MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 0-2 ATS (-16.50 Units)
My opening night did not go as planned but that's alright. Brought things back to some old school capping for the weekend, while trying to stay away from the big games just because I am going to watch them. Here is what I like for this weekend and now it's time bring homw the cash.
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Friday, August 29
Temple Owls -7 (10 Units)
The Temple Owls are really tough to bet on the way they have played the last few seasons but I am proud to announce that this is my very first wager ever on this team and I don't think I'll be disappointed. I always said to myself I wouldn't waste my money on these guys but I really like what I have seen the last half year and I actually believe this team is very near the level they need to be to contend and recruit properly. The Owls are coming off a decent 4-8 season that saw them pull off wins over Kent State, Northern Illinois, Miami Ohio and Akron which is a very good start if they are going to make a run at the Conference Title in a few years. The key now for this team is to win their non-conference games like this one and something tells me Al Golden has put this in their heads and has put the high emphasis on winning this game big. For those who did you research, although Army won last year's game 37-21, Temple was clearly the better team, winning the First Down battle 25-14 and outyarding the Black Knights by almost 175 yards. Temple has a whopping 22 starters back (11 on both sides of the ball) which has to be the most in the NCAA this season. QB Adam DiMichele is ready for a breakout season even though he is a Senior and I expect the big man to shred apart this pathetic Army defense that brings back only 4 starters on defense and that allowed opponents to score 30.3 points per game last season. If Temple plays even a bit the way they played last season against this Army, they are going to win via the blowout and this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. I love what Al Golden has done around here and now it's time to show it on the field.
The Army Black Knights are one of the most pathetic teams in College Football year in and year out and I am telling you right now that 2008 should be no different whatsoever. This is a team that consistently has problems finding the necessary talent to compete in Division I-A football and there is no reason to believe things will change this time around. Army has only 8 returning starters from a 2007 season that saw them go 3-9 SU with one of those wins coming via luck against this very Temple team as Army was clearly outplayed but somehow found a way to win. Well the same is not happening this season as the Black Knights are still not familiar with Sam Brock's system and the fact that their defense is going to struggle so badly almost ensures that the offense is going to lack continuity in this game. Just to give you an indication of how bad this team is both away and at home, the Black Knights are 5-24 since the 2000 season when playing at home against a I-A opponent and they are only 2-9 SU in their last 11 home openers so regardless how many cadets show up in West Point for this game, this football team is going nowhere fast. Temple's defense is not exactly stout and they did allow 26.3 points per game last season but that was a vast improvement on the 40+ points per game they allowed the two seasons before that and they return a whopping 11 starters in this game. I think it's safe to say that Army is going to struggle to do anything in this game and I am calling for them to get blownout by a program that is hungry for both revenge and for bragging rights of improvement. Army is just not good enough to come close in this game and that just sounds weird considering the opponent is Temple.
This all comes down to revenge for last year's loss. Not only is Temple way more experienced than they were just one season ago but they still have that loss to Army on their minds and I don't see them letting up once they grab the lead in this game. Everyone is looking at the SMU-Rice matchup tonight because it's June Jones' debut with SMU but I think the real value sits in this game. As discussed earlier, this is all about the meeting between these two teams last season because Temple should have won that game and there is no way they forgot the game that prevented them from having a five win season when nobody gave them a shot at two wins. I think Temple is going to fire on all cylinders in this game and although they will make mistakes, Army is too young and incompetent to make something out of it. Temple has really done well against (at the time) fellow INDEPENDENT opponents while Army has been horrendous the last few seasons against MAC Conference opponents and none of that is changing tonight. Bet your money on Temple and they won't disappoint.
Trend of the Game: Temple is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus INDEPENDENT teams.
Temple 34, Army 10
Saturday, August 30
Wisconsin Badgers -27 (5 Units)
The Akron Zips are a team I have given the benefit of the doubt to on many occasions the last few seasons when it comes to College Football betting but that run is over. I was on this team a few times last season and I don't remember them ever cashing in one of my wagers. Having said that, it is time to go the other way and it is time to fade a team I believe is going to have a very rough season playing in the MAC Conference against teams with much better talent levels. Akron is coming off a 4-8 season in 2007 and even though they do bring back 13 starters this season (respectable amount), I just don't think they can improve. Looking back on last season this is the same Akron team that was blownout by 34 points at UConn and the same Akron team that went 2-4-1 ATS as an away underdog last season. The Zips do some have some experienced starters coming back but they are 0-9 SU in their last nine 'true' road opening games having lost those games by 27.0 points per game (thanks Phil Steele Magazine). Akron has not beaten a BIG 10 team since 1894 and there are not about to change that. Wisconsin's defense is returning a whopping 9 starters on defense this season and that will only improve the 23.2 points per game they allowed last season. I expect this defense to be one of the best in the BIG TEN and I think it's safe to say that they are going to have a field day against this very inept Akron offense. We will probably see the good ole Wisconsin defense of a few years back when they allowed only 12.1 points per game. Camp Randall is a very tough place to play and the Badgers rarely miss spread covers at home against non-conference opponents. I think Akron is going to have a bit of success passing the ball but WR Jabari Arthur is gone and he was the backbone of this offense that often, even with him in the lineup, completely useless. I actually see a shutout or close to it in this game.
