Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

I have already begun putting together information and data on all of the college football teams. I am going over 2008 rosters and deleting the seniors and the underclassmen declaring for the draft, and trying to keep up with committments for next years freshman classes. I will post few of these on this thread and if anyone finds anything wrong I would appreciate the input. If you want to do any yourself feel free to do so.
One interesting thing I came up with I hope maybe someone can help me with. Nebraska shows a roster of 142 players and list 72 players as freshmen. I have already determined that includes red shirt freshmen also. Still anyway you look at it that is a huge number. Does anyone know what that is all about? By the same token LSU had only eighty or so on their entire roster.
At any rate my goal is to try to look at the top 25 or so teams and list some stats and a little info and analysis. I am sure I will miss some things and I would love to have help and outside input to make them as accurate as I can. Just something to do while I am going through withdrawal.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ...You contribute a great deal to this forum and I look forward to seeing you post here next season. I wanted to let you know that SoonerBS, Conan, Ducks, me and a few others generally come on here every summer, and we have some pretty good discussions on what we expect for the upcoming season. SoonerBS is especially good at evaluating teams and making preseason predictions from each conference team. And listing the key games for them next season. Very imformative stuff. And he was dead on in many games this year. So look for him around maybe July or August. And then we can all compare notes. The great thing about this place is most of us live in different georgraphical locations, and many of us can offer insight from our region that the others may not know. For instance Conan and Ducks are great west coast cappers. So if say some team from the Big 12 was playing somebody out west in an early out of conference game, we should be on top of things by offering each other info about our respective teams. This place gets more and more crowded every year with a lot of nonsense posters after the season begins. But most of the time we learn more from just a few of us posting before the season begins, and offering some intelligent opinions from people who have done this for a long time. For the most part I usually take the next few months off, and then get on here and maybe offer a few insights after the spring practices. Looking forward to your evaluations of these teams. So far from what I've seen it's very good info that I'll use for next season.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: I have never done this Forum thing until this year. You are right if the we were to combine our knowledge, insight, and experience we could do some damage. I had my best year ever last year and I also took a consensus service that proved to me once again that those so called professionals are not any better than we are. My first time was on another forum and somebody had posted that he had heard Mississippi was the play against Florida. I went with it and reaped the benefits. If you get a group who you can count on and pool your info this forum could pay dividends to us all (those who actually listen that is). I will post from time to time with these team breakdowns and try to put in around five a week or so. I have a little trip to Cancun (a business trip haha, so I will be off that week. Other than that I look forward to being a positive contributor and appreciate the encouragement I have received on here.
I told you not to worry about the offensive line. I tell you something is brewing down there in Norman.

 

[Conan]

Russ...You contribute a great deal to this forum and I look forward to seeing you post here next season. I wanted to let you know that SoonerBS, Conan, Ducks, me and a few others generally come on here every summer, and we have some pretty good discussions on what we expect for the upcoming season. SoonerBS is especially good at evaluating teams and making preseason predictions from each conference team. And listing the key games for them next season. Very imformative stuff. And he was dead on in many games this year. So look for him around maybe July or August. And then we can all compare notes. The great thing about this place is most of us live in different georgraphical locations, and many of us can offer insight from our region that the others may not know. For instance Conan and Ducks are great west coast cappers. So if say some team from the Big 12 was playing somebody out west in an early out of conference game, we should be on top of things by offering each other info about our respective teams. This place gets more and more crowded every year with a lot of nonsense posters after the season begins. But most of the time we learn more from just a few of us posting before the season begins, and offering some intelligent opinions from people who have done this for a long time. For the most part I usually take the next few months off, and then get on here and maybe offer a few insights after the spring practices. Looking forward to your evaluations of these teams. So far from what I've seen it's very good info that I'll use for next season.

That was a great point about how the forum loads up with garbage posters during the season, compared to the discussions we have during the off season. You don't have to pick through all the crap and the information that's shared here is valuable... and the guys sharing it really are very familiar with their own regions so the information is often spot on.

By the way GoSooners, did you order your Blue Ribbon for '09 yet? (just kidding)

In case anyone doesn't know about this, at ESPN in the conference blogs, the writers are already evaluating returning starters for each team and also evaluating the '09 schedules for all the teams in each conference blog. That's a great way to start the year. Come spring we'll begin to see who has answers and who has problems in specific areas. Then after that, we find out what is being done about it and by who and how deep.

