MistaFlava's CFB College Bowl Games ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

Search

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
My record on the season was all over the place. Didn't post much, when I did I broke even but didn't invest too much time into CFB in 2015. Back in the glory days of 2004-2005 I would spend some 10+ hours a day capping games but those days are long gone.

Having said that, I always traditionally bet on every single Bowl Game. I place bets of $110 and $275 (big plays).

Lets make some cash folks and LETS GO BOWLING!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saturday, December 19


NEW MEXICO BOWL


New Mexico Lobos +7.5 ($275 to win $250)

You can't go wrong with the Lobos here. They finished the year covering the spread in three of their last four and they are playing at home against a team missing their RB. New Mexico is playing at home and there is no reason not to compete in this game. I think the Lobos run the ball well, score some points running the ball, they keep the Arizona offense off the field and they obviously have more interest in this game than the Wildcats who came into this thing with some coaching uncertainty. Give me the underdog to kick things off.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl Games




LAS VEGAS BOWL


Utah Utes -2.5 ($275 to win $250)

I have no choice but to go with Utah. Every single year I seem to fade them in Bowl Games and I pay the price. They have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 Bowl Games coming into this thing. The numbers for Utah as a favorite were not good this year and I'm not basing this on how they played as a favorite, this is more about QB Travis Wilson and his ability to put points on the board. The Utes is pretty decent too and I will always back Utah in Bowl Games. This is another pretty big play.

Trend of the Game: Utah is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Bowl Games.




CAMELLIA BOWL


Ohio-Appalachian State 'UNDER' 55.5 ($275 to win $250)


You would think this is some kind of crazy shootout with App State putting up some big points but at the end of the day I see this game being a bit of a sleeper and I don't see too many points being put on the board. Recent trends point to non-stop OVERS for both these teams but isn't that a bit too obvious and a bit too easy here? Looking more at an overall season trend and these two teams combined for only 12 OVERS in 24 games and this is a 50/50. I say this game gets a bit boring, lots of turnovers, some stops on fourth down, some missed FG's and a low scoring affaire.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 4-1 in Ohio's last five Bowl Games.




CURE BOWL


San Jose State Spartans -1 ($110 to win $100)


Small play for me on this one. Would have normally sat out but I have to have some kind of action and I'll put it on the Spartans. Georgia State is the HOT play from the public and from all the experts but just because you closed the season hot, doesn't you are going to win in Bowl Games. Never has, never will. San Jose State was favored in 2 of their last 5 games and they won and covered both those games. You have Georgia State who covered and cashed as underdogs all season versus San Jose State who went 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Could be a good one. Candidate for Bowl Game of the day (entertainment wise). Small play for me.

Trend of the Game: San Jose State is 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.




NEW ORLEANS BOWL


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2 ($110 to win $100)
Arkansas State-Louisiana Tech 'UNDER' 68.5 ($110 to win $100)

Two plays for me on this one. That's somewhat rare but I see Louisiana Tech winning this one by a score of say 31-27 hence the small play on both. You expect fireworks in this game too with both teams scoring a crap load of points but I'm not buying it. Arkansas State went OVER the total 8 straight games to finish the season but Louisiana Tech went UNDER in three of their last five but a few of those by very small margins. I see that here again. Something funky like an overtime win or a missed FG. Both teams were big time OVER cashing teams this year which is why I'm taking a shot at the UNDER. It's a big total.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 4-0 in Louisiana's last four games played in December.



GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!




:toast:
 

RX Local
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
24,032
Tokens
Nice little writeups as always mistaflava. GL this season of bowls :toast:

-murph
 

Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2006
Messages
53,686
Tokens
Mr./Flava.......enjoy the Bowl Season..........good luck with todays action...........indy
 

New member
Joined
Oct 21, 2013
Messages
1,813
Tokens
As usual, MF had a profitable day. 3-1 on sides & perhaps 4-0 on sides, since NM went up to +9.

Keep up the good work!!

Tex
 

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
Sorry did not make it online to post the Bowl Pick yesterday. Here is what I'm at (hate the early Bowl games)


3-3 (-$110)


Time to get the real party started, will most likely stay away from totals? Unless I really have to.
 

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
Alright not the start I wanted but getting into some better games. Not exactly sure what I've watched the last few days to be honest.



Tuesday, December 22



IDAHO POTATO BOWL


Akron Zips +7 ($110 to win $100)

The betting public is taking Utah State and in early Bowl Games that's usually not a good idea. Forget the underdogs, but the public plays have somewhat taken a hit (Georgia Southern, Appalachian State). Nobody really knows much about Akron but they are very good defensively and ranked 3rd Nationally against the run. I've always said if you can stop the run you can stop anything. Terry Bowden has turned this program around. Akron finished the year on a great ATS run of four straight games while Utah State finished the year going 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Utah State have a dual threat QB and they also have a very good RB but I think Akron finds a way to stop them and make this a close game. I'll go as far as saying that the Zips win the game.

Trend of the Game: Akron is 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.




BOCA RATON BOWL


Temple Owls -2.5 ($110 to win $100)

Wow, shocking stuff. So many posters taking Toledo to win this game. You cannot possibly believe the MAC teams are going 2-0 today so for me this is about taking Akron (who I believe will win based on my post above) and then fading Toledo. I know Temple struggled down the stretch and they got their asses handed to them against Houston in the Conference Championship game...BUT...they are in a perfect bounce back situation here. Both teams had great seasons. Toledo's coach left, Temple's coach signed an extension. Temple is a team that belongs in a New Year's Eve/Day Bowl Game but bad losses down the stretch doomed them. This team battles and they are very good defensively. Looking back at MAC Championship Games and Bowl Games, Toledo is only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five December games. Temple coming off that loss to Houston, has always been decent coming off losses covering the spread in 11 of their last 15 when losing the previous game. I'm going to take the Owls who will find a way to shut down Toledo's offense...that or they'll outscore them by a lot.