The Wisconsin Badger not only enter the season with the advantage of having a third year coach in Bret Bielema but they have the pleasure of starting their campaign against a much weaker non-conference opponent which is excatly what they need to boost their confidence before starting Conference play on September 27. The Badgers are coming off a very decent 9-4 SU season in 2007 where they suffered a tough 21-17 loss to Tennesssee in the Outback Bowl. This is a team that has nothing but good things coming their way as they return a whopping 17 starters this season and have the pleasure of already knowing Bielema's system. The only concern coming into this game is the offense because they are going to have a first time starter in this system but Wisconsin has always been about their running game and if they can get outstanding RB PJ Hill going early in this game, there won't be any need to move the ball around in the air. As a matter of fact the running game here will probably open things up for whoever the QB is in this game to air the ball out and find the best TE in the Country in Travis Beckum. This offense is most definitely going to score 30+ points per game this season and I have no doubt in my mind that they are going to pick apart an Akron defense that returns only five starters after a whopping 29.2 points per game last season. This is a very bad spot for the Akron defense because Wisconsin has so many weapons and they are probably going to fire on all cylinders in this game. I am calling for Wisconsin to have a huge first half and it won't be long before they score early in the second half and put the spread way out of reach. This is a total mismatch and Camp Randall just tops things off.
I am not a huge fan of betting on BCS Conference teams to win via blowout on such large spreads but every single season if you look at Week 1 you have a bunch of TOP 25 teams blowing out their opponents by 50+ points and that is one and only reason I am betting on so many large spreads this week. If you are going to back heavy favorites now is the right time to do it as the oddsmakers are a bit off with their numbers and some teams are using the first few weeks of non-conference action to tuneup for Conference play in a few weeks. Akron is actually one of those teams and I am telling you right now that they are nowhere near prepared for this game and for what Wisconsin has to bring. You have a battle between one team (Akron) who has been horrendous as a road ATS team the last few seasons and (Wiscons) who has always been a good team to bet on in home games. Camp Randall should be rocking as always for this game. Unlike the game where Akron visisted Columbus and got away with an ATS win last season, the faithful of Camp Randall are not as nice and this place has proven to be a great home advantage ATS wise over the last few seasons. I think Wisconsin comes out firing on all cylinders in this game. WISKY!
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games at Camp Randall.
Wisconsin 47, Akron 3
Southern California Trojans -19 (5 Units)
The Southern California Trojans have sorta fallen off the college football map since the big Leinart-VC Title Game three years ago and they have not really been involved in big time BCS Title Game talks since (well they have but nothing legit enough to last a full season). The Trojans are coming off a very good but somewhat disappointing 11-2 SU season in 2007 where they capped things off with a 49-17 win in the Rose Bowl as a -14 point favorite. That was the win that will probably catapult this team to big things this season and although many have concerns about travelling out East to begin the season, the matchup is not tough enough to hamper their efforts and I don't think USC is going to have any problems running away with this game. The big game for the Trojans is in two weeks when they host Ohio State so there is the danger that they are looking ahead to that game but my response to that is that Bill Carroll knows better than to let him team lose focus and this game is going to be used to work on different aspects of their game before the Buckeyes come to town. USC is now 7-0 SU in their last seven season opening games and they have won those games by an average of 25.0 points per game which makes me think that trend is going to follow suit in this game. The Trojans bring back only four starters on offense this season which is a concern but the talent pool is so deep on this team and QB Mark Sanchez has been around for quite sometime and he is ready to make an impact. The receiving and RB corps are super deep on this team and although Virginia's defense is pretty damn good, don't count on them to stop the Trojans for more than a few drives. Virginia allowed only 19.7 points per game last season but a) they play in the ACC and b) they returned 10 starters last season compared to only 5 this season. So you can bet your bottom dollar that with an inexperienced bunch of players on their defensive side, the Cavaliers are going to get whalloped in this game. I think USC is going to use the game to some doubt in the heads of the Buckeyes and that is exactly what should happen. No way this is not a blowout win by the Trojans.
The Virginia Cavaliers are quite possibly the worst team in the entire ACC Conference this season and that is not good considering some experts have the Duke Blue Devils ranked higher than them. Can you really blame those experts? I mean Virginia is coming off a very impressive and surprising 9-4 SU season that saw them go to the Gator Bowl and lose 31-28 to Texas Tech as +6 point underdogs. As good as the future looked for this Virginia team at some point last season, the bottom line remains that the team is bringing back only 11 total starters this season and they have lost the likes of QB Jameel Sewell and WR Tom Santi. Sewell is a big loss for this team because he was directly responsible for 12 passing touchdowns and 4 rushing touchdowns and now the team has to break in a pivot with no gurantees. You have to be impressed with the job Al Groh has done around here as a home underdog going 13-3 ATS since his arrival in 2001 but the USC Trojans are in a completely different league and as I mentioned before these two teams do not matchup well when it comes to speed, size and agility. Virginia is a very good team in Home Openers winning 20 of their last 23 SU but they have not faced an opponent of this quality on opening night in a very long time and like I mentioned before this is a totally different animal. Offensively things are going to be difficult because USC has a ferocious defense that is already out to make a statement and the Trojans return 7 starters on defense from a squad that allowed only 16.0 points per game last season and 15.0 points per game the season before that. So the bottom line here is that if your offense is going to have ineffective moments in a game they are not going to get really far with this defense. As much as this team has been good as home underdogs, the Trojans are a top quality opponent and the Cavaliers are going to have their hands full on both sides of the ball.
The matchup is not ideal and the pickings were slim this week when it came to identifying bad lines but the bottom line in this game is that on one side of things you have a team that is clearly on the re-building stage in Virginia and on the other hand you have a team that cannot afford poor efforts this season as they are going for their first BCS Title Game appearance since the Matt Leinart era ended a few years back. I really like the comment Phil Steele made about this Virginia team. He said that if you change 5-6 plays from games last season that this team would have finished with a 4-9 SU record and not the other way around which makes them slightly overrated coming into the season. The Cavaliers don't have the talent to compete and although Al Groh is very good at getting his guys ready for games being played in Scott Stadium, nothing Virginia does in this game will be enough to pulloff the win. USC is too talented on both sides of the ball and Bill Carroll understands very well what a big win (large margin) means to the progress of the Trojans. I am positive USC is going to make a statement in this game.
