Hey guys, I'm new to the forum. I've been picking the Big Ten Games since conference play started. Being doing okay at 65% but I think I can do better. I watch the Big Ten pretty much exclusively. I like the slate of games this week, take my picks for what they're worth. Please feel free to comment.
Purdue @ Northwestern (-4) (BEST BET)
This is a very big game for Northwestern. It is homecoming for the Wildcats with their loss last week against MSU and big games against Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois still looming they need this game to keep their hopes of a big bowl game alive. The Wildcats appeared to be not quite ready for the big stage last week against Michigan State. They made a ton of mistakes early which led to a 17-0 first quarter deficit. Once they settled in they managed to play the Spartans evenly for the final three quarters. The defense did not play as poorly as the final score might indicate because the Spartan offense was constantly given a short field to work with by the Wildcat offensive and special teams units. However, they failed to force any turnovers after coming up with 5 the game before @ Iowa.
The Wildcats will gain from this experience and show up ready to play against Purdue on Saturday. C.J Bacher has looked better since conference play has started. He will still drive you crazy with the turnovers, but his decision making has improved and he’s thrown a better ball the last three weeks. Another thing that bodes well for the Wildcats is that they are back in the 11 AM time slot that they seem to feel more comfortable in.
Things are looking bleak for Purdue these days. They have managed only 9 points in their last two games (granted, they were against Penn State and Ohio State respectively.) Curtis Painter has looked lost lately. The loss of Dorian Bryant has really seemed to hurt him. Painter’s confidence seems to be at an all-time low and many in West Lafayette are calling for Joey Elliot to replace him at Quarterback.
Kory Sheets has been the lone bright spot for the Boilermaker offense. The Wildcats did a serviceable stopping Javon Ringer last week. He still got his yards, but Northwestern did keep his yards per carry down to a respectable 3.5. If they can do more of the same thing week against Sheets and force Curtis Painter and the Boilermaker passing attack to beat them I like they’re chances.
Take the Wildcats to cover on homecoming!
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Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3.5) (BEST BET)
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: Wisconsin is the biggest disappointment in the conference this year. Their loss to Michigan three weeks ago looks even worse now after seeing the back-to-back abysmal performances the Wolverines have put forth at home against Illinois and lowly Toledo. The Badgers have followed up that disgrace with back-to-back losses in Camp Randal to Ohio State and Penn State. In my opinion the Ohio State game was the back breaker for the Badgers. They led the game in the fourth quarter at home and let a freshman quarterback engineer a 4<SUP>th</SUP> Game Winning TD drive on them. That sucked all of the life out of this team. It showed last week as Penn State had their way with them on their own field.
Iowa, on the other hand, appears to be on the up and up. Despite a 1-2 record in the conference, they could easily be 3-0 if they would have taken care of the ball in their first two games. They turned the ball over 5 times against Northwestern in a 22-17 loss and then followed that up with a 3 turnover effort in a 16-13 loss to Michigan State. They finally took care of the ball last week against Indiana and drummed them 45-9. If they take care of the ball this week they should have no problem winning at home against the Badgers.
The strength of the Badgers is, and probably always will be, their running game. With P.J Hill, Zach Brown, and John Clay they have plenty of firepower in the running game. However, unfortunately for them, the Hawkeye front four is the toughest to run against in the Big Ten conference. The Hoosier running game was non-existent last week and the week before the Hawkeyes did the best job to date against Heisman Candidate Javon Ringer, keeping him under the century mark for rushing yards. The Hawkeyes will do more of the same this week against the Badgers and force Allan Evridge to beat them. Quite frankly, this isn’t going to happen. Evridge has been shaky at best thus far this season, and although he has two very solid tight ends in Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham, he doesn’t have a viable WR option.
Take the Hawkeyes to cover here.
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Ohio State @ Michigan State (+3.5)
I think that Ohio State is a little bit over rated this year. They have underperformed in wins @ Wisconsin and vs. Purdue the last two weeks. Terrelle Pryor has struggled lately. He looked very impressive against Troy and Minnesota but has since struggled against Wisconsin and Purdue. Teams throughout the country have realized that he isn’t really a “dual-threat” quarterback quite yet. If they can keep him from running wild on them and force him to beat them through the air he is not nearly as effective.
This game also screams of a trap game for Ohio State. People have already begun talking about the Penn State game next week being for the Big Ten Championship. Michigan State is far too good of a team to be taken lightly. If the Buckeyes sleep at all on the Spartans the Spartans will take advantage of it.
Michigan State is 3-0 in the conference and currently riding a six game winning streak. They are coming off a very impressive 17-point win on the road against a Northwestern team that was ranked #22 in the coaches poll at the time. Brian Hoyer has played a lot better the last couple of weeks. Defenses are now realizing that they have to do more than stop Javon Ringer to stop the Spartan offense. Mark Dell has big play potential and Tight End Charlie Gantt is a red zone threat.
