MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 24-23-2 ATS (-69.50 Units)
I'm at around 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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I'm at around 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Friday, January 30
View attachment 6327 Butler Bulldogs -17 (10 Units) View attachment 6328
View attachment 6327 Butler Bulldogs -17 (10 Units) View attachment 6328
The Valparaiso Crusaders are not a team many people know anything about so if you are betting on this game tonight you are blindly betting on the Bulldogs because of their ranking or you are following someone else and taking their pick to the bank tonight (wink wink). The Crusaders are not a good basketball team, they are 6-15 SU on the season and have won only 1 single game away from home in 11 tries this season. I don't know why anyone would ever trust these guys heading into this game because they have shown on more than one occasion that they cannot ball with better basketball teams and that should be once again obvious tonight. Valparaiso got crushed at home earlier this season against this same Butler team and I don't see why the same thing wouldn't happen again in this one. The Crusaders have now lost five of their last six games overall, they are 1-5 ATS as well in those games and I have yet to see a good reason to back them in this matchup. Looking at their road results this season, this team lost by 20 on a neutral court against Iona, they lost by 24 at Cleveland State, they lost at Central Florida by 25 and they lost at Illinois Chicago by 25 points. That is just a small sample of the road games they have played this season and the scary part is that none of those games were against a TOP 25 opponent like Butler and this team is going to be way out of their league heading into this game. The last time this team covered the spread on the road was as a +25 underdog at Purdue where they lost by only 14 points in that game. Only thing is...that was on December 28 and they have lost and failed to cover the spread in every game since. Valparaiso comes into this game averaging only 59.0 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot only 40.3% from the floor in those games and that's not going to work tonight. I say that because Butler's defense is freak nasty and even if they don't score points in bunches, Butler has allowed only 52.8 points per game in their last five games and they have allowed those opponents to shoot only 35.0% from the floor in those games, both way better than the NCAA average. It's obvious that Valpo is going to jack up a bunch of three point shots this game hoping to catch up while playing from behind but that's easier said than done. I know they have shot well from three point raneg in their last five games but Butler's intense perimeter defense does not allow for any open looks and the only way to beat this team is to have guys who can feed the biggers guys down low. The Bulldogs have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 27.6% from the three point range and they have allowed only 4.8 three pointers made per game in those games. Because Butler takes away the outside passing game and they don't allow much penetration to the inside, Valparaiso will have to settle for horrible jump shots from the outside. The Bulldogs have allowed their last five opponents to go to the line only 15.2 times per game in their last five games and Valparaiso really lacks the players needed to challenge this Butler teams as they have been to the free throw line only 14.4 times per game in their last five games and in those games they have made only 65.3% of their free throws. Butler is not a team that can outrebound bigger teams but the problem here for the Crusaders is that they are even worst than Butler when it comes to rebounding as they average only 26.8 rebounds per game in their last five games and have to play against a Butler team that slows things down enough that their last five opponents have averaged only 28.4 rebounds per game. G Erik Buggs is a fast little guy and he can make some plays as the Crusaders have moved the ball well their last five games but they are way too turnover prone and have turned the ball over 14.6 times per game in their last five games and when you turn the ball over against Butler, they are going to make you pay for it. Butler allows no outside ball movement as their last opponents average only 9.6 assists per game and the Bulldogs really slow things down enough that opposing teams can go 5-6 minutes without scoring a basket. This game is going to be somewhat close in the beginning because the Crusaders might hit a few big shots here and there but they cannot ball with the Butler defense and we have already seen it once this season. This is a pathetic road team and I don't see them coming close in this game.
The Butler Bulldogs are not ranked #13 in the Nation for no reason and the whole point of having them play on National TV tonight is to showcase them and have people know what they are all about. I know this is not a marquee matchup and the motivation to win big might not be there for Butler but again, we hear experts all the time talk about how this team is not all that good and maybe not worthy of being ranked so high so any chance the Bulldogs get, they want to prove a point and pound away on much weaker opponents. Butler is a whopping 18-1 SU on the season, they are an even more impressive 12-4-1 ATS in those games. Wow, so how can you not love this team tonight playing against a horrendous Valparaiso team with the national spotlight shining all over them? You have to know that Butler is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and despite the 4-3 ATS record in those games, this team has come a long way and they have beat the crap out of some weaker teams here. The Bulldogs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and I don't see them being slowed down. They have covered the spread in four straight games and in 6 of their last 7 games. Recent home games have seen them beat Wright State by 16 points and Wisconsin Milwaukee by 30 points in their most recent game. Some find it tough to bet on a team that runs such a slow offense like Butler does but what you have to understand is that against teams who have big time problems scoring points, it almost always works and this team usually goes in 12-13 point runs that are almost always unanswered. I know the last time the Bulldogs were favored by this many points they ended up beating Detroit by only four points but that was a different and I didn't really like the Bulldogs matchup in that game. Now they get to face a much weaker opponent that is without two guys who scored a lot of points for them this season and Butler is here to make a statement in this game. The Bulldogs come into game averaging 67.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done on only 42.6% shooting from the floor which is not all that great. Having said that, they have played against some decent defenses the last couple of weeks but Valaparaiso is not all that good. They have allowed 69.7 points per game in their last five games and despite not allowing many teams to unload them, they are prone to blowouts when they go on the road and when they face teams that can shut down their offense. Okay so the points do kind of look good for Valparaiso but let me tell you that three point shooting is going to decided this game. In their last five games, Butler have hit 36.4% of their three point shots in the last five games and that means 9.6 three point shots made per game in those games. That's going to be a huge problem for Valaparaiso tonight because the Crusaders have horrendous perimiter defense and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc and have allowed those same opponents to make 8.6 three point shots per game. That's some big time trouble for Valparaiso because 51.6% of Butler's shot attempts in their last five games have come from beyond the arc and the fact that the Crusaders cannot defend perimiter teams is going to cost them the game and the cover tonight. I expect Butler to shoot the lights out from three point range in this game. Not only can this team shoot from the outside but when the Crusdaers move to man defense, Butler can move the ball down inside as they have been to the free throw line 19.4 times per game in their last five games and Valaparaiso doesn't have the bodies on the inside to handle guards who can beat the man pressure as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.2 times per game. If Butler can combine their barrage of three points shots made per game with the amount of times they should go to the line tonight (they are hitting 73.2% of their free throws in their last five games), they are going to win this game by 30+ points. We all know Butler is not the best of rebounding teams but as I mentioned before, it won't matter much in this game because Valaparaiso is just as small and just as weak on the boards having allowed more than 11 offensive rebounds per game against their last five opponents. All you need is good guard play and you can walk all over this Crusaders team. Butler has tremendous guard play as they average 14.6 assists per game in their last five games, they have turned the ball over 11.0 times per game in their last five games and all they really have to do tonight is adjust to the Valparaiso defense. Everytime the Crusaders send some man on the points, dish the ball down inside for the easy basket. When the Crusaders try to take away the inside game, move the ball around the perimiter and find the easy three point open jump shot. Valaparaiso has no size inside and Butler can really work the inside early in this game only to start dropping three pointers once the second half comes rolling around. Butler is here to make a statement and you cannot make statements unless you win by a rather large amount of points. This game may look close at times but in the end they are going to come away with a huge win because they can dominated both the outside shooting and the inside power game here. BLOWOUT CITY BABY!
Let's get real for a second here. Butler won the first matchup a few weeks ago by 12 points at Valparaiso so why in the world would they not be able to win this game by 20+ points now that they have moved this game to their own home court? Not only that...this is a NATIONALLY TELEVISED game for Butler and a perfect chance to showcase themselves and show the basketball world why the are ranked and why they are always picked to upset bigger name schools in the NCAA tournament year in and year out. These two teams have only met here twice in the past and both games were decided by single digits. Having said that the spread has never been higher than 10 points and the spread this time around is a clear indication of how much better Butler is right now. Valaparaiso is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and they are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents from the Horizon League. This team has not been a good underdog bet as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and Butler should have their way in this game. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus the Horizon League, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite and they are a very impressive 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played on a Friday. How the hell can you go against a team that has covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 games and that have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 games when they are favored by 13 or more points. Butler is also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. Butler should have no problems covering this large spread and how can you go wrong with such a reliable team? BUTLER BLOWS AWAY THE VALPS!
Trend of the Game: Butler is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Butler 78, Valparaiso 51
:toast:
That's it for CBB tonight guys, have a few NBA plays as well, lets cash this bitch! Some bad luck on VTech last night kinda ruined things for me. Anyways, some tennis should be in the cards as well for the Federer-Nadal final with very bettable odds.
The Butler Bulldogs are not ranked #13 in the Nation for no reason and the whole point of having them play on National TV tonight is to showcase them and have people know what they are all about. I know this is not a marquee matchup and the motivation to win big might not be there for Butler but again, we hear experts all the time talk about how this team is not all that good and maybe not worthy of being ranked so high so any chance the Bulldogs get, they want to prove a point and pound away on much weaker opponents. Butler is a whopping 18-1 SU on the season, they are an even more impressive 12-4-1 ATS in those games. Wow, so how can you not love this team tonight playing against a horrendous Valparaiso team with the national spotlight shining all over them? You have to know that Butler is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and despite the 4-3 ATS record in those games, this team has come a long way and they have beat the crap out of some weaker teams here. The Bulldogs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and I don't see them being slowed down. They have covered the spread in four straight games and in 6 of their last 7 games. Recent home games have seen them beat Wright State by 16 points and Wisconsin Milwaukee by 30 points in their most recent game. Some find it tough to bet on a team that runs such a slow offense like Butler does but what you have to understand is that against teams who have big time problems scoring points, it almost always works and this team usually goes in 12-13 point runs that are almost always unanswered. I know the last time the Bulldogs were favored by this many points they ended up beating Detroit by only four points but that was a different and I didn't really like the Bulldogs matchup in that game. Now they get to face a much weaker opponent that is without two guys who scored a lot of points for them this season and Butler is here to make a statement in this game. The Bulldogs come into game averaging 67.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done on only 42.6% shooting from the floor which is not all that great. Having said that, they have played against some decent defenses the last couple of weeks but Valaparaiso is not all that good. They have allowed 69.7 points per game in their last five games and despite not allowing many teams to unload them, they are prone to blowouts when they go on the road and when they face teams that can shut down their offense. Okay so the points do kind of look good for Valparaiso but let me tell you that three point shooting is going to decided this game. In their last five games, Butler have hit 36.4% of their three point shots in the last five games and that means 9.6 three point shots made per game in those games. That's going to be a huge problem for Valaparaiso tonight because the Crusaders have horrendous perimiter defense and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc and have allowed those same opponents to make 8.6 three point shots per game. That's some big time trouble for Valparaiso because 51.6% of Butler's shot attempts in their last five games have come from beyond the arc and the fact that the Crusaders cannot defend perimiter teams is going to cost them the game and the cover tonight. I expect Butler to shoot the lights out from three point range in this game. Not only can this team shoot from the outside but when the Crusdaers move to man defense, Butler can move the ball down inside as they have been to the free throw line 19.4 times per game in their last five games and Valaparaiso doesn't have the bodies on the inside to handle guards who can beat the man pressure as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.2 times per game. If Butler can combine their barrage of three points shots made per game with the amount of times they should go to the line tonight (they are hitting 73.2% of their free throws in their last five games), they are going to win this game by 30+ points. We all know Butler is not the best of rebounding teams but as I mentioned before, it won't matter much in this game because Valaparaiso is just as small and just as weak on the boards having allowed more than 11 offensive rebounds per game against their last five opponents. All you need is good guard play and you can walk all over this Crusaders team. Butler has tremendous guard play as they average 14.6 assists per game in their last five games, they have turned the ball over 11.0 times per game in their last five games and all they really have to do tonight is adjust to the Valparaiso defense. Everytime the Crusaders send some man on the points, dish the ball down inside for the easy basket. When the Crusaders try to take away the inside game, move the ball around the perimiter and find the easy three point open jump shot. Valaparaiso has no size inside and Butler can really work the inside early in this game only to start dropping three pointers once the second half comes rolling around. Butler is here to make a statement and you cannot make statements unless you win by a rather large amount of points. This game may look close at times but in the end they are going to come away with a huge win because they can dominated both the outside shooting and the inside power game here. BLOWOUT CITY BABY!
Let's get real for a second here. Butler won the first matchup a few weeks ago by 12 points at Valparaiso so why in the world would they not be able to win this game by 20+ points now that they have moved this game to their own home court? Not only that...this is a NATIONALLY TELEVISED game for Butler and a perfect chance to showcase themselves and show the basketball world why the are ranked and why they are always picked to upset bigger name schools in the NCAA tournament year in and year out. These two teams have only met here twice in the past and both games were decided by single digits. Having said that the spread has never been higher than 10 points and the spread this time around is a clear indication of how much better Butler is right now. Valaparaiso is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and they are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents from the Horizon League. This team has not been a good underdog bet as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and Butler should have their way in this game. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus the Horizon League, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite and they are a very impressive 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played on a Friday. How the hell can you go against a team that has covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 games and that have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 games when they are favored by 13 or more points. Butler is also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. Butler should have no problems covering this large spread and how can you go wrong with such a reliable team? BUTLER BLOWS AWAY THE VALPS!
Trend of the Game: Butler is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Butler 78, Valparaiso 51
:toast:
That's it for CBB tonight guys, have a few NBA plays as well, lets cash this bitch! Some bad luck on VTech last night kinda ruined things for me. Anyways, some tennis should be in the cards as well for the Federer-Nadal final with very bettable odds.
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