MistaFlava's CBB Tournament ***ELITE EIGHT POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 35-22-1 ATS (+108.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 146-130-4 ATS (+70.80 Units)

Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up.
Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

-------------------------------------------

Saturday, March 28


NCAA Tournament - Elite Eight


View attachment 6815 Missouri Tigers +5.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6814

The Missouri Tigers have obviously impressed everyone in this tournament and they are the only surprise team left in the final eight teams. Having said that...this team is the real deal and although the tournament has sucked complete ass so far and we have seen way too many blowouts for one tournament, I think most of the games this round are going to be tight as hell. Missouri is the one team that balled with everyone in the Big 12 Conference this season and I really think they can keep it up here. Missouri comes into this game averaging 80.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot 46.7% from the floor. UConn has played well defensively but they do allow 74.0 points per game in their last five games and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 37.2% from the floor in those games. However, we all thought Missouri would struggle with the Memphis defense and they killed those guys. What's surprising is that with all those points per game, Missouri has not shot the ball well from three point range despite making 6.4 three pointers per game in those last five games. That won't matter because the Huskies don't allow shit from the perimeter and that is the one reason Purdue struggled in their game against the Huskies because they are a perimeter team and they missed too many shots from the outside. I do however think Missouri is going to give Connecticut some problems on the inside as they have been to the free throw line 25.2 times per game in their last five games and have made an impressive 72.2% of those freebies. The Huskies have some size inside but they have allowed their last five opponents to get to the free throw line 19.6 times per game and those are not signs of an elite defense if you ask me. You cannot outrebound UConn and that is a known fact but because they take so many shots per game, the Huskies also allow 35.8 rebounds per game in their last five games and they average 12.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Missouri has managed to bring down 32.4 rebounds of their own in the last five games on 10.0 offensive rebounds per game which gives them a good chance should their shooting be mediocre from the floor in this game. It's hard to find a team with better guard play than the Tigers right now as they average 16.0 assists per game (12.8 is the NCAA average right now) and they have turned the ball over only 8.8 times per game in those games. It's not that UConn forces turnovers because they force below the NCAA average amount of turnovers per game in their last five games, it's that they take away the easy looks from the outside and challenge you to bring everything inside. I mean their last five opponents have averaged 15.6 assists per game which means Missouri is going to score a lot of baskets inside and they'll have no problems moving the ball in transition and finding some guys cutting to the basket. We all know how tough it is trying to get layups against this UConn team but the Tigers have seen it all, they should be ready for another tough defense and they have had the most impressive transition game in this tournament and have shown how quickly they can score when they go up by a few or go down by a few. Never count these guys out and don't forget how quickly they can score points...it's actually scary from what I have seen.

The Connecticut Huskies made me some cash in their second round game when I banked some money on them slapping around the Aggies from Texas A&M but for some reason I went against them with Purdue in the Sweet 16 and that was a dumb mistake. I actually said after the second round that I would back them no matter what in the next round because the winner of Purdue and Washington was going to be coming off a war and half and they would be too tired and too rusty from the floor to ball with UConn...but I changed my mind for some reason. Anyways, I am going against them again. UConn comes into this game averaging 88.8 points per game in their last five games (WOW!) and they have shot 46.0% from the floor in those games. That is too much for most teams to handle as we have seen but Missouri is a team that can score 100 a game anytime they want. The Tigers despite scoring all those points have actually been great defensively as well allowing only 69.6 points per game in their last five games and allowing those opponents to shoot only 40.4% from the floor. Much like the Huskies, Missouri has not allowed shit from the perimeter as their last five opponents have made only 24.7% of their three point shots and made only 4.8 three pointers per game in those games. UConn has made only 27.8% of their three point shots in their last five games, it could have cost them against Purdue, and they have made only 25 three point shots in their last five games. I also don't know how I can bet on a team that lets other teams stick around as they have shot only 61.8% from the floor in those last five games and that's just pathetic. I know for sure they are going to get to the line a lot of times against a Missouri team that loves to run but that doesn't defend the interior all that well but what's the point of that if you suck at shooting free throws? The Huskies are going to continue to dominate the boards on both the offensive and the defensive side of things so a lot of their points are going to come off second chances or maybe even third and fourth chances but that's fine because the times that Missouri have been outworked on the glass has been a direct result of their anticipation of the transition game in return and the Tigers are going to continue to run the floor even if they give up basket after basket. That should slow UConn's offensive rythm down a bit and that should allow the Tigers to keep this game close even if they give up all those second chances to the Huskies. Connecticut's guard play has been tremendous and not much more can be said about how good this team really is but they have turned the ball over 14.0 times per game in their last five games and that is a big concern for me against a Missouri team that presses a lot and that has forced 12.8 turnovers per game in their last five games and averaged 7.0 steals per game in those games. I know the Tigers don't match up on size and Thabeet could have his way most of this game but the perimeter is going to be shut down and believe me when I say that Missouri is going to answer every Connecticut score with a 2-3 second drive down the court the other way. Even if they don't score on that chance, the Tigers are always ready to go right back at it and it's been a long time since UConn has played against a team that can run with them or a team that can take control of the tempo the way I think Missouri can in this game. The Tigers last five opponents have found it hard to move the ball around and get some open looks or easy dishes down low and that means the Tigers have allowed only 10.2 assists per game in their last five games. Connecticut is going to score some points but it won't be nearly enough as it always is because once again Missouri is going to be right there with them matching each and every shot. This should come down to the wire and I am ready for a great game.

