Mistaflava's CFB Week 12 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) 9-2 ATS last Saturday!

[MistaFlava]

2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 89-78-2 ATS (+91.50 Units)

2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 7-4 ATS (+68.50.Units)


What an incredible week last week. Went 9-2 ATS (+108.00 Units) on Saturday and finished 9-4 ATS overall on the week. We have another full slate of games this week that start on Tuesday and it's time to keep the money train going.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Tuesday, November 12



Akron Zips +17 (10 Units)

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are a 17 point road favorite against an FBS opponent. Please let that sink in for one second and tell me what you think. We are talking about the 4-5 Eastern Michigan Eagles who are 2-3 away from home. This is the same Eagles team that went to Central Michigan earlier this season as a -4 point favorite and came out on the losing end of a 42-16 beatdown. They did beat Coastal Carolina in their season opener a road favorite but over the course of the last 10 seasons they have been a road favorite only 6 times and covered 3 of them. I’m not buying this. EMU comes into this game averaging 27.3 points per game on 403.7 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play but what people quickly forget is that Akron’s defense is not the problem. Despite allowing 35 points per game their last three games the defense is allowing only 4.0 yards per play their last three games. Their run defense is allowing a solid 3.7 yards per carry and in the air they’ve allowed only 4.8 yards per pass attempt while forcing 6 fumbles and recovering 3. The offensive line for Eastern Michigan has been an issue (8 sacks in last three games) and the Zips are due for an interception or two. I like the Zips defense to “step up” tonight.

The Akron Zips are considered the worst football team in FBS College Football because not only are they 0-9 SU but they are also 0-9 ATS and have not covered the spread in one single game this season. Part of the problem is their offense and how bad they have been scoring a grand total of 9 points in their last four games since their bye week after their worst loss of the season versus UMass. Having said that, all hope is not lost. Akron is 5-2 versus Eastern Michigan who come into this game with the #109 ranked scoring defense in the Country and the #116 ranked run defense in the Nation. Akron should be able to take advantage of this. I am very aware that Akron is averaging an NCAA low 2.6 yards per play their last three games but the Zips are averaging 4.6 yards per play at home this season and that’s a great start. Eastern Michigan’s defense is horrific away from home this season allowing 34.2 points per game on 478.8 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. Their opponents have run for 230.8 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry and their secondary has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Pass protection and offensive line play has been a big issue for Akron allowing 13 sacks in their last three games and averaging 42 rushing yards per game (WTF?) but all that changes tonight. Turnovers have also been an issue as the Zips have turned it over 11 times in their last three games but EMU has forced only 3 turnovers their last three games. Like I said I think Akron finally gets things going tonight.

The MAC Conference midweek games were back last week and we saw upset after upset. This is the time to bet on Akron even though they are 0-9 ATS coming in. Sounds crazy but it’s the right side. The last time they hosted Eastern Michigan the Zips were a +8.5 point home underdog and they ended up winning 47-21. Eastern Michigan’s defense is horrendous and it’s hard to cover big spreads on the road when your D can’t make a stop. Not even against the worst offense in FBS Football. The world is on Eastern Michigan in this game and you know what that means in MAC Conference play. Fade, fade, fade. This might be hard to digest for some but Akron is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Tuesday night games. Eastern Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a losing record. The UNDERDOG is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. People will be left scratching their heads tonight as to how all of this went wrong with their EMU plays. I am calling for Akron to win straight up.

Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.


Akron 23, Eastern Michigan 20




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Shame on me for big time for betting on Akron. They probably won't cover a single game this season. Awful football. At least made up for it in NBA. Back at it tonight with one play.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Wednesday, November 13




Northern Illinois +2.5 (10 Units)

The Northern Illinois Huskies were not predicted to be a top team in the MAC West Division when the season started but they were picked as a team that could really make some "noise" when the tough got going. Well tonight is their chance to do that. Not just to ruin the party for Toledo in the West, because hope is very bleak anyways, but to make a Bowl Game. With Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan left on the schedule at home, things are not impossible for Thomas Hammock and his guys. The first year coach has had some ups and downs in his first season coaching FBS football and if you can forget about last week's 48-10 loss at Central Michigan, you will see that the Huskies have played well at times this year going to Utah and losing by only 18 (spread cover), going to Vanderbilt and losing by only 6 and then going to Ohio and beating the Bobcats 39-36. They also went to MAC East leading Miami-Ohio and lost by 3. So this is a competitive team, aside from last week and this is good bounce back spot for them. The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points per game their last three games and although it has come on only 4.6 yards per play, they get to play a Toledo defense that has been atrocious. Really atrocious. The Rockets have allowed 39.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 488 total yards of offense on 7.3 yards per play. They've been run on for 238.3 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry in those games and the Northern Illinois running game has actually been better the last three games than it has been all season averaging 137.7 rushing yards per game. NIU QB Marcus Childers, who barely played in the blowout loss last week as they went with Cal transfer Ross Bowers (3 interceptions in that game), has been good this season and the Huskies would be wise to go with him again here despite the early struggles last week. He has a QB Rating of 147.7 on the season and has thrown 4 TD passes to 0 interceptions and has rushed for 2 touchdowns (ran for 6 last year). The last three quarterbacks to play against this Toledo defense have an average QB Rating of 176.0 so I don't know how the Rockets are going to stop this NIU offense.