 

[CoachCB]

I would definitely wait until after NSD and the completion of Spring Practice. Generally there are a few transfers after the spring.....and there are several kids that are early enrollees that are hard to find out about right now (meaning they will be on the Spring roster vs. a hs signee that doesn't enroll until the fall). For example, UF has 6 early enrollees (1 JUCO, 1 kid who signed last year and didn't qualify that went to a prep school - Dee Finley, and 4 true freshman). Without going on each teams Scout.com or Rivals board and asking, I wouldn't really know how to find out how many EE's are at each school.

As far as Nebraska goes, I know they have a very strong walk-on program. Each county in the state has an endowed "academic" scholarship that goes to a Nebraksa walk-on (I read this somewhere a long time ago). However, I thought rosters were capped at 105 players (meaning you can only have 20 walk-ons....to go along w/ 85 sholarship players). There are several schools fielding JV teams (Tennessee had one last year. Jacksonville University, in Jax, FL - which is a 1AA non-scholarship program even has a JV team). So, some of these players could be a part of a JV team....if Nebraska has one. Other than that, I can't figure out how they could have 142 football players......

 

[Conan]

GoSooners: I have never done this Forum thing until this year. You are right if the we were to combine our knowledge, insight, and experience we could do some damage. I had my best year ever last year and I also took a consensus service that proved to me once again that those so called professionals are not any better than we are. My first time was on another forum and somebody had posted that he had heard Mississippi was the play against Florida. I went with it and reaped the benefits. If you get a group who you can count on and pool your info this forum could pay dividends to us all (those who actually listen that is). I will post from time to time with these team breakdowns and try to put in around five a week or so. I have a little trip to Cancun (a business trip haha, so I will be off that week. Other than that I look forward to being a positive contributor and appreciate the encouragement I have received on here.
I told you not to worry about the offensive line. I tell you something is brewing down there in Norman.

Russ, those guys that run the services put their pants on one leg at a time just like you or I do. I think you will find a lot more honest "studies" of their respective teams and conferences here than at any so called sports "service." The big hump to get over is learning to have faith in your own informed judgments above and beyond all the services that get paid to hustle people's money. Once you get over that, nobody will be able to hustle you because you know at least as much if not more than they do and you've proven that to yourself.

This past year I can't tell you how much farther ahead I was at the end compared to just about every service... and how much money I saved myself by investing in my own better judgment compared to making picks based on (blind) faith... ok, I had a good year but I credit that to a lot of intensive studying up on every team and talking with guys here that read up on their conferences as well as I do mine.

I have heard plenty of stories from ex-service "pros" such as throwing darts at a wall blindfolded. Fred hit his last 7 winners in a row that way. For $200 we will tell you what #8 is. Northcoast is hot, no, now they are cold. Should have played their totals instead. Another service had a great November but they flopped on their bowls.... etc. It seems like a crapshoot, not an informed way of playing this sport in a profitable way. And for all your investing of yourself and your money that you laid on the line following their picks, whoopee, you made about what they cost you in the first place... if you are one of the lucky ones.

Stay away. You are just as smart as any of them and you've got friends here that really know what they are talking about too. That's how you win money here every year and the price is right.

 

[russ1945]

Thanks for the encouragement guys. I already posted a couple of things like this on another thread so I am going to try to approach each team the same way and mainly focus on what they have lost and what they return offensively. My main concern will be TD's scored. I will start with Florida. This does not mean I am throwing out place kicking, strength of defense,special teams, turnover pct., etc. I am just working from the point of view of how many points are taking the field with their returnees and using that as a common denominator. After a few breakdowns you will see where I am coming from and be able to make comparisons.

Florida returns 69 from last years roster of 88. The key offensive losses were Harvin to the draft, and seniors Murphy and Moore. They combined for 28 TD's last year. Last year Florida scored 75 TD's. So Florida returns players who accounted for 47 TD's which breaks down to around 24 points a game. In addition they lose their PK to graduation and he was 12/13 on FG's but his longest was only 40 yds. That seems to be replaceable.

Summary: That may be the biggest total loss of scoring I may find in my study. It is hard to imagine that you just casually reload and replace players that productive.
Rating: 24 (the rating merely reflects the number of returning TD's from last year)
Again this is just the first step and later I can factor in signed recruits. If someone is a defensive guru you might break down the defenses.
I am shocked at what Florida has lost on offense. I see LSU and Florida State as their biggest threats and they may wind up playing LSU twice.

 

[russ1945]

I might as well get this one out of the way. I did one on OU on another thread but I spent more time on this so it may differ slightly.

