Mexico Open...Should we just pencil Rahm in as the winner?

Search

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,881
Tokens

Vidanta Vallarta Course Info & Key Stats​

Par: 71
Distance: 7,456 (about 150 yards longer than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 40.4 yards (wide; 72nd of 80)
Average Green Size: N/A
Green Type: Paspalum
Stimpmeter: N/A
Recent Winning Scores: -17
Recent Cut Lines: Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained

Vidanta Vallarta is a long par 71 with the longest average par 4s and par 5s on the PGA Tour. Along with that length, we get wide fairways that aren't problematic to miss based on last year's data.


It also isn't particularly hard to get up and down from within 30 yards of the green.

What this means, then, is that ball-striking wins out.

Among the top 10 by strokes gained: tee to green last year, only two were outside the top 25 in the actual tournament, and both were basically the worst putters in the field: Charles Howell (T33 finish; 4th in T2G; 74th in putting) and Kevin Na (T42; 9th; 72nd).

Golfers With Great Course/Event History​

Golfers who finished T15 or better in the field last year and are in the field this year include:

Winner: Jon Rahm
T2: Tony Finau, Brandon Wu
T6: Alex Smalley, David Lipsky, Cameron Champ
10th: Patrick Rodgers
T11: Nate Lashley, Martin Trainer
T13: Chez Reavie, Grayson Murray
T15: Stephan Jaeger, Lanto Griffin, Peter Malnati, Adam Long, Andrew Novak, Kelly Kraft

Win Simulations for the Mexico Open at Vidanta​

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.


win percent top 10 percent make cut current odds
Jon
Rahm
$12,60028.1%72.9%93.0%+260
Tony
Finau
$12,30012.8%63.7%88.2%+850
Wyndham
Clark
$11,6004.6%36.6%75.8%+1900
Patrick
Rodgers
$11,2002.6%25.8%67.8%+2800
Gary
Woodland
$11,3002.4%21.1%61.2%+2400
Byeong
Hun An
$11,1002.0%18.1%58.7%+3200
Beau
Hossler
$10,3002.0%17.6%57.7%+3800
Maverick
McNealy
$10,9001.9%25.0%67.2%+4700
Stephan
Jaeger
$10,1001.9%20.0%63.9%+3600
Alex
Noren
$10,8001.6%23.7%66.8%+4700
Lee
Hodges
$9,5001.5%16.5%56.7%+6000
Taylor
Pendrith
$10,6001.3%14.8%54.5%+4100
Alex
Smalley
$10,4001.3%17.6%59.6%+6500
Joseph
Bramlett
$9,3001.3%15.4%58.2%+4700
Emiliano
Grillo
$10,2001.3%16.1%56.5%+5500
Luke
List
$9,5001.2%12.5%51.5%+6500
Andrew
Putnam
$10,5001.2%18.9%63.4%+5500
Nicolai
Hojgaard
$11,5001.2%11.9%53.6%+2400
William
Gordon
$9,7001.1%14.1%52.8%+7000
Aaron
Rai
$10,0001.1%13.0%55.2%+5500
Robby
Shelton
$9,8001.1%16.8%59.5%+7500
Ben
Martin
$9,9001.1%13.6%52.8%+6500
Seonghyeon
Kim
$9,7000.9%12.3%55.1%+7500
Brandon
Wu
$9,9000.9%12.6%54.0%+6500
Matt
Wallace
$9,6000.9%13.0%55.4%+7500
Garrick
Higgo
$9,8000.8%10.8%49.8%+7500
Eric
Cole
$9,1000.8%11.0%49.8%+10000
MJ
Daffue
$9,2000.7%11.2%49.0%+9000
Alejandro
Tosti
$7,6000.6%11.4%53.9%+20000
Callum
Tarren
$7,9000.6%11.3%49.9%+15000
Lanto
Griffin
$9,0000.5%8.2%44.6%+9000
Harry
Hall
$9,6000.5%9.7%51.0%+6500
Akshay
Bhatia
$9,0000.5%8.1%45.8%+11000
Patton
Kizzire
$9,2000.5%8.1%45.4%+9000
Vincent
Norrman
$8,8000.5%6.2%44.8%+12000
Peter
Malnati
$8,8000.5%9.5%50.5%+12000
Michael
Kim
$8,8000.5%8.7%49.8%+12000
Benjamin
Taylor
$8,3000.4%9.3%50.6%+18000
Dylan
Wu
$9,1000.4%7.7%43.7%+9000
Mark
Hubbard
$9,4000.4%8.8%49.0%+7500
Kevin
Tway
$8,1000.4%7.9%46.8%+21000
Greyson
Sigg
$8,5000.4%8.1%47.9%+15000
David
Lipsky
$9,3000.4%8.2%47.4%+9000
Austin
Eckroat
$8,6000.4%6.6%44.0%+13000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Mexico Open at Vidanta​

Believe it or not, Jon Rahm at +260 is around where he should be, so if you're into betting a winner at +260, I think you can justify it this week with Rahmbo.

I'm more interested in Tony Finau at +850 between the two. He was the runner-up last year and led the field in strokes gained: tee to green at Vidanta Vallarta.

With some actual value on the two heavy, heavy favorites, that naturally doesn't bode well for finding value on long shots and in the mid-range.

Alejandro Tosti bombs it off the tee and has had some good results on the Korn Ferry Tour lately but is someone I'm still really only targeting for top-20 status rather than an outright.