Trend of the Game: Temple is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up loss.




GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!



:toast:
 

New member
Joined
Oct 21, 2013
Messages
1,813
Tokens
alright not the start i wanted but getting into some better games. Not exactly sure what i've watched the last few days to be honest.



tuesday, december 22



idaho potato bowl


akron zips +7 ($110 to win $100)

the betting public is taking utah state and in early bowl games that's usually not a good idea. Forget the underdogs, but the public plays have somewhat taken a hit (georgia southern, appalachian state). Nobody really knows much about akron but they are very good defensively and ranked 3rd nationally against the run. I've always said if you can stop the run you can stop anything. Terry bowden has turned this program around. Akron finished the year on a great ats run of four straight games while utah state finished the year going 0-4 ats in their last four games. Utah state have a dual threat qb and they also have a very good rb but i think akron finds a way to stop them and make this a close game. I'll go as far as saying that the zips win the game.

trend of the game: akron is 4-0 ats in their last four games overall.




Boca raton bowl


temple owls -2.5 ($110 to win $100)

wow, shocking stuff. So many posters taking toledo to win this game. You cannot possibly believe the mac teams are going 2-0 today so for me this is about taking akron (who i believe will win based on my post above) and then fading toledo. I know temple struggled down the stretch and they got their asses handed to them against houston in the conference championship game...but...they are in a perfect bounce back situation here. Both teams had great seasons. Toledo's coach left, temple's coach signed an extension. Temple is a team that belongs in a new year's eve/day bowl game but bad losses down the stretch doomed them. This team battles and they are very good defensively. Looking back at mac championship games and bowl games, toledo is only 1-3-1 ats in their last five december games. Temple coming off that loss to houston, has always been decent coming off losses covering the spread in 11 of their last 15 when losing the previous game. I'm going to take the owls who will find a way to shut down toledo's offense...that or they'll outscore them by a lot.

trend of the game: temple is 11-4 ats in their last 15 games coming off a straight up loss.




Good luck everyone!



:toast:


bol flava!
 

Que paso batos?
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
371
Tokens
Mistaflava,
I recall one year when you were running games through X-Box or PS4 simulations and coming up with remarkable results. Is that what you are doing this year? Since I am not a gamer, I would be curious if anyone is trying this angle.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 19, 2011
Messages
7,341
Tokens
Mistaflava,
I recall one year when you were running games through X-Box or PS4 simulations and coming up with remarkable results. Is that what you are doing this year? Since I am not a gamer, I would be curious if anyone is trying this angle.

I will be playing tecmo bowl later, I will post results
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,185
Tokens
mistaflava,
i recall one year when you were running games through x-box or ps4 simulations and coming up with remarkable results. Is that what you are doing this year? Since i am not a gamer, i would be curious if anyone is trying this angle.


hilarious!
 

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
Mistaflava,
I recall one year when you were running games through X-Box or PS4 simulations and coming up with remarkable results. Is that what you are doing this year? Since I am not a gamer, I would be curious if anyone is trying this angle.


LOL do you remember the results including perfect scoreline on two NFL Sunday games? Took way too much time and too many intangibles you can't control but it was fun while it lasted.
 

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
UPDATE

4-4 ATS (-$120) this Bowl Season

Now we head into what I like to call my bread and butter season. Some real football teams and very profitable games. My picks will be posted soon.
 

Handicapping Machine
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
17,214
Tokens
Okay so thought I would share this angle with you guys. I follow angles, trends and common aspects pretty closely and this is how I came up with my winning 2H play system in CBB a while back that won huge huge money.

I've been observing a common trend with the ATS winners so far this Bowl Season and here is what I have found.

When comparing the two teams playing and taking into consideration: Time of Possession + Running Plays vs. Passing Plays + QB Play the team leading in the most categories has gone 10-2 ATSso far this Bowl Season.

Using the closing line here how those teams have fared


12/19 (New Mexico Bowl): New Mexico Lobos +9
12/19 (Las Vegas Bowl): Utah Utes -2.5
12/19 (Camellia Bowl): Ohio Bobcats +7
12/19 (Cure Bowl): San Jose State Spartans -1
12/19 (New Orleans Bowl): Arkansas State Red Wolves +1
12/21 (Miami Beach Bowl): Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3
12/22 (Potato Bowl): Akron Zips +7.5
12/22 (Boca Raton Bowl): Temple Owls -1.5
12/23 (Pointsettia Bowl): Boise State Broncos -6.5
12/23 (GoDaddy Bowl): Georgia Southern Eagles +4.5
12/24 (Bahamas Bowl): Western Michigan Broncos -3
12/24 (Hawaii Bowl): San Diego State Aztecs -2


No idea if this trend is going to continue but again whichever team leads in 2 or 3 of 3 categories listed above heading into the Bowl Game has covered 10 of the 12 games so far and this is where my money is going today.

Each play is $110 to win $100



12/26 (St Petersburg Bowl): Connecticut Huskies +3
12/26 (Sun Bowl): Washington State Cougars -1.5
12/26 (Dallas Bowl): Southern Miss Golden Eagles +8
12/26 (Pinstripe Bowl): Indiana Hoosiers -3
12/26 (Independence Bowl): Virginia Tech Hokies -14
12/26 (Foster Farms Bowl): Nebraska Cornhuskers +5.5




GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!




:toast:
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,793
Messages
13,573,185
Members
100,868
Latest member
danielwattkin
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com