MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 2-3 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Most of you know by now that I did not have a good regular season in College Football. All the money I made in the NFL, pretty much went down the drain in CFB. I finished 42-40-1 ATS (-292.80 Units) on the year losing a lot of money while hitting just above 50% of my plays. That is two consecutive losing regular seasons and I'm not too sure what I am doing wrong apart from bad money management and bad choice of big plays. Too many cappers talk smack and claim that 'The Bowl Season is where I make my money' so I'm not going to B.S. you and tell you that I will do any better in the Bowl Season than the regular season. I will tell you however that I tend to have a good read no things at this time of the year and have been making a killing in the NFL the entire season. I will be betting some of that NFL cash on all Bowl Games and my goal is to hit 65% or 100 Units in Bowl Games.
Once again, my goal is to hit the 100 unit mark or hit 65% of my Bowl Game plays.
1 Unit = $100
Dec 20: 2-2 ATS (+18.50 Units)
Dec 21: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Dec 23: Pending
You can tail, fade or admire my plays. The bottom line is we are all trying to make money here, we all post for free and try to help others. Peace.
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The TCU Horned Frogs are a much better team than they get credit and I'm telling you right now to be ready for some impressive football. We are talking about a team that went 10-2 SU on the season and that cashed in for bettors pretty much all year with their 8-3 ATS mark in those games. Yes the Horned Frogs have two losses on the season but those loses came against a) Oklahoma who is playing for the BCS Championship Game and will probably win and b) Utah who are playing in a BCS Bowl Game against Alabama in a few weeks. So had they not had to play against two of the top five teams in the Country, this team would be undefeated. It's not like they got blown out by Utah...I mean they were on the road and they lost by only 3 points. The Oklahoma game was more of a blowout as the defense allowed 35 points and the Frogs lost by 25. Other than that this team has been perfect all season and they have not allowed more than 14 points in any game this season apart from the Oklahoma game. They beat a very good BYU team by 25 points, they beat Stanford by 17 points and they beat most of their other opponents by at least 23 points each time. So there is no doubt in anybody's mind that this team can not only score but they can play some serious defense and that is good enough for me to back them in this spot. Texas Christian comes into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on a whopping 452.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. Boise State can do just the same on offense, if not better, but I don't trust their defense one bit in this game as they have allowed 18.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 335.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.5 yards per play which is not too bad but could be a problem against this TCU offense. I say that because on the ground the Horned Frogs have run for 211.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.4 yards per carry ni those games. Boise State has been solid against the run for the most part of the season but they have allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.1 yards per carry in those games. How many teams in the Country apart from TCU can say they have 5 players with 380+ yards rushing on their team? None. In the air, QB Andy Dalton has completed 57.0% of his passes the last three games for 7.8 yards per pass attempt in those games. The only concern I would have is that he has been sacked 8 times in those three games and thrown 2 interceptions but that's how this offense works really. Boise State won't give them much in terms of passing tonight having allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and having allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 48.7% of their passes in those games. The Broncos have 6 sacks in their last three games and have come down with 4 interceptions which goes to show how important it is for TCU to stick to their running game tonight. What you have to love about the Horned Frogs and betting on them in a big game is that they have fumbled the ball a grand total of 0 times in their last two games and that's on a total of 143 carries by the team. It's also important to note that the Broncos, despite their solid defensive play, have not recovered a single fumble in their last three games and they are just not being aggressive enough with their tackling. That's as impressive as it gets but what they do need to work on is boneheaded penalties that has cost them quite a bit the last three games. The Frogs are taking 8.7 penalties per game in their last three games and that just won't work against a team like Boise State. You can't really argue about a team that is averaging 19.3 points scored per first half in their last three games and Boise State has allowed 7.7 points per first half in their last three games. I think TCU can control the ball on the ground and keep the Boise State offense off the field for the most part of this game. The Frogs have been very effective when it comes to sustaining long time consuming drives that keep other offenses off the field and that usually result in touchdowns and not field goals. Any team that can keep the Broncos offense off the field for periods of time is going to have a chance to beat them. The Frogs are a very good team and everyone is about to find that out tonight.
