MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
Most of you know by now that I did not have a good regular season in College Football. All the money I made in the NFL, pretty much went down the drain in CFB. I finished 42-40-1 ATS (-292.80 Units) on the year losing a lot of money while hitting just above 50% of my plays. That is two consecutive losing regular seasons and I'm not too sure what I am doing wrong apart from bad money management and bad choice of big plays. Too many cappers talk smack and claim that 'The Bowl Season is where I make my money' so I'm not going to B.S. you and tell you that I will do any better in the Bowl Season than the regular season. I will tell you however that I tend to have a good read no things at this time of the year and have been making a killing in the NFL the entire season. I will be betting some of that NFL cash on all Bowl Games and my goal is to hit 65% or 100 Units in Bowl Games.
Once again, my goal is to hit the 100 unit mark or hit 65% of my Bowl Game plays.
1 Unit = $100
-------------------------------------------------------
Most of you know by now that I did not have a good regular season in College Football. All the money I made in the NFL, pretty much went down the drain in CFB. I finished 42-40-1 ATS (-292.80 Units) on the year losing a lot of money while hitting just above 50% of my plays. That is two consecutive losing regular seasons and I'm not too sure what I am doing wrong apart from bad money management and bad choice of big plays. Too many cappers talk smack and claim that 'The Bowl Season is where I make my money' so I'm not going to B.S. you and tell you that I will do any better in the Bowl Season than the regular season. I will tell you however that I tend to have a good read no things at this time of the year and have been making a killing in the NFL the entire season. I will be betting some of that NFL cash on all Bowl Games and my goal is to hit 65% or 100 Units in Bowl Games.
Once again, my goal is to hit the 100 unit mark or hit 65% of my Bowl Game plays.
1 Unit = $100
-------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, December 20
EAGLEBANK BOWL
View attachment 6043
View attachment 6047 Navy Midshipmen +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6051
EAGLEBANK BOWL
View attachment 6043
View attachment 6047 Navy Midshipmen +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6051
The Navy Midshipmen are playing some of their best football in a very long time and nobody is all that surprised that they just won 7 of their last 9 football games to finish the season with an 8-4 SU record. The good news for Navy is that QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada will most likely play in this game after missing a lot of time with injuries and he is the man you want running this offense against a very good Wake Forest defense. For those of you out there doubting that Navy is up for the challenge of beating the same team twice in one season, all I can really tell you is that this team is as tough as it gets and they are pretty much built to win pre-Christmas Bowl Games. The Midshipmen finished off their season with an impressive 34-0 win over Army and that was following a 16-0 win over Northern Illinois, meaning they have now pitched two straight shutouts and have not allowed any points since their 27-21 loss to Notre Dame. I don't know that you can call any of Navy's wins this season all that impressive but in the end they did beat Rutgers, they did beat Wake Forest and Air Force on the road and they kept things very close with Notre Dame. So their pedigree is not the best but they have shown on more than one occasion that they can compete with just about anything you throw at them and their wins over Wake Forest, Air Force and Rutgers should be enough to prove it. Navy comes into this game averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 322.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. Scoring points will probably not be that easy against a Wake Forest team that has allowed only 18.3 points per game in their last three games. The Deacons have also allowed only 261.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.7 yards per play in those games which is pretty damn good and should give them a shot at stopping Navy here. Having said that, Wake Forest was not able to stop the Navy running game the first time around so why in the world would they able to stop them this time around? The Midshipmen running attack was as good as it was all year in the last three games where they averaged 269.3 rushing yards per game in those games on 5.1 yards per carry. Wake Forest has been solid against the run most of the season and have allowed only 120.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games of the season on only 3.1 yards per carry. Again, the Navy rushing attack is much different than other rushing attacks and Wake really struggled the first time around. In the air, Kaipo is back at the QB spot but in their last three games of the season, the Navy QB's managed to complete only 26.9% of their passes for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. On that note, Kaipo has completed 57.1% of his passes this season, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and he is the best of the three QB's that have actively played this season. It's not like Navy is going to do much passing which again is a good thing against one of the best secondaries in the Nation that has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 48.4% of their passes the last three games for only 4.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. What has me the most impressed about Navy and these factors play a large part in my decision to back them in this Bowl Game, is the fact that they have lost only 1 fumble in their last three games on 157 carries in those games. THATS 1 FUMBLE LOST IN 157 CARRIES! Wow! They have also taken only 3.3 penalties per game in those games and have shown that they can be one of the most disciplined teams in the Nation. Wake Forest has always been a team that wins and loses based on how many turnovers they can force because their offense is not all that effective. The fact that Navy doesn't throw the ball means no interceptions and like I have already mentioned, they have been great holding onto the ball and that should play a huge factor in this game right here. The Demon Deacons do have a solid foundation on defense with a bunch of Senior getting all emotional playing their last game for this team but in the end, stopping a team that runs the ball 50 times per game is not something this team is used to and even with all the game tape they have to work with, I think they are going to have some problems getting their offense out on the field and going. Kaipo can actually pass the ball and if Wake loads up too many times, he is going to catch them sleeping in the air, that's for sure.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are motivated, they want to win this game and they want to exact revenge for their embarassing 7 points loss to Navy earlier this season as a -17 point favorite in that game. From what I have read about this game, the seniors on this Wake Forest are pretty emotional about this being their last collegiate football game and a lot of them have talked a lot about this game. However, instead of saying how badly they want to win this game, they have reflected more on the fact that they cannot believe their time at Wake is up which leads me to believe that although motivated to win, emotions may run a bit too high when it comes to revenge and Wake could be in for yet another rude awakening. The Deacons however kinda blew their season and playing in a pre-Christmas Bowl Game is more likely than not what they had in mind coming into this season. The season went bad when ACC play started full swing and that included losing two straight road games to Maryland and Miami. The Deacons then beat both Virginia and Duke at home before heading out onto the road and losing to NC State and then Boston College at home. Wake Forest is only 2-3 SU away from home this season and they are 2-3 ATS in those games so I don't know why you would trust them here. The Deacons come into this game averaging only 20.3 points per game in their last three games and that is going to be a huge problem here because Navy's defense has been on fire. Wake is averaging only 286.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on only 4.7 yards per play which means they have to rely solely on their defense right now. Navy has been sensational defensively the last three games of the season allowing only 9.0 points per game in those games and allowing only 248.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.2 yards per play...impressive stuff if you ask me. On the ground, Wake Forest was supposed to be a force to be reckoned with but they have rushed for only 107.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.2 yards per carry. Navy's run defense is probably their weakness as they have allowed 155.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Riley Skinner knows what this game means to a lot of the guys on the team and he has done his fair share as of late. He has completed 59.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. However, the offensive line has been horrendous as they have allowed 9 sacks in those last three games which has resulted in 3 Skinner interceptions. Navy's secondary is on fire right now having allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.7% of their passes for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt meaning they don't mind allowing small yardage as long as they don't give up the home runs. The secondary also has 5 interceptions in their last three games and they have managed to get a decent three sacks in those games. If they can continue to find a way to shut things down on the ground and force some pressure on Skinner in this game, the experienced Wake Forest star is going to once again struggle and probably turn the ball over the way he did the first time these two teams met. The Midshipmen have been very aggressive defensively recovering 4 fumbles in their last four games. We all know Wake Forest wants revenge on Navy for the loss earlier this season but getting that done against a team that keeps your offense off the field for extensive periods of time is very tough to do. I say that because the Deacons have been so ineffective as of late on the offensive side of things that keeping them off the field could actually be lethal in this case. The Deacons don't take many penalties and I'm sure Jim Grobe is going to have them ready this time around, expecting the frustrations of having to watch Navy run the ball time after time. Wake Forest had their chances this season but look at the way they have played on the road and believe me this is not the Bowl Game they wanted to play in.