You cannot hate on either team really but what I think we are all waiting for is the injury Jerome Dyson to finally affect the Huskies who so far have not shown any signs that they would be doing better in this tournament with him in the lineup. Having said that, this game is a battle of guards more so than any of the Huskies other games in this tournament and we all saw what teams with good guards can do to them (Syracuse game was a great example even though the Orange got lucky in that one). Missouri on the other hand is a virtual unknown to the world of deep runs in this tournament but they are Big 12 Conference champions and are really showing why and how they won that titles. Why stop now. Missouri is now 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a straight up winning record. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win, 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games, 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games overall and they have covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 games overall this season. THIS TEAM IS ON FIRE. Connecticut on the other hand is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games which means that prior to this tournament they had dropped seven straight games in the tournament and they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on a Saturday. I think Connecticut was lucky to cover against Purdue because the Boilermakers showed how poorly coached they are and the Huskies made a lot of mistakes in that game, mistakes that Purdue could not make them pay for but that Missouri is surely going to make them pay for. I love the Tigers here guys. I would love the upset but nonetheless they are going to cover the spread.

Trend of the Game: Missouri is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.


Missouri 84, Connecticut 82




More selections to come...
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[kingking]

thanks flava :cripwalk:

 

[GOLDDUST]

Like it

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Elite Eight


View attachment 6817 Villanova Wildcats +2 (50 Units) View attachment 6816

***PLAY OF THE ELITE EIGHT***

The Villanova Wildcats look they are going to be impossible to beat right now and this is probably the best game of the Elite Eight. Having said that, most of the best game of this tournament have not lived up to their billing and it would not surprise me if the we said the same about this once all is said and done. Having said that, I know for a fact neither one of these teams is going to get blown out and we are going to have a fantastic game that goes back and fourth and that involves a ton of physical contact and some outstanding plays from the guards. The Wildcats have already slain some big time names in UCLA and Duke and seeing how at least one #1 seed is probably going down today, they could win this game straight up. Villanova comes into this game averaging 75.4 points per game in their last five games and have managed to shoot only 42.8% from the floor in those games but Pitt shots the exact same in those games so I don't see it being that big of a deal when this game is all about who makes the bigger defensive stops. Both teams have tremendous defenses so no sense me telling you how Pittsburgh holds their last five opponents to 2.7 less points per game than the NCAA average or how they have held those opponents to only 37.8% shooting from the floor (because Nova has done the same). This game is all about crashing the boards and working in the paint because as much as Villanova thinks they are a good three point shooting team, I would beg to differ and would much rather see them work the inside where they have had tons of success with Cunningham becoming an elite player in the Big East Conference. Even at that, the Panthers are outstanding in their perimeter coverage and the Wildcats are better off loading up inside. I say that because not only have the Panthers allowed their last five opponents to go to the free throw line 18.4 times per game but Villanova has been to that line 24.6 times per game in their last five games and they are the best free throw shooting team left in this tournament making 80.5% of their free throws in the last five games. This team is the real deal. We saw them play the Panthers this season and have success because they outrebounded Pitt, something not many teams can do. Well I think they can do it again seeing how they average 37.2 rebounds per game in their last five games and have worked hard for 11.2 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Panthers are a good rebounding team but they have struggled to protect their own basket and their last five opponents average 32.4 rebounds per game and Pittsburgh has allowed those opponents a ton of second chances around the basket allowing 12.8 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games (only reason teams like Xavier and Oklahoma State almost beat these guys). I also think the Wildcats are better off dishing the ball inside because when they work the perimeter they have been turning the ball over carelessly despite the 14.0 assists they average per game in their last five games. The Panthers have had it tough trying to force turnovers and that is why they cannot seem to cover a spread in this tournament as they have forced only 9.4 turnovers per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 12.9) on only 4.4 steals per game and at the same time they have allowed too much ball movement from the perimeter to the inside and allowed 13.2 assists per game which is going to come back to haunt them against a team like Villanova that has a bunch of guys that can work it down low (both on the court and off the bench, this is a deep team). I think Villanova can outwork the Panthers, something Oklahoma State and Xavier did for 35 of the 40 minutes in their games and we will be talking about a Villanova team in the FINAL FOUR!

