McCrazy's NCAAF Week 3 Thread. YTD = 17-9

[McCrazy]

On to week 3 after after following up my 9-5 week 1 with a strong 8-4 last week. Hopefully I can keep this going in NCAAF, but again I'm still relatively new to NCAAF betting, so it's possible that I may have a few bad weeks in me to come. Started capping games Monday, but so far I only have 1 play.

PLAYS:

Bowling Green -3 (+104 at Pinnacle)

I cannot for the life of me understand why Bowling Green is only favored by 3 points against Marshall. Marshall has given up almost 275 rushing yards in 2 games. I know that Marshall played Vigirnia Tech and got destoryed as expected, but they also played South Illinois, hardly a powerhouse, and just squeaked by. Bowling Green beat up on Troy when they were 7.5 dogs and then almost upset Missouri last week on the road. Missouri had to score 2 4th quarter TDs to escape.

Maybe Bowling Green will have a drop-off this week after playing well the last 2, especially on the roas against a lesser team. Maybe the Marshall coaches will make their team watch the "We are Marshall" movie in order to inspire their team to play harder. But based on the results so far, I'm sticking with Bowling Green.

Leans:

Pittsburg -7
Notre Dame -10
California -14
Buffalo +4
Tulsa +16.5
Baylor -10.5

I'm still working hard on the other games, especially my leans, although I doubt I'll play all of them and I might still find some value in some other games not listed. More plays to be posted this week, final card probably up somtime Friday night.

McCrazy.

 

[United]

Nice start to the season. It's funny how we can all look at a game so differently. I'm seeing Marshall playing S Ill who could beat many D-1 teams. They have been a very solid program for a number of years in football and basketball. Then of course they catch VT in a home opener coming off a loss at Alabama. Yes they did give up a ton of rushing yards. BG is a nice football team and are perfect ats so far. Idon't know that much about Troy or their conf to tell you the truth. Of course we all knew Florida would pound Troy. BG went into Mizz and caught them the week after they were sky high for the big rivalry game with the Illni. That's sort of the way I saw this game. Obviously you can tell I bet Marshall at home with the points. Not trying to be arguementative, just saying that it is funny how us gamblers perceive games. Definitely with you on the Pitt game and my list( mark every game with who I would have played) agrees with all your plays.

Good Luck this week

 

[miamiboy86]

McCrazy, can you tell me what you like about the Baylor game? I agree with you on Cali and Tulsa, but I am high on the Huskies making this game close with Baylor...your thoughts?

 

[McCrazy]

United:

I don't take it as hating at all. Cappers often have a difference of opinion. I have found myself going against a lot of the big names on this site the last 2 weeks, which worried me a bit, but in the end worked out to my advantage as I'm off to a quick start. I generraly do my own research first, pick my games, then read other opinions. I also prefer finding an opinion that doesn't agree with me as it sometimes gives me a perspective that I never thought of. Good luck with your games this week (except Marshall of course )

Miamiboy:

UConn is missing thier starting QB this week, Zach Fraser, out with a knee injury. They were winning the game last week until Faser went out, then gave up 12 points in the 4th quarter, including a safety to lose the game. Also, Cody Enders, the backup QB, has been suffering from the flu. He's probably going to play, but not being at 100% this week at practice cannot help him. If he can't go or if he gets knocked out, they have a Freshman as their 3rd QB. They are travelling to Baylor and it's their longest trip of the year. They have to be demoralized after coughing up that win last week against a ranked team.

On the other hand, Baylor is healthy and rested, as they were off last week. They opened with a win against Wake forest although they were dogs on the road. Plus, this is their home opener, so they have an extra incentive to play well. Baylor can score, so I don't see a low scroing game like last week's game. Plus, Baylor has Griffin at QB, a big advantage. And finally, this is a revenga game for Baylor as they lost by 3 points to UConn last year.

I would like to see the spread drop to 10 or even 9.5, but so far there's been no movement. This game for me is still a lean, but there is a strong possibility I am going to play it.

 

[McCrazy]

Plays added

PLAYS:

Bowling Green -3 (+104 at Pinnacle)
Notre Dame -10 (+100 at Pinnacle)
Tulsa +17 (-111 at Pinnacle, bought 1/2 point)
Baylor -10.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)

More to come before Saturday.