All I keep hearing about is Wake Forest turning the ball over 6 times in their first meeting with Navy while losing by only 7 points. The general assumption is that because that could not possibly happen again in this game and that without those six turnovers, Wake Forest is going to walk all over Navy this time around. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! I have to admit that in general things do tend to turnout that way in College Sports when it comes to revenge situations but that I don't buy into it this time. Navy has come a long way since losing their first two road games of the season to Duke and Ball State. Navy has been an underdog of 7 and 8 points the last two Bowl Games they have played respectively and both those games ended in losses of three or less points (while covering the spread). Navy is now 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games and coach Niumatalolo already has Bowl Game experience having coached these guys in their three point Poinsettia Bowl Game loss to Utah last season. Wake Forest is 5-3 SU all-time in Bowl Games and under Jim Grobe they are 2-1 SU and ATS in Bowl Games. So we have two teams who know how to compete and play in the post-season and I expect nothing less than a complete dog fight. Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus ACC Conference teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Wake Forest on the other hand are a good team but I just don't see their motivation in winning this game so I say the dog barks pretty loud to open things up.
Trend of the Game: Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus ACC Conference opponents.
Navy 28, Wake Forest 13
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are motivated, they want to win this game and they want to exact revenge for their embarassing 7 points loss to Navy earlier this season as a -17 point favorite in that game. From what I have read about this game, the seniors on this Wake Forest are pretty emotional about this being their last collegiate football game and a lot of them have talked a lot about this game. However, instead of saying how badly they want to win this game, they have reflected more on the fact that they cannot believe their time at Wake is up which leads me to believe that although motivated to win, emotions may run a bit too high when it comes to revenge and Wake could be in for yet another rude awakening. The Deacons however kinda blew their season and playing in a pre-Christmas Bowl Game is more likely than not what they had in mind coming into this season. The season went bad when ACC play started full swing and that included losing two straight road games to Maryland and Miami. The Deacons then beat both Virginia and Duke at home before heading out onto the road and losing to NC State and then Boston College at home. Wake Forest is only 2-3 SU away from home this season and they are 2-3 ATS in those games so I don't know why you would trust them here. The Deacons come into this game averaging only 20.3 points per game in their last three games and that is going to be a huge problem here because Navy's defense has been on fire. Wake is averaging only 286.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on only 4.7 yards per play which means they have to rely solely on their defense right now. Navy has been sensational defensively the last three games of the season allowing only 9.0 points per game in those games and allowing only 248.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.2 yards per play...impressive stuff if you ask me. On the ground, Wake Forest was supposed to be a force to be reckoned with but they have rushed for only 107.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.2 yards per carry. Navy's run defense is probably their weakness as they have allowed 155.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Riley Skinner knows what this game means to a lot of the guys on the team and he has done his fair share as of late. He has completed 59.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. However, the offensive line has been horrendous as they have allowed 9 sacks in those last three games which has resulted in 3 Skinner interceptions. Navy's secondary is on fire right now having allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.7% of their passes for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt meaning they don't mind allowing small yardage as long as they don't give up the home runs. The secondary also has 5 interceptions in their last three games and they have managed to get a decent three sacks in those games. If they can continue to find a way to shut things down on the ground and force some pressure on Skinner in this game, the experienced Wake Forest star is going to once again struggle and probably turn the ball over the way he did the first time these two teams met. The Midshipmen have been very aggressive defensively recovering 4 fumbles in their last four games. We all know Wake Forest wants revenge on Navy for the loss earlier this season but getting that done against a team that keeps your offense off the field for extensive periods of time is very tough to do. I say that because the Deacons have been so ineffective as of late on the offensive side of things that keeping them off the field could actually be lethal in this case. The Deacons don't take many penalties and I'm sure Jim Grobe is going to have them ready this time around, expecting the frustrations of having to watch Navy run the ball time after time. Wake Forest had their chances this season but look at the way they have played on the road and believe me this is not the Bowl Game they wanted to play in.
All I keep hearing about is Wake Forest turning the ball over 6 times in their first meeting with Navy while losing by only 7 points. The general assumption is that because that could not possibly happen again in this game and that without those six turnovers, Wake Forest is going to walk all over Navy this time around. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! I have to admit that in general things do tend to turnout that way in College Sports when it comes to revenge situations but that I don't buy into it this time. Navy has come a long way since losing their first two road games of the season to Duke and Ball State. Navy has been an underdog of 7 and 8 points the last two Bowl Games they have played respectively and both those games ended in losses of three or less points (while covering the spread). Navy is now 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games and coach Niumatalolo already has Bowl Game experience having coached these guys in their three point Poinsettia Bowl Game loss to Utah last season. Wake Forest is 5-3 SU all-time in Bowl Games and under Jim Grobe they are 2-1 SU and ATS in Bowl Games. So we have two teams who know how to compete and play in the post-season and I expect nothing less than a complete dog fight. Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus ACC Conference teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Wake Forest on the other hand are a good team but I just don't see their motivation in winning this game so I say the dog barks pretty loud to open things up.