The lesson was learned and it was learned the hard way last week. I have been warning bettors for years to stay away from the Toledo Rockets in all sports and specifically in mid-week MAC Conference games because of the years the scandals are numerous and we all bit on it last week against Kent State. Including me. Toledo was favored by 7 then 6 then 5 then 4 then 3 by gametime in that game and guess what? They ended up winning by 2 points. I mean how is that not a complete joke? Sure they are still alive in the MAC West and have the tiebreaker with Western Michigan (5 conference wins) because they beat them back on October 5 but Northern Illinois has always been a problem for Toledo and they are only 2-7 versus these guys since the 2010 season. Not good. The real question and nobody seems to know this is who is going to play quarterback for the Rockets in this game? Starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is still hurt and his replacement Carter Bradley is also hurt. That leaves QB Eli Peters who is an Illinois transfer and looked good at times last week but also looked awful at times last week. Despite allowing 48 points against Centreal Michigan last week this Northern Illinois defense is actually not that bad. Sure they have allowed 25 points per game in their last three games on 6.0 yards per play but they should be able to slow down a Toledo run game that is averaging 267.3 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. In the air, the QB play has just not been good enough for me to ever back Toledo again until their starter is back in form. The Rockets QB's have a QB Rating of only 108.8 the last three games, not good at all in the MAC Conference and NIU's defense has allowed the last three QB's they have faced a QB Rating of 127.4. Meh. Nowhere near as bad as the Toledo defense that's for sure. Also consider that Toledo has fumbled the ball 7 times in their last three games and lost 5 of those fumbles and they usually find a way to beat themselves. I don't trust them.

If you were no Toledo minus whatever (between 3 and 7) last week, there is zero chance you are going in on that again this week knowing their history in games like this. Northern Illinois is not a bad football team and they're offense can score. The Rockets ALWAYS find a way to screw bettors like they did last week. Now with 76% of the betting tickets on Toledo, I feel ever better going with the Huskies and the points. Don't forget NIU has an outside chance at making a Bowl Game if they win out. Northern Illinois has always been good on the road and they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS loss so they've proven they can bounce back from bad games. Toledo on the other hand is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a straight up win and the Road Team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings of this series. I'm going with another really strange MAC Conference game tonight. If you watched the two games last night there were no more than 100 people in the stands at each one with the cold blistering weather. Toledo won't be any different. Northern Illinois either wins or losses by 1-2 points. For sure! It's #MACAction

Trend of the Game: Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their last four games off an ATS loss.


Northern Illinois 27, Toledo 24






more to come...

 

[Kraft]

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Wednesday, November 13




Northern Illinois +2.5 (10 Units)

The Northern Illinois Huskies were not predicted to be a top team in the MAC West Division when the season started but they were picked as a team that could really make some "noise" when the tough got going. Well tonight is their chance to do that. Not just to ruin the party for Toledo in the West, because hope is very bleak anyways, but to make a Bowl Game. With Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan left on the schedule at home, things are not impossible for Thomas Hammock and his guys. The first year coach has had some ups and downs in his first season coaching FBS football and if you can forget about last week's 48-10 loss at Central Michigan, you will see that the Huskies have played well at times this year going to Utah and losing by only 18 (spread cover), going to Vanderbilt and losing by only 6 and then going to Ohio and beating the Bobcats 39-36. They also went to MAC East leading Miami-Ohio and lost by 3. So this is a competitive team, aside from last week and this is good bounce back spot for them. The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points per game their last three games and although it has come on only 4.6 yards per play, they get to play a Toledo defense that has been atrocious. Really atrocious. The Rockets have allowed 39.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 488 total yards of offense on 7.3 yards per play. They've been run on for 238.3 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry in those games and the Northern Illinois running game has actually been better the last three games than it has been all season averaging 137.7 rushing yards per game. NIU QB Marcus Childers, who barely played in the blowout loss last week as they went with Cal transfer Ross Bowers (3 interceptions in that game), has been good this season and the Huskies would be wise to go with him again here despite the early struggles last week. He has a QB Rating of 147.7 on the season and has thrown 4 TD passes to 0 interceptions and has rushed for 2 touchdowns (ran for 6 last year). The last three quarterbacks to play against this Toledo defense have an average QB Rating of 176.0 so I don't know how the Rockets are going to stop this NIU offense.

