MistaFlava's CBB Tournament Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/5-1 ATS yesterday)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 5-1 ATS (+39.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 116-109-4 ATS (+0.80 Units)

Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

-------------------------------------------

Wednesday, March 18


NIT Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6677 Miami-Florida Hurricanes +2.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6676

The Miami Hurricanes are coming off a disappointing regular season and I know a lot of these guys expected to make the NCAA Tournament at the beginning of the year. Having said that, as many have discussed the last few weeks, the Hurricanes just don't belong in the field of 65 and that is why they are playing where they are playing. The Canes come into this game averaging 72.1 points per game this season and they managed that despite shooting only 42.6% from the floor on the year. Well I think the Friars are in for a surprise if they decided to run with Miami because Providence has allowed 76.7 points per game this season and their opponents on the year have managed to shoot 44.7% from the floor in those games. We all know what Jack McClinton is capable of doing if he gets hot from beyond the arc as the Hurricanes have made 36.9% of their three point shots this season and have averaged 7.8 three pointers made per game this season (both well above the NCAA average). Providence has allowed opponents to shoot 34.1% from beyond the arc this season and they have allowed an above average 7.1 three point shots made per game in those games. That could be a big problem. Miami also loves to attack the basket as they have been to the free throw line 22.4 times per game this season but I recommend sticking to outside shots as Providence has decent interior defense. It's actually rare that you find better rebounding teams than Providence but Miami is one of them as they bring down 35.6 rebounds per game on 12.2 offensive rebounds per game this season while Providence has allowed opponents this season to bring down 32.7 rebounds per game on 11.8 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Despite having McClinton on their side, the Canes are not the best ball moving team around but they also take care of the ball turning it over only 12.9 times per game this season (below NCAA average) and the Friars have had problems defending perimeter to inside passing, something Miami will love seeing how ACC defenses don't allow many assists per game but Providence has allowed 15.8 assists per game this season. As long as they take care of the ball and are as aggressive as the Friars in this game, Miami is going to score some points and they are going to show Providence what ACC ball is all about. They are just as tough as them and can score a ton of points from the outside.

The Providence Friars thought they had a chance to get into the NCAA Tournament and some still held out hope on decision Sunday but their resume just wasn't good enough to make it in and despite beating all the teams they should beat this season, they did not pull off enough upsets of higher ranked opponents and that hurt them in the long run. The Friars come into this game averaging 78.5 points per game this season while shooting 45.3% from the floor in those games. Having said that, they have to play against a Miami defense that has allowed only 66.3 points per game this seasno and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 39.9% from the floor in those games. Despite taking 34.9% of their shot attempts this season from beyond the arc, Miami has managed to make only 32.2% of their three point shot attempts on the season and that is a problem against a Miami team that has held opponents to 32.3% shooting from three point range this season. I don't see how the Friars can keep up with Providence if they can't make their three point shots. Sure they love pounding away inside and sure they do get to the free throw line quite a few times per game this season but they are a below average free throw shooting team at 68.0% on the year and Miami's interior defense is very strong having allowed only 17.6 trips to the free throw line per game this season which is impressive playing in the ACC Conference. I talked about Miami being a very good rebounding team and that's good because Providence is also a very good rebounding team. Having said that, you have to love the fact that Miami has allowed opponents this season to bring down only 31.1 rebounds per game this season which is below the NCAA average for rebounds per game. Without second chance points and trips to the free throw line, I think Providence is in trouble in this game. Even though they have guards that play with fire and can really move the ball around, this team turns the ball over 14.4 times per game this season and if they cannot keep up against this solid Miami zone defense, they are going to play from behind most of the night. The Hurricanes don't force many turnovers per game but they do keep opponents outside and they do force enough bad shots to give themselves a chance on the defensive end of things. Providence has been good all season when it comes to being a short point favorite but I think that comes to and end tonight as many of you will be surprised as to how poorly they match up with the Hurricanes in this game.

