Stats can be skewed any way you want them to look so just look at the black and white. All that matters is performance, right? In sports betting all one needs is a 52.4% or 53% to be profitable (taking into account for -110 vigorish or eleven divided by 21). Now when none of you seem to take into account is this math workable, not account for ‘cherry picking’. There are certainly better picks than others thats all about me[HarryTheHat]. If one limits oneself to cherry picking the highest odds of willing games based on probability as a function of information it’s definately possible to pick 70%,thats our group goal. Winning at sports betting is “all in the numbers, all in the timing.“The secret is patience. You always have the action. But you need to pick your spots. You need to exercise self-control.” I am very selective with my plays. I research the entire card finding the play that that has best chance of winning my bet. The most important rule to sports betting rule to bet 5% or less of your current total bankroll at all times. Pressing a win play one time on the following game pick is a must. I probably leaned more about point spreads and money lines from some great old school sports betters like late Bob Martin and System Smitty Ryann Jr.& J.J. Bascus power rating also with our crew . A rule of thought "follow the money. "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. My ability to pick winners consistently is second to none and with Bob Martins money management system.
The NFL tries to promote parity with weighted strength of schedule, but does it always work? The 2014 schedule has is quirks,in large part because some divisions are significantly stronger than others.This not only affects a team mandated six divisional games, but also can impact non- divisional opponents, who are determined by annual rotating system.[the AFC East for example,faces selected teams from NFC West and AFC south this season]
My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. I use J.J. Bascus power point rating[is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record]. I live in Vegas so there shopping around for point spreads and money lines in varus sports books in town. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/oroutcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term. I have been diligent in my philosophy in betting the NFL season.
PS ....SaintsFan1977 & Grindstone30... These two fine gentlemen in my opinion as Stand Up Guys gave me a very warm welcome here on RX, about two weeks before NFL season started last year when I was checking out the site, and thinking about joining RX. Bee Bee Black Widow also has some friends that check out this site periodically, I don't know if they are members or not? Thought be a good idea to post our picks here, so they could check it out. I talked to J.J. Bascus about posting his power rating on this site. He said it would be his pleasure. Why not every body and their grandmothers post his rating all over the web and using there affiliated names as their power rating. J.J. does not really care because its all about us in our group that matters. His rating is free always will be!!! We are NFL gamblers that handicappers. I also asked System Smitty Ryan and Back Room Benny The Jew [ which I stated in prior threads here about us] They have no problem with posting there picks on RX. They all want me post the threads of our predictions because of my ability with my lab top computer experties//LOL/LOL/LOL.. If I stay sober enough having cocktails at the grand piano[ sports book]LOL!!LOL!!LOL!!! Just kidding of course!! LOL !! So RX members this is how it all started last year on Rx sports forum. Believe me we as a group had one of our best years last season in NFL picks and bets, Maybe we can all win together? ~Thank you for your reply and feedback its always welcome.
Thank You From Hårr¥THëHÄT~ And Our Group~
The NFL tries to promote parity with weighted strength of schedule, but does it always work? The 2014 schedule has is quirks,in large part because some divisions are significantly stronger than others.This not only affects a team mandated six divisional games, but also can impact non- divisional opponents, who are determined by annual rotating system.[the AFC East for example,faces selected teams from NFC West and AFC south this season]
My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. I use J.J. Bascus power point rating[is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record]. I live in Vegas so there shopping around for point spreads and money lines in varus sports books in town. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/oroutcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term. I have been diligent in my philosophy in betting the NFL season.
PS ....SaintsFan1977 & Grindstone30... These two fine gentlemen in my opinion as Stand Up Guys gave me a very warm welcome here on RX, about two weeks before NFL season started last year when I was checking out the site, and thinking about joining RX. Bee Bee Black Widow also has some friends that check out this site periodically, I don't know if they are members or not? Thought be a good idea to post our picks here, so they could check it out. I talked to J.J. Bascus about posting his power rating on this site. He said it would be his pleasure. Why not every body and their grandmothers post his rating all over the web and using there affiliated names as their power rating. J.J. does not really care because its all about us in our group that matters. His rating is free always will be!!! We are NFL gamblers that handicappers. I also asked System Smitty Ryan and Back Room Benny The Jew [ which I stated in prior threads here about us] They have no problem with posting there picks on RX. They all want me post the threads of our predictions because of my ability with my lab top computer experties//LOL/LOL/LOL.. If I stay sober enough having cocktails at the grand piano[ sports book]LOL!!LOL!!LOL!!! Just kidding of course!! LOL !! So RX members this is how it all started last year on Rx sports forum. Believe me we as a group had one of our best years last season in NFL picks and bets, Maybe we can all win together? ~Thank you for your reply and feedback its always welcome.
Thank You From Hårr¥THëHÄT~ And Our Group~
