McCain, Obama and the Disappearing GOP
Sun, 09/07/2008 - 1:13pm — jmartin
If you watched the RNC, you got the feeling that McCain's VP pick has galvanized the GOP's base. Let's try to understand what that will mean on November 4th.
It's widely believed that George W. owes his win in 2004 to the fact that hardcore Republicans-- Evangelicals and others-- were all motivated to vote for him over Kerry, and that they all came out on Election Day. If this plan worked so well in 2004, why can't the GOP pull out the same magic this time around? If the Republican base likes Palin as much as they liked Bush (and it seems like they do) won't they also come out this year and hand the election to McCain?
Maybe not. The math is pretty different this time around. The base certainly seems happy about McCain's move towards the right. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, however, the base is significantly smaller than it was around Election Day 2004. Where 37% of the country proudly called themselves Republican back then, today that number is closer to 27%; it's like 1 out of every 4 Republicans has left the party for greener pastures. Of course everyone in St. Paul was excited to be there, but it was probably a lot easier to get a ticket to this year's RNC than in the past.
If Bush were facing these realities back in 2004, Democrat John Kerry would have won in a landslide.
http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=node/2038
Sun, 09/07/2008 - 1:13pm — jmartin
If you watched the RNC, you got the feeling that McCain's VP pick has galvanized the GOP's base. Let's try to understand what that will mean on November 4th.
It's widely believed that George W. owes his win in 2004 to the fact that hardcore Republicans-- Evangelicals and others-- were all motivated to vote for him over Kerry, and that they all came out on Election Day. If this plan worked so well in 2004, why can't the GOP pull out the same magic this time around? If the Republican base likes Palin as much as they liked Bush (and it seems like they do) won't they also come out this year and hand the election to McCain?
Maybe not. The math is pretty different this time around. The base certainly seems happy about McCain's move towards the right. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, however, the base is significantly smaller than it was around Election Day 2004. Where 37% of the country proudly called themselves Republican back then, today that number is closer to 27%; it's like 1 out of every 4 Republicans has left the party for greener pastures. Of course everyone in St. Paul was excited to be there, but it was probably a lot easier to get a ticket to this year's RNC than in the past.
If Bush were facing these realities back in 2004, Democrat John Kerry would have won in a landslide.
http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=node/2038
