Ohio State is the play here, no doubt about it. Ohio State is underachieving this season. Keep in mind that Ohio State was favored over MSU last year by 18 points at home!! Ohio State dominated that game, outgaining Michigan State 422-185. Were it not for two late fluke plays, Michigan State would not have covered the huge spread. The Buckeyes completely dominated the game, especially in the trenches, where Michigan State's line was moving backwards consistently.
Ohio State returns 19 starters from the team that for all intents and purposes whipped MSU last year.
MSU is getting lucky this year. In four games this year against Notre Dame, IU, Iowa and Northwestern, MSU has been outgained 375-354 ypg. That is not very impressive given that those 4 teams are not all that great. It is clear to me that Ohio State is the underrated team while Michigan State is for sure the overrated team. Take the Buckeyes.