The lesson was learned and it was learned the hard way last week. I have been warning bettors for years to stay away from the Toledo Rockets in all sports and specifically in mid-week MAC Conference games because of the years the scandals are numerous and we all bit on it last week against Kent State. Including me. Toledo was favored by 7 then 6 then 5 then 4 then 3 by gametime in that game and guess what? They ended up winning by 2 points. I mean how is that not a complete joke? Sure they are still alive in the MAC West and have the tiebreaker with Western Michigan (5 conference wins) because they beat them back on October 5 but Northern Illinois has always been a problem for Toledo and they are only 2-7 versus these guys since the 2010 season. Not good. The real question and nobody seems to know this is who is going to play quarterback for the Rockets in this game? Starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is still hurt and his replacement Carter Bradley is also hurt. That leaves QB Eli Peters who is an Illinois transfer and looked good at times last week but also looked awful at times last week. Despite allowing 48 points against Centreal Michigan last week this Northern Illinois defense is actually not that bad. Sure they have allowed 25 points per game in their last three games on 6.0 yards per play but they should be able to slow down a Toledo run game that is averaging 267.3 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. In the air, the QB play has just not been good enough for me to ever back Toledo again until their starter is back in form. The Rockets QB's have a QB Rating of only 108.8 the last three games, not good at all in the MAC Conference and NIU's defense has allowed the last three QB's they have faced a QB Rating of 127.4. Meh. Nowhere near as bad as the Toledo defense that's for sure. Also consider that Toledo has fumbled the ball 7 times in their last three games and lost 5 of those fumbles and they usually find a way to beat themselves. I don't trust them.

If you were no Toledo minus whatever (between 3 and 7) last week, there is zero chance you are going in on that again this week knowing their history in games like this. Northern Illinois is not a bad football team and they're offense can score. The Rockets ALWAYS find a way to screw bettors like they did last week. Now with 76% of the betting tickets on Toledo, I feel ever better going with the Huskies and the points. Don't forget NIU has an outside chance at making a Bowl Game if they win out. Northern Illinois has always been good on the road and they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS loss so they've proven they can bounce back from bad games. Toledo on the other hand is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a straight up win and the Road Team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings of this series. I'm going with another really strange MAC Conference game tonight. If you watched the two games last night there were no more than 100 people in the stands at each one with the cold blistering weather. Toledo won't be any different. Northern Illinois either wins or losses by 1-2 points. For sure! It's #MACAction

Trend of the Game: Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their last four games off an ATS loss.


Northern Illinois 27, Toledo 24






more to come...

Thanks for the winner Flava! #AsianMassageTime
-Robert

 

[MistaFlava]

Thanks for the winner Flava! #AsianMassageTime
-Robert

Haha do you live in Markham, Ontario by any chance?

 

[beeks19]

I live in North York

 

[MistaFlava]

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Friday, November 15



Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +6.5 (10 Units)

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs know they are in for one heck of a fight tonight in what should be an emotional night given the tragic circumstance surrounding the 49 year anniversary of the Marshall plane crash. Having said that the Bulldogs come in here on a mission. They sit in first place in the CUSA West Conference standings and have the tiebreaker over second place Southern Miss. I mean this is an 8-1 team we are talking about and they are an underdog of almost a touchdown. Crazy. Skip Holts has been here 7 years now and done absolutely everything...except win a CUSA Conference Title. He has the roster to do it. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 46.3 points per game in their last three games on 502.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.7 yards per play. Marshall's defense has been very good all season and in their last three games have allowed 20.3 points per game and only 5.4 yards per play which is good but not great. QB J'Mar Smith has been fantastic completing this season for the Bulldogs but he has been suspended for this game which explains the line. His backup QB Aaron Allen has completed 88.9% of his passes this season for 12.7 yards per pass attempt, 1 Touchdown Pass, 1 Interception and a QB Rating of 209.7. Not bad. He's a really accurate passer from what I have seen. This is a big play offense that can also run for 189 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry their last three games. Marshall's defense has 14 sacks in their last three games to go with 3 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. That's good but not good enough. LT's offensive line is very solid and have allowed 6 QB sacks over their last three games. If this is a defensive battle which it could very well be, the Bulldogs still have the weapons for big plays.