Trend of the Game: Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus ACC Conference opponents.
Navy 28, Wake Forest 13
NEW MEXICO BOWL
View attachment 6048
View attachment 6044 Colorado State Rams +3 (25 Units) View attachment 6042
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
View attachment 6048
View attachment 6044 Colorado State Rams +3 (25 Units) View attachment 6042
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The Fresno State Bulldogs were supposed to contend for the WAC Conference Title this season despite some experts locking that up and away to the Boise State Broncos. I don't want to knock on these guys too bad because I know it will come back to haunt me at some point in this game but Fresno State finished only 7-5 SU on the season but going only 2-10 ATS all season so why in the world would you be trapped into betting on them here in what looks like an obvious game. I think it's worth mentioning that the Bulldogs lost to the Rams in 2006 at home and it is also worth mentioning that since their overtime win over Toledo on September 20, 2008...Fresno State has managed to cover the spread only one time and that was in a road game against San Jose State. If that's not pathetic I don't know what is. This team finished their regular season with a 51 point loss to Boise State, they had all sorts of problems beating New Mexico State in their home finale (and thats a New Mexico State team that allows almost 500+ yards of offense per game on the season). All you really need to know is that the Bulldogs lost at home to Hawaii this season (shocking and disgusting) and they also lost to Nevada at home after losing to Louisiana Tech on the road. They quite possibly have the worst strength of schedule ranking of all Bowl teams right now. Fresno State comes into this game averaging 19.3 points per game in their last three games and that is downright pathetic as they did it on only 290.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. Colorado State is not known for their defensive prowness nor will they be once this game is all said and done. They have allowed 21.3 points per game and at the same time allowed those same opponents to average 414.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games which should give Fresno State a small chance in this one. On the ground is where this team will have to do it as they average 147.7 rushing yards per game their last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. The Rams have struggled against the run pretty much all season and they have allowed 216.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry in those games. For those of you who think Fresno is only going to run in this game, guess again. They have attempted 25 passes per game their last three games and have completed only 56.0% of those passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. The protection up front has not been all that great as the line has allowed 5 sacks in their last three games which has led to 3 Brandstater interceptions along the way. What really surprises me here is that Colorado State has not done much against the pass, yet they have been effective. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 56.7% of their passes for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt in those games. However, they have only 1 sacks in those last three games and have come up with 0 interceptions total...which can only means one thing...they are due big time to make some plays on defense. Fresno State has been shooting themselves in the foot pretty much all season with fumbles and those problems have not gone away in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have lost 3 fumbles in their last three games and if they are not careful here, the Rams are going to be as aggressive as they have been and that includes forcing fumbles (they have recovered 3 fumbles in their last three games). Fresno State doesn't lack discipline or anything but I just don't like the way they run their offense. If you are going to beat Colorado State you have to come at them with everything you have on the ground to setup some play-action a bit later on. Brandstater is not good enough to understand this and get the job done which is why I think he is going to make enough mistakes for his team to lose the game. You can run all you want and you can run all day long but the bottom line remains that if you do not have a QB that can make some plays, you are going to find it hard to beat just about anyone. All Fresno State bettors are purely 'brand bettors' as in they are going based on history and how well known Fresno State has become over the last few season. Well I'm sorry to say that the Bulldogs are just not the same this season offensively and that is not about to change in this game today. I would love to back this team in the future, but not here where they look like an easy small line favorite against a team that has little or no Bowl Game experience.
The Colorado State Rams are coached by Steve Fairchild? WTF! No wonder they didn't score many points this season because no way an ex Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator is going to score more than 25 points per game at any level of competitive football so that is that. However what I do have to say about this team is that they are resilient, they find a way to win and winning football games is all that really matters at this time of the year. The Rams have not won a Bowl Game since the 2001 season and winning this game would be huge for a team that was expected to do absolutely nothing more than get run over by opponents all season long. The Rams however found a way to win 6 games even with the lack of experience and leadership on this team and that was good enough to get the invite to play here. Despite losing to Air Force and BYU (lost by only 3 points as a double digit underdog) in consecutive weeks near the end of the season, the Rams really turned things around in their final two games beating New Mexico at home and then going on the road and spanking Wyoming to earn a spot in the post-season...again something that absolutely nobody predicted before this season. I think it's also worth mentioning that they came within three points of beating TCU at home and they did beat a very good and powerful Houston Cougars team. So this team has been through a lot this season. Colorado State comes into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games but those point totals should be higher as the offense has managed 388.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.7 yards per play which validates the yardage part of things. Fresno State has had no problems playing defense late in the season, it's more their offense that has been a problem. The Bulldogs have allowed 29.3 points per game in their last three games but in those games they have allowed only 292.3 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.9 yards per play in those games, going to show that their offense is responsible for a lot of the points scored against. On the ground, RB Gartrell Johnson has been stud all season with his 10 rushing touchdowns and he has led this team to 147.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry in those games. Things won't come as easy in this game however as Fresno State has allowed only 77.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed only 2.9 yards per carry in those games. So the solution here for Fairchild and his guys is to get things going in the air. QB Billy Farris has been pretty good all season and he has completed 55.4% of his passes the last three games for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 241.3 passing yards per game. He has some big play receivers that should be a nightmare for the Fresno State defense in this one. The Bulldogs have allowed their last three opponents to complete 66.0% of their passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt in those games which should be enough for the Rams to complete some really deep routes and big plays in this game. My only concern with the Rams is that their QB's tend to get careless with the ball and they have thrown 6 interceptions in the last three games. However, the Bulldogs defense is only successful when they can get their hands on the opposing teams QB and that's just not going to happen in this game as the Rams have allowed only 3 sacks in their last three games meaning the Bulldogs and their 9 sacks in their last three games cna forget about getting anything out of this. Turnovers really mean a lot in games like this and the main reason the Rams are playing in a Bowl Game right now is because they did such a good job holding onto the ball this season that it kept them in games. They have lost only 1 fumble in their last three games and it doesn't really matter because Fresno State has forced a grand total of only 1 fumble in their last three games. What needs to happen in this game is the Rams need to find the offensive mismatches that are going to occure on second down passing plays. This is a decent offense that has deserved more points in the last three games and I actually kind of like the job Fairchild has done with these kids, getting them all the way to a Bowl Game. So as happy as they are to be here,w inning this game would mean a winning season and not a losing season and when you are trying to defy all odds by doing something nobody thought you could do, you want to get the job done. I will take the Rams in the upset here because I really think they come to play football this afternoon.