These two teams have met each other quite a few times over the years and I can tell you right now that their last meeting was in 2007 and it was here and Miami found a way to win that game on the road despite McClinton scoring only 8 points. Brian Asbury and James Dews combined for 33 of Miami's 64 points in that game so you have to like their chances here tonight. Most of you have not watched Miami play outside of the very tough ACC Conference because I see that more than 60% of the public is on Providence tonight even though Miami is a whopping 15-3 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games...impressive stuff. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and they have had plenty of time to rest coming off a disappointing opening round loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Conference tournament. The Hurricanes are also 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games coming off an ATS loss the game before and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Providence on the other hand has loved this sort of line all season long but how can you bet on a team that is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall this season or a team that is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Screw home court advantage here as this team is only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and they are a pathetic 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus teams that have a winning straight up record on the season. Check this out. The road team in this series is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Providence.

Trend of the Game: Miami is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.


Miami 79, Providence 73




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

CBI Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6678 Charleston Cougars +1 (10 Units) View attachment 6679

The Charleston Cougars were supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament and the entire team knows it. Having said that, despite being disappointed at ending up in the CBI Tournament instead, I am sure these guys have had time to get over the loss to Chattanooga in the conference tournament and with the field in this CBI, they have a great chance to win it all, something they never could have accomplished playing in the NCAA's. The big problem with the Cougars has been their shooting as of late but let me tell you that away from home they average 78.4 points per game this season and they have managed to shoot a whopping 47.7% in those games so don't worry about their poor shooting as of late. Troy on the other hand has allowed 75.4 points per home game this season and they have allowed those visiting opponents to shoot 45.9% from the floor which makes me think they are going to run into some problems in this game. Charleston is a very three point shooting team on the road having made 36.7% of their shots from beyond the arc this season on a whopping 8.0 three point shots made per game and Troy's perimeter defense has been horrendous at home where they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.0% from downtown and allowed a whopping 9.7 three point shots made per home game this season. OUCH! I have to say that Troy's interior defense at home is pretty good and they don't allow much action down low but the Cougars still get to the line 18.9 times per away game and they make 69.1% of their free throws in those games. For a team that shoots that many three pointers a game, Charleston is pretty good on the boards having brought down 32.1 rebounds per game on the road this season averaging 9.8 offensive rebounds per road game this season. The Trojans have allowed 32.2 rebounds against per home game and if the Cougars dominate the boards and outside shooting, they will win this game easy. I am a big fan of the Charleston guard play as they average 13.4 assists per away game this season and turn the ball over only 11.3 times per game in those games which is just the kind of ball handling you need against a Troy defense that forces a lot of turnovers at home but that also allow a lot of open looks as opponents average 14.7 assists per game against them at home this season. As long as Charleston keeps pushing the ball in this game and as long as they have patience on offense, the open looks are going to be there and the Cougars should have no problems dropping bombs from downtown all night long on this defense. I really like Charleston in this matchup.

The Troy Trojans are a virtual unknown in the world of college basketball because not too many people follow the Sun Belt Conference and for those that do you will know that the Trojans are in trouble tonight in what is a very bad matchup for the opening round of this tournament. Troy would have been better off playing against a slower paced team with poor shooting but instead they draw a team that loves to shoot things out. Troy comes into this game averaging 78.4 points per game in their last five games and they have shot 47.9% from the floor in those games which looks very good on paper but I think the Trojans take a few steps back tonight against a Charleston defense that has allowed only 58.5 points per game in their last five games and that has allowed those five opponents to shoot only 35.8% from the floor (well below the 43.6% NCAA average for those games). I can tell you that Troy has been red hot from beyond the arc the last five games and I mean red hot but having said that, Charleston's perimeter defense is very tough, they are very aggressive and their last five opponents have managed to shoot only 24.7% from three point range and managed to make only 4.6 three point shots per game in those games. Troy has also done a very good job in recent games of getting to the line and making their free throws but Charleston's interior defense has been just as good as their perimeter defense as of late, allowing only 18.6 trips to the free throw line per game in their last five games so I think Troy is going to struggle at times in this game and keeping up with Charleston is a lot tougher than it looks. What concerns me most about the Trojans here is the fact that they cannot rebound the way they need to rebound against a team like Charleston, having brought down only 28.6 rebounds per game in their last five games on only 7.6 offensive rebounds in those games. That won't work with this Cougars defense because every missed shot and every one and done is going to cost these guys a chance to keep the game close. The Trojans guard play has been good as of late, they have moved the ball well and kept the turnovers to a minimum but it's almost impossible to move the ball against this Charleston defense that has allowed only 9.8 assists per game in their last five games and that averages 7.0 steals per game in those games. The Cougars put a lot of pressure on opponents, they force a lot of bad shots, they are very tough inside with 5.6 blocks per game in their last five games and it's not easy to score points against this high pressure defense. I think Troy is going to find this matchup frustrating and it won't take long for them to get down by quite a few points.

