Larry Ness' 10* Sun Night NFL PRIME-TIME Oddsmaker’s Error
My 10* PRIME-TIME Oddsmakers’s Error is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can as I look for this heated divisional battle to come right down to the wire. Indianpolis comes to town off a 29-23 win over Chicago last week, while Houston stumbled to a 31-13 loss to the Vikings. Colts’ QB Andrew Luck was solid last week, throwing for 322 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. So far Luck has 1469 yards with ten TD’s to just three INT’s on the season. Keep your eyes on Ty Hilton, he had a huge game last week, finishing with ten catches for 171 yards and a TD. RB Frank Gore also had a good game, going for 75 yards off 14 carries. So far Indianapolis has averaged 27.4 PPG, good for seventh in the league. The defense though has been horrible, allowing 29.6 PPG, ranking the unit 30th out of 32 teams. But clearly that unit catches a break in facing the Texans now one dimensional offense. QB Brock Osweiler had just 184 yards with one TD and one INT last week. For the most part Osweiler has been a disappointment this year, he has 1,133 yards with six TD’s and seven INT’s. Note that the Texans only converted one of 13 third down attempts last Sunday. It’s not surprising to learn that Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL in many offensive categories, averaging just 16.4 PPG. The defense took a step back last week as well, allowing the Vikes to go 7 for 14 on third downs while also unable to force a single turnover. The loss of JJ Watt has clearly had an effect on the unit. I’ll point out that Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while Houston is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after conceding more than 250 total passing yards. I think the oddsmakers have indeed made a mistake here. The Indianapolis offense is firing on all cylinders and it catches a Texans defense that now suddenly lacks an identity. And now the Colts’ defense has a big opportunity to make some strides in facing the turnover prone Osweiler. Grab as many points as you can, play on Indianapolis.
