MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 34-19-1 ATS (+131.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 145-127-4 ATS (+93.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 145-127-4 ATS (+93.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Friday, March 27
NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
View attachment 6791 Louisville Cardinals -9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6792
NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
View attachment 6791 Louisville Cardinals -9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6792
The Arizona Wildcats (how many effin teams are called the Wildcats anyways? I never realized it was that many) have to be happy where they stand right now because everyone cried when they made it into this tournament and the outcry was quite public about them getting into the Field of 65. Well let me just say that they have shut naysayers up pretty damn fast and this is not your typical 12 seed because they are much better than a bunch of teams in this tournament and had it not been for a rough regular season full of injuries, they would have been ranked a 9 or a 10. Having said that, I don't think this team has the talent to ball with Louisville and this is the end of the line for these guys. Not matter how well they have played in this tournament, Arizona still comes into this game averaging only 64.6 points per away game this season and they have done that by shooting only 46.6% from the floor in those games. I don't know what to tell you guys about Louisville's defense. The Cardinals have allowed only 61.1 points per road game this season and they have allowed their road opponents to shoot only 39.8% from the floor. All you need to be concerned with when you play against Arizona is their ability to knock down three point shots because despite taking only 14.0 three point shot attempts per road game, they have made most of those. Well Louisville's perimeter defense is tremendous and the Cardinals have allowed their road opponents to make only 31.4% of their three point shots this season on only 4.9 three point shots made per game. Without the ability to hit three point shots, Arizona has to make sure they get some action in the paint and they need to get to the line but I don't see how they can do that when a) they have been to the free throw line only 14.0 times per game on the road this season and b) they shoot only 66.9% from the free throw line in those games. Louisville's interior defense has been above average both at home and on the road this season, they average a whopping 6.2 blocks per away game this season and I think Arizona is going to have a really tough time getting established on offense tonight and that is going to cost them on the defensive side of things at the same time. I also think the Wildcats are at quite the size disadvantage tonight as they have brought down only 28.1 rebounds per road game this season and average only 9.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. I won't go as far as saying that Louisville dominated on the boards but they do have a lot of strength inside and they have some of the best athletes left in this tournament so I think they can outhustle the Wildcats on both ends of the floor. Anyone who has watched the Cardinals play this season know how aggressive they are on defense and they almost always go for ball picks and average a whopping 8.4 steals per road game this season. That could be a problem for an Arizona team that lacks a true ball moving point guard. Nic Wise is good and he has been great in this tournament but the team does not have a floor general and they average only 12.1 assists per road game this season and that's just not enough to get the job done against this Louisville defense that has been rock solid all season. I know the Cardinals have appeared vulnerable defensively at times on the road this season but Arizona is not efficient enough to make a difference in this game and I think they are going to struggle against this very tough defense. Arizona had a good run in this tournament and they do shoot the ball well from the floor but they just don't have the ability to run the floor with the Cardinals and once Louisville steps things up on defense, I think the Wildcats are going to make a lot of mistakes and probably end up going down in flames in this one. It was fun while it lasted Arizona but the only teams you beat were Utah and Cleveland State and you are about to run into a monster.
The Lousivlle Cardinals were picked by many (including myself) on the brackets to win it all and I will continue to stand by that until proven otherwise by one of their opponents. This is my first wager on Louisville in this tournament and I think I catch them at a perfect time. So far they have not impressed in their one of their games failing to cover a 21.5 point spread against Morehead State in the first round of this tournament and they failed to cover the 12 point spread in their second round game against Siena. So when will the Cardinals finally decide to show up? I know for a fact that teams who don't cover any games in the tournament usually don't make it all the way let alone win. Louisville comes into this game averaging 74.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot a whopping 49.0% from the floor. I think Arizona is fucked tonight because in their last five games they have faced mediocre offensive teams but have still allowed 73.2 points per game in those games and have allowed those last five opponents to shoot 45.1% from the floor in those games. Want more information? Well Louisville is deadly from the perimeter. They have made 37.8% of their three point shots in their last five games and average 9.0 three pointers made per game in those games. Arizona's perimeter defense is horrendous, they have been plagued by this all season and like I have said before, this will eventually come back to haunt these guys as their last five opponents have shot 35.0% from three point range and the Wildcats have allowed a whopping 10.0 three point shots made per game in their last five games and that is a complete disaster against a Cardinals team that can really light it up from downtown. No matter how things are going in a game, you can always count on Louisvile continuously trying three point shots and everytime they one in this game, you have to think it will eventually significantly increase their lead. We have seen them cover spreads like this many times this season. The Cardinals have not done much work inside the last five games and they haven't gotten to the free throw line which is probably a good thing seeing how poorly they shoot this season from the charity stripe but I think this is a perfect matched opponents for the Cardinals because the Wildcats allow a lot of movement on the outside and they leave the perimeter open while taking away the paint, which again doesn't bother Louisville. What you have to like about Louisville is that despite taking so many shots from the perimeter and making a high percentage of them, this team also knows a thing or two about rebounding as they average 33.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and average 10.8 offensive rebounds per game in those games which is going to be a problem for Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and when you give the Cardinals more than one chance down low they are going to kick it back out for a three or put it away. I love the pace of Louisville's game. They push the floor, they are erratic at times (which explains all the turnovers per game in recent games) and they really find a way to move the ball around the perimeter before finding the open options and breaking down opposing zones. Louisvilles comes into this game averaging a whopping 18.2 assists per game in their last five games. Like I said they have had turnovers problems but Arizona won't have an answer for that as they have forced only 11.2 turnvoers per game in their last five games (well below the NCAA average for those games) and the Wildcats are going to get beat inside all night as they don't have much size and average only 2.0 blocks per game in their last five games. I also have to point out that moving the ball against Zona's defense has been easy for opponents as they have allowed 15.2 assists per game in their last five games and have not played against an opponent that can expose their defensive flaws yet in this tournament. Utah was too plain on offense and Cleveland State struggled all night to find their shooting range and their defense never got into the swing of things. Well Louisville hits you hard on both defense and on offense and Arizona has not seen anything like this in this tournament so far. I think Louisville is going to come flying out of the gates and I don't think it will take them long to be up by 10 points at which point they will never look back.
I remember when these two teams met back in 2006 and Arizona won and covered the -3.5 spread in that game. Having said that, these two programs have gone completely different ways the last few seasons and things have really changed since then. First and foremost, Chase Budinger/Nic Wise/Jordan Hill all played in that game combining for only 19 of Arizona's 72 points in that game. Terrence Williams/Edgar Sosa/Jerry Smith/Earl Clark/Will Scott all played in that game for Louisville and those guys combined for 27 of the Cardinals 65 points in that game. So Louisville brings more experience into this game and that's a known fact. Arizona has everything going for them right now because not only did they make it into the tournament after a poor regular season but they are on fire on the spread right now and they have been one of the hottest wagers this tournament season. I think they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games or something so they are playing well but I think they have met their match in this one. Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team that has a winning percentage above .600 and they are much better against good teams as you will find out tonight. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and despite not covering the spread in either one of their first two rounds, they have still covered the spread in 16 of their last 23 games overall. This is a very good spread team, they are about to get things going heading into the most important stages of this tournament and we have yet to see the best of Rick Pitino and his guys. Be ready for this.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
Louisville 78, Arizona 62
More selections to come...