Take the Spartans and the points this week.
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Michigan @ Penn State (-24) (BEST BET)
There’s no way I can, in all good conscience, take the Wolverines here. I took them last week to cover the 17-point spread against Toledo and then sat and watched that game incredibly embarrassed all game long. Let’s say it’s a rebuilding year for the Wolverines and move on. They have a new coach, a new system, and young players all over the field. Sam McGuffie has been impressive but he has very little help offensively. The Wolverines figure to get Martavious Odoms back this week to play alongside Greg Matthews. This will help them, but it won’t be enough.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are absolutely stacked this year. They are too many weapons offensively: Darryl Clark, Evan Royster, Stephon Green, Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler. Hell, their backup quarterback Pat Devlin would be the starter hands down on Michigan. They just put a beat down on Wisconsin in Madison that nobody is supposed to put on Wisconsin in Madison.
With Oklahoma, Missouri, and LSU all losing last week people are finally starting to mention Penn State in the National Championship talk. They want to prove that they are for real and deserve to be included in those talks. They will do just that this Saturday, in front of an ABC audience by destroying Michigan. Ignore the large spread and take Penn State to cover.
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Indiana @ Illinois (-16.5)
I said last week that Indiana was the worst team in the conference. Their 45-9 loss to Iowa did nothing to prove me wrong (however, Michigan now may have something to say about that worst team in the conference thing.) Indiana appears to be regressing. After starting the non-conference season off on the right foot they have now lost four games in a row. They played Michigan State tough for much for the game, put then followed that up with losses to Minnesota and Michigan State. They were able to muster one large TD pass to Marcus Thigpen against Minnesota. Aside from that big play the offense has been pretty much non-existent these last two weeks. Kellen Lewis play has taken a big step backwards without James Hardy this year.
Illinois is coming off a very disappointing loss on homecoming against Minnesota. Minnesota is too good a team to be taken lightly and that is exactly what Illinois did. This game has special meaning to Tim Brewster, the former Illini Tight End, and that was apparent by the way he coached his team. Ron Zook will not let Illinois let down again this week at home. The Illini will come out with a purpose. Juice Williams appears to be hitting his stride after setting a big house record for total offense two weeks ago he followed that up with a good effort last week, although he got very little help from his teammates with the exception of Arrelious Benn.
Illinois is still one of the most talented team in the conference, unfortunately for them, they are far from the most focused. I’m betting on them to regain their focus this week. If they play the way they are capable of they should have no problem covering the spread this week. Take the Illini to cover and hope they feel like playing this week!
Purdue @ Northwestern (-4) (BEST BET)
This is a very big game for Northwestern. It is homecoming for the Wildcats with their loss last week against MSU and big games against Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois still looming they need this game to keep their hopes of a big bowl game alive. The Wildcats appeared to be not quite ready for the big stage last week against Michigan State. They made a ton of mistakes early which led to a 17-0 first quarter deficit. Once they settled in they managed to play the Spartans evenly for the final three quarters. The defense did not play as poorly as the final score might indicate because the Spartan offense was constantly given a short field to work with by the Wildcat offensive and special teams units. However, they failed to force any turnovers after coming up with 5 the game before @ Iowa.
The Wildcats will gain from this experience and show up ready to play against Purdue on Saturday. C.J Bacher has looked better since conference play has started. He will still drive you crazy with the turnovers, but his decision making has improved and he’s thrown a better ball the last three weeks. Another thing that bodes well for the Wildcats is that they are back in the 11 AM time slot that they seem to feel more comfortable in.
Things are looking bleak for Purdue these days. They have managed only 9 points in their last two games (granted, they were against Penn State and Ohio State respectively.) Curtis Painter has looked lost lately. The loss of Dorian Bryant has really seemed to hurt him. Painter’s confidence seems to be at an all-time low and many in West Lafayette are calling for Joey Elliot to replace him at Quarterback.
Kory Sheets has been the lone bright spot for the Boilermaker offense. The Wildcats did a serviceable stopping Javon Ringer last week. He still got his yards, but Northwestern did keep his yards per carry down to a respectable 3.5. If they can do more of the same thing week against Sheets and force Curtis Painter and the Boilermaker passing attack to beat them I like they’re chances.
Take the Wildcats to cover on homecoming!
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fficeffice" /><o></o>Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3.5) (BEST BET)
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: Wisconsin is the biggest disappointment in the conference this year. Their loss to Michigan three weeks ago looks even worse now after seeing the back-to-back abysmal performances the Wolverines have put forth at home against Illinois and lowly Toledo. The Badgers have followed up that disgrace with back-to-back losses in Camp Randal to Ohio State and Penn State. In my opinion the Ohio State game was the back breaker for the Badgers. They led the game in the fourth quarter at home and let a freshman quarterback engineer a 4<SUP>th</SUP> Game Winning TD drive on them. That sucked all of the life out of this team. It showed last week as Penn State had their way with them on their own field.