 

[McCrazy]

Final Card for Saturday

PLAYS:

Bowling Green -3 (+104)
Notre Dame -10 (+100)
Tulsa +17 (-111, bought 1/2 point)
Baylor -10.5 (-106)
Army -8 (-108)
Pittsburg U -7.5 (-104)
Buffalo U +4.5 (-102)
Hawaii +7.5 (-115)

* all plays at Pinnacle

Smaller card this week, only 8 plays. I looked at a few others but couldn't find enough reason to play them. I still like California and Iowa but I'm determined to play less games then I have been. Quality over Quantity.

BOL this week!

McCrazy

 

[McCrazy]

Adding 2 plays, 1 Friday and 1 Saturday

I've changed my mind and added 2 more plays. Boise State -7.5 tonight. I've looked it over all week and don't feel Fresno keeps this game within 2 TDs even though they are at home.

Also added Iowa -4. I like the game at -6, liked it as -5.5, then -5 and almost played it at -4.5 yesterday when I was finalizing my card. But when it dropped to -4 I figured it was time to pull the trigger.

Final card:

PLAYS:

Boise State -7.5 (-105)
Bowling Green -3 (+104)
Notre Dame -10 (+100)
Tulsa +17 (-111, bought 1/2 point)
Baylor -10.5 (-106)
Army -8 (-108)
Pittsburg U -7.5 (-104)
Buffalo U +4.5 (-102)
Iowa -4 (-102)
Hawaii +7.5 (-115)

 

[McCrazy]

Off to a good start

PLAYS:

Boise State -7.5 (-105) - WIN @)
Bowling Green -3 (+104)
Notre Dame -10 (+100)
Tulsa +17 (-111, bought 1/2 point)
Baylor -10.5 (-106)
Army -8 (-108)
Pittsburg U -7.5 (-104)
Buffalo U +4.5 (-102)
Iowa -4 (-102)
Hawaii +7.5 (-115)

Updated Record = 18-9

Let's get some more tomorrow!!!!!

 

[K NON]

gl buddy

 

[orangebowl33]

love bowling green but why did you waived out cal?

 

[McCrazy]

love bowling green but why did you waived out cal?

Just a bad feeling about the game when I looked at it more closely. I still think California will win this game, but at the time Cal was -14 (now -13.5) and I didn't want to have to win by more then TDs. Cal's on the road against a decent team that is also 2-0. I think Minny will be pumped up and this game is going to be closer then expected. In the end, it came down to trying to be selective and I just didn't see this one being a solid play for me. I can see this game ending with a 28-20 score or something along those lines.

 

[McCrazy]

Update

Boise State -7.5 (-105) - WIN @)
Bowling Green -3 (+104)
Notre Dame -10 (+100) - LOSS
Tulsa +17 (-111, bought 1/2 point) - LOSS
Baylor -10.5 (-106) - LOSS
Army -8 (-108) - LOSS
Pittsburg U -7.5 (-104) - WIN @)
Buffalo U +4.5 (-102)
Iowa -4 (-102) - WIN @)
Hawaii +7.5 (-115)

Terrible afternoon, going 1-4. Pittsburgs has started off the everning well by holding off Navy, and Buffalo is looking good so far. Hopefully Bowling Green gets things going against Marshall. Looking at 6-4 or 5-5, hopefully not worse.

Updated record:

Week 3 so far = 3-4
YTD = 20-13

 

[McCrazy]

Took an ass wupping today. Hopefully I'll turn this back around next week. Many bizarre results today IMO

Boise State -7.5 (-105) - WIN @)
Bowling Green -3 (+104) - LOSS
Notre Dame -10 (+100) - LOSS
Tulsa +17 (-111, bought 1/2 point) - LOSS
Baylor -10.5 (-106) - LOSS
Army -8 (-108) - LOSS
Pittsburg U -7.5 (-104) - WIN @)
Buffalo U +4.5 (-102) - LOSS
Iowa -4 (-102) - WIN @)
Hawaii +7.5 (-115)

Week 3 = 3-6, 1 pending
YTD = 20-15

 

[McCrazy]

Hawaii +7.5 - WIN

Final record for Week 3 = 4-6
Updated YTD = 21-15