Trend of the Game: USC is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
Southern California 38, Virginia 10
UL Monroe Warhawks +26 (3 Units)
The UL Monroe Warhawks pretty much sent shockwaves through the college football world last season when they knocked off the Alabama Crimson Tide. I know upsets like that only come around once in a blue moon but at first glance I thought Auburn is for sure going to come out and blow these clowns out of the water. However I decided to check who was returning for this UL Monroe team and realized that the core of this team is still together. The Warhawks are coming a 6-6 SU season that saw them come close in a lot of games and had it not been for a few bad turn of events in some earlier season games, we would have seen this team in a Bowl Game for the first time ever. Well I am going to go out on a limb and call for them to reach a Bowl Game this season because they have their best ever. UL Monroe has not been good in road openers having lost 14 in a row (they were shutout four times during that span) but I think they can put a little somethign together in this game and scare the Tigers away. This team has 7 starters returning on offense and even though they didn't put huge numbers up on the board last season, QB Kinsmon Lancaster is a playmaker and I think he will have no problems controlling himself against this Auburn defense. The Tigers do have speed and strength up front and they do return 7 starters on defense but I think UL Monroe can put some scores up on the board in this game. If New Mexico State can score 20 points on this defense like they did last season, I have no doubts the Warhawks can get a little something going with their outstanding group of RB's and WR's. I know beating Alabama was huge last season but you have to believe this team has a ton of confidence heading into this game and if that is really the case, they are going to make a serious push to win this game via the big playmaking abilities of Lancaster. You can't forget that this team went into Clemson last season for their first road game as +26 point underdogs and they managed to cover the spread against an offense that is much better than Auburn's so this team has a not only a shot at the cover but an outside shot at the shocker.
The Auburn Tigers once again are being called National Title Contenders heading into this season but how many times have we heard that over the years and how many times have they actually made it there? There is just something about playing in the SEC that doesn't suit the Tigers because they end up winning and losing close games that ultimately cost them in the National Title picture. Auburn comes into the season off a 9-4 SU season that ended with their 23-20 overtime win over the Clemson Tigers as a +2 point underdog in that game. Auburn is 6-0 SU all-time versus UL Monroe and they have won those games by an average of 33.0 points per game but that was when the Warhawks lacked substance on their team and now the Tigers have to face the best UL Monroe team there ever has been. I think Auburn is probably going to struggle to score points in this game because they have to work in a new offensive coordinator in Troy St. Franklin and the quarterback situation is a big question mark right now. Sure they return 9 offensive starters but the QB Situation could be a problem and learning this new system could take some time. QB Kodi Burns is the only quarterback with any kind of in-game experience but he only attempted 26 passes in 2007 and managed to complete only 10 of those passes. UL Monroe brings back 7 starters on defense this season and they allowed a decent 27.7 points per game last season. This is the most starters they have returned on defense since the 2004 season. Auburn is equipped to balance their gameplay on both offense and defense but that will be tough to do in this game because UL Monroe is scrappy and the Tigers can't have scrappy defenses at this point in time becuase they are trying to learn a new system. The weakness in this defense lies in the secondary but again who the heck is going to get those Auburn receivers the ball? The inexperience up front and the lack of system knowledge is going to keep things close enough that UL Monroe is going to be a threat to win the game straight up. Sure Auburn is good but I don't think they are ready.
This is UL Monroe's Bowl Game right here because they know that should it come down to the committee having to choose them at the end of the season, their performance in this game is going to be crucial. What this team did last season does not matter heading into this game because Auburn is much better than Alabama on both sides of the ball and this is a new season. However, if you are going to be bet on a team to win by large double digits, you better make sure they have an offense that is going to fire on all cylinders (which Auburn does not) and you have to make sure you have a team that understands the long term system (which again Auburn will not until a few weeks from now). Looking back on some of Auburn's games last season, they were favored by 20+ points zero times and the year before that they went 1-3 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. Auburn has never been a program that relies on high flying offenses which is why I think they are going to struggle to put this game away and that will probably wear a little thin on their defense who will allow uncharacteristic touchdowns to a UL Monroe team that is hungry for another upset. I know it's Week 1 so I am taking a huge risk here and calling for the upset.
Trend of the Game: UL Monroe is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus SEC opponents.
UL Monroe 21, Auburn 20
Texas Longhorns -23.5 (5 Units)
The Florida Atlantic Owls are once again the favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference Title this season like they did in 2007 and that is because they are very well coached with coach Snells and they have a very good core of players to work with. Much has been said about the smaller Florida schools gaining a lot of recognition when it comes recruiting measures and the Owls are definitely one of those teams that has stepped up their recruiting game the last few seasons. They are coming off a Sun Belt Conference Title off an 8-5 SU season but they have not performed well as road underdogs the last few seasons going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games away dogs which tells me that they are only made to play against conference opponents. This team looked damn impressive in the New Orleans Bowl last season as they beat the Memphis Tigers 44-27 as -3 point favorites but that could also have the counter effect of having this team a tad bit overconfident. They are returning a whopping 18 starters this season but again I do not trust them against bigger name schools. They have now lost three straight road opening games (last three seasons) and they have all been blowout losses by an average of 33 points per game. You all remember cappers calling for this Owls team to beat Oklahoma State last season but that never panned out as the Owls got whalloped 42-6. I expect much of the same in this game as Texas is returning quite a few key members of their defense despite bringing back only 4 starters on the defensive side of things. Having said that, I don't know what the Owls can be effective on offense if their defense is flustered because the pressure will be on to air the ball out and as well as QB Rusty Smith played in some of the big games last season, he made way too many mistakes against the bigger name schools and I think Texas is going to shock some people in this game with their tough defense. I like Florida Atlantic's offense but I don't like them in big games and I think they will be no shows for this big game (much like they have been for the last three seasons in road openers against BCS Schools).