The Boise State Broncos are a damn good team and no matter what anybody says it's always scary to bet against them on the ATS front. If you don't believe me all you have to do is look at their perfect 12-0 SU record on the season that has also resulted in a 7-3-1 ATS record in those games. You would think that most of those ATS wins have come at home where they play on that blue turf and where opponents have no clue what they are doing but the Broncos were only 2-2 ATS at home this season compared to a whopping 5-1 ATS away from home. They were also a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing no a grass surface this season but that doesn't mean much because TCU was 8-1 ATS when playing on a grassy surface. The tendency would be to bet on the team that is coming off a blowout 51 point win over rivals Fresno State the way Boise State just did but their level of opposition this season was mediocre at best and this is by far the best defense the Broncos are going to have seen all season. QB Kellen Moore is only a freshman and although he looked great for the most part of the season making only a few mistakes here and there, the jitters of playing in his first Bowl Game are going to be a problem. Things would be a lot different if Boise State was the favorite but as the underdog the pressure is that much higher and I don't think Moore is going to live up to the hype in this one. The Boise State Broncos come into this game averaging a crazy 49.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have managed to get that done on 501.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and 7.3 yards per play. How are they underdogs again? I know why...that's because TCU has one of the best defensive units in all of college football having allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games and allowing only 203.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.7 yards per play in those games. That's pretty damn good. I already mentioned that TCU has allowed more than 14 points in a game only once this season. On the ground, Boise State relies heavily on their rushing attacked led by RB Ian Johnson who knows a thing or two about winning Bowl Games and they have averaged 210.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 6.4 yards per carry in those games. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! TCU has the best run defense in college football and they have allowed only 47.7 rushing yards per game this season despite allowing 100.7 per game in their last three games. That means the Broncos will probably have to rely solely on Kellen Moore to get the job done and although I think he is a very good QB, I don't know that he is ready for this kind of defense. Moore has completed 65.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. I don't expect Boise to have success running their usual spread offense and I say that because TCU's defense is just as good against the pass as they are against the run and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 47.9% of their passes in those games for only 4.3 yards per pass attempt which takes away the Broncos big play abilities. Unlike other top notch defenses, the Frogs don't come at you with a ton of blitz packages. They set up a bit differently than other teams and like to bait opposing QB's into bad throws and open looks that are not really all that open. TCU has not been forcing all that many turnovers as of late as they have only 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games but that doesn't concern me because stopping the Broncos and forcing punts all night means a lot more to me and to my capping than forcing turnovers. Boise State does not take as many penalties as TCU and that could help them stay focused in this game but the TCU defense is bound to have these guys a little bit frustrated and taking more penalties than usual. Much like the Horned Frogs, Boise State is a team that likes to score a lot and they like to score early as the Broncos average 18.0 points per first half in their last three games. That however will probably come to and end in this game and I say that because TCU has allowed only 5.3 points per first half in their last three games and if the Frogs can frustrate Moore and this offense early in the game, they are going to have an easier time putting their own points up on the board. I think TCU's defense makes quite the statement in this game tonight...they have to as owners of all the top defensive unit tags they currently hold.
These two teams are just as good as one another which is why we could be in for the best Bowl Game of them all, right here, right now. Boise State has the big name and a lot of people are going to bet on them here based on what they have done in past Bowl Games and based on how impressive they have been at times this season but TCU plays a lot tougher opponents year in and year out and they are a very tough team to beat. This is a rematch of the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl that Boise State ended up winning 34-31 and for anyone who thinks this game is going to be any less intense, you have another thing coming. We are going to see, big time defense, big time plays and some real trickery left and right with these two teams. TCU's only two losses were against teams playing in BCS Bowl Games (Oklahoma and Utah). Believe me when I say that Boise State is not BCS worthy or caliber and this should be a game TCU can really control. I hope you guys see what I'm talking about here. Why in the world would a team that is 12-0 SU on the season be a three point underdog against a team with 2 losses? Ridiculous and obvious that Vegas wants you on Boise State. You have to understand that TCU has always been a good bet in Bowl Games as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games. They have covered the spread in 25 of their last 34 games as the favorite and have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 non-conference games. Boise State on the other hand is also a decent team to bet on most of the time but I am staying away from them in this game and going with the team that has the least pressure on them. FROGS TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: TCU is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
TCU 27, Boise State 17
:toast:
It's almost time for the important Bowl Games and I am ready to bare down. I am on fire in the NFL but my main concern right now is cashing in on these Bowl Games heading into the BCS Bowls. I wish all of you reading for the last time a very Merry Christmas to you and yours and Happy Holidays. Let's win some money, good luck!