The Pittsburgh Panthers have cut things close one too many times for my liking and after watching that happen, I will gladly go against them and expect another #1 seed to go down in flames here. I cannot believe we have this many Big East Conference teams left in the tournament but it only makes sense because this is the best conference in college basketball. What's even more concerning for the Panthers is that they trailed against both Xavier and Oklahoma State the last two rounds, but the heroics of Lavance Fields are the only reason they are here today and had it not been for his magic at the end of both games, we would be talking about what could have been for this team. The Panthers come into this game averaging 69.2 points per game in their last five games which is a lot less than Villanova and that is a problem because the Panthers shoot only 42.9% from the floor in those games and poor shooting here won't cut it. Villanova's defense has been just as good as Pittsburgh's and the Wildcats have allowed their last five opponents to score only 66.8 points per game in their last five games and allowed those opponents to shoot only 37.7% from the floor in those games. The Panthers have tried to get their perimeter offense going in recent games but have shot only 28.9% from three point range in their last five games and have made only 5.2 three pointers per game in those games. Their chances of running away with this are not good if you ask me. Villanova's perimeter defense has not been good and their opponents have unloaded on them in recent games but again the Panthers just don't shoot the ball well enough from beyond the arc to be effective in this game and that is going to be a problem. I say that because these guys don't get to the free throw line nearly as many times as Villanova does having gone to the free throw line only 19.2 times per game in their last five games and in those games they have made only 68.8% of their free throws which won't keep them anywhere near the Wildcats if they can't get to the line and draw some fouls. Villanova has one of the deepest benches in the Nation, they are always making substitutions to keep fresh legs and I think they are going to be a big problem for the Panthers in this game. We already talked about the importance of rebounding and the effect it had on their prior meeting this season but as much as both teams rebound well, Villanova does a much better job in recent games as their last five opponents average only 27.8 rebounds per game and those opponents average only 6.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Where Pitt has the advantage is in their guard play and how they don't turn the ball over much per game and are not as careless as Villanova can be at times. Having said that, the Wildcats defense is a lot more aggressive than Pitt's defense or that Xavier's defense or than Oklahoma State's defense as they have forced 13.8 turnovers per game in their last five games and average 7.8 steals per game in those games. The pace is probably going to go back and forth in this game so this will come down to who can make the bigger plays in the end, who can stop Levance Fields when he decides it's time to takeover the game again and who can have the last say and I think Villanova is in a better position to do that. They have been more effective on both offense and defense in their last five games and like I already said, the Pitt Panthers have looked shaky on too many occasions and that is going to come back to bite them in the end...well this is the end and the Panthers will once again be left wondering what happened to them in a tournament that looked so promising.