On one side of the fence you have one team (Fresno State) that was supposed to be the upset central favorite of the season but that ended up in this Bowl Game instead and on the other side (Colorado State) you have a team that was supposed to finish dead last in the Mountain West Conference but that somehow found a way to win football games and sneak into a Bowl Game. I can tell you right now from a bettors perspective that the betting public did not bite on Fresno State as hard as I thought they would. That does however give me some hope that we are going to see some late action on the Bulldogs, that action coming after I remind you people that underdogs normally hit at a crazy rate when it comes to Bowl Games played before Christmas. You can say all you want about Fresno State and the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl Games. Having said that, did you know that they are only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games or that they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite in a game or that they have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 39 games overall? How about the fact that they have covered only 1 of their last 6 games versus Mountain West Conference opponents or that they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 32 games that follow a straight up loss? Wow need I say more? Colorado State loves this underdog role and I think this is a great spot to bet on them as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and I am calling for Fairchild to continue his turnaround of this program with his first College Bowl Game win to clinch an improbably winning season for Colorado State. We should see a lot of points in this game I think and in a shootout I will definitely take the team that can score more lately. I LOVE THE UNDERDOG HERE!
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 10-29 ATS in their last 39 games overall.
Colorado State 41, Fresno State 21
The Colorado State Rams are coached by Steve Fairchild? WTF! No wonder they didn't score many points this season because no way an ex Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator is going to score more than 25 points per game at any level of competitive football so that is that. However what I do have to say about this team is that they are resilient, they find a way to win and winning football games is all that really matters at this time of the year. The Rams have not won a Bowl Game since the 2001 season and winning this game would be huge for a team that was expected to do absolutely nothing more than get run over by opponents all season long. The Rams however found a way to win 6 games even with the lack of experience and leadership on this team and that was good enough to get the invite to play here. Despite losing to Air Force and BYU (lost by only 3 points as a double digit underdog) in consecutive weeks near the end of the season, the Rams really turned things around in their final two games beating New Mexico at home and then going on the road and spanking Wyoming to earn a spot in the post-season...again something that absolutely nobody predicted before this season. I think it's also worth mentioning that they came within three points of beating TCU at home and they did beat a very good and powerful Houston Cougars team. So this team has been through a lot this season. Colorado State comes into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games but those point totals should be higher as the offense has managed 388.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.7 yards per play which validates the yardage part of things. Fresno State has had no problems playing defense late in the season, it's more their offense that has been a problem. The Bulldogs have allowed 29.3 points per game in their last three games but in those games they have allowed only 292.3 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.9 yards per play in those games, going to show that their offense is responsible for a lot of the points scored against. On the ground, RB Gartrell Johnson has been stud all season with his 10 rushing touchdowns and he has led this team to 147.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry in those games. Things won't come as easy in this game however as Fresno State has allowed only 77.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed only 2.9 yards per carry in those games. So the solution here for Fairchild and his guys is to get things going in the air. QB Billy Farris has been pretty good all season and he has completed 55.4% of his passes the last three games for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 241.3 passing yards per game. He has some big play receivers that should be a nightmare for the Fresno State defense in this one. The Bulldogs have allowed their last three opponents to complete 66.0% of their passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt in those games which should be enough for the Rams to complete some really deep routes and big plays in this game. My only concern with the Rams is that their QB's tend to get careless with the ball and they have thrown 6 interceptions in the last three games. However, the Bulldogs defense is only successful when they can get their hands on the opposing teams QB and that's just not going to happen in this game as the Rams have allowed only 3 sacks in their last three games meaning the Bulldogs and their 9 sacks in their last three games cna forget about getting anything out of this. Turnovers really mean a lot in games like this and the main reason the Rams are playing in a Bowl Game right now is because they did such a good job holding onto the ball this season that it kept them in games. They have lost only 1 fumble in their last three games and it doesn't really matter because Fresno State has forced a grand total of only 1 fumble in their last three games. What needs to happen in this game is the Rams need to find the offensive mismatches that are going to occure on second down passing plays. This is a decent offense that has deserved more points in the last three games and I actually kind of like the job Fairchild has done with these kids, getting them all the way to a Bowl Game. So as happy as they are to be here,w inning this game would mean a winning season and not a losing season and when you are trying to defy all odds by doing something nobody thought you could do, you want to get the job done. I will take the Rams in the upset here because I really think they come to play football this afternoon.
On one side of the fence you have one team (Fresno State) that was supposed to be the upset central favorite of the season but that ended up in this Bowl Game instead and on the other side (Colorado State) you have a team that was supposed to finish dead last in the Mountain West Conference but that somehow found a way to win football games and sneak into a Bowl Game. I can tell you right now from a bettors perspective that the betting public did not bite on Fresno State as hard as I thought they would. That does however give me some hope that we are going to see some late action on the Bulldogs, that action coming after I remind you people that underdogs normally hit at a crazy rate when it comes to Bowl Games played before Christmas. You can say all you want about Fresno State and the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl Games. Having said that, did you know that they are only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games or that they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite in a game or that they have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 39 games overall? How about the fact that they have covered only 1 of their last 6 games versus Mountain West Conference opponents or that they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 32 games that follow a straight up loss? Wow need I say more? Colorado State loves this underdog role and I think this is a great spot to bet on them as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and I am calling for Fairchild to continue his turnaround of this program with his first College Bowl Game win to clinch an improbably winning season for Colorado State. We should see a lot of points in this game I think and in a shootout I will definitely take the team that can score more lately. I LOVE THE UNDERDOG HERE!
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 10-29 ATS in their last 39 games overall.
