MistaFlava's CBB Tournament Friday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/13-6 ATS so far)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 13-6 ATS (+64.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 124-114-4 ATS (+25.80 Units)

Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

-------------------------------------------

Friday, March 20


NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6703 Oklahoma State Cowboys +2 (10 Units) View attachment 6702

The Tennessee Volunteers cannot be trusted and I will tell you that right now. The SEC Conference was horrendous this past season, one of their worst seasons (as a Conference) in recent memory and that has me thinking that all of their teams are way overrated and I am not going to bother backing any of them (I was on Mississippi State yesterday and we all know how that went). The Volunteers come into this game averaging 78.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 45.5% shooting from the floor which is not bad at all but don't forget, the SEC sucks ass. Oklahoma State played in a real conference and despite allowing 74.2 points per game on the season, their opponents have shot only 44.3% from the floor in those games and I think the Cowboys have come quite a long way this season. The Volunteers love the three ball but they are not very good at it as they have made only 31.4% of their three point shots this season and that's good news because the Cowboys do leave the perimeter open quite a bit and their outside perimeter defense is not all that good (although they did play in the Big 12 so give them a break). We all know this game is going to come down to interior defense and the Vols do get to the line quite a bit per game. My only issue with that is that they are not a good free throw shooting team and in a game where every basket matters, the fact that they shoot only 67.4% from the free throw line is going to be a problem. Tennessee is an outstanding rebounding team and they use their size to win games. Having said that, Oklahoma has done a very good job on the defensive glass this season holding opponents to only 9.7 offensive rebounds per game and that is good coming out of the Big 12 Conference. Tennessee also has some tremendous guard play, they move the ball very well, they take care of the ball and don't turn it over much per game which is why I think Oklahoma State is going to handle them just fine here. The Cowboys have held opponents to only 12.2 assists per game this season and they have forced a whopping 15.0 turnovers per game in those games. They are very aggressive around the ball, more aggressive then most defenses Tennessee has seen this season and they force 7.7 steals per game. Moving the ball around and creating good shots is not easy against Oklahoma State and I think the fact that Tennessee played in a weak SEC Conference this season is going to hurt them. Their stats are fake and so is this team. Don't buy into the hype guys. You all saw what happened to Mississippi State yesterday and the Bulldogs beat the Vols in the conference tournament final. Enough said.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now and despite losing in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, it was probably best because that tournament takes a lot out of teams and the Cowboys come into this game well rested, ready to run as they always do. We know this is going to be a shootout and the Cowboys are not going to disappoint. Oklahoma State comes into this game averaging 76.6 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 46.6% from the floor (we are talking about road games here). That was in a better conference than the SEC Conference and the Cowboys have the edge of having played against better teams. Tennesssee's defense has been horrendous all season long away from home where they have allowed 76.3 points per game and have allowed their opponents to shoot a whopping 47.8% from the floor in those games. You give the Cowboys that much breathing space and they are going to make you pay. Oklahoma State shot the lights out from downtown on the road this season making 38.5% of their three point shots away from home on 9.4 three pointers made per game in those games. That's a huge problem for the Volunteers who cannot defend the perimeter if their lives depended on it as their road opponents have made 36.0% of their three point shots this season on 7.3 three pointers made per game in those games. Not only can the Cowboys knock it down from the outside but also have a good inside game having gone to the free throw line 21.5 times per road game this season. Tennessee has allowed road opponents to go to the line 21.8 times per game this season so the Cowboys can really pull away in this game with trips to the line. Nobody is going to argue that Oklahoma State is a better rebounding team that Tennessee but they are still decent and they shoot well enough from the field that they don't need to bring down that many offensive rebounds per game. As long as they take care of their own basket they should have no problems. Oklahoma State loves to run the floor and make things happen fast and unless Tennessee can force turnovers in this game I think they'll have problems stopping them. The Vols have forced only 12.3 turnovers per away game this season on only 5.1 steals per game in those games and their lack of aggressiveness defensively is going to cost them in a very fast moving game like this. Regardless, the Vols are screwed because they can't defend the perimeter and the Cowboys shoot the lights out from the outside on a game by game basis. This game should be no different.

