended up going nowhere (making a bit of cash) with another piss poor Saturday. I don't think I have won a Saturday afternoon game all season (the noon hour games). So back on the saddle for this week. I didn't bet last night, decided to sit back and watch the MAC Conference for a change. All I really want is to win some of my money back and avoid one of my largest losing seasons in a long time. There are some great games this week, we are approaching Bowl Season and Championship season, lets make this happen guys.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 ATS)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, November 20
Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (50 Units)
***THURSDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (50 Units)
***THURSDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Miami Hurricanes are making a serious run for the ACC Coastal Divison Title and tonight is a must win game. Cmon oddsmakers, how can you have my boys from the 'U' as underdogs tonight? I mean this is the team that has won five straight games going 3-2 ATS in those games. During that streak the team has wins over Central Florida by 6, Duke by 18 on the road, Wake Forest by 6, Virginia by 7 on the road in overtime and more recently Virginia Tech by 2 at home. Everything points to another close game here and what you have to like about the Canes is that they are back as a program and they are winning those close games that they have been losing the last couple of seasons. Their last loss was back on October 4 against Florida State in a 41-39 thriller which means they have not lost a game by 3.5 points or more since their September 27 four point home loss against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The only other game this season they lost by more than 3.5 points was their blowout loss to Florida earlier in the season so I don't think you have to worry. This is a nice revenge spot for the Canes seeing how they lost to this same Georgia Tech team 17-14 at home last season as a -2 point favorite (heavily backed by the public as well). This is a much better team and they should be in for one of their best games of the season tonight. I don't think the Canes are going to win this game on offense seeing how their offense has slowed down the last few weeks and is averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games on 330.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Not too bad. Georgia Tech's defense has allowed 26.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed 364.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Canes have run the ball effectively averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.7 yards per carry which has given them a time of possession edge in most games. That could be a problem for a Georgia Tech team that has struggled against the run all season and that has allowed 169.3 rushing yards per game the last three games for 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Robert Marve has completed only 51.9% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which means he is a big risk-reward QB. He has thrown only 1 interception the last three games which is a big improvement from earlier this season and his offensive line has struggled allowing 8 sacks in those three games. Lucky for the Canes Georgia Tech has managed only three sacks the last three games. Their secondary has three interceptions in those games and are not playing as well as they were earlier this season. The key for the Canes in this game is not only to keep control of the clock and keep the Georgia Tech offense off the field but it's also to avoid taking stupid penalties, something that has now plagued them for the last two or three seasons. The Canes average 6.0 penalties per game their last three games for 50.3 penalty yards per game which just won't work if they keep that up. Scoring points in the first half has now become an issue for the Canes but if they can get the running game going early and sustain long drives to keep the Yellow Jackets cold on the sidelines, I give them a very good chance of putting this game away early. Miami has been playing some pretty damn good football and coach Shannon really has these guys believing they can win the Division and play in the ACC Conference Title Game for the first time in a long time.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a team that has burned all season long. When I bet on them, they lose, when I bet against them, I get killed. So why the hell do I keep bothering with these guys? Because I think I have figured things out here. The importance of this game is colossal for both teams tonight because the winner takes sole possession of first place in the ACC Conference Coastal Division and is in the drivers seat heading into the final few weeks of the season. The Jackets have played some very surprising and outstanding football under new head coach Paul Johnson and I say surprising because coach Johnson has not had the chance to recruit the kind of players needed to run this kind of offense and he has been forced to work with what he has in front of him. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 7-3 SU this season but they are also 5-2-1 ATS this season and they have cashed in more times than not. Having said that, the team has lost two of its last three games. That includes last week's blowout road loss at North Carolina by a final score of 24-7 on top of the 24-17 home loss to Virginia two weeks ago. So as well as they have played this season, it looks like opposing teams are catching on to this running game and countering with long drives and points of their own. This game is huge and for a young bunch of guys playing under a new head coaches system, I don't know that they have what it takes to stop the Canes here. Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging 18.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 341.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense has been on absolute fire and is arguably the best in the ACC Conference and they have allowed only 13.7 points per game in their last three games on 271.0 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. Now if you can stop the run and force turnovers, are going to beat the Jackets. Georgia Tech is averaging 256.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Having said that, Miami's run defense has been outstanding the last three games allowing 114.3 rushing yards per game and allowing only 3.0 yards per carry in those games. That should force the Jackets to throw a lot more than they are used to. Georgia Tech has completed only 47.7% of their passes the last three games for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. If they can't run and they can't pass with any effectiveness, I just don't see how this offense is going to get going tonight. Miami's defene has allowed the last three teams they have faced to complete 60.9% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. They do allow quite a few yards through the air but the question tonight is, how can Georgia Tech possibly move the ball through the air with their atrocious passing game? That should allow the Canes to concentrate on shutting down the running attack, leaving the Jackets with little or no room for mistakes. The Jackets have allowed 6 sacks in their last three games and could be in serious trouble tonight against a Canes defense that has managed 9 sacks their last three games. Miami has no interceptions in their last three games which is incredible but if you combined the useleness of the Georgia Tech passing game with the pass rushing effectiveness of the Hurricanes, I can almost guarantee this secondary comes down with one or two interceptions in this game. I recommend not panicking if you are on the Canes and they go down early in this game because they have the kind of defense that takes an entire half to get going and the proof of that lies in the fact that they have allowed 11.4 points per first half their last three games compared to only 2.3 points per second half in those very same games. Good teams make the right adjustments at halftime and it looks like this defense knows exactly how to close games when they need to close games. The Yellow Jackets have to play a mistake free game and something tells me that's not going to happen. This is the same team that has fumbled 6 times the last three games and lost 5 of those fumbles. Miami's defense is relentless and they are going to make things happen tonight.
This game is for first place in the ACC Conference Coastal Division. Plain and simple, nothing else to it. I can't believe this bogus line they have out for this game. Overall Miami is a better team than Georgia Tech but the books have put some home advantage line money on the Yellow Jackets and I just don't think they deserve it. Sure they have played well at home but this is going to be a tight game and the points are just too much. You have to believe in the better defenses in this Conference. The ACC Conference is now the second best Conference in the Country after the Big 12 and the teams with better defense are going to shine. The Hurricanes have the best defense in the Conference and I think it will make all the difference in the world tonight. Miami has covered the spread in five straight road games but they have not been the best team coming off a bye over the years, something I expect coach Shannon to have resolved by the end of tonight. Georgia Tech on the other hand have played well after losing the game before but they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 19 games versus teams with winning road records and I don't think they stand a chance tonight. They have beat up on some weak road teams and now they face their toughest opponent all season, a team that is much better than the Virginia team that won here three weeks ago. Go with the Canes large tonight guys, this is my top thursday night play of the year so far. CANES TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 home games versus teams with a winning road record.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 17
:toast:
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a team that has burned all season long. When I bet on them, they lose, when I bet against them, I get killed. So why the hell do I keep bothering with these guys? Because I think I have figured things out here. The importance of this game is colossal for both teams tonight because the winner takes sole possession of first place in the ACC Conference Coastal Division and is in the drivers seat heading into the final few weeks of the season. The Jackets have played some very surprising and outstanding football under new head coach Paul Johnson and I say surprising because coach Johnson has not had the chance to recruit the kind of players needed to run this kind of offense and he has been forced to work with what he has in front of him. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 7-3 SU this season but they are also 5-2-1 ATS this season and they have cashed in more times than not. Having said that, the team has lost two of its last three games. That includes last week's blowout road loss at North Carolina by a final score of 24-7 on top of the 24-17 home loss to Virginia two weeks ago. So as well as they have played this season, it looks like opposing teams are catching on to this running game and countering with long drives and points of their own. This game is huge and for a young bunch of guys playing under a new head coaches system, I don't know that they have what it takes to stop the Canes here. Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging 18.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 341.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense has been on absolute fire and is arguably the best in the ACC Conference and they have allowed only 13.7 points per game in their last three games on 271.0 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. Now if you can stop the run and force turnovers, are going to beat the Jackets. Georgia Tech is averaging 256.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Having said that, Miami's run defense has been outstanding the last three games allowing 114.3 rushing yards per game and allowing only 3.0 yards per carry in those games. That should force the Jackets to throw a lot more than they are used to. Georgia Tech has completed only 47.7% of their passes the last three games for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. If they can't run and they can't pass with any effectiveness, I just don't see how this offense is going to get going tonight. Miami's defene has allowed the last three teams they have faced to complete 60.9% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. They do allow quite a few yards through the air but the question tonight is, how can Georgia Tech possibly move the ball through the air with their atrocious passing game? That should allow the Canes to concentrate on shutting down the running attack, leaving the Jackets with little or no room for mistakes. The Jackets have allowed 6 sacks in their last three games and could be in serious trouble tonight against a Canes defense that has managed 9 sacks their last three games. Miami has no interceptions in their last three games which is incredible but if you combined the useleness of the Georgia Tech passing game with the pass rushing effectiveness of the Hurricanes, I can almost guarantee this secondary comes down with one or two interceptions in this game. I recommend not panicking if you are on the Canes and they go down early in this game because they have the kind of defense that takes an entire half to get going and the proof of that lies in the fact that they have allowed 11.4 points per first half their last three games compared to only 2.3 points per second half in those very same games. Good teams make the right adjustments at halftime and it looks like this defense knows exactly how to close games when they need to close games. The Yellow Jackets have to play a mistake free game and something tells me that's not going to happen. This is the same team that has fumbled 6 times the last three games and lost 5 of those fumbles. Miami's defense is relentless and they are going to make things happen tonight.
This game is for first place in the ACC Conference Coastal Division. Plain and simple, nothing else to it. I can't believe this bogus line they have out for this game. Overall Miami is a better team than Georgia Tech but the books have put some home advantage line money on the Yellow Jackets and I just don't think they deserve it. Sure they have played well at home but this is going to be a tight game and the points are just too much. You have to believe in the better defenses in this Conference. The ACC Conference is now the second best Conference in the Country after the Big 12 and the teams with better defense are going to shine. The Hurricanes have the best defense in the Conference and I think it will make all the difference in the world tonight. Miami has covered the spread in five straight road games but they have not been the best team coming off a bye over the years, something I expect coach Shannon to have resolved by the end of tonight. Georgia Tech on the other hand have played well after losing the game before but they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 19 games versus teams with winning road records and I don't think they stand a chance tonight. They have beat up on some weak road teams and now they face their toughest opponent all season, a team that is much better than the Virginia team that won here three weeks ago. Go with the Canes large tonight guys, this is my top thursday night play of the year so far. CANES TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 home games versus teams with a winning road record.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 17
:toast:
