MistaFlava's CBB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (8-2 ATS last 2/Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 39-38-4 ATS (-37.50 Units)

Last 2 Days: 8-2 ATS

I am coming off a 4-1 ATS night last night and am now 8-2 ATS the last two nights. It was about time my capping work paid off. Okay so my PS3 project is on hold right now, the results are not doing shit, it was worth a try and it was fun for now. I will bring it back when I have time to do simulations but right now my work is more important and I will revert back to my old style for some winners. Time go on a huge run and bring this record back to something good. I can really start being useful around here. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Thursday, February 12

View attachment 6410 Louisville Cardinals -3 (10 Units) View attachment 6409

The Louisville Cardinals come into this game averaging 65.4 points per game in their last five games played and in those games they have managed to shoot only 42.1% from the floor and they have really struggled to find their game which is not good as March approaches. Both are well below the NCAA average but good teams always find a way to bounce back. Having said that, I have been waiting to either tail or fade this team depending on what kind of defense they play against next. What the Cardinals needs is to play against a weak defensive team to find their offensive groove back. Well look no further than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who have allowed their last five opponents to average 83.0 points per game in those last five games and the Irish have allowed those same opponents to shoot 46.2% from the floor which is just what the doctor surely recommended for Louisville in this game. The big problem I have with the Irish is their outside perimeter defense because too many times they fail to rotate in their defensive sets and their opponents are left with wide open looks from the outside which would be the reason Notre Dame has allowed their last five opponents to hit 37.8% of their three point shots in their last five games at 7.4 three pointers made per game in those games. The Cardinals have not shot the ball all that well from the outside in their last five games but again look for that to change as they get some wide open looks in this game and if this team starts hitting from the outside, they are going to win this game huge. I don't know what happened to this Louisville team but in their last five games they are just not aggressive enough around the basket and that is not their style. They are a team that can nail shots from the outside but at the same time make you pay down low and attack the basket to get to the line. Well not so much the last five games. However, expect that to once again change tonight against a Notre Dame team that has no sense of interior defense as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line a whopping 25.6 times per game in the last five games and the best way for Louisville to get back on track in this game is to play tough defense and make sure they move the ball around before attacking the hoop where Notre Dame is weak defensively. I would rate these two teams pretty even in terms of size and toughness around the basket because Louisville averages 33.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and so do the Irish but the difference is aggressiveness and the Cardinals always give themselves a chance with their 11.2 offensive rebounds per game in the last five games. The Irish take so many shots with their fast paced offense that their last five opponents have brought down a whopping 39.8 rebounds per game (NCAA average for those games is 31 rebounds per game) and the worst thing these guys could do would be to give Louisville momentum. Despite the Louisville guards being great playmakers and guys who can really move the ball around with their 15.0 assists per game, the Cardinals have turned the ball over way too much the last five games but expect that to change here today as Notre Dame is one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball and they have managed to force only 6.2 turnovers per game in their last five games and average a pathetic 2.4 steals per game in those games. When you give Louisville this much leverage on the offensive side of things they are going to make you pay for it big time. The Cardinals have struggled but they get to face a horrendous defense tonight and believe me they are going to find their offensive groove right back in this game and it won't take long to do it. Louisville has a very nice bounce back game tonight and glad the public agrees.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this game on one hell of a bad streak and they come into this game averaging 70.2 points per game in their last five games. Sure that sounds good but those games have all been losses and the Irish are shooting a horrendous 39.2% from the floor in those games (well below the NCAA average and pretty bad for a team that is supposed to have some of the top shooters in this conference). If anyone betting on Notre Dame thinks things are about to get any better for this team you better think again and think again fast because despite their offensive struggles of their own, the Louisville Cardinals know how to 'D' it up and they have allowed only 57.8 points per game in their last five games and in those games have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 38.5% from the floor which puts them in a great spot to dominate this game here and which is much better than the National average for those games. The biggest concern when you play against Notre Dame is their ability to knock down three point shots because that is what this team does well. Having said that, Notre Dame has made only 33.9% of their three point shots in the last five games and they are going up against a Louisville defense that has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 20.3% from three point range which means the Irish are in trouble. Actually the Cards have allowed those last five opponents to hit only 2.4 three pointers per game in those games. So do the Irish have any hopes of maybe scoring inside and beating the Cardinals down low? None whatsoever. Notre Dame is not aggressive around the basket and they don't attack the interior like other teams do. They have been to the free throw line only 13.4 times per game in their last five games and Louisville is fundamentally good down in the post and their last five opponents have been to the free throw line only 18.4 times per game which is well below the NCAA average for those games. So despite the fact that Notre Dame might want to attack the middle, that will do nothing more than turn into turnovers and result in Louisville points. I talked earlier about Notre Dame having a good rebounding team and they do, it's not a secret. The only reason opponents have kept games close with Louisville in their last five games is because they can do just that...rebound but having said that, the Cardinals are going to dominate this game from the floor and no matter what Notre Dame does, they are not going to win the key battles down low and that is what will decide this game tonight. You can forget about ball movement against this Cardinals team so unless you can hit 50% or better from the floor, you are not going to beat these guys or even come close to competing with them as they are just too pesky defensively. They have allowed only 9.6 assists per game in their last five games which should shut down any plans the Irish had of dishing passes down low to Harangody and having him just put them right in there like he has done all season and at the same time the Cardinals have forced a whopping 15.2 turnovers per game in their last five games with 8.6 steals per game in those games. WOW is all I have to say there. It's not just that actually. It's the fact that if Notre Dame thinks they can use their big man down low in this game and have some success, they have another thing coming against a Cardinals defense that has come up with a whopping 7.6 blocks per game in their last five games and that is ready for anything Notre Dame is willing to throw at them here in this game. This should be a dominant performance by the Cardinals defense and unless something changed overnight, I don't see the Irish competing for a full 40 minutes.

What the hell happened to Notre Dame anyways and their home win streak of 45 games that has really gone to shits now? Anyways you cannot possibly think the streak is going to end against a Louisville team that is also looking to snap out of a bad funk but the difference is that the Cardinals have won their games during the funk while Notre Dame has lost. Louisville, as a result, is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played overall and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four games that follow a game where they have managed to allow less then 50 points in that game. I think you should also all know that Louisville has covered the spread in 22 of their last 28 games played on the road and 21 of their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. The Cardinals are also a crazy 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 games played versus Big East Conference opponents and if there was ever a team to back in conference action and on the road it would be these guys without a doubt. Notre Dame on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, they are a pathetic 0-8 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with an overall winning record on the season, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus Big East Conference opponents and they have followed their last six straight up losses with failed ATS covers. Believe me when I say you want to be on Louisville in this game for more reasons than one. CARDS TO THE BANK!

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.


Louisville 78, Notre Dame 64





:toast:





I am a perfect 2-0 in tennis this morning with a huge huge underdog winner with Ancic and was 3-1 yesterday so things are going well. Will post the remainder of my plays sometime later on today. Good Luck to all, lets keep winning.
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[bookieskatrina]

nice run

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright so this is my second play of the night and I hope to keep the money train rolling right into the weekend in both CBB and tennis...

View attachment 6412 Illinois Fighting Illini -2 (10 Units) View attachment 6411

The Illinois Fighting Illini come into this game tonight averaging 55.6 points per game in their last five games and they have shot only 40.2% from the floor in those games so you are probably wondering why the hell someone would back these clowns on the road with below average numbers like that? Well its simple. This is their style of play, this is the pace they like to have in their games and so far it has worked for them to the point where they are the #20 team in the Country so why argue with it? It's also important to know that despite trying to play this same style of basketball, Northwestern has not been as good at it and although they have scored more points than the Fighting Illini, their defense has allowed their last five opponents to shoot 45.8% from the floor and that could be somewhat of a boost for the Illini in this game. Their three point shooting has been horrendous the last five games but it's a good thing only 28.0% of their shot attempts per game in those games have come from beyond the arc and if Illinois wants to take another shot at it tonight they should against a Northwestern defense that is horrendous on the outisde perimeter as their last five opponents have hit 37.5% from downtown and have made a whopping 8.4 three pointers per game in those games. I know it's tough to get around the Northwestern zone that protects the inside and that is not a secret but like I said before, Illinois is going to get a ton of open looks from the outside and the more they move the ball around, the more you will see openings up the middle. Should the Illini get to the line a lot in this game, they are making 77.8% of their free throws in their last five games and that is encouraging. What you have to understand about this tiny Northwestern team is that they can't rebound and Illnois, who have brought down 31.4 rebounds per game in their last five games are going to have an edge in size down low. The pace of the game is so slow and it's tough to get much going on the boards when all you have is one shot and out but the Fightin Illini need to win the battle on the offensive boards in this game and they need to find a way to get enough ball movement to break that Wildcat zone. I'm guessing if anyone can do it it has to be the Illini because they do average 13.8 assists per game in their last five games and to get around this very aggressive zone of Northwestern you cannot turn the ball over. Well Illinois has turned the ball over only 10.4 times per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 13.6 turnovers per game for that time span) and I really like Demetri McCamey's ability to press these defenses and make some plays and he is going to shine against this defense. As long as he moves the ball around enough to break down the zone, the Illini are going to run away with this game in the second half and they should win. All you need is a good ball handling guard and McCamey is that and some...

The Northwestern Wildcats come into this game tonight averaging 65.6 points per game in their last five games which is below the NCAA average for those games but they have shot 48.3% from the floor in those games and this team is playing a lot better than some would have expected. Having said that, their level of competition has not been all that great and I wouldn't put too much into the fact that they are shooting well because they do attempt almost 7.0 less shots per game in their last five games than the NCAA average does in those games. What is going to change for Northwestern is that the open looks won't be there anymore against this Illinois defense that has allowed only 56.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games their opponents have shot only 38.2% from the floor in those games. I think the Wildcats are going to have a tough time getting things going in this game. Illinois' defense is very good and they have proven that in recent weeks with some big wins in conference play. I have seen this Northwestern team play before and all they really do is run up the court and jack up three point shots. As a matter of fact 48.7% of their shot attempts the last five games have come from three point range and they have made 42.2% of those at 9.8 three point shots made per game. Sounds good right? Well good luck getting around the Fighting Illini's pressure defense around the perimeter as Illinois has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 30.3% from three point range and they do make sure a guy is in your face each and every time you jack up a long bomb. Other than that the Wildcats don't know how to score points and that is going to be a problem. They have been on the free throw line only 14.6 times per game in their last five games and even at that, Illinois does not allow teams to setup down low as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line only 13.2 times per game and Northwestern, should they get to the line at all, are not a good free throw shooting team. All Illinois has to do in this game is make sure Northwestern does not unload on them from three point range and the rest should come to them with ease. The Wildcats are horrendous on the boards and that's partly because they keep all their players on the outter perimeter which means there is nobody there to rebound when they miss a three point shot. They have averaged an NCAA low 19.6 rebounds per game in their last five games (NCAA average is 31.0 rebounds per game) and unless they get some second chances in this game they are not going to score many points. Illinois just doesn't allow teams to penetrate their inside guard and again this is going to be a bunch of one and outs for the Wildcats in this game tonight which almost surely means a loss. I do admire the way Northwestern moves the ball around the perimeter and how successful they have been doing it against weaker teams (they don't turn the ball over much either which helps) but this Illinois defense is nothing like they have seen in the last week or two. The Fighting Illini don't force many turnovers per game and they don't allow much ball movement. They just make sure that opposing teams get no inside penetration and they ensure opponents take shots from the outside only, challenging them to make those shots knowing that most teams in the Big Ten Conference are not good three point shooting teams. This is going to be a slow paced game where both teams struggle to score but in the end the Illini defense is going to be too much for Northwestern and Illinois should have no problems pulling away late in this game. There is always the three point shooting danger with Northwestern around but I am not concerned because Illinois has great outside perimeter defense. End of story.

Now the question has always been, can Illinois win games on the road in conference play and for the most part of this season the answer has been no. Well it seems this team has turned the corner and Vegas has yet to make the adjustment so we are going to cash in on what looks to be a bad line if you ask me. Illinois comes into this game 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600% on the season and they have also covered the spread in 13 of their last 19 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season. When you look back at past meetings the scores have almost always been rock bottom so the UNDER might not be a bad idea but the books have already caught onto that so the value is not great. I do have to tell you however that Illinois has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 visits to this arena and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Northwestern. Illinois is only 2-4 SU away from home this season and like I said before, if they want to be taken seriously as a TOP 25 team in this Country, they are going to have to start winning games on the road and tonight the emphasis is on getting a win in this game. Their only wins on the road this season were at Vanderbilt and at Purdue but that Purdue win was back in 2008. ILLINOIS GETS THEIR FIRST ROAD WIN OF 2009 TONIGHT!

Trend of the Game: Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus opponents with a winning % above .600.


Illinois 59, Northwestern 51





:toast:





I have a few more plays to go tonight, will try and provide writeups for most of them and keep the winning ways going. Should be fun, got some tennis this afternoon on Ferrero.
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[MistaFlava]

Alright so I feel like a complete public square tonight (and last night for that matter with my UNC and Oklahoma plays) but it seems like oddsmakers are losing their minds a little bit and it seems like this year more than others they are losing track of some teams and how properly cap them....

View attachment 6413 Utah State Aggies -5.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6414

The Utah State Aggies are good, they are a TOP 25 team and they come into this game averaging 72.0 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting an incredible 50.0% from the floor in those games. That puts this team right up there with some of the other surprise teams from smaller conferences over the last few years and both those numbers are well above the NCAA averages for points per game and shooting percentage per game in the last five games. What makes this an enticing wager is the fact that Idaho's defense has not shown many signs of life this season and the Vandals have allowed their last five opponents to score only 66.2 points per game which is below NCAA average for those games but they have allowed those same opponents to shoot 45.0% from the floor and you and me both know Utah State is going to take full advantage of this. The Aggies are an outstanding three point shooting team and even though they don't take many three point shot attempts per game in their last five games, they have nailed 44.6% of their three point shot attempts the last five games making 6.6 three pointers per game in those game. That's going to be a huge problem for an Idaho because despite not allowing teams to shoot much from the ouside, their last five opponents have made 36.4% of their three point shot attempts in those last five games. Not only can the Aggies knock em down from beyond the arc but they are aggressive to the basket and have been to the free throw line 22.0 times per game in their last five games, making 73.6% of those and I am guessing this will be a problem for an Idaho team that has sent their last five opponents to the free throw line 19.0 times per game in their last five games overall. The Aggies are not the biggest of teams but they hold their own around the basket coming down with 31.2 rebounds per game in their last five games and I think they will have success following up missed shots in this game against an Idaho team that has allowed their last five opponents to come up with 35.4 rebounds per game, 11.2 of those being of the offensive kind. The reason the Aggies are ranked and they have such a good team is because of their guard play which has been a direct result of 15.2 assists per game they have averaged over their last five games and the 12.0 turnovers they have committed in those games (both below the NCAA averages for those categories over the last five games). Idaho is a very aggressive team on the defensive side of things and they force a lot of turnovers while not allowing much ball movement around the perimeter but again Utah State can knock the lights out from three point land and that is exactly what is going to happen in this game here. As long as the Aggies stay disciplined in their offensive sets, they should have success hitting their outside shots and getting some good looks down low while forcing Idaho into some early foul trouble which could be deadly. Utah State shoots too well to be bothered by the pesky Idaho defense and I think they roll in this game.

The Idaho State Vandals never thought they would get to face a TOP 25 team in WAC Conference play and they come into this game averaging only 61.4 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot only 41.1% which is pathetic and not good enough to keep up with Utah State. As if Idaho's offensive problems weren't bad enough already coming into this game, now they have to go up against a Utah State defense that has terrorized conference opponents this season and that have allowed only 60.0 points per game in their last five games and that has allowed those very same opponents to shoot only 38.6% from the floor in those games. If Idaho thought they had a tough time scoring the last few weeks, things are only going to get worst here. The Vandals come into this game shooting a pathetic 28.9% from three point range in their last five games and that won't make much of a difference because Utah State perimeter defense has forced bad shots from their opponents and these guys love to play a close man defense against teams who move the ball on the outside. Although not a big three point shooting team, I do know that Utah State likes to attack the hoop and they do like to draw fouls as they have been to the line more than the average time the last five games and but I think they are going to find it tough to penetrate the Utah State zone that has allowed their last five opponents to go to the free throw line only 15.6 times per game the last five games (the NCAA average is 20.1 trips to the line for those games). That should eliminate anything the Vandals hoped to get going in the paint here and believe me when I say that when Idaho misses a shot, there is not second chane opportunity as they have brought down a below NCAA average 27.0 rebounds per game in their last five games and of those rebounds only 8.0 have been offensive rebounds. That should allow Utah State to come down with rebounds and get some points off fast breaks in this game because again it's not like Idaho is a good shooting team from the field. Their guards are slow and selfish and they dont move the ball much as they have average only 9.6 assists per game in their last five games and they place at such a slow pace that I don't see how they can be effective against the Utah State zone defense. This game is going to go back and forth but in the end Idaho's inability to clean up on the boards and their inability to shoot from the outside is going to be a problem and Utah State is going to pull away late and come up with some big defensive stops in this game.

I know some of you might hesitate to bet on a team you know virtually nothing about but I have watched them play a few times this season (first time I bet on them) and let me tell you this kid Gary Wilkinson is sick. The guy can do just about anything and he dropped 33 on Fresno State last week in the team's last road game. What you have to know about this team is that for some reason they are deadly away from home going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games away from home. They are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games versus teams with a winning home record (like Idaho has). I don't know that I would of backed them if they weren't coming off an ATS loss last game where they looked a little sleepy but this is a big game and the Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off an ATS loss. I can't really say anything bad about this team apart from I hope I did not miss the money train that has rolled through the station everytime this team plays away from home. Idaho on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last five games (all versus WAC Conference opponents) and I don't think they have enough of a home crowd edge to make a difference in this game tonight. The underdog has usually been cash money in this series but you have to understand that of the last six meetings, the away team has covered the spread in five of those games and Utah State is a great road team. WELCOME TO THE MONEY TRAIN NEW BETTORS!

Trend of the Game: Utah State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.


Utah State 74, Idaho 62




:toast:





Alright guys that is it for the night, hope to hit all three and my two tennis wagers currently in progress. Quiet card tonight but getting ready for something huge on Saturday. Good Luck to all, lets go 3-0 ATS tonight!!!
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[griffinm]

im with ya on louisville and the illini

 

[roadreeler57]

Nice writeups as usual Flava

 

[MistaFlava]

Thanks, good luck tonight!