Both of these teams had plenty of rest between their early exits from their conference tournaments and this opening round game today so there is no excuse of fatigue or anything like that. You could argue that the home team would be the play in a game like this but overall I think the Cougars have the much more athletic team and they are going to have a ton more energy on this court tonight than Troy (who have lost three games at home this season anyways). I think this is a great spot to back the Cougars seeing how they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog and they have been an outstanding wager on the road all season going 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games this season. Charleston is also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus an opponents with a winning home record on the season. The Cougars are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus non-conference opponents, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up loss and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a straight up winning record on the season. Troy is a good wager but only in conference play as they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games and they have not played well on Wedsneday nights for some reason covering only 1 of their last 7 games. Charleston is in a great spot to win this game and that's just what they are going to do here.

Trend of the Game: Charleston is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.


Charleston 78, Troy 65




More selections to come...
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[knucklecup]

Nice night last night, buddy @)

 

[NeedALiving]

love the write ups, with you on miami!

 

[MistaFlava]

NIT Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6680 Georgetown Hoyas +3.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6681

The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off one of their worst seasons in recent memory. Blame it on rebuilding or blame it on injuries or blame it on just bad luck overall, I don't know. I think it was more of a team chemistry issue and what's funny is that they are going up against another one of the most underachieving teams in the Nation this past season for a spot in the second round of this tournament. Georgetown comes into this game averaging 69.2 points per game this season playing in the very tough Big East Conference and in those games they managed to shoot 46.6% from the floor which is pretty damn good and which should give them a chance in this game. I say that because Baylor has allowed 70.9 points per game this season and allowed opponents to shoot an above average 43.9% from the floor in those games which means their opponents always have a chance. The Hoyas are not a big three point shooting team but they are decent from beyond the arc while Baylor has allowed opponents to make 34.6% of their three point shots this season. The Hoyas have a lot more interest in playing the ball inside in this game as they have been to the free throw line 21.7 times per game this season and have managed to make a very decent 71.2% of those free throws on the season. Baylor's interior defense is not that good as they do struggle against good inside teams as their opponents this season have been to the free throw line 21.1 times per game and if Georgetown can get the ball down low enough times in this game, they are going to have success scoring. Much like Baylor, the Hoyas are not a big team and rebounding is not a big part of their game which is probably why they have struggled at times this season. Having said that, Baylor has allowed their opponents this season to bring down 31.5 rebounds per game on 9.8 offensive rebounds in those games and if you give the Hoyas more chances than they deserves, they are going to make you pay for it. Their guard play has been good when it comes to moving the ball as they average 13.6 assists per game this season and I think they can have success finding the open lanes off screens as Baylor has allowed their opponents to average 13.1 assists per game this season. The problem with Georgetown has been turnovers this season but they should be fine tonight as Baylor doesn't force more than the average amount of turnovers having forced only 13.6 turnovers per game this season. I think both teams matchup well enough that this game is going to be close and Georgetown is going to win the inside battles here (that should be the deciding factor in this game). The Bears are going to be tired after a long run in the Big 12 Tournament and that should allow a well rested Hoyas team to go on unmatched runs in this game.

The Baylor Bears were supposed to be a TOP 25 team that would have no problems getting into the NCAA Tournament at this time of the year but things did not go as planned this past season and the Bears were stuck trying to win the Big 12 Tournament as underdogs to have a shot at making the Big Dance. Well they came up one game short losing to Missouri in the Finals and believe me when I say this team is going to be a) still disappointed and b) still tired from that long tournament run. The Bears come into this game averaging 66.8 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting 44.9% from the floor in those games. Not bad but not all that good either. However, I expect Baylor's offensive problems to continue tonight against a Georgetown team that has allowed only 58.6 points per game in their last five games and that have allowed opponents in those games to shoot only 37.0% from the floor (both well below the NCAA averages). The only way Baylor has won games this season has been by hitting their three point shots and pulling away from opponents early but in their last five games the Bears have made only 32.1% of their three point shots. Georgetown's perimeter defense is very good and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 29.9% from three point range on only 4.6 three point shots made per game in those games. When the Bears don't make their outside shots they don't have many other options as their inside paint game is weak and they have been to the free throw line only 16.6 times per game in their last five games. That's a problem because the Hoyas have somewhat struggled with their interior defense but only against teams who can expose that and Baylor is not one of those teams. The Bears are a decent rebounding team but not good enough to give the Hoyas problems and that is one of the biggest reasons Baylor won't be able to build on whatever lead they can grab in this game. The Bears guard play has been piss poor in terms of ball movement as they have averaged only 9.6 assists per game in their last five games and that is going to be a big problems against a Georgetown defense that is very good at taking away passing options and lanes having allowed only 9.0 assists against per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 12.8 assists per game in the last five games). The Hoyas have been very aggressive defensively and it has paid off with their 14.8 turnovers forced per game in their last five games and 8.4 steals per game in those games. Baylor cannot do much inside against a team that has averaged 5.0 blocks per game in their last five games. I don't know how Baylor is going to find motivation to win this game and even if they do, physically speaking it won't be easy against this very tough Georgetown team that is looking to make an impression heading into next season.

So what an interesting matchup we have of two underachieving teams that were not supposed to be playing in the NIT Tournament come this time of the year. Sure Baylor was the better of the two teams in the regular season but Georgetown had it tougher in the Big East and like I have said many times now today, Baylor is tired from the Big 12 Tournament and they will find it tough to be motivated for this game. I know on the ATS side of things the Hoyas look like a horrendous bet because of the way they played this past season but the Big East Conference can be nasty and the Hoyas get a new lease on life in this tournament. We have seen a lot of young and underachieving teams have breakout performances in NIT Tournaments of the past and this should be no different. The Hoyas have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a Wednesday (with one push in there) so this would be the spot to bet on them. What's also good about betting on Georgetown here is that Baylor has been almost just as bad as the Hoyas going 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall (despite their nice little run in the Big 12 Tournament) and they are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a straight up winning record on the season. Baylor is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss the game before, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games that follow an ATS loss the game before, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Need I say more? The Bears are a tired team, their season is already shot and this game won't mean much to them in the end. The Hoyas should roll here. Don't be fooled by the Bears here.

Trend of the Game: Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.


Georgetown 69, Baylor 65




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

Also playing


Oregon State +1.5 (10 Units)




:toast:


I had a writeup for this but my laptop shut off out of nowhere, I lost everything I had written even with FireFox and now I wasted my time. To make a long writeup shorts, Houston sucks on the road, I don't see their interested in this game being played in the West Coast and their poor shooting on the road is going to screw them over here.

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Miami-Florida +2.5
Charleston +1
Georgetown +3.5
Oregon State +1.5




:toast:


Good Luck to everyone tonight!

 

[NeedALiving]

Great Job today, looks good for the rest of the night. Been tailing you lately, making a lot of money


No Pressure Though! :toast: <><> :drink:

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Miami-Florida +2.5
Charleston +1
Georgetown +3.5
Oregon State +1.5


2-0 ATS today with pending

7-1 ATS in NCAA Tournaments




:toast:


Things are looking very good right now. Great start to my tournament season, looking to stay hot and bring all that momentum into tomorrow. Let's finish this night strong.

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Miami-Florida +2.5
Charleston +1
Georgetown +3.5
Oregon State +1.5


3-0 ATS today with pending

8-1 ATS in NCAA Tournaments




:toast:


Things are looking very good right now. Great start to my tournament season, looking to stay hot and bring all that momentum into tomorrow. Let's finish this night strong.

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Miami-Florida +2.5
Charleston +1
Georgetown +3.5
Oregon State +1.5


4-0 ATS today

9-1 ATS in NCAA Tournaments




:toast:


What can I say. I am on fire heading into the big dance and could not have picked a better time to get hot. Congrats to all winners tonight, this was too fuckin sweet.

 

[PRC]

Flav my man! when you posting tomorrow, Ill be in class hwen the first games are starting so need to play before that

 

[VinnytheWorm]

Flav. Keep it going! <<

 

[Twisted]

NICE few days!!!

Hope it lasts!!

:toast: