Misleading Box Scores

[NationalSportsRankings]

NCAA Box Score Analysis

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week's box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats.
The program generates an "expected" margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:

1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction)

2. Actual margin of victory

So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.
​

Key:
​

1. ATS-- Against the spread.​

2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread --How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.​

3. Game should've been.. -- A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.​

4. Win Margin—Final game margin.​

5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.​

6. Game tot—Acutal game total.​

7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.​

8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin.​

9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.​

10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense.​

11. Score should've been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.​

12. TO—Actual game turnovers.​

13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)​

Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.​

Bad—Played below expectations for the game.​

Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.​

Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.

​

Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Louisiana Tech	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	1.35	79
Western Kentucky	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-1.35	79
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Louisiana Tech	80.69	Should have lost by	1.35	580.00	39.67	2	BAD
Western Kentucky	80.69	Should have won by	1.35	590.00	41.02	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Miami	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-24.00	-3.59	64
Florida Atlantic	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	24.00	3.59	64
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Miami	64.12	Should have won by	3.59	526.00	33.86	0	FADE
Florida Atlantic	64.12	Should have lost by	3.59	389.00	30.27	5	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Utah State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	10.00	-2.38	38
Utah	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-10.00	2.38	38
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Utah State	48.23	Should have won by	2.38	373.00	25.31	3	GOOD
Utah	48.23	Should have lost by	2.38	327.00	22.93	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
South Florida	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	20.00	19.08	48
Florida State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-20.00	-19.08	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
South Florida	51.38	Should have lost by	19.08	274.00	16.15	1	GOOD
Florida State	51.38	Should have won by	19.08	441.00	35.23	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Western Michigan	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	26.00	7.63	60
Georgia Southern	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-26.00	-7.63	60
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Western Michigan	46.12	Should have lost by	7.63	252.00	19.25	4	BAD
Georgia Southern	46.12	Should have won by	7.63	420.00	26.88	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Buffalo	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	13.00	8.18	41
Penn State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-13.00	-8.18	41
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Buffalo	41.99	Should have lost by	8.18	274.00	16.90	1	GOOD
Penn State	41.99	Should have won by	8.18	328.00	25.08	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Army	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	5.00	14.71	39
Connecticut	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-5.00	-14.71	39
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Army	47.24	Should have lost by	14.71	265.00	16.26	1	FADE
Connecticut	47.24	Should have won by	14.71	415.00	30.97	1	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
East Carolina	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	7.00	8.44	55
Florida	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-7.00	-8.44	55
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
East Carolina	49.28	Should have lost by	8.44	333.00	20.42	3	GOOD
Florida	49.28	Should have won by	8.44	373.00	28.86	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Houston	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	6.18	65
Louisville	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	-6.18	65
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Houston	59.03	Should have lost by	6.18	462.00	26.43	1	GOOD
Louisville	59.03	Should have won by	6.18	395.00	32.60	4	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Fresno State	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	52.00	30.51	94
Mississippi	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-52.00	-30.51	94
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Fresno State	67.50	Should have lost by	30.51	316.00	18.49	4	PLAY
Mississippi	67.50	Should have won by	30.51	607.00	49.00	3	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Temple	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-8.00	28.47	60
Cincinnati	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	8.00	-28.47	60
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Temple	59.31	Should have lost by	28.47	296.00	15.42	1	FADE
Cincinnati	59.31	Should have won by	28.47	557.00	43.89	5	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Louisiana State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-2.00	5.11	40
Mississippi State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	2.00	-5.11	40
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Louisiana State	49.28	Should have lost by	5.11	337.00	22.08	0	BAD
Mississippi State	49.28	Should have won by	5.11	378.00	27.20	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Miami (Ohio)	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	58.00	24.58	58
Wisconsin	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-58.00	-24.58	58
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Miami (Ohio)	45.28	Should have lost by	24.58	157.00	10.35	4	PLAY
Wisconsin	45.28	Should have won by	24.58	451.00	34.93	1	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Kansas State	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-27.00	-12.67	33
Texas-San Antonio	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	27.00	12.67	33
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Kansas State	45.53	Should have won by	12.67	418.00	29.10	0	FADE
Texas-San Antonio	45.53	Should have lost by	12.67	229.00	16.43	0	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Marshall	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	11.00	7.86	31
Ohio	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-11.00	-7.86	31
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Marshall	44.59	Should have lost by	7.86	263.00	18.37	4	BAD
Ohio	44.59	Should have won by	7.86	385.00	26.23	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Hawaii	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	38.00	18.45	38
Ohio State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-38.00	-18.45	38
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Hawaii	40.81	Should have lost by	18.45	165.00	11.18	4	GOOD
Ohio State	40.81	Should have won by	18.45	372.00	29.63	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Wake Forest	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	13.00	-3.98	47
Syracuse	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-13.00	3.98	47
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Wake Forest	54.37	Should have won by	3.98	419.00	29.18	3	PLAY
Syracuse	54.37	Should have lost by	3.98	370.00	25.20	0	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Appalachian State	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	31.00	10.19	51
Clemson	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-31.00	-10.19	51
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Appalachian State	48.37	Should have lost by	10.19	298.00	19.09	4	PLAY
Clemson	48.37	Should have won by	10.19	392.00	29.28	2	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Missouri	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-7.00	-3.28	47
Arkansas State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	7.00	3.28	47
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Missouri	35.07	Should have won by	3.28	288.00	19.17	3	BAD
Arkansas State	35.07	Should have lost by	3.28	217.00	15.90	3	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Eastern Michigan	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-19.00	4.50	77
Wyoming	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	19.00	-4.50	77
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Eastern Michigan	66.76	Should have lost by	4.50	506.00	31.13	0	GOOD
Wyoming	66.76	Should have won by	4.50	462.00	35.63	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Massachusetts	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	34.00	14.69	62
Colorado	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-34.00	-14.69	62
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Massachusetts	66.65	Should have lost by	14.69	397.00	25.98	2	BAD
Colorado	66.65	Should have won by	14.69	558.00	40.67	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Minnesota	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-1.66	43
Colorado State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	1.66	43
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Minnesota	50.26	Should have won by	1.66	413.00	25.96	2	BAD
Colorado State	50.26	Should have lost by	1.66	314.00	24.30	4	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Oregon State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	28.00	25.07	42
Michigan	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-28.00	-25.07	42
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Oregon State	38.60	Should have lost by	25.07	138.00	6.76	1	BAD
Michigan	38.60	Should have won by	25.07	405.00	31.83	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Tulane	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	55.00	31.92	75
Georgia Tech	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-55.00	-31.92	75
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Tulane	60.57	Should have lost by	31.92	248.00	14.33	2	PLAY
Georgia Tech	60.57	Should have won by	31.92	571.00	46.25	1	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Georgia	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-17.00	1.65	45
Vanderbilt	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	17.00	-1.65	45
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Georgia	57.19	Should have lost by	1.65	423.00	27.77	0	BAD
Vanderbilt	57.19	Should have won by	1.65	400.00	29.42	3	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Boise State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	11.00	2.46	59
Brigham Young	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-11.00	-2.46	59
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Boise State	51.16	Should have lost by	2.46	361.00	24.35	3	BAD
Brigham Young	51.16	Should have won by	2.46	381.00	26.81	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Notre Dame	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-7.00	-1.93	61
Virginia	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	7.00	1.93	61
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Notre Dame	60.77	Should have won by	1.93	460.00	31.35	0	BAD
Virginia	60.77	Should have lost by	1.93	416.00	29.42	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Iowa	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	-9.17	48
Iowa State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	9.17	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Iowa	54.31	Should have won by	9.17	475.00	31.74	1	GOOD
Iowa State	54.31	Should have lost by	9.17	310.00	22.57	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
San Diego State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	28.00	15.40	42
California	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-28.00	-15.40	42
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
San Diego State	56.65	Should have lost by	15.40	326.00	20.63	2	BAD
California	56.65	Should have won by	15.40	485.00	36.02	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Memphis	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-32.00	-25.01	78
Kansas	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	32.00	25.01	78
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Memphis	70.77	Should have won by	25.01	651.00	47.89	3	GOOD
Kansas	70.77	Should have lost by	25.01	359.00	22.88	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Toledo	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-4.00	22.46	28
Arkansas	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	4.00	-22.46	28
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Toledo	60.36	Should have lost by	22.46	336.00	18.95	0	GOOD
Arkansas	60.36	Should have won by	22.46	515.00	41.41	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Middle Tennessee	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	27.00	26.20	47
Alabama	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-27.00	-26.20	47
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Middle Tennessee	59.40	Should have lost by	26.20	275.00	16.60	4	GOOD
Alabama	59.40	Should have won by	26.20	532.00	42.80	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
San Jose State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	21.00	13.52	53
Air Force	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-21.00	-13.52	53
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
San Jose State	51.37	Should have lost by	13.52	290.00	18.92	2	BAD
Air Force	51.37	Should have won by	13.52	452.00	32.45	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Pittsburgh	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-17.00	-10.55	31
Akron	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	17.00	10.55	31
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Pittsburgh	29.51	Should have won by	10.55	307.00	20.03	0	FADE
Akron	29.51	Should have lost by	10.55	110.00	9.48	1	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Bowling Green	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-21.00	-14.66	75
Maryland	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	21.00	14.66	75
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Bowling Green	70.60	Should have won by	14.66	692.00	42.63	1	GOOD
Maryland	70.60	Should have lost by	14.66	341.00	27.97	4	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Arizona	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-24.00	-16.22	64
Nevada	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	24.00	16.22	64
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Arizona	62.62	Should have won by	16.22	570.00	39.42	1	GOOD
Nevada	62.62	Should have lost by	16.22	327.00	23.20	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Kentucky	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-4.00	5.87	48
South Carolina	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	4.00	-5.87	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Kentucky	56.36	Should have lost by	5.87	399.00	25.24	1	GOOD
South Carolina	56.36	Should have won by	5.87	417.00	31.12	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
North Texas	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	18.00	16.75	44
Southern Methodist	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-18.00	-16.75	44
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
North Texas	47.55	Should have lost by	16.75	240.00	15.40	4	BAD
Southern Methodist	47.55	Should have won by	16.75	444.00	32.15	3	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Ball State	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	33.00	20.73	79
Texas A&M	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-33.00	-20.73	79
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Ball State	61.86	Should have lost by	20.73	361.00	20.57	1	PLAY
Texas A&M	61.86	Should have won by	20.73	503.00	41.29	1	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Texas El Paso	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	49.00	24.47	89
Texas Tech	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-49.00	-24.47	89
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Texas El Paso	77.11	Should have lost by	24.47	414.00	26.32	2	BAD
Texas Tech	77.11	Should have won by	24.47	674.00	50.79	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Washington State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	-1.82	71
Rutgers	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	1.82	71
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Washington State	66.06	Should have won by	1.82	559.00	33.94	0	GOOD
Rutgers	66.06	Should have lost by	1.82	402.00	32.12	3	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Oklahoma	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-7.00	-5.41	55
Tennessee	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	7.00	5.41	55
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Oklahoma	41.59	Should have won by	5.41	348.00	23.50	2	GOOD
Tennessee	41.59	Should have lost by	5.41	254.00	18.09	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Rice	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	14.00	-12.74	70
Texas	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-14.00	12.74	70
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Rice	50.38	Should have won by	12.74	462.00	31.56	5	GOOD
Texas	50.38	Should have lost by	12.74	277.00	18.82	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Georgia State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-2.00	-2.23	66
New Mexico State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	2.00	2.23	66
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Georgia State	76.58	Should have won by	2.23	582.00	39.40	3	GOOD
New Mexico State	76.58	Should have lost by	2.23	529.00	37.17	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
South Alabama	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	39.00	22.96	57
Nebraska	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-39.00	-22.96	57
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
South Alabama	64.15	Should have lost by	22.96	332.00	20.60	3	PLAY
Nebraska	64.15	Should have won by	22.96	561.00	43.56	1	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Oregon	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	-0.41	59
Michigan State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	0.41	59
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Oregon	56.59	Should have won by	0.41	432.00	28.50	2	GOOD
Michigan State	56.59	Should have lost by	0.41	389.00	28.09	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Florida International	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	4.33	58
Indiana	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	-4.33	58
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Florida International	58.43	Should have lost by	4.33	406.00	27.05	3	PLAY
Indiana	58.43	Should have won by	4.33	439.00	31.38	1	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Idaho	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	50.00	47.19	68
Southern California	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-50.00	-47.19	68
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Idaho	80.41	Should have lost by	47.19	311.00	16.61	0	BAD
Southern California	80.41	Should have won by	47.19	737.00	63.80	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Tulsa	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-19.00	-8.16	61
New Mexico	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	19.00	8.16	61
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Tulsa	67.94	Should have won by	8.16	600.00	38.05	1	GOOD
New Mexico	67.94	Should have lost by	8.16	390.00	29.89	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Central Florida	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	24.00	25.39	38
Stanford	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-24.00	-25.39	38
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Central Florida	48.45	Should have lost by	25.39	181.00	11.53	2	BAD
Stanford	48.45	Should have won by	25.39	491.00	36.92	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
UCLA	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-34.00	-26.01	40
UNLV	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	34.00	26.01	40
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
UCLA	56.32	Should have won by	26.01	526.00	41.16	3	FADE
UNLV	56.32	Should have lost by	26.01	237.00	15.16	2	PLAY

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

9/17

112 Massachusetts +10.5

 

[sendacash]

NSR, What kind of home field advantage do you give Umass at Gillette stadium? Do they fill it up at all, I notice about half their home games are played there and the other half at some high school stadium.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

NSR, What kind of home field advantage do you give Umass at Gillette stadium? Do they fill it up at all, I notice about half their home games are played there and the other half at some high school stadium.

A couple points at least. Temple still has to go on the road off of 2 emotional games. (Penn St and Cincy). I like the spot for UMASS here. I have the number around 8. I bet it early in the week at +13 and it's steadily dropped to where it is now.

One of many plays I'll have this week. Just 1 I used in a contest and chose to share. Good luck this week.

 

[sendacash]

What do you thin about this line movement? Umass was down all the way to 10.5 earlier today, but then someone just hammered Temple up to 13.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

Looks like a couple injuries popped up for today. That could be part of the reason.

http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/

Opened around +13 as that's what I bet Monday morning. It's still a play for me and was at +10 or more.

 

[Bad_Cat]

On Temple myself. I have the line at -22 so I see opposite the value that you do. Just thought I would share. GL to you.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

Record update

1-0 (+1.0)

Will post some stuff later in the week.

 

[BigDon]

NSR. Thanks for the posting this thread. I had capped UCONN to cover the big# and your system had them as a play so I felt pretty good before kickoff and they almost won straight up! Here's to ya and keep this thread going. Very helpful!:toast:

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

NSR. Thanks for the posting this thread. I had capped UCONN to cover the big# and your system had them as a play so I felt pretty good before kickoff and they almost won straight up! Here's to ya and keep this thread going. Very helpful!:toast:

Thanks. Glad it helped. I'll post some stuff later in the week (Thursday or Friday).

That's how I use the information. I'll cap the game and then factor in the previous box score information. If a certain team agrees with my capping, my power ranking and the box score analysis I'll usually have a play on it. If they don't agree I'll usually pass on the game or dig further.

I'll never just play a game because my program says "play/fade" or because a number I put on the game is different than the line. I try to use both in the process. As sometimes injuries/suspensions, a certain scheduling factor, etc...can't be accounted for in the numbers.

The info does help me look into games that I may normally have passed on. Good luck this week.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

Week 3 Box Scores

NCAA Box Score Analysis

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week's box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats.
The program generates an "expected" margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:

1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction)

2. Actual margin of victory

So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.
​

Key:
​

1. ATS-- Against the spread.​

2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread --How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.​

3. Game should've been.. -- A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.​

4. Win Margin—Final game margin.​

5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.​

6. Game tot—Acutal game total.​

7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.​

8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin.​

9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.​

10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense.​

11. Score should've been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.​

12. TO—Actual game turnovers.​

13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)​

Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.​

Bad—Played below expectations for the game.​

Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.​

Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.

​

Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Clemson	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-6.86	37
Louisville	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	6.86	37
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Clemson	46.62	Should have won by	6.86	401.00	26.74	2	PLAY
Louisville	46.62	Should have lost by	6.86	272.00	19.88	2	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Florida State	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	3.36	14
Boston College	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	-3.36	14
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Florida State	28.52	Should have lost by	3.36	217.00	12.58	0	FADE
Boston College	28.52	Should have won by	3.36	195.00	15.94	2	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
New Mexico	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	24.00	19.10	44
Arizona State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-24.00	-19.10	44
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
New Mexico	52.98	Should have lost by	19.10	295.00	16.94	1	GOOD
Arizona State	52.98	Should have won by	19.10	449.00	36.04	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Wake Forest	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-9.82	31
Army	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	9.82	31
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Wake Forest	40.62	Should have won by	9.82	346.00	25.22	3	PLAY
Army	40.62	Should have lost by	9.82	240.00	15.40	0	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Temple	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-2.00	-3.35	48
Massachusetts	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	2.00	3.35	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Temple	62.06	Should have won by	3.35	458.00	32.71	3	BAD
Massachusetts	62.06	Should have lost by	3.35	438.00	29.36	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
UNLV	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	21.00	17.25	35
Michigan	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-21.00	-17.25	35
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
UNLV	44.33	Should have lost by	17.25	235.00	13.54	2	GOOD
Michigan	44.33	Should have won by	17.25	377.00	30.79	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Ball State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-11.00	-7.07	45
Eastern Michigan	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	11.00	7.07	45
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Ball State	54.77	Should have won by	7.07	472.00	30.92	1	GOOD
Eastern Michigan	54.77	Should have lost by	7.07	319.00	23.85	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Charlotte	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	59.00	33.52	87
Middle Tennessee	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-59.00	-33.52	87
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Charlotte	66.02	Should have lost by	33.52	219.00	16.25	7	BAD
Middle Tennessee	66.02	Should have won by	33.52	695.00	49.77	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Kent State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	20.64	17
Minnesota	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-20.64	17
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Kent State	30.96	Should have lost by	20.64	142.00	5.16	0	GOOD
Minnesota	30.96	Should have won by	20.64	288.00	25.80	3	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Buffalo	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-18.00	23.35	48
Florida Atlantic	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	18.00	-23.35	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Buffalo	53.94	Should have lost by	23.35	290.00	15.30	1	FADE
Florida Atlantic	53.94	Should have won by	23.35	490.00	38.65	5	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Troy	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	25.00	17.22	31
Wisconsin	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-25.00	-17.22	31
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Troy	47.13	Should have lost by	17.22	255.00	14.95	1	GOOD
Wisconsin	47.13	Should have won by	17.22	401.00	32.18	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Illinois	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	34.00	9.71	62
North Carolina	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-34.00	-9.71	62
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Illinois	60.19	Should have lost by	9.71	399.00	25.24	1	BAD
North Carolina	60.19	Should have won by	9.71	471.00	34.95	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Northern Illinois	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	7.00	20.01	33
Ohio State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-7.00	-20.01	33
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Northern Illinois	35.44	Should have lost by	20.01	190.00	7.72	2	GOOD
Ohio State	35.44	Should have won by	20.01	298.00	27.72	5	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
North Carolina State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-24.00	-19.82	52
Old Dominion	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	24.00	19.82	52
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
North Carolina State	41.86	Should have won by	19.82	435.00	30.84	0	GOOD
Old Dominion	41.86	Should have lost by	19.82	148.00	11.02	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Tulsa	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	31.15	90
Oklahoma	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	-31.15	90
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Tulsa	98.33	Should have lost by	31.15	603.00	33.59	0	GOOD
Oklahoma	98.33	Should have won by	31.15	773.00	64.74	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Central Michigan	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	-9.96	57
Syracuse	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	9.96	57
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Central Michigan	57.97	Should have won by	9.96	520.00	33.96	2	GOOD
Syracuse	57.97	Should have lost by	9.96	326.00	24.00	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Northwestern	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-9.00	9.05	29
Duke	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	9.00	-9.05	29
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Northwestern	41.32	Should have lost by	9.05	271.00	16.14	2	FADE
Duke	41.32	Should have won by	9.05	327.00	25.18	3	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Nevada	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	17.00	25.02	71
Texas A&M	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-17.00	-25.02	71
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Nevada	64.33	Should have lost by	25.02	359.00	19.65	1	GOOD
Texas A&M	64.33	Should have won by	25.02	535.00	44.68	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Georgia State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	33.00	18.33	89
Oregon	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-33.00	-18.33	89
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Georgia State	70.38	Should have lost by	18.33	431.00	26.03	4	GOOD
Oregon	70.38	Should have won by	18.33	539.00	44.35	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Rice	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	-0.38	62
North Texas	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	0.38	62
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Rice	71.95	Should have won by	0.38	562.00	36.16	0	FADE
North Texas	71.95	Should have lost by	0.38	478.00	35.79	3	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Louisiana Tech	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	6.00	-2.83	72
Kansas State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-6.00	2.83	72
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Louisiana Tech	55.41	Should have won by	2.83	451.00	29.12	2	GOOD
Kansas State	55.41	Should have lost by	2.83	355.00	26.29	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
South Carolina	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	32.00	28.60	72
Georgia	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-32.00	-28.60	72
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
South Carolina	59.11	Should have lost by	28.60	258.00	15.25	1	BAD
Georgia	59.11	Should have won by	28.60	576.00	43.85	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
East Carolina	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	24.00	4.62	66
Navy	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-24.00	-4.62	66
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
East Carolina	59.47	Should have lost by	4.62	405.00	27.42	2	BAD
Navy	59.47	Should have won by	4.62	456.00	32.04	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Auburn	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	24.00	17.02	66
Louisiana State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-24.00	-17.02	66
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Auburn	51.87	Should have lost by	17.02	260.00	17.43	2	BAD
Louisiana State	51.87	Should have won by	17.02	485.00	34.45	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Mississippi	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-6.00	17.47	80
Alabama	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	6.00	-17.47	80
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Mississippi	64.78	Should have lost by	17.47	433.00	23.66	0	FADE
Alabama	64.78	Should have won by	17.47	503.00	41.13	5	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Virginia Tech	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-27.00	-9.37	75
Purdue	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	27.00	9.37	75
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Virginia Tech	51.11	Should have won by	9.37	471.00	30.24	1	GOOD
Purdue	51.11	Should have lost by	9.37	265.00	20.87	3	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Texas-San Antonio	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	55.00	19.20	83
Oklahoma State	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-55.00	-19.20	83
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Texas-San Antonio	62.37	Should have lost by	19.20	346.00	21.58	2	PLAY
Oklahoma State	62.37	Should have won by	19.20	529.00	40.79	0	FADE
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Nebraska	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	4.35	69
Miami	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	-4.35	69
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Nebraska	67.17	Should have lost by	4.35	462.00	31.41	3	FADE
Miami	67.17	Should have won by	4.35	511.00	35.76	1	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Georgia Tech	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	8.00	13.28	52
Notre Dame	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-8.00	-13.28	52
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Georgia Tech	55.07	Should have lost by	13.28	337.00	20.90	1	BAD
Notre Dame	55.07	Should have won by	13.28	461.00	34.18	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Utah State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	14.00	18.87	48
Washington	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-14.00	-18.87	48
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Utah State	48.42	Should have lost by	18.87	254.00	14.77	2	BAD
Washington	48.42	Should have won by	18.87	442.00	33.64	3	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Southern Mississippi	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-6.00	0.50	106
Texas State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	6.00	-0.50	106
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Southern Mississippi	83.03	Should have lost by	0.50	613.00	41.27	1	GOOD
Texas State	83.03	Should have won by	0.50	591.00	41.76	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Cincinnati	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-4.00	-14.24	70
Miami (Ohio)	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	4.00	14.24	70
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Cincinnati	69.59	Should have won by	14.24	545.00	41.91	4	BAD
Miami (Ohio)	69.59	Should have lost by	14.24	448.00	27.68	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Iowa State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	7.00	-7.18	53
Toledo	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-7.00	7.18	53
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Iowa State	54.17	Should have won by	7.18	481.00	30.67	1	GOOD
Toledo	54.17	Should have lost by	7.18	309.00	23.49	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Texas Tech	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-11.00	1.32	59
Arkansas	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	11.00	-1.32	59
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Texas Tech	62.69	Should have lost by	1.32	486.00	30.69	2	GOOD
Arkansas	62.69	Should have won by	1.32	424.00	32.00	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Memphis	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	4.50	85
Bowling Green	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	-4.50	85
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Memphis	77.22	Should have lost by	4.50	541.00	36.36	0	BAD
Bowling Green	77.22	Should have won by	4.50	579.00	40.86	0	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Colorado	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	15.85	51
Colorado State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	-15.85	51
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Colorado	58.13	Should have lost by	15.85	345.00	21.14	0	BAD
Colorado State	58.13	Should have won by	15.85	500.00	36.99	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
South Florida	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	18.00	13.38	52
Maryland	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-18.00	-13.38	52
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
South Florida	49.25	Should have lost by	13.38	300.00	17.94	2	BAD
Maryland	49.25	Should have won by	13.38	411.00	31.32	3	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Connecticut	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	8.61	15
Missouri	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-8.61	15
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Connecticut	35.18	Should have lost by	8.61	233.00	13.28	2	GOOD
Missouri	35.18	Should have won by	8.61	270.00	21.89	2	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Florida	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-5.00	0.94	23
Kentucky	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	5.00	-0.94	23
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Florida	36.33	Should have lost by	0.94	285.00	17.69	1	FADE
Kentucky	36.33	Should have won by	0.94	241.00	18.63	2	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Western Kentucky	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	3.00	7.26	73
Indiana	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-3.00	-7.26	73
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Western Kentucky	83.30	Should have lost by	7.26	568.00	38.02	2	BAD
Indiana	83.30	Should have won by	7.26	639.00	45.28	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
California	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-1.00	8.33	89
Texas	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	1.00	-8.33	89
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
California	82.51	Should have lost by	8.33	548.00	37.09	2	BAD
Texas	82.51	Should have won by	8.33	650.00	45.42	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
San Jose State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	14.00	17.31	56
Oregon State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-14.00	-17.31	56
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
San Jose State	48.76	Should have lost by	17.31	257.00	15.73	2	BAD
Oregon State	48.76	Should have won by	17.31	444.00	33.03	2	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Southern Methodist	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	19.00	32.75	93
Texas Christian	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-19.00	-32.75	93
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Southern Methodist	89.01	Should have lost by	32.75	508.00	28.13	0	GOOD
Texas Christian	89.01	Should have won by	32.75	720.00	60.88	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Texas El Paso	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	1.34	97
New Mexico State	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	-1.34	97
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Texas El Paso	75.38	Should have lost by	1.34	542.00	37.02	2	FADE
New Mexico State	75.38	Should have won by	1.34	551.00	38.36	1	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Rutgers	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	25.00	14.79	31
Penn State	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	-25.00	-14.79	31
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Rutgers	53.97	Should have lost by	14.79	294.00	19.59	3	BAD
Penn State	53.97	Should have won by	14.79	481.00	34.38	1	GOOD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
South Alabama	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-7.00	-5.69	61
San Diego State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	7.00	5.69	61
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
South Alabama	55.54	Should have won by	5.69	511.00	30.61	0	GOOD
San Diego State	55.54	Should have lost by	5.69	305.00	24.93	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Stanford	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-10.00	2.20	72
Southern California	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	10.00	-2.20	72
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Stanford	62.11	Should have lost by	2.20	474.00	29.95	0	GOOD
Southern California	62.11	Should have won by	2.20	427.00	32.15	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Pittsburgh	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	3.00	7.82	51
Iowa	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	-3.00	-7.82	51
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Pittsburgh	44.59	Should have lost by	7.82	282.00	18.38	2	FADE
Iowa	44.59	Should have won by	7.82	363.00	26.21	1	PLAY
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Air Force	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	14.00	-3.43	56
Michigan State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-14.00	3.43	56
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Air Force	51.67	Should have won by	3.43	428.00	27.55	3	GOOD
Michigan State	51.67	Should have lost by	3.43	324.00	24.12	0	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Wyoming	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	17.00	5.24	45
Washington State	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-17.00	-5.24	45
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Wyoming	54.68	Should have lost by	5.24	409.00	24.72	2	GOOD
Washington State	54.68	Should have won by	5.24	378.00	29.96	1	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Brigham Young	Won ATS	Better than predicted	Higher Scoring	1.00	9.49	47
UCLA	Lost ATS	Worse than predicted	Higher Scoring	-1.00	-9.49	47
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Brigham Young	55.89	Should have lost by	9.49	405.00	23.20	1	GOOD
UCLA	55.89	Should have won by	9.49	402.00	32.69	3	BAD
Team	ATS	Act. yds vs act. spread	Game should've been..	Win Margin	Yds/TO spread conv.	Game tot
Utah	Won ATS	Worse than predicted	Lower Scoring	-21.00	-1.88	69
Fresno State	Lost ATS	Better than predicted	Lower Scoring	21.00	1.88	69
	Yppt. Total	W/L Projection	Margin	Actual Yds	Score should've been..	TO	Next Week
Utah	51.53	Should have won by	1.88	380.00	26.71	3	FADE
Fresno State	51.53	Should have lost by	1.88	365.00	24.83	2	PLAY

 

[BigDon]

looks we got a match on Wake F. and Nevada@)

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

looks we got a match on Wake F. and Nevada@)

Yes, but I haven't pulled the trigger on either yet. The Wake QB is out and I'm lacking line value for each.

My numbers for those games

Nevada

29.52

Buffalo

31.25

60.77

1.74

-1.74

09/26/2015

(Home)

Indiana

31.29

Wake Forest

28.04

59.33

-3.25

3.25

09/26/2015

(Home)

Waiting for some better numbers on a couple other dogs.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

1 big favorite I played this week

316 Michigan St -26

 

[mudman]

Nice spread sheet. BOL

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

Nice spread sheet. BOL

Good luck this week!

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

is says on ur sheet that Mich st was "BAD" I'm curious why is it a play?

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

is says on ur sheet that Mich st was "BAD" I'm curious why is it a play?

I mentioned above that the box score analysis is only part of my process for a pick. In the case with Michigan St my power ranking made the play. It was one of the higher differences from the actual spread. I have MSU -33.

In some cases it trumps the box score.

Ideally it's best to find games that show both positive box scores and power ranking. It just doesn't always happen perfect like that. I felt the value of MSU was too good to pass on. I've been averaging about 10-15 plays a week. It's just one of a few I played this week.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

Some yardage projections for this week. Not sure how the format will view.

EDIT: table didn't post both team stats so I deleted it.

 

[NationalSportsRankings]

add

312 Eastern Michigan

+2