MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 28-27-1 ATS (-101.30 Units) 51%
Not having a good season at all, down some big money and struggling trying to get back to what I was at in the 2005 and 2006 seasons. It's been a rough couple of years but we still have some time to go and I think I can dig out of this hole with a few big plays. I took a week off, made some predictions of my own, saved my money and decided to just chill out for a bit. My largest lean Week 10 was on Miami over Virginia and it hit. Back to business we go, good luck to all this week.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 1000 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Not having a good season at all, down some big money and struggling trying to get back to what I was at in the 2005 and 2006 seasons. It's been a rough couple of years but we still have some time to go and I think I can dig out of this hole with a few big plays. I took a week off, made some predictions of my own, saved my money and decided to just chill out for a bit. My largest lean Week 10 was on Miami over Virginia and it hit. Back to business we go, good luck to all this week.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 1000 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, November 11
Miami Ohio Redhawks +18.5 (5 Units)
Miami Ohio Redhawks +18.5 (5 Units)
The Ball State Cardinals wish they had a chance at the BCS but a weak MAC Conference schedule and a much better Utah team already have the smaller conference slot right now and all the Cardinals can really do is sit back, hope to win the MAC Conference and play in a mid-level Bowl Game come December. I mean their biggest wins this season came against Indiana and Navy which doesn't do too much for me. There is no doubt they have one of the most powerful offenses in the MAC Conference and they can score points in bunches but you have to consider that they have two much bigger games on their minds coming up the next two weeks (Central Michigan and Western Michigan) because to them staying undefeated is a must and I see them losing one of those two games. Ball State's road wins this season have come by 22 points, 17 points (twice) and 31 points which means they have won only 2 of their 4 road games this season by the amount they need to cover tonight. Let's face it guys, sure the Cardinals are 7-1 ATS on the season in their games but I think they are vulnerable in a game like this having played the 118th toughest schedule in college football this season which is not saying much. Ball State comes into this game averaging 35.7 points per game in their last three games on 430.7 total yards of offense and 7.1 yards per play in those games. That's more than a handful for Miami Ohio who have allowed 37.0 points per game on 416.0 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in their last three games. There is no doubt on anyone's minds that Ball State can run the Redhawks into the ground tonight as they have averaged 194.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. I say that because Miami Ohio has allowed 200.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 5.3 yards per carry in those games. Looks like a disaster. In the air, the Cardinals have completed 66.2% of their passes the last three games for 9.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. I know the Redhawks have allowed some big plays in the air as of late as their last three opponents have completed 61.2% of their passes in those games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I do like the fact that Miami Ohio has 5 sacks in their last three games and if they can get any kind of pressure on QB Nate Davis they might force some mistakes. It is also possible that Ball State will want to run some clock and simply make it out of this game alive seeing how a blowout does not really benefit them at this point in the season and making it to the end without a loss is more their goal. Easier said than done boys, these are the dangerous games I am telling you right now. Miami Ohio's defense has not done jack for weeks now forcing only 1 interceptions and 0 fumbles recovered the last three games so you know they are due to make some things happen and that could come at the expense of Davis and his Cardinals if they take them lightly. Ball State is known for their discipline as they have averaged only 2.3 penalties per game the last three games but Miami Ohio is just as disciplined and the advantage ends there. Ball State have averaged only 3.3 points per first quarter in their last three games and its slow starts like this on cold November nights on the road and on National TV that could have them in a hole they don't want to be in. Watch out Ball State backers.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are a very dangerous team here tonight because they have nothing to lose whatsoever. Their season is already down the gutter, they are the worst ranked team in the MAC Conference this season and things are just not going well. However, they have a home game on National TV tonight against a ranked team that has very small BCS aspirations and that is vying for an undefeated record in the MAC Conference. What more do you need for motivation than that if you are Miami Ohio? I know the Redhawks were blown out of the water their last two home games but I go back to some of the games they were not supposed to win this season and they did pretty well. Miami Ohio is actually 3-1 ATS in underdog situations this season which has me thinking they do step up to the plate when expected to get smashed. They were spread covering dogs against Michigan in Ann Arbour losing only 16-6 and then they covered the spread as dogs against both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green (both games played on the road in recent weeks). There is no reason for me to believe that this team is not capable of controlling the clock in this game, taking advantage of Ball State's slow starts as of late and scoring enough points to keep the game close or win straight up. Miami Ohio comes into this game averaging 21.7 points per game the last three games and they have managed to do that on 349.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Ball State has been very good defensively as they have allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 334.3 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.1 yards per play. So the question now is how does Miami Ohio score enough to keep this game close? Well they don't need to. The RedHawks love to run the ball and they run it quite well as they have averaged 169.0 rushing yard per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. The problem for Ball State is that they have allowed 136. rushing yards per game in their last three games on a quite large 4.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, the Redhawks have to find a way to move the ball. They have completed only 54.5% of their passes the last three games for 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Ball State's secondary can make some plays as they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 59.2% of their passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The pass protection has been mediocre at best for the Redhawks but Ball State has only 4 sacks in their last three games and their pass rush is not efficient enough to create that much havoc in the pocket. The real key here for Miami Ohio is to run the ball as much as possible because we know they can do it effectively and then catch Ball State sleeping on some play action passes. The special teams are also going to be huge in this game because to win as a big underdog you have to make some big plays when the offense is on the sidelines and over the years the Redhawks have been known to do that on quite a few occasions. Miami Ohio has lost 6 fumbles the last three games so they need to hold onto the ball and scored everytime they enter Ball State's 30 yard line. They have the running game to do it and what I think is going to happen is that the Redhawks are going to control the clock, make some big plays on special teams and pretty much rock the MAC Conference world with a big win in this game. I like the upset.