The Texas Longhorns need a good season or this could spell the end of the line for Mac Brown. The Horns are coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons since the departure of Vince Young and the guys here right now are just not getting the job done. So the team is in bad need of someone who can in here and make a big time impact. The problem has never really been an offensive dropoff although this team did average 50.0 points per game when Vince Young was and they won the National Title in 2005. The Longhorns are coming off a 10-3 SU season which was not bad at all but again does not match the standards that this team likes to meet every season. The Horns did however look very impressive in the Holiday Bowl with their 50+ points performance in a rout of the Arizona State Sun Devils. The key to the season will be starting off strong as the Horns failed to do in 2007, narrowly beating an Arkansas State team from the same Sun Belt Conference as this Florida Atlantic. What I do like about this game is that Texas has now won 9 season opening games and they have won those games by a whopping average of 43.0 points per game. If you combined that with the fact that Florida Atlantic struggles to keep up with much bigger and better teams and I think you have blowout written all over this game. Texas is also a very nice 12-0 SU all time versus teams from the Sunbelt Conference as they have won those games by average margin of 26.0 points per game. The offense returns 7 offensive starters and I have a feeling that QB Colt McCoy is going to have a breakout season. Florida Atlantic returns a nice 8 starters on defense this season but they allowed 33.2 points per game last season so teams with effective offenses are going to have a field day against this team and that is exactly what I expect Texas to do in this game. It really doesn't take a rocket science to realize that there are several big weakness in the Owls defense mainly their pass defense which means a healthy Colt McCoy will pick apart this team left and right. I have no doubts in my mind that Texas can blow these guys out.
This is the kind of game the betting public is probably going to be tempted to fade the Longhorns because they are so hit and miss and they have not had a decent ATS season since 2005 when they went a whopping 11-2 ATS that year and Vince Young was still here running the show. Well believe it or not the Longhorns are the kind of team that shows up when doubted and there is no way they are going to lose their home opener to a Sun Belt Conference team and no way they are going to let that kind of team hang for more than one quarter. Florida Atlantic, as mentioned many times, has a really tough time playing against BCS Schools with talent and they are going to struggle to score points against this Texas team. I feel it is necessary to mention that Florida Atlantic has lost their last three road openers versus BCS Schools and those have come by an average of 32.0 points per game. Mac Brown and Colt McCoy both need this game to go well because both are being watched with close eyes and should things not go well this season there is no guarantee that one or both will be back next season. Texas has way too much size and way too much depth not to win this game by at least 30 points.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
Texas 54, Florida Atlantic 13
Kansas Jayhawks -35.5 (5 Units)
The Florida International Panthers are coming yet another horrendous season so I don't know what to expect from this bunch. I have heard from newsletters that they are a much improved team this season but calling a team that went 1-11 SU last season improved is not saying much because all they really need to do is win one more game than last season and that would be like reaching a Bowl Game for this team. The Panthers do return an impressive 18 starters to the mix (9 on offense and 9 on defense) so their conference play is probably going to improve but to have to start the season against a Kansas team that can suffocate you on both sides of the ball is prett much deadly. The Panthers played here last season in Lawrence and got blown out of the water 55-3. I challenge anyone to come up with one or two good reasons why Florida International would make them game this season any close. They won't. We are talking about a team that managed to score only 15.9 points per game last season and that managed only 9.6 points per game the season before that. Sure there are signs of improvement in the spring game but have you seen the Kansas defense? After allowing only 16.4 points per game in 2007, they return a BIG 12 high 9 starters on defense which means that opponents are going to struggle to score more than 10 points per game against this team. Joe Mortensen and Justin Thornton are the leaders on this defense and if you had to pick one team to get shutout in Week 1, you best bets would have to lie with Florida International. The Panthers have everyone back on offense this season but their only hope in this game is to hold the Jayhawks to 40 or less points and I just don't see that happening here. Florida International has lost 5 of their last 6 road opening games and although nobody ever really gave them a chance to win this game, you can bet your bottom dollar this won't even be close. The Panthers are one of the BOTTOM 5 teams in all of D-1 football and it is going to show in a blowout loss.
The Kansas Jayhawks are not here to mess around this season. Sure they were disappointed at not making it to the BCS Title Game last season but when you lose big games like they lost against Missouri you are not going to crack it. I have to admit I was impresed with the way the Jayhawks responded in the Orange Bowl and took care of business against a very good Virginia Tech team as +3 points underdogs (24-21 win was huge) and I have a feeling this team is going to want to set the tone early this season. Kansas has a nice 15 starters back from last season's team and although their offense is not going to put up the numbers they put up in 2007, I still expect them to have some huge games and this should be the first. QB Todd Reesing had his coming out party against Florida International in 2007 where he passed for almost 500 yards so you know he has confidence coming into this game and you know he can get the job done. The Jayhawks have the problem of replacing their top receiver and top running back from last year who combined for 26 of this team's offensive touchdowns. At first glance that could be huge and it could be a problem replacing them but I am not concerned because the brunt of this offense is back and their leader Reesing is going to make stars of a few other players. RB Jake Sharp is just as capable of destroying opposing defenses and I think he is going to rush for 200+ yards against a Florida International squad that allowed a crazy 39.1 points per game last season and that is against Sun Belt Conference teams. WOW! Kansas only has to show up for this game because their defense is going to takeover in no time and they are going to create enough turnovers for this team to completely dominate on both
I feel it necessary to start this paragraph with a big HAHAHA because you have one of the worst teams in College Football by miles going up against one of the best teams in College Football so who would expect anything but this kind of spread? Regardless of where these two teams came from the last year or two, this is a big time mismatch and I don't know why but I have a feeling the Big 12 is just going to own the Sun Belt Confernce matchups this weekend. I am alread on two BIG 12 teams to win via blowout and I have a feeling both are going to make me a very happy camper.
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.