How much move validation do you guys need anyways to know that this is going to be a very close game? We already saw what Villanova can do to Pittsburgh in January when the Wildcats beat the Panthers by 10 points at home as a +3.5 underdog and now you are telling me that a neutral court is going to give them pretty much the same spread with both teams playing miles and miles away from home? WOW! Prior to this season the Panthers had always dominated the games between these two teams and covered the spread in four straight but that game in January was huge because Villanova is playing much better now than they were then and Pittsburgh has taken a few steps back. Villanova comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament as an underdog and I learned that the hard way in their game against Duke (im an idiot for that one I have to admit). Villanova has also been very good on Saturdays going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record and they are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a neutral site underdog. Pittsburgh on the other hand has made me some cash playing on Saturdays this season but they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win, they are a pathetic 1-6 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 and are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games overall. Pittsburgh has been struggling for quite some time now in both the Big East Conference Tournament and in this tournament as well and I don't think they can snap out of it. Villanova is the better overall team right now and we will see that tonight. Wildcats to the bank!

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.


Villanova 69, Pittsburgh 66




More selections to come...
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[SharpSquare]

The over almost looks too easy in this game (uconn game).

 

[BoiseBrian]

I am stoked to see the nova play...I hope you're right
Gl bro:toast:

 

[NeedALiving]

im against on both games, lets goooooo

 

[El Stugoto]

With you on Nova, going Uconn in the early game tho. My fav play is Nova under 142 tho. BOL

 

[JWinner17]

Love the NOVA play!!! BOL Flava!!!

 

[MikRetSam]

50 unit play of the elite eight and u have them winning by 3 pts??????????

 

[willb3rd]

Nice Call on Nova. The BEST game of the tourney thus far.

 

[IvanPutski]

Nova Baby<<<<

 

[MistaFlava]

Needed that one to get back on track...still not doing all that bad. Glad I got my largest play of the tournament in.

See you all tomorrow. Congrats to all winners.

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Elite Eight


View attachment 6822 Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6821

The Michigan State Spartans in a sense don't really deserve to be here but they did pull a pretty impressive comeback against Kansas so I guess their trip is warranted although I think they got lucky to play against a very young Jayhawks team that had no clue how to close out a close games. Having said that this is a talented team that played very well for the most part of the season and they are now the lone remaining Big Ten Conference team so there is a lot of pressure on these guys to represent. Well after such a tough game, Louisville is not who you want to play on one days rest. The Spartans come into this game averaging 70.4 points per game in their last five games but they have not shot well from the floor making only 42.3% of their shots in those games and you cannot possibly think you are going to beat Louisville shooting the ball like that. The Cardinals have allowed only 62.2 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 39.9% from the floor. Huge problem for Michigan State. The Spartans have been horrendous from the perimeter their last five games shooting only 31.1% from beyond the arc and making only 4.6 three point shots per game in those games. Regardless of that, Lousivlle is a tremendous perimeter guarding team allowing their last five opponents to make only 30.9% of their three point shots on only 5.8 three pointers made per game in those games. The Spartans have been all about inside ball movement and attacking the paint as they have been to the free throw line a ton of times per game in their last five games and shoot free throws pretty damn well. Having said that, the Cardinals have one of the best interior defenses remaining in this tournament as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line only 13.6 times per game and if they can shut things down in the middle in this game, Michigan State is going to be forced to shoot from the perimeter and that is when things go bad for the Spartans. They are not a perimeter team and don't shoot the ball well enough from the outside. There is no doubt in anyone's minds that Michigan State is the best rebounding team to come out of the Big Ten Conference in this year's tournament although Purdue was pretty damn good too but it won't be easy to rebound against a Louisville team that has allowed only 29.8 rebounds against per game in their last five games. The only way Michigan State stays close in this game is if they can bring down a bunch of boards and score a lot of times off second chance opportunities which I just don't see happening here. The guard play has been good for the Spartans in their last five games and some of the younger guys on this team have done a lot of growing up. Having said that, they do turn the ball over 12.4 times per game in those games and although that's below the NCAA average it could turn into a problem for a team that has to face the most aggressive pressure defense left in the tournament...the Cardinals. Louisville has managed to force a whopping 16.6 turnovers per game in their last five games and average a whopping 9.8 steals per game in those games. Michigan State's last five opponents averaged 7.2 steals per game against them and when the Spartans start missing shots and turning the ball over, this game is going to get out of hand in a hurry boys and girls. The Cardinals are too good inside averaging 5.2 blocks per game in their last five games and like I said before, Michigan State is all about attacking the basket and working the paint, something they are going to have problems doing in this game which means they now become a perimeter team and that means they lose this game big. This team cannot make shorts from the outside, they are going to feel the pressure of the Cardinals defense and this is the end of the line for the Spartans. Very bad matchup if you ask me and I think they are done with against this defense.

