Red Eye,
I know that you will be in Las Vegas for March madness as usual. How many games would you say We win because of line shopping instead of just betting with one book just during the first 2 rounds ?
I have never been to a March madness that I didn't win at least 3 games because of shopping. What's your guess ? I have never heard of a serious handicapper that doesn't express the need to shop !
I know that you will be in Las Vegas for March madness as usual. How many games would you say We win because of line shopping instead of just betting with one book just during the first 2 rounds ?
I have never been to a March madness that I didn't win at least 3 games because of shopping. What's your guess ? I have never heard of a serious handicapper that doesn't express the need to shop !
Somewhere in the middle here lies the truth. J to the motha fuggin J is getting a rise out of many and of course you would be foolish to blindly take whatever number your one book offers you, but there is a valid point he makes about knowing which way the number is moving and getting the best of it. I think having 20 accounts these days is rather pointless and feel that having a handful (3-5?) of books with different discounts, specials and promos would serve 99% of the players more than fine.
utter drivel
To say that you need to beat the closing number is utter drivel.
Many of my best bets are 5 minutes before game time. If I am confident that the dog is the side to be on and that there is likely to be mug betting on the fav, I can't see the point in taking that opening line of, let's say +6.5.
Why not wait until 5 minutes before kick-off when the line is almost certain to be closing somewhere at +7.5 or even +8 ?
The only requirement for consistent winning is to place bets at better odds than the true value of those bets. The main requirement to achieve that is to have better information, or be better at analysing available information, than the majority of the betting public.
Line shopping enables you to wring out that extra 1 or 2% profit. I personally would never have just one book - for one thing, at any given moment there is a good chance that at least 1 of the 30 or so books I use will be having server downtime, site maintenance and so on.
Some books are very strong and more or less unbeatable on some sports. But on others they appear to have hired a guy fresh out of diapers to set their lines. With all the books I have, I am able to bet against a guy fresh out of school in every sport I bet on. Why would anyone want to place most of their bets aaginst a sharp guy when by opening up more accounts they can place most of their bets against a relatively clueless line setter?
To say that you need to beat the closing number is utter drivel.
Many of my best bets are 5 minutes before game time. If I am confident that the dog is the side to be on and that there is likely to be mug betting on the fav, I can't see the point in taking that opening line of, let's say +6.5.
Why not wait until 5 minutes before kick-off when the line is almost certain to be closing somewhere at +7.5 or even +8 ?
The only requirement for consistent winning is to place bets at better odds than the true value of those bets. The main requirement to achieve that is to have better information, or be better at analysing available information, than the majority of the betting public.
Line shopping enables you to wring out that extra 1 or 2% profit. I personally would never have just one book - for one thing, at any given moment there is a good chance that at least 1 of the 30 or so books I use will be having server downtime, site maintenance and so on.
Some books are very strong and more or less unbeatable on some sports. But on others they appear to have hired a guy fresh out of diapers to set their lines. With all the books I have, I am able to bet against a guy fresh out of school in every sport I bet on. Why would anyone want to place most of their bets aaginst a sharp guy when by opening up more accounts they can place most of their bets against a relatively clueless line setter?
Well i know one good friend who never shops lines .............if he comes up with a push on any game be it at 3 or 7 or 10 or 14 he just buys the half point both ways and wins two bets. BUT after doing this for years he saw that the amount of Games where it occured was too small
seems that he found the redskins to be worse at pushes than all other teams on the 3 pt spread.
SO he foucuses on them when laying 3 or taking 3 but now with new HC's and everything again figure redskins to stink it up again maybe win 5 or 6 games as per word i got from friend. I agree what others said timing is everything placing bet on a dog early is best beacuse many times i saw lines drop later 1.5 - 2 1/2 pts. Favorites best to wait on because when joe n jane public pop them your always going to lay more points on game day then you go dog ......
However to dispell the spreads fact as per actual tracking of my good buddy over 12 years in NFL the average % of time when the spread losses is 19.5 % of the time that is favorite pushes or wins by less than spread.
Best way to win at NFL is to fade the teams who waxed the vegas odds last year like 10- 6 ATS and 12-4 ATS or 11-5 ats
they always seem to adjust quickly on these teams if you look at previous years lines compare to this years you will see more points.
seems that he found the redskins to be worse at pushes than all other teams on the 3 pt spread.
SO he foucuses on them when laying 3 or taking 3 but now with new HC's and everything again figure redskins to stink it up again maybe win 5 or 6 games as per word i got from friend. I agree what others said timing is everything placing bet on a dog early is best beacuse many times i saw lines drop later 1.5 - 2 1/2 pts. Favorites best to wait on because when joe n jane public pop them your always going to lay more points on game day then you go dog ......
However to dispell the spreads fact as per actual tracking of my good buddy over 12 years in NFL the average % of time when the spread losses is 19.5 % of the time that is favorite pushes or wins by less than spread.
Best way to win at NFL is to fade the teams who waxed the vegas odds last year like 10- 6 ATS and 12-4 ATS or 11-5 ats
they always seem to adjust quickly on these teams if you look at previous years lines compare to this years you will see more points.
Line shopping helps because it helps you win more and lose less.
However, if the opening lines are really sharp, it will create a situation where all bets are -EV due to commission.
So one must be able to identify which opportunities are way off and profit because bookmaker made a judgement which is far off from true value.
However, if the opening lines are really sharp, it will create a situation where all bets are -EV due to commission.
So one must be able to identify which opportunities are way off and profit because bookmaker made a judgement which is far off from true value.
