MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 3-5 ATS (-10.80 Units)
Not the kind of start I was looking for but nonetheless I am happy with the way things went seeing how I don't usually do too well in Weeks 1 and 2. I just got home from the bush and feel like capping and betting on some games today so here we go. Lets make this a good day.
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Monday, September 1
Fresno State Bulldogs +3.5 (25 Units)
The Fresno State Bulldogs are the kind of team you definitely want to back in games like this when they go up against bigger and better schools. Not only are the lines a bit inflated but this program has continuously shocked bettors year after year with wins or close losses against BCS Conference schools. This game should be no different as the Fresno State Bulldogs come into this game seeking a BCS Bowl bid and they have the team to take them there. They have a whopping 10 starters back on offense which means this team is going to match Rutgers for everything they can do in this game. I know the Scarlet Knights have a tough defense but Fresno State is coming off a 9-4 SU record in 2007 with a 7-5 ATS record in those games. They opened their tough schedule with a 47-45 loss at Texas A&M as +17 underdogs. The season before they went to Washington for their season opener as +3 underdogs and lost 21-20. In 2005 the Bulldogs went to Oregon for their road opener and lost 37-34 as +2 point underdogs and in 2004 this very same team went to Washington as +1 point underdogs and won 35-16. So for those who have doubts that this team can win this game you can take them and shove them because the Bulldogs are a very well coached team that is prime for upsets. So as much as they have been losing these close games to BCS Conference schools in their road openers, the Bulldogs are bound to win one of them and there is no reason for this game not to be just as close. With the late week game this time around, this team gets almost two weeks off before playing against Wisconsin at home so everything gets put on the line in this game and the Bulldogs have nothing to hold back. Rutgers allowed only 22.5 points per game last season and they do return 8 starters on defense so you know they are going to play these guys tough. Having said that, Fresno State brings back 10 starters from an offense that scored 32.8 points per game last season. RB Ryan Matthews, QB Tom Brandstater and WR Marion Moore are all back and this team is very capable of giving Rutgers all sorts of fits in this game. I really like Fresno State in this game.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights know they can win this game and they know they can win big. They have won 12 of their last 14 non-conference home games by an average 28 points per game but what people don't realize and what oddsmakers are overlooking here is the fact that those games were against regular non-conference opponents. Fresno State is notches above most other opponents Rutgers has faced and the Scarlet Knights might not know what is coming in this one. Sure they return a total of 15 starters from a team that went 8-5 SU last season and 6-6 ATS but something tells me that they are going to have a bit of an off year after the departure of the best running back this team has ever seen (Ray Rice is gonzo and that is going to hurt). Not only did RB Ray Rice control most of this offense but he is the reason it worked and he was responsible for 2012 rushing yards in 2008 and 25 total touchdowns. So to say that replacing him is easy or can be done would be quite the assumption and incorrect statement. Sure there are other RB's on this team that saw some playing time last season but none possess the power and speed of Rice who is know making some dough in the NFL. Rutgers was only 2-3 ATS last season in home games as the favorite and I don't like their chances of blowing away the Bulldogs here. Fresno State is not the best defensive team in the Nation and they did allow 27.0 points per game last season but that was decent considering they returned only 3 starters in 2007 and now they return some of their top stars and return 7 starters on that side of the ball. This defense should resemble their defense of the 2004 season. Even with Ray Rice in the lineup I always thought this team was a bit overrated and their performances against Cincinnati and Maryland (early in the season in 2007) pretty proved my point. QB Mike Teel is not all that and if it wasn't for Rice's running abilities and threats to opposing defenses, Teel woulda been in a lot more trouble than he was with his 34 career touchdown passes to go along with his 36 career interceptions which is pathetic. Fresno State should get enough pressure on Teel to force him into his typical mistakes and I have no concerns with the way this defense is going to play. I know this is the home opener but Rutgers lost a huge piece of their heart and without a pulse it won't be easy to win games like this one.
