misleading finals,injuries,to ratio,etc...

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i'll be using this thread as a reference to look back on leading up to week 2. as we know many many times you can find value against or for teams if they were fortunate in their covers the prior week. turnover margin,total yards,defense/special teams td's,injuries all contribute to another teams previous successful. many times that team isn't as fortunate the following week and we get good line value. i'm also going to list how a team is doing turnover ratio wise. thats a big reason why teams aren't getting covers. i won't be talking a great deal. just listing the final stats. add if you want. especially team injuries.
 

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utah st. utah
13 27 1st downs
0/12 4/11 3rd down eff
342 519 total yards
121 286 passing
221 233 rushing
1 3 turnovers
24m 36m time of possession


result utah -20' did not cover 35-17

there were a few big things that occurred here. utah st. got a 96 yd td run, then in the 2nd quarter utah st held on 4th and goal at the 1(even though the defense was getting their asses handed too them all 1st half)that occurrence was very surprising. utah st. missed a 4th and 1 at utah 20. then near the end of the game qb borel fumbled in the end zone but utah st. luckily recovered resulting in only a safety.

next up...
utah @ san jose st.

utah st.@ texas am
 

sdf

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Jake..check powersweep each week. i post it in services/newsletter section. they always have a "misleading final" part that's always a good read. i think it would be helpful
 

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oregon...boise st
6...........22 1st downs
1/10.......10/20 3rd down eff
152.........361 total yards
121..........197 pass yards
31............164 rush yards
2..............3 turnovers
17:30.......42:32 top

we all know what happened in this game. looking at the box score you would expect a bigger margin of victory. boise left many points off the board and oregon had their chances to close the gap. oregon didn't even get a 1st down til the 3rd quarter.

next up...
miami(ohio) @ boise

purdue @ oregon
 

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Jake..check powersweep each week. i post it in services/newsletter section. they always have a "misleading final" part that's always a good read. i think it would be helpful
i would definitely appreciate that. i do like reading up on that and would be helpful. i'm not a subscriber this year. anyway i'm sure it would be easier but i'm just using this as a reference.
 

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s carolina.....nc state
16...............11 1st downs
5/15............5/15 3rd eff
256..............133 total yards
148..............74 passing
108..............59 rushing
1.................1 turnovers
32:25.......27:35 top

what i got from this game is nc state is better in the doggie role. also i believe gamecocks got a td from a fumble that resulted in a very short field. qb wilson could be looking at a soph slump here. way too much expectations on him after super frosh year.

next up...
south carolina @ georgia

murray st. @ nc state
 

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i also see south carolina left about 13 points off board and state had a chance but td was dropped in the endzone with about 4 mins left.
 

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Very helpful thread Jake...Thanks :103631605
sdf will offer the power sweep version which imo is 1 of the best. i'm just doing this to keep things fresh in my mind when the lines come out sunday night. hopefully i see something good. i'm just copying off espn.
 

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troy............BG
17.............21 1st downs
4/13.........4/13 3rd eff
0/3...........3/3 4th down
304...........389 total yards
263............339 pass
41...............50 rush
2..............1 turnovers
25:21.......34:39 top

looks like neither ran the ball with any success. bowling green did get the benefit of a 64 yd int return with about 2 mins left. regardless stats favor the underdog here.
 

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Just looking at the box scores you can see why I like the running dogs in these games. Every team that won or covered rushed for more yards than their opponent except Utah State. But State kept it very close in rushing, which was good enough for a DD cover.
 

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heres our 1st one...

villanova..........temple
19...................22 1st downs
357...............456 total yards
293...............317 pass
64.................139 rush
1...................5!!!!! turnovers
32m..............28m top

this was the inaugural mayor's cup. as you see temple controlled everything but they were -4 in to's. temple was up 10-0 when nova got a 59 yd fumble return td beginning of 3rd quarter. also nova got an int with about 50 seconds left in temple territory which led to the game winning fg.
 

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forgot to post upcoming games

troy @ florida

bowling green @ missouri

temple @ penn st.

lehigh @ nova
 

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north texas........ball st
27..................16 1st downs
7/15.................2/13 3rd downs
512...................309 total yards
216...................140 pass
296!!!.................169 rush
2.......................2 turnovers
37m.................23m top

nothing funky about this game. n texas dominated as 15/16 pt dogs. especially impressed with rushing total. might not mean much to some but this was a strange trip for n texas and qb's 1st road start. imo the score like boise game doesn't reflect the domination here.

next up...

ohio @ ntexas

new hampshire vs. ball st.

north texas is definitely on the radar next week especially if ohio beats uconn. i know ohio is much stronger than ball st. but we might see some favorable points here. we'll see.
 

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turnover ratio's...

minus
utah -2
oregon -1
troy -1
temple -4

plus
utah st. +2
boise +1
bowling green +1

even
north texas
ball st
s carolina
nc state
 

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gotta put this 1 in now even though i got extremely lucky with akron here as penn st. DOMINATED but didn't score in the 2nd half...

akron........penn st.
8..............25 1st downs
3/14..........8/15 1st downs
186...........515 total yards!!!!!
158...........379 pass
28............136 rush
1...............2 turnovers
25m.........35m top

total box score domination. i'm very surprised at the total rush for penn st. i would have thought pass/rush stats would have been reversed. guess joe pa wanted to get the inexperienced receivers lots of reps???

next up......

syracuse @ penn st.

i'm sure the line will still be a little high but i like penn st. next vs cuse especially if cuse holds on and beats minny. as weak as penn st. schedule is they need bigger point differential wins for bcs imo.
 

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too embarrased to post the USC game lets just say the box score reflected a 56-3 beating. should get that good line value next week vs utah.
 

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central arkansas.........hawaii
16............................17 1st downs
6/15.........................6/10 3rd down eff
270..........................415 total yards
186..........................304 pass
84..............................111 rush
1................................4 to margin

looks like the -3 in to differential kept things close. hawaii needed a last minute td just to win here. also not a big fan that the hawaii rb's only accounted for 35 of the 111 rushing(qb had 76). waiting on wash st. game to see if there's a possible play.

next up...

hawaii @ wash st.
 

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Great idea.
 

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theres 3 troubling stats from ohio st. in todays game.

#1 3/12 on 3rd downs

#2 and more important only avg 4 yds per rush. which isn't bad but considering navy always fields an undersized front and pryor is a big threat also this is a concern for me.

#3 they gave up way too many big plays including an 85 yd td pass. i'm sure usc was on there minds but they need to fix some things by next week.

although barkley is just a frosh and will be in his 1st road start in a hostile environment he does have a very good security blanket with USC offensive line which is one of the best and a boatload of top notch rb's.

i'm sure sc will be favored but i'll need to see the points 1st.
 

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