The Louisville Cardinals are still my bracket pick to win it all. I have been impressed big time by the way this team has responded to adversity and just to tell you right now, they seem to play their best basketball against other good teams and rarely this season have you seen Rick Pitino's guys struggle against other TOP 25 ranked opponents. This is a team with a bunch of veteran players who have been here and done that already and they actually remind me of Villanova a little bit because of their depth off the bench and their ability to really light up a game. This is an electrifying team that is relentless in their attack. Louisville comes into this game averaging 80.2 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting a whopping 51.0% from the floor in those games. Despite a slow start to this tournament, the Cardinals had an easy game against Arizona where they had the opportunity to rest their starters for most of the second part of the second half and that is going to be huge here. Michigan State has allowed their last five opponents to score 66.2 points per game and allowed those opponents to shoot 43.2% from the floor which is close to the NCAA average and unusual for a Michigan State defense. There is not team in the Country or in the tournament shooting the three ball better than Louisville as the Cardinals have made a whopping 43.4% of their three point shots the last five games and are averaging a ridiculous 11.2 three point shots made per game in those games. WTF!!! Having said that, Michigan State is a team that is going to pressure the perimeter and guard the outside with everything they have so the Cardinals will probably have to focus on moving the ball inside as well and creating penetration to get some guys open on the perimeter. I'm telling you right now that Louisville is not going to shoot the lights out from beyond the arc in this game but they do have other options to open things. The Spartans have had a tough time containing teams inside as they have sent their last five opponents to the free throw line 21.6 times per game and Louisville should be licking their chops at the chances to move the ball inside for the first time this tournament as they have not been to the free throw line much and have played teams that chose not to guard their perimeter shooters. The Cardinals are flexible and can play both games. They have one of the best college basketball coaches in the Nation and in-game adjustments are what these guys are all about (remember their title game against Syracuse when they were down a ton and had to cover a -9.5 spread or something and they got the job done in the second half?). The Spartans have no interior presence as they have only 1.8 blocks per game in their last five games and again I think the Cardinals can have success moving the ball inside. Sure the Spartans are a good rebounding team so is Louisville despite their perimeter based game the last five games. In those games they have managed to bring down 32.6 rebounds per game and toughness is what these guys are all about both inside and outside. They have some of the best ball moving guards (and playmaking while we are at it) in the Nation as they average 19.8 assists per game in their last five games despite playing at a crazy pace and despite turning the ball over quite a bit in those games. Having said that, Michigan State is not aggressive enough defensively (they sit back a lot more than they attack) and have forced only 12.6 turnovers per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents (none with true playmaking guards like Louisville has) to average 13.0 assists per game. That is not MSU defense and that is not good defense so that is why I think they have problems covering this spread here today. I think the Spartans looked sharp at the end of the Kansas game but they got lucky and any mistakes or any lacking on the defensive side in this game and they are going to find themselves down 10 points in a hurry. I think Louisville is too well rested not to win this game big and we are going to see a Louisville team that looks unstoppable heading into the FINAL FOUR next weekend. Get ready for this.

Louisville is rested and coming off an easy game while Michigan State is tired and coming off a war. You tell me that gives the edge to in a game that should be full of intensity? Why is nobody talking about the Raymar Morgan injury anyways? He just broke his nose last game and it doesn't seem to bother people betting on the Spartans in this game. I mean he is worth 10.9 points a game for this team, he has not played well in this tournament but has done the small things well and he is a Junior with experience which is a big time loss for Michigan State even if he does end up playing in this game with face protection. There is nothing bad to say about either team and the way they have both played on the spread in recent games (although Louisville took a while to get going). Having said that, Michigan State does not match up well against Big East Conference opponents going only 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus opponents from that Conference. Louisville on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 on the season which goes back to my point that we see their best against good teams. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points (depending on the line you have). The Cardinals are one of the best spread teams of the last three or four seasons going 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games overall and I think they finally breakout of their funk against Big Ten Conference teams. These Louisville kids are well rested and it's going to show in the second half of this game. BLOW THE SPARTANS AWAY BABY!

