MistaFlava's CBB Wednesday ***CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 90-93-4 ATS (-82.20 Units)
My apologies for the wrong units posted, had a + instead of a - and I have made the changes. I am as honest as it gets with my record keeping so I don't know why a few of you flipped out, it was a simple typo.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6603 Depaul Blue Demons +9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6604

The Depaul Blue Demons would you believe it found a way to win a game in the Big East Tournament believe it or not and could they somehow be the surprise of the the tournament by pulling off a few upsets here and there? What I know about this team is that they for some reason have really enjoyed playing on neutral courts this season where they are averaging 69.0 points per game and have managed to shoot 45.8% from the floor in games played on a neutral court. This is their comfort zone. Providence on the other hand has not been good on neutral courts allowing 71.7 points per game this season and allowing those neutral court opponents to 48.4% shooting from the floor in those games. Shooting three pointers has never been what Depaul is about so don't expect a lot of missed shots from long range. What I like about the Blue Demons on a neutral court is that they have been to the free throw line 22.0 times per game in those games (above NCAA average) and Providence has had problems with good inside teams as their neutral court opponents have been to the free throw line 22.7 times per game this season. I give Depaul a huge rebounding edge as they have brought down a whopping 38.0 rebounds per neutral site game this season with 12.3 of those being offensive boards and that is a problem for a Providence team that has allowed neutral court opponents to bring down 34.0 rebounds per game this season. I will never be a fan of Depaul's guard play no matter what but at least they turn the ball over only 13.0 times per game on neutral courts and that's good news against a very aggressive Providence defense. The problem with Providence is that they are so aggressive that teams who can move the ball can get around the pressure and score easy points as their neutral court opponents average 15.3 assists per game. As long as Depaul sticks to the gameplan of using the paint in this game, they should keep this close or win.

The Providence Friars come into this game off one of their best regular seasons in a very long time but that doesn't mean jack shit come tournament time and some teams just don't look the same when they walk into MSG. Depaul already showed they can play here. Providence on the other hand comes into this game averaging only 66.0 points per game played on a neutral court this season and in those games they have managed to shoot only 38.2% from the floor (both well below the NCAA averages). Depaul is by no means a good defensive team but they have been great on neutral courts this season allowing only 67.0 points per game and allowing those same opponents to shoot only 40.4% from the floor in those games. Wow! The Friars can forget about running away with this game on three point shots as they have made only 19.4% of their three point shots on neutral courts this season and that's bad new considering 33.3% of their shot attempts in those games have come from downtown. Depaul has been bombarded with perimeter shooting on neutral courts but their opponents have made only 29.9% of their three point shots in those games. I know Providence loves attacking the basket and they are pretty good at it but surprisingly enough Depaul's interior defense on neutral courts has been outstanding as their opponents have been to the free throw line only 14.7 times per game in those games. The Friars won't come close to covering if they can't be as tough as Depaul and I would be concerned with the fact that on neutral courts this season they have brought down only 29.7 rebounds per game while Depaul has allowed opponents to bring down only 30.0 rebounds per game (all below NCAA averages on neutral courts). If you though Depaul had bad guard play wait until you see how Providence's guards perform on a neutral court as they average only 9.3 assists per game, turn the ball over 15.3 times per game and are in trouble against a Depaul team that has defended the perimeter very well on neutral courts allowing only 10.0 assists per game. As long as Depaul can continue to shut things down from the outside and avoid big runs by their opponents, they should have no problems keeping this game close with their defense and neutral courts is not where you want to bet on Providence...believe me on that guys.

I have to say right now that Depaul is playing some good basketball as of late and that I actually think they can find a way to win another game in this tournament. I mean this team is now 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season and they are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. That makes them 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus Big East Conference opponents. They do not deserve to be underdogs of this many points and Vegas is actually making a big mistake on this. I don't know what the big deal is about this Providence team anyways. You have to understand that out of their last 10 games overall, they have managed to cover the spread in only three of those games and that makes them 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus Big East Conference opponents. I was talking about bad they are on neutral courts and the proof of that lies in the fact that they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-11 ATS overall in their last 15 games played on a neutral site. As long as Depaul can play some defense and keep this lower scoring than usual, they are going to not only cover but probably pull another upset and win this game on the MoneyLine.

Trend of the Game: Providence is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.


