MIAMI/BOWLING GREEN

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SixthSense

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Sep 21, 2004
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494
Last week's record was 2-1-1 +1.80%, which makes the record 20-13-1 +9.10% over the last six weeks. The overall record is still below .500, thanks to a horrible week nine, but the thinking has been good the past six weeks. Hopefully that will continue this week.

Home team in caps.

Miami-Oh. -7 BOWLING GREEN 58

I've liked this Miami-Oh. team all year long. But, it's hard to explain this line. On November 4th, Miami beat BG 33-10 as seven point home favorites. Now, on the road, they are seven point favorites again. That doesn't quite make sense. Yes, I realize you could say they should have been larger favorites based on that result, but I still don't think that quite justifies this line. BG is now 9-2 as a home dog since becoming a lined Division 1A team. My numbers on this game suggest a five point win for Miami-Oh. before accounting for the situation they qualify in. Miami-Oh. also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 56-22-0 and plays against them here. BG is averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year. Miami has defended the rush well this year, allowing 3.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. They allowed BG to rush for 183 yards on 37 carries in the first meeting (4.9 ypr), while only averaging 3.5 ypr themselves. Miami throws the ball very well, averaging 8.5 yps against 7.3 yps but BG defends the pass well too, allowing just 6.5 yps against 7.1 yps. They allowed Miami to throw for 8.6 yps in their first meeting. I just don't think Miami will be quite as efficient playing on the grass, which will probably be mud if they watered down the field last night like they did the night before the Toledo game. If that's the case, the running game will become more important in this game. Miami doesn't run the ball as well. It's more of a case of trying to keep the defense honest than really trying to run the ball. I also like the under in this game. Both defenses are better than average. BG is closer to being about average, allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl, while Miami is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The average points scored in a college game are around 52 points and we have two above average defenses. Add in the fact these two only totaled 43 points in the first game, BG only totaled 54 points against Toledo, the other good offense they faced this year. They scored 27 against a good Purdue defense, 17 against a good Ohio State defense and 10 against a good Miami-Oh. defense. That averages out to about 18 points and all of those games were on the road. Miami has faced two good defenses this year and they scored three points at Iowa (although they deserved better in that game) and 33 points at home against BG. The point here is Miami is the better team but, at home, BG has a legitimate shot at not only staying in this game, but winning it. And, I don't see a high scoring affair here, which also gives the under a shot. BOWLING GREEN 21 MIAMI-OH 20

YTD 39-41-3 -17.50%

2% BOWLING GREEN +7
1% MIAMI/BOWLING GREEN UNDER 58
 

ClayHenry

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Sep 21, 2004
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467
Like the pick Sixth, add in the fact that the Falcons have only lost 2 out of their last 31 home games by more than a TD and hopefully we have a winner.
 

SixthSense

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Sep 21, 2004
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494
Thanks Clay. Yeah, and the fact BG could be down by 13 the whole game and still get the "oh by the way" last score.
 

hdaddy

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Sep 21, 2004
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259
Always like to read your analysis Sixth. In this case I have to disagree with you though. I believe that Miami-OH will come out shooting. The passing offense of Miami has a lot of weapons. Roethlisberger tends to spread his passing around the field and to a variety of recivers. This will make it hard for BG's secondary to stop, especially in muddy or wet conditions. I belive in this case wet conditions will favor Miami's recievers and not the secondary of BG.

Also BG tends to turn the ball over, something which would be more likely to happen in wet conditions, thus playing to Miami's advantage. This is even more of a factor when you look at the fact Miami has 33 takeaways going into this game.

Also Miami's starters are more resteg than BG. They had an easy game last week against C. Florida. Most of the starters were pulled after the 3rd quarter, where as BG had a real fight against Toledo. This makes a difference during a short week as we have here.

In summary I think this game is going to come down to ball control and turn overs. If Miami continues to make big plays on defense and their offense continues to roll I forsee a Miami win by at least 7.

With that said YOU ARE THE MAN Sixth. I always love to read your analysis and put a lot of weight into what you say.
 

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