love systems? look inside and you'll find tons of them !

[w365]

systems based on presvious seasons w/l records:

15+ wins (prev.season), week 1:
Favored by at least 1.5 pt = 7-0 straight up (New England)

14 wins, week 1:
line <3.5 >-6 = 1-7 ATS (GB, NYG)

13 wins, week 1:
9-16 ATS overall
3-8 ATS on the road (Dallas)
10-0 straight up favored by 7 or more (SD, Colts)
5-14 ATS line >-9 (Dallas)

10 wins, week 1:
2-9 straight up, 3-8 ATS line>2 (Titans, Browns)

9 wins, week 1:
line >-1.5 and line < 4: 2-17 straight up, 3-16 ATS (Skins, TB)
vs 7- wins: 7-17 ATS (TB)

8 wins, week 1:
6.5+ dogs: 8-1 ATS (Houston)
2-6 dog = 4-14 su/ATS but if vs 13+wins, 2-0 su/ATS (Min)
-3+ favs: 3-11 ats home (Eagles)

7 wins, week 1:
7.5+ dogs: 6-1 ATS (Chicago)
vs <9 wins: 9-20 ATS (Cin, Det, Den)
vs <9 wins, >-7 and <3.5: 0-12 ats (Cin, Det, Den)
vs 9+ wins: 15-6 ATS (Buf, NO, Car, Chi)

5 wins, week 1:
dogs, vs <16 wins, line<16: 15-2-1 ats (SF)

4 wins, week 1:
7.5+ dogs: 7-1 ATS (KC)

1 win, week 1:
6-0 su/ATS winning 5 games as underdogs (MIA)

13 wins, after <12 wins: 3-14 ATS (Dallas)
<5 wins two straight seasons, dogs: 8-0 ATS (Oakland)
>12 wins after <12 wins, line >-6 and <3: 1-14 ATS (NYG, DAL, GB)

12+ ATS wins, favored in week 1: 2-10 ATS (NYG,JAX,SD,GB)
5- ATS wins, favored in week 1: 13-7-1 ATS but:
10-1 ATS favored by 5+ (None)
3-6-1 ATS favored by <5 (Denver)

12+ ATS wins after <11 ATS wins: 0-8 ATS fav w1 (NYG,JAX,SD,GB)

 

[ivan722]

Very nice stuff w365.
Looking forward to your weekly selections this year.
:howdy:

 

[w365]

week 1, based on revenge

week 1 revenge vs teams with 5,6,7,8 more wins (previous season) 33-10 ats (STL, CAR, CHI, MIN). however, STL, CAR, CHI not real revenge games as they did not play last season.

week 1 revenge vs teams with 5,6,7,8 more wins (previous season), line +3 or higher: 32-5 ATS (MIN)

week 1 revenge vs teams with 1,2,3,4 less wins (previous season) 21-36 ATS (SEA, ARI, DEN). however, SEA did not play BUF last season.

week 1 revenge vs teams with 1,2,3,4 less wins (previous season), line -6.5 or higher 16-33 ATS, 6-18-1 ats on the road, conference (ARI,DEN)



based on previous season wins vs opponents win (same period)

week 1, 9+ more wins than opponent:8-3 ATS,8-0 SU/7-1 ATS home(NE)

week 1, 1-8 more wins: 90-133 ATS
*line from +6.5 to +2.5: 6-23-1 ATS/2-32 SU (Tampa)
**line-3.5 to -6.5: 33-61 ATS (NYG,NYJ,PIT,JAX,DET,DAL,ARI,GB,DEN)
***line -3.5/-6.5, next line>-6.5=17-51 ATS (NY,NY,PIT,DET,GB)

 

[GreenValley]

W365

Very nice job my man. I'll be examining them tonight while I watch MNF.

Thanks,
BOL,
Green Valley

 

[w365]

based on average line (previous season)

average line >5, week 1 line<14>-1: 31-9 ATS (MIA, ATL, SF)
average line >5, week 1 line<14>-5: 37-11 ATS (MIA,ATL,SF,BUF)
average line>5, home, line<3.5 16-3 SU
average line>5, home, line<4.5 17-2-1 ATS (*same teams apply)

average line <0, week 1 line +2,+2.5,+3: 7-35SU,8-34ATS (TEN)

average line <-3, week 1 line>0: 3-19 SU,5-17 ATS (SEA)


based on average total (previous season)

average total >45, week 1 tot>44.5: 21-6 under, 9-17-1 ats (NE,DAL)
average total>44, w1 total>44.5: 24-7 under
average total>44, w1 total>44.5, line>-4.5<5 = 16-1 under (DAL)

average total>44, w1 line>-2: 6-16 su, 7-15 ats, 17-5 under (CIN,CLE)

 

[liftnbet]

thanks bro

 

[ivan722]

W365 when do you normally post your weekly NFL selections?
:howdy:

 

[w365]

Very nice job my man. I'll be examining them tonight while I watch MNF.

Thanks,
BOL,
Green Valley

You are welcome man. Always enjoy your posts !

 

[w365]

thanks bro

my pleasure !

 

[w365]

W365 when do you normally post your weekly NFL selections?
:howdy:

Friday night. :howdy:

 

[beejmi]

based on average line (previous season)

average line >5, week 1 line<14>-1: 31-9 ATS (MIA, ATL, SF)
average line >5, week 1 line<14>-5: 37-11 ATS (MIA,ATL,SF,BUF)
average line>5, home, line<3.5 16-3 SU
average line>5, home, line<4.5 17-2-1 ATS (*same teams apply)

average line <0, week 1 line +2,+2.5,+3: 7-35SU,8-34ATS (TEN)

average line <-3, week 1 line>0: 3-19 SU,5-17 ATS (SEA)

I find this interesting but I am not sure what your stats on this are. Are you taking a teams average line last year and comparing it to opening today and then ????? ~ I guess fully explain a couple of those above if you can.

Great post by the way as I have never seen those revenge systems anywhere.

 

[RDTrains]

10 wins, week 1:
2-9 straight up, 3-8 ATS line>2 (Titans, Browns, Pitt?)

 

[RDTrains]

Also

5 wins, week 1:
dogs, vs <16 wins, line<16: 15-2-1 ats (SF, BALT?)

 

[w365]

I find this interesting but I am not sure what your stats on this are. Are you taking a teams average line last year and comparing it to opening today and then ????? ~ I guess fully explain a couple of those above if you can.

Great post by the way as I have never seen those revenge systems anywhere.

Yes, it's previous season average line.

And this years line (week 1) follows. ex: <16 >1 (dog from 1.5 to 15.5)

 

[w365]

10 wins, week 1:
2-9 straight up, 3-8 ATS line>2 (Titans, Browns, Pitt?)

No, Pittsbugh is a fave. This system applies to dogs of 2.5 pts or more.

 

[w365]

5 wins, week 1:
dogs, vs <16 wins, line<16: 15-2-1 ats (SF, BALT?)

My bad here, the line must be 2 or higher. Sorry.

 

[w365]

week =1, H line>-3.5, total>43.5: 28-4 under, 25-11 ATS (CLE)

week=1, H line<-6 and >-9.5, total>43.5: 10-1 over (PHI)

 

[w365]

very powerfull system (first half of the season, weeks 1-8)

weeks 1 to 8, fade teams with line<2.5 (mostly favs) if they have at least a double revenge game vs divisional foe in the next week, with next week's line >2: 89-32 ATS /// fade DEN and NYJ in week 1, fade JAX and HOU in week 2.

 

[w365]

this system works every week of the regular season. it is not an extremely high percentage system but week after week it is at 57% or higher.

fade the fave if they are a dog next week

week 1: 67-49 ATS

Fade: NYJ,PIT,DET,BUF,NO.PHI,DEN

the system works the best (at least in week 1) when fading average sized favs (not too big - TD or more, or not too small, FG or less). so fading those -3.5 to -6.5 in week 1 gives us a record of 30-7 ATS.

hence, best chance of covering the spread : HOU, TB

 

[w365]

week1, at least 5 upset losses previous year, line>-5.5, next line>-3.5:
3-25 ATS (fade NO)