Lessy's NHL Picks

[Lessy]

I'm new to these forums and relatively new to sports betting in general. I've mostly been picking hockey lately with the NHL and the World Juniors last month which was some easy money.

I figured I'd make a thread with my daily picks and the occasional write-up.


February 3

Chicago Blackhawks -0.5
Regulation Time
2.22

One of my favourite picks is taking the better team on the road. I watch a ton of the Western Conference and especially the Oilers and they're a mediocre team that's not very good on home ice. They're built like a poor man's Chicago and while the Hawks haven't played the greatest hockey lately, they are a good bet to run all over the Oil tonight. I was debating taking the -1.5 but played it conservative with the regulation bet.


Phoenix Coyotes ML
2.25


Phoenix Coyotes/Nashville Predators
Under 5.5

Both teams struggling to score goals lately and neither is an offensive juggernaut in the first place. Pekka Rinne is on fire and one of the best kept secrets in the league and Bryzgalov has been solid of late as well. Combine that with the fact that Nashville has the fewest goals in the Western Conference and I really like this play.

 

[Lessy]

2-1

None of the NHL lines from tonight really jumped at me and I figured I'd take a closer look and do some research on the Olympic qualifying matches being held in the next few days. I find that lesser known International tournaments, particularly those that don't have the best players in the world involved, can present some pretty good looking odds. Last month's World Junior U20 tournament was a prime example as is this. Here's what I'm thinking for tomorrow and the Olympic qualifying games:

Denmark -0.5 vs. France

Germany -2.5 vs. Japan

Ukraine -0.5 vs. Italy

Latvia -2 vs. Hungary

Norway -1 vs. Kazakhstan

Austria -0.5 vs. Slovenia


My biggest play is on Denmark. I took all favourites and a lot of people upon first glance will be wary of the amount of spread. In International hockey there's a ton of goals that separate good teams from bad teams. I'm pretty confident with a lot of these picks and would be pretty disappointed if I didn't manage to go at least 4-2 come tomorrow. I also find that with International hockey the best time to jump on the lines is early on. As the tournament progresses the oddsmakers get a little better when it comes to posting spreads and it gets tricky.

 

[Lessy]

2-1

None of the NHL lines from tonight really jumped at me and I figured I'd take a closer look and do some research on the Olympic qualifying matches being held in the next few days. I find that lesser known International tournaments, particularly those that don't have the best players in the world involved, can present some pretty good looking odds. Last month's World Junior U20 tournament was a prime example as is this. Here's what I'm thinking for tomorrow and the Olympic qualifying games:

Denmark -0.5 vs. France

Germany -2.5 vs. Japan

Ukraine -0.5 vs. Italy

Latvia -2 vs. Hungary

Norway -1 vs. Kazakhstan

Austria -0.5 vs. Slovenia


My biggest play is on Denmark. I took all favourites and a lot of people upon first glance will be wary of the amount of spread. In International hockey there's a ton of goals that separate good teams from bad teams. I'm pretty confident with a lot of these picks and would be pretty disappointed if I didn't manage to go at least 4-2 come tomorrow. I also find that with International hockey the best time to jump on the lines is early on. As the tournament progresses the oddsmakers get a little better when it comes to posting spreads and it gets tricky.

Ended up 3-2-1 with some terrible beats. I was on the right side of every single one of these. Two overtime games where the underdog was massively outshot and outchanced by all accounts killed me. Hopefully I'll have a better day tomorrow with only two games on tap.

This brings my hockey totals to 5-3-1 which is pretty respectable. Looking at some NHL plays tonight and here's what I've got:


Boston Bruins -0.5
Regulation Time 2.05

Ottawa is really struggling to put pucks in the net as has been the norm all year while Boston continues to roll. I'll take the far superior team on the road every day of the week and until the Sens prove they can find a way to get going offensively this is a no-brainer.


St Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers
Under 5.5 2.07

Edmonton's top puck moving defensemen, Lubomir Visnovsky suffered a long-term shoulder injury last game against Chicago. These teams are far from offensive juggernauts to begin with and Mason and Roloson have both played good hockey of late.
San Jose Sharks vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Over 5.5 2.13

Michael Leighton is expected to start against a Shark team that can put up numbers in a hurry. Neither team has scored a whole lot lately but much of Carolina's success lately has revolved around the play of Cam Ward. I'm expecting a bit more of a wide open game here than most and am pretty confident with this pick.