The Marshall Thundering Herd come into this game on a four game win streak and currently sit in 2nd Place in the CUSA East standings but only one game back of Middle Tennessee who they beat in early October. Having said that, this team is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and not once this year have they covered the spread in two straight games. They are coming off a 20-7 road win at Rice which covered the -11.5 point road favorite spread so now I'm expecting a bit of a letdown. So far this year Marshall is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite so it's a bit shocking to see so many people on them even with LT's starting QB out. I'm not going to call the Louisiana Tech defense tremendous because they do give up some yards and have allowed 6.0 yards per play their last three games but they are a "bend but don't break" style defense and that should apply tonight as well. In their last three games they have allowed only 22.7 points per game and only 377 total yards of offense. That defense is going to have to show up tonight against a Marshall offense averaging 6.3 yards per play but scoring only 27.3 points per game in their last three. That's almost 20 points less than Louisiana Tech's offense and even without their 2 star players are still going to be efficient. The Bulldogs defense has done an incredible job forcing turnovers and 11 turnovers (6 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries) in their last three games. Marshall will find it hard to run the ball against this group and in the passing game the Bulldogs will find a way to force turnovers (Marshall has turned the ball over only 1 time their last three games so they are due). I'm going with LT's defense to carry them tonight.

The implications in the CUSA Conference race for both teams tonight are immense. Louisiana Tech is ahead of Southern Miss right now by one game and they have the tiebreaker so a loss would not be devastating but anything can happen in this Conference. Marshall right now trail only Florida Atlantic in the East but own the tiebreaker against them so they are in the driver's seat. The last time these two programs met was in 2014 and it was for the CUSA Conference Championship and Marshall won that 26-23. Expect another close game. Louisiana Tech comes into this game 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games under Skip Holtz and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a winning team when playing on the road. MARSHALL IS 2-12 ATS IN THEIR LAST 14 HOME GAMES and have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 21 games when coming off a spread cover the previous game. That's insane. Even without their star QB and star WR (both suspended), Louisiana Tech is fine and Skip Holtz has a great foundation here. They win this game.

Trend of the Game: Marshall is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Home Games.


Louisiana Tech 26, Marshall 19





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Fresno State Bulldogs +1 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEKNIGHTS***

The Fresno State Bulldogs are having a disappointing season to say the least with only 2 wins in Conference play and 4 wins overall on the season. The Bulldogs were supposed to be back in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where the beat Boise State in 2018 but again things have just not gone their way. Having said that, the race is not over because San Diego State lead the Division with 4 wins. If the Bulldogs win tonight they are one game back with the tiebreaker in hand and two conference games to go. This is doable. They also need 2 wins to make a Bowl Game (if the Conference Championship thing doesn't work out) so they are playing some desperate football. Don't forget Fresno State went to Hawaii a few weeks ago and beat the Warriors as a +2.5 point underdog in that game. They come into this game with a high flying offense that averages 35.7 points per game on 440.3 yards per game in their last three games. These are not bogus numbers and the proof is in the 6.9 yards per play they average in those games. San Diego State's defense is ALWAYS tough and they have allowed only 17 points per game in their last three games on only 291.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. The Bulldogs running game is on fire and averages 211.3 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry their last three games to SDST's defense has allowed only 2.7 yards per carry in their last three. This is not where the game will be won. In the air you can throw on San Diego State. The last three quarterbacks who played against them had an average QB Rating of 126.3 and averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Fresno State averages 8.1 yards per pass attempt and completed 63.5% of their passes the last three games. The Aztecs defense relies heavily on the pass rush (6 sacks in last three) but the Bulldogs offensive line is the best in the Mountain West and they will provide all the protecting Jorge Reyna needs tonight to make big plays. Don't underestimate the defending champions.

The San Diego State Aztecs look like the play on paper because they lead the Mountain West West Division but...there is a lot of pressure on this team right now. If they lose this game the defending Conference Champions will be breathing down their necks and pretty much holding the tiebreaker. With games at Hawaii and BYU things just don't get easier for this team despite having already clinched a Bowl Game spot for the 2019 Bowl Game season with 7 wins on the season. Did anyone watch this team last week? They could have sealed the Division with a win over Nevada at home as a -17 point home favorite and lost 17-13. The pressure is on big time now. Fresno State's defense has been one of the big problems for them this season and they have allowed 6.7 yards per play their last three games and 526.7 total yards of offense in those games on 38.7 points per game but San Diego State is struggling on offense. Only 13 points against Nevada last week? Only 20 points at UNLV? They come into this game averaging only 20 points per game their last three games on 4.9 yards per play. That makes it tough to keep up with Fresno State if the Bulldogs go up early. The quarterback play has been an issue all season with QB Ryan Agnew completing only 57.7% of his passes the last three games for only 156.3 passing yards per game and only 6.0 yards per pass attempt with a QB Rating of 107.3 in those games. He has thrown only 1 Touchdown pass since October 12 to go along with his 2 interceptions. After playing against Colorado State, Utah State and Hawaii, this is going to be one heck of a drop down in class for Fresno State's defense who are way better than the stats show. San Diego State is 114th in the Nation in total yards offense and 112th in scoring offense. Hawaii was 16th, Utah State was 73rd and Colorado State was 52nd. The Bulldogs D has the edge.

