Mccain Pulling out of Wisconsin, Maine.. Focus on Red States.

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Rx .Junior
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By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 9 minutes ago


<!-- end storyhdr -->WASHINGTON - The Republican National Committee is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin and Maine, turning its attention primarily to usually Republican states where GOP nominee John McCain shows signs of faltering.
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The party's independent ad operation is doubling its budget to about $10 million and focusing on crucial states such as Colorado, Missouri, Indiana and Virginia where Democrat Barack Obama has established a foothold, according a Republican strategist familiar with presidential ad placements.
Florida and North Carolina have also been in the RNC ad mix, but Pennsylvania is the only Democratic leaning swing state apparently left in the party's ad campaign.
The shift in advertising resources suggests that the RNC has decided to focus on defending reliably Republican-voting states against Obama's onslaught of advertising. Flush with money, Obama is outspending the joint efforts of the Republican Party and the McCain campaign by more than 2-1.
While a pullout from Wisconsin is a significant strategic move, it does not represent a full GOP retreat from the state. McCain's campaign has notified Wisconsin stations that it planned to continue to buy air time through Oct. 26.
Like McCain, the RNC's independent ad operation has targeted Obama with critical ads.
The Republican Party has been helping McCain through various means. It had been spending more than $5 million a week on ads independently of the campaign. It also has teamed up with the campaign to run combined ads whose costs are split by the campaign and the RNC in certain situations allowed by federal election law.
Only the independent ads will be affected by Wednesday's decision to shift ads.
Wisconsin has been a seriously contested state in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Democrats won narrowly in six of them. Al Gore and John Kerry barely edged out George Bush in the 2000 and the 2004 elections.
A poll in Wisconsin by Quinnipiac University of New York for The Wall Street Journal and the Web site of The Washington Post, taken after last week's presidential debate, had Obama at 54 percent and McCain at 37 percent.
"Like most campaigns, we don't talk strategy and tactics," said McCain Wisconsin spokeswoman Sarah Lenti. "That said we are extremely excited by our chances in Wisconsin and will continue to run ads, period. We are up and running."
Two weeks ago, McCain halted his spending in Michigan after polls there showed Obama with a growing lead.
The RNC had record fundraising in September, collecting more than $66 million. McCain, meanwhile, is largely limited to the $84 million he agreed to accept in public financing for September and October.
Obama, however, bypassed public financing and has continued to raise money during the campaign. His extraordinary spending suggests his fundraising is at record levels. His campaign has not revealed its September fundraising but must file financial reports with the federal Election Commission by Monday night.
In a sign of his vast resources, Obama has purchased millions of dollars in national network time, airing spots during the Major League Baseball playoffs and during Sunday NFL games. On Sunday, he spent more than $5 million on ads, about half of that on national network spots, according to Evan Tracy, head of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising.
According to Tracey's data and ad information from ad buyers, Obama spent about $32 million during the week ending last Sunday, McCain spent about $9 million and the RNC spent about $5 million.
Obama tested but abandoned advertising efforts in Alaska, Georgia and North Dakota. But he has made inroads in the traditional Republican strongholds Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. The two campaigns also are fighting for supremacy in Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico — all of which Bush won in 2004. They are also battling in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, states that John Kerry won. ___
Associated Press Writer Scott Bauer in Wisconsin contributed to this report.
 

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In football terms, McCain is putting it all on his defense. Obama is 1st and goal at the McCain 1 yard line and McCain is attempting a desperate goal line stand. Aside from New Hampshire (4) which is unlikely anyway, McCain is simply not going to win any of the Kerry states. Add in the sure thing of Iowa (7) and even subtract NH (4), Obama is at 255. Obama needs 15 from the states McCain is defending: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (13), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (13), Ohio (20), Virginia (13). That's 116. A few others may be in play too but don't seem worth mentioning. Mind you, Obama is favored in all 9 of those states at Intrade, roughly now as follows:
Colorado 80%
Florida 75%
Indiana 40%
Mizzou 60%
Nevada 70%
New Mexico 85%
North Carolina 60%
Ohio 70%
Virginia 75%

If you're inclined to bet McCain, taking McCain in Florida at a good number like +300 or better might be the way to go. McCain cannot possibly win without Florida's 27 EV, but he could easily win Florida and still lose overall.
 

