LSU @ SoCar - thoughts, comments, witticism? (long)

[USC_TheReal]

Line is currently at LSU -3.5. When I initially saw this line, I thought, "holy hell, I may play my biggest play of the year on the bayou bengals." There are a number of reasons I initially thought that. First off, it goes without saying that LSU is a very stout football team. Albeit they are lacking in many areas, especially from last year, but nonetheless they are still LSU. Furthermore, it does not bode well for the Cocks to have an extremely pissed off LSU team coming into Columbia after getting their asses handed to them in Gainesville. FWIW, I still don't think Florida is as good as they were Saturday night. In addition, I certainly don't think LSU is as bad as they were Saturday night.

So Car has been up and down this year. However, I am reluctant to say that hopefully our offense is starting to come around. Last week we saw a piss-poor showing from Smelley, but covered our asses by bringing in Garcia. SOS said in his post-game presser that Garcia will get the nod against LSU. Furthermore, McKinley is back, and based on his showing Saturday, his injury should not pose any threats to his performance. Jarrett Lee threw two picks against UF this week, and I look for him to throw at least one, if not two, against SoCar's fast, experienced secondary. SoCar should go ahead and all but abandon their running game. With the lack of intensity and fundamental play out of their OL, about the only thing they do well whatsoever is pass block. SoCar does not have the complete team speed as does UF, but still I look for SoCar's WRs to get separation on LSU's DBs. The question then becomes, can Garcia get it to them? So much of SOS's passing offense is based on timing and precise route running. Will Garcia be spot on?

With all that said, I'm obviously not making my play of the year on LSU. However, now this game just scares the hell out of me and I may not touch it at all, depending on how the line moves. I would love to hear some RX thoughts on this one. I'm obviously a SoCar fan, also an alum. However, I am an objective gambler, and I bet with my head and not my heart. What's everyone thinking on this one? BOL to everyone this week and weekend. I feel a big weekend on the horizon!
-tb

 

[doziergamecock4]

Im probably not going to be much help with you here on this one bc im a big gamecock fan and alum as well. I feel like there is a lot of value in LSU in this one bc of this being garcias first start and the fact that our offense has improved over the last few weeks but we are still very inconsistent. Smelley goes from being sec pow to being awful against UK and bringing back memorys of that awful performence he had in the spring game. LSU is a lot better than they showed against UF and if they can establish a running game it could get nasty. Two sub par qbs for them bodes well for us but there team spead still scares me. Anyway im am undecided on this game and will probably change my mind a few times before saturday but if I had to make a pick rite now i would probably go with LSU- 3.5. No matter my wager I will be pulling for the GAMECOCKS!!

 

[Paddywack]

What happened to Smelley? He get demoted?

 

[Jlip9]

line opened at 3. immediately jumped to 3.5. will probably continue with that trend. i like lsu at 3 a lot

 

[doziergamecock4]

paddywack, smelley was 9 of 23 saturday against uk with 2 ints and was pulled in the 3rd qtr. Garcia came in and went 10 of 14 with a td for 169 yds and looked really good and he is going to be the starter against LSU. Smelley could still play some if garcia struggles.

 

[USC_TheReal]

paddywack, smelley was 9 of 23 saturday against uk with 2 ints and was pulled in the 3rd qtr. Garcia came in and went 10 of 14 with a td for 169 yds and looked really good and he is going to be the starter against LSU. Smelley could still play some if garcia struggles.

I agree. If SG5 (Garcia) struggles and makes the same errors as did Smelley vs. UK, he will be out. I think SG5 will certainly be on a much shorter leash than Smelley was against UK. However, here is how I feel about SG5 as the starter. And keep in mind I have always been a strong Smelley advocate (bring on the witty retorts). SG5 played fair against UAB, but it was UAB. However, SG5's performance against UK, who is one of the best defenses in the SEC, as well as the country (if I read the stats correctly), just goes to show that IMHO he deserves to be the starter. I hope, and think, that SG5 will provide the spark that our offense really needs to get firing on all cylinders. No doubt the Brice will be loud and rocking on Saturday night. And regardless of it being SG5's first start and a hostile conference game, I think he feeds off the atmosphere and has a big night. Maybe that's wishful thinking, because I still like LSU at 3.5 if I had to wager right now. Thanks for the insightful dialogue. Keep it coming.
(anxiously awaiting some words from The Profit Son, I think he started the thread last week about the SoCar-UK game)

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

random notes I've typed up about this game already



Chris Smelley and Ryan Succop were the two best players on UK's team this past weekend. Smelley was horrible, there is no other way to put it, careless with the ball and couldn't hit an open WR if he was 10 feet from him. I was ready for the Garcia era to kick off at Ole Miss but then Smelley came out and threw for 327 and no one could really complain about him. This past weekend, he would of given Wakefield a run for his money with the knuckle-balls he was throwing. Succop is a reliable kicker but he missed 4 field goals which is very wierd for him. He had a slight ab strain this week but I don't know if that was the issue for him because he was booming his kickoffs. All in all, South Carolina was able to over come the 4 turnovers and 4 missed field goals and leave Kentucky with a road win. Stephen Garcia played very well and he can make all the throws. I think he came into a tough situation (on the road and losing) and he performed great. He is going to have his ups and downs but there is a reason to be excited about this kid, he can make plays. I believe this team is going to get better every week where as last year they were getting worse. South Carolina needs to win 2 of their next 3, which are all at home (LSU, Tenn, Arky). South Carolina also needs to protect the ball much better.


As far as this matchup goes, South Carolina is going to do what they've done all year, drop back around 35 times and throw the ball in 4-5 WR sets because the OL pass blocks better than they run block and the WR's have been making plays. South Carolina just doesn't have a run game that would put fear in anyone but they move the chains throwing the ball. Jason Barnes has stepped it up big time at WR (11rec-164yds-2td) over the last 2 games since being inserted as a starter. The OL will probably give up their customary 3 sacks a game but for the most part the QB's have had time to throw the ball and they've faced some pretty good DL's the last 2 weeks (Ole Miss, UK). LSU can be thrown on, their secondary is clearly a weakness on their defense.

Jasper Brinkley is finally starting to look like Jasper Brinkley of old over the last 2 weeks and he will be needed big time this week to help stop the bruising Scott. Having 2 LB's that are 260lbs should help SC contain the rush but I don't think they'll be able to do it from their preferred 4-2-5 formation.

This South Carolina game is sandwiched between @ UF and UGA for LSU but they are coming off a loss and the situation would of been much more attractive if they were coming off a win. As many have mentioned already, I was pretty shocked to see UF win the battle in the trenches like they did.

Can SC win this game? Sure, anything can happen but it won't happen with 4 turnovers. They really need to take care of the ball, simple as that. LSU still has a ton of speed, they have a good DL and a good OL, they have a power run game thats been successful every week cept against UF, they have talent at WR, and dangerous special teams. I think South Carolina should be real excited about this game having picked up 4 straight wins and the last 2 on the road in conference but I can't stress enough how important it is to take care of the ball. SC has won the turnover margin in 1 game this season (Ole Miss). I'm still waiting for SC to string together an impressive-full game performance


Whats the status with Ricky Jean-Francois?


I think there might be an over-reaction to the LSU loss this past weekend and the line is going to be a little short in this game. I will predict LSU-3?
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LSU has scored 21+ points in 26 straight games.

LSU is giving up an average of 30 points per game in their last 11 BCS games.

South Carolina offense is 2nd in SEC in 3rd down conversion (46.8%)

South Carolina has lost the turnover battle in every game this year except Ole Miss.

South Carolina has not been out gained in a game this year.

2nd half adjustments, Ole Miss scored 21 in the first half and UK scored 17 in the first half, they were held to a total of 3 points combined in the 2nd half

In the 4th qtr against SEC competition - Georgia, Ole Miss, Vandy and Kentucky - SC is giving up 2.5 points, 26.5 yards, 1.75 first downs, forcing avg of 2 punts, and forcing 0.5 turnovers per game.

LSU - against Florida, Miss St and Auburn is giving up 12.7 points, 93.7 yards, 3.33 1st downs, forcing 1 punt and has no turnovers.

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I think this line is a little short and I am going to need +4.5 or more to get on SC

And looking at this game position by position


OL - LSU
RB - LSU
QB - PUSH? Both RS-Frosh.
WR - SC slightly
DL - LSU
LB - SC
DB - SC


LSU does have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, no doubt about that

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[WillnWhit]

If South Carolina digs their normal hole in the first two quarters like they did against Ole Miss and Kentucky, then there is no way in hell that they will be able to come back on LSU. Garcia will have a rough time against LSU's defensive scheme. Especially for his first SEC start.

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

they most def have to play mistake free for the most part to cover this spread

 

[jbragg10]

This is easy. Don't over think this game. South Carolina is horrible. I have seen every game they played in. Offense is horrible.

LSU will cover EASY!

However, the best bet will probably be the under.

 

[TheProfitSon]

Here are my .02 (which is exactly how much my opinion is worth in the gambling world)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why is this line as small as it is?

Can't be because this game is in Columbia. The Gamecocks are 2-7 in their last 9 SEC home games.

It's not because of their winning tradition in games such as this (prime time SEC tilts with boatloads of hype being sent their way). I'm pretty sure SCar owns the patent on shitting the bed when it comes to these type of games. Name one mid-to-late season primetime SEC game where the Gamecocks have come through with a huge win. Most lifelong SCar fans could write the book on "almosts" and "moral victories."

Then it must be based on SCar's rich history against the Bayou Bengals? Not a chance. LSU holds a 14-2-1 series advantage over the Gamecocks.

Then SCar's experience under center must be the difference, right??? Um, no. This will be R-Fr Stephen Garcia FIRST ever start. Ever. Not just in an SEC game. EVER.


With that said, I've been doing some looking into the numbers, cause I figure the oddsmakers gotta have some reason for making this only a field goal spread, and have been a little surprised at what I found. Granted, these numbers are a little skewed from the pwning that occured last week in the Swamp, but I was surprised to see LSU's D ranked in the bottom half of the SEC in every major category. Here are some highlights (lowlights?)

Total D- 9th
Pass D- 9th
Rush D- 7th
Scoring D- 10th
Sacks By- t10th (only 9 on the season)
Red Zone D- last
Turnover Margin- 9th (-4)

Because of this, I think this game is very intriguing. A good offense (LSU) going up against a good defense (SCar). A marginal offense (SCar) battling with an underachieving (in my opinion) defense (LSU).

I will take a longer look at this game and come back to this thread soon. I look forward to everyone's input and to watching this line during the week, of which I am pretty certain will shift a good bit in one direction. Just not real sure which way yet. For now, it's back to the books for me. Y'all keep it real.

 

[USC_TheReal]

Thanks for the valuable insight, everything and Profit. That's exactly some of the things I needed to know but did not know already. Those numbers on LSU's D are surprising to me as well. Looking forward to reading more thoughts. I'm not over thinking this one, just curious as to what everyone else thinks. Cheers.

 

[vijaysinger]

I think LSU defense not too good. They had a hard time with lousy offenses like Miss St and Aub. and Florida exposed that. SC offense is not Florida but I think they are better than Aub. and Miss. St. I just wonder if they can stop LSU running game. I would lean to LSU because I think the whipping they got from Fla woke them up, and SC is just happy with the way things turned up for them until now.

 

[USC_TheReal]

Here are my .02 (which is exactly how much my opinion is worth in the gambling world)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total D- 9th
Pass D- 9th
Rush D- 7th
Scoring D- 10th
Sacks By- t10th (only 9 on the season)
Red Zone D- last
Turnover Margin- 9th (-4)

Profit, where did you get these numbers? I'm not refuting your stats, would just like to see them, as well as some others. Thanks for the valuable info. BOL to all this week.

 

[straightcashhomie]

With LSU getting 75% of bets (sportsinsights) and the line is being held at -3 you have to figure they are asking for more LSU money. Just my thought; not sure if i'll hit this one either. BOL.

 

[TheProfitSon]

Profit, where did you get these numbers? I'm not refuting your stats, would just like to see them, as well as some others. Thanks for the valuable info. BOL to all this week.

www.secsports.com

Click the link for football and then for 2008 Statistics.

 

[MajorGCG]

LSU will be pissed off for this game. Cocks struggle as an O unit making points tough to come by. Cocks D is good, but LSU will score on them. I laid the 3.5 and didnt bother to buy the half. LSU wins by 10+ IMO.

 

[nd2000]

The gap between these teams was only 12 points in last year's game in Baton Rouge. LSU lost a lot of talent from last year's title game as evidenced by the ass kicking they received last week. South Carolina returns their best team yet under Spurrier. This has upset written all over it.

 

[hognosticator]

South Carolina is an underrated team and a team that is playing very well. They are just a couple plays away from being undefeated. They could have easily beaten Georgia in Columbia as they fumbled going into the endzone as they were about to tie the game. They have one of the best defenses in the country (was ranked #1 a few weeks ago, not sure now). Their offense has started to click the last two weeks. They put up 24 points against a good Kentucky defense last week on the road. As for LSU, how good are they? I bet Florida against them last week because they had not proven anything. Their schedule before Florida was horrible. Appalachian State, North Texas, Auburn and Mississippi State? Hardly murderer's row. They were fortunate to beat Auburn, where they scored a touchdown with around a minute left to take the lead. Auburn's horrible offense had over 400 yards offense against LSU. Mississippi State, who also has a horrible offense moved the ball the entire game against LSU and that was a very close game that was undecided until very late.

LSU appears to be very overrated and has shown a lot of weaknesses on defense. The line is probably about right for this game. I am not sure I am going to play anything but if I did I would definitely play South Carolina. South Carolina could very well be the better team and quite possibly could end up being as good as anyone else in the SEC East.

 

[smalltime]

Fyi

good luck to everyone