Colorado State 41, Fresno State 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
View attachment 6050
View attachment 6046 South Florida Bulls -11 (10 Units) View attachment 6049
View attachment 6050
View attachment 6046 South Florida Bulls -11 (10 Units) View attachment 6049
The Memphis Tigers really had people confused most of the season because of their up and down play and lack of consistency in the way they perform week in and week out but let's think about this matchup here. Sure the Tigers have played well but something has to give with this line and something has to give with the Bulls and the way they have played like garbage as of late. The Tigers come into this game with a miraculous run to the post season that saw them win 6 of their last 9 games this season to finish 6-6 SU on the year. That sure as hell means that they started the season very poorly but things together in time to reach a Bowl Game. On the two occasions that Memphis played against a Bowl-bound team away from home this season they got blown out of the water. The Tigers went to Ole Miss and lost by 17 points and they also went to East Carolina and lost that game by 20 points. This is a whole new territory for this Memphis team and something tells me they don't show up to play in this game. I have backed them on a few occasions this season but I cannot find a reason to take them against some of the veteran players on this South Florida team. The Tigers have not really faced any real opponents this season and that really has me concerned against a team with such explosive potential that will be motivated to play hard before the holidays to get this over and done with. The Memphis Tigers come into this game averaging a whopping 32.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have managed to gain 409.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play to go along with that. Impressive. However, this South Florida defense that has struggled all season is not about to let these guys come to their State and run all over them. The Bulls have allowed 25.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed 322.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Memphis is one of the top rushing teams in the entire nation as they average more than 50 carries per game and it has led them to 269.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry in those games. Yes that is one hell of a rushing attack but I don't see it being a huge problem for the Bulls who can afford to stack up the line in this one. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 136.3 rushing yards per game and allowed 3.5 yards per carry which is pretty damn good considering teams have run on them 40+ times a game. In the air, Memphis has been nothing short of useless in their attempts to get things going as they have completed only 50.0% of their passes the last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. This is where South Florida can really take control of this game and I say that because all they have to do is stop the run, and they should make some big plays in the air. The Bulls have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 56.6% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. They are not afraid to bring heavy pressure leaving guys wide open for a screen pass or the dangerous deep pass should receivers win their one on one coverage. I don't really know why I am even talking about Memphis and passing the ball because the Tigers have attempted 22.7 passes per game the last three games (which is actually more than I thought) and which is part of the reason I think they are going down in this game. Despite allowing 136.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games, the South Florida Bulls still have the #9 rushing defense in the Nation for the entire season so the fact that Memphis is going to have problems getting RB Curtis Steele going in this game can only mean that a huge bulk of the offensive duties are going to be sternly on the shoulders of the Memphis QB's. To me that is nothing more than a disaster because although this secondary has allowed some big plays this season, they have also made some big plays and they are going to be hungry playing on their own turf in front of what should be a very pro-South Florida crowd in this game. You have to stop Memphis early if you want to beat them because they average a whopping 16.4 points per first half in their last three games and going down early is really not what the Bulls need. At least we know they have played tough defense early in games allowing only 2.3 points per first quarter in their last three games. The bottom line for me here is that South Florida has the talent to really shut down the Tigers, force them into some big mistakes and turn this thing into an ugly Bowl Game.
The South Florida Bulls, believe it or not, were picked by several experts (in the pre-season) to contend for National Championship again this season and to be the darkhorse team that everybody fears and wants to try and derail as a cinderella story. Well boy did that ever go wrong as not once this season did anyone even consider these upset-minded (in the past) kids for a BCS Bowl Game bid and so far are those talks that I envision this Bowl Game being one of those where there is a weak opponent picked to take a few punches at a sleeping giant. Well that giant is the Bulls and they should be jacked up for this game. Believe me when I say that they do not want to lose at home in embarassing fashion in a game that means virtually nothing to any of them...except QB Matt Grothe who has been the heart and soul of this team for years and who has led them to all the big things the past few season. You also have to consider that South Florida was embarassed in 2007 when they lost their Bowl Game by 38 points and this is a good chance to get things back on track heading into the off-season. The only reason this team is playing before Christmas is because they finished the season losing four of their last five games and losing five of their last seven. Their only wins during that time were against Connecticut and Syracuse while their losses (some of them embarassing) came at the hands of Rutgers, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville and Pittsburgh. If there is a team hungry to redeem themselves it's this South Florida team. The Bulls come into this game averaging only 13.3 points per game in their last three games. They have managed to get that done on 335.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play which is a key indication that turnovers have killed this team. Those yardage marks should equal more points. You would think Memphis, who have allowed only 20.0 points per game in their last three games and who have allowed only 255.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry, have the defensive edge in this game but that's not the case. Everytime the Tigers have a faced a decent opponents away from home they have allowed a lot of points and been blown out of the water. This should be no different. On the ground, South Florida has not had much going for them lately rushing for only 122.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.6 yards per carry in those games. That probably won't improve much against a Memphis team that has allowed only 52.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and that have allowed only 2.0 yards per carry in those games. I am not concerned because a) the Tigers run defense could crumble at any point and b) the Bulls have a Senior QB who does not want to walk out of here with a loss in his last game. In the air, Grothe has not been himself this season but this is a great spot to get some redemption. He has completed 58.6% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt and although the Memphis secondary has done a decent job against mediocre passing attacks in recent games, I don't think they'll have as much success against the motivated Senior. Memphis has allowed their last three opponents to complete 56.8% of their passes in their last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. My gut feeling tells me that they are going to bring some pressure early thinking that South Florida allowed 5 sacks in their last three games and that they cannot protect Grothe. However, with the time off, the Bulls have certainly addressed some offensive line issues and if the pressure by Memphis is not effective early, Grother is going to burn these guys with some deep bombs and some play action mania. Sure he has thrown 6 interceptions in his last three games but the guy is human, he has been forcing the issue since the midway point of this season and again this is his chance for one final farewell after doing so much for this program. The risk you take, and this has always been the case for some reason, when you bet on South Florida is that penalties are going to kill some of their drives. They have taken 9.0 penalties per game in their last three games which has cost them 86.0 yards per game in those games. I do expect the time off to have changed some things and like I have said many times before, the Bulls are probably going to come out looking like that team that was supposed to contend for a National Title when the season began. Memphis does not really belong in the post-season and we are about to see what it's like for a team loaded with talen that underachieved all season to go up against a team that really doesn't belong in post-season play. Grothe in my opinion is going to have a career game in his final collegiate game and that would be appropriate for the best player this school has ever seen. Show us what you are made of kid and leave with a bang please.