There is nothing more dangerous than a desperate football team, let alone a desperate defending Champion and the Fresno State Bulldogs are just that. The defending Mountain West Conference champs are done in the Conference if they lose this game. Done. So this is their game of the year. The pressure is almost all on San Diego State who currently lead the West Division with 4 wins. I remember from last season how good Fresno State was in midweek games and looking at their record they are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday Night Games. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a straight up loss. SAN DIEGO STATE IS 1-8 ATS IN THEIR LAST NINE HOME GAMES and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a losing record on the season (Fresno is 4-5). Fresno State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and I'm going with them to win this game and put themselves in a position to head right back to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Big play for me.

Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 Road Games.


Fresno State 27, San Diego State 17






more to come..

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......haere's to a solid and profitable weekend buddy......on Fresno with you........indy

 

[lakrfan2000]

Totally with you on the Bulldogs!! Thanks for the great write-up!!

 

[TheProcess]

Always enjoy reading your thoughts on the games

 

[Kysps2020]

Good luck

 

[MistaFlava]

Rough man. Can't win on weekday games. Hoping to replicate last Saturday tomorrow. Picks in a few...congrats to all those won tonight. Marshall and San Diego State were a combined 3-21 ATS in their last 24 home games. Crazy.

 

[MistaFlava]

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Saturday, November 16




Navy Midshipmen +7.5 (10 Units)

The Navy Midshipmen are coming off a 3-10 season last year, the worst in the Ken Niumatalolo era, but they have bounced back in a big way in 2019 and 7-1 SU on the season with an impressive 6-2 ATS record. The Midshipmen have been outyarded only once in their 8 games this season and that was by a mere 23 yards at Tulane a few weeks ago and they still found a way to win 41-38. Navy comes into this game averaging a Nation high 8.2 yards per play in their last three games and they have done that on 44 points per game and 495 total yards of offense. They usually have a couple of plays in the tank saved up for Notre Dame when they come to South Bend. Those last three games have seen them run for another Nation leading 409.7 yards per game on 7.5 yards per carry in those games. Sheesh! Notre Dame has NOT been good against the run and in their last three games have allowed 166.3 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. Throwing the ball against this Notre Dame defense is next to impossible but the Midshipmen average only 6 throwing plays per game their last three games and those plays have gone for 14.2 yards per pass attempt. For a team that averages 53.7 running plays per game their last three games, you have to be impressed with the fact that Navy has lost only 1 fumble total along the way. The running game will be too much for this Notre Dame defense to handle. They always have problems with it when it's rolling.

I find it ironic that Navy have outyarded all but one of their opponents this season and the only two games Notre Dame lost this season were the games they outyarded in against Georgia and against Michigan. That makes this even more interesting because Navy thinks they can win the yardage battle. Could this be loss #3 in what is now a lost season for Brian Kelly and his guys? They are coming off a blowout win at Duke last week and I was on the Blue Devils in that game but I can already tell you how much better I feel being on Navy for this. The last two home games Notre Dame played were against USC and Virginia Tech and they won those by a combined 4 points. No matter what anyone says the offense is still not running well for Notre Dame and despite the 24.3 points per game their last three games, which is not a lot to begin with, they have been averaging only 4.9 yards per play in those games and are having trouble at both ends of the field. The passing game has been bad. QB Ian Book is completing only 50% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 115.3 in his last three games. He has thrown 4 interceptions in those games and the team has lost 3 fumbles. How about Navy's defense with their 12 sacks in the last three games to go along with their 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. They make plays and on the ground have allowed only 3.8 yards per carry their last three games. Those opponents are also completing only 54.8% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Niumatalolo said the defense was good before the season started and I'm starting to believe him.

All you need to know here is that four of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less. Last year was an exception because Navy was rebuilding and were only 3-10 on the year. Safe to say they've turned things around drastically.I read quite a bit about this game during the week and can tell you that the books in Vegas are terrified of the action on Navy and predict Navy will get tons of action come game time. This is why they lowered the line so bettors would take the bait and put some counter money on Notre Dame. It seems to be working. Navy is a crazy 11-2 ATS in their last 13 visits to South Bend (Notre Dame) and the Road Team has covered the spread in 19 of the last 24 meetings. The Middies are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games dating back to last season and they are now on a streak of four straight covers in November games. Notre Dame have covered only 6 of their last 23 November games and I'm going with Navy to pull off the big upset and send Notre Dame off with their 3rd loss of the season. It's been coming. They barely beat USC and Virginia Tech here.