 

[Lessy]

2-1 last night in the NHL brings me to 7-4-1 in hockey plays so far. I didn't post here this morning but I went 4-0 in that Olympic qualifier on the two games this morning playing the spread and over/unders.

I have three for tonight in the NHL:


Columbus/Pittsburgh
Over 5.5 1.833
Wade Dubielewicz gets his first start of the season against a pretty high powered Pittsburgh offense. The Pens haven't been involved in a game with under 6 goals since the All Star break. I like this play to begin with but it was an easy selection when I saw the Jackets starter. Columbus has allowed 11 goals in their past 2 games and this isn't a good matchup for them in my eyes. I fully expect Pittsburgh to walk.

Pittsburgh Penguins
-1.5 2.6
Same reasoning as above. The Jackets are struggling to keep pucks out of their net and they're starting a journeyman goalie tonight in his first start of the season.

New Jersey Devils
-0.5 Regulation Time 1.909
This type of play backfired on me last night as I could have easily been 3-0 if I would have taken the money line. However the Devils are 8-1 in their last 9 and the Thrashers are one of the worst teams in the league.

 

[Lessy]

I'm looking into a few International hockey plays again for tomorrow with the Olympic qualification. Here are my early leans:

Japan vs. Slovenia
It's a little sad that I'm actually going to bet on a game involving these two hockey superpowers. Both teams are absolutely terrible and the Japan ML looks very enticing at 7.73. I don't think they will win but I do think they have a shot and at those odds that's all you need. I also like the under 6.5 a lot at this point. Two terrible teams playing one another usually does not lead to a bunch of goals. Most of the games so far in this tournament have been pretty low scoring to begin with and I have no reason to think that these two teams can put up 7 collectively. Japan got blown out by Germany but only surrendered 30 shots I believe. If they can get half decent goaltending they should have a chance and that's all you can ask for at that ML.

Denmark vs. Kazakhstan
The Kazakhs surprised me a little with their performance on day 1 seeing as how they're missing quite a few key players from the KHL while the Danes just could not finish plays and ended up losing to the French. It will be interesting to see their reaction in this one. Do they throw in the towel because they aren't advancing or do they come back with a statement game. My slight lean at this point would be the Denmark ML but it won't be a strong play if it is a play at all.

Germany vs. Austria
The German's are the class of this tournament in my eyes. However they also have a big rivalry with Austria and these games tend to be relatively close. The Over 5.5 looks a little appealing but I don't think I'll touch the spread of -2 because that's about where it should be. Both teams showed on day 1 they can put up some goals so the over is an interesting bet but it won't be a big one.

Norway vs. France
The Norwegians had a bit of a scare on day 1 as they narrowly defeated Kazakhstan 2-1. However playing at home they are the odds on favourite to win their group and I expect them to do just that. I like the -1.5 spread here for Norway as France was a one hit wonder against Denmark and got a fantastic goaltending performance as they were outshot by a 2:1 margin. I'm also looking into the Under 5.5 with this one simply because the French have a tendency to play tight defensive hockey and trap to keep games relatively close and low scoring.

 

[Lessy]

An early one for Saturday after news out of Edmonton says Shawn Horcoff, Lubomir Visnovsky and Tom Gilbert will all miss tomorrow's game against the Wings. It shouldn't be close and I expect a downright pounding. I follow the Oilers closer than any other team in hockey and let's just say things don't look good for tomorrow's game.

Detroit -1.5

My team totals aren't out yet but it wouldn't surprise me to see them put up a big number with 2 of Edmonton's top 3 defensemen out and a potential rest day for Roloson.

 

[Lessy]

Another 2-1 night bringing me to 9-5-1 with hockey and 6-3 in the NHL. Could have had a 3-0 night but Fleury really stole the show to prevent that game from going over.

Tomorrow's play on the Wings will be a big one. I can't see the Oilers winning that game and I don't anticipate that it'll be close either. Just heard that Roloson will get the start which comes as a bit of a surprise to me but expect him to face 45-50 shots.