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.


Louisville 79, Michigan State 64




More selections to come...
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[Fearloathing]

I'm with you on the ville...just can't bet on a big 10 team vs. a big east school the way they have shown in the tourney so far...

 

[JWinner17]

I can't agree with Flava on Lousiville more!!! Let's go get'em today!!!

Taking Louisville -325 today!!!

 

[hubbard316]

G/L

Im down

 

[MRPOOPS]

I can't agree with Flava on Lousiville more!!! Let's go get'em today!!!

Taking Louisville -325 today!!!

Got Lousiville -280

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Elite Eight


View attachment 6824 North Carolina Tar Heels -7 (100 Units) View attachment 6823

***PLAY OF THE NCAA TOURNAMENT***

The Oklahoma Sooners had their fun and they made a lot of people some money but I think their time is up. I made a big mistake going against them in the Sweet 16 although my initial hunch was on the Sooners in that game but I am not going to back down and I am going to fade them again right now. I like Oklahoma and I think they are a solid team but the minute a they play against a fundamentally solid team like the Tar Heels, I don't doubt they are going to struggle to keep up. It's very rare that UNC goes cold the way some the Sooners opponents in this tournament have gone cold at times and the Tar Heels will take full advantage of any mistake Oklahoma makes. The Sooners come into this game averaging 78.2 points per game in their last five games and have shot an incredible 53.7% from the floor in those games but their place of play is a bit too slow for North Carolina and you have to know that despite allowing 70.8 points per game in their last five games, North Carolina has held those opponents to 41.8% shooting from the floor and that is a good number for these guys. It may have looked in their last game like the Sooners were shooting the lights out from three point range because they kinda were but the Sooners are shooting only 30.7% from three point range in their last five games and have made only 5.4 three pointers per game in those games. That is going to benefit North Carolina because the Tar Heels only problem defensively has been the amount of three point shots they allow per game as they have allowed opponents to shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc. Having said that, the Sooners game is all about the down low action with Blake Griffin and this team goes to the line a bunch of times per game but the problem with that is that they have made only 65.7% of their free throws in their last five games and in a fast paced game like this one, that is going to be a problem because UNC can foul all they want in this game but Oklahoma is going to miss some free throws here and in the end it will cost them the chance to keep this game close. The Tar Heels are very aggressive inside, they are very strong inside and their last five opponents have had all sorts of problems getting to the free throw line as they have been there only 13.8 times per game and that makes the Sooners a perimeter team, something they can do but have not done much of in the last five games. The Tar Heels defense is a lot better than the Syracuse defense and their offense is a million times better too. You can call the Sooners are good rebounding team all you want but in the end the Tar Heels are as good as it gets in this tournament and you have to rebound well to make it this far anyways. What's strange is that for a good rebounding team, the Sooners have only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and again the pace of this game is going to demand that they do more than that...something I am not sure they can do against the Tar Heels. Seeing how both teams have good size and both teams have good toughness, this game is really going to come down to guard play and that is where the Sooners are really lacking in their opponent. Oklahoma has good ball moving guards and they do keep Blake Griffin active inside but having said that they turn the ball over way too many times per game in their last five games having turned it over 15.4 times per game in those games and allowing their opponents in those games to average 8.0 steals per game. North Carolina's fast paced game doesn't force many turnovers because they just force shots from the outside and grab the rebounds but the Tar Heels have still managed to average a whopping 9.2 steals per game in their last five games and they have forced a total of 13.2 turnovers per game in their last five games. Combine that with the points North Carolina can score in this game on the offensive side of things and again I think Oklahoma is going to have all sorts of problems hanging and playing at their own pace which is too slow for this kind of game. Not many teams are tougher than Okalahoma but North Carolina fits the ball and when you can be tougher than the Sooners you are going to beat this team. I think Oklahoma keeps it close for a little bit but in the end this game is going to slip away from these guys and we should see them down by quite a bit sometime in the second half. End of the line for these guys.