Trend of the Game: Navy is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings at Notre Dame.


Navy 24, Notre Dame 21






more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...





Central Michigan Chippewas +2 (10 Units)

The Central Michigan Chippewas were picked to finish dead last in the MAC West Division before the season started. I'm not making that up. Pick up all the magazines and see for yourself. Well with two games remaining in the season they can move into a tie for 1st place with Western Michigan which would then bring it all down to both teams final game of the season with the Broncos holding the tiebreakers if it gets there. Make no mistake about it, Jim Mcelwain and his group have a shot and this is a big game for them coming off that massive 48-10 home win over Northern Illinois. The last time Central Michigan was here they won 56-9 in 2017. The Chippewas come into this game averaging 35.3 points per game their last three games on 504.3 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play in those games. Ball State's defense = not good. The Cardinals have allowed 27.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 420.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. RB Johnathan Ward has been a beast this year rushing for 863 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6.8 yards per carry and has 11 total touchdowns on the season. Ball State is allowing 278.7 rushing yards per game their last three games on 5.7 yards per carry. Ward should have a monster game. Throwing the ball against this secondary is not easy and they've been one of the better ones in the MAC Conference but Central Michigan is a run first offense and when they throw they average 8.6 yards per pass attempt their last three games.

The Ball State Cardinals were also picked near the bottom of the MAC West Division prior to the start of the season (they were the bottom two with Central Michigan) and although it's been a decent season the Cardinals will NOT be playing for the MAC Conference Championship this season and they will need to win two more games to qualify for a Bowl Game at the end of the season. Mike Neu and his guys are only 1-2 coming out of a bye week in his 4 year tenure as Head Coach of this program. Statistically the Ball State offense could be considered better than Central Michigan's as they come into this game averaging 7.3 yards per play in their last three games and averaging 34.7 points per game and 448 total yards of offense in those games. They too have a tremendous run game with RBs Caleb Huntley and Walter Fletcher who have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns and 293.7 rushing yards per game on 7.0 yards per carry the last three games. The difference in this one? The Chippewas have a defense. An all around defense that has allowed their last three opponents only 4.8 yards per play and allowed only 132.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. There is no balance in the Ball State offense. They are a running offense (42 run plays to 19.7 pass plays last three games) and that's a problem. Even in the air this secondary has been great and opponents have completed only 52.9% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Chipps have 7 interceptions in those games. They are the better defense.

Some Saturday afternoon #MACAction. It doesn't get any better than this. The two teams picked to finish dead last in the Division are playing for a possible spot in the MAC Championship Game in a few weeks time and playing for a potential spot in a Bowl Game this Bowl Season. Incredible how this conference works. The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and the UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Central Michigan is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 visits to Ball State and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they scored 40+ points the game before. This team does not let up. Ball State have covered the spread in only 11 of their last 35 Home Games and the difference for me in this game will be defense. Central Michigan have playmakers and they will go out and win this game to tie the MAC West Division standings with one week to go.

Trend of the Game: Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 40+ points in their previous game.


Central Michigan 31, Ball State 17





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Houston Cougars +10.5 (10 Units)

The Memphis Tigers were one of my big plays of the week when they played SMU at home the last time we saw them with College GameDay in town for the first time ever. The letdown has to be pretty significant coming out of a bye week. Yes this team is focused on somehow getting into a New Year's 6 Bowl Game and yes they want to win the AAC Conference Championship but they simply can't look past this Houston team. Memphis went to Tulsa a few weeks ago and almost lost (42-41 win). They also went to Temple and lost 30-28. Those are two extremely tight conference road games and Houston won't make it any easier on them in this one. I know the win over SMU was big but the Tigers were still outyarded and have been two games in a row now. It's not a secret that Houston's defense is not very good although they have made strides since last season. What's interesting is that the Cougars defense has played better than the Memphis defense overall the last three games and that's a problem. We all know Memphis can score and can score in bunches averaging 7.6 yards per play their last three games on 47.7 points per game but the Cougs have kept games close because their D has made some key stops. In their home games this season Houston allowed only 108 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry and opponents have completed only 57.4% of their passes against them for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. They have a decent pass rush and guys who can make plays on the ball. Memphis will score but I'm telling you right now Houston is making some stops in this game. They are healed up and two weeks more experienced then when we last saw them and their D at home has rather impressive against the run.

