- Pitt is battle-tested and can handle the pressure of playing a No. 1 well. The other time they played the top-ranked team this season, only a buzzer beater prayer by Syracuse beat them. Other than that, they lost by only 3 both times against Virginia and by 5 at Syracuse back in January. Those outcomes are ancient history by now...but I believe Pitt is a little underrated as a No. 9 seed. Colorado wasn't as terrible as the score would indicate. Pitt's outstanding play just made them look that bad.
- Yeah, but that game against Syracuse came at home, right? Well, Pitt is playing its best basketball of the season right now...having won six of their last eight, and all six of those wins came away from home. Florida has looked somewhat lethargic for four straight. They've shown a bad habit of letting opponents crawl back into games late. Two teams really going in different directions as far as form is concerned. Florida hasn't had many convincing performances against strong teams during their long winning streak. Kentucky came all the way back from 15 down with 10 mins to go in the SEC title game. If they Gators keep doing that, it's going to bite them in the ass...maybe even tomorrow. Why? Because in its three potseason wins, the Panthers had runs of 25-6 against Wake Forest, 17-1 against UNC and a 13-0 run to start the game against Colorado. They know they are always in games regardless of the score.
- This is the most key stat IMO: The Gators are 21-0 this season when they shoot a higher percentage from three-pt range than their opponent. They're 9-0 when shooting 40% or better from deep. In the postseason, Pitt has held all four opponents below 30%. They're stepping up their perimeter D at the right time. Even if Pitt has a mediocre day from deep, that could be good enough.
$2k on Pitt +5.5, $1k on the +215 ML for me.
- Yeah, but that game against Syracuse came at home, right? Well, Pitt is playing its best basketball of the season right now...having won six of their last eight, and all six of those wins came away from home. Florida has looked somewhat lethargic for four straight. They've shown a bad habit of letting opponents crawl back into games late. Two teams really going in different directions as far as form is concerned. Florida hasn't had many convincing performances against strong teams during their long winning streak. Kentucky came all the way back from 15 down with 10 mins to go in the SEC title game. If they Gators keep doing that, it's going to bite them in the ass...maybe even tomorrow. Why? Because in its three potseason wins, the Panthers had runs of 25-6 against Wake Forest, 17-1 against UNC and a 13-0 run to start the game against Colorado. They know they are always in games regardless of the score.
- This is the most key stat IMO: The Gators are 21-0 this season when they shoot a higher percentage from three-pt range than their opponent. They're 9-0 when shooting 40% or better from deep. In the postseason, Pitt has held all four opponents below 30%. They're stepping up their perimeter D at the right time. Even if Pitt has a mediocre day from deep, that could be good enough.
$2k on Pitt +5.5, $1k on the +215 ML for me.