OU returns 92 from last years roster of 108. The only offensive losses were WR's Iglesias and Chaney. They return every player who scored the 45 rushing TD's last year. They return players who scored 39 of last years 51 passing TD's. They return QB (heisman), 3 deep at RB, and AA tight end. Sorry the homer just came out. They return their PK who was 8 of 12 with a longest of 42 yds (room for improvement). So OU returns players who accounted for 42 points a game.

Summary: Offensively if the OL comes through they may be even better next year. With 44 freshman coming back there could be untapped talent in the cupboard. OU could be better than last year but have to get by Texas, Mia Fl in Miami, BYU on a neutral field, Nebraksa at Nebraska, T Tech in Lubbock, and OSU at home. Pretty tough schedule.
Rating; 45 (number of returning points from TD's last year.

Note: Florida's rating of 24 is also based on number returning points from TD's (not TD's as stated in that breakdown.)

 

[CoachCB]

Russ, what are you doing regarding rating each teams defense? UF returns their entire 22 deep on defense......

 

[russ1945]

Russ, what are you doing regarding rating each teams defense? UF returns their entire 22 deep on defense......

I am going to go through and rate offenses first. If someone else wants to rate the defenses they could go ahead and post here. I will address the defenses later if no one else does. When the committments are finalized I will deal with that then. I am not ignoring the defenses but it is much easier to rate the offenses objectively, you have more tangible statistics to work with. It is also easier on me to treat one area at a time as far as accumulating the data goes. I will be putting all of the data together eventually with all facets on one page per team. It will probably take a couple months based on the amount of free time I have. Sorry.
My breakdowns are not intended to influence anyone and anyone can feel free to add or subtract on any time if they find an error. I am mainly trying to refamiliarize myself on one hand and prepare myself for next season on the other. Not scientific but mostly quick references to help me when I compare teams. I also have already had some trouble finding depth charts on many of the teams which is why I think I will walk with this thing before I run. I did a lot a research in graduate school (English Literature) and my experience is to kind of go with the flow and let the data take you where it leads.

 

[russ1945]

I have one ready for Texas

Texas returns 97 from last years roster of 116.
Offenively they lose only Quen Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya.
The players returning accounted for 51 of last years 66 TD's
or about 30 points a game.
The PK returns and went 10 of 12 with a long of 46 yds.
Offensively they should not miss a beat and may be even more prolific.
I said I would address defense later but I should mention that they lose all four DL,a LB, and a CB.
They start off with games against perenial powers Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UCF, UTEP, and Colorado before the OU game in Dallas. They play at OSU. Those two teams are their only apparent obstacles but they are to be reckoned with. They also play at Baylor who surprised everyone last year and gave Missouri all they wanted.
Rating: 30 (number of returning points from TD's last year)

 

[GoSooners]

I have one ready for Texas

Texas returns 97 from last years roster of 116.
Offenively they lose only Quen Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya.
The players returning accounted for 51 of last years 66 TD's
or about 30 points a game.
The PK returns and went 10 of 12 with a long of 46 yds.
Offensively they should not miss a beat and may be even more prolific.
I said I would address defense later but I should mention that they lose all four DL,a LB, and a CB.
They start off with games against perenial powers Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UCF, UTEP, and Colorado before the OU game in Dallas. They play at OSU. Those two teams are their only apparent obstacles but they are to be reckoned with. They also play at Baylor who surprised everyone last year and gave Missouri all they wanted.
Rating: 30 (number of returning points from TD's last year)

Russ....I'm having a hard time buying all of this talk that Texas is going to be better than OU on defense next year. Not with all of those key player losses by the Horns. The only position that is unsettled on defense for OU is the safety position. Austin Box and Reynolds will be back and healthy for OU next year at the linebacker position, which was OU's weak spot this season because of injuries. I think the defense that OU showed in the first half of the Florida game was the defense that we can look forward to seeing next season. I think OU will be at least as good and more than likely much better on that side of the ball. Muschamp will somehow have to get the Texas defense to match us, or as the old saying goes "defense wins championships". This is also why I think Florida will at least repeat as SEC champs next year because of their defense, which loses the least amount of players from their team.

 

[Conan]

Russ....I'm having a hard time buying all of this talk that Texas is going to be better than OU on defense next year. Not with all of those key player losses by the Horns. The only position that is unsettled on defense for OU is the safety position. Austin Box and Reynolds will be back and healthy for OU next year at the linebacker position, which was OU's weak spot this season because of injuries. I think the defense that OU showed in the first half of the Florida game was the defense that we can look forward to seeing next season. I think OU will be at least as good and more than likely much better on that side of the ball. Muschamp will somehow have to get the Texas defense to match us, or as the old saying goes "defense wins championships". This is also why I think Florida will at least repeat as SEC champs next year because of their defense, which loses the least amount of players from their team.

