I see what you are saying, had cincy won the line would likely have stayed close to 7 or 7.5, but with the cincy loss it moved to 5.5...
Would have been some good forecating in retrospect (hindsight is 20/20) to play Pitt large early & buyback with Balt if posible...
Didnt hit anyway so no regrets...
Would have been some good forecating in retrospect (hindsight is 20/20) to play Pitt large early & buyback with Balt if posible...
Didnt hit anyway so no regrets...
General,
The theory is that the line before the cincy game starts would be a weighted average of the line assuming Denver uses all its starters and the line assuming they rest some, where the weights are the winning probabilities of the 2 teams in the cincy game. If betting were allowed on denver during the cincy game, then the line would look like an interactive betting line, but since that requires a lot of attention on the part of the bookies, most choose to just take it off until the game is over. If cincy had won the line would probably have moved the other way a bit.
I'm not sure if this is how it actually works but if it did work this way there would be no arbitrage opportunities. And since it is very important for bookies not to allow arbitrage opportunities I am assuming it actually does work this way.
The theory is that the line before the cincy game starts would be a weighted average of the line assuming Denver uses all its starters and the line assuming they rest some, where the weights are the winning probabilities of the 2 teams in the cincy game. If betting were allowed on denver during the cincy game, then the line would look like an interactive betting line, but since that requires a lot of attention on the part of the bookies, most choose to just take it off until the game is over. If cincy had won the line would probably have moved the other way a bit.
I'm not sure if this is how it actually works but if it did work this way there would be no arbitrage opportunities. And since it is very important for bookies not to allow arbitrage opportunities I am assuming it actually does work this way.
Darryl you are very intellegent man. What you are doing over there in Budapest if you do not mind me asking. Are you from there originally. A good friend said this to me Sunday and it got me to start thinking. He say to me, "hey I wonder if he books were taking if bets". I did not try.I would think that some bettors would have been able to slip an if win bet through. Good idea no?