Kansas 61, Florida International 0
RECAP:
Baylor +11
Oregon State -3
Temple -7
Wisconsin -27
Southern California -19
UL Monroe +26
Texas -23.5
Kansas -35.5
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
My opening night did not go as planned but that's alright. Brought things back to some old school capping for the weekend, while trying to stay away from the big games just because I am going to watch them. Here is what I like for this weekend and now it's time bring homw the cash.
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Friday, August 29
Temple Owls -7 (10 Units)
The Temple Owls are really tough to bet on the way they have played the last few seasons but I am proud to announce that this is my very first wager ever on this team and I don't think I'll be disappointed. I always said to myself I wouldn't waste my money on these guys but I really like what I have seen the last half year and I actually believe this team is very near the level they need to be to contend and recruit properly. The Owls are coming off a decent 4-8 season that saw them pull off wins over Kent State, Northern Illinois, Miami Ohio and Akron which is a very good start if they are going to make a run at the Conference Title in a few years. The key now for this team is to win their non-conference games like this one and something tells me Al Golden has put this in their heads and has put the high emphasis on winning this game big. For those who did you research, although Army won last year's game 37-21, Temple was clearly the better team, winning the First Down battle 25-14 and outyarding the Black Knights by almost 175 yards. Temple has a whopping 22 starters back (11 on both sides of the ball) which has to be the most in the NCAA this season. QB Adam DiMichele is ready for a breakout season even though he is a Senior and I expect the big man to shred apart this pathetic Army defense that brings back only 4 starters on defense and that allowed opponents to score 30.3 points per game last season. If Temple plays even a bit the way they played last season against this Army, they are going to win via the blowout and this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. I love what Al Golden has done around here and now it's time to show it on the field.
The Army Black Knights are one of the most pathetic teams in College Football year in and year out and I am telling you right now that 2008 should be no different whatsoever. This is a team that consistently has problems finding the necessary talent to compete in Division I-A football and there is no reason to believe things will change this time around. Army has only 8 returning starters from a 2007 season that saw them go 3-9 SU with one of those wins coming via luck against this very Temple team as Army was clearly outplayed but somehow found a way to win. Well the same is not happening this season as the Black Knights are still not familiar with Sam Brock's system and the fact that their defense is going to struggle so badly almost ensures that the offense is going to lack continuity in this game. Just to give you an indication of how bad this team is both away and at home, the Black Knights are 5-24 since the 2000 season when playing at home against a I-A opponent and they are only 2-9 SU in their last 11 home openers so regardless how many cadets show up in West Point for this game, this football team is going nowhere fast. Temple's defense is not exactly stout and they did allow 26.3 points per game last season but that was a vast improvement on the 40+ points per game they allowed the two seasons before that and they return a whopping 11 starters in this game. I think it's safe to say that Army is going to struggle to do anything in this game and I am calling for them to get blownout by a program that is hungry for both revenge and for bragging rights of improvement. Army is just not good enough to come close in this game and that just sounds weird considering the opponent is Temple.
This all comes down to revenge for last year's loss. Not only is Temple way more experienced than they were just one season ago but they still have that loss to Army on their minds and I don't see them letting up once they grab the lead in this game. Everyone is looking at the SMU-Rice matchup tonight because it's June Jones' debut with SMU but I think the real value sits in this game. As discussed earlier, this is all about the meeting between these two teams last season because Temple should have won that game and there is no way they forgot the game that prevented them from having a five win season when nobody gave them a shot at two wins. I think Temple is going to fire on all cylinders in this game and although they will make mistakes, Army is too young and incompetent to make something out of it. Temple has really done well against (at the time) fellow INDEPENDENT opponents while Army has been horrendous the last few seasons against MAC Conference opponents and none of that is changing tonight. Bet your money on Temple and they won't disappoint.
Trend of the Game: Temple is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus INDEPENDENT teams.
Temple 34, Army 10
Saturday, August 30
Wisconsin Badgers -27 (5 Units)
The Akron Zips are a team I have given the benefit of the doubt to on many occasions the last few seasons when it comes to College Football betting but that run is over. I was on this team a few times last season and I don't remember them ever cashing in one of my wagers. Having said that, it is time to go the other way and it is time to fade a team I believe is going to have a very rough season playing in the MAC Conference against teams with much better talent levels. Akron is coming off a 4-8 season in 2007 and even though they do bring back 13 starters this season (respectable amount), I just don't think they can improve. Looking back on last season this is the same Akron team that was blownout by 34 points at UConn and the same Akron team that went 2-4-1 ATS as an away underdog last season. The Zips do some have some experienced starters coming back but they are 0-9 SU in their last nine 'true' road opening games having lost those games by 27.0 points per game (thanks Phil Steele Magazine). Akron has not beaten a BIG 10 team since 1894 and there are not about to change that. Wisconsin's defense is returning a whopping 9 starters on defense this season and that will only improve the 23.2 points per game they allowed last season. I expect this defense to be one of the best in the BIG TEN and I think it's safe to say that they are going to have a field day against this very inept Akron offense. We will probably see the good ole Wisconsin defense of a few years back when they allowed only 12.1 points per game. Camp Randall is a very tough place to play and the Badgers rarely miss spread covers at home against non-conference opponents. I think Akron is going to have a bit of success passing the ball but WR Jabari Arthur is gone and he was the backbone of this offense that often, even with him in the lineup, completely useless. I actually see a shutout or close to it in this game.
