MistaFlava's CFB Football Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2011 College Football Record: 5-2 (+43.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2011 College Football ATS: 2-0 (+35.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2011 College Football O/U: 3-2 (+8.00 Units)


It's been a crazy couple of years since my immense success back in 2004 and 2005 and although I think I've grown as a capper, my record the last few years doesn't really show it and it's been a tough time. Having said that, I'm approaching 2011 like I never have before and spend a lot of time analyzing successful handicappers over the course of the last few seasons. I'm not going to bet on as many games as I have in the past and will instead concentrate on what we have in front of us. Wish me luck this season.


2011 Recap

Week 1: 5-2 (+43.00 Units)
Week 2: Pending...



Feel free to chime in with thoughts, well wishes, bashes, whatever you want. I'm always open for discussion. I no longer have my Twitter account but should have a brand new one up in no time. GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS SEASON!

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Thursday, September 10


Iowa-Iowa State 'UNDER' 43.5 (10 Units)

I've watched quite a few Iowa-Iowa State rivalry games over the course of the years and what I can remember is bad football. It's not so much that the games have featured good defense but it's more of a case that both teams seem to have a conservative approach in this yearly meeting and it has been a good UNDER bet over the course of the years. No reason for that trend to change this year. Another angle to consider is that Iowa has Pitt at home next weekend while Iowa State go to Connecticut (not a significant game) which leads me to believe the Cyclones could keep this game close with a much more invested interest in this game. Iowa kicked off the season with a 34-7 home win over Tennessee Tech last weekend while Northern Iowa barely beat Northern Iowa at home in a 20-19 barn burner. My beef with the points in this game is two brutal offenses suffering big losses from 2010. It's not like Iowa State blew away opponents with their 21.7 points per game in 2010 but they return only 5 starters on offense. Iowa scored 28.9 points per game in 2010 but all their offensive stars are gone and they return only 5 starters. The last time Iowa returned less than 6 starters on offense was in 2007 and they managed only 18.5 points per game that year.

Let's start with Iowa in this one. Gone are RB Adam Robinson (941 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns in 2010), QB Ricki Stanzi (3rd all-time on Iowa passing list) and 4 of the Hawkeyes top 5 Receivers from 2010 who combined for 15 receiving touchdowns last season more than 1700 receiving yards. Also out for this game is All-American Freshman (two years ago) RG Nolan MacMillan. Iowa State's defense allowed 28.8 points per game in 2010 but they return 8 of their top 11 tacklers and return 7 starters. Defensive Coordinator Wally Burnham has his best unit yet and he led the Cyclones to the #2 Red Zone defense in the Nation in 2010 so even if they allow some yards, they should hold to Field Goals with so much experience. Their run defense was suspect in the opener but they held Northern Iowa to a 46.% pass completion rate and allowed only 181.0 passing yards. On the offensive side of things, Iowa State loses their #2 All-Time QB Austen Arnaud, RB Alexander Robinson (946 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns in 2010) and also gone are 3 of the top 4 receivers who combined to catch 8 of the team's 14 touchdown passes. This is pretty much a rookie offense who have to face an Iowa defense that lose 8 of their top 11 tacklers but who have a plethora of guys lined up to takeover. The Hawkeyes have not allowed more than 20 points per game in any of their last four season regardless of how starters returned on defense. Iowa has a tremendous secondary and very good incoming class of guys on defense so I really don't see Iowa State scoring more than a few field goals in this one while keeping the game close.

Check the stats books guys...this game almost always goes UNDER. The last time the game went OVER was back in 2003 and we are on a streak of 7 straight UNDER bets when Iowa and Iowa State get together. In those 7 games, only one time did the points total finish above the listed 43.5 total for today's game and now that both offense suffer huge losses and both defenses return a bunch of guys, you have to go with the UNDER here. In the last three meetings Iowa held Iowa State to 15 points total (three games combined) and 301.0 yards per game. The Cyclones have scored 1 touchdown in the last 17 quarters of this series and honestly, I don't know that they have one in them this weekend. The UNDER is 7-1 in Iowa's last 8 games versus Big 12 Conference opponents and 17-5-1 in their last 23 September games. The UNDER is also 15-5-2 in their last 22 non-conference games and they play against an Iowa State team that has seen 6 straight UNDER bets hit when they play in September. The UNDER is also 7-0 in Iowa State's last seven games versus Big Ten Conference opponents and has hit in 11 of their last 14 home games. I say this is another dirty game with no points scored. Both teams have very good long range kickers and they won't hesitate to use them here.