Depaul 69, Providence 66




More selections to be posted...
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[hpatel33]

hey, whats you thoughts on the baylor/nebraska game in the afteroon.

i am leaning towrads baylor

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6606 Baylor Bears -1 (10 Units) View attachment 6607

The Baylor Bears have let me down way too many times this season but I am willing to give them one more shot at this because we all saw how some teams are better in conference tournaments than regular season games and Baylor is probably one of those teams seeing how they came into the season with a TOP 25 projection. The Bears come into this game averaging 76.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 45.6% shooting from the floor in those games which is pretty damn good. Having said that Nebraska is a very good defensive team (they did have a weak schedule so don't get too excited) and their opponents have struggled to score this season but that doesn't concern me at all. Baylor is an above average three point shooting team that has nailed 35.9% of their shots from three point range on 8.2 three point shots made per game this season which will work to their advantage against a Huskers team that has struggled against good deep perimeter shooting teams like Baylor. With all the speed on this Baylor team you have to appreciate the fact that they get to the free throw line 23.1 times per game this season and make 70.4% of those free throws. Baylor is not used to teams who run and that is going to be a problem. Baylor has struggled against bigger teams who can out-rebound them left and right but Nebraska is horrendous on the boards and their opponents have brought down 31.7 rebounds per game this season. The guard play for Baylor has been somewhat disappointing this season because we all expect them to move the ball like the wind and drop three bombs left and right but they haven't. Having said that, they don't turn the ball much over with only 12.8 turnovers per game this season. That's just what you need against a very pesky Huskers defense that forces a lot of turnovers. I think Nebraska's defensive flaws on the outside perimeter are going to be a big plus for Baylor and the Bears should pull away in this game with a barrage of three point shots. If they can knock a few down early in this game, WATCH OUT OF THE BEARS IN THIS TOURNAMENT!

The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a pretty good regular season and I know a lot of people are going to back them in this game. Having said that, the Huskers offense continues to be a problem when they play against teams who can score or play against teams who can go on big scoring runs. I say that because they come into this game averaging only 59.8 points per game when playing away from home and in those games they have managed to shoot only 40.9% from the floor in those games. That's bad. So what difference does it make that Baylor cannot defend at all away from home or that they have lost almost all their games against opponents that can score a bunch of points. The bottom lie is that the Huskers cannot keep up with a fast pace of play. They do shoot the three ball quite well away from home and have done so all season but Baylor play tight defense on the outside as their away opponents this season have attempted only 14.3 three point shots per game away game with the NCAA average being 18.3 attempts per game. Interior defense has been the biggest issue for Baylor defensively on the road but I don't think Nebraska can take advantage of this as they have been to the free throw line only 18.5 times per game away from home this season and that's not enough to put Baylor at some level of discomfort. Baylor takes a ton of shots per game and if the Huskers cannot rebound they are going to get killed which I see happening because they have brought down only 25.5 rebounds per game away from this season which is well below the NCAA average for the season. I don't know of any other team that has brought down only 5.1 offensive rebounds per away game on the season and for a team that shoots only 40.9% from the floor away from home, no rebounds is nothing more than bad news. The guard has been pretty good for Nebraska but their shooting has not and like I said before, this team is just not good enough to run with Baylor as they average only 12.7 asssists per away game this season and that's below the NCAA average. Nebraska has had success this season but even if they try to slow this game down, it won't work and the minute Baylor goes up by more than five points, this game is all said and done with.

I know the Huskers found a way to beat Baylor once this season and yes they did go to Texas and got the road win. However, I still don't trust the Huskers playing away from home and I think Baylor is going to approach this game a bit differently then they did on the weekend (the last meeting was Saturday). Believe it or not this Bears team has been much better away from home and away from Big 12 courts in general as they are a very impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral site. No matter how bad they have been this season on the ATS front or how much money they have cost you, this should not be held against them because the conference tournament is providing them a new lease on tournament life and Baylor is the one team in the Big 12 that can do some serious damage and take the big guys for a nice little run. Nebraska has been just as good on neutral site the last few seasons but again I don't see Baylor losing to them twice in a row and I definitely do not see Nebraska winning more than one game in a row when playing away from home. The favorite in this series has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings and you can tell what Vegas is doing here...they are taking you for a ride with this line. The -1 makes no sense and I am taking Baylor. Not even close if you ask me.

Trend of the Game: Baylor is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.


Baylor 79, Nebraska 60




More selections to be posted...
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[NeedALiving]

amazing write ups every day. love following you, thanks!

 

[jbragg10]

good luck

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6608 St. John's Red Storm +7.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6609

I don't know what it is about the underdogs in this tournament but they have been on fire for the simple fact that oddsmakers are forgetting about the change of format and they are not considering the fact that a lot of these teams are getting a new lease on life here. Some are playing for the NIT much like St. John's is and they do have some fans at MSG. The Red Storm come into this game averaging a whopping 70.5 points per game when playing on a neutral court this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 42.1% from the floor which is not all that good but has done the trick. Defensively Marquette has been good all season long and they don't allow many points per game but they have allowed their neutral court opponents to shoot 44.4% from the floor this season and you cannot give St. John's any kind of edge playing a game in this place. We have already established the entire season that St. John's does not have any good three point shooting threats so it makes no difference that Marquette is one of the best perimeter defending teams in the Nation. What St. John's does very well is penetrate the lanes and attack the hoop as they have been to the free throw line 24.8 times per game on a neutral court and they have made 68.7% of those free throws which is not that bad at all. Marquette has had issues on the inside all season as their neutral court opponents have been to the line 23.0 times per game and St. John's should put them into early foul trouble here. The only way to keep up with the Golden Eagles is if you can rebound and play them tough and St. John's has done just that on neutral courts this season where they have brought down 35.5 rebounds per game on 12.5 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Watch out Marquette, this team is tough. You also have to have guards who can run the floor and control the ball if you want to ball with Marquette and St. John's has a few of them as they average 13.5 assists per game on a neutral court this season while turning the ball over only 13.0 times per game in those games. I don't know that Marquette has been tough enough for me defensively when playing on neutral courts this season and that is a big part of why I think St. John's can keep this game close or knock Marquette right out of this thing today. The Red Storm should have success in the paint all day long here in this game.

The Marquette Golden Eagles season went down the drain the minute Dominic James went down and was announced as out for the season. I don't care what kind of depth this team has, you cannot deny the fact that they are totally fucked for the year now. Marquette will always be a team that can score a bunch of points and that is not a secret. They come into this game averaging 73.3 points per away game this season and shooting 45.9% from the floor on the road which is good and which should be good enough for them to score points in this game as well. St. John's defense away from home has been brutal this season but this could feel like home with all their fans in attendance and I think they are either going to step things up defensively or go for the shootout approach and ball with Marquette on offense. The Red Storm's biggest problem has been perimeter defense and outside shooters blowing them away but Marquette is shooting only 33.3% from three point range on the road this season and that is not good for a team that loves the three point shot as much as these guys do. With James out this team has not been as aggressive around the basket and regardless of that, St. John's has done a very good job of closing down inside lanes and keeping opponents outside as their road opponents have been to the free throw line only 18.8 times per game this season. I also have to mention that Marquette shoots only 65.1% from the line on the road. The Golden Eagles rebounding has sucked ass on the road this season as they have brought down only 29.3 rebounds per away game on only 7.9 offensive rebounds per game and the one and done approach is not going to cut it against this Red Storm defense that usually struggles against aggressive and tough teams. Having said that, St. John's road opponents this season average only 9.5 offensive boards per game. Without James this team is just not the same and it has shown. Moving the ball against this Red Storm defense should be easy but James is out and McNeal is not as good a ball handler as James. I am impressed with how aggressive St. John's is defensively away from home and they average 7.8 steals per away game this season. This game is going to go back and forth and Marquette just doesn't have what it takes to pull away and take a big lead in this game.

In their only meeting this season Marquette was able to win the game by 14 points and ironically enough James scored 14 of their 73 points. St. John's was on the road for that game and they managed to cover the 16 point spread with some ease and I expect much of the same here as Marquette is not the same away from home. St. John's is definitely the team you want to back in this kind of game as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as an underdog and they are playing some pretty damn good basketball right now having covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games overall. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus Big East Conference opponents. Marquette was a good ATS bet at the beginning of the season but they have really fallen off now and have not been the same since James went down with his injury. The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up loss the game before. What that says is that this team is not good under the pressure of following up a loss with a win. I refuse to bet on a team that has not covered a single spread as a favorite since Dominic James went down (they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite). Fade these guys while morale is still down. This game is even closer than the first one.

Trend of the Game: Marquette is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.


Marquette 74, St. John's 71




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6610 Colorado Buffaloes +14 (10 Units) View attachment 6611​

The Colorado Buffaloes are by no means a good team nor do they have a chance of winning this tournament or making any other tournament for that matter. Having said that they have kept some games close this season and this one should be no different. Colorado comes into this game averaging 66.3 points per game when they play on a neutral court this season and in those games they have shot a very impressive 48.9% from the floor in those games which makes me believe they have a shot in this game. Texas plays tremendous defense and they have all season but all Colorado has to do is score enough points to keep this game close and in the end they could have a chance to win the game. You would think some of Colorado's point have come from long range shooting but they have not as Colorado have attempted only 14.7 three point shots per game on a neutral court and they have managed to make 34.1% of those three point shots. The problem with Texas defensively is that they give up too much inside and sometimes they are too aggressive as their opponents on neutral courts this season have been to the line 22.8 times per game and if you let the Buffaloes go to the line they are going to make you pay for it as they have managed to make 85.2% of their free throws on neutral courts this season and that's a problem for Texas and this big spread. The Buffs are a small team that does not rebound well but Texas has been lazy on the boards at times this season and their neutral court opponents have brought down 32.2 rebounds per game on 10.5 offensive boards. Colorado doesn't have great guard play and they don't move the ball around all that well but they don't turn the ball over much either on only 13.7 turnovers per game on neutral courts this season, just what you need against a Texas defense that forces a lot of turnovers per game. It won't be easy to score inside against a huge interior Texas team but if Colorado is aggressive enough, they will draw fouls and get to the line often enough to keep this game very close and even have a shot to win it in the end. Should be good.

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most inconsistent teams in college basketball and I've had just about enough of these guys and their problems covering larger spreads. Texas comes into this tournament favored to challenge for the title but I can guarantee now that they won't win this thing and I am already writing them off. Texas comes into this game averaging only 68.5 points per away game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot a horrendous 41.1% from the floor and I just don't see how that is going to help them win games by double digits. It most definitely won't. Colorado has been losing left and right on the road all season long but that was against teams who can actually shoot and actually score a bunch of points, something we already know Texas cannot do for some reason. The biggest problem with this Colorado team is their perimeter defense because their rotations suck and they leave guys open too often from downtown. Having said that, Texas is shooting a pathetic 26.7% from three point range on the road this season making only 4.4 three point shots per game in those games. The Horns are a very good free throw shooting team but they don't get to the line enough and have been to the free throw line only 18.5 times per game on the road this season which is just not enough for a team that shoots poorly like Texas does. Nobody is questioning the toughness of the Horns because we all know how well they can rebound and we all know how tough they are on the boards but Colorado always find a way to frustrate opponents and this game should be no different. The Longhorns do not move the ball well on the road and that is going to be a problem in this game as they have averaged only 12.4 assists per game away from home on the year and that is something Colorado has struggled with so this is a plus for this defense. The Buffaloes are aggressive enough defensively that they will force some turnovers and score off those turnovers in this game. They don't have much interior presence and Texas can really take advantage of that in this game but the Horns can't seem to play the well no the road and I refuse to bet on them against a team like Colorado. Maybe next round Horns.

These two teams only met once this season and the Horns needed overtime on the road to win the game. So how the hell do you figure they deserve to be favored by this many points in this game here anyways? I just don't see where that is justified at all. The Buffaloes have not been a good wager in most games this season but they do show up to play against some of the better teams as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus opponents that have a winning percentage better than .600% on the season. I also have to mention that Colorado is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when an underdog of 13 or more points and they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. They are a very nice 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus Big 12 Conference opponents and this is a great spot to place some money on these guys. Texas on the other hand might do well in this tournament but it could take a bit of time to get going. The Longhorns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and they have managed to cover the spread in only 3 of their last 11 games overall so why in the world do you trust these guys? In the end, they are not this many points better than Colorado on the road and the underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and this should be no different. I am going with Colorado to come very close in this one.

Trend of the Game: Colorado is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus opponents with a winning record of .600% or better.


Texas 69, Colorado 66




More selections to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6612 Iowa State Cyclones +10.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6613

The Iowa State Cyclones are a boring team and every game they play is usually played a complete snail pace but having said that this team has somewhat gotten better as the season has progressed and I think they can keep this game close and make something of it before all is said and done. The Cyclones come into this game averaging 65.0 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot 43.3%. Not too good but not too bad either and better than what this team has done most of this season. I think the line is a bit skewed because Oklahoma State has played well defensively their last five games shutting down opposing teams while allowing 68.2 points per game. Having said that, this is the best Iowa State has played offensively all season. They are making 6.4 three point shots per game in their last five games and are going up against an Oklahoma State team that has allowed their last five opponents to shoot a whopping 38.7% from three point range on 7.2 three pointers made per game in those games. One thing you do not want to do is send the Cyclones to the line because despite not getting there all that much their last five games, this team is shooting 76.3% from the line in those games and Oklahoma State's last five opponents have been to the line 19.6 times per game. Iowa State is a rather small team and they don't rebound all that well but that might change in this game as the Cowboys have allowed their last five opponents to grab 31.0 rebounds per game and that includes 10.0 offensive rebounds per game which means the Cyclones are going to get more second chances than they are used to. Iowa State has good enough guard play to score points as they average 13.2 assists per game in their last five games and turn the ball over only 11.6 times per game in those games. Despite closing things down defensively, Oklahoma State doesn't force enough turnovers to outscore opponents by a bunch of points as they have forced only 11.4 turnovers per game their last five games and have only 5.4 steals per game in those games. The Cyclones should be able to keep this close guys.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a good basketball team and they can be just as dangerous as anyone in the Conference once they make the big dance so I would watch out for them then. Having said that, they are very inconsistent and they will probably take this game lightly. The Cowboys come into this game scoring a bunch of points per game in their last five games and they are shooting pretty well from the floor in those games as well. Despite allowing more than 70 points per game in their last five games, Iowa State has been decent defensively allowing those opponents to shoot only 44.9% from the floor and that should keep the Cowboys somewhat at bay in this game. We all know Oklahoma State loves to unload from three point land and they are pretty damn good at it making a bunch of threes in their last five games but that's why you have to appreciate the fact that Iowa State has held their last five opponents to 32.0% shooting from three point range and that will force the Cowboys to do other things here. Oklahoma State has always been a team that loves going inside and all they do is crash the lanes and attack the paint but that is easier said than done against Iowa State because the Cyclones last five opponents have been to the line only 17.2 times per game and they have done a great job keeping opponents out and shooting from the outside. The Cowboys are not much better than Iowa State on the boards as they have brought down only 8.8 offensive rebounds per game the last five games while Iowa State has allowed only 8.2 offensive rebounds per game. If Oklahoma State is held to one and dones, the Cyclones are in serious business today. I have to mention that even though their inside game is strong, Oklahoma State's guard play has been horrendous as they average only 9.0 assists per game in their last five games. The Cyclones don't force many turnovers so it shouldn't be a huge a problem but what they do is keep opponents out of scoring positions quite well and they defend the perimeter quite well. As long as Iowa State forces Oklahoma State to keep everything outside, they should keep this close or win.

I know it's hard to bet on bad teams like Iowa State and I know Oklahoma State won their only meeting of the season by 19 points on their own home court. Having said that, this is not a home game for the Cowboys despite being played in their home State and they might be more interested in conserving some energy for the next few rounds. Iowa State has been a horrendous ATS wager the last few months and even as underdogs they have not been able to cover many spreads. So why take them you ask? Well for starters they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on a Wednesday. But mostly it's because I just don't think Oklahoma State is going to have enough interest in running the entire game knowing they have to play a possible 3-4 games in that many nights leading up to this championship weekend. Oklahoma State has been very good in neutral site games and they do have a good track record against Big 12 opponents but again I don't see them keeping their starting guys in this game beyond the middle point of the half and knowing how easily they can probably win this game, the Cowboys are going to approach this with a different style that sees them work the shot clock and set up longer offensive sets in an effort to save energy...which is the smart thing to do by the way. The Big 12 is to fast paced for these guys to go nuts in this game so I am going with the underdog to keep it within the number. I'll go out on a limb and call for the upset here if not the cover is good.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Wednesday.


Iowa State 74, Oklahoma State 72
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More selections to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6615 West Virginia Mountaineers -5.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6614

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had a very up and down season and a lot of experts are calling for them to get far in this tournament and pull off a few upsets along the way but they did not look all that good against Rutgers yesterday despite covering. The Mountaineers actually come into this game averaging only 66.0 points per game in their last five games and they have shot only 40.9% from the floor in those games (both well below the NCAA average for those games). West Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in this Conference as they have allowed only 59.2 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 42.5% from the floor. Despite not shooting the ball well in general, the Irish continue to shoot the lights out from three point range and that is one area the Mountaineers have struggled with in their last five games. Having said that, Bob Huggins is a good coach and he will find a way to get his guys outside defending the perimeter better than they have in recent games. If you take away their outside shooting, this team has nothing. Notre Dame has been to the free throw line only 15.0 times per game in their last five games and they have managed to make only 62.7% of those free throws which is pathetic. That's not a problem either for WVU because their last five opponents have not been able to penetrate the paint, going to the free throw line only 14.6 times per game. WOW! If you can't rebound you aren't balling with West Virginia and although Notre Dame does rebound well, their offensive rebounding sucks and the one and dones in this game are going to kill them seeing the way they are shooting the ball recently. The Mountaineers have allowed their last five opponents to grab only 25.8 rebounds per game. The Irish do have tremendous guard play and they don't turn the ball over much but having said that West Virginia's trap is too hard to break and the Irish will move the ball the way they always move the ball to the inside and the outside. The Mountaineers don't force many turnovers but they do force a ton of bad/contested shots which is what you are going to see from the Irish tonight. Add another loss and a berth to the NIT.

The West Virginia Mountaineers have killed me this season but figure now that the Big East Tournament is here, we might see the best this team has to offer. I have lost a ton of games betting on the Mountaineers this season but things could be different this time around because the public is not all over them as they have been too many times this year. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging a whopping 72.4 points per game this season despite not shooting the ball all that well from the floor in those games. This is a young team and they do make mistakes but I like the matchup against an Irish defense that sucks ass and that has allowed 70.9 points per game this season. It's not a secret that West Virginia is that good of a three point shooting team and that is not the way they want to approach this game against the Irish anyways because the only way to score against Notre Dame is with good ball movement that ends up with some inside action and some open shots or easy baskets from underneath the hoop. The Mountaineers have been aggressive around the basket all season going to the free throw line 21.1 times per game this year and that should be enough to bother the Irish. I know this game is probably going to be close right to the end but I am a big fan of the way West Virginia is capable of finishing games and really putting things away with their efforts on the boards as they average a whopping 13.3 offensive rebounds per game this season and Notre Dame has had problems all season allowing 10.5 offensive rebounds per game. The Irish also allowed opponents to bring down 35.2 rebounds per game this season and when you give West Virginia that many chances they are going to make you pay for it. Much like Notre Dame the Mountaineers have outstanding ball movement from their guards averaging 15.1 assists per game this season while turning the ball over only 11.8 times which is going to work against a Notre Dame defense that does not force turnovers (only 10.0 per game on the season) and that allows too much easy ball movement allowing 13.8 assists per game this season. I think West Virginia's size in this game is going to be too much for the Irish and they should net them a pretty big win in this game.

