Leafs/Caps tonight

[Feddz]

Leafs and Caps both on tail-end of B2B, but Leafs playing 3rd in 4, and they've been pounded prison-style in the 3 games since the Winter Classic, outscored 18-5. Goalies are sick of being left high and dry, are starting to let pucks leak through that they saved early in the year. Will likely have more to say on this game later, but I suggest you hit the Caps hard if you like them, as this line will likely steam with the Leafs playing like such garbage lately. Caps not playing great lately either, but the Leafs are just a mess of epic proportions these days.

Caps -156
Caps -0.5
Caps -1.5 +183
Leafs/Caps O5.5 -121

Sorry not too much time for a long writeup right now, but will hopefully have more later. Just wanted to post something while the lines are still decent. All bets above are worth a good look imo.

 

[skins85]

love the play. Maple leafs on the penalty kill has been awful all year long and the caps power play is the best in the league. with the leafs probably pretty tired after all the games they have played i expect a few pp opportunities for the caps. any idea who is in net for the caps tonight?

 

[goin4broke]

no morning skate today will have to wait til 630 probably to find out who is in net

 

[goin4broke]

neuvirth tonight for caps

 

[goin4broke]

still like the caps feddz its his first start in a long time maybe over will be a good play ?

 

[Feddz]

line has crept up a bit to -160 for the Caps, but I just don't see the Leafs winning this one with the funk they are in.
I mean, we all know the solid thinking about how teams in losing streaks usually start playing a lot better, and deserving to win games, before they finally break through and get the win. Conversely, how sometimes teams on a winning streak start getting complacent and get a few wins they don't really deserve, as the bounces were just going their way. People get shocked when a team really sucking gets a big win, but the truth is usually not that they were due, but that they had been playing a lot better for a few games but couldn't make the W happen until then.
The reason I say all this, is that there will come a point where the Leafs will hit rock bottom, and actually start playing better (hope?), but will still be losing games. Just as for a long stretch this season they were winning games they really didn't deserve to win. But they got bounces, or their goalies stood on their heads. The thing is, the Leafs players seem to genuinely believe that they're a better TEAM than they've been showing lately. And their season-long body of work suggests that they are delusional, and should consider themselves to be very fortunate to be where they are. I watch almost all of every Leaf game, and they just aren't a good team. They have some decent pieces for sure, enough good ones to be a playoff team I think, but I don't think a lot of those players are managed well at all, or put into sensible roles, so the consequence is that they play a terrible team game.

Numbers upcoming.

 

[Feddz]

Neuvirth makes things interesting, as he hasn't started a game since Nov 22 last year. Having said that, it seems like he's generally performed ok in the past after layoffs, although 50 ish days between starts is a loooong time...

 

[skins85]

neuvirth is an interesting choice for this one. still think the caps should be able to have a good amount of success on the power play, small play on caps over 3.5 +125 for me also, with tired legs for the leafs i feel like the caps should be able to get at least 3 tonight-more than likely 4 or 5. on the play with ya, lets cash this.

 

[coffeedrinker]

gl tonight feddz.... caps have every reason to blow the doors open on this one. only thing that gives me some pause is neuvirth...hopefully he will stop the 15 or so shots the leafs muster up ..@)

 

[Feddz]

The Leafs have 7 road wins on the year (7-10-1-3), 2 of which are by shootout. However, in their first 7 road games of the year they were 5-2. Sooo, in their last 13 road games, they have 2 wins, both of which were by shootout. Translation: The Leafs have not won a road game in regulation in their last 13. Overall, the Leafs have 4 regulation wins (10 wins total including OT/SO) in their last 31 games.

The Caps have not been playing great either. They have 13 Home wins all year, but 6 of those are by shootout, which is a pretty big tossup. They only have 2 regulation wins in their last 12 Home games, but have 3 SO wins in that time. Overall, they have just 5 regulation wins in their last 22 games, so this actually doesn't engender a ton of confidence in their ability to run it up and put teams away.

The truth is that when looking at the numbers, to choose a side, both of these teams have been pretty dreadful lately, and without shootout success (which is desperately random from season to season, even with consistent personnel) both teams would deservedly be out of the playoff hunt entirely.

So while I would suggest a small play on the Caps is warranted I would only make it a small play, as taking them in regulation, as bad as the Leafs have been, seems to be a bigger gamble than it's worth. And really, that small play is only because of the Leafs playing just so horrendously of late.

I have to be honest and say that I anticipated unloading on the Caps tonight when I first started breaking this game down. But the Caps are clearly a bit of smoke and mirrors as well, and are probably a team that I should look more closely to fade down the stretch unless they pick things up.

Having said all this, I will likely be making a larger play on the over. Reasons forthcoming.

 

[Feddz]

neuvirth is an interesting choice for this one. still think the caps should be able to have a good amount of success on the power play, small play on caps over 3.5 +125 for me also, with tired legs for the leafs i feel like the caps should be able to get at least 3 tonight-more than likely 4 or 5. on the play with ya, lets cash this.

gl tonight feddz.... caps have every reason to blow the doors open on this one. only thing that gives me some pause is neuvirth...hopefully he will stop the 15 or so shots the leafs muster up ..@)

Yeah - I still have to think there's a chance the Leafs get killed tonight because they're just a trainwreck at the moment, but the Caps really don't blow the doors off many teams this year. Too weak on the back end, I suspect.

 

[goin4broke]

over in this game looks good to me feddz

 

[Feddz]

Why I like the over:

Leafs goaltending has no confidence in the D, and the D deserve it, as they are just a mess in their own zone, and playing scared to make a mistake, which is a lot like that great prevent defence.

Washington's home games this year have averaged just over 6 goals per game all season. In their last 10 games, they've averaged 7.8 goals scored per game. There are a couple of shootout goals in there that don't really count, but we're still looking at a lot of goals. And while 4 of their last 10 have actually stayed under 5.5, they have ALL hit right on 5. Point is: don't expect a 2-1 goalie duel here. More than likely it's a 4-3 type of game.

Washington home PP averages a goal per game. Leafs PK has been the worst in the league for a couple of months.

 

[Feddz]

Looks like the lines are now WAS -165 and O5.5 -122. Neither is really a surprise unfortunately.