Line moves

[ShinySuitMan]

Just in response to OccamRazor question on totals the other day. I believe books have been making false market moves in the wrong direction to lure in the public. Squares see the line move too much one way and will play down on the total while sharps hit the correct side. I gave Boston as an example, wasn't really a great example so here is others in past few days.

Minny at Houston 29th March

Line opened 177.5 which to most seemed excessively high for two teams with realitive good D and pounded the under into 173.5 failing to realise that Houston had played alot of games lately and was pretty tired. the over hit

Phoenix at Spurs March 27th

Total opened 184.5 which appeared at face value to be low because of Suns recent high scoring and lack of D, rose to 186.5 where i proceeded to play the under. nice hit.

seattle at Portland March 27th

Total opened 183.5 quickly taken by the public to 180, snapped up at 180 on the over. went into OT was not needed as two passed the total in the 4th.

Phoenix at Cavs March 23rd

Line opened 197.5 public liking the over upto 200.5, under secured easily thanks to no J-Mac and Lebron still suffering illness.

Just a few examples of real bad moves by so called wiseguys/ and or public. I really have doubts over who these wiseguys actually are, if there in fact there is any at all! I might get flamed for that so i regress there must be some wiseguys somewhere, so are they the same guys who played these lines or is it something else?
Have bookies been moving these lines to bait, or is the public so dumb they drove these lines high for the sharps?

Whats everyones thought on this

 

[Fishhead]

Good observations.

 

[OccamsRazor]

I had originally asked the question regarding line movements because I've always harbored a strong suspicion that the linesmaker is moving the line to bait those that ultimatley base their wager on line movements. The baiting angle made sense to me when I see the so called sharp/wise money moves lose more often that the perceived public money moves!.

I had the same thought as you Shinny,"Are there sharp/wise guys out there betting solely on money moves, cause if there is they are always getting killed."

The money-move field is so unstable and filled with some many subjective interpretations that one is better off Capping the game and leaving the money-move angle to those that believe in the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

The thing I always think of when I hear people betting on money moves is that the books would get killed if the line moved solely based upon public betting. I would think they would have to build in "false line moves" in order to prevent people from betting on line moves alone.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Excellent point biggames.

 

[rscl31]

Earlier in the season, playing the line moves was very profitable for myself. However, midway through it became exact opposite. Not sure what this means but in most sports, the beginning of the season is more profitable in terms of line moves.

 

[BlackampGold]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by rscl31:
Earlier in the season, playing the line moves was very profitable for myself. However, midway through it became exact opposite. Not sure what this means but in most sports, the beginning of the season is more profitable in terms of line moves.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Yes - I notice the exact same thing. It really applied to hockey this year.

 

[ShinySuitMan]

Thanks everyone for comments, it's just something i noticed happening alot, I'm
glad I am not the only one who has seen this!

I agree OR, i always cap, base an opinion on a total and watch what happens. I always bet late, which sometimes works against me, thats a whole diferent story lol! If a line moves big in opposite way to my opinion i become interested and watch what develops, but if a line moves away from me too much i pass or look at the game again to try and seek 'value'.

I also agree rscl31 that line moves early were profitable. What happened? Books developed sharper lines, when the numbers come in after 10-15 games, noted team trends. With the addition of bait line moves they really had the ammo to go after the public and get any money they had lost early to sharps.

I dont really doubt there is wiseguys, I have asked myself though and now here if in fact there is as many as we are made to believe.

I really don't think you can make money longterm just betting line moves. More then likely you would be betting into bad numbers too much.

BigGames good point! Here's the thing. If books really move a line 3 points or more they know people will follow the leader, without having any real opinion. Players get caught up in the moment. You can't afford to do that.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i know the line movement in football works after the 3rd week thru the 15th week.

i know it works cause i have made a small fortune on it.

but only on sides and must be 3 point swing.

 

[ATX]

public moves lines in football

in pro baskets not nearly as much

 

[truelyhandicapping]

so who moves it in bb.

 

[ATX]

bw and other sharp money who are better at lining games than books

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I agree with ATX. Generally the line moves in hoops are much sharper than in football.

GP

 

[1cheater]

All this talk after the fact is merely hearsay..It does not help anyone

I would like to start a thread every night (Line moves pending?), when I can (if I can't someone else can) I think it would serve us all well if we ALL posted VERY STRONG feelings of a enniment line move, before it happens. If we all work hard in this thread and cap are asses off looking for strong moves (wise moves) we could make a killing...

Now I know it will be hard and I would like to restrict it to ONLY those who state thier FACTS in great detail PROVING they capped the game and did their hokmework to post in the thread... Post somthing like Port +5 will most certianly move to 7 is not acceptable...


This could be a gold mine thread, what do you guys think?

 

[ATX]

sharp books BET

their lines can reflect this

if they OVERbet a game

they can shade their lines to reflect this, to minimize their position

and can be done with worse (for others) lines, so middles are possible thru their booking stances as well

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

Maybe we should document the ATS of going AGAINST line movements.

 

[ATX]

I know a guy that bets that way

was good a year ago

not so good this year

it's very hard to figure out what is really going on ALL THE TIME with booking

this is why it is so important to evaluate the actual number as well as read from line differences at the various shops

 

[ShinySuitMan]

Cheater,

Thread like that would be great, not sure though how strongly i could contribute to it because most of what i do is on instinct and leans. I do alot of looking into games but i try not to spend to much time looking at it cause it
bleeps with my brain otherwise. I also bet late. But i could give leans thats the best i could do. Great idea I am sure alot of people would contribute and it could be of benifit to all.

ATX makes a good point that things change with books all the time, in general things change daily. All you can do is notice whats going on at the time and adjust, but as you do something else will start happening.It's extremely hard to track trends and follow them for long cause it's ever changing.