This is it Matt Grothe, the floor is yours, your career here has changed the program for the better and now let's see what you can do in your final collegiate game in front of your fans, well sorta. The point here is that this is like a home game for South Florida because most of their fans don't have very far to go to reach this place and what more could you ask for from a team that is coming off a pretty disappointing season to say the least. If you are thinking about the 2004 meeting between these two teams you can forget about it right now because both programs have had ups and downs since that day and neither team resembles what they were back then. Not a single player from back then is going to play this time around (well Joseph Doss was around I think) so forget about it please. Not a factor. Some of you with nice little notebooks may have noted that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when the underdog of 10.5 points or more in a game. Yes it's true. However, this same Memphis team is only 1-4 ATS in non-conference games in their last five and this is not the kind of atmosphere they want to be playing in. South Florida on the other hand has been an ATS killer when betting on them as a favorite this season but this is Bowl Season and everything changes when you get to this point. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams from the CUSA Conference and this should be no different. The betting public is divided in this game but I would like to remind you all that South Florida is a sleeping giant that you do not want to wakeup. I want to remind you that Matt Grothe is not leaving withouth one last huge game and I want to remind you that Memphis is not even that good to be in the post-season. NUFF SAID, you know what I like.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus CUSA Conference opponents.
South Florida 49, Memphis 24
The South Florida Bulls, believe it or not, were picked by several experts (in the pre-season) to contend for National Championship again this season and to be the darkhorse team that everybody fears and wants to try and derail as a cinderella story. Well boy did that ever go wrong as not once this season did anyone even consider these upset-minded (in the past) kids for a BCS Bowl Game bid and so far are those talks that I envision this Bowl Game being one of those where there is a weak opponent picked to take a few punches at a sleeping giant. Well that giant is the Bulls and they should be jacked up for this game. Believe me when I say that they do not want to lose at home in embarassing fashion in a game that means virtually nothing to any of them...except QB Matt Grothe who has been the heart and soul of this team for years and who has led them to all the big things the past few season. You also have to consider that South Florida was embarassed in 2007 when they lost their Bowl Game by 38 points and this is a good chance to get things back on track heading into the off-season. The only reason this team is playing before Christmas is because they finished the season losing four of their last five games and losing five of their last seven. Their only wins during that time were against Connecticut and Syracuse while their losses (some of them embarassing) came at the hands of Rutgers, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville and Pittsburgh. If there is a team hungry to redeem themselves it's this South Florida team. The Bulls come into this game averaging only 13.3 points per game in their last three games. They have managed to get that done on 335.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play which is a key indication that turnovers have killed this team. Those yardage marks should equal more points. You would think Memphis, who have allowed only 20.0 points per game in their last three games and who have allowed only 255.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry, have the defensive edge in this game but that's not the case. Everytime the Tigers have a faced a decent opponents away from home they have allowed a lot of points and been blown out of the water. This should be no different. On the ground, South Florida has not had much going for them lately rushing for only 122.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.6 yards per carry in those games. That probably won't improve much against a Memphis team that has allowed only 52.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and that have allowed only 2.0 yards per carry in those games. I am not concerned because a) the Tigers run defense could crumble at any point and b) the Bulls have a Senior QB who does not want to walk out of here with a loss in his last game. In the air, Grothe has not been himself this season but this is a great spot to get some redemption. He has completed 58.6% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt and although the Memphis secondary has done a decent job against mediocre passing attacks in recent games, I don't think they'll have as much success against the motivated Senior. Memphis has allowed their last three opponents to complete 56.8% of their passes in their last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. My gut feeling tells me that they are going to bring some pressure early thinking that South Florida allowed 5 sacks in their last three games and that they cannot protect Grothe. However, with the time off, the Bulls have certainly addressed some offensive line issues and if the pressure by Memphis is not effective early, Grother is going to burn these guys with some deep bombs and some play action mania. Sure he has thrown 6 interceptions in his last three games but the guy is human, he has been forcing the issue since the midway point of this season and again this is his chance for one final farewell after doing so much for this program. The risk you take, and this has always been the case for some reason, when you bet on South Florida is that penalties are going to kill some of their drives. They have taken 9.0 penalties per game in their last three games which has cost them 86.0 yards per game in those games. I do expect the time off to have changed some things and like I have said many times before, the Bulls are probably going to come out looking like that team that was supposed to contend for a National Title when the season began. Memphis does not really belong in the post-season and we are about to see what it's like for a team loaded with talen that underachieved all season to go up against a team that really doesn't belong in post-season play. Grothe in my opinion is going to have a career game in his final collegiate game and that would be appropriate for the best player this school has ever seen. Show us what you are made of kid and leave with a bang please.
This is it Matt Grothe, the floor is yours, your career here has changed the program for the better and now let's see what you can do in your final collegiate game in front of your fans, well sorta. The point here is that this is like a home game for South Florida because most of their fans don't have very far to go to reach this place and what more could you ask for from a team that is coming off a pretty disappointing season to say the least. If you are thinking about the 2004 meeting between these two teams you can forget about it right now because both programs have had ups and downs since that day and neither team resembles what they were back then. Not a single player from back then is going to play this time around (well Joseph Doss was around I think) so forget about it please. Not a factor. Some of you with nice little notebooks may have noted that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when the underdog of 10.5 points or more in a game. Yes it's true. However, this same Memphis team is only 1-4 ATS in non-conference games in their last five and this is not the kind of atmosphere they want to be playing in. South Florida on the other hand has been an ATS killer when betting on them as a favorite this season but this is Bowl Season and everything changes when you get to this point. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams from the CUSA Conference and this should be no different. The betting public is divided in this game but I would like to remind you all that South Florida is a sleeping giant that you do not want to wakeup. I want to remind you that Matt Grothe is not leaving withouth one last huge game and I want to remind you that Memphis is not even that good to be in the post-season. NUFF SAID, you know what I like.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus CUSA Conference opponents.