The Wisconsin Badger not only enter the season with the advantage of having a third year coach in Bret Bielema but they have the pleasure of starting their campaign against a much weaker non-conference opponent which is excatly what they need to boost their confidence before starting Conference play on September 27. The Badgers are coming off a very decent 9-4 SU season in 2007 where they suffered a tough 21-17 loss to Tennesssee in the Outback Bowl. This is a team that has nothing but good things coming their way as they return a whopping 17 starters this season and have the pleasure of already knowing Bielema's system. The only concern coming into this game is the offense because they are going to have a first time starter in this system but Wisconsin has always been about their running game and if they can get outstanding RB PJ Hill going early in this game, there won't be any need to move the ball around in the air. As a matter of fact the running game here will probably open things up for whoever the QB is in this game to air the ball out and find the best TE in the Country in Travis Beckum. This offense is most definitely going to score 30+ points per game this season and I have no doubt in my mind that they are going to pick apart an Akron defense that returns only five starters after a whopping 29.2 points per game last season. This is a very bad spot for the Akron defense because Wisconsin has so many weapons and they are probably going to fire on all cylinders in this game. I am calling for Wisconsin to have a huge first half and it won't be long before they score early in the second half and put the spread way out of reach. This is a total mismatch and Camp Randall just tops things off.
I am not a huge fan of betting on BCS Conference teams to win via blowout on such large spreads but every single season if you look at Week 1 you have a bunch of TOP 25 teams blowing out their opponents by 50+ points and that is one and only reason I am betting on so many large spreads this week. If you are going to back heavy favorites now is the right time to do it as the oddsmakers are a bit off with their numbers and some teams are using the first few weeks of non-conference action to tuneup for Conference play in a few weeks. Akron is actually one of those teams and I am telling you right now that they are nowhere near prepared for this game and for what Wisconsin has to bring. You have a battle between one team (Akron) who has been horrendous as a road ATS team the last few seasons and (Wiscons) who has always been a good team to bet on in home games. Camp Randall should be rocking as always for this game. Unlike the game where Akron visisted Columbus and got away with an ATS win last season, the faithful of Camp Randall are not as nice and this place has proven to be a great home advantage ATS wise over the last few seasons. I think Wisconsin comes out firing on all cylinders in this game. WISKY!
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games at Camp Randall.
Wisconsin 47, Akron 3
Southern California Trojans -19 (5 Units)
The Southern California Trojans have sorta fallen off the college football map since the big Leinart-VC Title Game three years ago and they have not really been involved in big time BCS Title Game talks since (well they have but nothing legit enough to last a full season). The Trojans are coming off a very good but somewhat disappointing 11-2 SU season in 2007 where they capped things off with a 49-17 win in the Rose Bowl as a -14 point favorite. That was the win that will probably catapult this team to big things this season and although many have concerns about travelling out East to begin the season, the matchup is not tough enough to hamper their efforts and I don't think USC is going to have any problems running away with this game. The big game for the Trojans is in two weeks when they host Ohio State so there is the danger that they are looking ahead to that game but my response to that is that Bill Carroll knows better than to let him team lose focus and this game is going to be used to work on different aspects of their game before the Buckeyes come to town. USC is now 7-0 SU in their last seven season opening games and they have won those games by an average of 25.0 points per game which makes me think that trend is going to follow suit in this game. The Trojans bring back only four starters on offense this season which is a concern but the talent pool is so deep on this team and QB Mark Sanchez has been around for quite sometime and he is ready to make an impact. The receiving and RB corps are super deep on this team and although Virginia's defense is pretty damn good, don't count on them to stop the Trojans for more than a few drives. Virginia allowed only 19.7 points per game last season but a) they play in the ACC and b) they returned 10 starters last season compared to only 5 this season. So you can bet your bottom dollar that with an inexperienced bunch of players on their defensive side, the Cavaliers are going to get whalloped in this game. I think USC is going to use the game to some doubt in the heads of the Buckeyes and that is exactly what should happen. No way this is not a blowout win by the Trojans.
The Virginia Cavaliers are quite possibly the worst team in the entire ACC Conference this season and that is not good considering some experts have the Duke Blue Devils ranked higher than them. Can you really blame those experts? I mean Virginia is coming off a very impressive and surprising 9-4 SU season that saw them go to the Gator Bowl and lose 31-28 to Texas Tech as +6 point underdogs. As good as the future looked for this Virginia team at some point last season, the bottom line remains that the team is bringing back only 11 total starters this season and they have lost the likes of QB Jameel Sewell and WR Tom Santi. Sewell is a big loss for this team because he was directly responsible for 12 passing touchdowns and 4 rushing touchdowns and now the team has to break in a pivot with no gurantees. You have to be impressed with the job Al Groh has done around here as a home underdog going 13-3 ATS since his arrival in 2001 but the USC Trojans are in a completely different league and as I mentioned before these two teams do not matchup well when it comes to speed, size and agility. Virginia is a very good team in Home Openers winning 20 of their last 23 SU but they have not faced an opponent of this quality on opening night in a very long time and like I mentioned before this is a totally different animal. Offensively things are going to be difficult because USC has a ferocious defense that is already out to make a statement and the Trojans return 7 starters on defense from a squad that allowed only 16.0 points per game last season and 15.0 points per game the season before that. So the bottom line here is that if your offense is going to have ineffective moments in a game they are not going to get really far with this defense. As much as this team has been good as home underdogs, the Trojans are a top quality opponent and the Cavaliers are going to have their hands full on both sides of the ball.
The matchup is not ideal and the pickings were slim this week when it came to identifying bad lines but the bottom line in this game is that on one side of things you have a team that is clearly on the re-building stage in Virginia and on the other hand you have a team that cannot afford poor efforts this season as they are going for their first BCS Title Game appearance since the Matt Leinart era ended a few years back. I really like the comment Phil Steele made about this Virginia team. He said that if you change 5-6 plays from games last season that this team would have finished with a 4-9 SU record and not the other way around which makes them slightly overrated coming into the season. The Cavaliers don't have the talent to compete and although Al Groh is very good at getting his guys ready for games being played in Scott Stadium, nothing Virginia does in this game will be enough to pulloff the win. USC is too talented on both sides of the ball and Bill Carroll understands very well what a big win (large margin) means to the progress of the Trojans. I am positive USC is going to make a statement in this game.
