Lets pad that pocketbook week 4 (26-14-3 +25.8U YTD)

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week 1: 14-5-3 +21U
week 2: 5-8 -8.2U
week 3: 7-1 +13U

26-14-3 +25.8U YTD

Week 4

3U Clemson U50'

FSU's defense is one of the best in the country. They gave OU a run for their money and played them better than any other team I've seen in a while. FSU will be without 4 of it's top 5 WRs and Manuel is a little banged up with what appears to be a bruised (non-throwing) shoulder. I expect Death Valley to be rockin' Saturday afternoon. I think the noise level will make it hard for the Seminole offense to get into any kind of rhythm. These new WRs for FSU havent been into an environment like Death Valley, they will have their hands full. I expect FSU to try and establish the run to take pressure off the new WRs and take the crowd out of it. If the Seminoles have any chance of winning this game, it starts with defense.
 

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Congrats on a huge week Stop, I really think FSU has a great shot at dominating up front here defensively. They have enough depth to limit the effectiveness of Clemson's quick play calling speed and should be keep the tempo relatively under control. They will really need to get consistent pressure on Boyd to be successful, but I think they can make him struggle as this is a MASSIVE step up in defensive class for Clemson compared to what they have seen. Historically these are the games where Clemson has a hard time and I think you found a good match-up. My only concern is that I don't like the Tiger defense all that much, but like you said FSU is pretty banged up and may be very one-dimensional (with an O-line that has struggled). I lean this way too, but will late until later in the week as my feeling is that this number will go up. Good luck bud.
 

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Playing OU last week will be the best prelude to playing Clemson's 'fast' paced offense. OU goes balls to the wall for the entire game, Clemson will seem like slow motion in comparison.
 

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1U BYU O43

UCF has played a bunch of nobodies with the exception of FIU and they should have lost that game by more than 7. Carroll threw for 127 yards, nothing special, but also gave up a total of 107 yards on the ground. This will be the best passing offense UCF has seen this year and it comes on the road. BYU's passing offense is ranked 43rd (FIU's, 88th) in the nation and thats against the likes of Ole Miss, Texas, and Utah who are ranked 28, 16, and 96 respectively in pass defense. Heaps threw for 225 yards and 192 yards against Ole Miss and Texas. People only remember BYU's last game and how bad they lost to the Utes, but people forget their first two games were on the road against good defensive teams. I think they were drained, emotionally and physically, as it showed last week. UCF's pass defense is ranked #1 in the country, but again thats more of a byproduct of the bad teams they have played. If Heaps can throw for 192 on Texas I don't see him having a problem with the UCF defense.

UCF seems like a team who struggles against teams with a good run defense. FIU has a good rush defense, ranking 34th in the nation, and the Knights fell 17-10. They couldn't get their ground game going to open up anything through the air. UCF ran the ball 28 times against FIU for a combined total of 75 yards, but Godfrey only completed 17/27 passes. FIU was able to shutdown the run game, something I don’t think BYU’s rush defense, which is ranked 72nd, will be able to do. Looking for a Friday night explosion.


Congrats on a huge week Stop, I really think FSU has a great shot at dominating up front here defensively. They have enough depth to limit the effectiveness of Clemson's quick play calling speed and should be keep the tempo relatively under control. They will really need to get consistent pressure on Boyd to be successful, but I think they can make him struggle as this is a MASSIVE step up in defensive class for Clemson compared to what they have seen. Historically these are the games where Clemson has a hard time and I think you found a good match-up. My only concern is that I don't like the Tiger defense all that much, but like you said FSU is pretty banged up and may be very one-dimensional (with an O-line that has struggled). I lean this way too, but will late until later in the week as my feeling is that this number will go up. Good luck bud.
Thanks Jimmy. I agree FSU should be able to dominate the Clemson OL. They looked a bit soft. I really think they will struggle with all the stunts, and disguised blitz that Stoops will throw at them and Tajh Boyd really hasnt impressed me all that much. Clemson is coming off an emotional high after beating Auburn, and I love betting against teams after a big win. They usually come out flat. Clemson is acting like they beat the #1 team in the nation and they feel as if they are on top of the world. Well, the Seminole defense will be rolling into town, hungry and pissed off. The OL looked really bad in person at the game, but the RBs missed a lot of key blocks and the TEs (on Worts pick) ran the wrong routes. He was supposed to get more separation by rolling out more, but he just stopped in the middle of his route. Another time he was supposed to run a delayed route, but didn't and ended up running right into Shaw on his route. The OL needs to get their act together, but it's not all their fault. For some reason the past two years FSU OL started off sloppy, but shored things up around week 3. Im not sold on the young Tiger defense either, but with Death Valley the way it is im sure the crowd will be a factor which will hurt FSU on offense, thus enabling the defense. If Manuel can't go, and that's a REAL possibility, Clint Trickett will get the start. I can see him moving the ball between the 20s on occasion, but failing to convert in the redzone due to his inexperience. Im looking forward to this weekends game. BOL this weekend Jimmy, lookin' forward to rest of your card.

Playing OU last week will be the best prelude to playing Clemson's 'fast' paced offense. OU goes balls to the wall for the entire game, Clemson will seem like slow motion in comparison.
OU's fast paced offense is probably one of the best kept secrets in the NCAAF, they run it to precision. Clemson will try to duplicate what OU did and FSU will make them pay. I don't see their offense as a real threat, Ellington is the only guy who concerns me.

I like this best of luck to you hopefully we can pad our pockets
Yessir, lets pad that pocketbook. Best of luck this weekend Thunder.
 

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Lost a tight one last night, still felt it was the right play. On to Saturday.

2U Virginia -3
1U VT -20 (hate laying DD road chalk)
1U GT -7
2U Oregon -15'

Leans...

Bama -11
LSU -6
Temple +8'
Rutgers -4
 

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Man, GT teased me all day long. They should have covered that damn game, I dont understand how you drop a w-i-i-i-de open TD pass, I just don't. Especially when all your TD catches are like that. I was debating buying the half point, but a push is better than a loss. UGA is scaring me here. Their kicker is atrocious, downright horrible, but it looks like they might squeak out the cover. Going to add floriduh -20, Kentucky hasnt played well and they've played some marginal talent at best. I think the gators DL will be too much too handle and they have the edge in special teams. floriduh wins in a romp.

3U floriduh -20
 

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Played some of my leans, but went 4-3-2 +1U in Week 4 with my picks. Always good to be in the green.
 

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