These two teams last met in 2006 when Tennessee beat the Cowboys by two points on their own home court but looking back at that game, not many guys have stuck around for the rematch three years later. Byron Eaton and Terrel Harris combined for 23 points in that game and they are the only two returning members of this Cowboys team. Tennessee returns Chism, Tabb and Childress from that game and they combined for only 11 points between the three in that game. Alright so Tennessee has done well in the past when favored on a neutral court and I have made some cash betting on them but how can you put money on this ass clown team? Tennessee has covered only 2 of their last 7 non-conference games, they are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA tournament games when favored (keep that in mind how they screw you time and time again) and the Vols are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus Big 12 Conference opponents which goes to show that their style just doesn't match the toughness and speed of the Big 12. Oklahoma State is a whopping 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and anyone who goes against that has no brain. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus SEC Conference opponents, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus teams with a straight up winning record on the season and 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 neutral court games. Yes they have struggled in the NCAA Tournament in the past but there is no pressure on these guys this time around and I think a lot of teams in this bracket section have to watch out for the Cowboys. They are red hot and have the tools to make a run in this tournament.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus SEC Conference opponents.


Oklahoma State 83, Tennessee 74




More selections to come...
​

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6704 Marquette Golden Eagles -5 (10 Units) View attachment 6705

The Utah State Aggies are a virtual unknown in the world of college basketball and college basketball betting which is why I am a little bit surprised that only 60% of the public is going against them here. I mean something has to give. The Aggies were ranked in the TOP 25 for the first time ever for a large chunk of this past season but then their true colors showed and the voters realize no team from the WAC Conference belongs in the TOP 25 in the Nation. The Aggies come into this game averaging 72.8 points per game on neutral sites this season and they have done that on 47.3% shooting from the floor in those games. Having said that, all their neutral court games were against WAC opponents (most of them anyways). Having said that, Marquette has allowed neutral court opponents to average only 63.2 points per game this season and their neutral court opponents have shot only 42.7% from the floor in those games. Good Luck Utah State. The Aggies don't do much shooting from the outside but they are pretty damn good when they do take three point shots on neutral courts. However, good luck trying to get shots off from the outter perimeter against this Marquette defense that has allowed neutral court opponents to shoot 25.0% from three point range on only 3.8 three pointers made per game in those games. WOW! That will force Utah State inside where they get to the line a lot on neutral courts and shoot very well from that line. The Golden Eagles don't mind allowing action down low because they have a very deep bench and as long as opponents don't shoot the lights out against them from the outside, they will risk the foul or steal on the inside. Having said that, Utah State won't hang around for long in this game if they cannot rebound and on neutral courts this season they average only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game this season. I have to say right now that Marquette does an outstanding job on the defensive boards as they have held their neutral court opponents to only 29.5 rebounds per game this season on only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Aggies are going to have all sorts of problems if they can't get second chances in this game. As much as Utah State has moved the ball well on neutral courts, creating chances for themselves in offensive sets, they have turned the ball over 13.5 times per game and that is like hanging bait in front of this Marquette team. I know Dominic James is out and he is a turnover forcing specialist but the Golden Eagles don't allow ball movement allowing only 10.2 assists per neutral court game this season. The Eagles really force teams to settle for bad shots from the outside and this game should be no different. Utah State has no idea what they are in for in this one.

The Marquette Golden Eagles had their dreams of winning the Big East Conference as well as the NCAA Tournament come crashing down when Dominic James was lost for the year about a month ago but hold on. How can the dream be over when this team is still playing in this tournament? I know it won't be easy without and both his skills and experience were priceless to this team but the Golden Eagles can still ball believe me and Jerel McNeal is a pretty damn good player. I think Marquette is much better than an everyday 6 seed. Okay so this team has not shot well in recent games and yes they needed a nice little break to rest and prepare for this tournament. Now the Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 78.8 points per game this season and they managed to shoot 45.6% from the floor in those ames, most of those against Big East Conference opponents. Very nice. With the loss of James this team has had to focus more on attacking the basket quickly and not settling for outside jumpers but having said that Marquette has made 7.1 three point shots per game this season and they did shoot 34.9% from three point range in those games. I can also tell you that Utah State doesn't allow much perimeter ball movement but their opponents have still shot 36.7% from three point range this season and if Marquette gets hot, watch out. The Golden eagles are more about action in the paint as they have been to the free throw line 26.1 times per game this season and made 72.0% of their free throws on the year. Utah State is not used to teams that can work the inside so their interior defense has held up most of the season but they are in big time trouble in this game because Marquette is going to want to make a statement and they will not stop attacking the inside. Marquette is very good on the offensive boards having brought down 10.8 offensive rebounds per game this season and 33.2 total rebounds per game and again Utah State has not seen teams like this all season while playing in the WAC Conference. Despite the injury to James, the Golden Eagles have still averaged 15.5 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 11.5 times per game. Utah State is too relaxed defensively as they have forced only 10.5 turnovers per game this season and with the way Marquette attacks from all over the court, that is just not going to cut for a full 40 minutes in this game. The Aggies have only 4.9 steals per game this season and average only 2.5 blocks per game. I think McNeal and company are going to have their way and as long as they play tight defense, they should have no problems winning this game by at least 10 points.

Alright so the line opened at close to 7 points and it has dropped by almost a full three points the last few days. I know Dominic James is out and that probably has something to do with it but other than that, how can you possibly believe Utah State is going to keep this game close for a full 40 minutes of play? Sure they won their conference tournament but they lost two games on the spread doing so and have really faded the second half of this season. Yes the Aggies have been a very good wager all season long as as underdogs and they have been good on neutral courts but again mostly against conference opponents. What you have to know is that Utah State is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus opponents that have a straight up winning record on the season and that in my eyes says that they have faced nothing but weak opponents and when playing against a good team, have found it tough to hang around or put away games. Marquette didn't get too far in the Big East Tournament but they sure as hell competed and they are now 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. The Dominic James injury won't hurt them this round. Marquette is also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points and I think they put an end to their non-conference games miseries of this past season. Marquette will take a bit of time to find their game but in the end they will win this by 10+ and setup a second round slobberknocker with Missouri. Count on it.

Trend of the Game: Marquette is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.


Marquette 79, Utah State 66




More selections to come...
​

 

[Johnny_Ringo]

Thanks Mista. I was already on these 2 games today and now I'm gonna hit em harder! Thanks so much for the write ups and BOL!

 

[RebeKid]

Thanks Mista. I was already on these 2 games today and now I'm gonna hit em harder! Thanks so much for the write ups and BOL!

same here...good luck 2day(<)<

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6707 Arizona State Sun Devils -6 (10 Units) View attachment 6706

The Temple Owls are a one man show and that one man is Mr. Christmas but like we have seen on many occasions this season and last season, he cannot do everything himself and the Owls go up against above average teams, they tend to fall apart a bit and when they fall behind by a lot you can forget them making comebacks in a game like this. I have to admit Temple looked great in their conference tournament game but who cares really. The Owls come into this game scoring 67.7 points per road game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 43.7% from the floor. Both are below the NCAA average and that is not good against an Arizona State defense that has played defense supreme on the road this season allowing only 57.8 points per game away from home and allowing those same road opponents to shoot only 39.6% from the floor. Temple's success depends heavily on their success with the three ball because they attempt 21.2 three point shots per away game this season and are pretty damn good at what they do. Well hear me out when I say that Arizona State's perimeter defense is sick and the Sun Devils have allowed road opponents to make only 28.1% of their three point shot attempts on only 5.2 three point shots made per game. That leaves Temple with virtually nothing to go on as they average only 14.3 trips to the free throw line per road game this season making only 68.3% of those free throws and their inside game is weak. I don't know how they are going to score points if they can't hit from the outside because Arizona State is very good at taking away the middle as road opponents have been to the free throw line only 16.3 times per game this season and it's tough to get around this defense. Temple is an above average rebounding team but the problem there again is that Arizona State is too good around their own basket and their road opponents this season have brought down only 28.0 rebounds per game and only 9.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Owls do have above average guard play with Christmas running the show left and right but the Sun Devils won't have any of that as they have allowed only 11.9 assists against per road game this season and they have kept opponents in the mid-range level jacking up bad shots. All-in-all, Temple might go on a few runs with their ability to hit shots from the outside but the Sun Devils defense is too good and they won't allow any huge runs that put them in danger of losing this game.

The Arizona State Devils are one of my picks to go pretty damn far in this tournament and I give them an outside chance of making the ELITE EIGHT for sure and even possibly the FINAL FOUR if they can put all the piece of the puzzle together. They have the best guard combination in the Country (arguably of course) and they have a very good big man to compliment the guard play. They are all experienced players and again the Sun Devils could really do some damage is they play well in this tournament. Arizona State comes into this game averaging a whopping 76.0 points per game on neutral courts this season and in those games they have managed to shoot a whopping 51.0% from the floor. Temple's defense has been solid on neutral courts this season because their opponents have been in-conference opponents and that would be why they have allowed only 64.6 points per neutral court game on 38.8% shooting from the floor in those games. However, those of you taking the underdog, please explain to me how Temple can contain the Sun Devils outside shooting? Arizona State has made 40.5% of their three point shots on neutral courts this season on 8.6 three point shots made per game in those games. Temple has allowed neutral court opponents to make 33.0% of their three point shots this season on a whopping 7.2 three pointers made per game (both well above the NCAA average for neutral courts). The Sun Devils also have the ability to work the ball inside where they have been to the free throw line 19.7 times per neutral court game and have made 76.8% of their free throws in those games. Temple has not allowed many teams to go to town on them in the paint because they do have quite a few big guys to keep things outside but that's not a problem for Arizona State because look where guard play has gotten them this season. As much as Temple can rebound, they have allowed 35.8 rebounds against per neutral court game and allowed opponents to bring down 13.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games so the Sun Devils need to hang around the hoop on misses. Much like the Owls, Arizona State has good ball moving guards who average 15.3 assists per neutral court game and who turn the ball over only 11.9 times per game in those games. Temple has had problems against teams who can move the ball well allowing 13.2 assists per neutral court game this season. If you can handle the Owls pressure defensively, you can easily get around their trap and score some easy looks at the basket. Arizona State has seen it all this season and this Owls defense shouldn't be any different. Bank on them coming out of the gates strong in this one and winning this game big.

Since the start of this decade, these two teams have met twice and that was in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Arizona State won both times. The first time being a game in Temple that the Sun Devils managed to win by three points and the other being a game in Arizona that the Sun Devils managed to win by four points. Basically the underdog has covered the spread both times but there are no players left from those teams and this is a brand new matchup. Arizona State is my sleeper pick for this tournament and their journey begins today. Temple kicked some serious ass in their conference tournament winning and covering every single game but we are talking about a team that has been a favorite in games this season and I mean a favorite in like 90% of the game they have played. They don't really know what it's like to be an underdog and when slapped with that label they have not responded well going 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Arizona State is coming off that tough loss to USC in the PAC 10 Conference Championship Game and I know the Sun Devils wanted that bad. They had it but they couldn't hold on and looked completely dead in the water. Having said that, they respond well to losses as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games that follow an ATS loss and they are a very impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on a neutral court. I think the Sun Devils matchup very well with Temple because they can shut themd own from the outside and score a bunch of points of their own.

Trend of the Game: Arizona State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games that follow an ATS loss.


Arizona State 71, Temple 58




More selections to come...
​

 

[Luck3ychance]

im with you on all three of these

 

[merrit52]

I hope you hit 2-3 ....I jumped on all 3 of these games!!! GL

 

[chachie82]

if you jumped on all 3 why wouldn't you hope for 3-3?

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round

View attachment 6709 Dayton Flyers +9 (10 Units) View attachment 6708

The Dayton Flyers are another one of those virtual unknowns in the NCAA Tournament this season but listen to me know when I say that they match up very well with the Mountaineers and this is the #11 seed I really think has a chance to pull the upset in the first round. It's teams like this that are remembered for that one big first round win and the Mountaineers are a young team that is beatable. Dayton comes into this game averaging 71.0 points per neutral court game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot only 40.7% from the floor but that is their style of play and they have attempted 5.4 more shots per neutral court game than the national average. West Virginia's defense has been solid all season under Bob Huggins even though their neutral court opponents have made 42.9% of their shots from the floor which is above NCAA average. I know for a fact that Dayton is going to do what they can to stay away from the three point shot in this game because not only does West Virginia do a decent job defending the perimeter but the Flyers have been horrendous on neutral courts from beyond the arc and they have the right players to make it work elsewhere. I say that because Dayton is very aggressive in the paint, they love attacking the basket and they have been to the free throw line a whopping 29.5 times per game on neutral courts this season, despite not being a good free throw shooting team in those games. I have no doubt West Virginia is going to be in early foul trouble in this game as their neutral court opponents have been to the free throw line 20.0 times per game and Dayton could have a field day in the paint. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the Nation and have brought down 41.8 rebounds per neutral court game this season on 13.2 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Mountaineers better be ready for the Flyers ability to keep possessions alive in the offensive zone. Dayton has very speedy guards who love to feed the ball inside as they average 13.5 assists per neutral court game this season. The Mountaineers are going to struggle to contain the ball movement as they have allowed 13.3 assists per neutral court game this season and forced only 5.8 steals per game in those games. Dayton is not a great shooting team but they do get the cheap buckets quite a bit and their work down low is going to put a real handicap on this Mountaineers defense.

