MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 29-14-1 ATS (+136.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 140-122-4 ATS (+97.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 140-122-4 ATS (+97.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, March 24
NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals
View attachment 6764 Baylor Bears +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6765
NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals
View attachment 6764 Baylor Bears +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6765
This is the third time I place a bet on a Baylor Bears game in this tournament and I think I am going to continue betting on their games until I get screwed by someone. I was on Georgetown in the opener and won and then I was on Baylor at Virginia Tech and won I said it from the very beginning of this tournament that if Baylor found a way to get by the Hoyas that they would be the most dangerous team in this tournament only because they have TOP 25 talent on this team and badly underachieved all regular season so this is their time to shine. The Bears come into this game averaging 75.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting a very decent 46.4% from the floor in those games. If you want to shoot things out with these guys, I don't recommend it. Auburn comes into this game with some good defensive numbers for the year having allowed opponents to shoot only 41.0% from the floor and allowed only 66.1 points per game but the SEC was weak this year folks so don't get too excited. We all know how much Baylor loves to shoot the three ball as they have made 36.0% of their shots from beyond the arc this season and average 8.0 three point shots made per game which makes them deadly from the outside against a team like Auburn that has allowed 7.4 three point shots made per game on the season (the NCAA average is 6.3 per game). Not only do the Bears have a great perimeter game but they have guys who can cut to the basket and draw fouls and they have some action in the paint which makes them tough to stop as they have been to the free throw line 22.1 times per game this season and made 70.8% of their free throws on the season. Well Auburn is screwed if you ask me because their interior defense has struggled against aggressive teams and they have sent their opponents this season to the free throw line 20.5 times per game. Having said all of that Baylor is not that big of a team and they don't dominate on the offensive or defensive boards but they do shoot well enough that it doesn't matter and Auburn has been sloppy on the glass quite a few times this season allowing 32.9 rebounds against per game, well above the NCAA average for rebounds per game. The Bears love to run and gun and that means not a lot of ball movement and that means not a lot of turnovers by their guards as this team has turned the ball over only 12.7 times per game and that is huge because Auburn's success this season has been based on their ability to force turnovers as they have forced 16.2 turnovers per game. Well the Bears are ready for the pressure and they have players that know how to handle the ball under pressure and that know how to work around the trap and move the ball inside and into the paint. I really don't think this Auburn defense can be any better than the Virginia Tech defense we saw on the weekend and we all know how badly the Hokies struggled against this very diverse offense of the Bears. Expect Auburn to have the same kind of problems in this game as Baylor comes out gunning and the Tigers struggle to stop them much like everyone else has as well.
The Auburn Tigers actually impressed me this season although they lacked the consistency needed to be considered for the NCAA Tournament and that would be why they are playing on a Tuesday Night and never got the chance to showcase their skills on a Thursday or Friday. Auburn blew the socks off Tulsa in their second round game but they struggled against Tennessee-Martin in the opener and I don't think the Golden Hurricane came into their game looking for anything more than just some extra practice for next season. Auburn comes into this game averaging 75.2 points per game in their last five games but they have shot only 43.5% from the floor in those games and if you are going to shoot things out with Bears, you better make sure you shoot the ball a whole lot better than below the NCAA average for the last five games. Much like Baylor, the Tigers love shooting the ball from the outside but they have made only 34.2% of their three point shots the last five games and have to go up against a Baylor defense that has held their last five opponents to only 33.9% shooting from three point range in those games. Much like Baylor the Tigers are very strong inside and they have a lot of guys who can cut to the hoop and draw fouls or create havoc inside but having said that, Baylor has done a tremendous job in the paint defensively the last five games, they have completely shut things down inside and allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line only 16.2 times per game (3.8 times below the NCAA average for those games). Not only that, the difference in this game is going to be free throw shooting because Baylor is a good free throw shooting team while Auburn has made only 63.3% of their free throws in their last five games and that is a big time problem for this team. They are generally a good rebounding team because they miss so many shots but their toughness up front is a big question mark as they have brought down only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and they have to go up against a Baylor team that has been very good on the boards and has allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 30.0 rebounds per game in those games. I have to admit that Auburn has some pretty damn good guard play in recent games and I don't think Baylor's defense is going to do much to disrupt that guard play but that's only because the Bears should already be up in the game at that point and I don't think Baylor minds shooting things out with Auburn at all seeing the way they shoot from the free throw line. The Tigers are a good team but I just don't trust them against a Big 12 Conference team that can not only out-muscle opponents but they can outrun them and make life tough for the Tigers in this game. Auburn had a good season but they have met their match here and have to face the team that wants to win this tournament the most out of all the teams left.