The Houston Cougars have been through a roller coaster and back this season with some of their top players choosing to Red Shirt after the shock loss to Tulane in Week 5 of the regular season and had it not been for that there is still a good chance the Cougars would be contending for an AAC Conference Championship. Right now they don't stand a chance but they can certainly ruin the party for Memphis or at least hamper it as the Tigers sit two games back of SMU with the tiebreaker in hand. Houston so far this season at home versus conference opponents have competed. Sure they lost to Cincinnati by 15 but they outyarded the Bearcats by 30 yards in that game. They also took SMU right to the brink on a Thursday Night almost knocking off the unbeaten (at the time) Mustangs while outyarding them by an impressive 125 total yards. It's time for those close games and to payoff. The Cougs offense obviously took a hit when their star QB redshirted but QB Clayton Tune has done a fine job despite his struggles in the passing game. Mainly the issue has been protection and he has been sacked 15 times in the last three games but he is averaging 254.7 passing yards per in his last three games and has a QB Rating of 142.6 in those games. Memphis allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt in the air their last three games and they have allowed 317.3 passing yards per game. Running the ball effectively has been a struggle for Houston but today they face a Memphis run defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry in their last three. Dana Holgersen is an offensive minded guy and with the bye week in hand expect some new tweaks to this offense. Houston has to win all three remaining games to make a Bowl Game which would be a great story.

This is never a place where Memphis has ever come and just had their way. They scored 42 the last time here in 2017 but also allowed 38 in that game. Prior to that they had not won a game in Houston since 2005 and like I said it's always been a struggle playing here. It's hard to argue against betting on a team like Memphis because they are explosive and they looked so good against SMU but they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they held an opponent to less than 100 rushing yards (SMU). Houston won't be held back. The UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and both teams have something on the line in this one. Two potent offenses going at it in this one should be fun. I'm calling for Houston to finally win that elusive game as a home underdog (should have beat both Cincinnati and SMU) and I believe they catch Memphis just a the right time.

Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.


Houston 37, Memphis 33





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

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Wyoming Cowboys +4.5 (10 Units)

The Wyoming Cowboys are coming off an impressive game at Boise State last week where everything in the Conference was on the line. Had they pulled the upset win over the Broncos they would now sit in a three way tie at the top of the Mountain West Mountain Division standings. Instead they lost but they were impressive as a +16.5 point road underdog in a 20-17 loss. The fun is not over. If they can win out in the conference and somehow Boise State loses three games then you never know but it's extremely unlikely. I'm hoping the letdown is not too big for this Cowboys team who have already clinched a Bowl Game spot. They come into this game averaging only 23.7 points per game their last three games on 369 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. Nothing flashy, nothing big. Just tons of ball control and moving of the sticks. That might change in this game. Utah State's defense has been atrocious allowing 36 points per game their last three games and allowing 510 total yards of offense per game on 7.1 yards per play. Wyoming runs 47.7 running plays per game in their last three and average 213.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. That's a problem for this Utah State defense allowing 275 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry in their last three. The Cowboys don't throw too much but when they do they average 8.2 yards per pass attempt their last three games and they face an Aggies defense that has allowed 11.9 yards per pass attempt the last three games while allowing those opponents to complete 69.5% of their passes. Yikes! It's too bad QB Sean Chambers is out for the season for the second year in a row because he made his college debut against Utah State last season and shred them to pieces with his running and throwing ability. In comes QB Tyler Vander Waal who is not an effective runner but who has tons of experience calling a game. In a slug fest I like their situation even without Chambers.

The Utah State Aggies have been on a roller coaster (aren't all college teams for the most part?) this entire season. Their hopes of getting into the Mountain West Championship Game are very slim at this point with Boise State holding a two game lead with New Mexico on deck this weekend but hey the Aggies still need a win to clinch a Bowl Game spot for 2019. They do have New Mexico left on their schedule to end the season and I think a lot of programs are holding that card in their back pockets. Utah State won last week at Fresno State but just barely beating the Bulldogs 37-35 as a road underdog but their previous two games they were outyarded by a combined 462 total yards and they had dropped four of their last five spreads coming into the Fresno State game. Hard to believe they've completely turned the corner on their season. Utah State's offense is averaging only 19.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 391.3 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play. Not bad. However, Wyoming has one of the best defenses in the Conference. They were projected to allow 26 points per game prior to the season but come in allowing only 17.9 with three games to go. They have allowed only 5.0 yards per play in their last three games and Utah State's offense is one dimensional. They can only throw the ball. The running game has been a non factor all season and they average only 92.7 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry their last three games. In the air is where all their success comes and QB Jordan Love has a QB Rating of 140.1 in his last three games but the Cowboys defense has 8 sacks in their last three games to go along with the 5 turnovers they have forced and opponents have a QB Rating of only 113.7 in those games. I think Wyoming continues the trend of strong defense tonight.

