Last week's record was 2-1-1 +1.80%, which makes the record 20-13-1 +9.10% over the last six weeks. The overall record is still below .500, thanks to a horrible week nine, but the thinking has been good the past six weeks. Hopefully that will continue this week.
Home team in caps.
Miami-Oh. -7 BOWLING GREEN 58
I've liked this Miami-Oh. team all year long. But, it's hard to explain this line. On November 4th, Miami beat BG 33-10 as seven point home favorites. Now, on the road, they are seven point favorites again. That doesn't quite make sense. Yes, I realize you could say they should have been larger favorites based on that result, but I still don't think that quite justifies this line. BG is now 9-2 as a home dog since becoming a lined Division 1A team. My numbers on this game suggest a five point win for Miami-Oh. before accounting for the situation they qualify in. Miami-Oh. also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 56-22-0 and plays against them here. BG is averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year. Miami has defended the rush well this year, allowing 3.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. They allowed BG to rush for 183 yards on 37 carries in the first meeting (4.9 ypr), while only averaging 3.5 ypr themselves. Miami throws the ball very well, averaging 8.5 yps against 7.3 yps but BG defends the pass well too, allowing just 6.5 yps against 7.1 yps. They allowed Miami to throw for 8.6 yps in their first meeting. I just don't think Miami will be quite as efficient playing on the grass, which will probably be mud if they watered down the field last night like they did the night before the Toledo game. If that's the case, the running game will become more important in this game. Miami doesn't run the ball as well. It's more of a case of trying to keep the defense honest than really trying to run the ball. I also like the under in this game. Both defenses are better than average. BG is closer to being about average, allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl, while Miami is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The average points scored in a college game are around 52 points and we have two above average defenses. Add in the fact these two only totaled 43 points in the first game, BG only totaled 54 points against Toledo, the other good offense they faced this year. They scored 27 against a good Purdue defense, 17 against a good Ohio State defense and 10 against a good Miami-Oh. defense. That averages out to about 18 points and all of those games were on the road. Miami has faced two good defenses this year and they scored three points at Iowa (although they deserved better in that game) and 33 points at home against BG. The point here is Miami is the better team but, at home, BG has a legitimate shot at not only staying in this game, but winning it. And, I don't see a high scoring affair here, which also gives the under a shot. BOWLING GREEN 21 MIAMI-OH 20
YTD 39-41-3 -17.50%
2% BOWLING GREEN +7
1% MIAMI/BOWLING GREEN UNDER 58
Home team in caps.
Miami-Oh. -7 BOWLING GREEN 58
I've liked this Miami-Oh. team all year long. But, it's hard to explain this line. On November 4th, Miami beat BG 33-10 as seven point home favorites. Now, on the road, they are seven point favorites again. That doesn't quite make sense. Yes, I realize you could say they should have been larger favorites based on that result, but I still don't think that quite justifies this line. BG is now 9-2 as a home dog since becoming a lined Division 1A team. My numbers on this game suggest a five point win for Miami-Oh. before accounting for the situation they qualify in. Miami-Oh. also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 56-22-0 and plays against them here. BG is averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year. Miami has defended the rush well this year, allowing 3.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. They allowed BG to rush for 183 yards on 37 carries in the first meeting (4.9 ypr), while only averaging 3.5 ypr themselves. Miami throws the ball very well, averaging 8.5 yps against 7.3 yps but BG defends the pass well too, allowing just 6.5 yps against 7.1 yps. They allowed Miami to throw for 8.6 yps in their first meeting. I just don't think Miami will be quite as efficient playing on the grass, which will probably be mud if they watered down the field last night like they did the night before the Toledo game. If that's the case, the running game will become more important in this game. Miami doesn't run the ball as well. It's more of a case of trying to keep the defense honest than really trying to run the ball. I also like the under in this game. Both defenses are better than average. BG is closer to being about average, allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl, while Miami is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The average points scored in a college game are around 52 points and we have two above average defenses. Add in the fact these two only totaled 43 points in the first game, BG only totaled 54 points against Toledo, the other good offense they faced this year. They scored 27 against a good Purdue defense, 17 against a good Ohio State defense and 10 against a good Miami-Oh. defense. That averages out to about 18 points and all of those games were on the road. Miami has faced two good defenses this year and they scored three points at Iowa (although they deserved better in that game) and 33 points at home against BG. The point here is Miami is the better team but, at home, BG has a legitimate shot at not only staying in this game, but winning it. And, I don't see a high scoring affair here, which also gives the under a shot. BOWLING GREEN 21 MIAMI-OH 20
YTD 39-41-3 -17.50%
2% BOWLING GREEN +7
1% MIAMI/BOWLING GREEN UNDER 58