South Florida 49, Memphis 24
LAS VEGAS BOWL
View attachment 6045
View attachment 6041 BYU Cougars +3 (5 Units) View attachment 6040
View attachment 6045
View attachment 6041 BYU Cougars +3 (5 Units) View attachment 6040
The BYU Cougars were another one of those teams that were supposed to be potential BCS cracking teams from smaller conferences but things never really worked out for the Cougars who should now be used to playing in this city. Oh my how things have changed in one season for the Cougars. They were -6 point favorites in last year's Las Vegas Bowl against the UCLA Bruins but won by only one point. You are telling me that they are now a full three point underdog against an Arizona team that is not much better than that UCLA team we saw last season? I mean give me a break. The Cougars play and practice in cold weather while Arizona does not. So having to practice in snow all week has definitely been a good things for the Cougars who are no strangers to the white stuff anyways. The Cougars suffered two losses on the season and neither one of them is anything to be really ashamed of. I mean they are coming off a 24 point road loss to the Utah Utes but those are the same Utes that are playing in a BCS Bowl Game in a few weeks time. Their other loss came at the hands of the TCU Horned Frogs in one of my biggest wins this season. Does anyone here remember the 59-0 blowout win over UCLA earlier this season? What is probably keeping a few people away from betting or unloading on the Cougars is the fact that they went only 3-8 ATS in their games this season but this is a brand new season and a chance to show that their 10 win season was not a fluke. The Cougars come into this game averaging 34.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by also averaging a whopping 440.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Arizona is kinda screwed against this kind of offense and I say that because they have allowed 28.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games have also allowed 352.3 total yards of offense per game and allowed 6.0 yards per play. BYU should have no problems taking advantage of this and pretty much unloading everything they have left on this defense. The Cougars come into this game averaging 148.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. That should be enough to trample the Arizona defense that has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 136.7 rushing yards per game on a huge 4.8 yards per carry which should allow BYU to willingly pass or run the ball all over this Wildcats defense. In the air, QB Max Hall is one of the most underrated QB's in the Nation having passed for 34 touchdowns, 3600+ yards and only 13 interceptions but you kinda get lost playing in the Mountain West Conference. Hall has completed 68.5% of his passes the last three games for 292.0 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. Yes he has been sacked 6 times in those games and yes he has made some bad decisions and thrown 6 interceptions but the Cougars know what kind of pressure Arizona is going to bring in this game and running the ball a lot more than they throw it could also be a great plan of attack. However, when Hall does have time to throw the ball, he is going to enjoy doing so against an Arizona defense that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes in the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those last three games. Despite being a team that can bring pressure and force QB's into making mistakes, the Arizona secondary has not done much in terms of forcing big plays in their last three games as they have come up with only one interception in those games and seem to have forgotten the way they won some of their games this season. The Wildcats have just not made the plays you need to make on defense to win big football games and that includes the fact that they have recovered only one fumble in their last three games. What really concerns me about this defense is the way they have let some of their recent opponents score at will in the early going of games. I mean they have now allowed their last three opponents to score a whopping 19.3 points per first half of those games while scoring only 9.0 points per first half of their own. BYU is not about to leave any of their tricks in the bag for this game because not only do they want to win another Las Vegas Bowl but this time win it in fashion, they are the kind of team that doesn't stop scoring if they go up by a bit and I really like the fact that they are averaging 15.7 points per first half in their last three games this season. RB Harvey Unga is a rushing machine and although I think he can have a huge game as BYU wants to keep the Arizona offense off the field, I also think WR Austin Collie is going to have a huge game and so are some of the other BYU receivers. Unlike what most people think, the Cougars are probably going to play for a low-scoring game where they can control the clock and control what Arizona does on the offensive side of things. Cougars for me.
The Arizona Wildcats probably don't really deserve to be in this game with the way they played at times this season but winning 6 or more games while playing out of the big name conferences like the PAC 10 Conference is going to get you into a Bowl Game. So here we go with coach Stoops and friends who are probably freezing their asses off as we speak here. Not only is this a night game where things tend to get a lot cooler around here but the entire week it has been cold and snowing in Las Vegas and that is not something these Wildcats are used to. That has me thinking that their mentality for this game could very simply be to show up, play some football, win or lose and get the hell on outta here. No chance in hell I can back a team like the Wildcats with the way they have played at times on the road this season. I mean do any of you remember the 8 point loss to New Mexico of all teams. Sure they beat the snot out of UCLA the next week but who the hell hasn't done that the last few seasons? How about Arizona's one point road loss to Stanford? How bad was that? Or how about their recent blowout loss against the Oregon Ducks? The bottom line is that I do not trust this team one little bit unless their are in the comforts of their own home and their own field. If you thought betting on BYU was bad because of the way they have failed to cover spreads, how about the fact that Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games to finish off the regular season? Arizona comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to also average 404.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and average 5.1 yards per play. Not quite what BYU has done but to be fair, the Wildcats have faced stiffer competition most of the season. BYU's defense has not exactly shown up for games as of late as they have allowed a whopping 28.0 points per game and allowed 372.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play in those games. On that note, I think they are going to be ready for this weather habitat and that could play a huge role in the outcome of the game. On the ground, Arizona loves to run the ball but they are not very good at it. In their last three games they have run the ball 44.3 times per game, have averaged 148.0 rushing yards per game in those games but yet have run for only 3.3 yards per carry. What a relief that is for me because I know BYU struggles against the run and yes the Cougars have allowed 183.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Willie Tuitama has been pretty damn good this season he has particularly played well recently completing 66.7% of his passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. He is going up against a BYU defense and secondary that has been beyond lost in their last three games as they have allowed their opponents to complete 68.1% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, I do fear that Tuitama is not going to react well if the weather gets a little bit cold and like the rest of this team, he could be in for some sort of shock come gametime if the Cougars decided to come after him and force him into making throws he normally does not attempt. I mean the protection has been horrendous lately as Tuitama has been sacked 7 times in the last three games and because of that pressure has thrown 3 of his 8 interceptions on the season in those games. BYU has only one sack in their last three games and they are not known for their pressure packages. However, they do know a thing or two about being aggressive and I think this is where this team is going to win the game and come up huge on third down situations. Arizona has not been all that good on third downs in recent games and BYU should force some big plays. The Cougars however are very aggressive tacklers who more often than not go for the strip instead of the tackle resulting in a risk reward type of thing. That has led them to force 5 fumbles in their last three games, 4 of which they were able to recover. With the colder weather and the unfamiliar territory for the Arizona Wildcats, forcing the ball out of their hands is something BYU is probably going try over and over again in this game and should it work, the Cougars are going to win on turnovers forced. Tuitama is a big playmaker and he does have the ability to win a game all by himself but again I don't trust him away from home, never have, never will. This is a team that cannot prove it belongs playing games outside of Tucson and until they can do that, either in this game or sometime next season, I am not going to be backing them. The Wildcats are a very big second half team which is why BYU has to throw everything they have at them early in the game and not allow the Wildcats to score the 22.0 points per second half they have scored in their last three games. Arizona is an enticing selection here but in what should be a classic, BYU will do just enough to cover the spread.
