MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 40-26-1 ATS (+244.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 151-134-4 ATS (+206.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
March came and March went. I started off with a bang, had a few 5-0 ATS, 7-1 ATS and 6-2 ATS days early in the tournament but the law of averages evened things out and I came back down to earth. No worries there. There are three games left in the season and my ideal finish would be to sweep the board and make some big time cash. It won't be easy because some of these teams have been surprising but it should be fun.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 151-134-4 ATS (+206.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
March came and March went. I started off with a bang, had a few 5-0 ATS, 7-1 ATS and 6-2 ATS days early in the tournament but the law of averages evened things out and I came back down to earth. No worries there. There are three games left in the season and my ideal finish would be to sweep the board and make some big time cash. It won't be easy because some of these teams have been surprising but it should be fun.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Saturday, April 4
NCAA Tournament - Final Four
View attachment 6860 Michigan State Spartans +4 (50 Units) View attachment 6861
***PLAY OF THE FINAL FOUR***
NCAA Tournament - Final Four
View attachment 6860 Michigan State Spartans +4 (50 Units) View attachment 6861
***PLAY OF THE FINAL FOUR***
The Michigan State Spartans have probably been the most impressive road team left in this tournament (and I mean throughout the course of the regular season and in tournament play). I mean apart from their loss at Purdue late in the season, this team was untouchable away from home and I don't know what more they could do to show that they belong and that they have a good enough balance of experienced players versus young up-and-coming players to win big time games. They have one of the best coaches in the Nation and believe me when I say that this is a virtual home game for these guys as we are in Detroit, Michigan. The Spartans come into this game averaging 70.4 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have surprisingly shot only 42.2% from the floor but it got them this far. It's how effective they are when it counts most. You are not going to beat Connecticut from the perimeter because they guard everything outside and make life miserable for teams who rely on three point shooting. Having said that, Michigan State took only 26.5% of their shot attempts from three point range the last five games and they are not about jacking shots from the outside. The Spartans have been very aggressive inside this tournament averaging 20.0 trips to the free throw line and I have to say now that they are the best free throw shooting team left in this tournament having made 78.0% of their free throws the last five games. Surprisingly enough teams have had success inside against the Huskies as Connecticut has allowed their last five opponents to make it to the free throw line 20.2 times per game and as long as Michigan State keeps their composure, plays their tough defense and avoids wasting time with outside shots, the Spartans are going to make a serious game of this. You also have to love the fact that Michigan State averages 34.8 rebounds per game in their last five games, something very impressive considering they play in the Big Ten Conference. Sure they have to face the best rebounding team in the Nation but that's fine because in those last five games, Michigan State has brought down 12.6 offensive rebounds per game while the Huskies have allowed their last five opponents to bring down 11.6 offensive rebounds per game and 33.6 total rebounds per game. That's a lot of second chances for this Spartans team and like they showed against Louisville if you let these guys have second and third chances off their misses (because they are not a great shooting team), you are not going to beat them and it will cost you in the end. For those worried about Michigan State playing beating a much bigger and tougher team, worry no more because their last five opponents all average 5.4 blocks per game and Tom Izzo has been there done that in the past. The Spartans are getting tremendous guard play right now as they average a whopping 15.6 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over only 11.8 times per game in those games. Now the reason Connecticut was not able to blow away a team like Missouri is because they don't force enough turnovers without Dyson (although they have been very good without him). The Huskies have forced only 11.4 turnovers per game their last five games and have allowed a whopping 16.2 assists per game in those games which is well above the 12.8 NCAA average for assists allowed per game. I don't care how good this Huskies defense is and I don't care that their last five opponents have shot only 36.9% from the floor because Michigan State is not all about high shooting percentages and yet UConn has still allowed 75.0 points per game in those last five games. I think the Huskies interior presence doesn't mean much in this game because Michigan State is too methodical in their attack and believe me when I say that this crowd is going to be PRO MICHIGAN STATE! Great spot for the Spartans here guys.