The West Virginia Mountaineers were one of the most up and down teams in the Big East Conference this season. What you have to understand is that they are a very young team with some of these guys seeing their very first NCAA Tournament action and these are no longer the days of Mr. Alexander so how in the hell are they favored by this many points and how are they going to react to playing their first game in the big show. I have not been impressed by this team's road play this season and I refuse to bet on them with such a blown up line. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging 72.4 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on a below average 43.0% shooting from the floor. Having said that, Dayton's defense has been impressive as they have allowed only 61.5 points per game this season and allowed opponents to shoot only 39.7% from the floor in those games. West Virginia won't be able to pull away if they take a lead in this game because they make only 33.1% of their three point shots and Dayton has been very good at guarding the perimeter allowing opponents this season to make only 31.7% of their three points at 6.3 three point shots made per game. I don't doubt the Mountaineers can get to the line in this game but their free throw shooting has not been all that good this season and Dayton has done a good job on the inside as they have allowed their opponents this season to get to the free throw line only 19.2 times per game this season. The Mountaineers are a team that can definitely rebound the ball on both ends of the court but like I discussed before, Dayton is very good at rebounding as well which should cancel out the usual rebounding edge West Virginia has. Dayton's opponents this season have managed only 29.6 rebounds per game on the season and only 8.9 offensive rebounds per game in those games and that should hold the Mountaineers at bay here. I have been overly impressed with the improved guard play of this West Virginia team as the season has progressed but having said that Dayton is going to stick to the guards like glue in this one as they have forced 14.5 turnovers per game this season, they average 6.3 steals per game and 3.5 blocks per game. This is the kind of defense West Virginia did not want to face because it will be tough to keep momentum going when they have to rotate players all the time and West Virginia, if they win, will have to do it at the buzzer.

You better believe the Flyers are going to be pumped up for this game because they were an at-large berth that got in over the likes of Davidson, Penn State and a bunch of other teams that felt they belonged in the big dance. That means they have a lot of pressure and incentive to live up to their ticket and I think the Flyers are going to prove to everyone that they do belong wearing cinderella shoes. I know the Flyers lost to Dusquesne in their conference tournament but that is not a big deal, if anything they are well rested now and this team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up loss the game before anyways. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and the Flyers have actually matched up really well against teams from the Big East Conference going 4-1 ATS in their last five against Big East opponents. They have also covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games versus teams that have a winning straight up record. West Virginia has been one of the best NCAA Tournament bets the last three or four years but the team has since changed and this is the same Mountaineers team that is only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus opponents from the Atlantic 10 Conference. They are also only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a neutral court favorite and only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus non-conference opponents. Dayton has been there and done this in the past and they match up very well in this game. UPSET CITY BABY!

Trend of the Game: Dayton is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Big East Conference opponents.


Dayton 68, West Virginia 66




More selections to come...
​

 

[seanm0520]

If you think Dayton will top WVU why not just take the ML? I think taking the points in that one is the right move as well, even being an 'Eers homer, but if I felt the upset I'd take the better ML odds.

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6710 Arizona Wildcats +1.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6711

The Arizona Wildcats are being called the least deserving team to have made it into the field of 65 teams and I think that is a bit unfair considering that a bunch of those small conference champion teams suck ass and are only here to get blown out by some of the top seeds. So I would say Arizona does deserve to be here only because they are better than about 10-15 teams that are in this tournament right now. You would also think the Wildcats are sick of hearing about them not deserving to be here. I think they are going to come into this thing motivated as hell to win some games. The Wildcats are playing some damn good basketball right now as they come into this game averaging 73.0 points per game in their last five games and have managed to do that by shooting a whopping 47.3% from the floor in those games. I know all we ever hear about is Utah's defense and how tough they are to score on but I am not a fan of these smaller conference defenses that come into the tournament talking big numbers. Apparently it's tough to shoot from the outside perimeter against this Utah defense as they have held opponents in their last five games to only 13.2 shots attempts from beyond the arc but try telling that to Arizona who have made 37.5% of their three point shots the last five games on 6.6 three pointers made per game. The Utes are however beatable down low as they have allowed their last five opponents to go to the free throw line 21.6 times per game and that's bad news for them because Arizona shoots 76.4% from the free throw line in those games. Arizona is not the rebounding team they used to be and they won't be grabbing too many boards in this one but that doesn't matter because they love to play at fast pace and they are shooting the ball well enough that they don't need second chances on offense. The Cats have a huge advantage when it comes to guard play as they average 15.4 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over only 10.6 times per game in those games. That works for me against this tight ass Utah defense that forces only 9.4 turnovers per game in their last five games and that have only 5.0 steals per game in those games. The Utes have some big guys down low but Arizona is a very good mid-range shooting team, they have great slashers to the basket, great players who can feed them the ball and it's only a matter of putting everything together at once for this team. I think that is something they get done against a Utah defense that will be lost if Arizona penetrates and breaks early. Anyone see what happened to BYU?