In the end, I don't think Ball State shows up for this game. Yes they have been up to the task on many occasions this season but this game has letdown written all over it and with the National TV audience watching, Miami Ohio will probably find some sort of motivation to win or come close to winning this game. It's funny because this is actually a matchup between the best team in the MAC Conference versus the very worst team in the MAC Conference. Everything in this game points to a complete blowout by Ball State but this game is going to be a lot lower scoring than people think and the weather (cold) is probably going to be a factor here keeping this game low-scoring and clock controlling by the Redhawks. Miami Ohio has nothing to lose whatsoever and I think this is a game they show up for. I am calling for the straight up upset or very close to it.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games versus teams with a winning record.
Miami Ohio 23, Ball State 21
:toast:
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are a very dangerous team here tonight because they have nothing to lose whatsoever. Their season is already down the gutter, they are the worst ranked team in the MAC Conference this season and things are just not going well. However, they have a home game on National TV tonight against a ranked team that has very small BCS aspirations and that is vying for an undefeated record in the MAC Conference. What more do you need for motivation than that if you are Miami Ohio? I know the Redhawks were blown out of the water their last two home games but I go back to some of the games they were not supposed to win this season and they did pretty well. Miami Ohio is actually 3-1 ATS in underdog situations this season which has me thinking they do step up to the plate when expected to get smashed. They were spread covering dogs against Michigan in Ann Arbour losing only 16-6 and then they covered the spread as dogs against both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green (both games played on the road in recent weeks). There is no reason for me to believe that this team is not capable of controlling the clock in this game, taking advantage of Ball State's slow starts as of late and scoring enough points to keep the game close or win straight up. Miami Ohio comes into this game averaging 21.7 points per game the last three games and they have managed to do that on 349.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Ball State has been very good defensively as they have allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 334.3 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.1 yards per play. So the question now is how does Miami Ohio score enough to keep this game close? Well they don't need to. The RedHawks love to run the ball and they run it quite well as they have averaged 169.0 rushing yard per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. The problem for Ball State is that they have allowed 136. rushing yards per game in their last three games on a quite large 4.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, the Redhawks have to find a way to move the ball. They have completed only 54.5% of their passes the last three games for 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Ball State's secondary can make some plays as they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 59.2% of their passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The pass protection has been mediocre at best for the Redhawks but Ball State has only 4 sacks in their last three games and their pass rush is not efficient enough to create that much havoc in the pocket. The real key here for Miami Ohio is to run the ball as much as possible because we know they can do it effectively and then catch Ball State sleeping on some play action passes. The special teams are also going to be huge in this game because to win as a big underdog you have to make some big plays when the offense is on the sidelines and over the years the Redhawks have been known to do that on quite a few occasions. Miami Ohio has lost 6 fumbles the last three games so they need to hold onto the ball and scored everytime they enter Ball State's 30 yard line. They have the running game to do it and what I think is going to happen is that the Redhawks are going to control the clock, make some big plays on special teams and pretty much rock the MAC Conference world with a big win in this game. I like the upset.
In the end, I don't think Ball State shows up for this game. Yes they have been up to the task on many occasions this season but this game has letdown written all over it and with the National TV audience watching, Miami Ohio will probably find some sort of motivation to win or come close to winning this game. It's funny because this is actually a matchup between the best team in the MAC Conference versus the very worst team in the MAC Conference. Everything in this game points to a complete blowout by Ball State but this game is going to be a lot lower scoring than people think and the weather (cold) is probably going to be a factor here keeping this game low-scoring and clock controlling by the Redhawks. Miami Ohio has nothing to lose whatsoever and I think this is a game they show up for. I am calling for the straight up upset or very close to it.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games versus teams with a winning record.
Miami Ohio 23, Ball State 21
:toast:
