MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 37-24-1 ATS (+236.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 148-132-4 ATS (+198.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up.
Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 148-132-4 ATS (+198.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up.
Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Monday, March 30
CBI Tournament - Final (Game 1)
View attachment 6827 Oregon State Beavers pk (10 Units) View attachment 6826
CBI Tournament - Final (Game 1)
View attachment 6827 Oregon State Beavers pk (10 Units) View attachment 6826
The UTEP Miners made me some serious cash in their semifinal win at Richmond last week and was all over them to win that game straight up (I predicted the exact score for the game at the same time). Having said that, I would back these guys against anyone else right now but not in this place because a) this is out West and this is a late start time for these guys and b) this is a three game series and believe me the home team is going to want to win the opening game. The Miners know it's not the end of the world if they don't win this game because they head back home Wesdnesday and no doubt will win that game if they lose here. I don't know how many times I have to say this...high scoring teams do not have success in this building, they have not all tournament. Check below please. The Miners come into this game averaging 80.2 points per game in their last five games and they shoot 44.5% from the floor in those games but the Beavers have been there done that with these kinds of offenses (this is only the third highest scoring offense they have faced at home in this tournament). Oregon State brings the pace of games down to their level as they have shown in the last five games by allowing their opponents to score 61.4 points per game and allowing those same opponents to shoot only 43.7% from the floor in those games. UTEP shoots the ball pretty damn well from the perimeter the last five games and they are dangerous if left open but the Beavers have allowed their last five opponents to make only 33.0% of their three point shots in those games. The Miners have one of the most underrated players in college basketball in Stefon Jackson and he has led this team all season. The Miners score that many points a game because they get to the line quite a bit per game and they make their free throws. Having said that, getting to the line against Oregon State is a lot easier said than done and the Beavers have allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line only 13.4 times per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 20.0 times per game during that span) and without their ability to drive the lane and get to the basket, these high scoring teams struggle for consistency against this home defense of the Beavers. On top of their scoring abilities, the Miners are also a very good rebounding team but that seldom matters against the Beavers in recent games because Oregon State slows the pace of the game down enough to eliminate any rebounding edge most high scoring teams have and their last five opponents average only 29.8 rebounds per game on only 8.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Despite having such a pure scorer like Stefon Jackson, the Miners don't have the best guard play I have ever seen as they run the floor and don't have much ball movement, averaging only 11.8 assists per game in their last five games while turning the ball over 12.4 times per game in those games. That's dangerous because the Beavers have kept games close by forcing turnovers and average 8.0 steals per game in their last five games, have forced 12.0 turnovers per game in those games and have allowed those opponents to average only 12.2 assists per game in those games. They do not have a big interior presence and you would think that this is a problem against a very aggressive offense like UTEP's but the Oregon State zone has been impossible to beat on a consistent basis in the last five games, their defense is what got them here and UTEP is no different than teams like Vermont, Houston or Stanford...who all came in here scoring a ton of points per game and lost.