This should be an interesting matchups because both teams are very similar on both sides of the court. They can both knock down the three ball with some ease, they can both get to the free throw line with ease, they can both force turnovers with ease and the list just goes on and on about how similar these two teams are. So this should be an interesting matchup tonight but what you have to consider is that Baylor did all that playing in the Big 12 Conference this season while Auburn did all that playing weak SEC Conference opponents so I give the edge to the Bears who have regained their TOP 25 form everyone had them down as before the season started. Baylor comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and they are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. Baylor has also covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Auburn has been on fire at home this season and they have pretty much torn apart all opponents that have come through this place but this is a bit different against Baylor. If you are betting purely on ATS stats in this game then your pick is Auburn because they kick ass in non-conference play, they kick ass at home and they have been an ATS covering machine as of late so why the hell not? Well because Baylor is the better team overall and the Bears will find a way to get off to a quick start and win this game although it won't be as easy as the the Hokies game.
Trend of the Game: Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
Baylor 81, Auburn 79
More selections to come...
The Auburn Tigers actually impressed me this season although they lacked the consistency needed to be considered for the NCAA Tournament and that would be why they are playing on a Tuesday Night and never got the chance to showcase their skills on a Thursday or Friday. Auburn blew the socks off Tulsa in their second round game but they struggled against Tennessee-Martin in the opener and I don't think the Golden Hurricane came into their game looking for anything more than just some extra practice for next season. Auburn comes into this game averaging 75.2 points per game in their last five games but they have shot only 43.5% from the floor in those games and if you are going to shoot things out with Bears, you better make sure you shoot the ball a whole lot better than below the NCAA average for the last five games. Much like Baylor, the Tigers love shooting the ball from the outside but they have made only 34.2% of their three point shots the last five games and have to go up against a Baylor defense that has held their last five opponents to only 33.9% shooting from three point range in those games. Much like Baylor the Tigers are very strong inside and they have a lot of guys who can cut to the hoop and draw fouls or create havoc inside but having said that, Baylor has done a tremendous job in the paint defensively the last five games, they have completely shut things down inside and allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line only 16.2 times per game (3.8 times below the NCAA average for those games). Not only that, the difference in this game is going to be free throw shooting because Baylor is a good free throw shooting team while Auburn has made only 63.3% of their free throws in their last five games and that is a big time problem for this team. They are generally a good rebounding team because they miss so many shots but their toughness up front is a big question mark as they have brought down only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and they have to go up against a Baylor team that has been very good on the boards and has allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 30.0 rebounds per game in those games. I have to admit that Auburn has some pretty damn good guard play in recent games and I don't think Baylor's defense is going to do much to disrupt that guard play but that's only because the Bears should already be up in the game at that point and I don't think Baylor minds shooting things out with Auburn at all seeing the way they shoot from the free throw line. The Tigers are a good team but I just don't trust them against a Big 12 Conference team that can not only out-muscle opponents but they can outrun them and make life tough for the Tigers in this game. Auburn had a good season but they have met their match here and have to face the team that wants to win this tournament the most out of all the teams left.
This should be an interesting matchups because both teams are very similar on both sides of the court. They can both knock down the three ball with some ease, they can both get to the free throw line with ease, they can both force turnovers with ease and the list just goes on and on about how similar these two teams are. So this should be an interesting matchup tonight but what you have to consider is that Baylor did all that playing in the Big 12 Conference this season while Auburn did all that playing weak SEC Conference opponents so I give the edge to the Bears who have regained their TOP 25 form everyone had them down as before the season started. Baylor comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and they are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. Baylor has also covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Auburn has been on fire at home this season and they have pretty much torn apart all opponents that have come through this place but this is a bit different against Baylor. If you are betting purely on ATS stats in this game then your pick is Auburn because they kick ass in non-conference play, they kick ass at home and they have been an ATS covering machine as of late so why the hell not? Well because Baylor is the better team overall and the Bears will find a way to get off to a quick start and win this game although it won't be as easy as the the Hokies game.
Trend of the Game: Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
Baylor 81, Auburn 79
More selections to come...
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