The Connecticut Huskies have been one of my 'go to' wagers all season long when I needed out of a rut or needed something good to go down but since betting on them in the second round of this tournament, something has told me to stay away. I was on Missouri in their Elite Eight matchup and the Tigers were covering 90% of the game until blowing it late and also missing a wide open layup at the buzzer to cover the spread. The difference between Michigan State and Missouri is that the Spartans are very sound fundamentally on defense and they have a lot more tournament experience. Sure the Huskies have tons of experience too, but experience versus experience can only mean and oustanding game that should stay close for the most part. Connecticut comes into this game averaging a crazy 93.2 points per game in their last five games while shooting 48.2% from the floor in those games. However, that is not going to happen against a Michigan State team that has made it this far by allowing only 65.4 points per game in their last five games and allowing those opponents to shoot 43.4% from the floor in those games. Much like Michigan State, it's rare that you see Connecticut jack up three point shot attempts in games because they are all about interior size and getting things done in the paint. That's fine as well because Michigan State has made it this far by shutting down the perimeter, allowing only 4.8 three point shots made per game in their last five games, allowing only 14.2 three point shot attempts per game in those games and taking care of business inside against these bigger and tougher teams. So although I think the Huskies are a good shooting team, they have made only 26.1% of their three point shots in the last five games on only 4.6 three pointers made per game. Also, as good as they are inside, it's going to eventually be a problem that they shoot only 66.5% from the free throw line their last five games because they get to the line so much that their games end up coming down to free throw shooting. You might as well use your bench and foul their big guys all game if they are going to miss freebies. Michigan State has allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line only 19.0 times per game and their interior defense has been very solid. Sure they are going to have to have the game of their lives defending their basket and rebounding to avoid giving Connecticut their 40-50 rebounds per game (the Huskies average 49.6 rebounds per game in their last five games WTF???). Well the good news is that Michigan State is outstanding around their own basket and they have allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 27.4 rebounds per game and allowed them to bring down only 8.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Anytime you can hold UConn to a lower amount of second chances per game, you can definitely beat them. Defense means everything in a tournament like this and the Spartans have the better overall defense. The Huskies have tremendous guard play from Kemba Walker and AJ Price but they turn the ball over 15.2 times per game in their last five games, their opponents in those games have averaged 8.0 steals per game and Michigan State is going to force turnovers as they have 8.0 steals per game in their last five games. The Spartans don't have much going inside in terms of size and ability to keep opponents out but you have to work against this defense if you want to penetrate and just ask teams like Kansas how tough it was to try and get inside for a full 40 minutes of play. I know the Huskies are going to have a lot of fans here as well and I know they look destined to win the tournament after everyone said they would be gone come this time of the tournament but the bottom line is this team is playing some damn good basketball and although I am a fan of that, the Spartans are playing better basketball right now and defense will always win out over toughness and offense. UConn had a good season but this is a bad spot for them and I don't think they make it out of here alive. Should be a great one though.
Alright so the stage is set for the Spartans. Not only do they have big time home court advantage but they have a very good combination of senior players mixed with a bunch of very good young players. Could you ask more than to have them play in Detroit, Michigan? I mean the way this team has refused to go away and the way they have refused to lose is very impressive. Raymar Morgan is playing with a broken nose, Tom Izzo is coaching the way he did back when Mo Peterson and Mateen Cleaves were around for that NCAA Championship and everything in the book says the Spartans should win this game. I mean they match up very well with Connecticut and that seems to be something people are overlooking in this game. Michigan State has not covered the spread in their last four games versus teams with a straight up winning record. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Spartans have been too good as underdogs this season to go against them as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and can anyone think of a better team to bet on in the tournament the last 7-10 years than Michigan State, who are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games? I mean WOW! Sure UConn has played just as well in this tournament but I just don't see them getting away with the kind of defense they have shown the last five games. Sure it looks good on paper but I said before the tournament started that the minute the Huskies had to face a good coach...they were done and Tom Izzo is the first good coach they meet this tournament. This should be one hell of a game and I suggest you all get ready for some crazy action. MICHIGAN STATE TO THE BANK FOLKS!
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games.
Michigan State 74, Connecticut 71
One more selection to come...