I hate being called a square and I don't like following the majority of the public in games like this but what you really have to consider is that this is Las Vegas we are talking about. The likely scenario for this game is that a lot of bettors, local and online, are going to be down some big cash after teams like Colorado State and Navy cover and steal their money. That should draw everyone chasing to one last Bowl Game for the night and by coincidence that is the Las Vegas Bowl game. The big boys in this town don't want you to be out of money by the time NFL Sunday comes rolling around so consider this a gift from Vegas. I say that because about 65% of the betting public is taking the underdog in this game and that usually spells recipe for disaster. Not in this case. Like I said this is a gift from the gambling Gods who want you to be confident heading into that big day tomorrow. Everyone expects a high scoring game in this one but for some reason I see both teams keeping things conservative with the cold and snowy weather. What is encouraging about BYU is that ever since getting blown out by Utah in their season finale, their is no doubt in my mind that this team has been itching to get back on the field and win a football game. They are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a game where they allowed 40+ points the game before. Arizona on the other hand has been horrendous against Mountain West Conference opponents going 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They have covered the spread in only 11 of their last 40 games when favored (one of the most untrustworthy teams for anyone to bet on when favored) and they have not done well in non-conference play either. The colder weather is going to really hamper this Arizona team while BYU comes into this game with vengeance on their minds and with experience in the cooler climate. I like the Mormons to make some noise here but this should be a good game.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 11-29 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite.
BYU 19, Arizona 17
That's it and that's all for today guys, I will be back in this very same thread to post my pick for the Sunday Night Bowl Game and hopefully I can make some of that cash back in the post-season. I wish you all the best and once again, I post for you to eithe fade, tail or just enjoy what I do.
:toast:
The Arizona Wildcats probably don't really deserve to be in this game with the way they played at times this season but winning 6 or more games while playing out of the big name conferences like the PAC 10 Conference is going to get you into a Bowl Game. So here we go with coach Stoops and friends who are probably freezing their asses off as we speak here. Not only is this a night game where things tend to get a lot cooler around here but the entire week it has been cold and snowing in Las Vegas and that is not something these Wildcats are used to. That has me thinking that their mentality for this game could very simply be to show up, play some football, win or lose and get the hell on outta here. No chance in hell I can back a team like the Wildcats with the way they have played at times on the road this season. I mean do any of you remember the 8 point loss to New Mexico of all teams. Sure they beat the snot out of UCLA the next week but who the hell hasn't done that the last few seasons? How about Arizona's one point road loss to Stanford? How bad was that? Or how about their recent blowout loss against the Oregon Ducks? The bottom line is that I do not trust this team one little bit unless their are in the comforts of their own home and their own field. If you thought betting on BYU was bad because of the way they have failed to cover spreads, how about the fact that Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games to finish off the regular season? Arizona comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to also average 404.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and average 5.1 yards per play. Not quite what BYU has done but to be fair, the Wildcats have faced stiffer competition most of the season. BYU's defense has not exactly shown up for games as of late as they have allowed a whopping 28.0 points per game and allowed 372.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play in those games. On that note, I think they are going to be ready for this weather habitat and that could play a huge role in the outcome of the game. On the ground, Arizona loves to run the ball but they are not very good at it. In their last three games they have run the ball 44.3 times per game, have averaged 148.0 rushing yards per game in those games but yet have run for only 3.3 yards per carry. What a relief that is for me because I know BYU struggles against the run and yes the Cougars have allowed 183.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Willie Tuitama has been pretty damn good this season he has particularly played well recently completing 66.7% of his passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. He is going up against a BYU defense and secondary that has been beyond lost in their last three games as they have allowed their opponents to complete 68.1% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, I do fear that Tuitama is not going to react well if the weather gets a little bit cold and like the rest of this team, he could be in for some sort of shock come gametime if the Cougars decided to come after him and force him into making throws he normally does not attempt. I mean the protection has been horrendous lately as Tuitama has been sacked 7 times in the last three games and because of that pressure has thrown 3 of his 8 interceptions on the season in those games. BYU has only one sack in their last three games and they are not known for their pressure packages. However, they do know a thing or two about being aggressive and I think this is where this team is going to win the game and come up huge on third down situations. Arizona has not been all that good on third downs in recent games and BYU should force some big plays. The Cougars however are very aggressive tacklers who more often than not go for the strip instead of the tackle resulting in a risk reward type of thing. That has led them to force 5 fumbles in their last three games, 4 of which they were able to recover. With the colder weather and the unfamiliar territory for the Arizona Wildcats, forcing the ball out of their hands is something BYU is probably going try over and over again in this game and should it work, the Cougars are going to win on turnovers forced. Tuitama is a big playmaker and he does have the ability to win a game all by himself but again I don't trust him away from home, never have, never will. This is a team that cannot prove it belongs playing games outside of Tucson and until they can do that, either in this game or sometime next season, I am not going to be backing them. The Wildcats are a very big second half team which is why BYU has to throw everything they have at them early in the game and not allow the Wildcats to score the 22.0 points per second half they have scored in their last three games. Arizona is an enticing selection here but in what should be a classic, BYU will do just enough to cover the spread.
I hate being called a square and I don't like following the majority of the public in games like this but what you really have to consider is that this is Las Vegas we are talking about. The likely scenario for this game is that a lot of bettors, local and online, are going to be down some big cash after teams like Colorado State and Navy cover and steal their money. That should draw everyone chasing to one last Bowl Game for the night and by coincidence that is the Las Vegas Bowl game. The big boys in this town don't want you to be out of money by the time NFL Sunday comes rolling around so consider this a gift from Vegas. I say that because about 65% of the betting public is taking the underdog in this game and that usually spells recipe for disaster. Not in this case. Like I said this is a gift from the gambling Gods who want you to be confident heading into that big day tomorrow. Everyone expects a high scoring game in this one but for some reason I see both teams keeping things conservative with the cold and snowy weather. What is encouraging about BYU is that ever since getting blown out by Utah in their season finale, their is no doubt in my mind that this team has been itching to get back on the field and win a football game. They are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a game where they allowed 40+ points the game before. Arizona on the other hand has been horrendous against Mountain West Conference opponents going 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They have covered the spread in only 11 of their last 40 games when favored (one of the most untrustworthy teams for anyone to bet on when favored) and they have not done well in non-conference play either. The colder weather is going to really hamper this Arizona team while BYU comes into this game with vengeance on their minds and with experience in the cooler climate. I like the Mormons to make some noise here but this should be a good game.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 11-29 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite.
BYU 19, Arizona 17
That's it and that's all for today guys, I will be back in this very same thread to post my pick for the Sunday Night Bowl Game and hopefully I can make some of that cash back in the post-season. I wish you all the best and once again, I post for you to eithe fade, tail or just enjoy what I do.
:toast:
Last edited:
