MistaFlava's CFB Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2020 College Football Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

Back for another year and looking forward to dedicating a bit more time to capping games in 2020. Hopefully we make it through the season and hopefully the environment is safe enough for the Big 10 and PAC 10 Conference to re-consider and come back in the next few months.

Not easy to cap some of these games but we can find some angles that work.

Hope the entire RX Forum community is doing well and staying safe and let's make a bit of cash!

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Saturday, August 29


Central Arkansas Bears -4.5 (10 Units)

Some of you may have missed the line down at -3 but it's okay. The UNDER is probably the right play for all with the predicted rain and hurricane type downpour they are calling for but I don't like Totals and I'm going to stick to this play. Sharps were all over the opening line and rode this all the way to -5 for Central Arkansas with a bit of help from the betting public. The other betting public has driven this line down to where it is now so we catch a bit of a break. Buy down if you feel better about it. Offense has always been the issue for Central Arkansas so don't expect crazy fireworks in this one. A slow grind is more like it with a couple of explosive plays here and there. My research says the Bears were ranked 118 of 124 FCS teams in rushing yards last season, not ideal in a risk of rain game like this one but QB Breylin Smith has a big arm and they won't shy away from taking big shots in the passing game. In a low scoring game that could be deadly for Austin Peay.

Speaking of the Governors (Austin Peay) they are breaking in a brand new head coach and that's always a really sketchy slope to walk. Mark Hudspeth is the man who led this team to an FSC Quarter-Final in 2019 and he's gone. So much talk of the Austin Peay offense and their QB of 3-4 years Jeremiah Otsvall but he missed the 2019 season with an injury (ironically got hurt against Central Arkansas last year). It won't help Oatsvall that the entire backfield has departed Austin Peay. Don't forget the offense had a grand total of 0 points at Halftime in last year's matchup. Something to keep in mind.

I continue to back the UNDER and those who like betting totals in these games. Both defense should be up to the task tonight and Central Arkansas even has an NFL ready CB in Robert Rochell. I think the betting public will be all over Austin Peay in this one because of their massive wins in the FCS playoffs last year but a lot has changed. This should be a good defensive game (or poor offensive game) with Central Arkansas being the better team in the air with the best ability to strike big. That should be the difference and I expect this game to come down to the final drive or close it when it comes to the spread. Maybe even overtime?

Trend of the Game: --None--


Central Arkansas 19, Austin Peay 14




more to come...

 

[Knightrofins]

Good luck this season

 

[TimmyRules]

BOL MFlava!

Conway is about 60 miles East of me...I’m no weather man, but if the projected future forecast holds per The Weather Channel, it’s not expected to have heavy rain, or maybe none at all...maybe explains line up to 46x...??

Just an FYI, watch it piss and pour now, LOL.

BOL this season!

 

[TimmyRules]

I even looked at UCA website and could have swore I saw something about them playing at home...kth)(&^

Crazy ending and it stayed under ...w-thumbs!^

 

[lakrfan2000]

Flav! Welcome back my brutha!! Wishing you a very profitable season!

 

[Husker4Ever71]

Good luck M-Flava!! Your posts are always a good read!! Make it a profitable season!!

 

[Lotterymoney]

Ok I'm confused Draftkings has them a 19.5 point under dog
+950 ml

Scratch that sorry

 

[Lotterymoney]

DraftKings has them playing uab

 

[stock07]

DraftKings has them playing uab

Mistaflav game was last week...

The game you are looking that is THIS week...Uab.

 

[Lotterymoney]

I see now lol

 

[MistaFlava]

1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)

Nice to see all of you in here and my bad I should have posted that first game back as "Week 0" but figured it was technically part of Week 1. I will have 2 plays tonight. Posting very shortly, stay tuned. This season I will be posting most plays close to kickoff or at least in the final few hours based on new angles.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Thursday, September 3


Central Arkansas-UAB Blazers 'UNDER' 50 (10 Units)

We all saw the game last week (I Cashed on that late Central Arkansas touchdown) and for the most part this team's offense is a problem. Everyone was saying their running game wouldn't do anything against a very solid Austin Peay D but the running game got the job done and that leads me to believe they will continue to run the ball and that helps us on the clock. UAB also love to control the clock and run the ball which should make this a back and forth game with several punts to discuss once is all said and done.

I don't have any doubt UAB wins this game but the way the betting public drove the OVER up in the early stages is concerning and I've seen way too many people on the OVER for my liking. Aside from allowing a 75 yard touchdown on the opening play of the game, Central Arkansas's defense allowed only 77 total yards the rest of the game and have a ton of returning starters from last season including an NFL ready DB who scouts will have their eyes on. We saw so many Austin Peay drives stall in that game.

So as mentioned everyone is expecting fireworks and UAB might score a couple early but they love to run the ball and Central Arkansas is confident running the ball after their encouraging performance last week. That should drain a ton of clock in this game. I'm going UNDER.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 4-1 in UAB's last five September games.


UAB 26, Central Arkansas 3



more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




South Alabama Jaguars +13 (10 Units)

Give me the underdog in this one. Two head coaches who are familiar with each other and coached together way back in the day? That tells me rivalry. It also tells me if somehow Southern Miss is up 10 late and have an opportunity to punch a late one in with time winding down, they are more likely to take a knee instead. These are all things that need to be factored in when it comes to college football. Both these programs were decent at moving the ball last season but they could never finish drives with touchdowns or points and we'll see if that has changed in 2020.

South Alabama QB Desmond Trotter was good at times in 2019 and was also bad at times but a year later he should be a bit more explosive and make better decisions. The offensive line has been around forever and the Jaguars have a very good core of receivers and new full-time unique offensive coordinator to boot! One of the issues for Southern Miss in 2019 was they could not stop turning the ball over and some of those turnovers at the most outrageous times in ball games. If you are counting, these two teams combined turned the ball over 48 times (OUCH!). The real question is who is going to recover the best from those turnovers and I think South Alabama has enough pop with Trotter to ensure a spread cover late in this game and win on a late touchdown.

There you have it. I took the straight South Alabama win because in most cases if you are brave enough to bet on an underdog you have to like them enough to win the actual game (not considering the -50 point college football spreads). Southern Miss comes into this game 1-5 ATS in their last six games played under the Thursday Night Lights and in what could be a sloppy game I have to go with Trotter and his receivers to score some points late to either make this interesting or secure the win as an underdog.

Trend of the Game: Southern Miss is 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday Night Games.


South Alabama 24, Southern Miss 23




more to come...

 

[indiana]

M/Flava........BOL with tonight's action buddy....missed one, on the other........

hope all is well with your and family.........BOL with all your season action buddy........indy

 

[Kysps2020]

Is that 1st half total. Lol

 

[MistaFlava]

2-1 (+9.00 Units) this week!

That ladies and gentlemen is why I rarely do CFB Totals. Lost before we even hit the half pretty much. Picked straight up winner with South Alabama. Will be back this weekend with a few picks on the limited slate.

STAY SAFE AND WELCOME BACK FOOTBALL!

 

[Baronman]

Where do you live in the OCC

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Saturday, September 5



Middle Tennessee-Army 'Under' 55 (10 Units)

Said I would stay away from TOTALS but I really like this one instead of following the popular play of taking the UNDERDOG Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. That's already been done by too many. Both teams love to run the ball and I mean run the ball. The Blue Raiders have 2 Quarterbacks who can move on their feet and I believe QB Asher O'Hara led the team in rushing when he played in 2019. Army's defense allowed only 23.0 points per game in 2019 despite having a 5-8 overall record and ranked in the TOP 30 in points allowed in the Nation. I don't doubt Middle Tennessee State will score some points in this one but Army really really wants to control the clock and the possession.

The Black Knights introduce a brand new Quarterback in this game as QB Christian Anderson replaces the departing Kelvin Hopkins Jr. I mention this because the emphasis early will be to keep the ball for as long as possible and keep it out of the hands of a Middle Tennessee offense which can be explosive. I can really see the Army offense sustaining long drives where they either have to settle for Field Goals, turn the ball over on downs or turn the ball over straight because of the inexperience at the QB position. The key will be for Army's defense to keep them in the game if this happens as they went 0-6 last season when allowing 24+ points in a game. In 2019, Middle Tennessee had 6 games where they scored 24 or less points so there is a good chance.

I think this spread (and ML) comes down to the wire and a late touchdown. Someone has been pounding Middle Tennessee State all week but the public seems to now be leaning back towards Army. I don't trust the spread. The real POWER SELECTION is on the UNDER here.

Trend of the Game: UNDER is 7-3-1 in Army's last 11 September games.


Middle Tennessee 21, Army 20



more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Texas State Bobcats +23.5 (10 Units)

No doubt about it everyone is going to take a shot a the Southern Methodist Mustangs blowout in this game but there are better "Blowout" candidates on the slate today and I'll get to that a bit later. If you look at the game between these two schools in 2019 it finished 47-17 for SMU who were playing at home, with their fans and in the comfort of their facilities. Texas State starting QB Brady McBride is a Memphis transfer who has only played a handful of downs in college football and who sat out the 2019 season but he comes with a point to prove. He's a lot better than Tyler Vitt and from what I have read McBride had a tremendous fall camp and is ready to make an immediate impact.

Can Texas State stop the SMU offense from exploding now that they've lost their top three tacklers from 2019? SMU is coming off it's best season in 35 years and their star QB Shane Buechele is back again. However it has to be mentioned and discussed that start WR James Proche (who we saw make so many big plays in games over the years) and so are star running backs Xavier Jones and Kemon Freeman. The Mustangs also have a new offensive coordinator so the offense is not going to be as crisp as it has been in the past or at least not this early in the season. This is a great game for SMU to take it somewhat easy and get familiar with their new starters and OC.

SMU was TERRIBLE on defense in 2019 allowing 33.4 points per game and 5 of their top 6 tacklers are gone. That eaves the door wide open for Texas State and their new QB to put some points on the board at home and keep this within the number. I think most of the betting public is not aware of the losses for SMU on offense or the "letdown" angle that comes with the kind of season they had in 2019. I'm going with Texas State to cover this spread.

Trend of the Game: ---None---


Southern Methodist 34, Texas State 30




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Memphis Tigers -18.5 (10 Units)

Alright I mentioned earlier that there were a lot better candidates for a "Blowout" scenario game and this is the one. I think a good amount of people are going to be on Arkansas State because they believe they can score enough to keep this close but this number is really low considering what Memphis is capable of on the offensive side of things. I mean they won 6 of their games by 19+ points in 2019. This is the same Memphis team that finished #17 in the Nation and beat Cincinnati for AAC Championship last fall before getting blown out by Penn State in a Bowl Game that deserved better. The big concern here outside of how well Arkansas State is coached? Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell just recently opted out of the 2020 season due to Covid concerns so the Tigers will rely on QB Brady White to continue the tear he was on in 2019 (33 TD passes and only 11 Interceptions).

I could see some wagers on Arkansas State in this game because of their head coach Blake Anderson and the fact that he has had a winning season all six seasons he's been with the program. It's impressive but so is the Tigers defense who return most of their key starters and who will be out to make a point after allowing 50+ points the way they did against Penn State in the Cotton Bowl. QB Layne Hatcher was tremendous for Arkansas State in his freshman year although he did throw 10 interceptions in 9 games and loses his two star wide receivers (Bayless and Merrit) who both combined for an incredible 29 Touchdown catches and 163 combined receptions. I talked about the Arkansas State defense a bit earlier. They were terrible in 2019 and now their top 3 tacklers are gone so if the offense stalls even just a bit against this Memphis offense, they'll be down by 3 or more scores at halftime without much of a chance to come back.

Memphis Head Coach Ryan Silverfield will be eager to show he can take this program by the horns and lead it to another great season after last year's Head Coach Mike Norvell took off for Florida State. He has his star QB back and finding secondary weapons for this program has never been an issue. It's always been next man up mentality and the Tigers have a ton of weapons. This game qualifies as my blowout candidate of the day and I'm going with a massive Memphis win.

Trend of the Game: Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 September games.


Memphis 52, Arkansas State 17



more to come...