The North Carolina Tar Heels can dominate games like not many other teams can in this Country and although they lack consistency sometimes in the process, I have to say they should have been the overall #1 seed in this Country. I mean they are the most talented team by far with the deepest bench and with the best ability to score a ton of points in a short period of time and go on game ending runs with the flick of a switch. Having said that, when Oklahoma struggles to score in games they tend to let other teams control the tempo of the game and if that happens here, North Carolina is going to have a big lead early and in the end they are never going to look back. North Carolina comes into this game averaging 86.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to make 46.9% of their shots in those games. We all know how well Oklahoma can play defensively but I don't really care about that because the Tar Heels have seen that all season from opponents and not once has a good defense ever bothered them. Gonzaga was supposed to be one of the best defensive teams in the Country and look what happened to them. The Tar Heels don't take many shots from three point range but when they do you better believe they can knock them down as they have made 40.0% of their shots from three point range in their last five games on 6.4 three pointers made per game in those games. As much as Oklahoma thinks they can defend the perimeter they cannot defend it against a team like the Tar Heels and I have to say that Oklahoma has allowed 7.8 three pointers per game in their last five games and if they start allowing the Tar Heels to unload from the perimter, like I said this game won't be a game for long. North Carolina is also capable of doing anything they want inside because they have some of the best paint slashing players in the Country and have been to the free throw line 23.8 times per game in their last five games and have actually made 72.3% of their free throws in those games. No matter what you do to defend this team they always find a way to get second and third chances around the basket as they have brought down a whopping 40.0 rebounds per game in their last five games and 14.0 of those rebounds have been of the offensive kind which is 4.6 more than the NCAA average for those games. The Sooners because they have the Griffin brothers patrolling the paint do a good job of keeping opponents out of the paint and out rebounding opportunities off misses but the Tar Heels are the most relentless team in the Nation and that is going to show tonight. I know I talked a lot about the Syracuse guards being as good as it gets and how many problems they were going to give the Sooners because of their ability to move the ball and their ability to control the ball. North Carolina comes into this game having averaged 16.2 assists per game in their last five games and in those games they have turned the ball over only 9.4 times per game which is huge against this Sooners team. I mean Oklahoma has managed to force only 11.4 turnovers per game in their last five games so unless you shoot yourself in the foot like Syracuse did, you should have no problems scoring on this team, moving the ball on this team, penetrating the lanes and drawing fouls against this team. The Sooners average only 5.6 steals per game in their last five games and again if you cannot force turnovers you are not going to beat the Tar Heels because they are too relentless, they come at you a thousand miles an hour and even when they miss a chance they are always there for a follow up and do a great job on second efforts on both sides of the ball. Griffin is the best player in the Nation maybe but a certain Tyler Hansborough has also been there and done that in the past and believe me when I say that Hansborough knows what to do against players like Griffin and he will throw them down with the best of the best. North Carolina is the best team in this tournament, President Obama likes them and I think they are going to destroy Oklahoma in this game. Be ready for it.

Alright so the word on the street is that Ty Lawson is 100% healthy and that's pretty much all anyone needed to hear before it was time to fill out the brackets was that. But all we kept hearing was that his status for the tournament was questionable and that is why a lot of people left the Tar Heels out of their National Champions. Oklahoma is one or two players away from being a great team but Blake Griffin is gone after this year and they will never get the chance to really show what they are made of. I really think Hansborough is going to school Griffin in this game. You can like the Sooners all you want because they have made you some cash in this tournament but they have been favored in all their games and now I have to inform you that Oklahoma is actually only 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall as an underdog and only 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog. So they have sucked in this role and I don't see why they would get better against the beat team in the Country (talent wise). North Carolina on the other hand is impossible to fade on the spread. It just doesn't make sense to ever go against them. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points and they are a whopping 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games (all as a favorite). They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus Big 12 Conference opponents. They have covered the spread in 37 of their last 52 non-conference games and this is their time to shine. This is the last chance for Hansborough and company and they are going to impress big time.

Trend of the Game: North Carolina is 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.


North Carolina 83, Oklahoma 62




:toast:




Okay so Louisville looks like shit right now and I am not too happy about that but who knows they are a second half team and always have been so who knows where we are going. I am struggling right now, need to find a way to snap out of it and those smaller tournaments this week might help me do that heading into the final three games of the college basketball season. Good Luck to all!
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[MistaFlava]

There it is guys, that's my PLAY OF THE TOURNAMENT. Good Luck to all, like this one even more than Villanova yesterday.