The Utah Utes are being backed by a lot of people because they won the Mountain West Conference tournament just last weekend but anyone who saw them play in that tournament knows it took a lot out of them and something tells me they are going to struggle against a team that should be seeded a lot higher than they are right now, had they only had the brains to play well during the regular season and had they avoided injuries to some of their best players. Utah comes into this game averaging 66.0 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and they have managed to do that by shooting 46.9% from the floor which is good but consider that they average 6.4 less shot attempts per game than the National average on neutral courts and it's not that impressive at all. Have fun playing against Arizona's defense as the Wildcats have allowed only 62.0 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and in those games their opponents have managed to shoot 45.8% from the floor. Utah loves shooting the three ball like most teams from their conference and they do it pretty damn well. Having said that, the Wildcats guard the perimeter very well as their opponents on neutral courts have made only 29.0% of their three point shots this season on only 6.0 three point shots made per game. The problem there is that if Utah can't hit from the outside, their paint game is not that great as they have been to the free throw line only 17.6 times per game in those games while Arizona has been impossible to break in the paint allowing their neutral court opponents to get to the free throw line only 13.0 times per game in those games. Utah is going to struggle in this one and that's not good for them. It's not like Utah is going to get many second chance points in this one if they miss from the outside as they average only 30.2 rebounds per neutral court game this season and that's only 6.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Just to let you know, Arizona has been one of the best teams in the Country when it comes to defending their own basket and their neutral court opponents this season have averaged only 21.7 rebounds per game (NCAA average is 31.9) and only 6.3 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Utes might find success moving the ball around and getting some open looks from the mid-range but that won't be enough to sustain leads or hold off the Wildcats in this game. Arizona is a good defensive team when they want to be and I think they are going to find a way to shut this Utah offense down. Utah had a good season but this is the wrong opponent for them and I say they go crashing out of this tournament.

I don't know if any of you guys remember these two teams playing against each other in 2005 but they did and the Wildcats won the game by 30 points. Sure enough not many of the players from that game are back this time around and let me tell you right now that both teams have gone in different directions and this matchup is going to be a lot closer. There is no shame in losing to Arizona State in the conference tournament first round and again the Wildcats should be well rested. Arizona is a very impressive 6-0 ATS in their last six games where they are coming off an ATS loss the game before and Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games that follow a straight up loss. This is a very good spot to back these guys and I am not missing out. I rarely have bad things to say about teams from the Mountain West Conference and teams that are from Utah because they are usually very well disciplined and are fundamentally sound in most cases but this is a bad matchup for the Utes because again Arizona is sick and tired of hearing about them not belonging in this tournament. Utah will probably keep it close and lead by quite a few points at times but Arizona knows how to fight and I think they are going to drop some daggers in the second half of this game tonight. I won't call this a revival of the dead but Arizona pulls off the win for their backers.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.


Arizona 61, Utah 55




More selections to come...
​

 

[JWinner17]

I absolutely love Arizona State Moneyline and Arizona today!!!

 

[knucklecup]

I'm on every game that you're on so far - I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but we were definitely thinking similarly here today.

good luck.

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6712 Southern California Trojans -2 (10 Units) View attachment 6713

The USC Trojans are one of my favorite teams to watch and they remind me a lot of some of the teams of years past that have gone on big time eye opening and brain shocking runs all the way to the FINAL FOUR and all the way to the bank. Maybe they look a bit like a Syracuse team the year Melo took these guys to the big show and won it all in crazy impressive fashion. I don't know what they look like but they have the veteran leadership needed to make it somewhere and they have a freshman sensation to compliment the veterans. The Trojans come into this game averaging 71.6 points per game in their last five games and they won the PAC 10 Conference tournament by shooting a very cool 50.6% from the floor in their last five games. I know Boston College is very sound defensively and they do face some very tough ACC Conference opponents all year but USC has been on fire as of late and they are very dangerous in all aspects of the game right now. What I like about the Trojans is that they are well coached and they rarely panic attempting only 10.4 three point shots per game in their last five games while still making 34.6% of those shots. Should they choose to start unloading from downtown and setting up plays from three point land, the Eagles perimeter defense sucks and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 41.3% from three point range in those games, making 7.6 three point shots per game in those games. USC is very good down in the post where they have been to the free throw line 24.0 times per game in their last five games. Boston College has struggled all season against ACC Conference opponents and their last five opponents have gone to the line 20.2 times per game and USC is going to put these guys into early foul trouble. The Trojans have a big edge in rebounding here as they are very athletic and get a lot of second chance opportunities with their 34.8 rebounds per game in their last five games on 9.8 offensive rebounds per game. The Eagles have allowed 31.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and allowed a whopping 12.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. USC has above average guard play from Hackett and company as they average 13.0 assists per game in their last five games and turn the ball over only 12.6 times per game in those games. Boston College is too simple on defense and I don't think they can disrupt the inside power and prowness of the Trojans with their 5.8 steals per game in their last five games. USC is playing some of their best basketball in a very long time and the PAC 10 Conference is not all that bad. I think the Trojans are going to impress in this game tonight.

