MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 22-22-2 ATS (-78.50 Units)
I'm at 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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I'm at 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, January 29
View attachment 6317 Michigan State Spartans -6 (10 Units) View attachment 6318
View attachment 6317 Michigan State Spartans -6 (10 Units) View attachment 6318
The Michigan State Spartans are not in a position to mess around tonight and this is not a game where they can let their guard down, not even for a bit. As the #9 team in the Nation, the Spartans have to be on the ball each and every game they play and avoid losing to bad teams like they lost at home against Northwestern at this very same time last week. I actually think that game a big time lesson for these guys because as -12 point favorites in that game, the Spartans looked pathetic, they took the loss and they came back with a serious vengeance the next game with a huge road win over Ohio State as -3 point favorites in that game. I'm actually not all that concerned about the Spartans loss to Northwestern because we have seen that they can win on the road this season and looking back on some of their in conference road games, you will see that they went to Northwestern and won by 11 and they also went to Minnesota and won that game by 12 points. How about their four point win at Texas? See what I mean, the Spartans are now 5-2-1 ATS this season when playing away from home and there is no reason for them not to come in here and whoop some serious ass once again. I also don't think Tom Izzo forgot that disaster game the Spartans played here in 2008 when they came to Iowa City as -10 point favorites and lost that game to Iowa by a final score of 43-36 believe it or not. This team is a lot different this year and they have shown a lot more consistency in what they do. Michigan State comes into this game averaging 71.4 points per game in their last five games so you can forget about that 36 point performance last season when they played here and in those games they have managed to shoot 43.6% from the floor. Can you imagine if they shot the ball better? Iowa's defense is not all that and their last five opponents have shot 43.5% from the floor against these guys but I don't think they can handle the Spartans in this game. Michigan State has not been shooting the ball well from three point range which could be why they are not scoring 90 points a game but that could change tonight as Iowa has allowed 7.0 three point shots made per game in their last five games. What you have to understand about Iowa's defense is that they try to slow you down by shutting down all the lanes and making you move the ball around. They do not allow much action inside but Michigan State is going to bother them as the Spartans are a very aggressive inside team and they have been to the free throw line 25.6 times per game in their last five games and have made 73.4% of those free throws. Iowa does not allow a lot of penetration in the zone and they do a good job of forcing teams to jack up useless shots from the outside but the Spartans have a ton of size and they are going to penetrate that zone with ease. As a matter of fact they have 37.8 rebounds per game in their last five games, 14.2 of those rebounds being of the offensive kind and that is going to be a huge problems for Iowa in this game because even if they shut things down inside, the Spartans can jack up as many three point or long range shots as they want in this game and know that they have guys around the basket to grab the rebounds and get to the line. Michigan State has good enough guard play that they can handle the pressure defense as they have 14.4 assists per game in their last five games and despite turning the ball over a little more than I like, they are up against a pedestrian Iowa defense that has forced only 10.2 turnovers per game their last five games and that have only 4.2 steals per game in those games. The Spartans are very tough up front and Iowa won't like that very much as they average only 2.2 blocks per game in their last five games and Raymar Morgan should have his way in this game as long as he can play injury free. When the Hawkeyes move down to help inside, guys like Summers are going to make Iowa pay with some deep bombs. Iowa is too slow to keep up with high scoring offenses.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are in over their heads for this game tonight and believe me when I say that despite their win against the Spartans here last year as +10 point underdogs, this team is just not the same nor is that Spartans team. Only three members of last year's Iowa team that beat Michigan State are back this season and to be honest with you guys, those three players combined for a whopping 10 points of the 43 Iowa managed to score last season so you can forget about that. This is a brand new team, I don't trust young teams (Ohio State was a perfect example) because they tend to collapse in the second half of games even if they are leading at the half and this is what is probably going to happen to the Hawkeyes in this game. Iowa is 12-8 SU on the season and despite the 8-6 ATS record in those games, there is no way they compare to Michigan State and no way they match up well with them this year like they did last