Trend of the Game: USC is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
Southern California 38, Virginia 10
UL Monroe Warhawks +26 (3 Units)
The UL Monroe Warhawks pretty much sent shockwaves through the college football world last season when they knocked off the Alabama Crimson Tide. I know upsets like that only come around once in a blue moon but at first glance I thought Auburn is for sure going to come out and blow these clowns out of the water. However I decided to check who was returning for this UL Monroe team and realized that the core of this team is still together. The Warhawks are coming a 6-6 SU season that saw them come close in a lot of games and had it not been for a few bad turn of events in some earlier season games, we would have seen this team in a Bowl Game for the first time ever. Well I am going to go out on a limb and call for them to reach a Bowl Game this season because they have their best ever. UL Monroe has not been good in road openers having lost 14 in a row (they were shutout four times during that span) but I think they can put a little somethign together in this game and scare the Tigers away. This team has 7 starters returning on offense and even though they didn't put huge numbers up on the board last season, QB Kinsmon Lancaster is a playmaker and I think he will have no problems controlling himself against this Auburn defense. The Tigers do have speed and strength up front and they do return 7 starters on defense but I think UL Monroe can put some scores up on the board in this game. If New Mexico State can score 20 points on this defense like they did last season, I have no doubts the Warhawks can get a little something going with their outstanding group of RB's and WR's. I know beating Alabama was huge last season but you have to believe this team has a ton of confidence heading into this game and if that is really the case, they are going to make a serious push to win this game via the big playmaking abilities of Lancaster. You can't forget that this team went into Clemson last season for their first road game as +26 point underdogs and they managed to cover the spread against an offense that is much better than Auburn's so this team has a not only a shot at the cover but an outside shot at the shocker.
The Auburn Tigers once again are being called National Title Contenders heading into this season but how many times have we heard that over the years and how many times have they actually made it there? There is just something about playing in the SEC that doesn't suit the Tigers because they end up winning and losing close games that ultimately cost them in the National Title picture. Auburn comes into the season off a 9-4 SU season that ended with their 23-20 overtime win over the Clemson Tigers as a +2 point underdog in that game. Auburn is 6-0 SU all-time versus UL Monroe and they have won those games by an average of 33.0 points per game but that was when the Warhawks lacked substance on their team and now the Tigers have to face the best UL Monroe team there ever has been. I think Auburn is probably going to struggle to score points in this game because they have to work in a new offensive coordinator in Troy St. Franklin and the quarterback situation is a big question mark right now. Sure they return 9 offensive starters but the QB Situation could be a problem and learning this new system could take some time. QB Kodi Burns is the only quarterback with any kind of in-game experience but he only attempted 26 passes in 2007 and managed to complete only 10 of those passes. UL Monroe brings back 7 starters on defense this season and they allowed a decent 27.7 points per game last season. This is the most starters they have returned on defense since the 2004 season. Auburn is equipped to balance their gameplay on both offense and defense but that will be tough to do in this game because UL Monroe is scrappy and the Tigers can't have scrappy defenses at this point in time becuase they are trying to learn a new system. The weakness in this defense lies in the secondary but again who the heck is going to get those Auburn receivers the ball? The inexperience up front and the lack of system knowledge is going to keep things close enough that UL Monroe is going to be a threat to win the game straight up. Sure Auburn is good but I don't think they are ready.
This is UL Monroe's Bowl Game right here because they know that should it come down to the committee having to choose them at the end of the season, their performance in this game is going to be crucial. What this team did last season does not matter heading into this game because Auburn is much better than Alabama on both sides of the ball and this is a new season. However, if you are going to be bet on a team to win by large double digits, you better make sure they have an offense that is going to fire on all cylinders (which Auburn does not) and you have to make sure you have a team that understands the long term system (which again Auburn will not until a few weeks from now). Looking back on some of Auburn's games last season, they were favored by 20+ points zero times and the year before that they went 1-3 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. Auburn has never been a program that relies on high flying offenses which is why I think they are going to struggle to put this game away and that will probably wear a little thin on their defense who will allow uncharacteristic touchdowns to a UL Monroe team that is hungry for another upset. I know it's Week 1 so I am taking a huge risk here and calling for the upset.
Trend of the Game: UL Monroe is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus SEC opponents.
UL Monroe 21, Auburn 20
Texas Longhorns -23.5 (5 Units)
The Florida Atlantic Owls are once again the favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference Title this season like they did in 2007 and that is because they are very well coached with coach Snells and they have a very good core of players to work with. Much has been said about the smaller Florida schools gaining a lot of recognition when it comes recruiting measures and the Owls are definitely one of those teams that has stepped up their recruiting game the last few seasons. They are coming off a Sun Belt Conference Title off an 8-5 SU season but they have not performed well as road underdogs the last few seasons going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games away dogs which tells me that they are only made to play against conference opponents. This team looked damn impressive in the New Orleans Bowl last season as they beat the Memphis Tigers 44-27 as -3 point favorites but that could also have the counter effect of having this team a tad bit overconfident. They are returning a whopping 18 starters this season but again I do not trust them against bigger name schools. They have now lost three straight road opening games (last three seasons) and they have all been blowout losses by an average of 33 points per game. You all remember cappers calling for this Owls team to beat Oklahoma State last season but that never panned out as the Owls got whalloped 42-6. I expect much of the same in this game as Texas is returning quite a few key members of their defense despite bringing back only 4 starters on the defensive side of things. Having said that, I don't know what the Owls can be effective on offense if their defense is flustered because the pressure will be on to air the ball out and as well as QB Rusty Smith played in some of the big games last season, he made way too many mistakes against the bigger name schools and I think Texas is going to shock some people in this game with their tough defense. I like Florida Atlantic's offense but I don't like them in big games and I think they will be no shows for this big game (much like they have been for the last three seasons in road openers against BCS Schools).