So there is not much left to play for on either side in this game with the Conference almost out of complete reach and Bowl Games all but locked up for the season so what does that usually produce? I say somewhat of a low scoring game although we could see the Wyoming offense open up and go off. Their last time here was with QB Josh Allen and they won as a +2 point road underdog. Wyoming comes into this game with an impressive 5-1 ATS record in their last six road games and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall. Utah State are actually a very good home team but come into this game only 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win. They are also only 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and the Cowboys are coming to town looking for a fight. This is a clash of good offense versus good defense and bad offense versus bad defense. Should be interesting. I think Wyoming comes to town and takes this game. They've been good all season.

Trend of the Game: Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.


Wyoming 27, Utah State 19





more to come...

 

[lakrfan2000]

Hey Flav, that Fresno State pick was solid. QB Jorge Reyna just couldn't deliver on his plan to perform well in a key game. Let's have another great Saturday! GL2U!

 

[BigCat]

MF BOL today

 

[MistaFlava]

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Rice Owls +14.5 (10 Units)

The Rice Owls have competed this year it just hasn't turned into wins as they come into this game 0-9 on the season with fading hopes that they can match last year's 2 wins. This was expected by everyone coming in and they were picked dead last in the CUSA Conference West Division. The way I see it this team is playing with house money now coming out of their BYE Week which was much needed and they should go back to being competitive. They went 3-1-1 ATS to open the season despite losing all those games and then the wheels kind of came falling off although if you look at their Conference games this season they have lost them by 3, 15, 4, 14 and 13 points so only once was a more than two touchdown spread beaten had the line been the same as this game. The main issue for Rice has been offense but they've been a lot better away from home where they average 18 points per game and 5.1 yards per play as opposed to only 4.1 yards per play in their three games prior to the bye week. Middle Tennessee is allowing 28 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 456.8 total yards of offense per home game this season on 6.2 yards per play. Rice has actually been effective running the ball away from home this year averaging 153.7 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry in road games so there is hope for this offense against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 181.3 rushing yards per home game on 4.6 yards per carry. In their last game before the bye the Owls went with true frosh QB Jovoni Johnson over their Senior Tom Stewart. Not sure who is playing in this one but they'll have their chances against a defense allowing home opponents to complete 64.7% of their passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt with an average QB Rating of 147.3. I will say this again about Rice. Avoid the fumbles and you can win the game.

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders had high expectations coming into the 2019 season. They knew they had a tough schedule to start the season as they had to face Michigan, Duke and Iowa (lost all three) but they expected to make noise in conference play and somehow that has not happened. Right now they sit second last in the CUSA East Standings with no chance of making the Championship Game having gone 2-3 in Conference play and they will need to win their final three games of the season to even make it to a Bowl Game. Unexpected from a Rick Stockstill coached team and I wonder how motivated they will be in this game against a "house money" Rice team. The Blue Raiders have managed to outyard only 3 of their opponents this season. They come into this game averaging 33.3 points per game on 432 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play in their last three games but the Rice defense has been surprisingly good this season had it not been for an inept offense who turn the ball over more than anyone in the Country. The Owls have allowed only 23.7 points per game their last three games and allowed 372.7 total yards of offense (that's 49.6 less per game than Middle Tennessee's defense) and 5.8 yards per play (same as MTSU defense). We all know the Blue Raiders can pound the ball on the ground but Rice has been tough against the run and allowed only 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games. I talked about the issues Rice has a at quarterback what about Middle Tennessee? In their last three games their QBs have completed only 53.2% of their passes for 140 passing yards per game and only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Rice has the #59 ranked run defense in the Nation which is good for a CUSA team so Middle Tennessee will be forced to throw a lot and that's not a good thing.

This is the first time ever these two teams meet so there isn't much tape to review from previous matchups. Like I mentioned earlier Rice played for the first month and a half of the season but the started to fade a little bit. They got their BYE Week now and should come out fresher than Middle Tennessee who are facing a massive mountain to climb needing to win all three remaining games to make it to a Bowl (the pre-season expectation for these guys). Rice have failed to cover in four straight versus CUSA opponents but they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and have been worth a look when playing away from home. Both teams could be a bit rusty coming off the bye week but this game should go down to the wire and Rice's defense, like they have done all season, will keep them competitive enough for the offense to score points against the #121 ranked total yards defense of Middle Tennessee. Owls pull the upset!

Trend of the Game: Rice is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they score less than 20 points.


Rice 26, Middle Tennessee 25






more to come...