year. Iowa is actually 10-1 SU at home but who have they played? We saw how pathetic Wisconsin is this season so Iowa's overtime win over the Badgers at home last week means virtually nothing if you ask me. Their only home loss of the season was against Minnesota and it was by 3 points but the Spartans killed Minnesota earlier this year and they should have no problems doing this against Iowa tonight. Other than Minnesota, the best team Iowa played at home Indiana (horrendous team this season) and they only won that game by 5 points. This is by far their toughest home game of the season tonight and judging by the Minnesota game, they are not going to do all that well. Sure they are 3-2 ATS at home this season and they have won those 10 games but cmon guys, their strength of schedule is horrendous and they probably won't know what hit them when the Spartans come in here with their toughness. Iowa comes into this game averaging only 56.6 points per game in their last five games and believe me right now when I say that scoring only that many points is not going to fly in this game and this team has shot only 41.0% from the floor in those last five games. I know Iowa is going to shoot a lot of three point shots in this game because it's pretty much the only way to stay in the game against a team like the Spartans. Well the problem there is that the Spartans have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 32.2% from the outside and although they do allow a lot of three point shot attempts, that's by design because they would rather you beat them from outside and then beat them on the inside (believe me in the Big Ten teams cant shoot the three all that well). I have to let you know that 44.6% of the shots Iowa attempts per game in the last five games have been from three point range and eventually when they start missing those shots, Michigan State is going to take advantage of that and pull away in this game. The Hawkeyes have been to the free throw line only 17.2 times per game in their last five games and they are not all that aggressive on the boards. This is a complete mismatch for Iowa because they are hitting only 33.7% of their three point shots and do not have the depth to win the battle of the boards...actually it's not even close as they average only 25.8 rebounds per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 31.3 rebounds per game in the last five games) and that's a total of 12.0 rebounds less per game than the Spartans are averaging so unless Iowa can shoot the lights out in this game from three point range, they will not sustain long Michigan State runs and will lose this game by 10+ points. Iowa's guard play is just too fresh to compete here and they are too young as they average only 10.8 assists per game in their last five games and they have turned the ball over 14.6 times per game in those games which is a clear sign of youth and inexperience despite the games they have won. I know the Spartans are not the most aggressive team on defense because they sit back a little bit but that's not a problem because Iowa is going to shoot themseleves in the foot with turnovers in this game. They just don't have the guard play to keep up here, they are too young and they will no doubt be overwhelmed by Michigan State's ability to overpower opponents and finish off much younger teams in the second half of games. Once again, Michigan State is used to allowing other team to unload three point shots as their last five opponents have attempted 45.6% of their shots from beyond the arc and that's just the way this team rolls. They know they can outrebound just about anyone and they don't mind other Big Ten teams unloading on them knowing they are not going to make that many shots. The Spartans are too experienced for this Iowa team and the Hakweyes are going to struggle to score more than 50 points in this game.
This game should be nothing like that pathetic effort by the Spartans the last time they were in this building as they scored only 36 points in their visit to Iowa City last year and things can only get better this time. As I mentioned several times already in this writeup, Michigan State has been a lot better at home then on the road and they have huge road wins over teams like Northwestern, Minnesota or Penn State (all won by 10+ points or won as an underdog). So no doubt about this team can win this game and they can win it big and the line is not all that high. Michigan State has spent most of the season beating good home teams when they go on the road as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games versus home teams that have a home winning percentage of .600 or better. That would make them 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Believe this or not, Michigan State is a whopping 15-2-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Iowa on the other hand have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 home games, they have sucked ass on Thursday nights and despite having covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Michigan State, this Iowa team is the youngest it has been in years and with their slow paced game, are going to struggle to keep up with the Spartans in this one. I just don't see Iowa staying close at all here even if it takes another huge second half by Michigan State to get things done. SPARTANS WILL BANK THIS!
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 15-2-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Michigan State 68, Iowa 53
:toast:
Have a few more picks to go tonight, will post them as soon as possible. No NBA for me tonight.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are in over their heads for this game tonight and believe me when I say that despite their win against the Spartans here last year as +10 point underdogs, this team is just not the same nor is that Spartans team. Only three members of last year's Iowa team that beat Michigan State are back this season and to be honest with you guys, those three players combined for a whopping 10 points of the 43 Iowa managed to score last season so you can forget about that. This is a brand new team, I don't trust young teams (Ohio State was a perfect example) because they tend to collapse in the second half of games even if they are leading at the half and this is what is probably going to happen to the Hawkeyes in this game. Iowa is 12-8 SU on the season and despite the 8-6 ATS record in those games, there is no way they compare to Michigan State and no way they match up well with them this year like they did last year. Iowa is actually 10-1 SU at home but who have they played? We saw how pathetic Wisconsin is this season so Iowa's overtime win over the Badgers at home last week means virtually nothing if you ask me. Their only home loss of the season was against Minnesota and it was by 3 points but the Spartans killed Minnesota earlier this year and they should have no problems doing this against Iowa tonight. Other than Minnesota, the best team Iowa played at home Indiana (horrendous team this season) and they only won that game by 5 points. This is by far their toughest home game of the season tonight and judging by the Minnesota game, they are not going to do all that well. Sure they are 3-2 ATS at home this season and they have won those 10 games but cmon guys, their strength of schedule is horrendous and they probably won't know what hit them when the Spartans come in here with their toughness. Iowa comes into this game averaging only 56.6 points per game in their last five games and believe me right now when I say that scoring only that many points is not going to fly in this game and this team has shot only 41.0% from the floor in those last five games. I know Iowa is going to shoot a lot of three point shots in this game because it's pretty much the only way to stay in the game against a team like the Spartans. Well the problem there is that the Spartans have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 32.2% from the outside and although they do allow a lot of three point shot attempts, that's by design because they would rather you beat them from outside and then beat them on the inside (believe me in the Big Ten teams cant shoot the three all that well). I have to let you know that 44.6% of the shots Iowa attempts per game in the last five games have been from three point range and eventually when they start missing those shots, Michigan State is going to take advantage of that and pull away in this game. The Hawkeyes have been to the free throw line only 17.2 times per game in their last five games and they are not all that aggressive on the boards. This is a complete mismatch for Iowa because they are hitting only 33.7% of their three point shots and do not have the depth to win the battle of the boards...actually it's not even close as they average only 25.8 rebounds per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 31.3 rebounds per game in the last five games) and that's a total of 12.0 rebounds less per game than the Spartans are averaging so unless Iowa can shoot the lights out in this game from three point range, they will not sustain long Michigan State runs and will lose this game by 10+ points. Iowa's guard play is just too fresh to compete here and they are too young as they average only 10.8 assists per game in their last five games and they have turned the ball over 14.6 times per game in those games which is a clear sign of youth and inexperience despite the games they have won. I know the Spartans are not the most aggressive team on defense because they sit back a little bit but that's not a problem because Iowa is going to shoot themseleves in the foot with turnovers in this game. They just don't have the guard play to keep up here, they are too young and they will no doubt be overwhelmed by Michigan State's ability to overpower opponents and finish off much younger teams in the second half of games. Once again, Michigan State is used to allowing other team to unload three point shots as their last five opponents have attempted 45.6% of their shots from beyond the arc and that's just the way this team rolls. They know they can outrebound just about anyone and they don't mind other Big Ten teams unloading on them knowing they are not going to make that many shots. The Spartans are too experienced for this Iowa team and the Hakweyes are going to struggle to score more than 50 points in this game.
This game should be nothing like that pathetic effort by the Spartans the last time they were in this building as they scored only 36 points in their visit to Iowa City last year and things can only get better this time. As I mentioned several times already in this writeup, Michigan State has been a lot better at home then on the road and they have huge road wins over teams like Northwestern, Minnesota or Penn State (all won by 10+ points or won as an underdog). So no doubt about this team can win this game and they can win it big and the line is not all that high. Michigan State has spent most of the season beating good home teams when they go on the road as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games versus home teams that have a home winning percentage of .600 or better. That would make them 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Believe this or not, Michigan State is a whopping 15-2-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Iowa on the other hand have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 home games, they have sucked ass on Thursday nights and despite having covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Michigan State, this Iowa team is the youngest it has been in years and with their slow paced game, are going to struggle to keep up with the Spartans in this one. I just don't see Iowa staying close at all here even if it takes another huge second half by Michigan State to get things done. SPARTANS WILL BANK THIS!
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 15-2-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Michigan State 68, Iowa 53
:toast:
Have a few more picks to go tonight, will post them as soon as possible. No NBA for me tonight.
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