Trend of the Game: UNDER is 17-5-1 in Iowa's last 23 September games.


Iowa State 12, Iowa 10





more to come...

 

[jobu]

Flava,
Being an Iowa native and having won betting the under the last three years (not posted here, but no reason to deceive), I agree. The score will be different than predicted, as Iowa will put up 28 on the clones, and I will be surprised to see ISU get 10-14. The other reason why the under is always good with this is Iowa's OC, Ken O'Keefe. As you mentioned, he is conservative as they come, especially when a huge lead has been built (look at stats from Iowa's games last year with ISU, PSU, and Sparty). In each of those games, I think Iowa only scored 7 points after half when they had comfortable leads. Iowa could put up big numbers early, as i think Vandenberg is a better QB than Stanzi (more accurate and stronger arm), with a good receiving corps. also, coker is not a downgrade to Robinson.
good luck this weekend, and good start to the season.

 

[indiana]

M.Flava............

thank you..........BOL with all your action this week

indy

 

[MistaFlava]

Flava,
Being an Iowa native and having won betting the under the last three years (not posted here, but no reason to deceive), I agree. The score will be different than predicted, as Iowa will put up 28 on the clones, and I will be surprised to see ISU get 10-14. The other reason why the under is always good with this is Iowa's OC, Ken O'Keefe. As you mentioned, he is conservative as they come, especially when a huge lead has been built (look at stats from Iowa's games last year with ISU, PSU, and Sparty). In each of those games, I think Iowa only scored 7 points after half when they had comfortable leads. Iowa could put up big numbers early, as i think Vandenberg is a better QB than Stanzi (more accurate and stronger arm), with a good receiving corps. also, coker is not a downgrade to Robinson.
good luck this weekend, and good start to the season.

thanks for the info Jobu, good stuff and glad you agree on the UNDER! GL

 

[MistaFlava]

***CORRECTION***

Game is being played on Saturday, September 10 and not Thursday, September 1 as listed above. I forgot to change it. Mods if you by chance read this, please make the change in the original post.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Saturday, September 10


Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5 (10 Units)

Not my cup of tea to jump on a spread that is right above or below a natural scoreline in football but it's also not my cup of tea to buy points. I just don't do it. If I have to buy a point it's because I don't like the play enough and probably shouldn't be betting on it. Having said that, Auburn looked awful in their first game of the 2011 Championship Defending season and as of right now they look to be heading in the same direction as the 2009 defending Champion Texas team (5-7 SU the following season. The Tigers overcame the loss of almost their entire defense from 2010 and managed to win the game. That's nice but it doesn't fix the issue. What you have to understand about Auburn is that they won the National Championship by scoring points mostly and their defense, although very good and effective last year, did allow 24.1 points per game last season. Now they are all gone and that's tough to handle. Mississippi State looked great in their 59-14 season opening win over a pathetic Memphis team but they have LSU next week and at this point in the early season, LSU looks like the bigger concern for the #17 ranked Bulldogs. A bit of a look ahead concern but Auburn stole Cam Newton away from Mississippi State so this will always be a rivalry game from now on. Today we have a battle of 3rd year coaches in Dan Mullen and Gene Chizik. I still think Mississippi State shows up to win and they are 4-0 ATS as an away favorite in the Dan Mullen era but Chizik counters with a 2-0 ATS record as a home underdog for Auburn and you might remember his home wins over #24 Mississippi State in 2009 and his spread cover against #2 Alabama to close out that same 2009 season. Great game we have on hand.

Shootout or shutout? This is going one of either two ways (obviously) and right now I'm leaning towards lower scoring than we may think but with these offenses, it's questionable. Like I said before, Auburn allowed 24.0 points per game in 2010 and still won the Championship but they return only 3 starters on that side of the ball. Take one look at this Bulldogs offense. They averaged 29.0 points per game in 2010 and return just about all their starters on offense including all 27 rushing touchdowns, QB Chris Relf with his 13 passing touchdowns (backup QB Tyler Russell is one of the best in the Country and is back as well with this 5 touchdowns passes last season) and 16 of the touchdown receptions from last season are back as well. That super offense put together 645.0 total yards of offense in Week 1 on 9.3 yards per play. Excuse me? Was that an FCS game or what? Now they take on an Auburn defense that played at home last week but allowed 38.0 points and allowed 448.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. They got killed on the ground for 227.0 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. With Josh Bynes, Nick Fairley, Desmond Washington and Antoine Carter gone, this run defense is terrible and Mississippi State ran for 309.0 yards in their opener on 8.1 yards per carry. Auburn had 1 sack, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles in their first game. Now as for the Tigers on offense, they looked good and all and did average 6.7 yards per play in their opener but the only way they stay in this game is if the experienced ground game rolls and in their first game, it was a bust with the young offensive line. 30 runs, 78 rushing yards, 2.6 yards per carry. WTF? It has to get better right? I think so at least because the Bulldogs lost both Chris White and Pernell McPhee (their two best run defenders last year).

On that note, the Bulldogs defense is still very experienced. They had 2 sacks, 1 interception and recovered 2 fumbles last week in the road win over Memphis. Auburn did not make any mistakes on offense which is surprising for such a young team but the mistakes are coming. QB Barrett Trottier was sacked twice, his offensive line has all sorts of problems and the Tigers took 7 penalties worth 60 yards. As good as Trotter looked in the passing game, Mississippi State allowed only 4.3 yards per pass attempt and won't allow big plays with this secondary. I hesitate to go really big on this play because it's the SEC and anything can happen seeing how Mississippi State is 0-11 SU in their last 11 SEC openers but the visiting team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. Auburn has dominated this series for a while now winning 9 of the last 10 meetings but their run defense is screwed here and I don't think they can overcome it. Auburn is 0-5 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they allow 200+ rushing yards. Don't forget Mississippi State is riding a serious high right now. They destroyed Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl, they are 4-0 ATS lifetime as a road favorite under Dan Mullen and they are one of the most experienced teams in the SEC this season. If their eyes are on this game and this game only, this spread is not a problem for the Bulldogs. Their run game is too much for Auburn's young defense and the only reason I grade this so high scoring is because Auburn's veteran RB's are bound to bounce back and get some yards in this one and the Tigers won't just go away although they do really remind me of the 2010 Texas Longhorn defending Champions. Enough said.

Trend of the Game: Dan Mullen is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite as Head Coach of Mississippi State.


Mississippi State 38, Auburn 24





more to come...

 

[Well-Seasoned]

adding...



Saturday, September 10


Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5 (10 Units)

Not my cup of tea to jump on a spread that is right above or below a natural scoreline in football but it's also not my cup of tea to buy points. I just don't do it. If I have to buy a point it's because I don't like the play enough and probably shouldn't be betting on it. Having said that, Auburn looked awful in their first game of the 2011 Championship Defending season and as of right now they look to be heading in the same direction as the 2009 defending Champion Texas team (5-7 SU the following season. The Tigers overcame the loss of almost their entire defense from 2010 and managed to win the game. That's nice but it doesn't fix the issue. What you have to understand about Auburn is that they won the National Championship by scoring points mostly and their defense, although very good and effective last year, did allow 24.1 points per game last season. Now they are all gone and that's tough to handle. Mississippi State looked great in their 59-14 season opening win over a pathetic Memphis team but they have LSU next week and at this point in the early season, LSU looks like the bigger concern for the #17 ranked Bulldogs. A bit of a look ahead concern but Auburn stole Cam Newton away from Mississippi State so this will always be a rivalry game from now on. Today we have a battle of 3rd year coaches in Dan Mullen and Gene Chizik. I still think Mississippi State shows up to win and they are 4-0 ATS as an away favorite in the Dan Mullen era but Chizik counters with a 2-0 ATS record as a home underdog for Auburn and you might remember his home wins over #24 Mississippi State in 2009 and his spread cover against #2 Alabama to close out that same 2009 season. Great game we have on hand.