The Oregon State Beavers had a horrendous regular season but they have found a new lease on life in the post-season and now they are two wins away from winning the CBI Tournament, something nobody in Corvallis ever imagined possible with the way they had played some games this year. Well just to let you know I have bet on them each and every home game this tournament and it has paid off big time as I am 3-0 ATS betting on these guys in the CBI Tournament and the home crowd has been rocking at all the game encouraging a team that is building a name for themselves and the PAC 10 Conference in this tournament. Believe it or not they are the life of the PAC 10 post-season right now. Oregon State comes into this game averaging 58.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot an above average 43.9% from the floor. Sure the numbers seem a bit low but if you have watched them play you know that everything moves at a snails pace in Oregon State games and this is their style of play. Their are a very defensive minded team and their offense feeds on their abilities to make stop on the defensive side of things. UTEP comes all the way out West for this game and they have allowed 74.2 points per game in their last five games and allowed those opponents to shoot only 41.9% from the floor. Having said that, they will be thrown off by the lack of pace in this game because Oregon State really controls the tempo of play at home and I don't see why they can't do it in this game here. What I like about Oregon State is that they do not waste offensive possessions by simply jacking up three point shot attempts as only 32.0% of their shot attempts the last five games were from beyond the arc. That has allowed them to recover from offensive misses by playing solid defense and again if you have watched this team in recent games, you will know that they make clutch three point shots despite not shooting well overall from beyond the arc. Oregon State doesn't attack the paint much, they get to the line only 12.6 times per game in their last five games but that is because they use up the full 35 seconds on each and every possession to shorten the game and take away the floor running abilities of these high scoring opponents. Having said that, UTEP is vulnerable in the paint as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.8 times per game and if the Beavers want, they can turn the tempo up but I really doubt you see that happen. Because of the slow pace of play, the Beavers don't grab many rebounds per game but again they average the amount of rebounds necessary in comparison to the amount of shots they attempt per game and I think the Beavers are going to have quite a few second chance opportunities in this game against a UTEP team that has allowed their last five opponents to grab 34.0 rebounds per game and that have allowed those opponents to grab 10.4 offensive rebounds per game. Much like the Miners the Beavers do not base their game on strong guard play because they do not have any true point guards who can run the show on this team but the Beavers do take their time on every possession which means guys hold onto the ball and are selective with their shots. UTEP has allowed their last five opponents to average 12.8 assists per game so the Beavers should have some success when they want to move the ball inside and get a little paint and penetration going in this game. I do however think Oregon State is going to keep taking mid-range jumpers or short range jumpers in this game because the Miners have a few big players who provided a strong inside presence but those big guys are clumsy when players are aggressive and again if the Beavers can find a way to be aggressive inside, they will win this game big. It's always scary to bet on this Beavers defense but just keep in mind that everything they do is based on their outstanding defense and for that reason alone they will always be around at the end of games. Some say their luck is going to run out at home tonight but I don't see why that would happen with this crowd supporting them. It won't be pretty as always but Oregon State has an ability to control the tempo of home games in this tournament and if they control things again tonight, UTEP is serious trouble.
Houston walked into this place in the first round of this tournament with their #38 ranked offense and their 76.8 points per game and lost (I was on Oregon State). Vermont walked into this place in the quarterfinals of this tournament with their #34 ranked offense and their 77.0 points per game and lost (I was on Oregon State). Stanford walked into this place in the semifinals of this tournament with their #84 ranked offense and their 72.9 points and lost (I was once again on Oregon State). So the fact that UTEP has to the #49 ranked offense and average 75.5 points per game means nothing. Not in this house, not against the Beavers. Keep that in mind please. I talked how good UTEP had been in non-conference action and I wasn't lying. But all good things have to come to an end at some point and no matter how well the Miners have played against out of conference opponents and no matter how well they have played on the road in recent games, this is a three game series and they don't have as much on the line tonight. Oregon State on the other hand knows they have to win tonight or they are done with. We all know they won't win in El Paso on Wednesday so the time to take them is now. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points (for those who can get the +1). They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win. Oregon State is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and they are playing their best basketball of the season and of the last few season right here and right now. TAKE THE BEAVERS IN GAME #1.
Trend of the Game: Oregon State is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Oregon State 72, UTEP 62
:toast:
Sure it's a boring night for betting as I have not gotten into NBA betting as of right now for the season but I think I am going to start on some MLB capping for the season, trying to get a feel for what is going on with what pitchers and what teams. I will have some plays for the NIT Tournament tomorrow night, should be some good games and I actually think this game tonight is going to be pretty damn good. Good Luck to all!