GoSooners,

I am wondering, does OU keep their practices open? I ask because in the spring, information flows unless practices are kept closed. I don't know what Stoop's policy is about that. Just checking around to see what's up... if you know much about this in the B-12.

I do know that most schools have open practice for the media, possibly scouts and alums and girlfriends etc. to attend. Often if they are closed, it's because there are problems a HC may not wish to be aired out. On the WC we are very fortunate because only Stanford this season will be off limits most of the time. Last year UW kept their practices off limits and I would probably have done the same in TW's shoes.

I was thinking about this because the local blogs and newspapers keep up on that stuff and I was thinking about checking up on some teams who are on for a game with a team from out west.

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners,

I am wondering, does OU keep their practices open? I ask because in the spring, information flows unless practices are kept closed. I don't know what Stoop's policy is about that. Just checking around to see what's up... if you know much about this in the B-12.

I do know that most schools have open practice for the media, possibly scouts and alums and girlfriends etc. to attend. Often if they are closed, it's because there are problems a HC may not wish to be aired out. On the WC we are very fortunate because only Stanford this season will be off limits most of the time. Last year UW kept their practices off limits and I would probably have done the same in TW's shoes.

I was thinking about this because the local blogs and newspapers keep up on that stuff and I was thinking about checking up on some teams who are on for a game with a team from out west.

Conan...I'm pretty sure that most of OU's practices are closed. It didn't used to be this way. But in the last couple years Stoops has been pretty secretive on the way he does things. Every once in a while he'll have an open practice for the media. But I'm sure OU runs some pretty vanilla schemes when they are open to the public. I'm not real positive on how they do things at other schools in the Big 12. Seems I recall that overall Gundy was a lot more public on his practices last season at OSU. I tend to find out most of my info from local radio here from the people who are close to these schools. The OU message boards also give me a great deal of info. So i won't be too much in the dark with what's going on with the Sooners and other Big 12 schools.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: I firmly believe that OU will be better next year on both sides of the ball. They have the toughest schedule of any of the true contenders and if they emerge undefeated their strength of schedule would probably rank them first. Florida, Texas, USC, Utah, TCU, Penn St, and Ohio State have an easier road to travel. I have tried to blow my trumpet in a low key kind of way but the more I look at it OU has everything it takes to go all the way. You uncovered that article about the OL and I really already knew that we were better off than most people thought. You are correct in saying that our defense will be improved and I think it will be deeper, especially at LB. Guys like English and McCoy don't come around every day. If they stay healthy while whittling their way through that schedule we will not be the only ones talking about them. I am thumbs up on the Sooners from the get go.

 

[russ1945]

Conan: When I referred to the consensus thing, a friend of mine takes it and copies me. I have been gambling for decades and you are preaching to the choir about "professional" pickers. I just like to monitor them on a casual basis and give their GOY picks a little extra attention and study. I use Pointwise for the week prior stats and last years results (if the teams played the prior year). That is why I am beginning my homework earlier than ever before. I picked up early that some teams were on a mission and the betting lines were going to see more favorites than usual as a lot of teams did whatever they could to gain in the polls. I think favorites pulling like they did last year was unprecidented. I think guys like us who have rode more than one roller coaster in our betting careers have learned that a pick is just a pick. Many years ago a friend of mine called a service and the guy gave him a pick and said "If this game loses I will come to Oklahoma and mow your yard with my face". Of course it lost.

 

[russ1945]

LSU Tigers

LSU returns 62 from last years roster of 80, that includes DE Jean-Francois to the draft. Offensively the lost only Quinn Johnson FB who acounted for only 3 TD's.
They return players who scored 44 of last years 47 TD's. They return two QB's Lee and Jefferson who emerged in the bowl game. Offensively they can be expected to improve since Lee was hot and cold last year and Jefferson opens up the offense more. They only scored a meager 20 TD's through the air last year so they can easily improve on that.
They lose their PK Colt David who was 16 of 21 with a long of 53 yds - he will not be easily replaced. They also lose their punter.
They play Florida at Florida but get Geo, Ala, and Miss at home and finish off the season with GT at GT. They could win their div. and play Florida twice setting up a possible knock out scenario if Florida goes into that game undefeated. Those Conference championships are so dumb.

 

[russ1945]

UTAH

This is one surprised me.

Utah returns 94 from last years roster of 114. Now get ready for this.
They lose their QB, second leading rusher, top three receivers, place kicker and a DB to the draft. No wonder they whined so loud. Wow.
They return players who accounted for only 26 of 53 TD's for a whopping 13 points a game. That is discounting the fact that the guy threw 27 TD passes is gone. Their PK was 22 of 24 with a long of 53 (NFL material) and will be sorely missed. In other words they shot their wad last year.
Their schedule this year includes at Oregon, at TCU, and at BYU. Ouch!
They have redfined the term rebuild much less reload. Bodes bad in Utah.
Like I said I am not dealing with Defenses right now but how good can they be to compensate for what they have lost. Still the general public may ride them till they wise up.

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners: I firmly believe that OU will be better next year on both sides of the ball. They have the toughest schedule of any of the true contenders and if they emerge undefeated their strength of schedule would probably rank them first. Florida, Texas, USC, Utah, TCU, Penn St, and Ohio State have an easier road to travel. I have tried to blow my trumpet in a low key kind of way but the more I look at it OU has everything it takes to go all the way. You uncovered that article about the OL and I really already knew that we were better off than most people thought. You are correct in saying that our defense will be improved and I think it will be deeper, especially at LB. Guys like English and McCoy don't come around every day. If they stay healthy while whittling their way through that schedule we will not be the only ones talking about them. I am thumbs up on the Sooners from the get go.

One thing is for sure, OU will be more battle tested next season. And this should go a long ways for them in making their tough road trips. Like I said, the O-Line will be a question mark early on. It will improve as the season goes. So barring injuries, if we get by the tough early games we should be in pretty good shape by the time we get to Texas. The 2009 OU schedule was finalized today. The OOC games will be BYU in Arlington, Tx. (good recruiting trip for Stoops), Idaho St., Tulsa and at Miami. All I can say is OU better do it next year. I don't think they'll get another chance for awhile. With all of the players he loses after 2009, Stoops will have to do a miracle recruiting job. The 2010 class will have to be like no other before for OU to compete. So far, although it's adequate, by OU standards I really don't like this 2009 recruiting class that much. Also, something that Stoops used to do that he hasn't been able to do for the last couple years is recruit speed. He used to get those 4.3-4.4 athletes. And now he either has decided that speed over size isn't a priority, or he's just getting beat on the recruiting trail.. If you compare the skill players that Stoops is getting to what somebody like an Urban Meyer is getting we're talking about 4.5 speed compared to 4.3-4.4. This doesn't seem like a lot to most people. But in reality this is HUGE. Look at the OU/Florida game and you'll see what a difference that 2 tenths worth of speed meant with Percy Harvin breaking the game open on a couple long runs in the second half. With defensive players using the right cutoff angles, that kind of speed can be slowed down. And for the most part OU did a decent job for 30 minutes. But it can never be stopped because the Gators have too much overall team speed. This is the kind of speed that OU used to have on defense. Although by any other standards from the other college powers around the country, OU is very comparable, the thing that sets Florida apart from everybody else at the moment is their team speed. Les Miles is also recruiting a lot of team speed that is pretty comparable with Florida. So if anybody is going to be a thorn in Florida's side in the next few years it's probably going to be LSU.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners:

I know you are on a radio silence for a while but I had the radio on the Animal coming home today. Loadholt is not doing well and getting beaten
regularly by the speed rushers. He is looking like a 3rd or 4th round pick.
Robinson is 2nd round maybe and I still say the penalties he got against Florida were red flags to the scouts who were watching that game like a hawk.
I am well aware of and appreciate how effective speed is. You can't coach it and that is the problem. If you can't coach it it is just speed.
Harvin was "the Man". He rushed, he caught passes, he returned kicks, hell he was probably in the band. They are losing their top two receivers who represent 28 touchdowns. Because of the emphasis on Tebow and Urban and all of the intangibles like reload and team speed people are deflecting how much they really lost. We are deeper at skilled positions, especially running back, and if Florida had a schedule like OU's their weaknesses would surface right off. I know I am preaching to the choir I think OU is not a sleeping Giant, they are alive and well. If it were not for OU's schedule, which is probably the toughest of any preseason top ten team, you have to concede that if they make it through undefeated they are in. Are they a shoe in, hell no. Is it within the realm of possibility, hell yes. We will sorely miss our center because he was the captain of that line and called out adjustments. But I would rather replace three lineman based on the article you put on here, than ass-ume that Florida is going to simply reload what they lost (28 TD's). I know defense wins championships. We will be better, and that could be good enough.