Other interesting names with reasonable betting odds include Wyndham Clark (+1900), Maverick McNealy (+4700), Lee Hodges (+6000), Alex Smalley (+6500), Luke List (+6500), and Ben Martin (+6500).
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,881
Tokens

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
Got any sleeper DFS picks @chrishansen
Bet wise take Rahm after RD 1 or 2 if he is off the lead by several and has good odds. +300 is horrible lol. He is notorious for big comebacks also

DFS wise Fade Rahm. You have to take advantage of the leverage on the field and hope he finishes like 6th

To Win
Clark 18-1 is just in great form nipping at a win. Can absolutely bomb it also and course is long

Jagaer 40-1
B An 35-1
W Gordon 35-1 bomber
Noren 50-1 savvy vet
Grillo 50-1 savvy vet
Bramlett 55-1 bomber

Sleepers? To win or DFS?

Brent Grant I think has a good week here. Top 10 20 equity

I’ll dive deeper later on super long shot guys who have shot T10 equity
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,881
Tokens
^DFS


I like Jimmy Walker at 7k on DK


Someone else mentioned Auguston Nunez to me at 7k, I dont know the guy but willing to put him in a couple lineups.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
^DFS


I like Jimmy Walker at 7k on DK


Someone else mentioned Auguston Nunez to me at 7k, I dont know the guy but willing to put him in a couple lineups.
6.8 Grant like the length and player pool for this skill set

6.8 Fritelli is a guy who can randomly pop. Horrible accuracy off tee but wide wide open course

6.9 Glover steady and slow greens probably helps shit putting and also big drop in class T20 potential

7.0 Nunez I agree with

Feeling is fading all top guys maybe start with two 9k guys leverage the field. Plug n play 4 guys around 8.3k

Or find two anchor 7.8k range guys plug in play 4 more guys up to 9k

6/6 will be low if guys go heavy on Finau Rahm Clark. Even if they win a 6/6 team peppered the top 10 say a 4,5,8,9,12,14 team could still take a first.

Really depends on amount entries vs entry fee. It’s great week to fade the top 7-8 guys and punt all mid tier guys and hope the studs slip up
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens

Mexico Open at Vidanta 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers​

BETMGM

  • The Mexico Open at Vidanta is April 27-30.
  • Jon Rahm (+250) is a massive favorite.
  • It is the only event in Mexico on the PGA Tour schedule.
For the second straight week on the PGA Tour, there’s a huge favorite going into an event.
Last week at the Zurich Classic, Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele were +300, and this week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Jon Rahm is +250.
Part of the reason for having such a strong favorite this week is the lack of star power in the field. Many players are taking this week off since it isn’t a designated event, it is a long trip to Mexico, and this is only the second year of the tournament’s existence. Because of all this, only three top-65 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field.
Cantlay/Schauffele finished T-4 as a huge favorite, so how will Rahm fare this week?
Rahm won last year’s event by one stroke (-17) over three players, including Tony Finau, the other marquee name teeing it up.
Since Vidanta Vallarta is hosting a PGA Tour event for just the second time, it’s hard to know exactly which players it favors.
But, at 7,456 yards, it is one of the longer courses on Tour, and last year players seemed to hit more low irons than an average week. And looking at the leaderboard, some of the longer hitters — Rahm, Finau, Kurt Kitayama — were near the top.
Longer hitters should be targeted this week.
Another thing to consider is that the course is a resort-style course on the water, so the wind will likely be a factor.
Players who play well in windy conditions should also be targeted this week.
Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.
*All odds as of April 25.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions​

Jon Rahm is predicted to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta with a 26.32% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.
Tony Finau has the next best odds to win with an 11.76% implied probability. He’s followed by Wyndham Clark at 4.76%.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets​

Jon Rahm +250 Odds to Win​

Rahm is the best player on the planet right now. He’s won four of the last 10 events he’s appeared in, with his worst finish being a T-39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Including his win at this event last year, Rahm has made 24 starts and has seven wins, 11 top-five finishes, 15 top-10 finishes, and zero missed cuts.

Tony Finau +750 Odds to Win​

In the 2023 calendar year, Finau’s worst finish is T-31, but his best finish is T-7, so it’s been consistently solid but lacks a marquee finish. This could come this week at a place where he played well a year ago, and some of his most recent wins — Rocket Mortgage Classic, 3M Open and Houston Open — have been at tournaments with relatively weak fields.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Sleepers​

Matt Wallace +6600 Odds to Win​

Wallace is already a winner this season, winning the Corales Puntacana Championship, so this number feels a bit low. He also checks the boxes for some key metrics, including ball striking and playing well on longer courses.

Luke List +6600 Odds to Win​

It’s been a tough season for List, who has missed eight cuts in 17 starts, but he’s played better on longer courses throughout his career. This includes his only PGA Tour win, at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open played at Torrey Pines.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Card & Other Predictions​

  • Tony Finau Outright Win +750
  • Gary Woodland Top-10 Finish +190
  • Luke List Top-20 Finish +210
  • Matt Wallace Top-20 Finish +220
This is one of the tougher events of the year to handicap, given the lack of data to go on and the below-average field. Because of this, I will be keeping my card small and relying on my Fantasy National model.
While I like Rahm, the number is just too small to play, so I went with Finau based on his runner-up finish a year ago and his ability to win against weaker fields. For props, I went with players who ranked high in my model.
The top 10 of my Fantasy National Model were:
  1. Jon Rahm
  2. Gary Woodland
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Luke List
  5. Wyndham Clark
  6. Joseph Bramlett
  7. Charley Hoffman
  8. Matt Wallace
  9. Lanto Griffin
  10. Kevin Roy
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,881
Tokens
@chrishansen

Going with this lineup in the $5entry /250k contest on DK

golf entry.png
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,766
Messages
13,438,767
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com