Iowa, on the other hand, appears to be on the up and up. Despite a 1-2 record in the conference, they could easily be 3-0 if they would have taken care of the ball in their first two games. They turned the ball over 5 times against Northwestern in a 22-17 loss and then followed that up with a 3 turnover effort in a 16-13 loss to Michigan State. They finally took care of the ball last week against Indiana and drummed them 45-9. If they take care of the ball this week they should have no problem winning at home against the Badgers.
The strength of the Badgers is, and probably always will be, their running game. With P.J Hill, Zach Brown, and John Clay they have plenty of firepower in the running game. However, unfortunately for them, the Hawkeye front four is the toughest to run against in the Big Ten conference. The Hoosier running game was non-existent last week and the week before the Hawkeyes did the best job to date against Heisman Candidate Javon Ringer, keeping him under the century mark for rushing yards. The Hawkeyes will do more of the same this week against the Badgers and force Allan Evridge to beat them. Quite frankly, this isn’t going to happen. Evridge has been shaky at best thus far this season, and although he has two very solid tight ends in Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham, he doesn’t have a viable WR option.
Take the Hawkeyes to cover here.
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></o>Ohio State @ Michigan State (+3.5)
I think that Ohio State is a little bit over rated this year. They have underperformed in wins @ Wisconsin and vs. Purdue the last two weeks. Terrelle Pryor has struggled lately. He looked very impressive against Troy and Minnesota but has since struggled against Wisconsin and Purdue. Teams throughout the country have realized that he isn’t really a “dual-threat” quarterback quite yet. If they can keep him from running wild on them and force him to beat them through the air he is not nearly as effective.
This game also screams of a trap game for Ohio State. People have already begun talking about the Penn State game next week being for the Big Ten Championship. Michigan State is far too good of a team to be taken lightly. If the Buckeyes sleep at all on the Spartans the Spartans will take advantage of it.
Michigan State is 3-0 in the conference and currently riding a six game winning streak. They are coming off a very impressive 17-point win on the road against a Northwestern team that was ranked #22 in the coaches poll at the time. Brian Hoyer has played a lot better the last couple of weeks. Defenses are now realizing that they have to do more than stop Javon Ringer to stop the Spartan offense. Mark Dell has big play potential and Tight End Charlie Gantt is a red zone threat.
Take the Spartans and the points this week.
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></o>Michigan @ Penn State (-24) (BEST BET)
There’s no way I can, in all good conscience, take the Wolverines here. I took them last week to cover the 17-point spread against Toledo and then sat and watched that game incredibly embarrassed all game long. Let’s say it’s a rebuilding year for the Wolverines and move on. They have a new coach, a new system, and young players all over the field. Sam McGuffie has been impressive but he has very little help offensively. The Wolverines figure to get Martavious Odoms back this week to play alongside Greg Matthews. This will help them, but it won’t be enough.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are absolutely stacked this year. They are too many weapons offensively: Darryl Clark, Evan Royster, Stephon Green, Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler. Hell, their backup quarterback Pat Devlin would be the starter hands down on Michigan. They just put a beat down on Wisconsin in Madison that nobody is supposed to put on Wisconsin in Madison.
With Oklahoma, Missouri, and LSU all losing last week people are finally starting to mention Penn State in the National Championship talk. They want to prove that they are for real and deserve to be included in those talks. They will do just that this Saturday, in front of an ABC audience by destroying Michigan. Ignore the large spread and take Penn State to cover.
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></o>Indiana @ Illinois (-16.5)
I said last week that Indiana was the worst team in the conference. Their 45-9 loss to Iowa did nothing to prove me wrong (however, Michigan now may have something to say about that worst team in the conference thing.) Indiana appears to be regressing. After starting the non-conference season off on the right foot they have now lost four games in a row. They played Michigan State tough for much for the game, put then followed that up with losses to Minnesota and Michigan State. They were able to muster one large TD pass to Marcus Thigpen against Minnesota. Aside from that big play the offense has been pretty much non-existent these last two weeks. Kellen Lewis play has taken a big step backwards without James Hardy this year.
Illinois is coming off a very disappointing loss on homecoming against Minnesota. Minnesota is too good a team to be taken lightly and that is exactly what Illinois did. This game has special meaning to Tim Brewster, the former Illini Tight End, and that was apparent by the way he coached his team. Ron Zook will not let Illinois let down again this week at home. The Illini will come out with a purpose. Juice Williams appears to be hitting his stride after setting a big house record for total offense two weeks ago he followed that up with a good effort last week, although he got very little help from his teammates with the exception of Arrelious Benn.
Illinois is still one of the most talented team in the conference, unfortunately for them, they are far from the most focused. I’m betting on them to regain their focus this week. If they play the way they are capable of they should have no problem covering the spread this week. Take the Illini to cover and hope they feel like playing this week!
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