The Lousivlle Cardinals were picked by many (including myself) on the brackets to win it all and I will continue to stand by that until proven otherwise by one of their opponents. This is my first wager on Louisville in this tournament and I think I catch them at a perfect time. So far they have not impressed in their one of their games failing to cover a 21.5 point spread against Morehead State in the first round of this tournament and they failed to cover the 12 point spread in their second round game against Siena. So when will the Cardinals finally decide to show up? I know for a fact that teams who don't cover any games in the tournament usually don't make it all the way let alone win. Louisville comes into this game averaging 74.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot a whopping 49.0% from the floor. I think Arizona is fucked tonight because in their last five games they have faced mediocre offensive teams but have still allowed 73.2 points per game in those games and have allowed those last five opponents to shoot 45.1% from the floor in those games. Want more information? Well Louisville is deadly from the perimeter. They have made 37.8% of their three point shots in their last five games and average 9.0 three pointers made per game in those games. Arizona's perimeter defense is horrendous, they have been plagued by this all season and like I have said before, this will eventually come back to haunt these guys as their last five opponents have shot 35.0% from three point range and the Wildcats have allowed a whopping 10.0 three point shots made per game in their last five games and that is a complete disaster against a Cardinals team that can really light it up from downtown. No matter how things are going in a game, you can always count on Louisvile continuously trying three point shots and everytime they one in this game, you have to think it will eventually significantly increase their lead. We have seen them cover spreads like this many times this season. The Cardinals have not done much work inside the last five games and they haven't gotten to the free throw line which is probably a good thing seeing how poorly they shoot this season from the charity stripe but I think this is a perfect matched opponents for the Cardinals because the Wildcats allow a lot of movement on the outside and they leave the perimeter open while taking away the paint, which again doesn't bother Louisville. What you have to like about Louisville is that despite taking so many shots from the perimeter and making a high percentage of them, this team also knows a thing or two about rebounding as they average 33.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and average 10.8 offensive rebounds per game in those games which is going to be a problem for Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and when you give the Cardinals more than one chance down low they are going to kick it back out for a three or put it away. I love the pace of Louisville's game. They push the floor, they are erratic at times (which explains all the turnovers per game in recent games) and they really find a way to move the ball around the perimeter before finding the open options and breaking down opposing zones. Louisvilles comes into this game averaging a whopping 18.2 assists per game in their last five games. Like I said they have had turnovers problems but Arizona won't have an answer for that as they have forced only 11.2 turnvoers per game in their last five games (well below the NCAA average for those games) and the Wildcats are going to get beat inside all night as they don't have much size and average only 2.0 blocks per game in their last five games. I also have to point out that moving the ball against Zona's defense has been easy for opponents as they have allowed 15.2 assists per game in their last five games and have not played against an opponent that can expose their defensive flaws yet in this tournament. Utah was too plain on offense and Cleveland State struggled all night to find their shooting range and their defense never got into the swing of things. Well Louisville hits you hard on both defense and on offense and Arizona has not seen anything like this in this tournament so far. I think Louisville is going to come flying out of the gates and I don't think it will take them long to be up by 10 points at which point they will never look back.
I remember when these two teams met back in 2006 and Arizona won and covered the -3.5 spread in that game. Having said that, these two programs have gone completely different ways the last few seasons and things have really changed since then. First and foremost, Chase Budinger/Nic Wise/Jordan Hill all played in that game combining for only 19 of Arizona's 72 points in that game. Terrence Williams/Edgar Sosa/Jerry Smith/Earl Clark/Will Scott all played in that game for Louisville and those guys combined for 27 of the Cardinals 65 points in that game. So Louisville brings more experience into this game and that's a known fact. Arizona has everything going for them right now because not only did they make it into the tournament after a poor regular season but they are on fire on the spread right now and they have been one of the hottest wagers this tournament season. I think they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games or something so they are playing well but I think they have met their match in this one. Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team that has a winning percentage above .600 and they are much better against good teams as you will find out tonight. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and despite not covering the spread in either one of their first two rounds, they have still covered the spread in 16 of their last 23 games overall. This is a very good spread team, they are about to get things going heading into the most important stages of this tournament and we have yet to see the best of Rick Pitino and his guys. Be ready for this.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
Louisville 78, Arizona 62
More selections to come...
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