Most of you know by now that I did not have a good regular season in College Football. All the money I made in the NFL, pretty much went down the drain in CFB. I finished 42-40-1 ATS (-292.80 Units) on the year losing a lot of money while hitting just above 50% of my plays. That is two consecutive losing regular seasons and I'm not too sure what I am doing wrong apart from bad money management and bad choice of big plays. Too many cappers talk smack and claim that 'The Bowl Season is where I make my money' so I'm not going to B.S. you and tell you that I will do any better in the Bowl Season than the regular season. I will tell you however that I tend to have a good read no things at this time of the year and have been making a killing in the NFL the entire season. I will be betting some of that NFL cash on all Bowl Games and my goal is to hit 65% or 100 Units in Bowl Games.
Once again, my goal is to hit the 100 unit mark or hit 65% of my Bowl Game plays.
1 Unit = $100
Dec 20: 2-2 ATS (+18.50 Units)
Dec 21: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Dec 23: Pending
You can tail, fade or admire my plays. The bottom line is we are all trying to make money here, we all post for free and try to help others. Peace.
-------------------------------------------------------
The TCU Horned Frogs are a much better team than they get credit and I'm telling you right now to be ready for some impressive football. We are talking about a team that went 10-2 SU on the season and that cashed in for bettors pretty much all year with their 8-3 ATS mark in those games. Yes the Horned Frogs have two losses on the season but those loses came against a) Oklahoma who is playing for the BCS Championship Game and will probably win and b) Utah who are playing in a BCS Bowl Game against Alabama in a few weeks. So had they not had to play against two of the top five teams in the Country, this team would be undefeated. It's not like they got blown out by Utah...I mean they were on the road and they lost by only 3 points. The Oklahoma game was more of a blowout as the defense allowed 35 points and the Frogs lost by 25. Other than that this team has been perfect all season and they have not allowed more than 14 points in any game this season apart from the Oklahoma game. They beat a very good BYU team by 25 points, they beat Stanford by 17 points and they beat most of their other opponents by at least 23 points each time. So there is no doubt in anybody's mind that this team can not only score but they can play some serious defense and that is good enough for me to back them in this spot. Texas Christian comes into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on a whopping 452.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. Boise State can do just the same on offense, if not better, but I don't trust their defense one bit in this game as they have allowed 18.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 335.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.5 yards per play which is not too bad but could be a problem against this TCU offense. I say that because on the ground the Horned Frogs have run for 211.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.4 yards per carry ni those games. Boise State has been solid against the run for the most part of the season but they have allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.1 yards per carry in those games. How many teams in the Country apart from TCU can say they have 5 players with 380+ yards rushing on their team? None. In the air, QB Andy Dalton has completed 57.0% of his passes the last three games for 7.8 yards per pass attempt in those games. The only concern I would have is that he has been sacked 8 times in those three games and thrown 2 interceptions but that's how this offense works really. Boise State won't give them much in terms of passing tonight having allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and having allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 48.7% of their passes in those games. The Broncos have 6 sacks in their last three games and have come down with 4 interceptions which goes to show how important it is for TCU to stick to their running game tonight. What you have to love about the Horned Frogs and betting on them in a big game is that they have fumbled the ball a grand total of 0 times in their last two games and that's on a total of 143 carries by the team. It's also important to note that the Broncos, despite their solid defensive play, have not recovered a single fumble in their last three games and they are just not being aggressive enough with their tackling. That's as impressive as it gets but what they do need to work on is boneheaded penalties that has cost them quite a bit the last three games. The Frogs are taking 8.7 penalties per game in their last three games and that just won't work against a team like Boise State. You can't really argue about a team that is averaging 19.3 points scored per first half in their last three games and Boise State has allowed 7.7 points per first half in their last three games. I think TCU can control the ball on the ground and keep the Boise State offense off the field for the most part of this game. The Frogs have been very effective when it comes to sustaining long time consuming drives that keep other offenses off the field and that usually result in touchdowns and not field goals. Any team that can keep the Broncos offense off the field for periods of time is going to have a chance to beat them. The Frogs are a very good team and everyone is about to find that out tonight.
The Boise State Broncos are a damn good team and no matter what anybody says it's always scary to bet against them on the ATS front. If you don't believe me all you have to do is look at their perfect 12-0 SU record on the season that has also resulted in a 7-3-1 ATS record in those games. You would think that most of those ATS wins have come at home where they play on that blue turf and where opponents have no clue what they are doing but the Broncos were only 2-2 ATS at home this season compared to a whopping 5-1 ATS away from home. They were also a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing no a grass surface this season but that doesn't mean much because TCU was 8-1 ATS when playing on a grassy surface. The tendency would be to bet on the team that is coming off a blowout 51 point win over rivals Fresno State the way Boise State just did but their level of opposition this season was mediocre at best and this is by far the best defense the Broncos are going to have seen all season. QB Kellen Moore is only a freshman and although he looked great for the most part of the season making only a few mistakes here and there, the jitters of playing in his first Bowl Game are going to be a problem. Things would be a lot different if Boise State was the favorite but as the underdog the pressure is that much higher and I don't think Moore is going to live up to the hype in this one. The Boise State Broncos come into this game averaging a crazy 49.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have managed to get that done on 501.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and 7.3 yards per play. How are they underdogs again? I know why...that's because TCU has one of the best defensive units in all of college football having allowed only 12.3 points per game in their last three games and allowing only 203.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.7 yards per play in those games. That's pretty damn good. I already mentioned that TCU has allowed more than 14 points in a game only once this season. On the ground, Boise State relies heavily on their rushing attacked led by RB Ian Johnson who knows a thing or two about winning Bowl Games and they have averaged 210.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 6.4 yards per carry in those games. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! TCU has the best run defense in college football and they have allowed only 47.7 rushing yards per game this season despite allowing 100.7 per game in their last three games. That means the Broncos will probably have to rely solely on Kellen Moore to get the job done and although I think he is a very good QB, I don't know that he is ready for this kind of defense. Moore has completed 65.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. I don't expect Boise to have success running their usual spread offense and I say that because TCU's defense is just as good against the pass as they are against the run and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 47.9% of their passes in those games for only 4.3 yards per pass attempt which takes away the Broncos big play abilities. Unlike other top notch defenses, the Frogs don't come at you with a ton of blitz packages. They set up a bit differently than other teams and like to bait opposing QB's into bad throws and open looks that are not really all that open. TCU has not been forcing all that many turnovers as of late as they have only 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games but that doesn't concern me because stopping the Broncos and forcing punts all night means a lot more to me and to my capping than forcing turnovers. Boise State does not take as many penalties as TCU and that could help them stay focused in this game but the TCU defense is bound to have these guys a little bit frustrated and taking more penalties than usual. Much like the Horned Frogs, Boise State is a team that likes to score a lot and they like to score early as the Broncos average 18.0 points per first half in their last three games. That however will probably come to and end in this game and I say that because TCU has allowed only 5.3 points per first half in their last three games and if the Frogs can frustrate Moore and this offense early in the game, they are going to have an easier time putting their own points up on the board. I think TCU's defense makes quite the statement in this game tonight...they have to as owners of all the top defensive unit tags they currently hold.
These two teams are just as good as one another which is why we could be in for the best Bowl Game of them all, right here, right now. Boise State has the big name and a lot of people are going to bet on them here based on what they have done in past Bowl Games and based on how impressive they have been at times this season but TCU plays a lot tougher opponents year in and year out and they are a very tough team to beat. This is a rematch of the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl that Boise State ended up winning 34-31 and for anyone who thinks this game is going to be any less intense, you have another thing coming. We are going to see, big time defense, big time plays and some real trickery left and right with these two teams. TCU's only two losses were against teams playing in BCS Bowl Games (Oklahoma and Utah). Believe me when I say that Boise State is not BCS worthy or caliber and this should be a game TCU can really control. I hope you guys see what I'm talking about here. Why in the world would a team that is 12-0 SU on the season be a three point underdog against a team with 2 losses? Ridiculous and obvious that Vegas wants you on Boise State. You have to understand that TCU has always been a good bet in Bowl Games as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games. They have covered the spread in 25 of their last 34 games as the favorite and have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 non-conference games. Boise State on the other hand is also a decent team to bet on most of the time but I am staying away from them in this game and going with the team that has the least pressure on them. FROGS TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: TCU is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
TCU 27, Boise State 17
:toast:
It's almost time for the important Bowl Games and I am ready to bare down. I am on fire in the NFL but my main concern right now is cashing in on these Bowl Games heading into the BCS Bowls. I wish all of you reading for the last time a very Merry Christmas to you and yours and Happy Holidays. Let's win some money, good luck!
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