LOCO'$ 2011 CFB Futures

[PabloLoco]

I am going to post all my futures in this thread. I will be adding up until the first game of the season.

Have been on this one for a long time.....

2* Virgina Tech +3500 to win BCS Championship Game

This play is mostly about schedule. Their Non-Conf is a joke and their ACC sched breaks down nicely in their favor.

10/1- Clemson- 80% W
10/8- The U (or whats left of it)-W
10/15- @Wake Forest- W
10/22- Boston College-W
10/29-@Duke- W
11/10-@Georgia Tech- Thursday night game, could be the only cog in the schedule, but they do have a BYE week to get focused and prepare for the triple option which is a HUGEEEEE neutralizer. - 65% W

11/17- UNC- 75% W- UNC could cause problems, but i expect a win here
11/26- UVA- 90% W- UVA will be SALTY this year, prob just bowl eligible salty though

Then the ACC championship game should be vs FSU. I think these teams match up fairly evenly in the preseason, with the edge in the OFF/DEF lines going to Va Tech.

I think Va Tech could win that game and if they do then i have a great hedge opp if they get in the BCS game.

Va Tech has been known to drop one they shouldn't, so if this bet loses i wouldn't be surprised.

At those odds, its worth a small wager.

Good Luck this season

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Certainly not a bad choice, although I believe that Va. Tech is no comppetition for Florida State.

 

[PabloLoco]

Certainly not a bad choice, although I believe that Va. Tech is no comppetition for Florida State.

Thanks, but i do disagree with that. I broke down the units in this way

QB: Slight edge FSU, not much 60/40. Logan Thomas has been getting RAVE reviews though so this could change
RB: FSU
WR: Va Tech
OL: Va Tech HUGE. One of the best in the country
DL: FSU
LB: Va Tech
DB: Va Tech

So overall fairly even to me...

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I give Florida State a big edge in DB's. They return all four starters. I also give Florida State a much bigger edge in QB's. I do not listen to pre-season rave reviews made by people associated with the Universities programs. I also think that Va. Tech's edge in the OL is just that. An edge. I do not believe that they are anywheres close to the best OL units in the nation. They pale by comparison to Alabama, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Iowa, Stanford, and even Boise State, to name a few. I also give Florida State the edge in chaching. Beamer is an excellent coacch, but he just cannot get his team over the top. They always lose a game at home, for some reason. His offense also tends to become rather predictable. Last season, Va. Tech only threw the ball about 36% of the time.

 

[gynecologist]

Pablo you are a good college football contributor..

 

[cloverleaf]

The ACC is really a two team top tier league. VT and FSU are the class of the conference.

My take on these two teams...I learned the hard way not to go against Beamer and Bud Foster. How they do it year in and year out is special.

I have doubted Jimbo at FSU and so far he has proven me wrong. Still, I will take the proven coach with one hell of a defensive coordinator.

 

[gynecologist]

I think the ACC is a very weak conference..

 

[PabloLoco]

Pablo you are a good college football contributor..

Thanks, i appreciate that!

 

[PabloLoco]

The ACC is really a two team top tier league. VT and FSU are the class of the conference.

My take on these two teams...I learned the hard way not to go against Beamer and Bud Foster. How they do it year in and year out is special.

I have doubted Jimbo at FSU and so far he has proven me wrong. Still, I will take the proven coach with one hell of a defensive coordinator.

Fisher and Stoops have it going on at FSU, but i think the hype is in full force.

Between the two, Va Tech's schedule just presents soooooooo much more value than FSU and i think they are overall equal.

Easy decision for me and hopefully will be looking at a hedge opp

 

[PabloLoco]

Here is another play

2* Utah +250 to win PAC 12 South Division (USC excluded)

With USC being ineligible, the Arizona schools racking up injuries, and UCLA and Colorado just not being good, this was a bet i found had a great opportunity to cash.

The pivotal game in this division could be when Arizona St travels to Utah- home field advantage is always a plus. Not to mention they do NOT play Oregon OR Stanford, the best two teams in the conference.

I am concerned about their transition into the PAC 12 conference, but if you match up the PAC 10 v MTW last year, the level of play every week wasn't EXTREMELY far off.

I like what this team returns, but this play is mostly about the schedules and injury facing Arizona and Arizona St, plus USC being ineligible.

 

[PabloLoco]

This will probably be my only wasteful shot in the dark pick in this aspect. There are a lot of good angles here that make this bet worth a small wager for me and I'll explain a little why.



1* Michigan +15000 to win the BCS Championship

Before you throw stones, i understand this bet is probably a little far fetched not going to happen. Here is why i find value in this wager.

1. Brady Hoke- I honestly expect this guy to turn this program around quick. He has a lot of talent to work with, especially on offense. Im putting a lot of faith in him with this bet.

2. Denard Robinson-Easily the most electrifying player in the conference and, yes, HE CAN PASS THE BALL EFFICIENTLY. I think he's going to be even more dangerous in Hoke's offense.

3. Schedule: They avoid Wisconsin and get Notre Dame (bad defense) and Ohio State, and Nebraska at home late in the season. Late in the season is key for their defense to have time to improve under Hoke and the new regime before they play their hardest competition. The Notre Dame game early is very winnable at home given Notre Dame's defense could be just as bad as Michigans.

As for their road games:

Northwestern- Once again, this defense is paper mache in the secondary which plays into Michigan's strength. Easily a winnable game for big blue.

Michigan St- There is no way to slice it and dice it, this will probably be their toughest task. Im hoping Mich St was a bit of a mirage last year. If they can get this one they are in good shape.

Iowa- who knows that this team will be like this year. They lost Stanzi and return only 8 starters total. They are very good at home, but this is a winnable game.

Illinois- Remember last years shootout? Could be the same thing, but i expect Michigan's defense to be a lot better. Another tough but easily winnable game for Michigan.

Overall the Big 10 is tough as shit this season, but i like the way the schedule sets up with a lot of very manageable games on the road for Michigan this season.



Basically this is a long shot for good reason, BUT i think if things go right, this bet could either get interesting or im going to look like a fool.

At 150-1 I will take a shot.......

 

[easy_money]

I agree with you about Michigan.. They are going to turn some heads this year but they are not national title contenders... There is a little value in it though and you never know

 

[PabloLoco]

I agree with you about Michigan.. They are going to turn some heads this year but they are not national title contenders... There is a little value in it though and you never know

I think they will turn some heads too. The odds are attractive being that high, which is why its probably a suckers bet. LOL

But really they are loaded with talent and need some good coaching, schedule breaks nicely, so why the hell not.

Auburn 2.0? I hope....

 

[PabloLoco]

Starting to finalize some of these Season Win Totals, here are the first two off the board....

5* Boston College Under 6.5 wins
3* Georgia Tech Over 6 wins

-Boston College has one of the toughest schedules in the ACC and that includes its NON-Conf games as well. Their final 7 games are a burtal stretch for them going @Clemson, @Va Tech, @Maryland, FSU, NC State, @Notre Dame, @Miami (or whatever is left of it). Not to mention they host Northwestern and travel @UCF. Nine total games against bowl teams and six of them on the road. I might chunk a couple more units on this. I cant see 7 wins with this team by any means as they are not talented enough to sustain that type of run and really put Wins on the board.

-Georgia Tech is at worst a push to me as i see this team going bowling. Their defense should be vastly improved in its 2nd season under Groh and it would be damn near impossible for the offense to have as many turnovers as it did last season (i hope). Im a big believer in Paul Johnson and they should get off ott at least a 3-0 if not 4-0 start.


More to come

 

[PabloLoco]

two more win totals played this morning

3* Mizzou Over 7.5 wins
3* Texas Tech Over 7 wins

-Mizzou This team is flying under the radar in the Big 12, mainly because they are bringing in a new QB in Franklin who should be able to step in and ball right away. They also have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. Schedule wise they face 3 tough road challenges @Arizona St, @A&M, @OU. I honestly think they will beat Arizona State but even if they dont they still get Texas, Texas Tech, OK St at home. This is easily an 8 win team imo and could even sniff 10 wins.

-Texas Tech Tuberville's boys should be much improved in year two after an awkward transition in year one. I think 7 wins is a push at worst. They have a real oppurtunity to start out 5-1 or even 6-0 if they can upset the Aggies in Lubbock. They also get Iowa St in Lubbock and Baylor at a neutral site in Dallas, both project as wins. Games at OU, Texas, and Mizzou are most likely losses, but i think 7 wins is the minimum for this team.


Have about 5-6 more win totals im looking at and conference futures as well...Good Luck

 

[BigdaddyQH]

T-Tech over 7 is really questionable. I can see losses to A&M, at OU, at Texas, Oklahoma State, and at Missouri. That leaves little room for error.

 

[PabloLoco]

T-Tech over 7 is really questionable. I can see losses to A&M, at OU, at Texas, Oklahoma State, and at Missouri. That leaves little room for error.

i understand what youre saying, while i strongly think 7 wins is a minimum, i am getting +140 on Over 7 wins, so there is a little extra incentive there for the risk. I would be absolutely shocked if they end up with only 6 wins.

Thats my thinking on this....

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Well we know that T-Tech plays a very soft non-con schedule, so there are 3 wins right there. At, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State should be 3 more. So your entire wager may come down to the Baylor game in Dallas.

Missouri over 7.5 looks a lot more promising. Wins vs Miami (Oh), Western Illinois, Iowa State, and Kansas should be a certainty. The game at K. State whould be a win. They get Texas and T-Tech at home. The game at Arizona State should tell a lot about how good Mizzou is.

 

[PabloLoco]

Well we know that T-Tech plays a very soft non-con schedule, so there are 3 wins right there. At, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State should be 3 more. So your entire wager may come down to the Baylor game in Dallas.

Missouri over 7.5 looks a lot more promising. Wins vs Miami (Oh), Western Illinois, Iowa State, and Kansas should be a certainty. The game at K. State whould be a win. They get Texas and T-Tech at home. The game at Arizona State should tell a lot about how good Mizzou is.

The Texas Tech wager could come down to that but i think theyre going to get an upset in at home, probably over A&M.....

 

[PabloLoco]

Here are a few more win total wagers

3* USC Over 7.5 wins
3* UCLA Under 6 wins

Will post the write ups for these later after i have my coffee....

Also, have a few conference futures coming up.

Good Luck