The Texas Longhorns need a good season or this could spell the end of the line for Mac Brown. The Horns are coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons since the departure of Vince Young and the guys here right now are just not getting the job done. So the team is in bad need of someone who can in here and make a big time impact. The problem has never really been an offensive dropoff although this team did average 50.0 points per game when Vince Young was and they won the National Title in 2005. The Longhorns are coming off a 10-3 SU season which was not bad at all but again does not match the standards that this team likes to meet every season. The Horns did however look very impressive in the Holiday Bowl with their 50+ points performance in a rout of the Arizona State Sun Devils. The key to the season will be starting off strong as the Horns failed to do in 2007, narrowly beating an Arkansas State team from the same Sun Belt Conference as this Florida Atlantic. What I do like about this game is that Texas has now won 9 season opening games and they have won those games by a whopping average of 43.0 points per game. If you combined that with the fact that Florida Atlantic struggles to keep up with much bigger and better teams and I think you have blowout written all over this game. Texas is also a very nice 12-0 SU all time versus teams from the Sunbelt Conference as they have won those games by average margin of 26.0 points per game. The offense returns 7 offensive starters and I have a feeling that QB Colt McCoy is going to have a breakout season. Florida Atlantic returns a nice 8 starters on defense this season but they allowed 33.2 points per game last season so teams with effective offenses are going to have a field day against this team and that is exactly what I expect Texas to do in this game. It really doesn't take a rocket science to realize that there are several big weakness in the Owls defense mainly their pass defense which means a healthy Colt McCoy will pick apart this team left and right. I have no doubts in my mind that Texas can blow these guys out.
This is the kind of game the betting public is probably going to be tempted to fade the Longhorns because they are so hit and miss and they have not had a decent ATS season since 2005 when they went a whopping 11-2 ATS that year and Vince Young was still here running the show. Well believe it or not the Longhorns are the kind of team that shows up when doubted and there is no way they are going to lose their home opener to a Sun Belt Conference team and no way they are going to let that kind of team hang for more than one quarter. Florida Atlantic, as mentioned many times, has a really tough time playing against BCS Schools with talent and they are going to struggle to score points against this Texas team. I feel it is necessary to mention that Florida Atlantic has lost their last three road openers versus BCS Schools and those have come by an average of 32.0 points per game. Mac Brown and Colt McCoy both need this game to go well because both are being watched with close eyes and should things not go well this season there is no guarantee that one or both will be back next season. Texas has way too much size and way too much depth not to win this game by at least 30 points.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
Texas 54, Florida Atlantic 13
Kansas Jayhawks -35.5 (5 Units)
The Florida International Panthers are coming yet another horrendous season so I don't know what to expect from this bunch. I have heard from newsletters that they are a much improved team this season but calling a team that went 1-11 SU last season improved is not saying much because all they really need to do is win one more game than last season and that would be like reaching a Bowl Game for this team. The Panthers do return an impressive 18 starters to the mix (9 on offense and 9 on defense) so their conference play is probably going to improve but to have to start the season against a Kansas team that can suffocate you on both sides of the ball is prett much deadly. The Panthers played here last season in Lawrence and got blown out of the water 55-3. I challenge anyone to come up with one or two good reasons why Florida International would make them game this season any close. They won't. We are talking about a team that managed to score only 15.9 points per game last season and that managed only 9.6 points per game the season before that. Sure there are signs of improvement in the spring game but have you seen the Kansas defense? After allowing only 16.4 points per game in 2007, they return a BIG 12 high 9 starters on defense which means that opponents are going to struggle to score more than 10 points per game against this team. Joe Mortensen and Justin Thornton are the leaders on this defense and if you had to pick one team to get shutout in Week 1, you best bets would have to lie with Florida International. The Panthers have everyone back on offense this season but their only hope in this game is to hold the Jayhawks to 40 or less points and I just don't see that happening here. Florida International has lost 5 of their last 6 road opening games and although nobody ever really gave them a chance to win this game, you can bet your bottom dollar this won't even be close. The Panthers are one of the BOTTOM 5 teams in all of D-1 football and it is going to show in a blowout loss.
The Kansas Jayhawks are not here to mess around this season. Sure they were disappointed at not making it to the BCS Title Game last season but when you lose big games like they lost against Missouri you are not going to crack it. I have to admit I was impresed with the way the Jayhawks responded in the Orange Bowl and took care of business against a very good Virginia Tech team as +3 points underdogs (24-21 win was huge) and I have a feeling this team is going to want to set the tone early this season. Kansas has a nice 15 starters back from last season's team and although their offense is not going to put up the numbers they put up in 2007, I still expect them to have some huge games and this should be the first. QB Todd Reesing had his coming out party against Florida International in 2007 where he passed for almost 500 yards so you know he has confidence coming into this game and you know he can get the job done. The Jayhawks have the problem of replacing their top receiver and top running back from last year who combined for 26 of this team's offensive touchdowns. At first glance that could be huge and it could be a problem replacing them but I am not concerned because the brunt of this offense is back and their leader Reesing is going to make stars of a few other players. RB Jake Sharp is just as capable of destroying opposing defenses and I think he is going to rush for 200+ yards against a Florida International squad that allowed a crazy 39.1 points per game last season and that is against Sun Belt Conference teams. WOW! Kansas only has to show up for this game because their defense is going to takeover in no time and they are going to create enough turnovers for this team to completely dominate on both
I feel it necessary to start this paragraph with a big HAHAHA because you have one of the worst teams in College Football by miles going up against one of the best teams in College Football so who would expect anything but this kind of spread? Regardless of where these two teams came from the last year or two, this is a big time mismatch and I don't know why but I have a feeling the Big 12 is just going to own the Sun Belt Confernce matchups this weekend. I am alread on two BIG 12 teams to win via blowout and I have a feeling both are going to make me a very happy camper.
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.
Kansas 61, Florida International 0
RECAP:
Baylor +11
Oregon State -3
Temple -7
Wisconsin -27
Southern California -19
UL Monroe +26
Texas -23.5
Kansas -35.5
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