The Oregon State Beavers had a horrendous regular season but they have found a new lease on life in the post-season and now they are two wins away from winning the CBI Tournament, something nobody in Corvallis ever imagined possible with the way they had played some games this year. Well just to let you know I have bet on them each and every home game this tournament and it has paid off big time as I am 3-0 ATS betting on these guys in the CBI Tournament and the home crowd has been rocking at all the game encouraging a team that is building a name for themselves and the PAC 10 Conference in this tournament. Believe it or not they are the life of the PAC 10 post-season right now. Oregon State comes into this game averaging 58.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot an above average 43.9% from the floor. Sure the numbers seem a bit low but if you have watched them play you know that everything moves at a snails pace in Oregon State games and this is their style of play. Their are a very defensive minded team and their offense feeds on their abilities to make stop on the defensive side of things. UTEP comes all the way out West for this game and they have allowed 74.2 points per game in their last five games and allowed those opponents to shoot only 41.9% from the floor. Having said that, they will be thrown off by the lack of pace in this game because Oregon State really controls the tempo of play at home and I don't see why they can't do it in this game here. What I like about Oregon State is that they do not waste offensive possessions by simply jacking up three point shot attempts as only 32.0% of their shot attempts the last five games were from beyond the arc. That has allowed them to recover from offensive misses by playing solid defense and again if you have watched this team in recent games, you will know that they make clutch three point shots despite not shooting well overall from beyond the arc. Oregon State doesn't attack the paint much, they get to the line only 12.6 times per game in their last five games but that is because they use up the full 35 seconds on each and every possession to shorten the game and take away the floor running abilities of these high scoring opponents. Having said that, UTEP is vulnerable in the paint as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.8 times per game and if the Beavers want, they can turn the tempo up but I really doubt you see that happen. Because of the slow pace of play, the Beavers don't grab many rebounds per game but again they average the amount of rebounds necessary in comparison to the amount of shots they attempt per game and I think the Beavers are going to have quite a few second chance opportunities in this game against a UTEP team that has allowed their last five opponents to grab 34.0 rebounds per game and that have allowed those opponents to grab 10.4 offensive rebounds per game. Much like the Miners the Beavers do not base their game on strong guard play because they do not have any true point guards who can run the show on this team but the Beavers do take their time on every possession which means guys hold onto the ball and are selective with their shots. UTEP has allowed their last five opponents to average 12.8 assists per game so the Beavers should have some success when they want to move the ball inside and get a little paint and penetration going in this game. I do however think Oregon State is going to keep taking mid-range jumpers or short range jumpers in this game because the Miners have a few big players who provided a strong inside presence but those big guys are clumsy when players are aggressive and again if the Beavers can find a way to be aggressive inside, they will win this game big. It's always scary to bet on this Beavers defense but just keep in mind that everything they do is based on their outstanding defense and for that reason alone they will always be around at the end of games. Some say their luck is going to run out at home tonight but I don't see why that would happen with this crowd supporting them. It won't be pretty as always but Oregon State has an ability to control the tempo of home games in this tournament and if they control things again tonight, UTEP is serious trouble.
Houston walked into this place in the first round of this tournament with their #38 ranked offense and their 76.8 points per game and lost (I was on Oregon State). Vermont walked into this place in the quarterfinals of this tournament with their #34 ranked offense and their 77.0 points per game and lost (I was on Oregon State). Stanford walked into this place in the semifinals of this tournament with their #84 ranked offense and their 72.9 points and lost (I was once again on Oregon State). So the fact that UTEP has to the #49 ranked offense and average 75.5 points per game means nothing. Not in this house, not against the Beavers. Keep that in mind please. I talked how good UTEP had been in non-conference action and I wasn't lying. But all good things have to come to an end at some point and no matter how well the Miners have played against out of conference opponents and no matter how well they have played on the road in recent games, this is a three game series and they don't have as much on the line tonight. Oregon State on the other hand knows they have to win tonight or they are done with. We all know they won't win in El Paso on Wednesday so the time to take them is now. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points (for those who can get the +1). They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win. Oregon State is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and they are playing their best basketball of the season and of the last few season right here and right now. TAKE THE BEAVERS IN GAME #1.
Trend of the Game: Oregon State is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Oregon State 72, UTEP 62
:toast:
Sure it's a boring night for betting as I have not gotten into NBA betting as of right now for the season but I think I am going to start on some MLB capping for the season, trying to get a feel for what is going on with what pitchers and what teams. I will have some plays for the NIT Tournament tomorrow night, should be some good games and I actually think this game tonight is going to be pretty damn good. Good Luck to all!
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