I know the only time these guys played each other this season was in West Virginia and that was an 11 point win for the home side but the neutral court should not be a problem for the Mountaineers unless the Irish find a way to turn their season around in a hurry which I don't see happening. They are either going to lose this game big or win this game big. I have nothing but negative things to say about Notre Dame here as they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus Big East Conference opponents and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. I also have to mention that this team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on a neutral site as an underdog and in general they have just sucked covering the spread in only 5 of their last 17 games overall. So why the hell would you bother backing these guys anyways? Notre Dame is only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up win the game before and only 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games that follow an ATS spread cover the game before. West Virginia is the complete opposite as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. The games between these two teams have generally been low scoring and I don't know if we can expect the same here but what I expect is for the Mountaineers to really dominate the action and pull away late. Huggins in a tournament for me anyday of the week!

Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.


West Virginia 78, Notre Dame 63




More selections to come...
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[JWinner17]

Agreed with you on WVU!!! Notre Dame blows...

 

[ksta7090ks]

The guts and stats Flava is back... !
Good Luck!

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, March 11


View attachment 6617 Stanford Cardinal -6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6618

The Stanford Cardinal have been another one of those up and down teams in the PAC 10 this season which is probably why they are stuck playing against Oregon State in this game and not an easier opponent. You can be shocked all you want that the line is the way the line is but it makes sense. The Cardinal come into this game averaging 73.4 points per game in their last five games and in those games they managed to shoot 46.3% from the floor. That is going to be a huge problem for an Oregon State team that despite allowing only 66.8 points per game in their last five games, have also allowed those same opponents to shoot 47.1% from the floor and that is not going to win them many games against high scoring teams like the Cardinal. If you can't defend the perimeter against Stanford you are fucked and the fact that Oregon State's last five opponents have shot 37.9% from three point range tells me that they are fucked against a Stanford team that has made 43.8% of their three point shots in their last five games on 8.4 three pointers made per game in those games. For a team that shoots so well from the outside it's also impressive that the Cardinal shoot 78.5% from the free throw line their last five games and get to that line quite often which should cause all sorts of matchup problems for the Beavers. My only knock of this Stanford team would be rebounding since the Lopez brothers left some big holes on this team but Oregon State is probably the worst rebounding team in the Conference and the Cardinal actually have the edge in rebounding tonight (for once). The Stanford guards have done a good job distributing the ball their last five games averaging 13.8 assists per game and turning it over only 12.0 times per game in those games. That's going to be a problem for Oregon State as they have allowed 14.4 assists per game in their last five and have forced only 11.2 turnovers per game in those games. The Beavers cannot run and gun with Stanford, it's simple as that and the boys from California should have no problems winning this one big.

The Oregon State Beavers have made me money on a few occasions this season and as much as I would have backed them in this tournament with the right matchup, I don't see them staying close with this Stanford team. Anyone who has watched this team play on the road knows they have all sorts of problems scoring points and keeping games close and this should be no different tonight. The Beavers come into this game averaging a pathetic 57.5 points per away game this season and although they have shot the ball well, their slow pace of play is no match for the top teams in this conference who love to run the floor and I just don't see how they keep up in this game tonight. Stanford loves to run, they allow a lot of points but that is what they have done all season and shitty teams have not been able to keep up. The biggest problem Stanford had all year on the road was the three pointers they allow but Oregon State shoots only 33.6% from three point range away from home this season on only 5.5 three pointers made per game in those games. Other teams have had success attacking the paint against Stanford and they have struggled to defend teams that are tough on the inside but Oregon State is pathetic inside as they have been to the free throw line only 11.9 times per game on the road this season and they are making only 61.9% of their free throws per game in those games. I talked about rebounding earlier and I mentioned how bad some of these PAC 10 teams were and Oregon State is no different as they have brought down only 24.1 rebounds per away game this season on only 6.3 offensive rebounds per game and if you don't get second chances against Stanford, you are not going to stay close or win. The guard play for the Beavers has been borderline disastrous as they average only 11.5 assists per game on the road and I think they are going to have all sorts of problems against a Stanford defense that has forced 12.9 turnovers per game on the road. The Beavers are so bad on offense that if they get down by more than 6-7 points there is no climbing out of the hole and their missed shots and lack of rebounding is going to prevent them from forming any kind of comeback. Fade these clowns.

I talked all sorts of shit about Oregon State in this writeup but what's funny is that they are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS against Stanford this season beating them twice as underdogs and I am sure a lot of people are going to be backing the Beavers because of this. I think neutral courts are completely different animals for some of the teams in college basketball and Stanford is one of those teams that will probably find a way to impress in this tournament. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral court games as a favorite and we are talking about a team that has covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games that follow a straight up loss the game before. Stanford is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games versus teams that have a losing straight up record on the season. I know they lost both times against the Beavers this season but believe me they won't lose a third and they have actually covered 12 of their last 17 against Oregon State anyways. The Beavers, apart from their games against Stanford, have sucked in PAC 10 Confernece play as they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26. Oregon State is also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Wednesday and 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Count these guys out of this game, Stanford wins big.

Trend of the Game: Oregon State is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games versus PAC 10 opponents.


Stanford 73, Oregon State 58




More selections to come...
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[Riverman]

as always, thanks mista flava, with you on West Virginia. GL !

 

[BoiseBrian]

I love your writeups, and have uber respect for your capping

3-1 to start with 3 good looking picks to go

BOL to you

p.s. Daylight savings is your reminder to check your fire alarm batteries in your hallway (you're on fire)<><>

 

[MistaFlava]

Monday, March 11


View attachment 6620 Syracuse Orangemen -6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6619

The Seton Hall Pirates have been a wonderful wager pretty much all season and the only reason I didn't take them yesterday is because I was all caught up in that PS2 bullshit and they were not part of my plays. Having said that, there comes a time to fade each and every team and I think this is the time to say goodbye to these guys only because of their opponent. The Pirates come into this game averaging 68.5 points per game away from home this season but having said that this team does not shoot the ball well and they have managed to shoot only 42.4% from the floor in those games and that is just not going to cut it against a Syracuse team that loves the fast pace of play and that despite allowing more than 72 points per game on the road this season, have held road opponents to only 43.6% shooting from the floor in those games. I don't care what anyone says, Syracuse is a very good perimeter defending team as their road opponents this season have shot only 29.5% from three point range and Seton Hall sucks on the road from three point range making only 30.4% of their three pointers on the road this season. I also want to point out that Seton Hall is not as aggressive around the basket on the road as they have been to the free throw line only 17.7 times per game away from home and that is not enough to force Syracuse deep into their bench. The Pirates have a tough team but they are horrendous rebounding wise on the road bringing down only 28.9 rebounds per game and that's good news for Syracuse who's main issue on the road has been rebounding and the fact that they always get beat on the boards. The Seton Hall guards don't have what it takes to win this game as they average only 11.5 assists per game on the road this season and the only way to beat Syracuse is to have good ball distribution from the perimeter to the inside and Seton Hall just doesn't have that. I think the Pirates can keep this close early on but their lack of a pure scorer is going to hurt them and Syracuse is going to shut the door defensively.

The Syracuse Orangemen have probably been the most frustrating team to bet on in college basketball this season according to some writers on some capping websites but I have had success both betting on them and against them so I am confident heading into this game. Fuck betting on Syracuse at home and fuck betting on them when they play on the road. Betting on them when they play on neutral courts is where it's at as Syracuse is averaging a whopping 87.7 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.9% from the floor so I think they can kick some ass. Seton Hall's defense on neutral courts has been good and they have allowed only 68.0 points per game on neutral courts this season and held their opponents at bay in terms of shooting from the floor but I don't think they can keep up with the barrage of points coming from Syracuse tonight. The Orangemen are shooting 36.6% from three point range on neutral courts on 8.7 three pointers made per game this season and that is going to be a huge problem for Seton Hall. If the Pirates choose to defend the perimeter and force Cuse inside, that works just as well as the Orangemen have been to the free throw line a fuckin crazy 37.0 times per game this season when playing on a neutral court while Seton Hall's interior defense has been terrible and their neutral court opponents have been to the line 30.8 times per game this season. Can you say foul trouble or what??? On top of that Syracuse has brought down 35.3 rebounds per game on neutral courts this season and are going up against a Seton Hall team that has allowed 14.0 offensive rebounds per game on neutral courts and 37.8 rebounds per game in those games. The Syracuse guards are amongst the best in the Nation averaging 17.3 assists per game on neutral courts while Seton Hall's defense sucks ass and have allowed their neutral court opponents to average 15.2 assists per neutral court game this season. These guys are so screwed. Syracuse is going to run, run and run some more and they are going to drop three point bombs left and right in this game. I think the Orange are going to open some eyes in this game and go on their usualy Big East Tournament wrecking mission. Get ready!!!

In their only meeting this season, these two teams played against each other in December in Syracuse and that was the Orangemen's best home win of the year as they scored 100 points and beat the Pirates by 24 points. How can you not see the same thing happening here againt tonight? MSG is where it's at for the Orangemen. Seton Hall has been on an ATS tear lately and it surprises me that nobody is on them tonight because they have played good basketball. Having said that, I don't trust Seton Hall when doubted by oddsmakers on the big stage as they come into this game 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog on a neutral site and they have sucked ass when playing on neutral sites going 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games. Syracuse on the other hand has been on and off all season in terms of covering spreads but they are on fire right now going 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. The Orangemen have always had success against Seton Hall going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the favorite has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings. I have no idea how anyone can go against Syracuse tonight because this is a huge matchup problem for the Pirates and the Orangemen are going to walk all over these guys like it was the first game they played in a new season with brand new players. I should make this a huge unit play but I will keep things controlled and enjoy a big Syracuse win here.

Trend of the Game: Seton Hall is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games played on a neutral site.


Syracuse 88, Seton Hall 69




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

Monday, March 11


View attachment 6622 Washington State Cougars -9 (10 Units) View attachment 6621

The Oregon Ducks made me some cash this season but they have also been a very fun team to fade and I plan on continuing to fade them right through the end of this season because these guys are as misfit as it gets and I feel bad for a guy like Tajuan Porter. If they are away from home, you can forget about this team showing up. Oregon comes into this game averaging a pathetic 63.8 points per away game this season and in those games away from home they have managed to shoot only 39.9% from the floor which is really bad considering the NCAA average is 43.4% from the floor. Washington State doesn't score much but they are very good defensively and even with their tough road schedule, they managed to allow only 62.7 points per away game this season and allowed those opponents to shoot only 42.4% from the floor in those games. All the Ducks really have going for them on the road is their ability to make three point shots, something they have done well and something the Cougars have struggled to defense away from home. However, you cannot win games or cover games on three point shooting alone and unless Oregon can get to the free throw line a lot more than 17.3 times per away game like they have all season on the road, they are not coming close here. They shoot only 65.9% from the free throw line in those games while Washington State has allowed their road opponents this season to go to the line only 17.5 times per game. I don't see the Ducks getting more than one chance to score at a time as they have brought down only 26.2 rebounds per away game this season and have to face a Washington State team that defends their basket like crazy and has allowed only 7.5 offensive rebounds against per game on the road this season. The Ducks guard play has been brutal on the road where they average only 11.3 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over 15.0 times which should help the Cougars force more turnovers than they did defensively away from home all season. I think Washington State has enough interior presence to force the Ducks to continue jacking up bad shots from the outside and as long as they don't allow Oregon to control the paint in this game, I just don't see the Ducks getting anyhting done offensively against this complex defense. Go home Ducks I'm sick of you guys.

The Washington State Cougars are a team I refused to bet on when they played away from home this season but I am changing my philosophy a little bit here and going to take them in the opening round of the PAC 10 Conference tournament. I am taking them here because I think they can surprise a few people in this tournament with their boring style of offense and boring style of basketball in general. The Cougars come into this game averaging 62.6 points per game in their last five games but that is their style of basketball and is actually better than what they have done most of the season. The Cougars have shot only 43.6% from the floor in those games but again this is how they play. Let me just tell you right now that Washington State is going to score some points tonight against this Oregon team that has allowed 76.2 points per game in their last five games and that have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 52.0% from the floor in those games. WOW! The Cougars don't take all that many three point shots but should they wish to change that tonight they should know that Oregon have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 35.5% from three point range and some of these Washington State players might catch fire in a hurry tonight. Oregon's interior defense is brutal as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 19.6 times per game in their last five games and I love the fact that in those games the Cougars are shooting 75.3% from the free throw line because if they get aggressive here they are going to score a bunch of points. For the first time in a long time I think Washington State can dominate the battle of the boards as they are going up against a Ducks team that has allowed 32.4 rebounds per game in their last five games. This game is going to be won and covered by the Cougars because of their recent guard play. They average 14.0 assists per game in their last five games while turning the ball over only 10.8 times per game in those games and that has killed the Ducks all season as they have allowed 15.2 assists against per game in their last five games despite forcing a bunch of turnovers. If you can handle the ball and avoid turnovers, Oregon cannot ball with you and I really think we are going to see how effective the overall game of Washington State can be in this tournament and in the big dance should they make it. I think they win big.

Anyone who follows this conference knows that beating the same team three times in one season is nowhere near impossible. I mean Washington State already has two wins against the Ducks this season beating them by 29 points at home about a month ago and then beating them by 12 on the road back in January. Both teams have been horrendous to bet on this season which is why it may have been wise to stay away from this but I simply could not resist backing the Cougars against such a bad team. Oregon comes into this game having covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 games overall and they are only 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They are also only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus PAC 10 Conference opponents and have managed to cover the spread in only 6 of their last 29 games versus a team that has a winning straight up record on the season. Oregon is also a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games, they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss the game before and they are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams. Washington State on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite and they have kicked some serious ATS ass against teams with a bad record on the year. I think their style of basketball sucks but it will frustrate the Ducks one more time this season and I will be making some money fading this team yet again.

Trend of the Game: Oregon is 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus teams with a straight up winning record.


Washington State 64, Oregon 51




:toast:




That's all for today, GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!
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[C-LO]

GL to you as well big man! I may not bet all of your play station games but I like looking at them! Gives it a defferent twist. GL this weekend and lets tear it up in teh tourney!

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Depaul +9.5
Baylor -1
St. John's +7.5
Colorado +14
Iowa State +10.5
West Virginia -5.5
Stanford -6.5
Syracuse -6.5
Washington State -9


5-2 ATS today with pending




:toast:

 

[miw1]

are you still confident about that Wash St. pick?

 

[MistaFlava]

yes I am all over them, good luck