Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars 10/17/2021

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Expect a close game with the Miami Dolphins winning 57% of simulations, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 43% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Miami Dolphins commit fewer turnovers in 70% of simulations and they go on to win 71% when they take care of the ball. The Jacksonville Jaguars wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Myles Gaskin is averaging 45 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 75%. Trevor Lawrence is averaging 276 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (19% chance) then he helps his team win 68%.
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