Shootout or shutout? This is going one of either two ways (obviously) and right now I'm leaning towards lower scoring than we may think but with these offenses, it's questionable. Like I said before, Auburn allowed 24.0 points per game in 2010 and still won the Championship but they return only 3 starters on that side of the ball. Take one look at this Bulldogs offense. They averaged 29.0 points per game in 2010 and return just about all their starters on offense including all 27 rushing touchdowns, QB Chris Relf with his 13 passing touchdowns (backup QB Tyler Russell is one of the best in the Country and is back as well with this 5 touchdowns passes last season) and 16 of the touchdown receptions from last season are back as well. That super offense put together 645.0 total yards of offense in Week 1 on 9.3 yards per play. Excuse me? Was that an FCS game or what? Now they take on an Auburn defense that played at home last week but allowed 38.0 points and allowed 448.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. They got killed on the ground for 227.0 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. With Josh Bynes, Nick Fairley, Desmond Washington and Antoine Carter gone, this run defense is terrible and Mississippi State ran for 309.0 yards in their opener on 8.1 yards per carry. Auburn had 1 sack, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles in their first game. Now as for the Tigers on offense, they looked good and all and did average 6.7 yards per play in their opener but the only way they stay in this game is if the experienced ground game rolls and in their first game, it was a bust with the young offensive line. 30 runs, 78 rushing yards, 2.6 yards per carry. WTF? It has to get better right? I think so at least because the Bulldogs lost both Chris White and Pernell McPhee (their two best run defenders last year).

On that note, the Bulldogs defense is still very experienced. They had 2 sacks, 1 interception and recovered 2 fumbles last week in the road win over Memphis. Auburn did not make any mistakes on offense which is surprising for such a young team but the mistakes are coming. QB Barrett Trottier was sacked twice, his offensive line has all sorts of problems and the Tigers took 7 penalties worth 60 yards. As good as Trotter looked in the passing game, Mississippi State allowed only 4.3 yards per pass attempt and won't allow big plays with this secondary. I hesitate to go really big on this play because it's the SEC and anything can happen seeing how Mississippi State is 0-11 SU in their last 11 SEC openers but the visiting team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. Auburn has dominated this series for a while now winning 9 of the last 10 meetings but their run defense is screwed here and I don't think they can overcome it. Auburn is 0-5 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they allow 200+ rushing yards. Don't forget Mississippi State is riding a serious high right now. They destroyed Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl, they are 4-0 ATS lifetime as a road favorite under Dan Mullen and they are one of the most experienced teams in the SEC this season. If their eyes are on this game and this game only, this spread is not a problem for the Bulldogs. Their run game is too much for Auburn's young defense and the only reason I grade this so high scoring is because Auburn's veteran RB's are bound to bounce back and get some yards in this one and the Tigers won't just go away although they do really remind me of the 2010 Texas Longhorn defending Champions. Enough said.

Trend of the Game: Dan Mullen is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite as Head Coach of Mississippi State.


Mississippi State 38, Auburn 24





more to come...

Best of luck Flava. I got on Mississippi State -6.5 a few days ago. Auburn has owned them the last decade (9 out of the last 10) so I don't see how or why they would overlook this game, especially in a hostile environment such as Jordan-Hare. If they lose or don't cover it won't be because of a lookahead IMO. Plus, you bring up a good point about the Cam Newton saga making it even bigger. Best of luck and hopefully Miss. State wins by 7 or more for us.

 

[Duces]

Sorry to correct you but Texas did not win title in 2009. The were beaten by Alabama in title game.

 

[MistaFlava]

Right on. Well from Championship Game to chumps. I'm adding a 2-Pack for tonight, posting in a bit.

 

[MistaFlava]

Throwing in a couple for tonight. Was not going to touch these two games but had all day to go over this stuff and feel pretty good about it.


adding...



Friday, September 9


Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (10 Units)

We will probably have a low scoring game featuring two very decent defenses tonight and going with the UNDER is probably the best way to go but I remember losing twice last year going against Louisville as a home favorite and now that the newer and younger players have had a taste of what college football is like, I have to say I think they come out on top in this one. Sure the Cardinals scored only 21 points against Murray State and came nowhere near covering the 28.5 points as a favorite in their home and season opener last weekend but since joining the Big East Conference in 2005, Louisville is now 15-3 SU versus non-conference opponents at home. Florida International have one of their biggest games in program history tonight because they are featured on National TV and everyone knows who they are now coming off that 34-32 win over Toledo in the 2010 Little Ceasar's Bowl last year. They blew away North Texas last Thursday Night in the very first college football game of the 2010 season and they have 15 returning starters. I won't get too deep into what they can do because they went 1-2 ATS in non-conference away games last season, losing in blowouts at Maryland and Pitt. They are a talented team but this is not a good matchup.

The Panthers managed 401.0 total yards of offense in their season opener on 6.4 yards per play but now they have to face an experienced Louisville defense who allowed only 19.4 points per game in 2010 and were right back in business last week allowing only 9 points on 291.0 total yards of offense and 3.5 yards per play in that game. The Panthers have a tremendous backfield but they face matchup problems tonight and their offensive line is going to have a tough time stopping guys like LB Daniel Brown (great run stopper). Even though they managed 208.0 rushing yards last week on 5.2 yards per carry, the Cardinals allowed only 4.0 yards per carry last year and 2.9 yards per carry in their opener this year. The only way Florida International competes here is in the air. QB Wesley Carroll was pretty good last week throwing 1 touchdown pass and 0 interceptions but the Cardinals defense had 3 interceptions, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in their season opener and they are going to pressure Carroll all night long. The Cardinals offense lacks experience and it showed in their season opener with only 16 first downs and only 5.5 yards per play but they have a shot here against a Panthers secondary that lost 7 of their 14 interceptions in 2010. Cardinals RB Victor Anderson is a home run hitter, he will keep this defensive line honest all night and QB Will Stein has two years experience coming into this season and he played well in the opener. Louisville had 4 turnovers in their opener and as long as they can avoid those turnovers, they'll make some big plays and put more than 21 points on the board this time.

I will make some money on Florida International in 2011 but it won't be as an underdog and it won't be on the road. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Again not a good spot. The general rule of college football betting is if you like the underdog to cover, you better like them to win and I don't like Florida International who are 1-8 SU in road openers the last nine seasons with their only win over Youngstown State. Louisville was a bit of a mess at home last season but the Charlie Strong era is only going to get better and it started with the Bowl Game win over Southern Miss last season which now has this team on a three game win streak. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus Sun Belt Conference opponents and they have covered the spread in 31 of their last 42 non-conference games which is pretty incredible. As long as they stay away from the turnovers their defense is going to make enough big plays to keep them rolling to a fourth straight win and they should take this by at least 7-10 points in the end.

Trend of the Game: Louisville have covered the spread in 31 of their last 42 non-conference games.


Louisville 24, Florida International 13





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Friday, September 9


Missouri Tigers +10 (10 Units)

Finally waited and waited and waited and got the number I wanted. I've learned enough over the years to know that if you have patience, the right number will come to you and you don't need to buy points. Okay so Missouri looked a bit shady in their season opening win over Miami Ohio scoring only 17 points and failing to cover the -19.5 point spread but give them a break. They had to replace QB Blaine Gabbert who is highly touted in the NFL and Dave Yost (Missouri offensive coordinator) has a lot of experience developing quarterbacks and he's done a pretty damn good job in recent years. What you need to understand is the value the Tigers carry in this game going 5-0 SU in their last five road opening games (last five season) winning all those games by double digits. Not sure they can re-produce that feat of winning by DD on the road but they definitely have the tools to do it. Arizona State looked good scoring 48 points in their opener against UC Davis but they failed to cover the -37.5 point spread cover. A big disappointing to allow 14 points against UC Davis. The last time Arizona State hosted a non-conference BCS School was in 2008 and they lost to Georgia 27-10.

We are all very well aware that Arizona State has possibly one of the best defenses (on paper) in college football this year. They return 10 of their top 12 tacklers and all their big playmakers from the last few seasons and their run defense is definitely always top notch. Having said that, Arizona State is without LB Brandon Magee (#2 tackler last season) and CB Omar Bolden (#1 on team with Pass Breakups and Interceptions last season). Two huge losses right there. Missouri QB James Franklin played in 10 games last season and was decent in the opener (throwing and running for a touchdown) but the offense sputtered and managed only 4.6 yards per play on 291.0 total yards of offense. Not going to work against an Arizona State defense that allowed only 4.3 yards per play in their opener. Having said that the Sun Devils secondary allowed UC Davis' QB to completed 18 of 30 passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt and 0 interceptions. With Franklin the Tigers pose a big time dual threat because he can run better than he can pass (2 rushing touchdowns last season in 23 carries) and we should see even more from him tonight. Keep in mind though, this wager is not based on Missouri's offense. This is about their defense. Defensive Coordinator Dave Steckel has done the best he can with only 6 returning starters and apart from the 4.1 yards per carry the Tigers allowed in 2010, Missouri had gone some 5-6 seasons without allowing more than 4.0 yards per carry in a season. In their opener they allowed only 2.1 yards per carry and held Miami Ohio to 76 rushing yards on 36 carries. Arizona State ran the ball 40 times in their opener for 217.0 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry so you know what they want to do. They lost a 2534 yard passer in QB Steven Threet and I personally don't trust QB Brock Osweiler. The loss of the top two receivers from last year is huge and so is the fact that RT Aderious Simmons is out. The Tigers defense from one year ago is decimated to say the least with Ebner and Smith out but Missouri is going to be in Osweiler's face all night (they had three sacks in their opener) and they did force 2 turnovers in their season opener (forced three fumbles but recovered only one in the end). Even though they will probably allow some points in this one, the Tigers young defense will make some plays.

Both teams have significant injuries on both sides of the ball but the loss of Magee, Bolden and Simpson (WR) is probably more significant than the Tigers losing Ebner and Smith on defense. Sun Devil Stadium is a tough place to play for sure but Missouri is the toughest non-conference opponent to come play here since that #3 ranked Georgia team in 2008 and the Sun Devils lost that game pretty bad. Arizona State is used to winning here as an underdog (PAC 12 Conference Play) or blowing out opponents like Portland State and Northern Arizona in 2010. That would explain why they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Missouri has won five straight road openers by double digits at that and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games played in September over the course of the last three seasons. Neither team was impressive in their season opening wins but again there is a misperception out there of Arizona State at home and how good they are and that stems from the fact that they play so well against crappy teams and usually save their best for conference opponents. Not a good spot for Erickson and his guys. James Franklin struts his stuff tonight. Just watch.

Trend of the Game: Arizona State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.


Missouri 34, Arizona State 32





more to come...

 

[xyzky]

You should have waited and waited for the LOU line...

 

[Two4TheMoney]

The play of the day should be ASU -6 (1ST HALF) it will be a swarm on defense from ASU , by the time Missouri knows what hit them the score will be 17-0 in the 2ndQ. Take ASU huge in 1stH!

 

[varkeyboy]

I'm kinda diggin the OVER tonight in ASU.........thoughts?

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Mizzouri has lost 5 starters for tonites game, and was held to 17 points by a MAC team at home. 10 points is not going to be enough. Mizzou is a 2nd tier Big 12-2-1 team, and that is not saying much. ASU is 7-1 as a home favorite of less than 28 in non-con games, and 7-1 at home after scoring 35+ points. This game sets up nicely for ASU. Pass.

Iowa-Iowa State is another pass. Iowa has scored 35 against State in their last two meeting, and State managed to get lucky and eek out a 1 point win at home against FCS Northern Iowa. Iowa has lost a lot on offense, but how bad is Iowa State? Porbably a good wager, but I think there are better plays on the board. Pass.

 

[JWinner17]

I;m with you MsState!!! Go DAWGS!!!

 

[varkeyboy]

Best of luck in Week #2. Looking fwd to your other plays. When do you think you'll post final plays?

 

[moku]

Good job with mizz! I followed you.......lets do it tomorrow!

 

[minet123]

Good Luck Flava

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Saturday, September 10


Rutgers-North Carolina 'UNDER' 47.5 (10 Units)

Greg Schiano knows this is another rebuilding year for Rutgers yet he refuses to leave the University in hopes that he can put together another version of the 2006 team that went 11-2 on the year and destroyed Kansas State in the Texas Bowl. It won't happen this year but Schiano is a defensive guy and although his core of defensive starters from 2010 are gone, he probably doesn't mind all too much knowing they allowed 26.5 points per game compared to only 17.9 points per game the year before. Schiano is once again largely in charge of the defensive duties this season and it showed in the Scarlet Knights opener against NC Central, a 48-0 win and the 7th straight season that a Schiano defense pitches at least one shutout. Don't expect another one here but Rutgers can keep this close. North Carolina have a decimated offense from the 2010 team that scored 25.3 points per game with 15 of their 18 rushing touchdowns from last season departed, QB TJ Yates (all-time career passing leader at North Carolina) and 3 of his top 5 receivers gone. The Heels did score 42 in a 42-10 win over James Madison but it was their defense once again that stood out and expect that again today.

Both teams scored 40+ points in their season opening games versus Division II or whatever it's called schools so the offensive stats are misleading. Having said that, both teams are known for defense and defense they played in their openers. One of the reasons I think Rutgers can keep this close is because of their returning starters on offense from 2010 but that offense managed only 20.8 points per game and despite all the points they averaged only 4.6 yards per play in their opener. North Carolina has a nasty defense run by Everett Withers and they allowed only 211 total yards of offense on 3.8 yards per play in the opener. Don't even think about running the ball (Rutgers will anyways) because the Heels allowed less than 4.0 yards per carry in their last four seasons and in their opener they allowed 1.8 yards per carry. Senior LG Desmond Wynn is out for Rutgers so the pass and run protection will have problems. The Heels allowed quite a bit in the air last week but had 5 sacks so expect Rutgers to be pressured all afternoon in this one. On the flip side of things, North Carolina was a lot more impressive with their 461 total yards of offense and 7.9 yards per play in the opener but now they face a Rutgers defense that allowed only 120 total yards of offense, only 8 first downs and 2.0 yards per play in their opener. The Scarlet Knights had 9 sacks, 2 interceptions, they forced 3 fumbles and recovered 2 of those fumbles. The Heels ran the ball for 5.3 yards per carry but face a defense that allowed 8 rushing yards for a whopping 0.3 yards per carry. Get my drift here? Rutgers also allowed only 3.7 yards per pass attempt in the game and harassed NC Central's quarterback all game. With their offense struggling in this game, expect much of the same defensive effort. It's their only way to win.

Go take a look at some of the past meetings between these teams and you'll see that low scoring games are traditional. Rutgers has been held to 21 points or less in all three lifetime meetings and two of the three games went UNDER. With North Carolina losing the majority of their offensive stars from last season and with Greg Schiano taking over this Rutgers defense after a bad season, I doubt we see too many points here. The UNDER is 6-1 in Rutgers' last seven games coming off a win of 20+ points and the UNDER has hit in 9 of their last 11 non-conference games. The UNDER is also 6-1 in North Carolina's last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season because they know what they have to do to beat good teams and the UNDER is 5-1 in the Tar Heels last six games following a win of 20+ points the game before. There is obviously the concern of turnovers and a lot of points coming off turnovers but this will be an offensive struggle to say the least with both quarterbacks running for their lives for the most part. Big fan of both defenses and this total is just way too high. Going with the low scoring game for this one.

Trend of the Game: UNDER is 9-2 in Rutgers last 11 non-conference games.


North Carolina 17, Rutgers 10





more to come...