Rx Junior
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People should be paying attention to these numbers instead of wasting time on national polls. I gurantee you that even the mccain team doesnt look at national polls. These are the numbers they look at before making important decisions on what strategy of attack they will employ and in what area.

I have seen many on these forums talking about the polls from the last election that were giving Kerry the lead..*(btw Kerry did win the popular vote as projected but lost the EV )

This is something important that people must be made to understand.
 

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What I find amazing is that the old folks living on fixed income in senior homes (limited income to get in) seem to be for McCain if the bumper stickers are right. But it could be that the ones that will vote Obama (like me) don't put a sticker on their car bumpers.
 

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People should be paying attention to these numbers instead of wasting time on national polls. I gurantee you that even the mccain team doesnt look at national polls. These are the numbers they look at before making important decisions on what strategy of attack they will employ and in what area.

I have seen many on these forums talking about the polls from the last election that were giving Kerry the lead..*(btw Kerry did win the popular vote as projected but lost the EV )

This is something important that people must be made to understand.

Exactly. And McCain is dropping out one by one of every single state Kerry won. Throw in Iowa and we're at 259 and McCain has at least a dozen states with around 125 EV's to defend and NO margin for error. Now tell me how he's going to win. Like trying to hit a 12-team parlay. GL
 

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People should be paying attention to these numbers instead of wasting time on national polls. I gurantee you that even the mccain team doesnt look at national polls. These are the numbers they look at before making important decisions on what strategy of attack they will employ and in what area.

I have seen many on these forums talking about the polls from the last election that were giving Kerry the lead..*(btw Kerry did win the popular vote as projected but lost the EV )

This is something important that people must be made to understand.


You're spot on with the state polls should be driving the conversation and thinking. However, Kerry did not win the popular vote...you're thinking Gore

<table class="dataTable" width="334" border="1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th style="background-color: rgb(221, 221, 221);" width="44">STATUS</th> <th width="92">CANDIDATE</th> <th width="64">VOTE</th> <th width="44">VOTE %</th> <th width="44">EV</th> </tr> <tr class="topRow" align="center"><td>
icon.lg.pro.winner.gif
</td><td align="left"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td>
icon.rep.gif
</td><td>Bush
(Incumbent)
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td>62,040,606</td> <td>51%</td><td>286</td></tr><tr align="center"><td> </td><td align="left"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td>
icon.dem.gif
</td><td>Kerry</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td>59,028,109</td> <td>48%</td><td>252</td></tr><tr align="center"><td> </td><td align="left"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td>
icon.ind.gif
</td><td>Nader</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td>411,304</td> <td>1%</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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But it could be that the ones that will vote Obama (like me) don't put a sticker on their car bumpers.

Go for it. If you're not one to traditionally apply bumper stickers, please reconsider.

They're real easy to remove if you have a $2 bottle of nail polish remover to clean off the gummy residue.

Just got a couple of slightly above average sized stickers for the tailgate and back window of my truck.

Unfortunately, the overly staid homeowners assocation in my townhome community does not permit yard signs.
 

Rx. Junior
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You have to appreciate the gall of that Obama machine! 90% of Blacks plan to vote for Obama. 30% of Whites have announced for Obama. But Whites are the racists!
 

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You have to appreciate the gall of that Obama machine! 90% of Blacks plan to vote for Obama. 30% of Whites have announced for Obama. But Whites are the racists!


This is a demographic (African American) that goes greatly for democrats anyway....over 85% for Kerry.

Even when running against a Black republican (Swann vs Rendell) (Steele in Maryland) both 06 races...saw the Democrat get 75% and 82% of the Black over a Black candidate.
 

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