The Boston College Eagles are as overrated as it gets in my books. They are a young team with no marquee players to speak of like guys they had in the past and anyone who backs them in this game is blindly betting from the East Coast and has probably never watched PAC 10 Conference basketball in their lives. Boston College comes into this game averaging 69.8 points per game in their last five games but I have to tell you now that they are going to struggle to keep up in this game as they have shot only 41.8% from the floor in those games and USC is one of the most underrated defensive teams in the Country having allowed only 62.2 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 39.1% from the floor in those games. Boston College is a horrendous perimeter team on both sides of the ball as they have shot only 29.7% from three point range in their last five games on only 5.4 three point shots made per game and they are going up against a very good perimeter defensive team in USC that has allowed their last five opponents to make only 30.8% of their three point shots the last five games. Boston College scores most of their points in the paint where they get to the line quite often but USC is not going to have any as they have allowed their last five opponents to go to the free throw line only 14.2 times per game in their last five games and the Eagles will quickly show frustration when they can't find ways to score in this game. The Eagles are a decent rebounding team despite bringing down only 30.6 rebounds per game in their last five games but again USC does a fantastic job of protecting their own basket as their last five opponents have brought down only 25.4 total team rebounds and that's not enough to win games. The problem with Boston College is their guard play. The Eagles average only 12.2 assists per game in their last five games and moving the ball around against the Trojans is already tough enough that you need some very good ball moving guards who can recognize the resilience of lane penetration and use the outside lanes if they have to. The Trojans don't force many turnovers but they are very solid in their zone and opponents are always stuck taking bad shots from the outside. Same should happen tonight.

These two teams met back in the 2001 NCAA Tournament and USC managed to win that game by three points as a two point underdog. I will continue saying this until some of you understand it for good, the PAC 10 Conference, although I am not a huge fan, is well built to do well in this tournament because they showcase tough defenses and have some big name players who can really take over games in the crunch. UCLA already won, Arizona State is winning right now, Washington went through quite easily and USC should right behind these other teams. USC has covered the spread in a bunch of games as of late going 4-0 ATS in their last four games that follow a straight up win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season. I know a lot of people are going to bet on Boston College because of how well they played on neutral sites in years past but it's imperative that you understand that this team is very different than those other BC teams with guys like Dudley on them. The Eagles come into this game only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when the underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games that follow an ATS win the game before. I think USC is going to be a tough out in this tournament and I just don't see them losing here.

Trend of the Game: USC is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.


USC 68, Boston College 59




More selections to come...
​

 

[knucklecup]

The Boston College Eagles are as overrated as it gets in my books. They are a young team with no marquee players to speak of like guys they had in the past and anyone who backs them in this game is blindly betting from the East Coast and has probably never watched PAC 10 Conference basketball in their lives.

***

Tyrese Rice will be the best player on the floor tonight and there shouldn't even be a debate about that.

Not saying BC wins this one because as you allude to, Boston College is young, but to say they're going to lose because "Pac 10 basketball" is incredible in addition to the bolded comment is downright loopy.

Other things in your write-up I like, but I know BC like the back of my hand and disagree wholeheartedly with several of your points.