The Connecticut Huskies have been one of my 'go to' wagers all season long when I needed out of a rut or needed something good to go down but since betting on them in the second round of this tournament, something has told me to stay away. I was on Missouri in their Elite Eight matchup and the Tigers were covering 90% of the game until blowing it late and also missing a wide open layup at the buzzer to cover the spread. The difference between Michigan State and Missouri is that the Spartans are very sound fundamentally on defense and they have a lot more tournament experience. Sure the Huskies have tons of experience too, but experience versus experience can only mean and oustanding game that should stay close for the most part. Connecticut comes into this game averaging a crazy 93.2 points per game in their last five games while shooting 48.2% from the floor in those games. However, that is not going to happen against a Michigan State team that has made it this far by allowing only 65.4 points per game in their last five games and allowing those opponents to shoot 43.4% from the floor in those games. Much like Michigan State, it's rare that you see Connecticut jack up three point shot attempts in games because they are all about interior size and getting things done in the paint. That's fine as well because Michigan State has made it this far by shutting down the perimeter, allowing only 4.8 three point shots made per game in their last five games, allowing only 14.2 three point shot attempts per game in those games and taking care of business inside against these bigger and tougher teams. So although I think the Huskies are a good shooting team, they have made only 26.1% of their three point shots in the last five games on only 4.6 three pointers made per game. Also, as good as they are inside, it's going to eventually be a problem that they shoot only 66.5% from the free throw line their last five games because they get to the line so much that their games end up coming down to free throw shooting. You might as well use your bench and foul their big guys all game if they are going to miss freebies. Michigan State has allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line only 19.0 times per game and their interior defense has been very solid. Sure they are going to have to have the game of their lives defending their basket and rebounding to avoid giving Connecticut their 40-50 rebounds per game (the Huskies average 49.6 rebounds per game in their last five games WTF???). Well the good news is that Michigan State is outstanding around their own basket and they have allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 27.4 rebounds per game and allowed them to bring down only 8.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Anytime you can hold UConn to a lower amount of second chances per game, you can definitely beat them. Defense means everything in a tournament like this and the Spartans have the better overall defense. The Huskies have tremendous guard play from Kemba Walker and AJ Price but they turn the ball over 15.2 times per game in their last five games, their opponents in those games have averaged 8.0 steals per game and Michigan State is going to force turnovers as they have 8.0 steals per game in their last five games. The Spartans don't have much going inside in terms of size and ability to keep opponents out but you have to work against this defense if you want to penetrate and just ask teams like Kansas how tough it was to try and get inside for a full 40 minutes of play. I know the Huskies are going to have a lot of fans here as well and I know they look destined to win the tournament after everyone said they would be gone come this time of the tournament but the bottom line is this team is playing some damn good basketball and although I am a fan of that, the Spartans are playing better basketball right now and defense will always win out over toughness and offense. UConn had a good season but this is a bad spot for them and I don't think they make it out of here alive. Should be a great one though.
Alright so the stage is set for the Spartans. Not only do they have big time home court advantage but they have a very good combination of senior players mixed with a bunch of very good young players. Could you ask more than to have them play in Detroit, Michigan? I mean the way this team has refused to go away and the way they have refused to lose is very impressive. Raymar Morgan is playing with a broken nose, Tom Izzo is coaching the way he did back when Mo Peterson and Mateen Cleaves were around for that NCAA Championship and everything in the book says the Spartans should win this game. I mean they match up very well with Connecticut and that seems to be something people are overlooking in this game. Michigan State has not covered the spread in their last four games versus teams with a straight up winning record. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Spartans have been too good as underdogs this season to go against them as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and can anyone think of a better team to bet on in the tournament the last 7-10 years than Michigan State, who are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games? I mean WOW! Sure UConn has played just as well in this tournament but I just don't see them getting away with the kind of defense they have shown the last five games. Sure it looks good on paper but I said before the tournament started that the minute the Huskies had to face a good coach...they were done and Tom Izzo is the first good coach they meet this tournament. This should be one hell of a game and I suggest you all get ready for some crazy action. MICHIGAN STATE TO THE BANK FOLKS!
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games.
Michigan State 74, Connecticut 71
One more selection to come...
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