This is a great chance for bettors to cash in on Fresno State before the world realizes that this is a pretty good team. They have not been ATS juggernauts the last few seasons like they had become in 2004 and 2005 but this is the place to start as this team is loaded with Seniors and ready to battle for the WAC Conference Title. Rutgers, although still a good team is heading the other way right now with the loss of Rice and it's going to take a bit of time for them to get the engines running and Rice replaced (which I don't think is really possible). Yes the lines are strong on both sides for this team but Fresno State is a load to handle and this team is going to come at them with everything they have under the hat of Pat Hill tricks. If the Bulldogs want any chances the BCS Bid for a Bowl they have to kick things off with an upset in this game and they have to win road games like this (something Boise State has trademarked in their attempts to reach the BCS). I don't have any confidence in QB Mike Teel for Rutgers and I think this Fresno State defense is actually going to surprise some people in this game. The difference for me here is the Bulldogs offense and even though Rutgers will make some big stops, it won't be enough to avoid the upset as the Bulldogs win this one in the second half.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Fresno State 24, Rutgers 22
Tennessee Volunteers -7 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Volunteers know they cannot afford to come into this game they way they came into the West Coast last season when they walked into Cal and got their asses handed to them 45-31. Sure that was a game that pretty much changed their season as they went on to a 10-4 record and beat Wisconsin 21-17 in the Outback Bowl to cap it all off as a -1 favorite but the bottom line is that Phillip Fulmer has warned his guys that if they do not perform in this game, they can forget about ever winning the SEC. Some have called this the year for Tennessee if Jonathan Crompton can pickup where Erik Ainge leftoff and I do agree with that to some point. The Vols are coming off that decent season despite winning more games than they should have but they did go 8-4-2 ATS in 2007 and they do return enough starters on both sides of the ball to make me think they can win this game big for a change. Tennessee is 12-2 SU in their last 14 season opening games with both losses coming to teams from the PAC 10 but once again the players are well aware of the problems some of the PAC 10 teams have caused them over the years and they should come out with fire in their eyes for this one. Ainge is gone and RB Arian Foster might not play but this offense is still as powerful as it gets with the teams top three receivers back for another season and with quite an impressive crop of RB's available to play in this game that saw time last season and that are waiting to breakout. Crompton is a bit of a concern because he didn't play much last season and he is raw but he has played in 14 career games for Tennessee and has been decent. It won't take long for Fulmer to take him out if things are not working well. You havce to expect Tennessee to run, run, run the ball in this game because UCLA is returning only 4 starters on defense this season and that is from a team that allowed 22.3 points per game last season with a whopping 10 starters returning on defense. No such luck this time around. This defense is probably going to resemble the defense that they put out there in 2005 when they allowed 34.2 points per game and struggled big time. If you can't get things done in a new system against the type of offense Tennessee brings to the table, you are not going to beat these guys and you are not going to make this a game. I think Tennessee is too well prepared for this game and I think the Vols are going to blow the socks off the Bruins in this game. Just watch and learn.
The UCLA Bruins are a team I used to make huge cash on when betting on them in the right spots but with the arrival of Rick Neuheisel as their head coach, the good times are done and it's time to continue fading this team. I know the Bruins had some decent showings in the 2007 season but I have a bad feeling they are going to continue struggling and it will be another few years before we can actually bet on this team with confidence. The key to success on betting the UCLA Bruins was backing them when they were home underdogs because Karl Dorrell was 4-0 ATS in his tenure here when his team was the underdog at the Rose Bowl and I was ready to unload on them here had he still been around. Unfortunately he is now gone and it's time re-adjust the theory. UCLA is returning a total of only 9 starters on this team and I don't have much confidence that they can compete better than they did in 2007 when they went 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS. UCLA looked decent in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2007 where they were +6 point underdogs and lost 17-16 to BYU. Pretty much every position on this team is a big fat question mark because they have been plagued with injuries and have struggled to keep guys healthy. UCLA has always been a very good home opening team to bet on because they have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 home openers but there comes a time for everything to change and they are going to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one. Sure scoring points on Tennessee is not that tough and the Bruins will score some points in this game but they return only 4 starters on offense this season so their 22.4 points per game last season is going to go down as they had 10 returning starters that year. Tennesse did allow 27.3 points per game defensively last season but I think they are going to be much tougher this season with the schedule they have and even though they have only 6 returning starters (most since 2005 so its not that bad), I think they can completely shutdown the Bruins in this game. I want to keep reminding you guys that winning is a must for Tennessee in this game while UCLA will be glad to compete. I just don't see how this offense is going to make a mark against an SEC defense that is going to be ready and that returns all their top rushers from last season. They also return some of their top defensive backs and the only way the Bruins can have success is if they find a way to control the clock and run the ball down Tennessee's throats. Not happening in this game if you ask me.
So to keep things in perspective here, yes I am betting on yet another road team for this Monday but you have to think of the way things are going for these two teams. Tennessee is in no way or shape losing this game tonight and UCLA is trying to make things work under a new head coach. Dorrell's departure looked like it was going to work in the Bowl Game as UCLA managed to play well against BYU and almost win that game but again Tennessee comes into this game with a huge win on their minds after their embarassing start to the 2007 season against Cal just one year ago. This game is on primetime television and the public is all over the Vols here but I am not falling for that crap that the public is going to get screwed because I strongly believe that this line is perfect and I really believe Tennessee can turn this thing into a complte blowout if they play all their cards right. The era of home underdog ATS covers (UCLA has not lost ATS as a home underdog since 2002) has come to an end and now for the first time since that season, we are going to have a team come in here and blowout the Bruins like they were supposed to according to oddsmakers. No time to mess around here guys, take the better team and pound them hard. Vols are gonna kick some ass.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus non-conference opponents.
Tennessee 41, UCLA 17
GOOD LUCK!
:toast:
Not the kind of start I was looking for but nonetheless I am happy with the way things went seeing how I don't usually do too well in Weeks 1 and 2. I just got home from the bush and feel like capping and betting on some games today so here we go. Lets make this a good day.
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Monday, September 1
Fresno State Bulldogs +3.5 (25 Units)
The Fresno State Bulldogs are the kind of team you definitely want to back in games like this when they go up against bigger and better schools. Not only are the lines a bit inflated but this program has continuously shocked bettors year after year with wins or close losses against BCS Conference schools. This game should be no different as the Fresno State Bulldogs come into this game seeking a BCS Bowl bid and they have the team to take them there. They have a whopping 10 starters back on offense which means this team is going to match Rutgers for everything they can do in this game. I know the Scarlet Knights have a tough defense but Fresno State is coming off a 9-4 SU record in 2007 with a 7-5 ATS record in those games. They opened their tough schedule with a 47-45 loss at Texas A&M as +17 underdogs. The season before they went to Washington for their season opener as +3 underdogs and lost 21-20. In 2005 the Bulldogs went to Oregon for their road opener and lost 37-34 as +2 point underdogs and in 2004 this very same team went to Washington as +1 point underdogs and won 35-16. So for those who have doubts that this team can win this game you can take them and shove them because the Bulldogs are a very well coached team that is prime for upsets. So as much as they have been losing these close games to BCS Conference schools in their road openers, the Bulldogs are bound to win one of them and there is no reason for this game not to be just as close. With the late week game this time around, this team gets almost two weeks off before playing against Wisconsin at home so everything gets put on the line in this game and the Bulldogs have nothing to hold back. Rutgers allowed only 22.5 points per game last season and they do return 8 starters on defense so you know they are going to play these guys tough. Having said that, Fresno State brings back 10 starters from an offense that scored 32.8 points per game last season. RB Ryan Matthews, QB Tom Brandstater and WR Marion Moore are all back and this team is very capable of giving Rutgers all sorts of fits in this game. I really like Fresno State in this game.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights know they can win this game and they know they can win big. They have won 12 of their last 14 non-conference home games by an average 28 points per game but what people don't realize and what oddsmakers are overlooking here is the fact that those games were against regular non-conference opponents. Fresno State is notches above most other opponents Rutgers has faced and the Scarlet Knights might not know what is coming in this one. Sure they return a total of 15 starters from a team that went 8-5 SU last season and 6-6 ATS but something tells me that they are going to have a bit of an off year after the departure of the best running back this team has ever seen (Ray Rice is gonzo and that is going to hurt). Not only did RB Ray Rice control most of this offense but he is the reason it worked and he was responsible for 2012 rushing yards in 2008 and 25 total touchdowns. So to say that replacing him is easy or can be done would be quite the assumption and incorrect statement. Sure there are other RB's on this team that saw some playing time last season but none possess the power and speed of Rice who is know making some dough in the NFL. Rutgers was only 2-3 ATS last season in home games as the favorite and I don't like their chances of blowing away the Bulldogs here. Fresno State is not the best defensive team in the Nation and they did allow 27.0 points per game last season but that was decent considering they returned only 3 starters in 2007 and now they return some of their top stars and return 7 starters on that side of the ball. This defense should resemble their defense of the 2004 season. Even with Ray Rice in the lineup I always thought this team was a bit overrated and their performances against Cincinnati and Maryland (early in the season in 2007) pretty proved my point. QB Mike Teel is not all that and if it wasn't for Rice's running abilities and threats to opposing defenses, Teel woulda been in a lot more trouble than he was with his 34 career touchdown passes to go along with his 36 career interceptions which is pathetic. Fresno State should get enough pressure on Teel to force him into his typical mistakes and I have no concerns with the way this defense is going to play. I know this is the home opener but Rutgers lost a huge piece of their heart and without a pulse it won't be easy to win games like this one.
This is a great chance for bettors to cash in on Fresno State before the world realizes that this is a pretty good team. They have not been ATS juggernauts the last few seasons like they had become in 2004 and 2005 but this is the place to start as this team is loaded with Seniors and ready to battle for the WAC Conference Title. Rutgers, although still a good team is heading the other way right now with the loss of Rice and it's going to take a bit of time for them to get the engines running and Rice replaced (which I don't think is really possible). Yes the lines are strong on both sides for this team but Fresno State is a load to handle and this team is going to come at them with everything they have under the hat of Pat Hill tricks. If the Bulldogs want any chances the BCS Bid for a Bowl they have to kick things off with an upset in this game and they have to win road games like this (something Boise State has trademarked in their attempts to reach the BCS). I don't have any confidence in QB Mike Teel for Rutgers and I think this Fresno State defense is actually going to surprise some people in this game. The difference for me here is the Bulldogs offense and even though Rutgers will make some big stops, it won't be enough to avoid the upset as the Bulldogs win this one in the second half.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Fresno State 24, Rutgers 22
Tennessee Volunteers -7 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Volunteers know they cannot afford to come into this game they way they came into the West Coast last season when they walked into Cal and got their asses handed to them 45-31. Sure that was a game that pretty much changed their season as they went on to a 10-4 record and beat Wisconsin 21-17 in the Outback Bowl to cap it all off as a -1 favorite but the bottom line is that Phillip Fulmer has warned his guys that if they do not perform in this game, they can forget about ever winning the SEC. Some have called this the year for Tennessee if Jonathan Crompton can pickup where Erik Ainge leftoff and I do agree with that to some point. The Vols are coming off that decent season despite winning more games than they should have but they did go 8-4-2 ATS in 2007 and they do return enough starters on both sides of the ball to make me think they can win this game big for a change. Tennessee is 12-2 SU in their last 14 season opening games with both losses coming to teams from the PAC 10 but once again the players are well aware of the problems some of the PAC 10 teams have caused them over the years and they should come out with fire in their eyes for this one. Ainge is gone and RB Arian Foster might not play but this offense is still as powerful as it gets with the teams top three receivers back for another season and with quite an impressive crop of RB's available to play in this game that saw time last season and that are waiting to breakout. Crompton is a bit of a concern because he didn't play much last season and he is raw but he has played in 14 career games for Tennessee and has been decent. It won't take long for Fulmer to take him out if things are not working well. You havce to expect Tennessee to run, run, run the ball in this game because UCLA is returning only 4 starters on defense this season and that is from a team that allowed 22.3 points per game last season with a whopping 10 starters returning on defense. No such luck this time around. This defense is probably going to resemble the defense that they put out there in 2005 when they allowed 34.2 points per game and struggled big time. If you can't get things done in a new system against the type of offense Tennessee brings to the table, you are not going to beat these guys and you are not going to make this a game. I think Tennessee is too well prepared for this game and I think the Vols are going to blow the socks off the Bruins in this game. Just watch and learn.
The UCLA Bruins are a team I used to make huge cash on when betting on them in the right spots but with the arrival of Rick Neuheisel as their head coach, the good times are done and it's time to continue fading this team. I know the Bruins had some decent showings in the 2007 season but I have a bad feeling they are going to continue struggling and it will be another few years before we can actually bet on this team with confidence. The key to success on betting the UCLA Bruins was backing them when they were home underdogs because Karl Dorrell was 4-0 ATS in his tenure here when his team was the underdog at the Rose Bowl and I was ready to unload on them here had he still been around. Unfortunately he is now gone and it's time re-adjust the theory. UCLA is returning a total of only 9 starters on this team and I don't have much confidence that they can compete better than they did in 2007 when they went 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS. UCLA looked decent in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2007 where they were +6 point underdogs and lost 17-16 to BYU. Pretty much every position on this team is a big fat question mark because they have been plagued with injuries and have struggled to keep guys healthy. UCLA has always been a very good home opening team to bet on because they have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 home openers but there comes a time for everything to change and they are going to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one. Sure scoring points on Tennessee is not that tough and the Bruins will score some points in this game but they return only 4 starters on offense this season so their 22.4 points per game last season is going to go down as they had 10 returning starters that year. Tennesse did allow 27.3 points per game defensively last season but I think they are going to be much tougher this season with the schedule they have and even though they have only 6 returning starters (most since 2005 so its not that bad), I think they can completely shutdown the Bruins in this game. I want to keep reminding you guys that winning is a must for Tennessee in this game while UCLA will be glad to compete. I just don't see how this offense is going to make a mark against an SEC defense that is going to be ready and that returns all their top rushers from last season. They also return some of their top defensive backs and the only way the Bruins can have success is if they find a way to control the clock and run the ball down Tennessee's throats. Not happening in this game if you ask me.
So to keep things in perspective here, yes I am betting on yet another road team for this Monday but you have to think of the way things are going for these two teams. Tennessee is in no way or shape losing this game tonight and UCLA is trying to make things work under a new head coach. Dorrell's departure looked like it was going to work in the Bowl Game as UCLA managed to play well against BYU and almost win that game but again Tennessee comes into this game with a huge win on their minds after their embarassing start to the 2007 season against Cal just one year ago. This game is on primetime television and the public is all over the Vols here but I am not falling for that crap that the public is going to get screwed because I strongly believe that this line is perfect and I really believe Tennessee can turn this thing into a complte blowout if they play all their cards right. The era of home underdog ATS covers (UCLA has not lost ATS as a home underdog since 2002) has come to an end and now for the first time since that season, we are going to have a team come in here and blowout the Bruins like they were supposed to according to oddsmakers. No time to mess around here guys, take the better team and pound them hard. Vols are gonna kick some ass.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus non-conference opponents.
Tennessee 41, UCLA 17
GOOD LUCK!
:toast:
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