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - First Round


View attachment 6715 Siena Saints +2 (10 Units) View attachment 6716

The Siena Saints are another one of those virtual unknowns in this tournament but believe me right now when I say that Ohio State should be scared shitless of these guys because unlike some of the other mid-major wannabe teams, the Saints are pretty damn good and they can really score some big time points per game. That is something Ohio State is going to have one hell of a time trying to handle. Siena comes into this game tonight averaging a whopping 79.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done by shooting 47.3% from the floor in those games. We all know how solid Ohio State has been the season on the defensive side of things but fuck the Big Ten Conference. I talked all sorts of smack about Illinois being good defensively and they showed me up big time yesterday so I refuse to look at Big Ten Conference numbers and believe they are legit. Siena has made 37.5% of their three point shots the last five games and if these guys can jack it up early from deep downtown, Ohio State is going to be in trouble as the Buckeyes have allowed 7.8 three point shots made per game in their last five games. The Saints love to run the floor and they are very good at knocking down mid-range jumper despite not getting to the free throw line much per game. That works perfectly into their plans tonight because Ohio State has very good interior defense and the Saints really should not be concerned with what goes on in the paint because that is not their everyday game. Having said that Siena does have some big players who can crash the boards as they have brought down 32.4 rebounds per game in their last five games on 11.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games and Ohio State has had problems holding off opponents on second chance points allowing 10.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games. Siena's guards are very fast and they love to run as they average 17.4 assists per game in their last five games and they have turned the ball over only 10.8 times per game in those games. WOW! I know it's not easy moving the ball around against Ohio State and penetrating their zone but Siena can do it and the Buckeyes have forced only 9.2 turnovers per game in their last five games on only 3.6 steals per game. The Buckeyes do block a lot of shots but I don't think they are going to have an answer for Siena's speed or their ability to move the ball around and create open looks from the outside. Ohio State has not seen a team like this all season. I think they are screwed.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are not as good as they appear and their appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game was nothing more than a result of that conference falling apart late in the season and I still don't think the Buckeyes belonged in that final. Nonetheless they gave it a good go, they looked good in some of their games but I think all their energy spent and for a lack of a better term, they already blew their load in the conference tournament and I don't see them advancing here. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 67.8 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and they managed to shoot 46.0% from the floor in those games. Having said that, Siena has allowed only 69.0 points per game on neutral courts this season and allowed those same opponents to shoot only 43.3% from the floor which is impressive considering their up tempo style of plays that usually allows a lot of points against. The Saints biggest weakness has always been their perimeter defense where teams tend to unload on them from three point range but I don't think Ohio State can expose that because their game is not about jacking up shots from the outside as they attempt only 15.0 three point shots per neutral court game which is nowhere the NCAA average. Ohio State is more a team that loves to work the inside and get some points in the paint but Siena is very good defensively in the paint where they have allowed their neutral court opponents this season to get to the free throw line only 13.5 times per game this season and that should keep their lead healthy in this game. The Buckeyes can grab all the defensive rebounds they want in this game but if they continue to struggle on offensive rebound chances, they are not going to win the big games. They average only 6.0 offensive rebounds per neutral court game this season and Siena is going to take advantage of this by running out on several fast breaks and making the Buckeyes run like they don't normally run. Ohio State's guard play is very on and off and that is the reason they have lacked consistency all season long. The Buckeyes turn the ball over 12.2 times per neutral court game this season but Siena is going to be all over them with their pressure defense as they have forced a whopping 19.0 turnovers per neutral court game this season on 9.2 steals per game and this young Buckeyes team is going to struggle with turnovers all night long. I don't think they have the energy to deal with that because the Saints are too quick and too pesky and they are completely relentless in their pursuit for the ball on defense...that is pretty much their bread and butter and that is the kind of defense that has been a problem for Ohio State in the past. Bye Bye Buckeyes...shitty season.

I don't remember who it was on National TV that said right away when this matchup was announced that the Buckeyes were in big time trouble. Well we saw a live example of a slow BIG TEN Conference team having to go up against a very quick scoring Western Kentucky squad last night and look what happened there. The Hilltoppers spanked Illinois for the most part of that game and now the Fighting Illini are sitting at home pondering what could have been. Well Ohio State is next if you ask me because Siena can really light up the scoreboard too. Alright so I don't see any other way to go than taking Siena in this game tonight as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off a straight up win. You have to also know that Siena is not often an underdog but they have covered the spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have played against some high scoring teams like Oklahoma State but lost and I think Ohio State is a much more suitable matchup for these guys. The Buckeyes however have been pathetic in past tournaments as they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in the NCAA Tournament and they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games when favored on the spread. Believe me when I say that their season is coming to an end tonight because this is a horrible matchup for the Buckeyes.

Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.


Siena 75, Ohio State 69




More selections to come...
​

 

[JWinner17]

I am with you on almost every pick!!! Let's get'em and cash in!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

How about that Dayton straight up winner?


$$$

 

[ZJP6050]

attaboy flave. how do you feel about portland st?

 

[MistaFlava]

attaboy flave. how do you feel about portland st?

I hate large spreads, didn't even look at the game to be honest with you. Good Luck man.